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AxeElf

Had to Get One In Before Memorial Day

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Behold, Axe Elf's first real-money draft of the season, a $20 team in RTSports' Best-Ball Championship (Grand Prize of $50,000).

10 team snake draft, PPR scoring, start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, Flex, TE, K, DST, 24 rounds...

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (12) 3.10; Daniel Jones (10) 11.10

RB:  Joe Mixon (10) 2.01, Chris Carson (9) 4.01, Raheem Mostert (6) 7.10, Trey Sermon (6) 8.01, Tarik Cohen (10) 14.01, Samaje Perine (10) 18.01, James White (14) 19.10, Latavius Murray (6) 20.01

WR:  Davante Adams (13) 1.10, Robert Woods (11) 5.10, Brandon Aiyuk (6) 6.01, Will Fuller (14) 9.10, Robby Anderson (13) 10.01, Amon-Ra St. Brown (9) 12.01

TE:  Evan Engram (10) 13.10, Dalton Schultz (7) 15.10, C.J. Uzomah (10) 16.01, Hayden Hurst (6) 17.10

K:  Denver Broncos (11) 23.10, San Francisco 49ers (6) 24.01

DST:  Kansas City Chiefs (12) 21.10, Minnesota Vikings (7) 22.01

NOTE:  This is not a "rate my team" post; I know how good it is.  This is a "learn from my team" post.  You're welcome.

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DOA if Rodgers doesn’t want to play. That’s some confidence, I hope they smooth it over and think there’s a good chance of it. I wonder where he would go if there was no Rodgers drama. 5?

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Ok, I got two in before Memorial Day.  I think I like this one even better (not surprising, since I had the 1.4 slot this time instead of the 1.10).  I might be a little weak at RB, though, especially if one of my top 3 go down.  I probly shoulda stuck with James White instead of the flyer on Amon-Ra St. Brown, but it's a minor criticism.

Same guys I drafted in the previous draft in black, new guys in red, and guys that were replaced by the new guys in green.

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (12) 3.4, Aaron Rodgers (13) 8.7 (Robbie Anderson), Daniel Jones (10) 12.7

RB:  Derrick Henry (13) 1.4 (Joe Mixon), Chris Carson (9) 4.7, Mike Davis (6) 6.7 (Raheem Mostert), Tarik Cohen (10) 14.7, Latavius Murray (6) 17.4

WR:  DeAndre Hopkins (12) 2.07 (Davante Adams), CeeDee Lamb (7) 5.04 (Robert Woods), Brandon Aiyuk (6) 7.04, Will Fuller (14) 9.04, Tyler Boyd (10) 10.07 (Trey Sermon), Cole Beasley (7) 13.4 (Samaje Perine), Mike Williams (7) 15.4 (James White), Amon-Ra St. Brown (9) 16.7

TE:  Robert Tonyan (13) 11.4 (Evan Engram), Dalton Schultz (7) 18.7, C.J. Uzomah (10) 19.4, Hayden Hurst (6) 20.7

K:  San Francisco 49ers (6) 23.4, Minnesota Vikings (7) 24.7 (Denver Broncos)

DST:  Kansas City Chiefs (12) 21.4, Minnesota Vikings (7) 22.7

It's like every single change was an upgrade, other than arguably Hopkins for Adams.

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What's gonna make or break this team, if Joe Mixon and Raheem Mostert can stay healthy

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Mixon and Mostert aren’t on team two. Replaced with Henry and M Davis 

i think staying healthy is key for Mixon , I like him a lot more this season than last, and I did tell those that owned him to sale high.  

Mostert won’t match 2019 even if he does indeed stay healthy, to many Rbs that can play on the team.  

 

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3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Mixon and Mostert aren’t on team two. Replaced with Henry and M Davis 

I like team 2 better

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8 hours ago, polecatt said:

What's gonna make or break this team, if Joe Mixon and Raheem Mostert can stay healthy

I drafted Perine and Sermon to insure against that eventuality; but I agree, I think Team 2 might be stronger.

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13 minutes ago, RedzoneMonster said:

Ehh..

Can you describe the thought process that led you to the use of two "h"s instead of one (or three or more)?

But the really fascinating aspect of this post is the abbreviated ellipsis.  It's tantalizing.  Thanks for your contribution.

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I like the reach on Mahomes. Daring, you are! :)

Kidding aside, football season nears.

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46 minutes ago, DrG said:

I like the reach on Mahomes.

I'm normally not one to draft a QB early, but I have the feeling that Mahomes (and the rest of the offense, by extension) is going to do something special this year that's going to make his selection at the 3/4 turn a bargain.

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On 6/2/2021 at 8:13 PM, DrG said:

Kidding aside, football season nears.

It’s still 1/4 of a year away.

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1/6 of the year for the fantasy crew :)

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I know I'm Axe Elf, but after walking away from another Best Ball Championship PPR snake draft with the #1 QB throwing to the #1 WR, and the #2 WR behind him, even Axe Elf is a little giddy.

As long as there are RB values like Mike Davis to be had later, the zero RB thing has a lot of appeal, at least this early in the summer.  People will probably start to get clued in about Davis as we go along.  But for right now, there's a lot of flexibility in the late round drafting positions.  I toyed with the idea of maybe starting with Mixon and Harris, but then I would have been looking at something like Evans and McLaurin as my top 2 WRs--and that's even if I don't draft Mahomes at the 3rd turn!  So I think I made the right decision going WR/WR instead.

My first one was from the #10 drafting position; this one was from #9.

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (12) 3.9, Daniel Jones (10) 12.2, Ryan Fitzpatrick (9) 16.2

RB:  Chris Carson (9) 4.2, Mike Davis (6) 5.9, Raheem Mostert (6) 7.9, Trey Sermon (6) 8.2, Tarik Cohen (10) 13.9, Marlon Mack (14) 15.9

WR:  Tyreek Hill (12) 1.9, Davante Adams (13) 2.2, Kenny Golladay (10) 6.2, Will Fuller (14) 9.9, Robby Anderson (13) 10.2, Mike Williams (7) 14.2, A.J. Green (12) 19.9

TE:  Tyler Higbee (11) 11.9, Jared Cook (7) 17.9, Anthony Firkser (13) 18.2, C.J. Uzomah (10) 20.2

K:  Arizona Cardinals (12) 21.9, Minnesota Vikings (7) 24.2

DST:  Kansas City Chiefs (12) 22.2, Minnesota Vikings (7) 23.9

I was kind of targeting Thielen at 6.2, but when Golladay was still on the board, the appeal was just too great to grab him (knowing I would be targeting Daniel Jones later) to pair the Giants QB/WR stack with my Chiefs QB/WR stack.  Thielen went at 6.7.  So I dunno, Hill, Adams and Thielen would have looked pretty solid on paper, as three of last year's top 10 PPR WRs--but Golladay maybe makes more sense for my team.  I would say that Golladay's upside is approximately equal and reciprocal to Thielen's downside, though--and in a Best Ball format, you're mining for upside wherever possible.

I'm starting to wonder how these sleepers like Davis and Lamb might translate into auction values.  There's very little draft value in paying for the #1 QB in an auction, usually, but with some of the deals that are out there, it might be possible to come away with Mahomes and a pretty credible team behind him.

I'll have to give it a shot...

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Well, as I expected, the sheep are ripe for the shearing in auction leagues right now.  There are so many deep values, you can afford to pay for Mahomes.  And it's a pretty hard bullet to bite, because Mahomes is nowhere NEAR a draft value when you have to spend $25-$30 for him when guys like Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan are going for $5.  Heck, even Herbert went for less than $10... but I wanted to see what would happen "if"... so...

Here's my first auction of the year.  It literally looks like I drafted all my skill players in the first 10 rounds.  Well, maybe not Jones, Engram and Firkser--but hey, I had $7 left over.  If I coulda drafted the WAS and LAR Ds for $1 more than they went ($3 and $4, respectively) I would have THIS team with THOSE defenses and $0 remaining!

10 team PPR Draft Master $20 league...

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (12) $26, Daniel Jones (10) $1

RB:  Aaron Jones (13) $34, Chris Carson (9) $18, Mike Davis (6) $17, Melvin Gordon (11) $9, Nyheim Hines (14) $1

WR:  CeeDee Lamb (7) $20, Robert Woods (11) $17, Adam Thielen (7) $16, Kenny Golladay (10) $12, Brandon Aiyuk (6) $5, Will Fuller (14) $5

TE:  Robert Tonyan (13) $5, Evan Engram (10) $1, Anthony Firkser (13) $1

K:  Arizona Cardinals (12) $1, Minnesota Vikings (7) $1

DST:  Chicago Bears (10) $1, Minnesota Vikings (7) $1

Remaining:  $7

The only sticky wicket is having two of my three TEs with the same bye, but it was either Firkser or Uzomah for my third, and Uzomah shared the Week 10 bye with Engram, so it was kind of six to one, half-dozen to the other.  And by that time I should be winning by way more points than a TE scores in a week, anyway...

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I'm assuming it was you Axe Elf but I could be wrong. Just finished a best ball draft on Yahoo and one of the teams drafting was Axe Elf. So was that you? Man, any good rb's seem to get gobbled up and disappear real quick.  Even with 1 pt. per reception the backs.surely go quicker than the receivers.  I'm sure that there's more good reliable WR's than there are RB's. I have done a few there and some of my teams I thought were pretty good and that I had drafted good but  my weekly and season projections were abysmal,lol. Oh well, at least I don't.have to fool with setting a lineup each week.

 

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1 hour ago, DocNiner said:

I'm assuming it was you Axe Elf but I could be wrong. Just finished a best ball draft on Yahoo and one of the teams drafting was Axe Elf. So was that you? Man, any good rb's seem to get gobbled up and disappear real quick.  Even with 1 pt. per reception the backs.surely go quicker than the receivers.  I'm sure that there's more good reliable WR's than there are RB's. I have done a few there and some of my teams I thought were pretty good and that I had drafted good but  my weekly and season projections were abysmal,lol. Oh well, at least I don't.have to fool with setting a lineup each week.

LOL!  Yeah, coincidentally enough, that WAS me... sort of.

I was curious if Yahoo had opened their private cash leagues yet, since those are my favorite (no rake!), and thought I would see what their best ball drafts were like this year.  I'd done one free one last year, but didn't really like them much.  So I signed up for a free one today, and then did a few other things while waiting for it to fill.  I just assumed there would be some kind of notification when the league was filled and the draft was starting, but by the time I noticed it had started, it was already in the third round!

The autodrafter had already taken Barkley for me at 1.5 instead of the Zeke I would have chosen myself, and then it picked Diggs for me in the second round, where I would have selected Davante Adams.  I joined the draft just in time to watch it take Keenan Allen for me in the third, so no Mahomes either.

So since it was already someone else's team, and nothing like an expertly-drafted Axe Elf team, I just abandoned it to autodraft the rest of the team, too.  So it was me, but it really wasn't ME.

One thing I don't like about these Yahoo best ball drafts is that you can't go back and look at the draft itself for analysis.  You can see the rosters, but you don't know when any particular player was picked.

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I don't know if you have ever heard of Hofstadter's Law, named for Douglas Hofstadter who created it in his book, "Godel, Escher, Bach," but it goes like this:  "It always takes longer than you think, even when you take Hofstadter's Law into account."

I suspected that a 12-team managed league auction would go quite a bit differently than the 10-team best-ball auctions I have done thus far, but at this point, I think I can put on paper Axe Elf's Law:  "It's quite a bit more different than you think, even when you take Axe Elf's Law into account."

Obviously, more teams mean higher demand for players, especially premium players.  Not having to pre-cover byes and the ability to manage depth during the season means even more demand for premium players.  But I figured I could at least get Mahomes, Henry and Lamb, and let the chips fall from there.  Mahomes went smoothly enough; I snapped him up for $28 on his first-round nomination (I had budgeted him for $30)--and Josh Allen later went for $33!  But Lamb also came out early, and several people wanted him, and while I had hoped to secure his services for under $25, I ended up paying $31 for him!  That's the 9th-highest price that was paid for a WR, so basically ended up getting no discount on my "bargain" WR.  And when Henry was nominated, I was prepared to pay $55, maybe upwards of $60 for him, but when he climbed toward the mid-$60s, I had to let him go for $63.

So yeah, I kind of found the limit to drafting Mahomes.  Spending for him hasn't really hurt me in the best-ball snake and auction drafts I've done--but in this managed league auction, it cost me.  If I had hitched my wagon to Daniel Jones for $4, I probably could have drafted Henry--or at least been able to snag another $15-$20 WR.  I was absolutely steaming when Adam Thielen went for $14, but at that point I still thought maybe I could swing both Golladay and Brandin Cooks behind Lamb--and Thielen shares a Week 7 bye with Lamb--but then Golladay went for $24, leaving me only $3 for Cooks--if I wanted to pay $1 for all the rest of my players.  (And then I went and loaded up my bench with Week 7 byes anyway, lol.)

Funny thing is, I could have drafted Cooks for $3, but my timing was bad.  There was another team that had a $3 max bid, and a couple rounds later, he nominated Cooks himself for the full $3--and it got through!  There were several other players with more money, but I guess none of them thought Cooks was worth $4.  If I had been the one to nominate Cooks for $3, I would have been the one who got him--but I was just trying to wait it out until more people were almost out of money.  Of course, if I had blown my wad on Cooks, I wouldn't have been able to land Jared Cook at TE or handcuff Chris Carson with Penny, so I guess it's all good.  I'd probably like the team a little better with Cooks instead of Hilton/Williams as my WR3, but then I'd probly have someone like Tarik Cohen or Marlon Mack for my RB5 instead of Penny, and maybe Anthony Firkser instead of Jared Cook.

So I'm not entirely pleased with this first effort, but there's lots of team management to be done between now and the Championship game.

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (12) $28, Matt Ryan (6) $1

RB:  Aaron Jones (13) $45, Chris Carson (9) $35, Mike Davis (6) $22, Rashaad Penny (9) $2, Latavius Murray (6) $1

WR:  CeeDee Lamb (7) $31, Kenny Golladay (10) $24, T.Y. Hilton (14) $1, Mike Williams (7) $1, Gabriel Davis (7) $1

TE:  Jared Cook (7) $2, C.J. Uzomah (10) $1

K:  Matt Prater (12) $1

DST:  Los Angeles Rams (11) $4

REMAINING:  $0

For the record, this is a 12-team PPR league, with 1 pt. per 20 yards passing instead of 25, start 2RB/2WR/1Flex.

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