***Wagering thread***

[bostonlager 2,664]

Lance Lynn is awesome.

[BeachGuy23 642]

Reading a lot about the wind tonight.  Under is getting squeezed.  Wonder if this is one of those contrarian play times?

Let be Denver to cover a 3.5 pt spread and go over 48.  Something like that.

[listen2me 23 1,825]

22 minutes ago, BeachGuy23 said:

Reading a lot about the wind tonight.  Under is getting squeezed.  Wonder if this is one of those contrarian play times?

Let be Denver to cover a 3.5 pt spread and go over 48.  Something like that.

Denver sucks but people aren't paying attention if they think Chiefs cover spreads easily.  I believe they are 12-13 last year and this year combined.  That said I don't think Chiefs are among the top 3 public plays this week.  I could be wrong though.  

[listen2me 23 1,825]

It may have been prior to last week but I read favs and dogs were dead even.   

Newbie gamblers think big favorites are the ones holding up the favorites side to .500.  I doubt it.   

Dogs cover a lot, any new gambler only bets favorites.   Or very short dogs.  

[BeachGuy23 642]

3 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Denver sucks but people aren't paying attention if they think Chiefs cover spreads easily.  I believe they are 12-13 last year and this year combined.  That said I don't think Chiefs are among the top 3 public plays this week.  I could be wrong though.  

I read that the chiefs when 7 point or more favorites only cover like 40% of the time.

Plus Thursday games are notoriously sloppy. 

[listen2me 23 1,825]

1 minute ago, BeachGuy23 said:

I read that the chiefs when 7 point or more favorites only cover like 40% of the time.

Plus Thursday games are notoriously sloppy. 

Wouldn't shock me.  They have a good mix of blowouts and randomly closer games than expected.   Everyone loves to bet the Chiefs no matter the line because they have generally been the best team in the league for a few years.  

I think Denver is a mess and Chiefs need a get right spot.  

Will not bet a side tonight.    May not bet it at all.  Have my eye on a couple Sunday.  I will post when I actually get to the window.  

[BeenHereBefore 1,454]

KC sucks at covering and specially high spreads, will be tons of money on KC. This one doesn't look to hard to see what the right side to bet on is.

[BeachGuy23 642]

53 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

KC sucks at covering and specially high spreads, will be tons of money on KC. This one doesn't look to hard to see what the right side to bet on is.

Denver is really really bad though. Made the Jets and Bears look like offensive juggernauts. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,454]

4 minutes ago, BeachGuy23 said:

Denver is really really bad though. Made the Jets and Bears look like offensive juggernauts. 

True and with that said you have to wonder why the spread isn't higher. Posters on here are also mentioning that the weather maybe bad, so that could help Denver.

[Hawkeye21 2,381]

If it seems to obvious then it’s probably the opposite of what you think. Denver is probably the smart bet. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

This wind could fock my plays. 

[seafoam1 2,799]

3 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

This wind could fock my plays. 

They just said on the telecast that "it's not too windy". I don't know who to believe because all the weather reports were saying it was going to be really windy. Do dumb.

But good luck. 

[seafoam1 2,799]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye21 said:

If it seems to obvious then it’s probably the opposite of what you think. Denver is probably the smart bet. 

I'm taking Denver plus the points. I don't feel all that confident about it. But whatever.

[bostonlager 2,664]

Fresno State will be starting Logan Fife at QB - 4 TDs/8 INTs in his career and will be without number 1 WR Erik Brooks

Utah State +4 

[mattman7168 39]

On 10/9/2023 at 6:08 PM, bostonlager said:

...Find all the 1.5, 2, and 2.5 underdogs (tease these up). Then find all the 7.5, 8, and 8.5 favorites (tease these down). Mix and match them all in to 2-team, 6-point teasers. Not every single one will hit, but over the course of the season you will turn a profit. I did it yesterday with IND, HOU, NO, and NYJ and it was an easy 6 units.

To clarify for my understanding, do you mean for the 1.5, 2, and 2.5 underdogs they get teased up to 7.5, 8, and 8.5?

And the 7.5, 8, and 8.5 favorites get teased down to 1.5, 2 and 2.5?

If so, I tried doing this with NCAAF and only Kansas/Oklahoma State game allowed me to tease up to +8.5 from +2.5. Notre Dame vs USC has ND +2  only allowed up to +7.5. Missouri is +2.5 vs Kentucky but only allowed to tease up to +7.

I am on Draft Kings.

[bostonlager 2,664]

Just now, mattman7168 said:

To clarify for my understanding, do you mean for the 1.5, 2, and 2.5 underdogs they get teased up to 7.5, 8, and 8.5?

And the 7.5, 8, and 8.5 favorites get teased down to 1.5, 2 and 2.5?

If so, I tried doing this with NCAAF and only Kansas/Oklahoma State game allowed me to tease up to +8.5 from +2.5. Notre Dame vs USC has ND +2  only allowed up to +7.5. Missouri is +2.5 vs Kentucky but only allowed to tease up to +7.

I am on Draft Kings.

Yes, this is correct and it does not work for college football, only the NFL. 

DK are asssholes and they block you from playing these teasers.You will need to find another book. FD will allow you, but the juice is -133. Way too expensive. You need to be in the -120 range.

[BeachGuy23 642]

5 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Yes, this is correct and it does not work for college football, only the NFL. 

DK are asssholes and they block you from playing these teasers.You will need to find another book. FD will allow you, but the juice is -133. Way too expensive. You need to be in the -120 range.

You can change lines on DK.  Doing so crushes your odds but you can do it.

[mattman7168 39]

Just now, BeachGuy23 said:

You can change lines on DK.  Doing so crushes your odds but you can do it.

Yes, on DK it let me change the lines but not the full 6 point up or down.

[bostonlager 2,664]

Just now, mattman7168 said:

Yes, on DK it let me change the lines but not the full 6 point up or down.

Exactly, which defeats the purpose. You need to be able to push through the 3 and the 7 completely. 

[BeachGuy23 642]

Just now, bostonlager said:

Exactly, which defeats the purpose. You need to be able to push through the 3 and the 7 completely. 

What’s the theory behind this line teasing?

I’m very conservative and usually move lines to make the odds worse.  Then I’ll use one of the many DK odds improvements to bring the payout back in line.

[bostonlager 2,664]

2 minutes ago, mattman7168 said:

Yes, on DK it let me change the lines but not the full 6 point up or down.

I am going to start experimenting on FD with the 5 point teasers to see if they will be winners. They prices those at -110. 

[BeachGuy23 642]

DK also usually has daily no risk same game parlays.  Those are where I push things looking for a good payoff.

[bostonlager 2,664]

4 minutes ago, BeachGuy23 said:

What’s the theory behind this line teasing?

I’m very conservative and usually move lines to make the odds worse.  Then I’ll use one of the many DK odds improvements to bring the payout back in line.

approximately 40% of all NFL games dating back to 1995 end in a final point differential between 3 and 7. Pushing through those numbers gives you a huge advantage. 

[Fireballer 2,639]

17 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I am going to start experimenting on FD with the 5 point teasers to see if they will be winners. They prices those at -110. 

Any theory on NBA teasers?  

[bostonlager 2,664]

5 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Any theory on NBA teasers?  

I will take a look and see if I can come up with something, but not that I know of. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

If I'm not mistaken, NBA teasers are typically 4 points? A game that scores a total 200- that's not enough movement to gain an advantage. 

[BeachGuy23 642]

2 minutes ago, RogerDodger said:

What's the deal with you being a poll smoker?  

What is wrong with you people?  We're having a friendly chat about gambling and you have to bring your homophobia into it.

Make better choices friend. 

[BeachGuy23 642]

24 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

approximately 40% of all NFL games dating back to 1995 end in a final point differential between 3 and 7. Pushing through those numbers gives you a huge advantage. 

Oh, got it.  That makes tons of sense.

Thanks!

[BeachGuy23 642]

29 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

approximately 40% of all NFL games dating back to 1995 end in a final point differential between 3 and 7. Pushing through those numbers gives you a huge advantage. 

Last question, you mentioned mixing and matching these teasers.  Are you talking about playing two game parlays with these?

[bostonlager 2,664]

On 10/10/2023 at 8:37 PM, bostonlager said:

Kilroy - I just placed a few bets for week 6 and I didn't care who the teams were, I was focused on the numbers. At bovada right now we have the following:

Bears +2.5

Texans +1.5

Redskins +2.5

Chargers +1.5

 

4 minutes ago, BeachGuy23 said:

Last question, you mentioned mixing and matching these teasers.  Are you talking about playing two game parlays with these?

 

For the above I played these combinations. 6 separate 2 team teasers. Any games that fit the 1.5 -2.5 or 7.5-8.5. I will mix and match all possible combos. 

Bears/Texans

Bears/Redskins

Bears/Chargers

Texans/Redskins

Texans/Chargers

Redskins/Chargers

[BeachGuy23 642]

So teasers are good?

[Fireballer 2,639]

11 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

 

 

For the above I played these combinations. 6 separate 2 team teasers. Any games that fit the 1.5 -2.5 or 7.5-8.5. I will mix and match all possible combos. 

Bears/Texans

Bears/Redskins

Bears/Chargers

Texans/Redskins

Texans/Chargers

Redskins/Chargers

You ever try round robin with these?  I wonder if you get any better odds?  RRs are just confusing to figure out potential payouts.  I’ll do some math later.  I was up all night and work and gotta catch some zzzzz

[bostonlager 2,664]

3 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

You ever try round robin with these?  I wonder if you get any better odds?  RRs are just confusing to figure out potential payouts.  I’ll do some math later.  I was up all night and work and gotta catch some zzzzz

RR is essentially what I do, but enter them manually. Does the actual RR feature give points like a teaser?

[BeachGuy23 642]

I always lose. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

It's going to be a good week. 

[mattman7168 39]

2 hours ago, bostonlager said:

RR is essentially what I do, but enter them manually. Does the actual RR feature give points like a teaser?

I used RR for my picks, exactly the same teams you posted above but also added Chargers for Monday night for 5 teams total. I set the points +6 higher in the alternative spread tab. In the bet slip I can either do as a single 5 team parlay or the RR options give me 2 team combos, 3 team, 4 team or all combos. All combos came out to 26 different bets, which I did for $1, which came out to $26 total. Total profit if all hit is $62ish. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

8 minutes ago, mattman7168 said:

I used RR for my picks, exactly the same teams you posted above but also added Chargers for Monday night for 5 teams total. I set the points +6 higher in the alternative spread tab. In the bet slip I can either do as a single 5 team parlay or the RR options give me 2 team combos, 3 team, 4 team or all combos. All combos came out to 26 different bets, which I did for $1, which came out to $26 total. Total profit if all hit is $62ish. 

Cool, I will have to take a look at that. 

Note: The rules for these plays technically say to exclude teams where the game total is 50 points or more. I went ahead and played the Chargers too, but technically we are supposed to lay off that game. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

10 minutes ago, mattman7168 said:

I used RR for my picks, exactly the same teams you posted above but also added Chargers for Monday night for 5 teams total. I set the points +6 higher in the alternative spread tab. In the bet slip I can either do as a single 5 team parlay or the RR options give me 2 team combos, 3 team, 4 team or all combos. All combos came out to 26 different bets, which I did for $1, which came out to $26 total. Total profit if all hit is $62ish. 

Should only be 6 bets. I think they are making them 2, 3, and 4 team teasers. You can still do that, but it isn't part of the system. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

11 minutes ago, mattman7168 said:

I used RR for my picks, exactly the same teams you posted above but also added Chargers for Monday night for 5 teams total. I set the points +6 higher in the alternative spread tab. In the bet slip I can either do as a single 5 team parlay or the RR options give me 2 team combos, 3 team, 4 team or all combos. All combos came out to 26 different bets, which I did for $1, which came out to $26 total. Total profit if all hit is $62ish. 

my bet ticket looks like this:

Bears/Texans

Bears/Redskins

Bears/Chargers

Texans/Redskins

Texans/Chargers

Redskins/Chargers

[mattman7168 39]

3 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Should only be 6 bets. I think they are making them 2, 3, and 4 team teasers. You can still do that, but it isn't part of the system. 

I am still learning all the rules. Thanks for being patient explaining it to us!

I figured I'd see what happens with all combos. Wasn't too much to spend and I should get a fair amount of hits with it. (I hope)

2 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

my bet ticket looks like this:

Bears/Texans

Bears/Redskins

Bears/Chargers

Texans/Redskins

Texans/Chargers

Redskins/Chargers

Well I'm sure I've got those combos covered too