***Wagering thread***

[Fireballer 2,394]

Neb/Ill 1H over 20.  

[bostonlager 2,472]

11 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Neb/Ill 1H over 20.  

In at o 21 +110

[Horseman 1,528]

@bostonlager I checked the other thread and Eminesence is back.  Hes picking sides by going opposite of the consensus in the shark pool threads. That's kind of brilliant actually.  I'm going to add up his props and see how well he did last week. 

[bostonlager 2,472]

2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

@bostonlager I checked the other thread and Eminesence is back.  Hes picking sides by going opposite of the consensus in the shark pool threads. That's kind of brilliant actually.  I'm going to add up his props and see how well he did last week. 

I was one of the few that actually liked him. The kid isn't stupid. 

[bostonlager 2,472]

2 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Neb/Ill 1H over 20.  

[bostonlager 2,472]

I'm going to roll with Eminence - Dallas ML +170

[Horseman 1,528]

4 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I was one of the few that actually liked him. The kid isn't stupid. 

5-2 sides and 7-12 props last week.  He called the Bears yesterday.  Hes good at public sentiment and reading Vegas for the spread.  

Quote

I am 100% on board with Rams +4.5. Eagles are 4-0. They are not going 16-0. They will lose to somebody and an EAST COAST TEAM travelling to the WEST COAST is one of my favorite fades.

Eagles pass defense has been a sieve all year, I think Rams can win outright. I think that one is less square than the other two picks, as there will be plenty of people willing to bet Eagles -4.5. It's a great line for Vegas, too good to be true. "Only' 4.5 points? The public bettors say

 

 

Quote

 

With that said, my favorite play this weekend is Dallas ML, +154. Solely based on the comments in this game thread:

Sunday Night Football *** 49ers vs Cowboys *** (+3.5, 45)

 

 

Nobody in that thread picked Dallas and are talking like the 49ers will win by 7 to 14 points. But Vegas says the game will be decided by a FG. Considering it is SNF, I smell an upset cooking. Vegas is not trying very hard to get you not to bet on San Francisco. In fact, with a line like that they are encouraging it.

If they wanted action on the Cowboys, they would have set the line at +5.5 or +6. But that's the whole point, imo, they don't want Cowboys action. They want everyone on San Francisco and I'm not falling for it.



Cowboys ML, +154 (Cowboys +3.5 if you're a *****). BUNKER BUSTER!!!

Quote

 

 

[bostonlager 2,472]

2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

5-2 sides and 7-12 props last week.  He called the Bears yesterday.  Hes good at public sentiment and reading Vegas for the spread.  

 

 

 

Nobody in that thread picked Dallas and are talking like the 49ers will win by 7 to 14 points. But Vegas says the game will be decided by a FG. Considering it is SNF, I smell an upset cooking. Vegas is not trying very hard to get you not to bet on San Francisco. In fact, with a line like that they are encouraging it.

If they wanted action on the Cowboys, they would have set the line at +5.5 or +6. But that's the whole point, imo, they don't want Cowboys action. They want everyone on San Francisco and I'm not falling for it.



Cowboys ML, +154 (Cowboys +3.5 if you're a *****). BUNKER BUSTER!!!

 

 

I'll play along for a while and see how it goes. Does he still crush the NBA?

 

[Horseman 1,528]

6 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I'm going to roll with Eminence - Dallas ML +170

I'm too emotionally invested. Sometimes I bet the other team just so I win either way.  I'll wait to see how good UFC goes.

[Horseman 1,528]

7 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

 

I'll play along for a while and see how it goes. Does he still crush the NBA?

 

I lost track and I cant remember my password (at work) to check his posts. 

Beavers is ok and hes on ATL-2.0. 

Dont know who KSB is, but, fade that guy.  

Chainsaw is driving around the country living in his van.  Love that guy. 

[seafoam1 1,879]

NFL - Think I'll go with a couple road favorites this week. Teams going out west no less. Kind of risky but I trust the talent to win out here. 

Cin -3 at Arizona

Phi -4 at Rams

And one underdog

Green Bay +1.5 at Raiders

[Horseman 1,528]

9 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

NFL - Think I'll go with a couple road favorites this week. Teams going out west no less. Kind of risky but I trust the talent to win out here. 

Cin -3 at Arizona

Phi -4 at Rams

And one underdog

Green Bay +1.5 at Raiders

I like the CIN one. I wouldnt touch the other two with Kupp and Geropolo back.  I'd fade the other way on those two balancing out.  

[bostonlager 2,472]

Sooners +5.5

[seafoam1 1,879]

36 minutes ago, Horseman said:

I like the CIN one. I wouldnt touch the other two with Kupp and Geropolo back.  I'd fade the other way on those two balancing out.  

Last time I saw Garoppolo, he threw 3 terrible picks. He had over 300 yards on 44 attempts passing but they only scored 18 points. Kenny Pickett beat him for God's sake. 

And with Philthy I'm banking on their awesome run game and their pass rush. Rams have a pretty bad run game so philthy can tee up against the pass. I bet Staffard throws 2 picks. He's got 5 already . Rams have covered 4 of their 4 games against the spread but that changes this week I bet.

 

[bostonlager 2,472]

Jacksonville +5.5

They stayed over there. Bills off a big win and long travel is perfect for a letdown 

[Fireballer 2,394]

10 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Jacksonville +5.5

They stayed over there. Bills off a big win and long travel is perfect for a letdown 

Yes

[Fireballer 2,394]

1 hour ago, Horseman said:

@bostonlager I checked the other thread and Eminesence is back.  Hes picking sides by going opposite of the consensus in the shark pool threads. That's kind of brilliant actually.  I'm going to add up his props and see how well he did last week. 

Is there a betting thread over there?  I didn’t see one readily jumping out.  

[bostonlager 2,472]

4 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Is there a betting thread over there?  I didn’t see one readily jumping out.  

https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/official-ffa-wagering-thread-merry-christmas.752111/page-1189
 

 

[Fireballer 2,394]

@Horseman I have no idea who any of these people are, but this Green/Dawson match jumped out at me. A book is actually making a dog longer when they are getting almost all the money and bets?  What’s the outlook on this match?

 

[bostonlager 2,472]

Rangers/O's o 7.5. 

 

 

[bostonlager 2,472]

5 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

@Horseman I have no idea who any of these people are, but this Green/Dawson match jumped out at me. A book is actually making a dog longer when they are getting almost all the money and bets?  What’s the outlook on this match?

 

He made some picks a page back and looks like he has Dawson in a parlay. 

[bostonlager 2,472]

Kentucky +14.5

Notre Dame - 6.5

[seafoam1 1,879]

I'm going a little crazy on college football today. This is about the time of year I start betting NCAAF 

All against the spread.

Cal

San Jose State

Wyoming

Texas

Ole Miss

Troy

Florida State

Marshall

Ohio State

LSU

[Fireballer 2,394]

Had to throw some at Ohio St live ML.  -160

[Horseman 1,528]

1 hour ago, Fireballer said:

@Horseman I have no idea who any of these people are, but this Green/Dawson match jumped out at me. A book is actually making a dog longer when they are getting almost all the money and bets?  What’s the outlook on this match?

 

Trap.  Dawson is the better grappler and hasn't lost a fight since 2016, before the UFC.  But like you said number is too large. Using Dawson in a parlay with Dober and Pyfer.  

[bostonlager 2,472]

Buffalo at Jacksonville in China

Christian Kirk o 5.5 receptions - taking a chance here because its +120 

James Cook u 54.5 rushing

Travis Etienne o 64.5 rushing

Josh Allen o 33.5 pass att

[bostonlager 2,472]

Houston at Atlanta

Bijan Robinson o 78.5 rushing

Nico Collins o 57.5 receiving

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Gus Edwards o 46.5 rushing

Lamar Jackson o 45.5 rushing

Najee Harris u 51.5 rushing

Carolina at Detroit

Miles Sanders u 44.5 rushing

Miles Sanders u 64.6 r+r

Jared Goff u 243.5 passing

Tennessee at Indianapolis 

DeAndre Hopkins o 53.5 receiving

DeAndre Hopkins o 4.5 receptions

[seafoam1 1,879]

19 hours ago, seafoam1 said:

I'm going a little crazy on college football today. This is about the time of year I start betting NCAAF 

All against the spread.

Cal

San Jose State

Wyoming

Texas

Ole Miss

Troy

Florida State

Marshall

Ohio State

LSU

And after all these bets, I came out ahead $9. Glad I threw some money at half of Arizona game. +8.5. 

I at least won $60 on the day. That was a pretty entertaining second half. The only football I watched all day.

[bostonlager 2,472]

Cincinnati at Arizona

 Josh Dobbs o 21.5 rushing

Zach Ertz o 3.5 receptions

Zach Ertz o 29.5 receiving

[Fireballer 2,394]

Engram over 4.5

Diggs 60+/Thielen 40+ parlay

[bostonlager 2,472]

NY Jets at Denver

Zach Wilson o 207.5 passing

Russell Wilson u 225.5 passing

Garrett Wilson o 4.5 receptions - expensive, but Zach is looking his way a lot. 

Dallas at San Francisco 

Dak Prescott o 34.5 pass att

Jake Ferguson o 3.5 receptions

Brandon Aiyuk o 56.5 receiving

[bostonlager 2,472]

2 team teaser with all combinations 

Indianapolis +8.5

New Orleans +7.5

NY Jets +8.5

Houston +8.5

[Patented Phil 830]

If this Jacksonville / Bills score holds up, Vegas is going to make a killing.

Going into the game 93% of the public money was on the Bills laying 5.5.  Haven’t seen a public number that high in a long time.  “If it smells like cologne, leave it alone.”

[bostonlager 2,472]

18 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Buffalo at Jacksonville in China

Christian Kirk o 5.5 receptions - taking a chance here because its +120 

James Cook u 54.5 rushing

Travis Etienne o 64.5 rushing

Josh Allen o 33.5 pass att

 

8 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Houston at Atlanta

Bijan Robinson o 78.5 rushing

Nico Collins o 57.5 receiving

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Gus Edwards o 46.5 rushing

Lamar Jackson o 45.5 rushing

Najee Harris u 51.5 rushing

Carolina at Detroit

Miles Sanders u 44.5 rushing

Miles Sanders u 64.6 r+r

Jared Goff u 243.5 passing

Tennessee at Indianapolis 

DeAndre Hopkins o 53.5 receiving

DeAndre Hopkins o 4.5 receptions

Early window: 11-3

Week 5: 13-5

Would have been nice if short bus Lamar scratched out 1 more yard. 

[kilroy69 1,005]

I have a fantastic idea for you all. Ask me about your bets. Whatever I say. Do the opposite. 

[bostonlager 2,472]

21 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

I have a fantastic idea for you all. Ask me about your bets. Whatever I say. Do the opposite. 

Post your plays. If you're bad enough, we will fade you. 

[bostonlager 2,472]

Who is this Trey McBride homo stealing targets from Ertz?

 

[bostonlager 2,472]

9 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Cincinnati at Arizona

 Josh Dobbs o 21.5 rushing

Zach Ertz o 3.5 receptions

Zach Ertz o 29.5 receiving

 

7 hours ago, bostonlager said:

NY Jets at Denver

Zach Wilson o 207.5 passing

Russell Wilson u 225.5 passing

Garrett Wilson o 4.5 receptions - expensive, but Zach is looking his way a lot. 

Afternoon was a dumpster fire. 

Week 5 so far: 14-10

[BeachGuy23 531]

I'm thinking that Dak goes over his rushing number.  Cee Dee goes over his receive prop.  Aiyuk goes over his receiving prop.

[seafoam1 1,879]

On 10/6/2023 at 10:45 PM, Horseman said:

I like the CIN one. I wouldnt touch the other two with Kupp and Geropolo back.  I'd fade the other way on those two balancing out.  

Got Philly, Cinci, and a Philly and Cinci parlay. Added Detroit -10 and got that one. 

Threw some money on San Fran -3.5 tonight and had already had my bet in for GB +1.5 tomorrow.

Lost this morning on Buffalo -5.5 but had the under 47.5 as well so that eased the loss some. 

Pretty good day overall.