***Wagering thread***

[Gutterboys Flip Flops 110]

3 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

I like some of those but man to many for me to keep track of.

Last game of the season. I’m letting it fly 

[BeenHereBefore 1,506]

5 minutes ago, Gutterboys Flip Flops said:

Last game of the season. I’m letting it fly 

I get ya and do that to for the SB and well take some of yours thanks. I always do the coin toss as well.

[cyclone24 1,913]

Hit my parlay, but man Siakam does not pass the ball at all. Lucked out.

 

[BeenHereBefore 1,506]

4 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

Hit my parlay, but man Siakam does not pass the ball at all. Lucked out.

 

Congrats!

[WhiteWonder 2,723]

2 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

hoping the Knicks keep it close without Brunson.

Luka 30+ pts
Luka 3+ 3's
DiVincenzo 25+ pts
DiVincenzo 4+ 3's
Hart  o 8.5 rebounds

James 20+ pts
Jokic 25+ pts
Jokic 10+ reb
Davis 10+ reb

Hit all the ny/dal props. So I assume tonight will be a Jamal Murray scoring night and Joker will be all about the assists .  Although to be fair I played almost every prop down 

[Horseman 2,438]

2 hours ago, Gutterboys Flip Flops said:

Harrison Butker o 1.5 FG

Patrick Mahomes u 0.5 INTs

Patrick Mahomes o 36.5 pass att

Brock Purdy o 11.5 rushing

George Kittle o 46.5 receiving

Noah Gray o 12.5 receiving

Noah Gray o 1.5 receptions

Deebo Samuel u 17.5 rushing

Rasheed Rice u 6.5 receptions

Rasheed Rice u 67.5 receiving

Christian McCaffrey o 18.5 rush att

Isaiah Pacheco o 67.5 rushing

Hmmm

Mahomes o1.5TD +150

Mahomes o262.5

Mahomes o26.5rush

Samuel o2.5rush

MSV o19.5

Kittle o3.5

Purdy o0.5int

C Jone sack

Plugged them several days ago, not sure how lines have changed. 

[Horseman 2,438]

1 hour ago, BeenHereBefore said:

I like some of those but man to many for me to keep track of.

Serious Clark? Biggest day of the year. I'll try to post specials tomorrow.  Usually have 50+ bets spreadsheeted with beginning middle end to keep track of. 

[Horseman 2,438]

Rice unders is interesting.  I think Pacheco r+r. What's it at?

[BeenHereBefore 1,506]

2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Serious Clark? Biggest day of the year. I'll try to post specials tomorrow.  Usually have 50+ bets spreadsheeted with beginning middle end to keep track of. 

Haha and around 6 or 8 is what I do but cool to see your picks.

[Horseman 2,438]

Just when you think SB betting cant get anymore rediculous.  89 Taylor Swift props up. 

[Mookz 1,341]

2 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

I get ya and do that to for the SB and well take some of yours thanks. I always do the coin toss as well.

Do you have a lean on heads vs. tails this year? 

[BeenHereBefore 1,506]

Just now, Mookz said:

Do you have a lean on heads vs. tails this year? 

Even years I always go heads.

[Horseman 2,438]

WTF. I think SB just limited me on prop specials.

[Mookz 1,341]

10 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Even years I always go heads.

Tailing 

[BeenHereBefore 1,506]

1 minute ago, Mookz said:

Tailing 

Lol.

[cyclone24 1,913]

5 hours ago, cyclone24 said:

Yeah that’s why I watered it down a little bit with just 10. 
 

And because I’m bored, I’m gonna play Haliburton 8 assists…curry three three-pointers and Siakam two assist. I’ll probably play the FanDuel boost later with LeBron in Jokic to score 20 and 6 assists.

I don’t really know why I bet. I bet very little because I don’t like to lose but then I don’t really need the money either. I don’t say I really enjoy it either. Probably the dumbest hobby. 

Fandel boost hit as well. Needed it. Had two straight days of getting my ass kicked.

[BeenHereBefore 1,506]

8 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

FD No Sweat SGP Nuggets vs Lakers

$10 to win $57.12

L. James O 24.5 points

M. Porter JR O 14.5 points

M. Porter JR O 6.5 rebounds

I like it but if I would lose the $10 bet I will use on the SB

That worked and they can keep their sweat.

[Gutterboys Flip Flops 110]

7 hours ago, Horseman said:

Serious Clark? Biggest day of the year. I'll try to post specials tomorrow.  Usually have 50+ bets spreadsheeted with beginning middle end to keep track of. 

Please post if you get time. 

[Gutterboys Flip Flops 110]

9 hours ago, Horseman said:

Rice unders is interesting.  I think Pacheco r+r. What's it at?

49ers weakness on D is run game. I took Pacheco over and Rice unders. 

[Horseman 2,438]

There are some bonker props out there.  Topless first Jason K, Taylor or Olivia.  A sure thing if you've got 10K to tie up to make $100.  

Some are just impossible: Does Taylor get presented a SB ring or appear on the cover of Madden first. 

And books are making bank of the swifties.   Is Taylor going to be shown eating a hot dog?  Yes +500 with no option for NO.  Will Taylor announce she's pregnant +5000.  So when all these wild things don't happen, it's like stealing candy from babies.  

[Horseman 2,438]

14 hours ago, Gutterboys Flip Flops said:

Please post if you get time. 

The way I do specials is by thinking how I expect the game to play out and pick props along that narrative.  I posted in a different thread that I think the line should favor the chiefs by 2 or 3 instead of the 49rs.  The AFC proved that you need an elite QB to win and every time we think Allen or Jackson is going to be the next guy Mahomes is always left standing there.  The chiefs can win just because of mahomes.  On the other hand the NFC showed that they don't have an elite QB.  The most well rounded team won with mr irrelevant.  For the 49rs to win this game the entire team needs to play a complete game without making any mistakes under the biggest lights there are.  I also like to look for plus money props that feel like it's a 50-50 or good chance of happening. 

For sides, since I'm on KC, instead of 2 points or +110 money line I'm going to plunk some down on Mahomes MVP for a higher payout.

Here is what I have so far for specials:

gatoraide orange +450	used to be a fairly easy $50 doing some internet slothing to get even odds red/yellow/orange or belichick clear.  Seems like gatorage gods have been messing with us lately with 2 blues in a row and then a shocker chiefs(orange) purple last year.  Taking odds that it swings back to normal
gatoraide clear +800	there is always water on the sideline
first score chiefs fg +370
first turnover fumble +170
tot punts u7.5	a half point higher than the sum of individual teams o/u
off pass int yes +380	aggressive te on both teams and both team pick a lot
swift shown with drink in hand yes +120	long tour, long flight, it's the superbowl
mcentire boot color white +500	hoping silver (not listed) counts as white and she wants to be more flashy than the favorites black/brown.  Red could pull an upset.
mahomes headband red +120	matches more often than not and they are home team red, although I think he foked me on this last year
administrative time out +500	no idea what counts as administrative, but, anything to get in more commercials
49rs win coin toss +100	was the bets odds for the flip
first offensive play pass +135	I think this might be the best bet out there.  The line is following conventional wisdom, but, it's a passing league now and I think all teams pass more on 1st down than they do run.  I think 49rs are 60% and Chiefs closer to 70%. What am I missing?
first chief offensive play pass +130
time of poss chiefs -110
49rs score first drive yes +110
chiefs convert 4th down yes -110
chiefs win both halves yes +380
first score td - no +130
Aiyuk 1 catch to the right +170
romo to say "taylor/swift" before jim +110
1st kick off = touch back yes -325	This was by far my biggest bet last year, but, I got it at -160/-170.  Looks like they've adjusted but the number opened at -400 so it's more tempting the lower it gets

[BeenHereBefore 1,506]

9 hours ago, Horseman said:

For the 49rs to win this game the entire team needs to play a complete game without making any mistakes under the biggest lights there are.

Huge game for McCaffery would work and KC pass D is for real.

[Horseman 2,438]

11 hours ago, Horseman said:

 

first offensive play pass +135	I think this might be the best bet out there.  The line is following conventional wisdom, but, it's a passing league now and I think all teams pass more on 1st down than they do run.  I think 49rs are 60% and Chiefs closer to 70%. What am I missing?

Down to +120 already. I knew it.  See if goes negative by game time.  

[Gutterboys Flip Flops 110]

Kentucky -4.5

[Horseman 2,438]

UFC Fight Night 

Feel pretty good about this card    

Wells -160

Clark -240

Lookboonmee -295

Vieira -115

Rodriguez -250

Fili +140

Pyfer -260

[Gutterboys Flip Flops 110]

On 2/8/2024 at 9:29 AM, Gutterboys Flip Flops said:

Sahith Theegala +4000

Sahith Theegala Top 20 +180

DK offering $250 to cash out now on a $25 wager.  
 

Let it ride!!!!!

[Gutterboys Flip Flops 110]

I hate John Calipari and one and done CBB. 

[Gutterboys Flip Flops 110]

Bogey- bogey for 7-11 to start round three.

[listen2me 23 1,852]

18 hours ago, Gutterboys Flip Flops said:

DK offering $250 to cash out now on a $25 wager.  
 

Let it ride!!!!!

My buddy took Nick Taylor when he was cruising still 70 to 1.  He was debating cashing out but has left it alone.  

In hindsight Taylor was like 130 to 1 at points.   He just finished 2nd here and isn't  a total nobody.   That was an insane number.  

[Gutterboys Flip Flops 110]

National Anthem o 89.5 seconds. 
 

Reba has never went over this number but SB anthems are generally more drawn out 

[Gutterboys Flip Flops 110]

I’m not sure what you win but I took Gronk to make the kick on FD

[Horseman 2,438]

NFL Today desk is set up in front of the Bellagio. 

What landmark shown first during the broadcast: Bellagio Fountains +350 ???

Sphere is the favorite -150

[Gutterboys Flip Flops 110]

Scottie is going to Fock me 

[Gutterboys Flip Flops 110]

1 hour ago, Horseman said:

NFL Today desk is set up in front of the Bellagio. 

What landmark shown first during the broadcast: Bellagio Fountains +350 ???

Sphere is the favorite -150

You still down to draft for Clocaine tomorrow?

[Horseman 2,438]

1 minute ago, Gutterboys Flip Flops said:

You still down to draft for Clocaine tomorrow?

I am if you need me to.  Up by 6am pst. 

[Gutterboys Flip Flops 110]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

I am if you need me to.  Up by 6am pst. 

Yes and much appreciated. Drafting from an odds list is no go 

[BeenHereBefore 1,506]

2 hours ago, Gutterboys Flip Flops said:

I’m not sure what you win but I took Gronk to make the kick on FD

Last year they gave you a free $10 bet after he missed it regardless what you picked, I imagine it's the same deal this year. Accept Gronk jinx Carl Weathers in those commercials.

[Gutterboys Flip Flops 110]

That double brave at the end I believe pushed it to the over 

[Gutterboys Flip Flops 110]

Was worried there for a second. She started that off like she was the micromachine man 

[Horseman 2,438]

3 hours ago, Horseman said:

NFL Today desk is set up in front of the Bellagio. 

What landmark shown first during the broadcast: Bellagio Fountains +350 ???

Sphere is the favorite -150

Anyone catch this? Thought it was 3:30, was watching golf.