My early draft

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

I partnered up with my brother in a league with people he works with, this is our team. 1 Keeper per team (after 5th round).

QB    Ryan Tannehill (11.10)

RB    Aaron Jones (1.10)
RB    Damien Harris (K-12.01)
RB    Myles Gaskin (5.10)
RB    AJ Dillon (9.10)
RB    Trey Sermon (8.01)

WR    Terry McLaurin (3.10)
WR    CeeDee Lamb (4.01)
WR    Diontae Johnson (6.01)
WR    D.J. Chark (7.10)
WR    DeVonta Smith (10.01)
WR    DeVante Parker (13.10)
WR    Marquise Brown (14.01)

TE    Travis Kelce (2.01)

K    Michael Badgley (16.01)

DE    Green Bay Packers (15.10)

Scoring...

• 0.5 PPR, no decimal scoring... so, need 2 receptions to get the point.
• 1 pt for every 5 rushes.
• 6 pts for all TD's
  • Bonus points for longer TD's.
• Bonus (2 & 5 respectively), points for 100 & 200 yards rushing and/or receiving.
• Bonus (2 & 5 respectively), points for 300 & 400 yards passing.

Lineup: QB / 2 RB / 2 WR / TE / FLEX (RB/WR/TE) / K / DE

 

Last year, Kelce was TE1 with 266 points and Waller was TE2 with 237.  Waller was kept.  Tonyan, with 143 points was TE3.  With that kind of discrepancy, had to go TE early.  Kittle was kept also.

[polecatt 403]

Not bad, you have WR depth and the best TE.

I would be a little concerned about RB depth, but who isn't?

I like your first two WRs and you have decent depth behind them.

In a league that gives bonuses for long TD plays, Tannehill may get a few of those with AJ Brown and Julio.

[jrokh 569]

Not sure why you think Sermon or Dillon would be more valuable than a QB you claim has a reasonable shot at 5000 yards and 50 td's...

[AxeElf 787]

Hopefully it's a 10-teamer, with no apparent RB2.  Of course, in a 10-teamer, the QB position starts to look pretty sad--and one would hope to be able to get at least three solid WRs in a 10-teamer, so I guess it's six to one, half a dozen to the other.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

1 hour ago, polecatt said:

Not bad, you have WR depth and the best TE.

I would be a little concerned about RB depth, but who isn't?

I like your first two WRs and you have decent depth behind them.

In a league that gives bonuses for long TD plays, Tannehill may get a few of those with AJ Brown and Julio.

Yeah, we picked 10th and the pool was rather shallow on RB's by then.  We do like Harris who we think could be a solid RB2... Gaskin should be at least decent early on.  There's a couple teams that I think are better, but as of now, I think we have the 3rd best team.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

Not sure why you think Sermon or Dillon would be more valuable than a QB you claim has a reasonable shot at 5000 yards and 50 td's...

Someone else agreed with me... took Brady in the 6th.  I would've been fine taking him at the 7/8 turn.  Was pretty comfortable with only 5 QB's off the board at our 6th pick.

1. Mahomes - 2.10
2. Murray - 3.07
3. Allen - 3.09
4. Rodgers - 4.06
5. Jackson - 4.07
6. Brady - 6.05

Wilson, Herbert, Hurts, Prescott, Stafford, and Burrow (in that order), were all taken by our 11th round pick.  That's when we took Tannehill.

[jrokh 569]

8 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Someone else agreed with me... took Brady in the 6th.  I would've been fine taking him at the 7/8 turn.  Was pretty comfortable with only 5 QB's off the board at our 6th pick.

1. Mahomes - 2.10
2. Murray - 3.07
3. Allen - 3.09
4. Rodgers - 4.06
5. Jackson - 4.07
6. Brady - 6.05

Wilson, Herbert, Hurts, Prescott, Stafford, and Burrow (in that order), were all taken by our 11th round pick.  That's when we took Tannehill.

Must be a Tampa league. Brady in the 6th, yeesh 

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

1 minute ago, jrokh said:

Must be a Tampa league. Brady in the 6th, yeesh 

NJ, but nice try though.

[weepaws 2,460]

Good job, good team, good luck. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Good job, good team, good luck. 

Thanks.  

[jackjohn 31]

I guess I don't see the value in Kelce in the 2nd round. In a 10 team league, your rb situation is scary. Jones is clearly your rb1, but none of the other guys is a clear rb1 on their own team. The ~125 points you gained by taking kelce over Tonyan, etc will not look very well if Gaskin doesn't take the lead in Miami. I would prefer Jones, Mixon, Tonyan over Jones, Gaskin, Kelce. Just my opinion.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

1 hour ago, jackjohn said:

I guess I don't see the value in Kelce in the 2nd round. In a 10 team league, your rb situation is scary. Jones is clearly your rb1, but none of the other guys is a clear rb1 on their own team. The ~125 points you gained by taking kelce over Tonyan, etc will not look very well if Gaskin doesn't take the lead in Miami. I would prefer Jones, Mixon, Tonyan over Jones, Gaskin, Kelce. Just my opinion.

That's fine.  Our reasoning was...

• There were 7 RB's kept (Sanders, Swift, Gibson, Dobbins, Taylor, Ekeler, and Harris), and we picked 10th, 8 of the first 9 picks ahead of us were RB's.
• We think Harris will be an RB2 this year and was better than the guys available.
• There's no one in Miami who will compete for touches.
• Sure, we would've loved to have Jones, Mixon, and Tonyan, but Mixon went at pick #8, 2 picks before we drafted Jones.  After the 6th guy took Nick Chubb, and with 12 RB's off the board (not counting Harris), we had Mixon and Jones as our #1 and #3 selections at the turn.  Zeke was #2, but he went right after Mixon, at pick 9.  So, we took Kelce.
• We considered taking a WR (Hill or Adams), at the turn, but since Kittle and Waller were kept, the drop off at TE was greater than any other, so we took Kelce.
  • The other keeper was Josh Allen.

The first round went like this...

1. Henry (kept Swift)
2. McCaffrey (kept Sanders)
3. Cook
4. Kamara (kept Gibson)
5. Barkley (kept Ekeler)
6. Chubb
7. Hopkins (kept Dobbins)
8. Mixon
9. Elliott (kept Taylor)
10. Us - Jones (kept Harris)

[AxeElf 787]

So if you take Najee Harris instead of Kelce in the 2nd, now your RBs are Jones, Harris and Harris, and you don't have to go for Gaskin in the 5th so you can get a decent WR3 like Robert Woods as well, and you still have a top 10 TE in C.J. Uzomah waiting for you in the last round.

Lesson learned, hopefully.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

Nah, I'm good with what we got.

[AxeElf 787]

52 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Nah, I'm good with what we got.

That's only because the season hasn't started yet.

[Ray_T 591]

10 hours ago, jrokh said:

Must be a Tampa league. Brady in the 6th, yeesh 

well, If I were in a draft with TBay and wanted Brady, knowing his opinion on Brady I would know that is the spot you need to draft him if you want him.  Maybe it was a know your league thing rather than a TBay thing.

There are also a decent number of Brady Fans who only cheer for the bucs because Brady went there.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

8 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, If I were in a draft with TBay and wanted Brady, knowing his opinion on Brady I would know that is the spot you need to draft him if you want him.  Maybe it was a know your league thing rather than a TBay thing.

There are also a decent number of Brady Fans who only cheer for the bucs because Brady went there.

Well, I did show up with my Buccaneers Super Bowl Championship hat and t-shirt.  

Buccaneers drafted...

• Evans - 3.01
• Godwin - 3.06
• Brady - 6.05
• Brown - 6.07
• Fournette - 7.01
• Jones - 7.04
• Gronkowski - 8.08
• OJ Howard - 9.02
• Defense - 10.07
• Succop - 10.08
• Bernard - 14.04

This league has 7 Eagles fans (counting my brother), 1 Dolphins fan, 1 Steelers fan, and 1 Seahawks fan.

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

• Evans - 3.01
• Godwin - 3.06
• Brady - 6.05
• Brown - 6.07
• Fournette - 7.01
• Jones - 7.04
• Gronkowski - 8.08
• OJ Howard - 9.02
• Defense - 10.07
• Succop - 10.08
• Bernard - 14.04

Do you have any openings?  How big can we make the entry fee?

Howard in the 9th?  K and D in the 10th??

Must be nice playing with chimps; problem is, you din't do much better...

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

4 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Do you have any openings?  How big can we make the entry fee?

Howard in the 9th?  K and D in the 10th??

Must be nice playing with chimps; problem is, you din't do much better...

Hey, people want a piece of a team who wants to go 20-0.  I can't fault them for that.  Maybe that could've been the Chiefs this year if they didn't get curb stomped back in February.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Taking Kelce always makes your team look worse to onlookers because you have to sacrifice at one of the major positions so it’s an easy target for hecklers. Like Axe was saying, If you replaced Kelce with the top RB available and a 6th rounder with the best te available people would say “looks great!”. Just have to accept that when posting teams. Have faith in your guys and work the wire.

[weepaws 2,460]

I think Kelce is the pick that makes more late first round drafters, like in my 14 teamer, feel the pressure in taking him, like passing on him Is a sin. 

 

[Ray_T 591]

11 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Well, I did show up with my Buccaneers Super Bowl Championship hat and t-shirt.  

Yeah you tipped your hand and let everyone know where your loyalties lie.

That can be both a good thing or a bad thing.

[weepaws 2,460]

When I go to a draft, because I do live in person drafts , like my first one that took place two days ago. Was down in Auburn California, I were a Jersey and a Hat from an nfl team, gives me an edge.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

12 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Yeah you tipped your hand and let everyone know where your loyalties lie.

That can be both a good thing or a bad thing.

Nah, lol, it's all good.  I don't really know any of those guys and they all know my brother and know he's an Eagles fan like them (for the most part).  Besides, I like having different players in leagues.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

14 hours ago, tanatastic said:

Taking Kelce always makes your team look worse to onlookers because you have to sacrifice at one of the major positions so it’s an easy target for hecklers. Like Axe was saying, If you replaced Kelce with the top RB available and a 6th rounder with the best te available people would say “looks great!”. Just have to accept that when posting teams. Have faith in your guys and work the wire.

It's fine.  I like my roster even if certain people don't.  Like I mentioned earlier, there are teams that are better because they had a big advantage with their keeper, but it's fine.  Most of us know that luck plays a large role in fantasy football.  Besides, there's going to be injuries, there's going to be busts, and there's going to be FA's to target so there's going to be roster turnover regardless.  At some point we'll have to cut someone when Kelce is on a bye and when Tannehill is on a bye.

[Ray_T 591]

On 8/18/2021 at 4:31 PM, tanatastic said:

Taking Kelce always makes your team look worse to onlookers because you have to sacrifice at one of the major positions so it’s an easy target for hecklers. Like Axe was saying, If you replaced Kelce with the top RB available and a 6th rounder with the best te available people would say “looks great!”. Just have to accept that when posting teams. Have faith in your guys and work the wire.

Truth.

a couple years back I took Kelce in the second round of a draft. (we keep 3  so the equivalent of round 5)  I was very happy to get him.   someone else told me it was a panic move.  I said no.  I expect him to score about the same (maybe slightly lower) than the best receiver on the board at the time.   But considering its a TE I filled I felt I was the better team for it.

later that year the same guy said.... your team doesnt look great when you look at it, but you seem to be winning a lot of games.    Then I went on to win the championship.

thing is, a TE who puts up 1000 yards and at least 8 TD is rare. 

its not nearly as rare to find a WR who can do it. 

Kelce gives you a 3-5 point advantage on every team you play (larger for teams with crappy TE's)   Thats huge.

The only thing I worry about now is his age.  hes getting up there.   I think he has at least one or two more Really good year left and then the decline will likely begin.

if you are in a keeper/dynasty league and not competing for the title this year, I'd rather have Waller at this point just because hes young.   I expect he will close the gap between him and Kelce within a year or two in terms of fantasy production.   Kelce is the better player today.  There is no doubt about that.  

What we dont know is how long he will remain on top.

[AxeElf 787]

26 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Kelce gives you a 3-5 point advantage on every team you play (larger for teams with crappy TE's)   Thats huge.

It's huge when you can get him in the 5th round, sure, after you already have solid starters at RB and WR.  If you have to take him in the 1st round, so your RB1 is a RB2, your RB2 is a RB3, your WR1 is a WR2 and your WR2 is a WR3, then those 3-5 points shrink up a bit with every 2-3 points you lose at every other position.

[weepaws 2,460]

47 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Truth.

a couple years back I took Kelce in the second round of a draft. (we keep 3  so the equivalent of round 5)  I was very happy to get him.   someone else told me it was a panic move.  I said no.  I expect him to score about the same (maybe slightly lower) than the best receiver on the board at the time.   But considering its a TE I filled I felt I was the better team for it.

later that year the same guy said.... your team doesnt look great when you look at it, but you seem to be winning a lot of games.    Then I went on to win the championship.

thing is, a TE who puts up 1000 yards and at least 8 TD is rare. 

its not nearly as rare to find a WR who can do it. 

Kelce gives you a 3-5 point advantage on every team you play (larger for teams with crappy TE's)   Thats huge.

The only thing I worry about now is his age.  hes getting up there.   I think he has at least one or two more Really good year left and then the decline will likely begin.

if you are in a keeper/dynasty league and not competing for the title this year, I'd rather have Waller at this point just because hes young.   I expect he will close the gap between him and Kelce within a year or two in terms of fantasy production.   Kelce is the better player today.  There is no doubt about that.  

What we dont know is how long he will remain on top.

Yeah but that advantage goes away pretty quickly when ones opponent is beating your Rbs and WRs 

  

[weepaws 2,460]

He didn’t have a huge advantage, weeks, 1,2,3,4,7,12. Those six weeks those ff teams might have lost.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

8 hours ago, weepaws said:

He didn’t have a huge advantage, weeks, 1,2,3,4,7,12. Those six weeks those ff teams might have lost.  

 

He's not talking about non-PPR.

In PPR leagues, Kelce got 17, 24, 14, 10, 6, & 16.  Sure, the 10 and 6 aren't good, but the rest are definitely solid.  Last year, the #4 TE in average fpg was 12.2, so anything over 15.6 is a 3+ point advantage, which Kelce got in 3 of the games you mentioned, almost 4.

[weepaws 2,460]

No one said ppr, so I used the main league I’m In non, there is simply some weekends and Thursday and Monday that Kelce might now always out produce ones te. 

And that could be a disadvantage to that owner, I’ve seen it,and so has everyone else.  

No need to draft a te in the first few rounds.  

No need until double digit rounds. 

[Ray_T 591]

12 hours ago, weepaws said:

Yeah but that advantage goes away pretty quickly when ones opponent is beating your Rbs and WRs 

  

wasnt an issue for me.  2 of my keepers were Dalvin Cook and Sequon Barkley.

I think it depends on your situation and where you are drafting the player in question.  its a much harder decision if you are drafting in round 2  of a redraft.

[weepaws 2,460]

I can agree with that. 

[Ray_T 591]

12 hours ago, AxeElf said:

It's huge when you can get him in the 5th round, sure, after you already have solid starters at RB and WR.  If you have to take him in the 1st round, so your RB1 is a RB2, your RB2 is a RB3, your WR1 is a WR2 and your WR2 is a WR3, then those 3-5 points shrink up a bit with every 2-3 points you lose at every other position.

I agree. much harder to grab a guy like that in round 1 or 2 of a redraft.   I'd have to run numbers to see if it is worthwhile.   but in general my rule of thumb is this:

if you dont take the best player on the board at a certain position, how much do you stand to lose by waiting a round to fill that spot?    That is the question you ask yourself

so if you think you can get Kelce in round 1 and in round 2 you think you can Get Waller (whether this is realistic or not remains to be seen)    The difference is less than one Fantasy point per game (if using fftoday projections)

if you think both go in the first round, then the dropoff is around 3.5 fantasy points per game to Kittle.   This is your range, but picking at 1.09 in a 12 teamer, it is very likely Waller is available at 2.03

In this case I'm .estimating you are picking at 1.09 (Kelces ADP)  and the draft is serpentine (12 team) and the scoring is PPR.  so I am using fftoday PPR charts for ADP and scoring  (for convenience)

then if you go to WR and RB and do the same thing estimating a range in terms of the dropoff if you DONT take the best player on the board at THAT position.

wherever the largest dropoff is, that's the player you should be picking. (assuming of course that the projections you are using are correct)

This is where your Mocks and ADP charts can come in handy.  you can see how many WR (on average) will go in the time you wait between picks.   ditto for RB's.

so in this case, if you look at the ADP and assume the board runs close to the ADP's posted on fftoday it looks like Kelce is at 1.09.   according the the ADP list only one WR should be taken at this point in the draft (Davante Adams)  so the best WR on the board should be Tyreek Hill.  if you project out to 2.03 (your next pick) the PPR ADP suggests that Diggs will go before you get to pick and Hopkins may or may not be there.   This doesnt jive with fftoday rankings, but its not unusual when you have a bunch of WR's projected in the same tier.

according to the fftoday list, the best WR available at the time is Hopkins and Ridley.   this would assume a drop of Just over 1 fantasy point per game indicating there is an advantage to taking a WR here as compared to a TE.   I could run the numbers for RB too, and worth noting traditionally at this point in the draft, the dropoff at RB is more substantial than it is at WR and TE (thus the reason so many RB's go in round 1 of the draft)  but the bottom line is.... at his ADP, Kelce actually isnt the best pick in this case.

I usually dont do this calculation for all rounds.  generally only the first couple rounds and I usually dont run those numbers until a week before the draft because the landscape can change rather quickly and these calculations can be time consuming.

bottom line: it looks like Kelce is not the best value late in round 1.   that may change if he drops into round 2 of your draft but based on fftoday projections and fftoday ADP numbers, hes not your best pick.

[Ray_T 591]

for the record, waller is ranked higher than Kelce in PPR but its so close it may well be a dead heat.

either way, for my money, I'd rather have Waller in the 2nd than Kelce in the first.  that's all I'm saying.

[weepaws 2,460]

Every ppr ranking I’ve see has Kelce going about ten picks before Waller. 

If I had , I mean had to pick one of the two, I would rather take Kelce in the first then Waller in the second.  

 

[Ray_T 591]

4 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Every ppr ranking I’ve see has Kelce going about ten picks before Waller. 

If I had , I mean had to pick one of the two, I would rather take Kelce in the first then Waller in the second.  

 

its a preference thing, I get it.

but the dropoff from Kelce to Waller is small (zero if you believe fftodays PPR rankings, but I also think that Ruggs and Edwards with another year of experience may dig into a few of his looks.  a better offense means his % of the pie may be a bit smaller, but the pie itself will be larger.

either way I personally like Kelce better if all things are equal.  but if you actually get Waller a round  or two later, I prefer him to Kelce at the price paid.

We may well have to agree that we disagree on this but that's how I feel.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

No one said ppr, so I used the main league I’m In non, there is simply some weekends and Thursday and Monday that Kelce might now always out produce ones te. 

And that could be a disadvantage to that owner, I’ve seen it,and so has everyone else.  

No need to draft a te in the first few rounds.  

No need until double digit rounds. 

Well, in my first post, I said it was .5 PPR, but I knew what he meant.  As I also stated in the first post, Kelce scored over 120 more points than TE3.  In 16 games, that's 7.5 points per game, regardless of whether it's PPR, .5 PPR, or non-PPR, those are the results.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

14 hours ago, AxeElf said:

It's huge when you can get him in the 5th round, sure, after you already have solid starters at RB and WR.  If you have to take him in the 1st round, so your RB1 is a RB2, your RB2 is a RB3, your WR1 is a WR2 and your WR2 is a WR3, then those 3-5 points shrink up a bit with every 2-3 points you lose at every other position.

This is a blanket argument that doesn't really apply to the situation.

• Round 1 - Aaron Jones is a projected RB1
• Round 3 - Terry McLaurin is a projected WR1
• Round 4 - CeeDee Lamb is a projected WR2 (in 10-team leagues)
• Round 5 - Myles Gaskin is a projected RB3 (as is Harris who was a 12th round keeper)
• Round 6 - Diontae Johnson is a projected WR2 who will be our flex.

We're were never a round/slot behind at any point, even with taking Kelce at 2.01.  We think Gaskin and Harris will be an RB2.  If they don't pan out, then so be it.

[weepaws 2,460]

35 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Well, in my first post, I said it was .5 PPR, but I knew what he meant.  As I also stated in the first post, Kelce scored over 120 more points than TE3.  In 16 games, that's 7.5 points per game, regardless of whether it's PPR, .5 PPR, or non-PPR, those are the results.

Just showing that week end and out kelce sometimes does get out performed. 

I will never own any of the top Te or qbs , I simply don’t draft them that high.