Johnathan Taylor with the #5 overall pick---is this crazy???

[jrokh 612]

34 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Probably more than the teams who have RB4s who suck.

Maybe, but Wilkins' 3.7 yards per tote with 1TD on 84 carries last season doesn't exactly inspire confidence...

[AxeElf 787]

12 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Maybe, but Wilkins' 3.7 yards per tote with 1TD on 84 carries last season doesn't exactly inspire confidence...

Well, I wouldn't draft him or anything.  He's just 2 or 3 more touches per game that Taylor doesn't get.

[jrokh 612]

5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Well, I wouldn't draft him or anything.  He's just 2 or 3 more touches per game that Taylor doesn't get.

The Colts top 3 not including Mack ran the ball 415 times last season. Not to mention 115 targets between just hines and Taylor. I'm not particularly concerned about JT's touches, but if you want to be, have at it...

[AxeElf 787]

14 minutes ago, jrokh said:

The Colts top 3 not including Mack ran the ball 415 times last season. Not to mention 115 targets between just hines and Taylor. I'm not particularly concerned about JT's touches, but if you want to be, have at it...

All in all, Wilkins is just another brick in the wall.

[Phil Simms 11 134]

Wilkins has no impact whatsoever. Taylor should be taken 4th to 6th. I’ve got 3rd pick so I’m going to miss out. 

[weepaws 3,274]

Taylor shouldn’t be taken 4-6. 

[AxeElf 787]

21 minutes ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Wilkins has no impact whatsoever. Taylor should be taken 4th to 6th. I’ve got 3rd pick so I’m going to miss out. 

Thank your lucky stars that chance has rescued you from your error in judgment.  But the way his ADP is dropping, he might make it back around to you in the 2nd.

[weepaws 3,274]

Based on what I’m seeing Taylor’s ADP is now 1:8-1:10, so why over draft him, and never in the first round do you want to over draft a player. I would call the dropping of his value, the Mack effect 

[Ray_T 770]

6 hours ago, jrokh said:

Keep in mind that Indy is a run heavy team with a very good Oline. Similar to Cleveland in that respect. There is room for both backs to eat. Mack hasn’t really been much of a pass catcher. So in pass situations JT will get whatever work Hines doesn’t.

agreed.  valid  points.   and with the  O line they have I cant see any of the backs underperforming.

and it looks like they have  good depth at the position.  This  is  why  I  still think a trade makes sense  here at some point.

but if both backs get lots of reps, I'd say thats not actually good for Taylor.  I truly think hes only a top 5 back if hes the bellcow.

split carries worse than 70-30 and hes likely only top 10.   split 50-50 and hes top 15.

either way, the proper place to draft this guy based on risk is likely late 1st to mid 2nd round which makes him a top 12 back.  Possibly top 10. 

I'd suggest hes a bit more value in PPR than standard leagues.  so likely late first round in PPR.  early 2nd for standard leagues.

 

 

 

[TimHauck 3,202]

On 8/20/2021 at 4:04 PM, jrokh said:

Keep in mind that Indy is a run heavy team with a very good Oline. Similar to Cleveland in that respect. There is room for both backs to eat. Mack hasn’t really been much of a pass catcher. So in pass situations JT will get whatever work Hines doesn’t.

If their QB sucks will the run game be successful?

[jrokh 612]

Just now, TimHauck said:

If their QB sucks will the run game be successful?

The Shell of Phillip Rivers wasn't exactly lighting it up and JT just fine. I wouldn't worry about it. But again, I wouldn't draft him top 5. Top 10 fo sho

[tanatastic 2,062]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

The Shell of Phillip Rivers wasn't exactly lighting it up and JT just fine. I wouldn't worry about it. But again, I wouldn't draft him top 5. Top 10 fo sho

It will be interesting for me at pick 11 because I know for sure Saquon and JT will be there for both 11 and 14. I’d like some more clarity on Wentz for week 1 though.

[jrokh 612]

2 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

It will be interesting for me at pick 11 because I know for sure Saquon and JT will be there for both 11 and 14. I’d like some more clarity on Wentz for week 1 though.

Barkley is the real wild card. Could be the RB1, could also be an injury headache all season. I’m a gambling man as I know you are too, so hard to pass on him.

[weepaws 3,274]

I would take Barkely over Taylor. 

[Ray_T 770]

On 8/20/2021 at 6:05 PM, AxeElf said:

Thank your lucky stars that chance has rescued you from your error in judgment.  But the way his ADP is dropping, he might make it back around to you in the 2nd.

just like when bettting on horses, the smart money goes  down just before the race begins.

same with ADP.  when it shifts in the week or two before the season starts, the smart money is affecting that move.  He doesnt belong top 5.  thats what this move is telling us.

[TimHauck 3,202]

4 hours ago, jrokh said:

The Shell of Phillip Rivers wasn't exactly lighting it up and JT just fine. I wouldn't worry about it. But again, I wouldn't draft him top 5. Top 10 fo sho

He was probably still middle of the pack.   Wentz was one of the worst QB's in the league.   He may bounce back to prior form but definitely not a given.

[weepaws 3,274]

Wentz stays healthy he’ll make you eat those words.