Stock Market bubble - will burst - it did, and recovered twice. ***Official thread***

[Horseman 2,845]

6 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

LMAO. Guy from nowheresville USA, who has his wife print receipts for him to track on a spreadsheet, calling anyone else a fool.

Pretty much anyone with a pulse has more wealth than this. “Oh I moved to a farm 100 miles away from a good German restaurant.” Do you even read what you post? 

Hopefully no one with here with actual money listens to this drivel. There’s better advice out there literally anywhere else. 

Except you seem to hang on to my every word. You read everything I post. That's awesome.  

I'm not sure which is more satisfying, helping someone else reach financial independence or laughing at people like you that are too dumb to ever get there.   

[Hardcore troubadour 16,220]

19 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

"Honey, don't forget to get a paper receipt when you go shopping!!"  

Why would anyone need a receipt in this day and age? Just look at your card statement. You don’t have cards? What a loser. 

[Horseman 2,845]

52 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Why would anyone need a receipt in this day and age? Just look at your card statement. You don’t have cards? What a loser. 

Putting a receipt in my pocket is a lot easier for me than looking at 8 different cards and 3 bank accounts.  

What matters though is that you do it, however is easiest for you.  

[easilyscan 1,114]

2025 Returns: https://www.imagebam.com/view/ME19AEWT

Regardless of the account, my goal is always the same. Outperform the DJIA. Incredibly pleased that I not only did that, but beat the S&P 500 as well. (3 of 4 accounts) 

 

The Individual TOD (Taxable Account) is the biggest. 
This account originated in 1994 when I took 5K, & opened a brokerage account @ a small office called PrimeVest inside a local bank. 
1st shares purchased were Intel. They were the Nvidia of the day from the mid 80s, until the early 2000s. Any time I'd have an extra 2 or 3K, I'd deposit it.

In January 97 I bought a gateway 2000 desktop & because the commissions at prime vest were insanely high, opened a brokerage account at Fidelity. Shortly after, I transferred the prime vest account. 

Had 1 mutual fund each at, Bridgeway, T Rowe price, and Wasatch. I transferred all of those to Fidelity for consolidation purposes. 

 

A screen cap of the holdings in that account. https://www.imagebam.com/view/ME19AEWU

Crown Holdings (CCK) is the company I retired from. I purchased shares at $1.94 on whatever day the markets reopened after 9/11. Bought my first shares of Eli Lilly in 2011.

 

The Rollover IRA was my Vanguard 401(k) until late in 2024 when I rolled it into an IRA. No excuses for that performance. I used that account to buy stocks & sell out of the money covered calls to improve my returns. The biggest mistake was taking substantial positions in beaten down companies, thinking they were at or near the bottom and would soon recover.
WRONG!

One example is ConAgra foods. 
I hope to substantially improve on those returns in 2026.

Regards
 

 

 

[Horseman 2,845]

17 hours ago, easilyscan said:

2025 Returns: https://www.imagebam.com/view/ME19AEWT

Regardless of the account, my goal is always the same. Outperform the DJIA. Incredibly pleased that I not only did that, but beat the S&P 500 as well. (3 of 4 accounts) 

 

The Individual TOD (Taxable Account) is the biggest. 
This account originated in 1994 when I took 5K, & opened a brokerage account @ a small office called PrimeVest inside a local bank. 
1st shares purchased were Intel. They were the Nvidia of the day from the mid 80s, until the early 2000s. Any time I'd have an extra 2 or 3K, I'd deposit it.

In January 97 I bought a gateway 2000 desktop & because the commissions at prime vest were insanely high, opened a brokerage account at Fidelity. Shortly after, I transferred the prime vest account. 

Had 1 mutual fund each at, Bridgeway, T Rowe price, and Wasatch. I transferred all of those to Fidelity for consolidation purposes. 

 

A screen cap of the holdings in that account. https://www.imagebam.com/view/ME19AEWU

Crown Holdings (CCK) is the company I retired from. I purchased shares at $1.94 on whatever day the markets reopened after 9/11. Bought my first shares of Eli Lilly in 2011.

 

The Rollover IRA was my Vanguard 401(k) until late in 2024 when I rolled it into an IRA. No excuses for that performance. I used that account to buy stocks & sell out of the money covered calls to improve my returns. The biggest mistake was taking substantial positions in beaten down companies, thinking they were at or near the bottom and would soon recover.
WRONG!

One example is ConAgra foods. 
I hope to substantially improve on those returns in 2026.

Regards
 

 

 

[Horseman 2,845]

Funniest thing about all of this is that NONE of it is hard or time consuming.  Whether it's a receipt in your pocket or checking your credit card statements it's pretty foking easy and you should be doing it anyway. Developing a financial strategy and setting an asset allocation requires math, but, its simple math.  It's not rocket science.  I chuckle at people that just can't bring themselves to do it. 

Sad that most people don't know how to avoid financial planners and set their own path to wealth building.  Everyone should. It could be taught in a single class in high school, but it's not.  

 

[easilyscan 1,114]

On 1/2/2026 at 12:18 PM, Horseman said:

Funniest thing about all of this is that NONE of it is hard or time consuming.  Whether it's a receipt in your pocket or checking your credit card statements it's pretty foking easy and you should be doing it anyway. Developing a financial strategy and setting an asset allocation requires math, but, its simple math.  It's not rocket science.  I chuckle at people that just can't bring themselves to do it. 

Sad that most people don't know how to avoid financial planners and set their own path to wealth building.  Everyone should. It could be taught in a single class in high school, but it's not.  

 

Agreed.

I've since become a credit card guy, but before I retired, I used cash for all my day-to-day transactions. Had no idea how much I spent on these non-recurring expenses, so I made up a simple spreadsheet (10 spending categories) & got in the habit of asking for a receipt on every transaction. A couple times a week, I’d enter the receipt amounts into the spreadsheet. Completely painless, although the average of about $70 per day surprised me. 

[easilyscan 1,114]

On 1/2/2026 at 12:18 PM, Horseman said:

Whether it's a receipt in your pocket or checking your credit card statements it's pretty foking easy and you should be doing it anyway.

Exactly. That's why I find these commercials for rocket money so entertaining!

https://www.ispot.tv/ad/Bh2d/rocket-money-bike-subscriptions

[Horseman 2,845]

Lower tax brackets, higher deductions and expanded tax credits enacted.  Time for turbo boost.  

Scottie, engage the warp drive, give'er all she's got!

[Hardcore troubadour 16,220]

On 10/21/2025 at 4:33 PM, Ron_Artest said:

I took some gains today.  This sh1t is bananas.

[Ron_Artest 2,733]

7 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

You never take gains?

It's still bananas.

[easilyscan 1,114]

US stock futures dropped Sunday night as Wall Street reacted to the Trump administration opening a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

If President Trump is 'directly' behind this as many suspect, I can't agree with it.

I think Jerome Powell did the right thing by starting to put the brakes on by gradually raising rates closer to the historical average starting in 2022. Besides, most of the major market averages set new highs last week. What the fock more does Trump want ?

The good news for those of us that hold it...........gold and silver are surging

 

4,579.62

 

+87.53

+1.95%

 

83.28

 

+3.72

+4.68%

[thegeneral 3,821]

24 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

US stock futures dropped Sunday night as Wall Street reacted to the Trump administration opening a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

If President Trump is behind this as many suspect, I can't agree with it.

I think Jerome Powell did the right thing by starting to put the brakes on by gradually raising rates closer to the historical average starting in 2022. Besides, most of the major market averages set new highs last week. What the fock more does Trump want ?

The good news for those of us that hold it...........gold and silver are surging

 

4,579.62

 

+87.53

+1.95%

 

83.28

 

+3.72

+4.68%

Donald can’t help himself.

[Horseman 2,845]

1 minute ago, thegeneral said:

Are you ok? Serious question. Kind of worried.

Liar

[WhiteWonder 3,047]

On 1/2/2026 at 5:45 PM, easilyscan said:

Agreed.

I've since become a credit card guy, but before I retired, I used cash for all my day-to-day transactions. Had no idea how much I spent on these non-recurring expenses, so I made up a simple spreadsheet (10 spending categories) & got in the habit of asking for a receipt on every transaction. A couple times a week, I’d enter the receipt amounts into the spreadsheet. Completely painless, although the average of about $70 per day surprised me. 

Paying in cash should only be for people without enough self discipline to not view credit cards as endless money or not pay the balance in full every month… which you should be able to do if you follow one simple rule…

can I go to the atm and take enough cash to pay for this purchase?

. … get a few good cash back cards to cover every scenario (dining/entertainment, rotating high cash back categories, flat % for everything else) and none with annual fees. 
 

otherwise you are just leaving money on the table. Even the typical areas where people have been taught to pay cash, like gas stations. The difference between a ‘same price cash or credit’ station and a cheaper cash station is likely 2 or 3 cents per gallon. It’s well offset if you’re getting cash back

[Ron_Artest 2,733]

Everything goes on a credit card.  I have 20+.  Groceries 6%, gas 5%, pharmacy 5%, Amazon 5%, Lowe's 5%, target 5%,  insurance 5%, 4% restaurants, 3% most other, 2% everything else.  Sometimes cash back bonuses, sometimes double rewards.  I got 10% back utilities last summer, $75 with the NJ crazy electricity bills. Saving thousands.  Pay it all off, never a late fee, never an interest charge.

[Horseman 2,845]

Bank of America Diamond  

5.25% Gas

5.25% Restaurants 

3.5% Grocery

2.625% Everything Else

 

[Horseman 2,845]

We use the Amazon card too because why not, but, don't fool yourself thinking you're getting 5% cash back at a place like Lowes.  It's already baked into their prices as compared to Home Depot.  

[Ron_Artest 2,733]

New York
 — 
Investors took one look at the Trump administration’s criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and they decided to resuscitate the “Sell America” trade, selling off US stocks, bonds and the dollar.

The US dollar weakened against other major currencies. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar’s strength against six major currencies, was down 0.4% – a sharp move for the greenback.

Federal Reserve independence is considered a cornerstone of what makes US financial markets exceptional. Investors, economists and historians all regard an independent central bank as key to stable financial markets, as policymakers can set monetary policy without regard to political interests.

[MTSkiBum 1,630]

10 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

Paying in cash should only be for people without enough self discipline to not view credit cards as endless money or not pay the balance in full every month… which you should be able to do if you follow one simple rule…

can I go to the atm and take enough cash to pay for this purchase?

. … get a few good cash back cards to cover every scenario (dining/entertainment, rotating high cash back categories, flat % for everything else) and none with annual fees. 
 

otherwise you are just leaving money on the table. Even the typical areas where people have been taught to pay cash, like gas stations. The difference between a ‘same price cash or credit’ station and a cheaper cash station is likely 2 or 3 cents per gallon. It’s well offset if you’re getting cash back

It screws businesses and poorer people though, since the average credit card processing fee is around 2-3%.

When margins are tight that sucks. 

It also then affects poorer people since they are more likely to use cash over card. Businesses have to raise their prices by that 2-3% to cover the transaction, which means that the poorer people paying cash are subsidizing the people with more money who then get cash back through their credit card.

I use card for almost everything. I am guilty of this, but it still sucks.  No way am I carrying cash around, and stopping at an ATM machine every week. 

[MTSkiBum 1,630]

Also, there will be a huge bubble burst later this year in stock market. 

 

There is circular finance going around in the AI space. Nvidia is investing in it's customers, which then use that money to purchase computing power from data centers, the money the data centers receive from AI companies, then goes right back to Nvidia. 

CoreWeave is going to go under first though i think and that will start the toppling. Coreweave sells its computing power at a loss, and is building more data centers to sell at a loss. Eventually it's funding will run dry, and that will be the start.  When coreweave and other data centers no longer buy from Nvidia, then nvidia's stock will tank. At about this point people will quit investing in venture capital's that invest in AI, this will cause companies like Open AI and Anthropic to declare bankruptcy. 

Then the banks that loaned them tons of cash like JP Morgan chase and Deutsche Bank will then realize they invested billions to tens of billions that they are never getting back. 

My guess is around July-September timeframe, but depending on if people keep throwing money at venture capital, maybe this bubble lasts another year. 

I don't think people realize the negative margins that both the data center companies and AI companies have. They are all just burning cash. 

 

[Mike Hunt 327]

9 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

It screws businesses and poorer people though, since the average credit card processing fee is around 2-3%.

When margins are tight that sucks. 

It also then affects poorer people since they are more likely to use cash over card. Businesses have to raise their prices by that 2-3% to cover the transaction, which means that the poorer people paying cash are subsidizing the people with more money who then get cash back through their credit card.

I use card for almost everything. I am guilty of this, but it still sucks.  No way am I carrying cash around, and stopping at an ATM machine every week. 

CC have been charging business a 2-3% fee forever.  

Until COVID hit those fees were considered part of doing business.  During COVID and after many business`s realized that could pass that 2-3% on to the consumers without a fight.

[easilyscan 1,114]

7 hours ago, Horseman said:

We use the Amazon card too because why not, but, don't fool yourself thinking you're getting 5% cash back at a place like Lowes.  It's already baked into their prices as compared to Home Depot.  

Good point. Businesses don't just eat the fees they pay to the credit card companies. They add it to the price of the goods and services they sell. That's where those that use cash really come out on the losing end. At least you recover some of that with CC points/rewards. 

Related: Board lefty's will have a hard time with this one.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-card-stocks-sink-after-trump-proposes-10-cap-on-fees-yikes-131352785.html

[easilyscan 1,114]

7 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

Also, there will be a huge bubble burst later this year in stock market. 

 

There is circular finance going around in the AI space. Nvidia is investing in it's customers, which then use that money to purchase computing power from data centers, the money the data centers receive from AI companies, then goes right back to Nvidia. 

CoreWeave is going to go under first though i think and that will start the toppling. Coreweave sells its computing power at a loss, and is building more data centers to sell at a loss. Eventually it's funding will run dry, and that will be the start.  When coreweave and other data centers no longer buy from Nvidia, then nvidia's stock will tank. At about this point people will quit investing in venture capital's that invest in AI, this will cause companies like Open AI and Anthropic to declare bankruptcy. 

Then the banks that loaned them tons of cash like JP Morgan chase and Deutsche Bank will then realize they invested billions to tens of billions that they are never getting back. 

My guess is around July-September timeframe, but depending on if people keep throwing money at venture capital, maybe this bubble lasts another year. 

I don't think people realize the negative margins that both the data center companies and AI companies have. They are all just burning cash. 

 

Hyper quantitative easing should solve all that..........lol

It's all going to end badly, not a matter of if, only a matter of when ?

[Ron_Artest 2,733]

1 hour ago, easilyscan said:

Good point. Businesses don't just eat the fees they pay to the credit card companies. They add it to the price of the goods and services they sell. 

Now do tariffs.

[easilyscan 1,114]

1 minute ago, Ron_Artest said:

Now do tariffs.

Don't have the time. How about you do a comprehensive study & report back ?

[Ron_Artest 2,733]

3 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

Don't have the time. How about you do a comprehensive study & report back ?

Most ate them initially, more and more passing them on.  This year they will have no choice, prices will rise further.

[seafoam1 3,574]

26 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

Most ate them initially, more and more passing them on.  This year they will have no choice, prices will rise further.

another broke libtard chimes in...

[WhiteWonder 3,047]

10 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

It screws businesses and poorer people though, since the average credit card processing fee is around 2-3%.

When margins are tight that sucks. 

It also then affects poorer people since they are more likely to use cash over card. Businesses have to raise their prices by that 2-3% to cover the transaction, which means that the poorer people paying cash are subsidizing the people with more money who then get cash back through their credit card.

I use card for almost everything. I am guilty of this, but it still sucks.  No way am I carrying cash around, and stopping at an ATM machine every week. 

small businesses with a lower transaction volume, I would agree with. We've already seen a lot of smaller restaurants state they add 3% to card transactions and been seeing this since 2022.  Chain places, other big businesses I don't see it being an issue. The business they gain due to the convenience of the swipe or tap way offsets their POS fees. Random example, Best Buy is not going to do as much business if they are cash only. 

Poorer people shouldn't likely be using CC's because they are less likely to be disciplined shoppers like I outlined above. They tend to be the ones who view cards like endless money they can worry (or not worry) about later.

If a poorer person goes to a restaurant that charges an extra 3% with card, that poorer person should be paying cash anyway in that situation. So it's not really screwing them. Those smaller restaurants are one of the few examples where even someone who is well off and on top of their finances should probably also pay cash. 

[WhiteWonder 3,047]

10 hours ago, Mike Hunt said:

CC have been charging business a 2-3% fee forever.  

Until COVID hit those fees were considered part of doing business.  During COVID and after many business`s realized that could pass that 2-3% on to the consumers without a fight.

This. smaller business have been advertising the higher CC vs. cash  since 2021/22

[Hardcore troubadour 16,220]

It would be good if Rusty was still around. He works in finance.