Stock Market bubble - will crash

[Horseman 2,621]

5 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Yeah I can move in between the two. You know I have never looked at this, probably worth doing. 

Your expenses is the one thing you have full control over. But they like to hide them. Look at the transactions, sometimes you find them in the yearly summaries.  Call them and ask.  

Or just move it all to self directed anyway. It's not rocket science. VOO expesnse ratio is 0.03% for example.   Done.  

Don't forget to diversify and rebalance.  When the market is volatile like it has been you can rebalance a lot. It's like getting free shares.  

 

[thegeneral 3,345]

12 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Your expenses is the one thing you have full control over. But they like to hide them. Look at the transactions, sometimes you find them in the yearly summaries.  Call them and ask.  

Or just move it all to self directed anyway. It's not rocket science. VOO expesnse ratio is 0.03% for example.   Done.  

Don't forget to diversify and rebalance.  When the market is volatile like it has been you can rebalance a lot. It's like getting free shares.  

 

I do have VOO in my yearly IRA. Not sure why I haven’t thought to check Schwab’s fees. They are probably taken my cash with a big smile on their face

[Horseman 2,621]

9 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I do have VOO in my yearly IRA. Not sure why I haven’t thought to check Schwab’s fees. They are probably taken my cash with a big smile on their face

A decade ago for sure. I think lately they've gotten better, but, I'm not sure because the fees arent real transparent. Just take control of all of it, you're smart enough.  Then you know for sure.  Low cost index funds. Fidelity has ZERO cost mutual funds because they're trying to compete with vanguard. When you got the big guys competing over 0.03% you know you're winning. 

[Horseman 2,621]

I'd be interested to know if anyone has figured out what the expenses are for say a 2040 target date fund at Fidelty/Schwab/Etc. 

[Horseman 2,621]

And for those that don't know any 2040 target fund is just an about 85-15 split of equity and bond funds.   Changes based on the fundamentals of risk the closer you get to retirement.  You can totally do it yourself. 

[Horseman 2,621]

Oh and Trump just signed an EO telling these retirement plans to allow stocks and even crypto inside the plans. Even though most allow a self directed option anyway. Most people just don't know any better. Hopefully it will shed some light if nothing else. 

[thegeneral 3,345]

24 minutes ago, Horseman said:

A decade ago for sure. I think lately they've gotten better, but, I'm not sure because the fees arent real transparent. Just take control of all of it, you're smart enough.  Then you know for sure.  Low cost index funds. Fidelity has ZERO cost mutual funds because they're trying to compete with vanguard. When you got the big guys competing over 0.03% you know you're winning. 

So took a quick peak, on my phone so is a PITA…

Looks like my largest funds are a bit of a mixed bag…FXAIX is very good. OSMYX my second largest one is mediocre. Could do better on that one. Will have to look at the rest later.

Unless they are hiding other fees.

I think their big vehicle for making money on fees my company’s set up was to get people to move into these things that they controlled completely. Some Morningstar thing that moved risk down as you age. Those def seemed to be a bit of a ripoff as they charged a decent amount to run them. 

[thegeneral 3,345]

18 minutes ago, Horseman said:

And for those that don't know any 2040 target fund is just an about 85-15 split of equity and bond funds.   Changes based on the fundamentals of risk the closer you get to retirement.  You can totally do it yourself. 

This is the thing I just described in my post above. My 401k was charging large fees to do this when I looked into them when they were first offered to us.

[Horseman 2,621]

2 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

So took a quick peak, on my phone so is a PITA…

Looks like my largest funds are a bit of a mixed bag…FXAIX is very good. OSMYX my second largest one is mediocre. Could do better on that one. Will have to look at the rest later.

Unless they are hiding other fees.

I think their big vehicle for making money on fees my company’s set up was to get people to move into these things that they controlled completely. Some Morningstar thing that moved risk down as you age. Those def seemed to be a bit of a ripoff as they charged a decent amount to run them. 

Yep. OSMYX is 1.13% just for the fund. On top of anything Schwab is charging.  GET OUT!   You can pay a guy to manage your funds full time for 1.0%.  Complete rip off. Jesus. 

Comparatively FZIPX is ZERO cost. Do you know how to use portfolio visuliazer?  I'm on my phone right now or I'd show you.  You can find a fund that does the exact same thing without the expense.

I wouldn't pay anything really, but, more than 0.5% for an actively managed fund is stupid. Just know index funds outperform managed funds 80% of the time and you can get them for next to nothing. 

 

 

[Horseman 2,621]

FXAIX is the type of fund you should be looking for.  If you want to send me a list I'll ferret out low cost ones that do the exact same thing if you want

[thegeneral 3,345]

3 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Yep. OSMYX is 1.13% just for the fund. On top of anything Schwab is charging.  GET OUT!   You can pay a guy to manage your funds full time for 1.0%.  Complete rip off. Jesus. 

Comparatively FZIPX is ZERO cost. Do you know how to use portfolio visuliazer?  I'm on my phone right now or I'd show you.  You can find a fund that does the exact same thing without the expense.

I wouldn't pay anything really, but, more than 0.5% for an actively managed fund is stupid. Just know index funds outperform managed funds 80% of the time and you can get them for next to nothing. 

 

 

Yep. Even with that the OSMYX one is rated midrange in terms of fees in that category.

People always trying to get over.

I will be moving that one into my self directed next week. Thanks.

[thegeneral 3,345]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

FXAIX is the type of fund you should be looking for.  If you want to send me a list I'll ferret out low cost ones that do the exact same thing if you want

I would appreciate that. I will PM you.

Or if it’s a website type thing that spits it out I can save you the trouble. 

[Horseman 2,621]

37 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I would appreciate that. I will PM you.

Or if it’s a website type thing that spits it out I can save you the trouble. 

It is a website, free. I'll respond and show you with an example when I sober up. I'm hoping FZIPX and OSMYX are close, they should be.  

[easilyscan 957]

3 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

I've doubled my net worth (from $50 to $100) since mid April  

White privilege

[Horseman 2,621]

On 7/30/2025 at 4:52 PM, Horseman said:

Feds leave interest rates alone. Suck it poors.  

Economy is humming along too well.  Everyone now thinking interest rate cuts start next month.  Good problem to have I guess.  

[lickin_starfish 1,961]

Fúck is happening this morning? Cryptos all dropped off a cliff, stock futures taking a poop, and precious metals down too. 

[Ron_Artest 1,769]

6 minutes ago, lickin_starfish said:

Fúck is happening this morning? Cryptos all dropped off a cliff, stock futures taking a poop, and precious metals down too. 

treasuries rose giving pause to the idea of a rate cut.

[RLLD 4,275]

20 hours ago, Horseman said:

Economy is humming along too well.  Everyone now thinking interest rate cuts start next month.  Good problem to have I guess.  

I think it too soon for a rate cut.  The economy is OK, I am not suggesting its fixed yet. Its improving but has some road to cover, my fear is that in the first quarter of next year we see all this foundation laying start to manifest and the economy is going to soar, so we need to be careful with rates.....

[easilyscan 957]

7 hours ago, Ron_Artest said:

treasuries rose giving pause to the idea of a rate cut.

Right. 
A two-day rally on mild inflation data lost steam after July's Producer Price Index came in well above expectations.

Tell all your critics to fock off Mr. Powell. If anything, rates should be higher. 

 

[easilyscan 957]

Fairly quiet day. Own 300 shares FSLR in a taxable account since 2016. Up bigly today, so I sold 3 of these contracts.

https://www.imagebam.com/view/ME150FIR

Anyone else make moves today ?

[Maximum Overkill 2,181]

On 8/14/2025 at 8:52 AM, Ron_Artest said:

treasuries rose giving pause to the idea of a rate cut.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released more good news about our nation's vibrant economy. Gross domestic product grew a healthy annual rate of 3% in the second quarter after recording a less than 1% decline in the first three months of this year. Fears of a recession should now dissipate like morning haze after the sunrise.

Nearly all markers of a strong economy are in top form. Unemployment is low, hovering at 4.1%. The past three months have seen steady job growth. Average hourly earnings for U.S. workers grew 3.7% 

Thanks to President Donald Trump's bold policies, it appears that the United States will avoid a recession this year − one that so many liberals were predicting only months ago.

Will Democrats put politics aside and applaud as the American economy shows a strength and resilience that so many of them doubted? Probably not

.

 

[Horseman 2,621]

On 8/8/2025 at 5:26 PM, Horseman said:

I'd be interested to know if anyone has figured out what the expenses are for say a 2040 target date fund at Fidelty/Schwab/Etc. 

Ha!  Stumbled across them for the target date funds my company had provided.  Expenses ranged from .250% to .380%. Fidelity 

Not as bad a 10 or 15 years ago I'm sure, but, still a third of a percent for nothing that you can't do yourself real easily.  

[Horseman 2,621]

On 8/8/2025 at 6:09 PM, thegeneral said:

I would appreciate that. I will PM you.

Or if it’s a website type thing that spits it out I can save you the trouble. 

Here is an example.  FXAIX vs VOO

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&sl=4sTi6A7QPN0KG6qHH6RQQS

You can see they are the exact same thing.  You have to zoom in on the graph to even tell it's two different lines.  Use this tool to find funds that are the same or similar with lowest expense ratios as possible.

[thegeneral 3,345]

44 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Here is an example.  FXAIX vs VOO

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&sl=4sTi6A7QPN0KG6qHH6RQQS

You can see they are the exact same thing.  You have to zoom in on the graph to even tell it's two different lines.  Use this tool to find funds that are the same or similar with lowest expense ratios as possible.

I looked into this after your post a couple weeks back. Luckily only 2 of the funds my plan offers that I was in were hosing me. Moved out of them. Thanks again for bringing this up.

Have had AAPL, NVDA, AMZN, GOOG lined up to sell off portions to rebuild the cash wall but haven’t pulled the trigger yet. Every time I get ready to do it I chicken out

[Horseman 2,621]

52 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I looked into this after your post a couple weeks back. Luckily only 2 of the funds my plan offers that I was in were hosing me. Moved out of them. Thanks again for bringing this up.

Have had AAPL, NVDA, AMZN, GOOG lined up to sell off portions to rebuild the cash wall but haven’t pulled the trigger yet. Every time I get ready to do it I chicken out

If it helps just remember every index funds has plenty of those 4 companies without the risk of owning them individually.  

[thegeneral 3,345]

15 minutes ago, Horseman said:

If it helps just remember every index funds has plenty of those 4 companies without the risk of owning them individually.  

Yeah. Have just had them for a while and have done me well. When I look at longer term projections they always have big numbers predicted. Not the safe play for sure. 

[lickin_starfish 1,961]

Would ya just look at that silver spot price? Look at it! 

[easilyscan 957]

2 hours ago, lickin_starfish said:

Would ya just look at that silver spot price? Look at it! 

Over $41 WOW!

Very thankful that I went on a 1964 JFK 1/2 dollar buying spree in 2017.

The downside.........Inflation

Store of Value: Gold and silver are considered tangible assets, meaning they have intrinsic value. As inflation erodes the purchasing power of paper money, investors buy gold and silver to maintain their wealth. 

Hedge Against Currency Devaluation:
When the value of a country's currency decreases due to inflation, these precious metals become more attractive as a way to protect against this loss in value. 

Historical Precedent:
Periods of high inflation, such as the 1970s, have historically coincided with significant increases in the prices of gold and silver. 

 

 

 

 

[Ron_Artest 1,769]

U.S. Stocks Are Now Pricier Than They Were in the Dot-Com Era - WSJ https://share.google/yU9IrK3JiUZPWNQEK

 

[avoiding injuries 1,626]

1 hour ago, Ron_Artest said:

U.S. Stocks Are Now Pricier Than They Were in the Dot-Com Era - WSJ https://share.google/yU9IrK3JiUZPWNQEK

 

https://tenor.com/bknah.gif 

[Horseman 2,621]

2 hours ago, Ron_Artest said:

U.S. Stocks Are Now Pricier Than They Were in the Dot-Com Era - WSJ https://share.google/yU9IrK3JiUZPWNQEK

 

https://media1.tenor.com/m/riKvVZ2Et-cAAAAC/dumb-huh.gif

 

[Gepetto 1,395]

Stock inflation. Haha

[Horseman 2,621]

It's CRASHING!  Tariffs! No taco!

[easilyscan 957]

7 hours ago, Ron_Artest said:

U.S. Stocks Are Now Pricier Than They Were in the Dot-Com Era - WSJ https://share.google/yU9IrK3JiUZPWNQEK

 

The companies responsible for a large % of the S&P 500's gains may be more concentrated than ever, but the current PE ratio of 30x (while far higher than the historical average of 15)  isn't near the highs of 2001 2009 & even 2020.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nobody 2,742]

15 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

The companies responsible for a large % of the S&P 500's gains may be more concentrated than ever, but the current PE ratio of 30x (while far higher than the historical average of 15)  isn't near the highs of 2001 2009 & even 2020.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

He's a beer guy not a stock guy.  

[Cdub100 3,957]

We might see the market drop a little bit with interest rate cuts. I'm guessing that will be short term. Continued up and to the right

[Ron_Artest 1,769]

29 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

The companies responsible for a large % of the S&P 500's gains may be more concentrated than ever, but the current PE ratio of 30x (while far higher than the historical average of 15)  isn't near the highs of 2001 2009 & even 2020.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

 

Correct, not at all time highs, but they are historically high, which is what the article pointed out.

[easilyscan 957]

38 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

Correct, not at all time highs, but they are historically high, which is what the article pointed out.

Article title: U.S. Stocks Are Now Pricier Than They Were in the Dot-Com Era

This isn't true. Dot-Com Era bubble as measured by the S&P 500 PE ratio peaked at 46 in December 2001. That ratio currently stands at just under 30. 

 

[easilyscan 957]

Wall Street isn't impressed with the plan to break up of Kraft Heinz. Down 70% since the merger was completed 10 years ago. Talk about a marriage made in hell.

Quote of the day in yahoo comments.

Old Man Sage: 
They combined promising to make money & value.  Now they split promising to make money & value.  
See the problem? 

 

[Ron_Artest 1,769]

14 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

Article title: U.S. Stocks Are Now Pricier Than They Were in the Dot-Com Era

This isn't true. Dot-Com Era bubble as measured by the S&P 500 PE ratio peaked at 46 in December 2001. That ratio currently stands at just under 30. 

 

The dot com bubble burst in March 2000.  The era was the late 90s till the burst.  It was 28.5 when it burst.  The article is not wrong.