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Aaron Rodgers on his Rookie WRs

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7 minutes ago, justforbeer said:

Lol!

Has anybody taken the time to actually look at what Rodgers has made some wide receivers look like in a season.

Can you say Jordy Nelson? Dude had a 4.55 40 and had monster years! He was a solid route runner, yes, But he was crafty on the field. I am going to tell you a lot of his yards and scores were on broken plays. That is where Rodgers has a ton of success. Scrambling and then chucking it 40 yards.

Rogers likes big plays. Lazard does not have the talent that Doubs has. 

ironically lazard 40…….4.55

Doubs 40……4.47

Christian Watson is another deep sleeper that the second half of this year may end up having some success..

He is a monster at 6’5 and runs a sub 4.4 40 yard dash.  He is just way behind due to his preseason injuries.

Romeo has the breakaway speed during broken plays that’s going to do very well in this office. You will see. 

lots of WR's who played with Rodgers had the best seasons of their career with him tossing them the ball.

the point most are making on here is most of those breakouts are in year 2 or year 3.   not year 1.    

if WR were having year one breakouts doubs would be drafted way earlier than he is.

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2 minutes ago, justforbeer said:

Lol!

Has anybody taken the time to actually look at what Rodgers has made some wide receivers look like in a season.

Can you say Jordy Nelson? Dude had a 4.55 40 and had monster years! He was a solid route runner, yes, But he was crafty on the field. I am going to tell you a lot of his yards and scores were on broken plays. That is where Rodgers has a ton of success. Scrambling and then chucking it 40 yards.

Rogers likes big plays. Lazard does not have the talent that Doubs has. 

ironically lazard 40…….4.55

Doubs 40……4.47

Christian Watson is another deep sleeper that the second half of this year may end up having some success..

He is a monster at 6’5 and runs a sub 4.4 40 yard dash.  He is just way behind due to his preseason injuries.

Romeo has the breakaway speed during broken plays that’s going to do very well in this office. You will see. 

How many of those Jordy Nelson's put up great production in year 1?

Adams had 900 yards in his first 2 seasons COMBINED

Jordy had 1200 yards in his first 3! Seasons.  COMBINED

Where do you guys get this stuff? It is remarkable.

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2 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Very confusing post. On the one hand you mention that Jordy Nelson had a 4.55 40 but had monster years with Rodgers, but Lazard with similar speed won’t? Why? What rookie WR had a big year with Rodgers as QB? Has there ever been one?

I believe that Aaron Rodgers stage in his career will look to a rookie more for opportunities than in the past.

That is just my belief. 

I think taking Lazard middle rounds and Doubs late is a good move because you’re getting them both late in the draft.

I just have a gut feeling that Doubs could start having some really big games after about a quarter of the season if he and Rodgers build some connection.

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When the pads go on and the games count, Rodgers is going to war with the experienced players in that locker room.

As a fan I would just feel good about Doubs and Watson getting up to speed by years end.   Making a few splash plays on the way with their 20 snaps a game.

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We have Tampa Gepetto caught up on the fact that Lazard has had 2 100 yard games and light production in the first 4 seasons of his career.

Yet if you take out year 1 of Lazard where he was plucked off thr Jags practice squad and didnt see action....he has similar if not better numbers than Nelson and Adams through 2 and 3 years.  I mean what are we talking about here fellas?

Donald Driver had 0...ZERO...100 yard games in his 1st 3 seasons.  Do you guys know where he ranks in all time Packers recieving yards? Wanna take a guess?

Disclaimer: dont try and say I am calling Lazard any of those guys.  He doesn't have to be to out perform his ADP by a margin.

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26 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

We have Tampa Gepetto caught up on the fact that Lazard has had 2 100 yard games and light production in the first 4 seasons of his career.

Yet if you take out year 1 of Lazard where he was plucked off thr Jags practice squad and didnt see action....he has similar if not better numbers than Nelson and Adams through 2 and 3 years.  I mean what are we talking about here fellas?

Donald Driver had 0...ZERO...100 yard games in his 1st 3 seasons.  Do you guys know where he ranks in all time Packers recieving yards? Wanna take a guess?

Disclaimer: dont try and say I am calling Lazard any of those guys.  He doesn't have to be to out perform his ADP by a margin.

Good because he’s not those guys.  

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53 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

How many of those Jordy Nelson's put up great production in year 1?

Adams had 900 yards in his first 2 seasons COMBINED

Jordy had 1200 yards in his first 3! Seasons.  COMBINED

Where do you guys get this stuff? It is remarkable.

it is certainly possible Lazard has a breakout in his 4th season.

but you also have to keep in mind, all the WR above were high draft picks.  mostly in round3 or better.

Lazard from what I can tell was undrafted.   so the ceiling on him wasnt projected to be where it was with these other players.    so he theoretically had further to go before becoming an impact player.    he likely will improve this year, but its also possible hes getting close to his potential.   this might be as far as it goes.

all I'm saying is hes a bit risky.   we dont know if hes reached his ceiling or if he has a ways to go still.

from what I can tell, this green bay situation is a crapshoot across the board.     its nice to buy into the lottery at the right price.   key words being At the right price.

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Just now, Ray_T said:

it is certainly possible Lazard has a breakout in his 4th season.

but you also have to keep in mind, all the WR above were high draft picks.  mostly in round3 or better.

Lazard from what I can tell was undrafted.   so the ceiling on him wasnt projected to be where it was with these other players.    so he theoretically had further to go before becoming an impact player.    he likely will improve this year, but its also possible hes getting close to his potential.   this might be as far as it goes.

all I'm saying is hes a bit risky.   we dont know if hes reached his ceiling or if he has a ways to go still.

from what I can tell, this green bay situation is a crapshoot across the board.     its nice to buy into the lottery at the right price.   key words being At the right price.

Driver was a 7th round pick.  But thats basically the point.   These higher drafted WRs took 2 ot 3 years to carve out a roll and produce.  So why is it insane that Lazard took 4 yeard to carve out a roll.   His 1st season was basically a throw away stuck on the PS.  

He is reaching his potential? Ok thats fine.  I am mot claiming Lazard is going to end up in the Packers HOF or blossom into Davante Adams.  The whole point is he now as the opportunity to catch way more passes.  This little concept seems like run of the mills when you guys talk RB usage and touches.  Yet when CLEARLY Lazard is going to see a huge uptick in looks/tocuhes and is now the number 1 WR for Rodgers.....it is some brain buster.  

If he gets targets like a run if the mill number 1....does he have to have elite skills in order to produce a good fantasy year? 

You think the WR room is a crapshoot?  I suggest you go look at interviews from Rodgers.  It is quite clear who his guy is right now.  Crapshoot? Lol. This is not rocket science.   Lazard is in more of his prime than Cobb or Sammy.  He is 1 of 2 guys that have good experience with Rodgers in this system.  And Rodgers himself said Lazard is thr number 1 and was excited to get to work with him at the start of camp.  I mean it can't be spelled out anymore than that.  

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2 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Driver was a 7th round pick.  But thats basically the point.   These higher drafted WRs took 2 ot 3 years to carve out a roll and produce.  So why is it insane that Lazard took 4 yeard to carve out a roll.   His 1st season was basically a throw away stuck on the PS.

given where he was drafted, its not unreasonable at all to expect him to breakout later.

sometimes I think our expectations around rookies is too high.   in the old days it took typically 2-3 sometimes 4 years for a drafted WR to break out.  now we expect it in one or two years.   I dont know if thats reasonable for anyone outside of your first round selections, but that seems to be the standard now.

That said, Watkins has the same problem the rookies have.  he doesnt know how rodgers wants him to play and hes learning the same things they are.  some of the concepts hes previously learned on other teams, but hes also got a learning curve ahead of him.

Cobb just isnt that good.   I dont think hes a threat to Lazards workload so hes not worth the discussion.

but the room is a crapshoot.  there are questions about every WR in that Receiver room.      rookies, vets from other teams who maybe have underperformed, the perceived frontrunner was an undrafted free agent who has never proven to be anything better than a high end WR3 or possibly a low end WR2)  now we are expected to draft him as green bays wr1.  obviously we have no proof it will work out.   its a leap of faith.

so yeah, its a crapshoot.

Someone in that room will produce.  I have no doubt of that.   we just dont know who it will be.

Lazard is as good a bet as anyone in that room but it is not a lock by any means.   if you go by talent alone, Watkins should be the guy, but hes also been (to this point in his career) one of the bigger wastes of talent the NFL has ever seen. 

Rodgers also said hes gonna have to trust some rookies more than he has in the past.  that makes some think Doubs or Watson is the guy.  

there is an argument for each player in that room     thats why I'm calling it a crapshoot.    

pick who you want.   all I'm saying is this is one of those cases where you shouldnt overpay for any WR on this team.

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2 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Lazard - DND :bench:

What’s your thoughts about Golladay? 

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7 hours ago, weepaws said:

What’s your thoughts about Golladay? 

Terrible signing, he won't be drafted by me anywhere. Toney is the play with Sterling when he is healthy

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1 hour ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Terrible signing, he won't be drafted by me anywhere. Toney is the play with Sterling when he is healthy

Thanks, what about Robinson, any thought about how he might be used this season? 

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2 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Terrible signing, he won't be drafted by me anywhere. Toney is the play with Sterling when he is healthy

this sure looks to be the case.   Apparently other than one Day when Golladay felt like playing, hes been terrible in camp from what I've heard.

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23 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

I mean what are we talking about here fellas?

If the Packers were SO CONVINCED like you are about Lazard, how come they only gave him a 1 yr / $4M deal?

If the Packers were SO CONVINCED like you are about Lazard, how come they drafted not 1, but 2, WR's in the first 4 rounds of the draft?

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In my keeper league, I'm targeting Watson.  In my other 2 money leagues, one is my 8-team office league.  I doubt I take any GB WR in that league.  In my other money league, there are roster restrictions and we can only carry 5 WR's.  I'd probably draft Lazard as my WR4 or WR5.

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That’s were I like Lazard wr5.  

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well you cant draft him as a starter.   he just may not perform.   at least as a backup you are not counting on a performance other than maybe to cover for byes and injuries, but you are hoping for more.

all you need is for them to be an adequate backup.    The bar is lower there.

last year this guy was probably only rostered to cover bye weeks and maybe even then he wasnt rostered.   to now count on him to start and be a productive fantasy starter is asking and expecting too much.

its reasonable to expect him to have a larger role and probably better production than hes had in prior years.   Thats why hes now going to be rostered in all leagues.   but this is really a prove it year for him.

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1 minute ago, Ray_T said:

well you cant draft him as a starter.   he just may not perform.   at least as a backup you are not counting on a performance other than maybe to cover for byes and injuries, but you are hoping for more.

all you need is for them to be an adequate backup.    The bar is lower there.

last year this guy was probably only rostered to cover bye weeks and maybe even then he wasnt rostered.   to now count on him to start and be a productive fantasy starter is asking and expecting too much.

its reasonable to expect him to have a larger role and probably better production than hes had in prior years.   Thats why hes now going to be rostered in all leagues.   but this is really a prove it year for him.

I think he would be a decent flex play most weeks.

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34 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think he would be a decent flex play most weeks.

and thats fine.   you probably have other players that can slip into that slot if he isnt performing or has a bad matchup.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If the Packers were SO CONVINCED like you are about Lazard, how come they only gave him a 1 yr / $4M deal?

If the Packers were SO CONVINCED like you are about Lazard, how come they drafted not 1, but 2, WR's in the first 4 rounds of the draft?

You seem to not be following anything I am saying.

Why do you bold CONVINCED?

They lost 2 starters dude....why did they draft WRs? Is that a real question? Lmao

Why did the Steelers draft Pickens when they have Dionte anf Claypool? Lol.  Your arguments are so weird.  Do they think Dionte and Claypool suck?

Let me try one last time then I am done wasting time on this.  I will say it real slow.

#1 WR on a good offense with a QB who lioes him.

Subtract Adams and his 169 targets and endless endzone looks.

Subtract MVS.

Equals.  Stay with me here.  Equals!  A shlt ton more targets on a good team.  Wah-La! Did you catch that?    Are you going to ask me why he is making 4 million this year again?   Are you going to act like I am calling him a top 20 WR again and again?  Are you going to ask me why they drafted WRs when their room lost 2 starters? 

This is the twilight zone I tell ya.  

We will see we can revisit.  I am not going to sit here and repeat this anymore only for you to make weird arguments and skirt the only argument I made.  

Opportunity = Production.  Just like it dors for a RB.  Which you guys have no problem understanding.   You don't have to be the most skilled back in the league to produce if you get touches.  

 

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The dumbest argument in here lol.

If Lazard is so good why did they draft a 2nd and 4th round WR!?

Ummmmm one of the best WRs in thr leagur left their team....lol. Along with their deep threat.   Lol again.

I am talking about a redraft.......by the way.  Perhaps you are thinking about a Dynasty league.  

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calm down.   people want to get to the bottom of this and there is no easy explanation here.

currently yes hes the #1 WR.    but obviously if he doesnt produce in that role, he will be quickly demoted.   I've seen it happen plenty of times

not criticizing  just pointing out this isnt a lock.

you should be drafting him near his ADP (in this case maybe a bit sooner to make sure you get him if you really want him)

but hes probably the lowest ranked WR1 in the nfl for a reason.   he hasnt proven he can produce as a WR1.

he will have better corners covering him than hes had in the past too.   so its an adjustment.   But he also has one of the Best QB in the history of the NFL throwing him open at times so there will most definitely be more targets and more yards on the table if he is up to the task.

given his past production it is fair for others to be questioning whether hes the guy.   I'd argue its not unreasonable.

its also possible that the team has other ideas and they just are not giving us any clues as to what we should expect.    Teams can be sneaky this time of year because they are likely hoping to catch a defense offguard with whatever they want to try.    sometimes this time of year they put up a depth chart that reflects what people think is true, but the actual depth chart in the coaches book says something different.

obviously we can only make our choices based on what we know.   we cant go into the coaches head and pull out his game plan.  if we could we could all become millionaires on the sports betting sites.

I like that there are multiple arguments and multiple people taking each side of the argument.  it means we are covering the bases.

and everyone is entitled to an opinion.    so lets use this for what it is supposed to be and keep an open mind.   we all want to know who to pick in Green Bay because if we pick right, we are getting a WR1 at a serious discount.

There is opportunity here.   so lets keep the debate.   just keep it civil and lets keep talking

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Just now, Ray_T said:

    but obviously if he doesnt produce in that role, he will be quickly demoted.   

No 

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2 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

No 

sorry dude thats the way the NFL is.

if he comes out and lays an egg the first couple weeks, there is a fair chance hes not the WR1.     Teams need their top players to perform.  thats the way of things.

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1 minute ago, Ray_T said:

sorry dude thats the way the NFL is.

if he comes out and lays an egg the first couple weeks, there is a fair chance hes not the WR1.     Teams need their top players to perform.  thats the way of things.

He has performed for 3 years.  How does a team demote him from their number 1 WR? You are saying he will be out of the starting lineup?  There is zero chance of that.  Zero.  They love him and what he brings.  Anyone qho watches the Packers knows this.  Rodgers focking hates rookies.  

 

 

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6 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

He has performed for 3 years.  How does a team demote him from their number 1 WR? You are saying he will be out of the starting lineup?  There is zero chance of that.  Zero.  They love him and what he brings.  Anyone qho watches the Packers knows this.  Rodgers focking hates rookies.  

 

 

I disagree.   he performed at a WR3 level.  not a WR1 level.  if he had produced 1000 or even 800 yards 3 straight years, hed have a longer leash.

but hes produced 477, 451 and 513 yards in his 3 seasons playing (I'm ignoring the rookie season where he barely played)

if he cant produce at a pace that would get him close to 1000 yards they wont let it continue for more than a couple games.   I dont disagree he will probably be getting his shot, but they wont stand for the current production if it continues.  thats not good enough to remain a WR1 and they wont have the patience to wait that out for too long for him to figure things out.

Wrs producing less than 800 yards as a WR1 generally get replaced.   most sooner.  some later but the ones who get replaced later usually have a track record of producing as a WR1

Lazard wont be  given extra time.  he hasnt earned it.   if hes not working out as a WR1 they may make him into a WR2 and see how he fits in there.

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2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I disagree.   he performed at a WR3 level.  not a WR1 level.  

I wont read any further.   Because he was basically the number 3 and they had this guy named Davante Adams there.  Oh he didn't perform as a WR1? No shlt!

Holy hell.  All i can do is laugh at this point.  What is going on here?  I feel like I am going insane reading these posts.  

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49 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

You seem to not be following anything I am saying.

Why do you bold CONVINCED?

They lost 2 starters dude....why did they draft WRs? Is that a real question? Lmao

Why did the Steelers draft Pickens when they have Dionte anf Claypool? Lol.  Your arguments are so weird.  Do they think Dionte and Claypool suck?

Let me try one last time then I am done wasting time on this.  I will say it real slow.

#1 WR on a good offense with a QB who lioes him.

Subtract Adams and his 169 targets and endless endzone looks.

Subtract MVS.

Equals.  Stay with me here.  Equals!  A shlt ton more targets on a good team.  Wah-La! Did you catch that?    Are you going to ask me why he is making 4 million this year again?   Are you going to act like I am calling him a top 20 WR again and again?  Are you going to ask me why they drafted WRs when their room lost 2 starters? 

This is the twilight zone I tell ya.  

We will see we can revisit.  I am not going to sit here and repeat this anymore only for you to make weird arguments and skirt the only argument I made.  

Opportunity = Production.  Just like it dors for a RB.  Which you guys have no problem understanding.   You don't have to be the most skilled back in the league to produce if you get touches.  

 

So what are you saying Lazard is going to get?  Numbers.

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6 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

So what are you saying Lazard is going to get?  Numbers.

I have stated already in here I believe.  Upside is like 80/1050/12. His floor is where his ADP is at maybe higher... of course all depends on health.  

We can all br skeptical and have an opinion but these are the facts.

-2 starting WRs are gone from last years team. 

-one was amongst thr most targeted WRs in the league.

-Lazard currently is the best WR on roster and Rodgers called him the number 1.

-Rodgers says Lazard can do a lot and feels comfortable their chemistry (is it Adams chemistry? No not saying that)

-Packers have one of the best QBs in league who traditionally locks onto certain guys and hates rookies and people running wrong routes

Those are the facts.  You guys can use them anyway you want and hold out hope a rookie 4th round WR carries the WR room. 

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4 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

I wont read any further.   Because he was basically thr number 3 and thry had this guy named Davante Adams there.  Oh he didn't perform as a WR1? No shlt!

Holy hell.  All i can do is laugh at this point.  What is going on here?  I feel like I am going insane reading these posts.  

I think you are getting  bent out of shape for no good reason.

he hasnt proven he can be a WR1.  thats the point.    hes getting his shot, he might prove he belongs there he might not.

we dont have the ability to read the future, but as I mentioned before.... if hes not getting it done there, someone else will get their shot.  thats the way pro sports works.  Thats reality....you dont have to agree.  you can go draft him in the 4th round if you want.  or even in the first.   I'm just saying this is not as much a sure thing as you seem to think it is.

I figure hes getting 3-4 games to show he truly belongs there.   even then it may be a 1-1A situation with someone else and the better performer eventually becomes the #1 guy.

we dont know what the coach has planned.   so we will have to wait and see and speculate on how this will shake out.

 

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1 minute ago, listen2me 23 said:

I have stated already in here I believe.  Upside is like 80/1050/12. His floor is where his ADP is at maybe higher... of course all depends on health.  

We can all br skeptical and have an opinion but these are the facts.

-2 starting WRs are gone from last years team. 

-one was amongst thr most targeted WRs in the league.

-Lazard currently is the best WR on roster and Rodgers called him the number 1.

-Rodgers says Lazard can do a lot and feels comfortable their chemistry (is it Adams chemistry? No not saying thay)

-Packers have one of the best QBs in league who traditionally locks onto certain guys and hates rookies and people running wrong routes

Those are the facts.  You guys can use thrm anyway you want anf hold out hope a rookie 4th round WR carries the WR room. 

So you're saying his ceiling is a WR1 and his floor ADP is a WR4.  Wow, way to go out there.  LOL

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1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

So you're saying his ceiling is a WR1 and his floor ADP is a WR4.  Wow, way to go out there.  LOL

and that is why you dont draft him as a WR1 for fantasy.   Low floor high ceiling

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I had to drop Romeo Doubs in one of my leagues, because someone dropped Brandon Aiyuk and I'd rather have him.

But I was really hoping to be trotting out Doubs by mid-season as another Elf precognitive pick.

Now I hope he sucks.

lol

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Just now, Ray_T said:

and that is why you dont draft him as a WR1 for fantasy.   Low floor high ceiling

Exactly.  The guy hasn't had a lot of targets or catches in a season.  His best year was last year, where he was a JAG.  Sure, he may produce more because Adams left, but he hasn't shown anything to say he'll be much better than a slight uptick.  So with extra volume, instead of being a low end 3 / high end 4, he's now a high end 3.  He's a decent player.  Decent players fall for upside.  He doesn't have upside.  I think the Packers are going to spread the ball around a lot more than he thinks they will and they'll all be around 70 to 80 targets.  I even think that Tonyan stays healthy, he's going to lead the team in targets and TD's.  I don't think any veteran pass catcher on this team has more than 8 TD's.

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12 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

So you're saying his ceiling is a WR1 and his floor ADP is a WR4.  Wow, way to go out there.  LOL

Thats the way floors and ceilings work.  When your floor is where your ADP is that means it is a fairly safe pick with tons of upside.   

The whole point of me in this thread is to say Lazard's ADP seems way low.  When your floor is his ADP or higher like I stated....then yeah his ADP is low.  

I gave you the numbers of what I think he can to if healthy.

High floor.  With a pretty nice ceiling if Rodgers decides to lock onto him like he tends to do.  = a steal at his ADP

 

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1 minute ago, listen2me 23 said:

Thats the way floors and ceilings work.  When your floor is where your ADP is that means it is a fairly safe pick with tons of upside.   

The whole point of me in this thread is to say Lazard's ADP seems way low.  When your floor is his ADP or higher like I stated....then yeah his ADP id low.  

I gave you the numbers of what I think he can to if healthy.

High floor.  With a pretty nice ceiling if Rodgers decides to lock onto him like he tends to do.  = a steal at his ADP

 

So, Lazard will fall somewhere between a WR1 and WR4.  I think I'll use that when ever somebody asks a question about a player.  "Well, I can tell you this, I think he'll finish somewhere between a 1 & a 4".  🤣  Dude, I'll be right, like 95% of the time!

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Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

So, Lazard will fall somewhere between a WR1 and WR4.  I think I'll use that when ever somebody asks a question about a player.  "Well, I can tell you this, I think he'll finish somewhere between a 1 & a 4".  🤣  Dude, I'll be right, like 95% of the time!

Ok.  Here you go.  I won't give you any range of outcomes.  He will be a WR2 if healthy for most of the games.  

In my eyes he is safe to cover his ADP with a good amount of room for upside.  

You think he has no upside because he didnt get targeted over Davante Adams.  That is fine.  We will see.  

Also lol at Tonyan leading in targets.  In 16 games in his breakout year he had 59 targets.  He doesn't get volume and they play several TEs depending on situation.   

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Maybe Rodgers is just gassing him up.  Maybe he knows he has no one he can throw to and is just being nice since Rodgers never speaks his mind.  You guys can decide.   Good luck at your drafts.  

“I really think Allen is ready to make a jump and be a No. 1 receiver,” Rodgers said. “He has a lot to prove, I think, to himself and other people and maybe to the team as well. So I like a hungry Allen Lazard.”

Entering the final year of his contract, the 26-year-old said he’s been waiting his whole life for a chance to prove he can be a go-to player.

“Since I was 16 years old, when I committed to Iowa State, this is the vision I saw, this is the vision I had,” Lazard said. “I never knew how I’d get here. I didn’t know I’d have to go through Jacksonville and fight my way up the roster to get to this point. But I knew eventually that I would be here.”

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Lol no other football player  ever thought the same, what a testimony. 

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