*2023 June Mock Draft No-Hassle Analysis*

[Fumbleweed 426]

Dan:

1.01- RB Christian McCaffrey, SF
2.12- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. 
3.01- WR Jaylen Waddle, Mia. 
4.12- RB Miles Sanders, Car. 
5.01- TE T.J. Hockenson, Min. 
6.12- WR George Pickens, Pit. 
7.01- QB DeShaun Watson, Cle. 
8.12- QB Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.
9.01- WR Jahan Dotson, Was. 
10.12- RB Tyler Allgeier, Atl. 
11.01- RB Kenneth Gainwell, Phi. 
12.12- WR Chase Claypool, Chi. 
13.01- TE Trey McBride, Ari. 
14.12- RB Chase Edmonds, TB
15.01- D/ST, New York Jets
16.12- K Greg Zuerlein, NYJ

Analysis: Most years in fantasy football, having the first pick means you get fantasy's most dominant player hands down. This year, however, there is no hands down best player as all of the top players have flaws including Christian McCaffrey whose injury history is quite significant. That said, it's hard to argue against the idea that McCaffrey has the highest floor of any player when healthy and can carry a pretty lofty ceiling to go along with that. In what has become a fairly traditional approach to team building in recent years, Dan then proceeded to load up on another running back, a trio of wide receivers and a stud tight end prior to finally addessing the QB position in Round Seven. The result is a deep team at WR even as I wouldn't consider St. Brown or Waddle true WR1s, especially in a non-PPR league. I also think when both are healthy, Tua will outscore DeShaun Watson more weeks than not and provide Dan with upside at that position despite him waiting a while to address it. The second half of Dan's draft felt a little funky to me with some higher risk selections like Allgeier (who is likely only valuable if Bijan Robinson gets hurt), Claypool, and Edmonds. In the end, though, this team looks very much like a contender if its top RBs can stay upright. The initial eight rounds of picks contain firepower galore. 

Key to No-Hassle Success:  McCaffrey and Sanders between the twenties have proven to be big time contributors over the years when they're on the field. The question, especially for Sanders, is whether or not he will score touchdowns. I think he's a lock for 1,200-1,500 total yards from scrimmage, but I question how often Carolina will include him in their goal line packages. The receiving corps appears to be solid in terms of reliability and as wide receivers get hurt less than running backs, the odds are good there that Dan will get production all year long from that group that he can be proud of. It's the running back depth, thus, that I'm most concerned about for reasons already noted. Seventeen games or close to that number from both McCaffrey and Sanders might get this team a championship. But, health is never promised and in the case of both, it might be a desperate wish more than anything else. As I hate when teams don't get to see what they could have been, here's hoping I'm dead wrong about the fragility of both. 

Favorite Pick: Despite all I've said about Sanders, I thought he was a steal at 4.12. Like steal of the draft kind of steal if he remains on the field. Carolina has proven they can run the ball no matter who lines up in the backfield and Sanders is an upgrade over everyone who toted it for them during the second half of last season. I also loved the Tagovailoa pick. He has such elite weapons and that should carry him to a top ten finish easily among quarterbacks. Stacking him with Waddle just seems like a recipe for some scoring bursts- in other words, a very smart best ball stack. 

Least Favorite Pick: I would have liked a RB3 for this team that has more guaranteed touches as I don't think that applies to Allgeier, Gainwell, or Edmonds. In addition, George Pickens was a tad early for my liking, but the upside of the pick is hard to deny, so can't hate on it all that much. 

Overall outlook: Dan did nice work in this draft of recognizing best available positional talent at each turn. For example, WR talent was stronger at the 2-3 turn than any of the RBs available at that time and Dan didn't stray from that reality one bit in acquiring both St. Brown and Waddle. This team really doesn't have a weak spot as Dan's willingness to turn around so quickly after picking his first quarterback in order to grab his second really shored up what could have been his weakest position. All of the guys in this draft are well above average when it comes to fantasy football acumen, but that doesn't mean every team in the draft is above average compared to all the others. This one, however, is just that. Very solid job by Dan the man. 
 

Robb:

1.02- WR Justin Jefferson, Min. 
2.11- RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE
3.02- WR Chris Olave, NO
4.11- QB Lamar Jackson, Bal. 
5.02- RB J.K. Dobbins, Bal. 
6.11- RB Javonte Williams, Den. 
7.02- WR Drake London, Atl. 
8.11- TE David Njoku, Cle. 
9.02- WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. 
10.11- RB Damien Harris, Buf. 
11.02- QB Russell Wilson, Den. 
12.11- TE Dalton Kincaid, Buf. 
13.02- D/ST, San Francisco 49ers
14.11- WR Jameson Williams, Det. 
15.02- WR Nico Collins, Hou. 
16.11- K Brandon McManus, Jax. 

Analysis: The quandary of how early to take Justin Jefferson in a redraft this season is something many people are going to have to wrestle with. In the end, Robb decided there was no need to let Jefferson slide past the second overall pick and followed that selection up by bolstering the running back position with three of his next five picks. Throughout the draft, Robb was willing to let youth be served as he picked five players who are either rookies or were rookies in 2022. Some like Smith-Njigba and Kincaid could take time to grow into roles with their respective teams, so their part in this team enjoying success may come later in the season as opposed to earlier. Also, one has to wonder if last year's J.K. Dobbins is found in this year's Javonte Williams. Dobbins never got quite right last year and Williams is no guarantee to get right this year either. The fact that neither Denver nor Baltimore added a stud to their backfields, though, bodes well for a comeback season from one or both. Rounding out the 2022 disappointments looking to rebound in 2023 are QBs Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. Whether or not their stock will be back up this season depends on the eye of the beholder. Clearly, Robb is a comfortable beholder in that regard as presses forward with his team full of risks. 

Key to No-Hassle Success:  With Javonte Williams being eased in most likely at best, Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games, and Russell Wilson looking to figure out what Sean Payton expects from him in addition to the aforementioned duo of receiving rookies, this team has to survive September and early October without falling too far behind. I think Derek Carr and Chris Olave will find chemistry early on, but even that connection carries with it some uncertainty. In the end, with Jefferson's production a near lock, I'm looking at Stevenson and Dobbins as the barometers for this team's success. A great start to the season from Jefferson won't be nearly enough to keep this team in the top half of the league standings, but that combined with strong starts from Stevenson and Dobbins probably will. Beyond that, the maturing of all the young players on the team in November and December should give Robb a strong closing kick. He just can't be too far behind when that wave finally comes to shore. 

Favorite Pick: I'm still scratching my head trying to figure out how J.K. Dobbins fell to the fifth round. Yes, I know Lamar Jackson threatens to take away runs and TDs on the ground, but with Robb having snatched up Jackson as well, he's guaranteed all of that ground production sans whatever scraps Gus Edwards picks up. I also thought that David Njoku was the last tight end prior to a significant drop-off at that position, so kudos to Robb for not letting him slip past him. Finally, Kincaid was worth the risk once Njoku was acquired as his upside in Buffalo is undeniable. 

Least Favorite Pick: There was nothing egregious to be sure, but Javonte Williams comes with some real risk, especially if Samaje Perine shows out early in the season. Additionally, I have nothing against Drake London, but I have some real question marks about the goy throwing him the ball. 

Overall outlook: It's fun to draft a young team with upside and having the biggest "sure thing" in all of fantasy football after just one pick allows a team manager to take such risks. That said, at risk of being redundant, I do think this team struggles a bit out of the gate. There is a pretty heavy dependence initially on Baltimore's offensive output and as such, what the Ravens can do offensively in September might ultimately mirror the rise or fall of this team. One thing I can quarantee, though: Wherever Robb ranks in the standings after nine weeks will be bettered during the second nine weeks. This looks like a team that will surge late as has been previously noted and the recommendation thus is not to dare sleep on them. Not even a wink. 
 

Fumbleweed:

1.03- RB Austin Ekeler, LAC
2.10- RB Breece Hall, NYJ
3.03- QB Patrick Mahomes, KC
4.10- WR D.J. Moore, Chi. 
5.03- WR Christian Watson, GB 
6.10- WR Mike Williams, LAC 
7.03- WR Christian Kirk, Jax. 
8.10- TE Pat Freiermuth, Pit.
9.03- RB Jamaal Williams, NO
10.10- RB Zach Charbonnet, Sea. 
11.03- QB Jared Goff, Det. 
12.10- TE Greg Dulcich, Den. 
13.03- RB Jaylen Warren, Pit. 
14.10- D/ST, Buffalo Bills
15.03- K Daniel Carlson, LV
16.10- WR Skyy Moore, KC

Analysis: Mine was the first of four teams to begin their draft with RB-RB in the first two rounds. It's a "strategy" if you will that used to be more popular than it is now as the pool of reliable non-committee running backs has shrunk each year to the point of greater value being placed elsewhere, especially in Round Two. Beyond that initial duo, I added the top quarterback on my board and then scrambled like crazy to try to put together a decent receiving corps with what was available in Rounds Four-Seven. All in all, this should be a team that can compete all year long as long as that receiving corps doesn't weigh down the ship too much. Being the first manager to pick a quarterback will almost always lead to something of a deficiency in other areas of the roster, but I also think QB is underrated in this draft every year and having a guy that will put up 30 points plus more weeks than not was not something I was willing to pass on once we got to Round Three. Breece Hall had the look of superstar prior to getting hurt last season, but there's no guarantee post-injury that he'll look the same this year. That means that Mahomes and Ekeler could have to do some heavy lifting given the overall uncertainties at WR and TE. This team has a lot of potential for greatness, but there are some obstacles to overcome in that pursuit to be sure. 

Key to No-Hassle Success:  The wide receivers on this team don't have to be a top-five unit league-wide, but they probably need to finish in the 6-8 range to keep championship hopes alive. Sure, Mahomes and Ekeler are very nearly "sure things" from week to week, but the wide-outs are anything but. D.J. Moore has the potential to blow up (in a good way) on a new team with a game plan built around him, but receivers on new teams always carry risk. In addition, while Christian Watson looked fantastic at times as a rookie, that was with a Hall of Fame quarterback throwing him the ball. Now, it's Jordan Love. And, Mike Williams and Christian Kirk were solid last year, but each will face stiffer competition for targets this year with Quentin Johnston and Calvin Ridley now onboard respectively. I think this is a top three team at QB and at RB, but what they end up being at WR will ultimately float the boat or sink it. I really liked my later round picks, so maybe that's a path out of purgatory also if the receivers falter. 

Favorite Pick: I am very high on Ekeler this year, so it was a pleasure to land him at 1.03 and not have to wade through a half dozen options beyond that pick. However, what I liked best about my draft was that I hit on WR targets in four consecutive rounds without having to miss out on a single desired player. Further, if Alvin Kamara misses time, Jamaal Wiliams could be a ninth round steal in my estimation. That combined with the upside of Charbonnet and Warren gave me the upside in reserve at RB that I was looking for. 

Least Favorite Pick: I miscalculated on tight end a bit and ended up with a player I don't feel great about in Freiermuth. Had trouble choosing between him and David Njoku and I'm still not sure I made the right choice. In the end, I might should have gone TE sooner to avoid such a lukewarm state. 

Overall outlook: No one ever comes out of this draft believing that they have assembled the ideal team and my beliefs are consistent with that reality. I really like the fact that the top QB and RB on my personal board both made it on my team, but I also realize that if Breece Hall struggles to return to form and/or if the Jets become pass-happy with Rodgers at the controls, those two "stars" may have to carry a lot more water than any two players should have to. I do think picking four wide receivers in a row restored balance to this team, but I still may not have a single top-20 WR on the roster when all is said and done. That can make a manager pretty uneasy even if the potential for so much more runs parallel to that fear. 
 

Ray Lewis' Limo Driver:

1.04- RB Saquon Barkley, NYG
2.09- RB Travis Etienne, Jax.
3.04- QB Josh Allen, Buf. 
4.09- WR Keenan Allen, LAC
5.04- RB Dameon Pierce, Hou. 
6.09- WR Chris Godwin, TB 
7.04- TE Kyle Pits, Atl. 
8.09- WR Marquise Brown, Ari. 
9.04- RB Antonio Gibson, Was.
10.09- QB Aaron Rodgers, NYJ
11.04- WR Rashod Bateman, Bal. 
12.09- WR Jakobi Meyers, LV 
13.04- RB Kendre Miller, NO
14.09- K Justin Tucker, Bal. 
15.04- TE Dawson Knox, Buf. 
16.09- D/ST, Pittsburgh Steelers

Analysis: Ray's draft was a carbon copy of mine through four rounds as we each chose the exact same positions in Rounds One-Four to get our drafts off the ground. From there, while I opted to try to put together a worthy WR group to jump onboard, Ray valued a strong third running back and second tier tight end as his targets alongside a couple of receivers. As a result, Ray likely has a receiver room with more questions than mine, but also higher floors as Allen and Godwin are proven contributors and even though Marquise Brown is on a bad team, he will be that team's top option with DeAndre Hopkins having left for other pastures. All in all, the running back group is the heart and soul of this team, though, along with stud QB Josh Allen and if Barkley re-joins the Giants happy and healthy prior to training camp, Ray should be good to go. The question is: Will Barkley return to the team in that state? Brian Daboll wants to build on all the success the Giants had last season and he no doubt knows it will be impossible to do that without Barkley back as a primary weapon. Ray no doubt felt comfortable thus that the Giants will make things right long before September as he purposefully chose Barkley as the cornerstone of his team. This team is loaded with ta above average talent at every position sans WR. And, there's room to grow in that regard even so. 

Key to No-Hassle Success:  Let's state the obvious before we get into the more subtle stuff. Saquon Barkley needs to be in the Giants' lineup from Day One signed to a new contract. Additionally, Kyle Pitts needs to take a major leap forward from what was a bitterly disappointing 2022 campaign. There's no indication yet that Pitts can find the end zone more than a few times a season, and that needs to change for Ray to be able to say he's getting value from where he selected him. Obviously, this team is a little light at WR, but much like my team, there will also be 30+ points a week coming from the QB spot to supplement whatever the receiving corps does or does not do. The question about how soon is too soon to take a quarterback will always be a part of fantasy football discussion, but in the case of this year's "big three", Round Three seemed like an ideal place to load up on the best the position has to offer. Barkley and Pitts are thus keys, in my opinion, but there are reinforcements should they not thrive as a safety net. 

Favorite Pick: Instead of going WR-WR in Rounds Four and Five to make up for not having any through three rounds, Ray chose the best  player available at the time regardless of position in Dameon Pierce. Sure, Pierce is on a bad team, but he was impressive for most of last season and should be even better given another year to learn his role in the overall offensive scheme. As third RBs go, you simply can't do much better than Pierce. Also, kudos to Ray for having the guts to take Josh Allen early. His production over the past three years makes him more than worthy of that pick. 

Least Favorite Pick: I fully expect Travis Etienne to be the victim of some "load management" if you will and see him thus as more of a third round value than a second. Also, Keenan Allen is competing for targets more than ever and Godwin could have Baker Mayfield throwing him the ball. Hmmm...

Overall outlook: Since I believe the drop-off after McCaffrey/Ekeler/Jefferson is significant, I wouldn't really want to be picking fourth in the draft if all three of those guys are already off the board. Barkley seems like a bit of a shaky foundation to me thus and since Etienne isn't a favorite of mine either, this team had me questioning it a bit through two rounds. But, then things really rounded into form in the rounds that followed to the point that I believe this team is similar to mine, but also potentially better than mine in spots, specifically at TE and RB3. Ray could have gone WR-WR-WR-WR as I did from Round Four on, but I think he chose reason over panic and very much to his benefit. This team could make noise all year long. 
 

Remote Controller:

1.05- RB Jonathan Taylor, Ind. 
2.08- WR CeeDee Lamb, Dal. 
3.05- RB Aaron Jones, GB 
4.08- WR Amari Cooper, Cle. 
5.05- RB Cam Akers, LAR
6.08- WR Terry McLaurin, Was. 
7.05- TE Dallas Goedert, Phi. 
8.08- QB Daniel Jones, NYG
9.05- QB Geno Smiith, Sea.
10.08- WR Courtland Sutton, Den. 
11.05- RB Devon Achane, Mia. 
12.08- WR Tyler Boyd, Cin. 
13.05- RB Ezekiel Elliott,  FA
14.08- TE Jelani Woods, Ind. 
15.05- K Harrison Butker, KC
16.08- D/ST, Green Bay Packers

Analysis: Someone always has to be the last team to select a starting QB and this year, Remote ended up being that guy. Like Dan, he chose to pick another QB immediately after picking his first, though, so the integrity of the position was at least preserved in that pairing for best ball purposes. As is the case with most managers who choose riskier signal callers in the middle rounds, though, Remote stocked up on talent prior to at all the other positions. Everything logical suggests that Jonathan Taylor should bounce back strong from a disappointing previous season and the threesome of Lamb, Cooper, and McLaurin is fantastic. Throw in the ideal high floor RB2 that is Aaron Jones and you've got a team that gained much from the sacrifices made at QB. In terms of the strengths of the overall roster, there is balance between what Remote has at RB and what he has at WR and that is something that's easy to say you want in this draft, but often is difficult to obtain. Every player picked in the first half of this draft felt like he was taken a little later than he should have actually been picked. That's always a good thing. In the later rounds of the draft, Remote ceded control of his team due to a personal crisis, but his helper did no harm with a mixture of safe and higher upside picks rolled into one. All in all, this is a first class unit. 

Key to No-Hassle Success:  I don't think the duo of Daniel Jones and Geno Smith will ever be asked to carry this team metaphorically speaking, but they need to at least be serviceable. For Jones, that means the rushing prowess that he displayed during the latter part of last season must be carried over into this season as well. I think Remote will finish top five in receiving points and if Akers doesn't get jumped on the Ram depth chart at RB by a Dalvin Cook signing, I think top five in rushing points is highly likely to. Throw in a top five scoring TE and all the ingredients for championship contention are thus there if QB does not become the Achilles heel. It's always hard to know how two QBs of nearly equal value will complement each other in any format, but especially best ball and that's why Remote's outlook is capped just a bit. Should Jones or Smith take another step forward this year, though, and you've got a team ready to blow the top off this league and maybe even win the whole thing. 

Favorite Pick: The first half of this draft was gold in my opinion. As I like Jonathan Taylor much more than Saquon Barkley, I would've been thrilled to get him with the fifth overall pick. I also thought the WR value really dropped off after Lamb, so nabbing him as a WR1 to complement Taylor really seemed ideal to me. I was hoping against hope that Lamb would fall two more spots to me actually. Finally, Amari Cooper should be even better in his second year in Cleveland than he was in his first. I thought he should have been picked nearly a round earlier and loved that pick as a result. 

Least Favorite Pick: Cam Akers and Devon Achane would be easily de-valued if Dalvin Cook were to become a Ram or Dolphin and Akers is on my do not draft list. I can't help but think the Rams will bring in another RB to at least form a committee with him.  Maybe they don't...we shall see. 

Overall outlook: It's rare that I really think ideal picks were made in six of the first seven rounds, but that's the case here as I like everything Remote did (sans maybe the Akers pick) between Taylor and Goedert. His receiver group ranks among the league's best in my estimation, but he didn't have to sacrifice a strong run game or a top tier tight end to get it. This team could test the theory that QB is so deep that one's starter really doesn't matter all that much, but the league winner in my most significant league last year rode Daniel Jones all the way to a title, so maybe he's being vastly underrated as is. Whatever the case, this team is almost a near lock to finish in the top half of the league in my opinion and kudos to Remote for making so many timely picks. 
 

ICEMAN:

1.06- TE Travis Kelce, KC
2.07- WR A.J. Brown, Phi. 
3.06- QB Jalen Hurts, Phi. 
4.07- RB James Conner, Ari. 
5.06- WR DeAndre Hopkins, FA 
6.07- RB David Montgomery, Det. 
7.06- RB Alvin Kamara, NO
8.07- WR Mike Evans, TB
9.06- WR Brandin Cooks, Dal. 
10.07- RB Jerick McKinnon, KC
11.06- QB Derek Carr, NO 
12.07- RB Chuba Hubbard, Car. 
13.06- WR Adam Thielen, Car. 
14.07- D/ST, New England Patriots
15.06- K Tyler Bass, Buf. 
16.07- TE Mike Gesicki, NE

Analysis: One of the biggest questions again this year post-draft in leagues nationwide is going to be...how does the Travis Kelce team look? Kelce was not only the sole non-RB/WR picked in the first round of this draft. He was also the only one picked in the first two rounds. The Kelce team should have a big edge on all other teams at tight end as he's in a completely separate tier at that position. But, can one still field a strong team at the other positions with Kelce first off the board? One thing is for sure. ICE didn't take his foot off the gas and make dull picks thereafter. He chose to pair Kelce instead with one of the most explosive QB-WR stacks there is in the form of Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown. Once that was in place, it became a rescue mission to get some running backs in the fold and the result was kind of the antithesis of what White Wonder did. James Conner is a solid RB3 this season and more likely a serviceable RB2 given likely rushing volume. But as a RB1, he's a fish out of water. Will Alvin Kamara be around early on to help him out? When will DeAndre Hopkins actually hook up with a team? And, is the trio of Evans, Cooks, and Thielen simply too old? There are question marks aplenty on a team that was constructed in a unique way and will as such be a fascinating watch in the fall. 

Key to No-Hassle Success:  As I feel fairly certain that the top three picks here are going to produce at high levels, it just comes down to whether or not the running group implodes for this team. David Montgomery looks like a safe bet to be in Detroit what he basically was in Chicago, but the other RBs on the roster carry some risk. Conner will be utilized often, but on a team that could be worst in the league. To be plain, Alvin Kamara needs to avoid a lengthy suspension and play a key role in the Saints' offense for ICE to rank anything but last or next to last in points produced via running back. And as was already noted, this team lacks youth. Jalen Hurts and Brown are the only players on the team still ascending in terms of level of play and fantasy value and that is sometimes a recipe for a fade during the second half of the season when high upside youthful players begin to surpass. One of the noted veteran receivers needs to have one more great trip around the sun, I think, to keep this team competitive. Looking at  you, Evans and Cooks...

Favorite Pick: I think DeAndre Hopkins could be a steal at 5.06 provided he gets on a team that will be able to properly utilize what he has left. Having a spry Hopkins alongside A.J. Brown gives ICE one of the better 1-2 punches at WR in the league. Opinions vary, however, on how much Hopkins actually has left in the tank. I think he has enough that the pick was a solid one. Additionally, the drop for me from Jalen Hurts to Jackson/Burrow is pretty steep. So, getting Hurts in the middle of Round Three was an excellent understanding of how the tiers line up at that position. 

Least Favorite Pick: There wasn't any one pick that I didn't like, per se. I just think it's best to sprinkle a little youth into every redraft and this team completely lacks that element. No younger running backs and aside from A.J. Brown, no younger receivers would make me a bit nervous. 

Overall outlook: Given the uncertainties that exist around Alvin Kamara and DeAndre Hopkins, this team looks a little disjointed to me. It was hard to tell as the draft went on exactly what ICE was trying to do other than take the best players available in the first three rounds and then hold on for dear life after that. This would not be a team I would be personally comfortable with coming into September, but ICE has a long history in this league of generating tremendous success with unconventional rosters, so who am I to ultimately judge that? This felt more like a draft from the 11 or 12 spot given some of the built-in risks. Maybe it's a collection of players that all come together this fall to form a cohesive unit. We'll wait and see. 

Shovelheadt:

1.07- WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. 
2.06- WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ
3.07- RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. 
4.06- QB Joe Burrow, Cin. 
5.07- RB Isiah Pacheco, KC
6.06- RB A.J. Dillon, GB 
7.07- TE Darren Waller, NYG
8.06- RB Samaje Perine, Den.
9.07- WR D.J. Chark, Car. 
10.06- WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, KC
11.07- QB Kenny Pickett, Pit. 
12.06- TE Sam LaPorta, Det. 
13.07- WR Odell Beckham, Jr., Bal. 
14.06- RB Michael Carter, NYJ
15.07- K Evan McPherson, Cin. 
16.06- D/ST, Cincinnati Bengals 

Analysis: If you're new to this draft, you might be thinking "Does this guy like the Bengals or what?". Yes, Shovel is a Bengals guy and yes, he always seems to take his fair share of Cincinnati players, but the question is "Did he reach in order to obtain them?" The big two are obviously Chase and Burrow and in both cases, I don't think he reached at all. It's a stack similar to what ICE has in Hurts and Brown except instead of using picks two and three to get them, Shovel used his first and fourth picks. That made his selections at two and three quite critical and the result was another team with major question marks at RB, but strength pretty much everywhere else. Gibbs, Pacheco, Dillon, and Perine are all guys who could contribute in meaningful ways, but no one is going to look at them as a group and say they're ideal to say the least. Truth be told, the reason that group is a bit underwhelming is that Shovel put tremendous faith in Garrett Wilson in selecting him in the second round. Shovel could have gone RB there and placed Gibbs in more of the RB2 role, but he didn't and now he's got a team that's going to rely on two young star receivers above all else to succeed. It was the  ninth round before he grabbed any other receivers, though, so Chase and Wilson better come to play. 

Key to No-Hassle Success:  I think it's those two picks, again, sandwiched between Chase and Burrow. Sometimes, it takes time for a rookie RB to find his footing, particularly in relation to a team's blocking scheme. Additionally, second year wide receivers sometimes take a step backwards before re-emerging in their third year in the league. Both of those possible outcomes really do make Gibbs and Wilson the keys to this team's fate. One wild care to consider also is TE Darren Waller. The Giants traded for him for a reason and may intend on making him the central figure in their passing attack. If that ends up being the case, it would take some pressure off of Gibbs and Wilson to gel quickly with a new team and new quarterback respectively. I also think Burrow staying healthy is critical for this team as Kenny Pickett is not a guy I'd want to lean on for fantasy output this season. I do like that Shovel mixed in youth and veterans, though and that should allow for a decent scoring flow in a best ball format. 

Favorite Pick: In hindsight, I should have picked Goedert or Waller at 7.03 and I didn't. My loss was Shovel's gain as I thought the addition of Waller at that point in the draft may prove to be a game changer if he lives up to his potential in being the second or third best fantasy TE in this draft. The two Lion rookies also made sense given the upward trajectory of that Lions offense. Sometimes, when you see a train going fast, you hop onboard so you can enjoy the ride. I don't if Gibbs and LaPorta will fit in seamlessly or at all. But, I know the potential is there and Shovel refused to pass that potential up. Good for him. 

Least Favorite Pick: Since we don't know who Aaron Rodgers will develop chemistry with, I thought Wilson was picked too early. Just one man's opinion. I would be concerned that Rodgers will lean too heavily on the familiarity of Allen Lazard. I have Wilson as an early third rounder, value wise.

Overall outlook: I have always found it fascinating how similar side-by-side teams often look in this draft. Just as my team and Ray's team bear a striking resemblance to one another, so too do Shovel and ICE's team. Neither guy really prioritized running back early on, opting instead to build around a QB-WR stack and a top shelf tight end. Only in Shovel's case, the tight end came at a much cheaper price allowing for a few more potential stars to jump onboard in the process. We're all still adjusting to life with no real "stud" running backs, so perhaps a draft like this one is simply ahead of its time. But, I'm not willing to throw in the towel on the running back position yet and as such, this is a team of intrigue but also some concern. 

Worm:

1.08- RB Derrick Henry, Ten. 
2.05- WR Davante Adams, LV
3.08- WR Devonta Smith, Phi. 
4.05- RB Dalvin Cook, FA
5.08- QB Justin Herbert, LAC 
6.05- RB Rachaad White, TB 
7.08- WR Michael Pittman, Ind. 
8.05- WR Gabriel Davis, Buf. 
9.08- TE Dalton Schultz, Hou.
10.05- RB Raheem Mostert, Mia. 
11.08- QB Matthew Stafford, LAR 
12.05- TE Tyler Higbee, LAR
13.08- RB Jerome Ford, Cle. 
14.05- D/ST, Philadelphia Eagles
15.08- WR Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG
16.05- K Greg Joseph, Min. 

Analysis: How much does one believe that Derrick Henry has left in the tank? That's the question many managers will be asking this summer as they contemplate taking the superstar with their pick in the second half of first rounds everywhere. There's little doubt that defenses key on Henry and for the most part, he's been able to overcome that over the years. But, I remember how quickly Shaun Alexander, another power back, faded once he hit the wall and I could see that wall coming for Henry sooner than later. I hope I'm wrong as  he's been a joy to watch in recent years. Once Worm committed to Henry, it became about putting together a unit that wouldn't require Henry to ultimately carry the team. And, I think Worm has done that and then some with the additions of Adams, Smith, and Herbert. Adams has first round talent and ability, but is scaring off some with the change at QB in Las Vegas. I think that's a mistake and I think teams are going to be kicking themselves for allowing Adams to fall as far as he did. There's also not another WR more well suited to be a sidekick to a star than Devonta Smith. Smith is considered the 1B to A.J. Brown, but I think he could end up the 1A by season's end. Throw in a healthy Herbert and I think you've got a formidable team here, at least in terms of what's out front. 

Key to No-Hassle Success:  While it was noted how much four of the first five picks seemed to click together, the pick that hasn't been mentioned yet is the fourth round selection of Dalvin Cook. Cook is a bit of a boom or bust pick given that no one has a clue as of this analysis where he will be playing. And while the same can be said of DeAndre Hopkins, Hopkins looks more certain to get a decent amount of touches than Cook who could end up in a full blown, multi-RB committee. I think Minnesota gave up on Cook too quickly although I acknowledge that his contract no longer fit his level of skill. If he re-emerges this season in a different city, it could be enough to put this otherwise proven team over the top. The later picks in Worm's draft really shored up any depth concerns for me making this team one of the safest bets to contend for a title...unless Cook becomes a bust. Then, your second RB is Rachaad White who, like James Conner, will be playing on a really bad team. That might dampen the optimism just a bit. 

Favorite Pick: Despite my feelings about Henry (see below), I loved this draft primarily because I loved what Worm did in Rounds Two, Three, and Five. I think Adams and Devonta Smith were both steals and I especially feel that way about Herbert who was really limited all season last year due to an injury. Those are three high impact players that I would have loved having on my team. I also liked the pick of Gabriel Davis and Matthew Stafford late. I know many  are down on Davis after last season, but the Bills didn't add a WR to their WR room giving him a second chance to leap forward. 

Least Favorite Pick: This was a bit too early for Derrick Henry for my liking. I do see a Shaun Alexander-like collapse in his near future, although it may not come for another year or two. Not sure how to feel about the Cook pick also given what little is known about his destination at this time. Further, Schultz as a TE1 doesn't excite me much. 

Overall outlook: This team, for me, is loaded with the potential to make a big No-Hassle run. The WRs are explosive, the QB poised to rebound, and the depth sufficient to fill in the gaps when the "stars" have an off week. Two years ago, the RB duo of Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook would have been too good to imagine, but in 2023, that might actually be the only thing holding this team back. Running backs often age quickly and it could be that neither comes close to matching past production, but if they each do have more tread on those tires, watch out for this team as they should soar like an eagle. All of these teams have question marks- some more than others of course- but, don't let that sour you on the possibilities for this dynamic group. 

Matt's Eagles:

1.09- RB Bijan Robinson, Atl.
2.04- RB Najee Harris, Pit. 
3.09- WR Tee Higgins, Cin. 
4.04- WR Jerry Jeudy, Den. 
5.09- RB James Cook, Buf. 
6.04- WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF 
7.09- QB Dak Prescott, Dal. 
8.04- WR Diontae Johnson, Pit. 
9.09- TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, Ten. 
10.04- QB Anthony Richardson, Ind. 
11.09- WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, NE
12.04- RB Devin Singletary, Hou. 
13.09- TE Irv Smith, Cin. 
14.04- WR K.J. Osborn, Min. 
15.09- D/ST, Baltimore Ravens
16.04- K Jake Elliott, Phi.

Analysis: In line with a more modern approach to fantasy team construction, Matt already had three running back and three wide receivers picked before ever even looking at another position. Picking a rookie running back in the first round of a fantasy draft is a pretty rare thing, but there's a case for Robinson to be picked even sooner than this and the upside of the pick is massive even as the next two players Matt took have high floors, but limited ceilings. Safe selections like Harris and Higgins ultimately make sense, though, after you've swung for the fences with a player who's never yet played a down in the NFL. All in all, taking two running backs right off the bat meant that Matt has no true WR1 for fantasy purposes and a starting QB who is outside of the projected top 8. He also has a tight end duo who both carry risk given that they're being drafted more on potential than actual past production at this point. But, the depth at RB and WR make up quite a bit for all of that as having Brandon Aiyuk and Diontae Johnson as your third and fourth wide-outs is icing on top of the cake. There were some guys taken well before their current ADPs (Jeudy, Cook, Richardson), but sometimes you have to go with your gut and take some guys whose careers are still trending up. This draft felt organic and I always like that as a co-participant. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: Robinson is probably the biggest key as even though I'm not as high on Jeudy and Cook as Matt apparently is, he's hedged his bets on both as Cook is not being asked to be anything more than a RB3 on this roster and the presence of three veteran WRs with proven track records in Aiyuk, Johnson, and Smith-Schuster allows the dice roll on Jeudy to be made with comfort and ease. Robinson, though, could be a generational back and in the hands of Arthur Smith, that's a very potent thing. Smith has not shown himself to be an overall offensive mastermind just yet, but he found a way to get 1,000 yards out of Tyler Allgeier last season and may get twice that in yards from scrimmage from Robinson this go around. All that said, if Robinson doesn't rise above what Najee Harris will likely do, this team's lack of high end firepower at QB, WR, and TE could come back to bite them. In other words, Robinson doesn't need to be good or solid or even serviceable. Matt needs him to be great. 

Favorite Pick: Hate to keep talking about one player primarily, but in honesty, Bijan Robinson was my favorite of Matt's picks. I had him going off the board well before Derrick Henry and even Saquon Barkley and I think he has a chance to be special this season in Atlanta. In addition, getting Diontae Johnson two full rounds after Brandon Aiyik just seemed absurd. I know everyone is ready to jump on the George Pickens train sooner than later, but Johnson has been top five in targets in the NFL for years now. Can't allow a target monster like that to fall to the eighth round. Shame on us for doing so. 

Least Favorite Pick: I don't care what the ADP is for Jerry Jeudy. We all saw him end the season last year on something of a tear. So, I can get behind that pick. James Cook? Less so. I think the Bills will bring on one more back prior to training camp and make that backfield a muddy mess. Also, most of Buffalo's rushing TDs go to Josh Allen. 

Overall outlook: This is a high upside team that also may have a pretty high floor. That's an unusual combination coming out of a draft, but like I said, this didn't feel like a draft that Matt conjured up from someone else's cheat sheet. Instead, he got guys who are, again, still on their way up in terms of fantasy and real world value and he hedged all bets with solid choices in the middle and later rounds. Dak Prescott may not be exciting as a starting QB, but his steadiness combined with a few crazy games from Anthony Richardson could be a sneaky good way to score in a best ball format. I think i like this team quite a bit overall, but with Harris's low YPC and Higgins stuck behind Ja'Marr Chase, Robinson must be the team's go to player. 

White Wonder:

1.10- RB Nick Chubb, Cle. 
2.03- RB Josh Jacobs, LV
3.10- RB Alexander Mattison, Min. 
4.03- RB Joe Mixon, Cin. 
5.10- TE George Kittle, SF 
6.03- QB Trevor Lawrence, Jax. 
7.10- WR Tyler Lockett, Sea. 
8.03- WR Kadarius Toney, KC
9.10- WR Michael Thomas, NO
10.03- WR Allen Lazard, NYJ
11.10- QB Jordan Love, GB 
12.03- TE Juwan Johnson, NO
13.10- WR Van Jefferson, LAR
14.03- WR Romeo Doubs, GB 
15.10- D/ST, Kansas City Chiefs
16.03- K Jason Myers, Sea. 

Analysis: Within the realm of a fantasy football redraft, there's conventional, unconventional, and then this conglomerate put together by longtime No-Hassle Leage member, White Wonder. While taking three running backs to open up a draft is hardly unheard of, taking four in a row is a different thing altogether. And, given the fact that this is not a league in which a third running back can be used as a flex starter, its occurrence was downright shocking. It's also the reason many of the other teams appear to be shallow in terms of running back depth as Wonder gobbled up such high end runners right off the bat and then never picked another after the fourth round. Then, not only did Wonder not pick a wide receiver with his first four picks, he didn't actually pick his first until the seventh round allowing for him to find quality starters at QB and TE in addition to the RB stockpile. So, do we call this the "zero WR theory"? After all, zero RB strategies have been around for some time now and this is simply that turned on its ear so to speak. Wonder is throwing all his chips into the pile and defiantly stating that wide receivers are a dime a dozen- a necessary, but not critical piece of the overall puzzle. Or, maybe he just loves the WRs that others have questions about. Whatever the case, this draft was one wild ride. 

Key to No-Hassle Success:  Well, the key to this team's success is something that simply cannot be predicted. How will four running backs who could all finish top ten in rushing points scored score collectively from week to week? Also, can at least two of Wonder's six wide receivers significantly exceed consensus expectations and give him some balance in the every week offering? Wbo are the top candidates to even do that? I would put my money on Toney and Thomas if they can stay healthy with Tyler Lockett also producing his usual early season magic before cooling down the stretch. It is entirely possible that this receiving corps bombs in historic fashion, but if they somehow rise well above expectations, it's hard not to argue for this being a potentially dangerous team. No one will likely outscore Wonder as far as weekly RB points go. And, when you combine Lawrence and Kittle's weekly output, that should be top half of the league as well. Will the WRs then serve as an anchor or a surprise element? Get your popcorn good and ready. 

Favorite Pick: It is difficult for me to understand how Josh Jacobs isn't a first round pick in a non-PPR format. Jacobs led all NFL rushers in yards last season by a wide margin and even though 2023 won't simply be a carbon copy of 2022, Jacobs has his back against the wall likely playing on a franchise contract. Assuming they didn't wear him out last season, I think he'll finish top five at RB and give Wonder a huge boost alongside Chubb. George Kittle was also an extremely forrtunate pick at 5.10. Did he really almost last until the sixth round? Remarkable.  

Least Favorite Pick: I know Wonder is a fan of what Alexander Mattison might do this year in Minnesota given the lead role, but his YPC last season was pretty unimpressive. I would have likely passed on him at 3.10 and taken a WR instead. But, in fairness, Wonder didn't know in advance about Mixon still being availabe in Round Four. 

Overall outlook: In reality, I hate to even speculate about this team. They are so outside of the box that I'm not sure they can be put back in it to even make a prediction about the collective value that they represent. Again, in a league in which a flex is utilized and can be a third running back, all of this makes some sense. As is, though, I think Wonder may have stretched the idea of taking best available player overall to its absolute limits. And so, I will tentatively assign no definitive value to this team as I am truly at a loss to know what sort of success or lack thereof awaits them. If that seems like an evaluative cop-out, I plead guilty. I will say this, though. It is a lot of fun to draft with people who think outside the box on stuff. A lot of fun indeed. 

Vikings4ever:

1.11- WR Tyreek Hill, Mia. 
2.02- WR Stefon Diggs, Buf. 
3.11- RB Kenneth Walker, Sea. 
4.02- WR D.K. Metcalf, Sea. 
5.11- QB Justin Fields, Chi. 
6.02- RB D'Andre Swift, Phi. 
7.11- WR Treylon Burks, Ten. 
8.02- TE Evan Engram, Jax. 
9.11- RB Rashaad Penny, Phi. 
10.02- RB Elijah Mitchell, SF
11.11- WR Elijah Moore, Cle. 
12.02- RB D'Onta Foreman, Chi. 
13.11- QB Bryce Young, Car. 
14.02- TE Taysom Hill, NO
15.11- K Younghoe Koo, Atl. 
16.02- D/ST, Miami Dolphins 

Analysis: Only two teams in this draft began the draft going WR-WR and only one went on to pick another WR in the fourth round as well. That would be Vikes who has put together a WR juggernaut as such as long as Tyreek Hill can keep from doing dumb things when he's angry. One of the more bizarre things that happened also in this draft was the freefall that allowed Vikes to nab Kenneth Walker at the end of the third round. I'm sure Vikes would have preferred not to double dip on Seahawks at that 3/4 turn, but value is value. And so you have a team here that is super strong at one position, has tremendous upside at another (QB), and is solid at a third (TE). Running back is the place where Vikes may see some struggle beyond and/or even including Walker as D'Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny are both now Eagles and thus both vying for the same touches. In theory, grabbing them both insures that a RB2 emerges from the duo, but that assumes the split ends up being 50/50 and not further skewed by Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott's continued presence in Philly. Great teams in this league over the years have come in all shapes and sizes including several WR-heavy units. This one can be the next in line for sure, but Vikes would feel better about his chances if the RB room was sorted out a bit further heading iinto fall. 

Key to No-Hassle Success:  The top two receivers on this team need to stay happy and/or out of trouble. Hill's propensity for rageful episodes was already noted, but Stefon Diggs is also not a happy camper at the moment for entirely different reasons. Seventeen games of Hill and Diggs is a nearly sure path to success, but getting there could be a bit tricky. Then again, it's only June and a lot of things may get worked out well before the season draws near. In addition, Justin Fields needs to take another step forward to make his selection in the fifth a valid commitment. Some believe that Fields will easily match Lamar Jackson in scoring and could end up in the same tier as Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. If that happens, he will have obviously been a huge steal at the spot in which he was taken. Beyond all of that, it's just about the running game coming together as was previously noted. Elijah Mitchell could be a league winner if McCaffrey misses significant time with an injury, so that's something to keep in mind as well. 

Favorite Pick: I really think Zach Charbonnet is going to be a key contributor in Seattle right off the bat, but I don't think he'll cut into Kenneth Walker's workload to the point that I'd let Walker slip to 3.11 in a redraft. You just can't normally get the kind of value Walker represents very often in this draft and it may have been my favorite pick of the whole draft outside of a few of my own. I also liked the strategy of getting both Swift and Penny as both are supremely talented when healthy. If you had told me that Vikes could still get the backfield he got after picking 3 wide-outs in 4 rounds, I would have hardly believed it. 

Least Favorite Pick: I'm a little more concerned about Stefon Diggs that some people seem to be. I think Davante Adams would have been the better pick if Vikes wanted to go WR-WR. Diggs basically griped his way out of Minnesota and now he's at it again. I even like Lamb and A.J. Brown more than him. 

Overall outlook: This is our defending league champion and the only manager who has won a championship based on this draft on four separate occasions. As such, his outlook is always rosy even when his strategies don't fully align with my understanding. In this case, I do see the value in this draft as the upside is immense. Guys like Walker, Fields, Burks, Metcalf, and Elijah Moore are still on the way up in terms of increased roles and production as players. Vikes has tapped into all of them while still adding the surefire talents of studs like Tyreek Hill and Diggs. Again, if Hill and Diggs are good to go for this season, Vikes should be good to go as well. Talent abounds. A title defense awaits. 

Hawkeye21: 

1.12- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR
2.01- RB Tony Pollard, Dal. 
3.12- WR Deebo Samuel, SF 
4.01- TE Mark Andrews, Bal. 
5.12- WR Calvin Ridley, Jax. 
6.01- RB Khalil Herbert, Chi. 
7.12- RB Brian Robinson, Was. 
8.01- QB Kirk Cousins, Min. 
9.12- WR Jordan Addison, Min. 
10.01- TE Cole Kmet, Chi. 
11.12- WR Quentin Johnston, LAC 
12.01- RB Jeff Wilson, Mia. 
13.12- RB Gus Edwards, Bal. 
14.01- D/ST, Dallas Cowboys
15.12- K Jason Sanders, Mia. 
16/01- QB C.J. Stroud, Hou. 

Analysis: The last person to pick his initial player in this draft finally did so by selecting a player who was on a torrid pace last season for a second year in a row before getting hurt and having to be shut down as a result. Cooper Kupp has the potential this season to match the Justin Jeffersons and Ja'Marr Chases of the world and if he does, he won't be the only "comeback" player on this team. At some point in the last three seasons, each of Deebo Samuel, Calvin Ridley, and Mark Andrews were held up as either the best at their position for fantasy football purposes or top five at worst. The addition of Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers roster hampered Samuel's value whiile Calvin Ridley went AWOL and was then suspended for a year for gambling. As for Andrews, his 2022 wasn't a disaster, but it wasn't much to write home about either. The result of all of this is that Hawkeye was able to buy low on players who are being readily questioned this season, but could all rebound in spectacular fashion. To me, it was a brilliant way to handle that final draft slot and while there's a chance each "comeback" player disappoints, it isn't likely given all are still in their prime years, age-wise. Aside from that nucleus, you have a team long on TE talent, short on QB prowess, and young at WR. Eclectic operation to be sure. 

Key to No-Hassle Success:  One player actually seeking to build on a very good 2022 campaign is second round pick, Tony Pollard. Hawkeye is no doubt hoping the Cowboys don't re-sign Ezekiel Elliott such that Pollard's role becomes more muddled again. Even if they do, it's Pollard's backfield now and if he can perform like a true RB1, the talent this team has at WR and TE should allow for high end scoring more weeks than not and a shot at being a championship group. The problem is that no one really knows if Pollard can handle the increased workload physically and therein lies the key to success. Hawkeye is also going to need one of his two mid-round RB picks to pan out in ways that exceed expectations a bit. Khalil Herbert has demonstrated great burst as a runner in the NFL, but like Tony Pollard, has never really been given a feature role until now. Meanwhile, Brian Robinson's role in Washington is still being defined on the fly. All in all, this team must find its identity as a rushing team and find it early. 

Favorite Pick: I thought Cooper Kupp was a great value at 1.12 as the Rams appear poised for a comeback in general and Kupp should be a target monster in that offense once again. I also thought the pick of Cole Kmet in the tenth round was a steal for a guy who really started to show some moxie last season down the stretch. While most teams in the league are going to put up modest totals from their TE duos at best, this team may have a double digit scoring TE two out of every three weeks, which is pretty tremendous. 

Least Favorite Pick: I didn't like how long Hawkeye took to back up his starting QB, Kirk Cousins. The Cousins pick wasn't bad as he's annually underrated from a fantasy perspective, but I would have like to see Hawkeye turn right around and grab another QB in the next round or two. This is not a position of strength for this team. 

Overall outlook: I have no idea if Hawkeye was actually aiming for the "buy low, comeback player" aspect of this team, but it really turned into an identity for the group in Rounds One-Six aside from Pollard. When you are picking from that 12 spot, you often have to do more than just pick the best available player- you need to take on a more bold strategic position and I think Hawkeye did that either consciously or perhaps even subconsciously.  Kirk Cousins has to stay healthy as do a number of other players with recent injury histories, but I would ultimately be satisfied with this team if it were my own. If nothing else, it will fun to see how Hawkeye's powerhouse lineup at WR stacks up against Vikings4Ever's group all season long. 



 

[Fumbleweed 426]

Will be working on this over the weekend. Hope to have it done by Monday afternoon at the latest. 

[ICEMAN 38]

After seeing how things fell after selecting Kelce in the first round, I do not think that I will be employing this plan in my $$$ leagues. The drop-off at RB is just too steep after the 3rd round. That said, I am not sorry about my selections of Brown & Hurts in rounds 2 & 3. I particularly though that I got good value on Brown halfway through the 2nd round. I think that my WR's will be more of a strength than Fumble believes, but we will see. Those guys aren't spring chickens, but have all had success in their past. I think that my best hope for my RB group is mediocrity. I'll keep my fingers crossed that that is enough for my team to succeed.

ICEMAN

[Vikings4ever 496]

As always, thanks for doing this and thanks for running the No Hassle league.

One thing I have to note, both the Hill and the Diggs news broke after I had drafted them, so that's more bad luck than ignoring risk there. If I had to do it over again, I probably would have bitten the bullet on Jacobs in the second.

Beyond that, I'm fairly happy with how my team turned out. Obviously my weak RB trio stands out, and shoring up my RB4/5 cost me a chance to draft a higher upside QB2. But I think my RBs will combine for a serviceable stable, and the rest of the team makes for title contenders.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Thanks for the analysis, Fumble. As always!

As I posted near the end of the draft in the 11-16 discussion thread, I actually question my pick of Jacobs more than my pick of Mattison. I think the quality of WR I could have opted for instead would have been more impactful. Even though I agree with your take on Jacobs lasting that long. In non PPR, I was mildly surprised with how far both Chubb and Jacobs fell. 

As for my WR group, my intention was not to state that WR are a dime a dozen or that I am any more high on my particular picks at the position than other drafters. The resulting team construction was more of a simple product of how the draft fell to me and deciding I was not going to force WR for the sake of forcing WR when certain value (Jacobs, Mixon, Kittle) was staring me in the face. My receiver group bombed spectacularly last year (and I definitely picked Mike Evans in round 3). I don't see a scenario where this collective groups performs any worse. I would expect them to perform better. Especially adding a 6th for depth. 

In that regard, I did take the BB format into consideration a bit more than we are supposed to do while conducting this mock. 

[Fumbleweed 426]

Finished. 

[Fumbleweed 426]

12 hours ago, Vikings4ever said:

As always, thanks for doing this and thanks for running the No Hassle league.

One thing I have to note, both the Hill and the Diggs news broke after I had drafted them, so that's more bad luck than ignoring risk there. If I had to do it over again, I probably would have bitten the bullet on Jacobs in the second.

Beyond that, I'm fairly happy with how my team turned out. Obviously my weak RB trio stands out, and shoring up my RB4/5 cost me a chance to draft a higher upside QB2. But I think my RBs will combine for a serviceable stable, and the rest of the team makes for title contenders.

Correct on Hill and Diggs. I wasn't saying that you willingly dove into that pool at the time. Just that the reality has shifted a bit such that as of this writing, risk is on the rise. I like when bad things happen to your team. Gives the rest of us a fighting chance. 

[Fumbleweed 426]

12 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

Thanks for the analysis, Fumble. As always!

As I posted near the end of the draft in the 11-16 discussion thread, I actually question my pick of Jacobs more than my pick of Mattison. I think the quality of WR I could have opted for instead would have been more impactful. Even though I agree with your take on Jacobs lasting that long. In non PPR, I was mildly surprised with how far both Chubb and Jacobs fell. 

As for my WR group, my intention was not to state that WR are a dime a dozen or that I am any more high on my particular picks at the position than other drafters. The resulting team construction was more of a simple product of how the draft fell to me and deciding I was not going to force WR for the sake of forcing WR when certain value (Jacobs, Mixon, Kittle) was staring me in the face. My receiver group bombed spectacularly last year (and I definitely picked Mike Evans in round 3). I don't see a scenario where this collective groups performs any worse. I would expect them to perform better. Especially adding a 6th for depth. 

In that regard, I did take the BB format into consideration a bit more than we are supposed to do while conducting this mock. 

Really enjoyed your draft. It was fascinating. 

[remote controller 133]

Thanks Fumble.  I like Geno better than Daniel, and feel like Coach Carrol is doing everything possible to make Russ cooking look bad, and that Geno is a chef.  Leading all Qb's in completion % is not a fluke.  I see that Mike is higher on him than most also.

[remote controller 133]

A BIG THANK YOU TO MIKE FOR COVERING FOR ME!!!

[Dan 59]

1.01- RB Christian McCaffrey, SF
2.12- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. 
3.01- WR Jaylen Waddle, Mia. 
4.12- RB Miles Sanders, Car. 
5.01- TE T.J. Hockenson, Min. 
6.12- WR George Pickens, Pit. 
7.01- QB DeShaun Watson, Cle. 
8.12- QB Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.
9.01- WR Jahan Dotson, Was. 
10.12- RB Tyler Allgeier, Atl. 
11.01- RB Kenneth Gainwell, Phi. 
12.12- WR Chase Claypool, Chi. 
13.01- TE Trey McBride, Ari. 
14.12- RB Chase Edmonds, TB
15.01- D/ST, New York Jets
16.12- K Greg Zuerlein, NYJ

Analysis: Most years in fantasy football, having the first pick means you get fantasy's most dominant player hands down. This year, however, there is no hands down best player as all of the top players have flaws including Christian McCaffrey whose injury history is quite significant. That said, it's hard to argue against the idea that McCaffrey has the highest floor of any player when healthy and can carry a pretty lofty ceiling to go along with that. In what has become a fairly traditional approach to team building in recent years, Dan then proceeded to load up on another running back, a trio of wide receivers and a stud tight end prior to finally addessing the QB position in Round Seven. The result is a deep team at WR even as I wouldn't consider St. Brown or Waddle true WR1s, especially in a non-PPR league. I also think when both are healthy, Tua will outscore DeShaun Watson more weeks than not and provide Dan with upside at that position despite him waiting a while to address it. The second half of Dan's draft felt a little funky to me with some higher risk selections like Allgeier (who is likely only valuable if Bijan Robinson gets hurt), Claypool, and Edmonds. In the end, though, this team looks very much like a contender if its top RBs can stay upright. The initial eight rounds of picks contain firepower galore. 

Key to No-Hassle Success:  McCaffrey and Sanders between the twenties have proven to be big time contributors over the years when they're on the field. The question, especially for Sanders, is whether or not he will score touchdowns. I think he's a lock for 1,200-1,500 total yards from scrimmage, but I question how often Carolina will include him in their goal line packages. The receiving corps appears to be solid in terms of reliability and as wide receivers get hurt less than running backs, the odds are good there that Dan will get production all year long from that group that he can be proud of. It's the running back depth, thus, that I'm most concerned about for reasons already noted. Seventeen games or close to that number from both McCaffrey and Sanders might get this team a championship. But, health is never promised and in the case of both, it might be a desperate wish more than anything else. As I hate when teams don't get to see what they could have been, here's hoping I'm dead wrong about the fragility of both. 

Favorite Pick: Despite all I've said about Sanders, I thought he was a steal at 4.12. Like steal of the draft kind of steal if he remains on the field. Carolina has proven they can run the ball no matter who lines up in the backfield and Sanders is an upgrade over everyone who toted it for them during the second half of last season. I also loved the Tagovailoa pick. He has such elite weapons and that should carry him to a top ten finish easily among quarterbacks. Stacking him with Waddle just seems like a recipe for some scoring bursts- in other words, a very smart best ball stack. 

Least Favorite Pick: I would have liked a RB3 for this team that has more guaranteed touches as I don't think that applies to Allgeier, Gainwell, or Edmonds. In addition, George Pickens was a tad early for my liking, but the upside of the pick is hard to deny, so can't hate on it all that much. 

Overall outlook: Dan did nice work in this draft of recognizing best available positional talent at each turn. For example, WR talent was stronger at the 2-3 turn than any of the RBs available at that time and Dan didn't stray from that reality one bit in acquiring both St. Brown and Waddle. This team really doesn't have a weak spot as Dan's willingness to turn around so quickly after picking his first quarterback in order to grab his second really shored up what could have been his weakest position. All of the guys in this draft are well above average when it comes to fantasy football acumen, but that doesn't mean every team in the draft is above average compared to all the others. This one, however, is just that. Very solid job by Dan the man. 

 

First off, thank you, Kirk, for doing this.  Running the draft, staying after all of us when we know you have a schedule, too, is not a small thing.  And then the follow-up with this evaluation gives an immediate gratification, no matter how you feel about our drafts.  It's satisfying to see the evidence of someone really paying attention, and giving an honest feedback.  I'm not sure it's said enough that this step is really looked forward to and appreciated.  To follow this with the No-Hassle is a commendable endeavor, and we're all privileged that you take that on. 

So . . . THANK YOU.

Second, evaluation from what's above:
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I want to off my own assessment, primarily alongside what Fumble has presented, because I don't have a lot to argue with.  

I started the draft with two plans to consider from the very start.  Although I considered Ekeler #1, I knew that I liked McCaffrey better, so the question was, of course, going RB or WR.  I think I nailed that, in large part because of what Fumble assessed about my 2-3 turn.  I rightly evaluated the shortness of high-quality RBs.  This is ironic, because my biggest gaffe in this draft was misevaluating how fast the RBs would dry up.  Granted, White Wonder's unprecedented approach threw a wrench in things, and another 3-out-of-4 to start the draft hurt a bit; but the capper was watching Cook go in the 5th.  That was the evidence of my complete failure to recognize the urgency bent towards RB, and the complete drying up of that tier of RBs between my 4-5 and 6-7 turns put me in a hard place.  I'll reevaluate this, probably a number of times, but at that point, the damage was done, and I knew that RB depth was garbage.  My solution was not to desperately pick them because of the shortfall, but to strengthen elsewhere, and aim at quality potential from what was left.  Talent, even buried, will often out.  Allgeiers and Gainwell are that.  They have shown spark and punch on the field, and I'd rather shoot at those gambles, because it's what I would in a real draft, and use the waiver wire to shore up the clear deficiency.  Edmonds sits behind a guy who's done something once, and has had success himself in the past.  It's a prayer, but it was the best that was going to happen at that point.   But it's a clear weakness because of it.

I tried to not fight the draft, and also tried to make the intentional focus young and upside.  McCaffrey and Watson are the old men, but the team is littered with youth, and that was intentional, though not particularly my comfort zone.  My only early surprise to me was Hockenson.  I hadn't intended to go there, and would have been comfortable with someone like Freiermuth, who I believe is underrated.  I would likely have a little more depth at RB in that case.  And that happened, I would have gone with 4 RBs and taken Ertz to lock up the fluid TE situation in Arizona.  Ah, second-guessing is fun.  Overall, I like the depth in most of my positions, and feel decently even about receiver.  I'll go with talent often and take that risk.  Claypool is listed #3, but as an owner who endured three leagues of Mooney-induced suffering, I'm here to tell you that Claypool is more talented, and the gap isn't small.  If he wakes up, he's a star, and that pick is dynamite.  If he doesn't, he's a #5 WR.  But I won't regret leaving Mooney on the board (or others like him) in favor of him.

I want to separate a defense for Pickens.  I could be wrong, for sure, but I liked getting him.  Yes, I'm a Steelers fan, and having a Steeler doesn't hurt my feelings.  To wit, he was not making it back to 8.12, and he was an actual desire.  In defense of the potential, I offer this.  Diontae Johnson is a very good receiver, and his targets can't be ignored.  But . . . he's going to get the top coverage every week, and he's not Adams or Diggs, dominating defenses regardless.  I think it's reasonable to consider the possibility that he suffers what JuJu Smith-Schuster did when he was defined as the decided #1, finding his numbers drag as a result.  That was when Johnson proved himself.  Now add the likes of a Pickens.  Pickens is the more talented receiver.  He's young, and the expectation might be a year premature, but I've not seen a catch radius like that since OBJ, and I think Pickens is more consistent.  Talent will out, and Pickens is a rising star.  I've not seen questions about his work ethic, so I'm anticipating an upward arc.  Deluded?  I might be.  But I love what I've seen.

OVERALL: Fumble's assessment was really pretty spot on, I think.  Solid starting lineup, especially with best ball handling the QBs.  Depth at RB is more than suspect.  WRs are good to above average (and this is where we'll see).  I think the WRs define what my season will look like.  That and DeShaun Watson, about whom I am optimistic.  I think he could outproduce his QB ranking, and my assessment of that will be on display.  LOL.

REFLECTIVE NOTE: Last year, one pick was retrospectively atrocious: Najee Harris was a lost pick as a first rounder (nice call, Fumble).  And though the plan of trying to find gems later paid off in several areas to save a season, I likely lost the chance to contend because of that pick.  McCaffrey could get hurt again and kill me again, but I'll live with it.  If he stays healthy, I think the gem-finding strategy gives me that hope to compete, and maybe redeem that gross miscalculation.  Here's hoping, anyway.

[shovelheadt 62]

Thanks for the effort with this Fumble. My own opinion...I dislike my team a lot but not sure where it went wrong. Drafting from the dead center position seemed to throw me off. I was always at the tail end of position runs instead of starting the run like I'd prefer. There were also at least 5 guys that got sniped from me a couple picks earlier. And the trifecta was there were at least 3 guys I had to pass on because they had the same bye as a player I already had. Not a horrible team, but a whole lot of average.

[Hawkeye21 1,854]

My plan was not to wait as long as I did to get either of my QBs but with such a long wait till my next pick it was hard to predict the runs.  I was on the wrong end both times I was ready to pick a QB.

[robb 71]

A hearty THANK YOU Kirk/Fumble for your yomans work here on getting it set up, recording selections, and writing up the Analysis!! This is one of the major resons I love the fftoday site and all that Mike does too. I look forward to following my team (where will this occur?) during the season and look forward to the July Mock now.

[remote controller 133]

Thank you Isray and Jonathan Taylor.