June Mock Completed

[RLLD 3,562]

https://fftoday.com/articles/hollis/23_june_mock_analysis.html

Picks By Round

 

[Ray_T 604]

nice job guys

[AxeElf 787]

Bijan at 1.09!!!

[GobbleDog 824]

23 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Bijan at 1.09!!!

Not sure if that you means you like the pick or not... I think it's absolutely insane.

[AxeElf 787]

32 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Not sure if that you means you like the pick or not... I think it's absolutely insane.

I love the pick, but I'm amazed he fell to 1.09!

[GobbleDog 824]

2 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I love the pick, but I'm amazed he fell to 1.09!

Ya know Allgeier is still on the team right?  210 carries 4.9 ypc... 

Bijan has to finish top 5 to justify the pick. And do it with Allgeier on the team, a coach who typically uses multiple backs, and Desmond Ridder at QB... I guess it's possible Bijan could do it, but you're paying top dollar for that bet.

[Ray_T 604]

7 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Ya know Allgeier is still on the team right?  210 carries 4.9 ypc... 

Bijan has to finish top 5 to justify the pick. And do it with Allgeier on the team, a coach who typically uses multiple backs, and Desmond Ridder at QB... I guess it's possible Bijan could do it, but you're paying top dollar for that bet.

well, you are not gonna bench the 8th overall pick to play a Rb Drafted in the 5th round the year prior.... even if he did perform well.   

When they picked him at #8 overall its like turning to Allgeir and saying.... 'Take a seat son'

I could see this being a committee for the first couple games until Robinson gets his feet under him, but you dont draft a guy that early to have him warm the bench.  if hes healthy he will play until he proves he shouldnt be on the field.

Allgeier may be a good candidate for a trade if another team likes him.   But more likely he will get 20-40% of the snaps with Bijan getting most of the work.

Granted you maybe want a better situation if you own Bijan, but if hes lighting it up he will force the team to use him more.   That is what people are betting on.   

I think he starts with 50% of the work and it goes up steadily until it is no longer a committee.    I'm guessing it takes 3 weeks to get to that point.   but obviously some think it happens day 1.   but I had this guy pegged as a first round pick in most formats.   So far I have seen nothing that would make me believe this is an incorrect assessment.

 

[GobbleDog 824]

24 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I could see this being a committee for the first couple games until Robinson gets his feet under him

Gonna make a top 5 finish all that much more difficult. Not to mention... Desmond Ridder.

God bless yall who see the light at the end of the tunnel, because I don't.

[AxeElf 787]

Bijan Robinson has a very good chance of being the #1 RB at the end of the season.

47 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

a coach who typically uses multiple backs

This is patently false.  Arthur Smith had NEVER been a head coach before, but in the two years he spent as the Offensive Coordinator for the Tennessee Titans directly before coming to the Falcons, Derrick Henry had more carries than any other RB in the NFL, and more carries than in any other 2-year stretch of his career.  If anything, Arthur Smith's record has been the exact OPPOSITE of using a committee approach, and I'm sure he is drooling over having the best rookie RB in football to work with.

The Falcons also have an offensive line ranked among the top 5-7 in the league.  They had more rush attempts (559) in 2022 than any other team in football, and rushed for the third-most yards per game at 159.9, with the fourth-most yards per carry (4.9).  As noted, they don't really have a gunslinger at QB.

Only an injury keeps Bijan from top 5, and I don't really see any other RB in the league that has a better path to #1.

 

[GobbleDog 824]

4 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

This is patently false.  Arthur Smith had NEVER been a head coach before

True, he ran Derrick Henry a lot as OC, but he's been head coach for two years now and no RB has had more than 50% carries yet. 

After the Falcons playoff hopes are dashed by mid-season (Desmond Ridder)... I doubt he runs his new RB into the dirt.

[AxeElf 787]

52 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

True, he ran Derrick Henry a lot as OC, but he's been head coach for two one years now and no RB has had more than 50% carries yet. 

Fixed that for you.

His RBs in that one year were Tyler Allgeier, Cordarelle Patterson, and Caleb Huntley; I don't think I'd make a bellcow out of any one of them, either.

But when he spent the 8th overall pick on his new Derrick Henry, he now has a bellcow.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

After the Falcons playoff hopes are dashed by mid-season (Desmond Ridder).

The Falcons' playoff hopes ride on Bijan Robinson, not Desmond Ridder, and Arthur Smith knows it.

[GobbleDog 824]

9 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Fixed that for you.

Arthur Smith was Falcon's coach in '21 and '22 ? 

[Ray_T 604]

22 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Fixed that for you.

His RBs in that one year were Tyler Allgeier, Cordarelle Patterson, and Caleb Huntley; I don't think I'd make a bellcow out of any one of them, either.

But when he spent the 8th overall pick on his new Derrick Henry, he now has a bellcow.

 I think that was the point I was making.   when you are the #1 RB and they spend the first round (#8 overall) pick on another RB,  they are telling you to take a seat cuz you wont be playing much.

 

2 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Gonna make a top 5 finish all that much more difficult. Not to mention... Desmond Ridder.

God bless yall who see the light at the end of the tunnel, because I don't.

you might be right.   but I never drafted him at this point.   in any keeper league format this 100% makes sense.    like I said, it is very possible that his guy is so good that he is a bell cow from day one.

 

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

After the Falcons playoff hopes are dashed by mid-season (Desmond Ridder)... I doubt he runs his new RB into the dirt.

this is also a fair point.   why continue to run the hell out of him once you are out of the playoffs.

 

but I'd also say if they run the ball a lot (as they likely need to do if they want to bring their QB along slowly) Riddler wont likely have the ball in his hands too often when the game is on the line.    Falcons O line has quickly become one of the better lines in the NFL last season.  if they take another step forward they could be one of the best.  Who isnt gonna like a top talent running behind a top O line.

A look back at the Falcons best surprise of 2022: The offensive line -- Falcons breakdown (atlantafalcons.com)

I agree as a rookie the expectations may be higher than they should be.   Not all rookies blow the doors off on day one.   sometimes it can take a while to fully get up to speed.  but that process is usually a lot quicker with a top talent and with a good line (both which seem to be present here)

Personally I think after week 2 or 3 this guy should be taking at least 60% of the offensive snaps and likely a higher percentage of the RB touches.

[AxeElf 787]

33 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Arthur Smith was Falcon's coach in '21 and '22 ? 

Yeah, I did forget which year it was, but all that means is that you can add Mike Davis to the list of Smith's bellcow candidates prior to Bijan.

Robinson is the new Henry, but with receiving skills and a better offensive line.

[GobbleDog 824]

3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

a better offensive line.

I'll concede that point... Falcons have very good o-line.

[jrokh 572]

Have to ride with Axe on this one. Bijan is easily a top 5 pick…

[weepaws 2,516]

This a non ppr? 

[Vikings4ever 496]

3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

This a non ppr? 

Yes, with a 2 RB/3 WR/1 TE starting lineup.

[AxeElf 787]

I mean if we want to talk about Arthur Smith's history with Atlanta, he made Cordarrelle Freaking Patterson a top 10 RB in 2021.

Bijan Robinson?

Fuhgeddaboudit...

[GobbleDog 824]

All we're really doing is arguing about how much discount is appropriate for the rookie. RB 12ish feels about to right... hence, I won't get him.

It's like Breece Hall - might be really great, but RB 11 ain't enough discount for me to take the ACL risk. But it's apparently enough for some drafters.

[weepaws 2,516]

3 hours ago, Vikings4ever said:

Yes, with a 2 RB/3 WR/1 TE starting lineup.

Thank you.  

[weepaws 2,516]

I like it, good job to everyone, I like seeing everyone different styles.  Whitewonder not taking a Wr until round 7 very interesting.  

Hey to you all play for money?  

Good luck everyone.  

[shovelheadt 62]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

I like it, good job to everyone, I like seeing everyone different styles.  Whitewonder not taking a Wr until round 7 very interesting.  

Hey to you all play for money?  

Good luck everyone.  

No money…just for bragging rights and planning. 

[weepaws 2,516]

43 minutes ago, shovelheadt said:

No money…just for bragging rights and planning. 

Cool , thanks.  

[WhiteWonder 2,235]

On 6/27/2023 at 10:26 PM, weepaws said:

I like it, good job to everyone, I like seeing everyone different styles.  Whitewonder not taking a Wr until round 7 very interesting.  

Hey to you all play for money?  

Good luck everyone.  

 

The annual June Mock is mainly for fftoday.com as an instrument/article. 

Fumbleweed takes the teams and runs a "no hassle" (best ball) league for bragging rights among the drafters. 

Being that non-ppr is no longer "standard" scoring, and being that all the mock drafters are well seasoned FF veterans who do this mock together each year, it usually makes for some interesting selections and unique strategies. 

Put it this way... it's completely different than feeling like you dominated every typical ESPN or Yahoo mock. 

 

Thanks for the well wishes and input at the other forum 

[WhiteWonder 2,235]

On 6/27/2023 at 3:07 PM, Ray_T said:

well, you are not gonna bench the 8th overall pick to play a Rb Drafted in the 5th round the year prior.... even if he did perform well.   

When they picked him at #8 overall its like turning to Allgeir and saying.... 'Take a seat son'

I could see this being a committee for the first couple games until Robinson gets his feet under him, but you dont draft a guy that early to have him warm the bench.  if hes healthy he will play until he proves he shouldnt be on the field.

Allgeier may be a good candidate for a trade if another team likes him.   But more likely he will get 20-40% of the snaps with Bijan getting most of the work.

Granted you maybe want a better situation if you own Bijan, but if hes lighting it up he will force the team to use him more.   That is what people are betting on.   

I think he starts with 50% of the work and it goes up steadily until it is no longer a committee.    I'm guessing it takes 3 weeks to get to that point.   but obviously some think it happens day 1.   but I had this guy pegged as a first round pick in most formats.   So far I have seen nothing that would make me believe this is an incorrect assessment.

 

Bijan won't be on any of my redraft teams, I suspect. Clearly the #8 overall pick is not getting benched (no one is saying that), but I also don't think Allgier is going away. Unless Atlanta starts winning early on, there would be little reason not to manage Bijan's workload to some degree. using that kind of draft capital on the RB position means he is going to be key 2-3 years from now when Atlanta hopes it has built up the rest of the team enough to be contenders. 

I wouldn't mind being wrong at all, I just don't see him being a top 5 pick, and in a redraft he doesn't happen to be in my top 12. 

Look how far Kenneth Walker is falling because Seattle drafted Charbonnet. So on a better team, the simple idea of another back in the rotation drops Walker almost a full round in ADP, but on a worse team with another back in the rotation.... who we have already seen play well at the NFL level.... and Bijan is an early first rounder?

[weepaws 2,516]

16 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Bijan won't be on any of my redraft teams, I suspect. Clearly the #8 overall pick is not getting benched (no one is saying that), but I also don't think Allgier is going away. Unless Atlanta starts winning early on, there would be little reason not to manage Bijan's workload to some degree. using that kind of draft capital on the RB position means he is going to be key 2-3 years from now when Atlanta hopes it has built up the rest of the team enough to be contenders. 

I wouldn't mind being wrong at all, I just don't see him being a top 5 pick, and in a redraft he doesn't happen to be in my top 12. 

Look how far Kenneth Walker is falling because Seattle drafted Charbonnet. So on a better team, the simple idea of another back in the rotation drops Walker almost a full round in ADP, but on a worse team with another back in the rotation.... who we have already seen play well at the NFL level.... and Bijan is an early first rounder?

Based solely on the rb slot, where do you have him ranked, no feet to the fire question.  

[WhiteWonder 2,235]

2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Based solely on the rb slot, where do you have him ranked, no feet to the fire question.  

RB alone I have him in the 8-10 range.  Which doesn't change much taking all positions into consideration in a non PPR. 

 

all of my redraft leagues are PPR or .5 PPR in which case I probably have him 13/14 at the moment. 

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

Clearly the #8 overall pick is not getting benched (no one is saying that), but I also don't think Allgier is going away.

Look how far Kenneth Walker is falling because Seattle drafted Charbonnet. So on a better team, the simple idea of another back in the rotation drops Walker almost a full round in ADP, but on a worse team with another back in the rotation.... who we have already seen play well at the NFL level.... and Bijan is an early first rounder?

OMG, you can't be serious with that comparison.  That's like comparing apples to porcupines.

First of all, the two teams are vastly different in their approach to running the ball.  Pete Carroll famously utilizes a RBBC approach.  In the 2023 draft, 15 teams neglected to draft a RB.  16 teams drafted one RB.  The Seahawks drafted 2 RBs, including Charbonnet in the 2nd round--when they already had a 2nd round RB in Walker.  This says a lot about how Carroll intends to manage his RB corps.  Arthur Smith comes from a tradition of running his bellcow RB (Derrick Henry) into the ground, and with only a 5th round RB previously tagged to be the lead RB, Smith spent the #8 overall pick in the draft (in an age when nobody is drafting RBs highly any more) on a bellcow-type RB.

So, you have a 2nd round incumbent with another 2nd round pick added for a coach that traditionally favors a committee approach; versus a 5th round incumbent with the 8th overall pick added for a coach that traditionally employs a bellcow RB.  And you can't understand why people would be more skeptical of Walker than Bijan?

Let's say their talent level and competition from other backs is equal (and it clearly isn't).  There is still the team offensive philosophy to consider.

Atlanta's offensive line was ranked 5th in the NFL last season, and projected 7th for the upcoming season.  Seattle's offensive line was ranked 27th in the NFL last season, and projected to be 30th for the upcoming season.  Consequently, the Falcons ran the ball 559 times last season (most in the NFL) for 2,718 yards (3rd in the NFL).  The Seahawks only ran the ball 425 times (22nd in the NFL) for 2,042 yards (18th in the NFL), so the pie that the 2 RBs will be splitting is 135 carries and 670 yards less in the case of Seahawks' RBs.

So Walker is likely to get a smaller share of a smaller pie, while Bijan is likely to get the lion's share of one of the biggest pies in the NFL.

Make sense now?

(Ironically, Bijan and Walker are my RB1 and RB2 in the first league I drafted this season.)

[weepaws 2,516]

2 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

Bijan won't be on any of my redraft teams, I suspect. Clearly the #8 overall pick is not getting benched (no one is saying that), but I also don't think Allgier is going away. Unless Atlanta starts winning early on, there would be little reason not to manage Bijan's workload to some degree. using that kind of draft capital on the RB position means he is going to be key 2-3 years from now when Atlanta hopes it has built up the rest of the team enough to be contenders. 

I wouldn't mind being wrong at all, I just don't see him being a top 5 pick, and in a redraft he doesn't happen to be in my top 12. 

Look how far Kenneth Walker is falling because Seattle drafted Charbonnet. So on a better team, the simple idea of another back in the rotation drops Walker almost a full round in ADP, but on a worse team with another back in the rotation.... who we have already seen play well at the NFL level.... and Bijan is an early first rounder?

Good points.  Charbonnet presents a real threat to Walker, I think he might even be better, so counting on Walker as a rb2 might be foolîsh. 

I think early into the season Robinson and Allgeir could have almost a even split in  theirs work load.  

[AxeElf 787]

6 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Good points.

White Wonder, just in case you still weren't convinced, you now have the incontrovertible evidence of weepaws' endorsement to guarantee the flimsiness of your argument.

[Ray_T 604]

2 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

Bijan won't be on any of my redraft teams, I suspect. Clearly the #8 overall pick is not getting benched (no one is saying that), but I also don't think Allgier is going away. Unless Atlanta starts winning early on, there would be little reason not to manage Bijan's workload to some degree. using that kind of draft capital on the RB position means he is going to be key 2-3 years from now when Atlanta hopes it has built up the rest of the team enough to be contenders. 

I wouldn't mind being wrong at all, I just don't see him being a top 5 pick, and in a redraft he doesn't happen to be in my top 12. 

Look how far Kenneth Walker is falling because Seattle drafted Charbonnet. So on a better team, the simple idea of another back in the rotation drops Walker almost a full round in ADP, but on a worse team with another back in the rotation.... who we have already seen play well at the NFL level.... and Bijan is an early first rounder?

you bring up some good points.

he is not playing on a team I classify as good.   for that reason alone, he may be a bit overvalued.    I do a lot of keeper/dynasty so sometimes I get a bit over excited about the rookies who look like they will have some staying power.

that said, this was also one of the most run heavy offenses in the NFL (and for good reason)

Allgier put up solid numbers last year.   I fully agree.   but I also look at the line (ranked #5 by PFF last season, current rank #7 due to them starting a rookie at guard this year)

then I ask, did he put up those numbers because he is good or because the line opened up a lot of holes for him?    I do remember watching a game where Algier had a good game but a couple of those runs the hole was large enough to drive a truck through without hitting anyone.   I dont exactly give the RB credit for those runs because you and I could hit that hole if we were carrying the ball.   all he had to do was find the hole and run through it.

that said, the sample size I'm dealing with is a small one but one that influences how I see him as a player.   I dont think he is a 1000 yard runner in a different offense.

to that end a superior talent running should at least put up the same numbers that Algier even in a situation where Algier gets 30% of the carries(which he may or may not get).   Also, with another year of experience I have to think Riddler will be better than last year.   Even if it just means he converts on third down a few more times it should translate to more yards and TD from the RB position as a whole.  

so I think he puts up some good numbers.    does he put up #8 overall good numbers?   after thinking about this I do have to say......probably not.   but I do think he is a RB1.

is that fair?

[WhiteWonder 2,235]

9 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

 

so I think he puts up some good numbers.    does he put up #8 overall good numbers?   after thinking about this I do have to say......probably not.   but I do think he is a RB1.

is that fair?

 

I definitely have him as an RB1, I just think it's funny how quick people are to declare him a top 5 fantasy pick because of his NFL draft capital.  My top 12, in PPR, includes at least 3 WR's and a TE... so saying I have him in the 13-15 range is not meant to be any kind of slight and still has him as an RB1 in 12 team leagues. 

[Ray_T 604]

5 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

 

I definitely have him as an RB1, I just think it's funny how quick people are to declare him a top 5 fantasy pick because of his NFL draft capital.  My top 12, in PPR, includes at least 3 WR's and a TE... so saying I have him in the 13-15 range is not meant to be any kind of slight and still has him as an RB1 in 12 team leagues. 

agreed.  I think top 5 represents his maximum upside, and you should not just draft based on that.   its not an impossible outcome but for him to achieve this Riddler likely needs to become a top 12 fantasy QB (or at the very least.... improve substantially)  and the defense needs to improve.    As I am not sold on Riddler yet, I have to scale back on where I would draft this kid even though I love the idea of him running behind that O line.

 

[AxeElf 787]

Holy malapropisms, Batman!

It's not the Riddler, it's Desmond Ridder.

And anyway, whether you like Bijan as the #1 RB this season, or if you're a little dumber than that, it really doesn't matter, because the point of a mock draft is to get an idea of where the various players will be drafted, and it's just a fact that in the vast majority of drafts this season, Bijan will be a top 5 pick.

So in that respect, this mock failed to provide a realistic view of Bijan's expected draft position.

[jrokh 572]

36 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I think top 5 represents his maximum upside,

Top 5 represents every potential top 5 back's maximum upside...

[Ray_T 604]

Just now, jrokh said:

Top 5 represents every potential top 5 back's maximum upside...

I suppose.  though I think hes likely not top 5 until next year (or possibly the year after) 

Realistically his chances of finishing top 5 are probably between 5 and 10%.        15% tops.    which likely means he probably should be the 8th to the 12th RB off the board.

that said, sometimes you see a player, they pass your eye test and you know what you know.   in these situations you gotta assume you are right and everyone else is wrong.  Whenever I've ignored my instincts on a player like this I've regretted it if I didnt draft accordingly.

I will try to take a look at more tape on Bijan to make sure.   I do think hes gonna be very good eventually.   Possibly even the best RB in pro football within a couple years.   but I do have questions about the QB position and the defense that make me question whether the team has enough to make him a top 5 RB this year.      I dont think hes that far from being there,  and if that rookie starting at guard turns out to be a player, this could be a very formidable running offense.

[weepaws 2,516]

4 hours ago, AxeElf said:

White Wonder, just in case you still weren't convinced, you now have the incontrovertible evidence of weepaws' endorsement to guarantee the flimsiness of your argument.

Or you have this person against you.  Based on some of his personal rankings of ff players in past, I would say your on to something.  

[weepaws 2,516]

I wouldn’t draft Robinson top five , or even have him top five on my rb list.