Breece Hall

[Tivoli 1]

If the Jets sign Dalvin Cook will it cut Breece Halls’ FF production in half?

[weepaws 3,152]

If Hall can’t return for the start of the season, and it’s starting to sound like that is going to be the case, the games he misses will cut is ff production.  

So if Hall isn’t able to play, and the Jets pick up D Cook I would say absolutely. 

 

[GobbleDog 981]

Cook signing or not, I ain't banking on Hall's acl.

[seafoam1 2,799]

On 7/13/2023 at 7:43 PM, GobbleDog said:

Cook signing or not, I ain't banking on Hall's acl.

Why not? Was there some complication with his surgery or are you saying it's just for this year? 

[Ray_T 740]

4 hours ago, seafoam1 said:

Why not? Was there some complication with his surgery or are you saying it's just for this year? 

if hes not able to start the season, the odds of him having a good season go down significantly.   if  this happens it means he has missed camp.  he wont have time to get aligned with his QB and his O line  and it will take time for him to get into game shape.

at this point I'd say the odds of him performing at his ADP are not nearly as good. 

not to mention most players coming back the first year off an ACL surgery seem to have subpar seasons.

to me, this all adds up to too much risk and all the signs are there.

certainly a good season isnt impossible as each person heals differently from surgery but given hes now looking like he may miss the start of the season I'd now say it is highly unlikely that he performs this season.

[GobbleDog 981]

5 hours ago, seafoam1 said:

Why not? Was there some complication with his surgery or are you saying it's just for this year? 

How many RBs off ACL surgery live up to, or exceed, their adp?

Have no idea, but total guess.... 30% or so, maybe less. Hall is currently RB 10. That's pricey. 

[weepaws 3,152]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

if hes not able to start the season, the odds of him having a good season go down significantly.   if  this happens it means he has missed camp.  he wont have time to get aligned with his QB and his O line  and it will take time for him to get into game shape.

at this point I'd say the odds of him performing at his ADP are not nearly as good. 

not to mention most players coming back the first year off an ACL surgery seem to have subpar seasons.

to me, this all adds up to too much risk and all the signs are there.

certainly a good season isnt impossible as each person heals differently from surgery but given hes now looking like he may miss the start of the season I'd now say it is highly unlikely that he performs this season.

Yea it’s pretty simple. 

[Ray_T 740]

4 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

How many RBs off ACL surgery live up to, or exceed, their adp?

Have no idea, but total guess.... 30% or so, maybe less. Hall is currently RB 10. That's pricey. 

less than 30% for sure.

more like 10 tops.   the only guy I can actually think of who did was ADP.    super talented guy, and a bit of a freak in terms of how he came back from the injury so quick and still performed as well as he did before the injury.

I am sure that there are others but hes the only guy I can think of who has.    And most RB who have a career longer than 8 years have an ACL surgery so the sample size is pretty good.

 

[GobbleDog 981]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

less than 30% for sure.

more like 10 tops. 

You'd think his adp would show a substantial discount for this... maybe RB 20ish. Nope #10.That's rich, given the 2nd/3rd rounders NOT off an acl.

If Hall drafters hit the lotto - hats off. Hope they know the risk going in.

[polecatt 474]

If you have Breece Hall, it's because you want him to be a week in week out starter on your team. If not, then you're loaded at RB and his ACL isn't gonna be a huge issue to you any way.

If he can play all or most of the season, he has a chance to be a top 5 RB and should be no worse than a top 10. Maybe his upside will be a bit limited but his floor should still be pretty high. If Rodgers fits in, then there's a lot a of potential even with just a modest output.

Of course the likelihood he is limited is high, it's a high risk/high reward scenario

[Ray_T 740]

2 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

You'd think his adp would show a substantial discount for this... maybe RB 20ish. Nope #10.That's rich, given the 2nd/3rd rounders NOT off an acl.

If Hall drafters hit the lotto - hats off. Hope they know the risk going in.

ever since Adrian Peterson came back from an ACL in less than a year and was a stud upon return everyone has underestimated how an ACL tear will affect production and often will site this example and say that modern medicine is better.

I agree it is better but not as much as everyone thinks.   The process of healing still takes significant time and I truly think Peterson was the exception and not the rule.

though how a player performs returning from ACL surgery largely depends on a number of things.

1) the line.   if the line opens up a giant hole, it likely does not matter if you have an ACL tear or not.  You run through the hole and get a bunch of yards.

2) playcalling.   this goes hand in hand with #1.   if its the right ACL thats injured but most of your runs are to the left side of the line, its your good (left)leg that is doing the plant for the cut.  so if the line does its job on that side of the field, the ACL shouldn't affect that play.     also draw plays tend to put less pressure on the knee joint because of the way the play is designed.

so you can scheme for this to some degree but the defense knows what you are doing so its not necessarily as easy as you would think.

3) the obvious one.... healing ability and working hard in rehab/phisio.

so a good line will indeed help the situation and a good coach who knows how to scheme things to minimize the effect of that ACL tear can go a long ways. 

Peterson also had Elite vision so he could see the hole forming before it even opened up.  this was one part of his game that gave him an advantage to allow him to overcome some of this short term disability associated with the injury.   this vision allowed him to play past the age of 30 as well. 

 

[weepaws 3,152]

There does seem to be a lot of interest in D Cook from the Jets, that’s not a good sign for Hall.  His ADP is ridiculously to high with so much uncertainty about his return.  

[Ray_T 740]

15 minutes ago, weepaws said:

There does seem to be a lot of interest in D Cook from the Jets, that’s not a good sign for Hall.  His ADP is ridiculously to high with so much uncertainty about his return.  

Well, if Cook is signed, I think that tells you all you need to know about Hall's recovery from this injury.

at worst this would be a committee situation if they sign Cook.

[weepaws 3,152]

If they sign D Cook, you can toss out a lot of production from any of them, and M Carter is going to be involved.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

On 7/13/2023 at 2:45 PM, Tivoli said:

If the Jets sign Dalvin Cook will it cut Breece Halls’ FF production in half?

The question isn't how will the addition of Cook hurt Hall's production.  It's, as a handcuff, what round do you take Hall in?

[seafoam1 2,799]

15 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Well, if Cook is signed, I think that tells you all you need to know about Hall's recovery from this injury.

at worst this would be a committee situation if they sign Cook.

I think Cook wants multiple years. Why would the Jets do that? He's gonna cost too. Breece Hall has a high floor. He'll be fine. If they are worried about his return time, they would be better off signing Fournette or Hunt and ease Hall back into the rotation. 

[weepaws 3,152]

Rodgers is why they would pick up D Cook, if indeed they do.  Jets are in win now mood unlike most dynasty ff teams.

Thanks. 

[Ray_T 740]

3 hours ago, seafoam1 said:

I think Cook wants multiple years. Why would the Jets do that? He's gonna cost too. Breece Hall has a high floor. He'll be fine. If they are worried about his return time, they would be better off signing Fournette or Hunt and ease Hall back into the rotation. 

true.   

but this may be about pleasing Aaron Rodgers.

that said, the best move is to sign a one year deal to one of the Free Agents on the market.

personally I'd pick Zeke.    he catches, he runs, and he blocks.   might be a good mentor for a young Breece Hall on a one year deal.

[seafoam1 2,799]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

true.   

but this may be about pleasing Aaron Rodgers.

that said, the best move is to sign a one year deal to one of the Free Agents on the market.

personally I'd pick Zeke.    he catches, he runs, and he blocks.   might be a good mentor for a young Breece Hall on a one year deal.

Good call. And...

you didn't need to say another word after "pleasing Aaron Rodgers". :sigh:

[Ray_T 740]

53 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

Good call. And...

you didn't need to say another word after "pleasing Aaron Rodgers". :sigh:

yeah, in the end, if he asks for something they will likely try to give it to him.

 

[seafoam1 2,799]

1 minute ago, Ray_T said:

yeah, in the end, if he asks for something they will likely try to give it to him.

 

Dude won a total of 1 conference championships. 

That said, where do you rank him for fantasy?

[Ray_T 740]

1 minute ago, seafoam1 said:

Dude won a total of 1 conference championships. 

That said, where do you rank him for fantasy?

Rodgers?   tough to say.   I have not done a whole lot of research on QB's.  but plan to do some soon.

my gut tells me he will produce better in New York than he did last season in Green Bay just simply because they have more high end talent at WR.

the question I have is by how much?

I probably draft him as a low end QB1.  but hes treading very close to that QB1/QB2 border.    he could have another big bounceback year.   its certainly possible.... but thats probably where I'd draft him.

[seafoam1 2,799]

4 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Rodgers?   tough to say.   I have not done a whole lot of research on QB's.  but plan to do some soon.

my gut tells me he will produce better in New York than he did last season in Green Bay just simply because they have more high end talent at WR.

the question I have is by how much?

I probably draft him as a low end QB1.  but hes treading very close to that QB1/QB2 border.    he could have another big bounceback year.   its certainly possible.... but thats probably where I'd draft him.

Yeah, as much as I hate him, he's focking good. I think he goes to New York and lights it up. I may take a chance on him.

[weepaws 3,152]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

true.   

but this may be about pleasing Aaron Rodgers.

that said, the best move is to sign a one year deal to one of the Free Agents on the market.

personally I'd pick Zeke.    he catches, he runs, and he blocks.   might be a good mentor for a young Breece Hall on a one year deal.

Would rather have Hunt or D Cook.  

[GobbleDog 981]

27 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I probably draft him as a low end QB1.  but hes treading very close to that QB1/QB2 border.    he could have another big bounceback year.  

Aaron Rodgers was banged up last year (thumb and something else) so excuse some poor play. Current ADP is QB 17 which feels low.

Look at the five immediately above him... Goff, Smith, Richardson, Jones, Cousins... probably beat them out. So 11th finish or so... that feels about right. Definitely great value.

[Ray_T 740]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Current ADP is QB 17 which feels low.

That feels low to me as well.

I'm in a one league that starts 2 QB  and this feels like he could be a nice buy.  especially if what you say is right at QB17. 

keep in mind he is in New York.  if he looks great in pre season it will be tough to contain the hype on him.

he probably should be between QB 8 and QB 15 but I say this tongue in cheek as I have yet to run my projections.   QB 11 or 12 feels close to right for me but you wont find too many QB's with that type of ADP that has the potential upside he has.

 

[Ray_T 740]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Would rather have Hunt or D Cook.  

honestly there are so many factors at play that its really tough to predict.

but you bring a guy like Rodgers and his huge cap hit, I have to think money plays into this decision in some way.   I suspect Cook is asking too much cash for them to bite.  he also likely wants term.   tough to say what Hunt wants, but hes likely a good candidate as well.    Though some GM's may not like him due to his incident that led to his departure from KC in the first place.

thus the suggestion of Zeke.   In terms of what he can deliver, Hunt may be the better player today.   but if you also want to move back towards Hall next season, Zeke is the one most likely to sign a one year deal.   Hunt would likely be gunning for the permanent starting job which could be undesireable if Breece Hall is your guy.

[weepaws 3,152]

Rodgers ADP will start to lower as news starts being reported of how good the Jets look with him at Qb.  I have not looked at Qb ADP , but I can’t see Rodgers ADP remain at 17.  

 

[weepaws 3,152]

4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

honestly there are so many factors at play that its really tough to predict.

but you bring a guy like Rodgers and his huge cap hit, I have to think money plays into this decision in some way.   I suspect Cook is asking too much cash for them to bite.  he also likely wants term.   tough to say what Hunt wants, but hes likely a good candidate as well.    Though some GM's may not like him due to his incident that led to his departure from KC in the first place.

thus the suggestion of Zeke.   In terms of what he can deliver, Hunt may be the better player today.   but if you also want to move back towards Hall next season, Zeke is the one most likely to sign a one year deal.   Hunt would likely be gunning for the permanent starting job which could be undesireable if Breece Hall is your guy.

I think the Zeke looked done last season , he was able to lean forward for 12 rushing tds.  Plus I don’t know what the Zeke might asking for.  But I haven’t heard any news about any team having interest in him.  

[JagFan 149]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Rodgers ADP will start to lower as news starts being reported of how good the Jets look with him at Qb.  I have not looked at Qb ADP , but I can’t see Rodgers ADP remain at 17.  

 

17 seems about right to me, but you’re probably spot on here.  There didn’t seem to be a lot of chemistry last year with him and his receivers until Watson came alive vs Dal.  That speaks to his ability as a leader.  I’m not saying he’s not a good leader, but he does seem selfish.  He wasn’t happy in GB last year, and it showed.  He simply didn’t do his job last year, but he sure did cash the paychecks.  No thank you.

[Ray_T 740]

6 hours ago, JagFan said:

17 seems about right to me, but you’re probably spot on here.  There didn’t seem to be a lot of chemistry last year with him and his receivers until Watson came alive vs Dal.  That speaks to his ability as a leader.  I’m not saying he’s not a good leader, but he does seem selfish.  He wasn’t happy in GB last year, and it showed.  He simply didn’t do his job last year, but he sure did cash the paychecks.  No thank you.

for me, the issue is that he was playing with a bunch of #2/3 WR last year.  he did not have a true #1.

Now he does.

so I do think he does better than last year (assuming good health) the real puzzle is figuring out how much better he will actually be.

[weepaws 3,152]

It’s a good chance he might end up on my teams based on his current adp.  But I think he’s adp based on the Qb slot will reach 12-14 before long.  

[Ray_T 740]

25 minutes ago, weepaws said:

It’s a good chance he might end up on my teams based on his current adp.  But I think he’s adp based on the Qb slot will reach 12-14 before long.  

Well, thats just probably where he should have been in the first place.

I'd argue hes in a far better situation with better talent on offense than what he was dealing with in Green Bay.   The biggest challenge would be for him to get onto the same page as everyone in the offense.

for that reason I think he does better in the second half of the season than he does in the first half.

[weepaws 3,152]

Depends on how the Jets are doing, if the Jets come out stinking early on, Rodgers might lose interest. I’m looking at has s streamer.  But I Hope is ADP lowers and he’s drafted in both of my 14 team leagues. 

[FrancieFootball 96]

On 7/16/2023 at 4:23 PM, Ray_T said:

true.   

but this may be about pleasing Aaron Rodgers.

that said, the best move is to sign a one year deal to one of the Free Agents on the market.

personally I'd pick Zeke.    he catches, he runs, and he blocks.   might be a good mentor for a young Breece Hall on a one year deal.

I like this idea.

[seafoam1 2,799]

15 hours ago, Ray_T said:

for me, the issue is that he was playing with a bunch of #2/3 WR last year.  he did not have a true #1.

Now he does.

so I do think he does better than last year (assuming good health) the real puzzle is figuring out how much better he will actually be.

Until the guy runs a wrong route and Rodgers doesn't throw the ball his way for like 6 games. 

Rodgers is a weird dude.

Also, Lazard and Cobb need to be fed as he asked them to go to New York. He won't ignore them is my guess.

[Ray_T 740]

5 hours ago, seafoam1 said:

Until the guy runs a wrong route and Rodgers doesn't throw the ball his way for like 6 games. 

Rodgers is a weird dude.

Also, Lazard and Cobb need to be fed as he asked them to go to New York. He won't ignore them is my guess.

Cobb never got that much love in Green Bay.  hes there for comfort more than anything.

Lazard will likely be the #2.

and Rodgers is capable of supporting more than one relevant fantasy WR.   this doesnt worry me.

[weepaws 3,152]

89 targets over the two seasons for Cobb, and it was Rodgers that wanted him back on the Packers.  

[Ray_T 740]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

89 targets over the two seasons for Cobb, and it was Rodgers that wanted him back on the Packers.  

so like WR3?   likely fantasy irrelevant unless there is an injury.

[League Champion 1,896]

I love Breece Hall at his current ADP but I doubt I'll be drafting any other Jet.