Keeper help Pacheco, White or Hopkins?

[sco 0]

I'm in a PPR Keeper league with 12 teams and a roster that plays 1QB/2 WRs / 2 RBs / 1 TE / 1 Flex/ 1K/ 1 Def with at 15 round draft. I need to pick a keeper.  Would you choose:

Isiah Pacheco (13th round pick give-up),

Rachaad White (9th round pick give-up), or

DeAndre Hopkins (7th round pick give-up)?

[weepaws 3,152]

White. 

[makindollaz 51]

Another vote for White

[polecatt 474]

I would keep Hopkins. He's good value there, and should be a decent flex option for the season. If he's healthy of course, he has WR1 upside.

The two RBs, I know they seem like good value, but they're not players to keep. Pacheco is injured and White is on the Bucs who are gonna be terrible.

Take Hopkins for what he is, good WR depth and possibly more.

[Ray_T 740]

7 hours ago, sco said:

I'm in a PPR Keeper league with 12 teams and a roster that plays 1QB/2 WRs / 2 RBs / 1 TE / 1 Flex/ 1K/ 1 Def with at 15 round draft. I need to pick a keeper.  Would you choose:

Isiah Pacheco (13th round pick give-up),

Rachaad White (9th round pick give-up), or

DeAndre Hopkins (7th round pick give-up)?

well, I think if Hopkins returns to form as I think he will, he is the guy you want at the price of a 7th rounder.

but a close #2 for me is Pacheco.  he never got significant playing time until week 10 and he still got 900+ total yards.  if you take what he did week 10 on, and pro rate over 17 games this guy looks great.  potential RB1 though this is a small sample size.  hes a very close 2nd place for me.

White doesnt thrill me.  he averaged less than 4 yards per carry and couldnt unseat a gimpy Leonard Fournette playing with a lis franc injury last year.   That tells me all I need to know about him.   once again this guy also has a small sample size so It is possible I could be wrong, but the bottom line is Tampa looks like a dumpster fire and losing teams tend to have crappy RB stats most of the time.

hes not a guy I would take.

I fully admit I could be wrong here, but there are enough warning sign that make me feel his maximum upside is as a volume based RB2.   and thats if everything goes right for the guy.  I honestly think hes at that RB2/RB3 border and he lacks the upside of the other two players on your list.

[weepaws 3,152]

I agree that Hopkins is going to be good depth, I don’t think Hopkins needs to return to form, I just don’t think he landed on the right team.

Hopkins ADP is 5th rd, so if you keep him for a 7 rd pick l you do gain a two rd value, White ADP is 6 rd, you would gain a three rd value for him.  

Bucs offense won’t be very good at times, I agree, but I think White will be the top scorer in ff on the team that doesn’t play Qb.  

White is a three down rb, who can play in the passing game, unless White suffers injuries he isn’t going to miss much playing time, his back is C Edmonds , bonus for White owners imo.  

Pacheco isn’t even someone I’m interested in at all, I think he’ll be up and down the entire season with injury issues, I can’t predict injuries so that’s just my personal feeling.  

I think R White is the one you want.  

 

[IGotWorms 4,057]

18 hours ago, polecatt said:

I would keep Hopkins. He's good value there, and should be a decent flex option for the season. If he's healthy of course, he has WR1 upside.

The two RBs, I know they seem like good value, but they're not players to keep. Pacheco is injured and White is on the Bucs who are gonna be terrible.

Take Hopkins for what he is, good WR depth and possibly more.

I agree with this. Too many questions on White and Pacheco and DHop has a considerable floor, even on the titans 

[GobbleDog 981]

Interesting question because you could make a case for, and against, all of them.

I'd go White for the ppr. Tampa is gonna stink, but White (former 3rd rd) could finish with 60+ receptions, especially with Fournette gone. And White might get goal line work (what little there is) or at least share it. 

The Chiefs invested a 7th rd pick on Pechecho, so he's disposable. Despite being on a  high-scoring team, Rb's have little to do with how KC plays football. That ain't gonna change over the next few years.

Have no idea what to expect from Hopkins on a run-first team led by talent-less Tannehill.  But he's old and apparently costs you the most draft capital.

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

A lot of people think Tampa's going to stink, like 4 or 5 wins, but even with Jameis Winston who isn't even an NFL QB, they won 7 games with this team.  Mayfield is a solid backup in the NFL, and after he gets benched during the bye week (week 5), and Trask takes over, they'll be a better team.  I'm thinking the Bucs win about 8 or 9 games this year.  White has no competition in the backfield for touches (well, he does, but not really... Chase Edmonds will certainly get used to spell White, but he's not taking touches away).  Godwin and Evans are still on the team and the OLine is at least healthy right now and will be better than last year.  I see White garnering around 18 total touches per game, probably more.

Tampa's new OC was the QB coach in Seattle last year and has been there with Wilson and Geno Smith, so I expect this offense to be better than last year with that bum Leftwich.  When you look at the offense that Seattle ran the last few years, they have no problem giving their starting RB 20+ carries a game.  Last year, Walker had 6 games with 20+ carries and 9 games with 17+ targets... note, he only started 11 games.  In 2021, Penny had 6 starts (got hurt on the 2nd play in one of them), in the other 5 starts, he had 17+ touches in 4 or them and over 20 carries in 2.  In Collins' first 3 starts, he had 17+ touches in each game and over 20 carries in one.  Carson had 10 games with 17+ targets in 2020.  If White stays healthy, I expect 18+ touches a game.

Here's my projection for White (on average)...

With Mayfield... 12 carries per game at 3.9 ypc, with 5 targets/4 receptions for 30 yards and 1 total TD's. (I'm expecting 4 games)... about 12 fpg

With Trask... 15 carries per game at 4.3 ypc, with 5 targets/3 receptions for 25 yards and 10 total TD's (I'm expecting 13 games).... about 14.5 fpg

So with Mayfield, I'd say he's mid-range RB3 and with Trask a high end RB2/low end RB1.

 

If that helps you on who you should keep, good.

[GobbleDog 981]

14 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

A lot of people think Tampa's going to stink, like 4 or 5 wins, but even with Jameis Winston who isn't even an NFL QB, they won 7 games with this team. 

I've wondered if I'm over-reacting and just following the narrative of Tampa being bad. But there's red flags - head coach with a terrible coaching record, player turnover, new assistant coaches, and of course Mayfield.

On the flip side, have ya looked at the NFC South lately? Oof.

[jrokh 608]

26 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm thinking the Bucs win about 8 or 9 games this year. 

Well, the Betting lines are all at 6.5 and at + money, so you should bet the house on the over. Provided you actually believe what your selling...

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

4 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I've wondered if I'm over-reacting and just following the narrative of Tampa being bad. But there's red flags - head coach with a terrible coaching record, player turnover, new assistant coaches, and of course Mayfield.

On the flip side, have ya looked at the NFC South lately? Oof.

Yeah, Bowles is a terrible HC, but I think (ok, I hope), he learned his lesson last year with Leftwich.  Their new OC was the QB coach in Seattle the last few years and worked with both Wilson and Smith.  If this coach and that system can make Geno Smith a high producing QB, then I think Trask at least has the same ability as him and should be at least a competent starter (Mayfield sucks azz, he won't start many, if any, games this year... unless Trask gets hurt).  A lot of what I saw, heard, and read has said Trask is having a better camp than Mayfield.  Mayfield is starting tonight, and I'm guessing they're going to give Trask the start next week.  Again, guessing, that the starter for game 3 will be the starter for Week 1.

That said, there's not a lot of player turnover.  They moved on from their LT (Donovan Smith), who was good, but not special.  They drafted Wirffs to be the future LT and now he's going to be.  Jensen is back at Center as are the rest of the guys who were hurt last year.  This won't be a top 3 OLine like 2020/2021, but it should be between 11-15, slightly better than average.  I think White is better than Fournette.  Godwin, Evans, and Russell are back and their TE's from last year were rookies and going into year 2.  There's almost no turnover of consequence on offense outside of QB.  I think the biggest change is a massive upgrade at Offensive Coordinator.

As for the defense, the only 3 key players they lost were Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Mike Edwards.  On defense, I expect pretty much every level to be at least, better than average, like the OLine, between 11-15.

Overall, that's why I see them being slightly better than average, a 9-8 team.  I think Mayfield is on borrowed time.

[weepaws 3,152]

I think  White has  rb2 potential.  

[IGotWorms 4,057]

6 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

A lot of people think Tampa's going to stink, like 4 or 5 wins, but even with Jameis Winston who isn't even an NFL QB, they won 7 games with this team.  Mayfield is a solid backup in the NFL, and after he gets benched during the bye week (week 5), and Trask takes over, they'll be a better team.  I'm thinking the Bucs win about 8 or 9 games this year.  White has no competition in the backfield for touches (well, he does, but not really... Chase Edmonds will certainly get used to spell White, but he's not taking touches away).  Godwin and Evans are still on the team and the OLine is at least healthy right now and will be better than last year.  I see White garnering around 18 total touches per game, probably more.

Tampa's new OC was the QB coach in Seattle last year and has been there with Wilson and Geno Smith, so I expect this offense to be better than last year with that bum Leftwich.  When you look at the offense that Seattle ran the last few years, they have no problem giving their starting RB 20+ carries a game.  Last year, Walker had 6 games with 20+ carries and 9 games with 17+ targets... note, he only started 11 games.  In 2021, Penny had 6 starts (got hurt on the 2nd play in one of them), in the other 5 starts, he had 17+ touches in 4 or them and over 20 carries in 2.  In Collins' first 3 starts, he had 17+ touches in each game and over 20 carries in one.  Carson had 10 games with 17+ targets in 2020.  If White stays healthy, I expect 18+ touches a game.

Here's my projection for White (on average)...

With Mayfield... 12 carries per game at 3.9 ypc, with 5 targets/4 receptions for 30 yards and 1 total TD's. (I'm expecting 4 games)... about 12 fpg

With Trask... 15 carries per game at 4.3 ypc, with 5 targets/3 receptions for 25 yards and 10 total TD's (I'm expecting 13 games).... about 14.5 fpg

So with Mayfield, I'd say he's mid-range RB3 and with Trask a high end RB2/low end RB1.

 

If that helps you on who you should keep, good.

You think trask is good?

[Ray_T 740]

6 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Tampa's new OC was the QB coach in Seattle last year and has been there with Wilson and Geno Smith, so I expect this offense to be better than last year with that bum Leftwich.  When you look at the offense that Seattle ran the last few years, they have no problem giving their starting RB 20+ carries a game.  Last year, Walker had 6 games with 20+ carries and 9 games with 17+ targets...

this is great information.    Thanks for this.   

[Ray_T 740]

6 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

You think trask is good?

well, hes a bit of an unknown commodity.   he was at the point where he should have become a starter, but Brady was sitting there.     You and I know  nobody is gonna bench Brady just Because a developmental QB may be ready to see the field.

so he sat.

I do think Mayfield is a quality backup or low end starter and If the team starts poorly or Trask hugely outperforms Mayfield in pre season, I could see Trask becoming the starter.

but we are looking at a downgrade from last year because I still think Brady was the best QB on the roster at that time.

but..... Tampa had a lot of injuries on the O line.

Fournette was plaing with a lis franc injury (amazing he didnt miss a lot of time) so there were deficiencies that really hindered the offense.

so weaker QB and hopefully a healthier line.  I still think the team wins less games than last year but not by as much as people think.   if the line is healthy, that will mitigate a lot of the drop in production due to Brady's departure

[League Champion 1,896]

On 8/9/2023 at 1:45 PM, sco said:

I'm in a PPR Keeper league with 12 teams and a roster that plays 1QB/2 WRs / 2 RBs / 1 TE / 1 Flex/ 1K/ 1 Def with at 15 round draft. I need to pick a keeper.  Would you choose:

Isiah Pacheco (13th round pick give-up),

Rachaad White (9th round pick give-up), or

DeAndre Hopkins (7th round pick give-up)?

Easily White 

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

21 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

You think trask is good?

No, I don't.  I think Tampa wasted that pick.  Never liked it from day 1.  The thing is, he's still an unknown and Tampa has a lot of good weapons at their disposal.  He did have 2 years under Brady to develop and there's a chance he could be a competent QB.  There's a 0% chance that Mayfield could be a competent QB.  The dude is awful.  He's not a starter in the NFL.

 

Everything being reported out of camp so far is that Trask and Mayfield are very close.  When you have a guy who was the #1 overall pick in the draft with 70 starts under his belt and he's neck and neck with a #64 draft pick with 9 career pass attempts in regular season game, you'd have to think that Trask's ceiling is substantially higher, no?

[weepaws 3,152]

Mayfield might not be good enough to be a starting Qb in the NFL, but he’s going to start the season the starting Qb for the Bucs.  

[IGotWorms 4,057]

50 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

No, I don't.  I think Tampa wasted that pick.  Never liked it from day 1.  The thing is, he's still an unknown and Tampa has a lot of good weapons at their disposal.  He did have 2 years under Brady to develop and there's a chance he could be a competent QB.  There's a 0% chance that Mayfield could be a competent QB.  The dude is awful.  He's not a starter in the NFL.

 

Everything being reported out of camp so far is that Trask and Mayfield are very close.  When you have a guy who was the #1 overall pick in the draft with 70 starts under his belt and he's neck and neck with a #64 draft pick with 9 career pass attempts in regular season game, you'd have to think that Trask's ceiling is substantially higher, no?

Just because baker isn’t great doesn’t mean trask is any good. Bottom line, most likely TB does not have anything better than a mediocre QB this year and that might even be optimistic 

[sco 0]

Thanks guys!  I went with White.

[weepaws 3,152]

Congrats, Good luck.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

On 8/12/2023 at 2:47 PM, IGotWorms said:

Just because baker isn’t great doesn’t mean trask is any good. Bottom line, most likely TB does not have anything better than a mediocre QB this year and that might even be optimistic 

Oh, I agree that even if Trask is better, it doesn't mean he'll be good.  A mediocre QB, by definition is mediocre, hence, average.  Average is 8 or 9 wins, which is what I said in my first post.

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

On 8/12/2023 at 2:12 PM, weepaws said:

Mayfield might not be good enough to be a starting Qb in the NFL, but he’s going to start the season the starting Qb for the Bucs.  

I think that's likely, but the fact that he sucks means he won't last long.  With the games Tampa opens with... Minny, Chicago, Philly, and New Orleans, I expect the Bucs to be 1-3 or 0-4.  If that's the case, they won't stick with Mayfield.

[Ray_T 740]

26 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think that's likely, but the fact that he sucks means he won't last long.  With the games Tampa opens with... Minny, Chicago, Philly, and New Orleans, I expect the Bucs to be 1-3 or 0-4.  If that's the case, they won't stick with Mayfield.

yeah an 0-4 start would make them shoo him out the door quickly.   though Chicago and New Orleans are not exactly powerhouses either.   they could beat one or possibly both.

more likley they get one win and one loss out of those two with Minny and Philly chewing them up (most likely)

either way Trask is still largely an unknown.  the scouting report on him suggested he could eventually be a decent starting QB but that first year could also be rough for him.

I do agree, he will likely get his shot at some point this season.   I question whether Mayfield has the ability to do enough to keep Trask off the field.