Those of you who've drafted already, what were the biggest surprises?

[Chickie 39]

The three top tier 1 QBs were gone by the time picked picked again with the 22nd pick, late 2nd round/12 teams.

[Ray_T 591]

50 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Agreed. Perfect example - I posted in the "drafting 1st" thread, my mocks indicate the hardest part about the 1 position is if you don't take a Rb at the 4/5 turn, the last of the decent starting Rbs (Dobbins, Pacheco, White, Conner, etc.) generally dries up as it snakes back to you in the 6th round. From mid/late positions, you can generally rely on one being there, but not from the 1st. So, in later mocks I felt compelled to take a Rb at the 4/5 turn, rather than Wrs I like. 

yeah at the #1 slot its a lot harder to do the zero RB strategy effectively.     I'd argue if you go zero WR the same would apply.

You really force yourself into a situation where you may have little to no choice in terms of picking and the choices may not be good.   I dont like drafting that way because then it feels like you may end up reaching on a player you dont really like a whole lot.    for me, that is a terrible place to be while drafting.

[GobbleDog 816]

15 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

yeah at the #1 slot its a lot harder to do the zero RB strategy effectively.     I'd argue if you go zero WR the same would apply.

You really force yourself into a situation where you may have little to no choice in terms of picking and the choices may not be good.   I dont like drafting that way because then it feels like you may end up reaching on a player you dont really like a whole lot.    for me, that is a terrible place to be while drafting.

Aside from that 4/5 turn issue, this has to be the hardest year ever from the #1 spot due to the Rb landscape. Years prior the 1 spot was coveted for that bell-cow mega point stud with few warts. The days of Peterson, Faulk, Holmes, Thomlinson, etc.

This year your options are injury prone McCaff or Ekeler - who I like, but 1st overall feels early.  Last year he was phenomenal with 18 Tds and 107 rec. Tds are always fluky and those receptions won't likely get repeated since Rams sacked their dink and dunk OC.  Ekeler is also 28.  So instead ya opt for the safety of Jefferson or whoever. But now ya gets the Rb crumbs in rd 2. 

I find out my position in a few days. If I get #1, I'm offering a straight up trade to anyone who'll swap. I'm sure I'll find a taker.

[Ray_T 591]

8 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Aside from that 4/5 turn issue, this has to be the hardest year ever from the #1 spot due to the Rb landscape. Years prior the 1 spot was coveted for that bell-cow mega point stud with few warts. The days of Peterson, Faulk, Holmes, Thomlinson, etc.

This year your options are injury prone McCaff or Ekeler - who I like, but 1st overall feels early.  Last year he was phenomenal with 18 Tds and 107 rec. Tds are always fluky and those receptions won't likely get repeated since Rams sacked their dink and dunk OC.  Ekeler is also 28.  So instead ya opt for the safety of Jefferson or whoever. But now ya gets the Rb crumbs in rd 2. 

I find out my position in a few days. If I get #1, I'm offering a straight up trade to anyone who'll swap. I'm sure I'll find a taker.

yeah, if you want to take a RB,  But dont like Ekeler or CMC at the #1 overall spot you are almost smarter to trade down if you are able (and if the rules allow it)

 

[idlewild 6]

On 8/19/2023 at 2:10 PM, GobbleDog said:

I like every player mentioned... but Najee Harris makes me nervous. I'd been mock drafting him late 3rd because he's supposedly the last potential 300+ touch back left.  But I'm having second thoughts. The metrics just aren't impressive.

Najee blew up his rookie year, but that was entirely due to an insane 381 touches, 74 of which were cheap dump offs from Rothlesburger's spent arm. But his running efficiency wasn't great. Boring metric rankings: True yac 53rd, Yd per touch 41st, Breakaway rate 28th, Yds created per touch 24th, etc. Last year, his touches dropped to 313 with almost identical metrics, and in some categories worse.

Najee does one thing great - evades first tackle, ranked 2nd and 4th respective years. Sounds impressive, but it's meaningless when he does virtually nothing with it after that.  On the flip side, Jaylen Warren should have a more prominent roll considering his rushing metrics were rather impressive. Beginning to wonder if the Steelers just don't go full rotation. Why keep giving nearly all the carries to a guy who does nothing with it? Throw in Pickett (worst starting qb in league IMO) and Najee's appeal starts looking much less appealing.

Food for thought

Pickett will finish top 10 QB, perhaps even top 5. 

[Ray_T 591]

On 8/23/2023 at 10:49 AM, GobbleDog said:

Agreed. Perfect example - I posted in the "drafting 1st" thread, my mocks indicate the hardest part about the 1 position is if you don't take a Rb at the 4/5 turn, the last of the decent starting Rbs (Dobbins, Pacheco, White, Conner, etc.) generally dries up as it snakes back to you in the 6th round. From mid/late positions, you can generally rely on one being there, but not from the 1st. So, in later mocks I felt compelled to take a Rb at the 4/5 turn, rather than Wrs I like. 

yeah, and that likely makes you more predictable at the draft table too because everyone in the room knows you need to take a RB

[GobbleDog 816]

7 hours ago, idlewild said:

Pickett will finish top 10 QB, perhaps even top 5. 

This should be in the Bold Predictions thread. Top 5 for Pickett definitely qualifies.

[Ray_T 591]

On 8/19/2023 at 12:10 PM, GobbleDog said:

Najee does one thing great - evades first tackle, ranked 2nd and 4th respective years. Sounds impressive, but it's meaningless when he does virtually nothing with it after that. 

meant to comment on this earlier.   the evading the first tackle is also meaningless when the line is basically a turnstile.   the O line has been terrible.

you can sometimes do things to cover up some of the flaws in a bad line but when the QB is bad (or is a rookie) its next to impossible.    It does look like the line will be better this year but it will still be below average.  -Average at best (and only on a good day).

This is the reason Najee isnt lighting it up.   teams are stacking the box and forcing them to beat them through the air.   

Pickett is showing signs of better play.  if he strings together a few good games, I think there will be more room out there for Naj to run the ball.    I fully admit, thats a big IF.   but if preseason is any indication, this Steelers team seems to be headed in the right direction at least.

[GobbleDog 816]

28 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

meant to comment on this earlier.   the evading the first tackle is also meaningless when the line is basically a turnstile.   the O line has been terrible.

Definitely bad o-line last year. Which is why the Steeler's drafted a linemen in rd 1and a blocking Te rd 3. Then signed a free agent.  So in theory they should be better, but ya never know with o-lines.

[Ray_T 591]

2 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Definitely bad o-line last year. Which is why the Steeler's drafted a linemen in rd 1and a blocking Te rd 3. Then signed a free agent.  So in theory they should be better, but ya never know with o-lines.

I dont know that they can get much worse than they were last year.

but I agree, half that line is effectively rebuilt.    It will probably affect Picketts performance too.

I actually wanted them to sit picket for a few more games at the start of the year because of the bad line.    putting a rookie QB behind a bad line is a good way of ruining your rookie prospect.

[Jaydee 1]

Unexpected and pleased I got Hill and St Brown for my first two picks in the seventh spot. 12 team 1/2 ppr. Jumped on Gibbs for 3rd then Cooper and Fields.

[weepaws 2,460]

1 hour ago, Jaydee said:

Unexpected and pleased I got Hill and St Brown for my first two picks in the seventh spot. 12 team 1/2 ppr. Jumped on Gibbs for 3rd then Cooper and Fields.

2nd and 3rd Rbs? What draft spot did you have? 

[fricker66 91]

I was surprised at the following players falling far in my draft:

DJ Moore

Brian Robinson Jr.

Alvin Kamara

Jaxson Smith-Njigba 

Kenneth Walker

[Ray_T 591]

2 hours ago, fricker66 said:

I was surprised at the following players falling far in my draft:

DJ Moore

Brian Robinson Jr.

Alvin Kamara

Jaxson Smith-Njigba 

Kenneth Walker

I'm not so surprised about most but I am surprised about Walker.   hes way low compared to where he should be going.

DJ moore scares a lot of people.   his new team was a fantasy wasteland last year.   tough to buy in.   but he performed with crappy QB elsewhere.  I think he will likely be fine.

Robinson----- on a bad team.  this likely hinders his draft stock but I like him at his ADP.

Kamara- value is down due to suspension but he likely is a good buy at his ADP

Smith Njigba is a top talent but hes #3 WR.   people dont like drafting the WR3 on any team.   While Geno played well, I dont see him as a guy who can support 3 fantasy WR who all get good numbers.  for him to have value he has to either displace one of the starters or one of them needs to be injured.

Walker is way undervalued.  he should be going at least a round earlier than his ADP.   so if he falls to you at his ADP I recommend you buy.

 

[MDC 5,892]

That I can spend a mo th listening to fantasy podcasts and doing mocks and still immediately botch my draft the second it goes in an unexpected way for like 30 years running.