July Mock (PPR) Strategy analysis

[Ray_T 591]

hey guys.

The july mock was a pleasure to participate in.   the drafters are a knowledgeable group and I think there is definitely valuable information here if you want to break down this draft. (link below to see results)

https://www.fftoday.com/mock/23_july.html

I'm not going to do a deep analysis in terms of who did the better job but I will break down the draft in terms of the strategies used by various mockers.   you can then look at how the team turned out and see how you feel about each strategy.   please no judgements on the selection of certain players.   this is meant to be a discussion on the strategy itself and now you should have an idea of what kind of team you are looking like if you go with each strategy.

The Strategies: I broke these down by two basic strategies:   

1) based on who each Mocker took in their first 2 picks -Basic Strategies:    

WR-WR

TE first round (also zero RB strategy)

Mixed

RB-RB

2) early QB taken (first 4 rounds)   Lots of talk has been on this board surrounding the early drafting of a QB.  so there is a breakdown here of who did this.

 

As lots are looking to go WR-WR this year lets start here:

Strategy 1:   WR-WR- The general strategy in going WR-WR in a PPR draft is that you will dominate at the position that benefits from this scoring format. 

Teams that used this strategy:

The Football Guru-WR-WR (Early QB)

White Wonder-WR-WR-No early QB

first 4 picks:

Jamar Chase-WR

Jaylan Waddle-WR

Mark Andrews-TE

Lamar Jackson-QB

Even though he went WR-WR this is really more of a mixed approach due to the early selections of TE and QB.   he looks like he will have an advantage at the WR position with above average players at TE  and QB.  if we go deeper he does select RB in round 5 and 6 (furthering the argument this is more of a mixed approach)

White Wonder-

Diggs -WR

Garrett Wilson-WR

Gibbs-RB

Etienne-RB

Like Guru, he Took top WR in the first 2 rounds followed by RB in the next 2 rounds.   he took a QB in round 5 followed by another RB.   so once again, while this is classified  as a WR-WR strategy, it really resembles more of a mixed strategy than a pure early WR strategy.

 

Strategy 2: TE first round-(early QB) also zero RB strategy

ICEMAN:  as an alternative strategy this is a good one to pay attention to.   Iceman started TE and then went WR-WR in the next 2 picks followed by a QB in round 4  then 4 straight RB selections after that.   theoretically you could also call this a zero RB strategy as well.   this is useful to look at from that perspective as well.

realistically this is more of a mixed strategy when looking at the whole body of work but I felt any strategy where TE is taken in the first round deserves its own category.   for the record, I think he ended up with a decent team.    I didnt think you could get good RB this late but he did a nice job.  Kamara could be a nice steal and I do like Akers and Pacheco.  both of these young RB have considerable upside.   Between those 3 I dont know that he was really at a disadvantage running the zero RB strategy.   That said, I think the talent at RB was shallow enough that if a second team tried to run the zero RB strategy it could have been a case where neither team would be able to get enough talent at the position late in the draft.

first 4 picks

Kelce(TE)

Devante Adams (WR)

Keenan Allen (WR)

Justin Herbert (QB)

Strategy 3:  Mixed

all teams in this category took an RB and a WR in the first 2 rounds (not necessarily in that order.   Robb took an early QB the rest did not but basically the strategy used appears to be a balanced strategy.   The advantage of this is later in the draft it makes it easier to take the best player available regardless of position.    if you take RB in 3 of the first 4 rounds like I did, it becomes tough to justify taking another RB over the next few rounds even if that is the best player on the board.

Mr Landry

Kupp WR

Stephenson RB

Olave WR

Miles Sanders RB

 

Ralphster

Chubb-RB

Lamb-WR

Mixon-RB

Metcalf-WR

 

Remote Controller

Tyreek Hill

Pollard

Higgins

Cooper

 

Robb-(early QB)

Bijan-RB

AJ Brown-WR

Hurts-QB

Ridley-WR

 

RB-RB

Ray_T- (early QB) This is my own draft.  as I have first hand knowledge of what I was thinking I'm going to give a more detailed commentary of what I did and why.  you wont get this analysis on the other mockers as I dont know why they did what they did and I dont want to speak on their behalf.   with luck I will get them to come on, make their own posts about what they were thinking, and what worked and what didnt.

First 4 picks:

Henry-RB

Jacobs-RB

Allen-QB

Kenneth Walker-RB

 I initially wanted to start with a WR and then go with 2 or 3 straight RB picks, but the majority of the early round picks were actually WR so I felt the value I thought would be here at WR wasnt there, so felt the need to pivot to a different strategy.    I went RB in round 1 and 2.   I also had no plans to take a RB in round 4 but I felt Walker was the best player available at that point in the draft and given that my 2nd RB (Jacobs) could hold out, I figured this was a viable strategy as he could be a top notch flex If Jacobs played and an RB2 if he doesnt.    The flex spot in this league made this strategy a lot more viable as the pick isnt wasted if Jacobs plays.   So this offered me the chance to get an advantage at the flex spot as the top scoring RB at that point in the draft was projected to get more fantasy points than the top rated WR in the draft at the time.   By going RB heavy to start the draft, this gave me an immediate advantage at RB and the flex spot.   taking the first QB off the board in round 3 gave me an advantage at QB as well.    To this end I feel good about the way this draft played out for me.

after the first 4 picks,  I took a whole lot of WR after this point in the draft.   The good news is the draft is still flush with talent at WR at this point in the draft and I did some significant research on some of the players I took and feel I was able to get good value given how late I waited to take my first WR (Round 5)

 

Hawkeye- He also went RB-RB but flipped to WR earlier in the draft than I did.     while this was a RB-RB start, in the end its almost more of a balanced approach as 2 of the first 4 picks were WR and 2 were RB.

first 4 picks:

CMC-RB

Breece Hall-RB

Devonta Smith-WR

Drake London-WR

Shovelheadt-(early QB) also started with 2 RB and ended up with one of the better RB group in the draft. He also got a nice QB late in round 3.  it is worth noting that Burrow was injured partway through this draft leading him to draft a second QB earlier than he otherwise would(and triggering a run on QB that may not have normally happened).   So I would argue he dealt with the most turmoil of anyone in this draft due to this situation.

first 4 picks:

Jonathan Taylor-RB

Sequon Barkley-RB

Joe Burrow-QB

DeAndre Swift-RB

 

 

 

[weepaws 2,461]

I question there knowledge. 

[Ray_T 591]

10 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I question there their knowledge. 

says the guy who apparently cant spell.  I fixed it for you.

[Gepetto 988]

Is there a link to see team by team draft picks sorted by team for rounds 5 - 9? It's kind of hard to evaluate without seeing those.

[Ray_T 591]

when you click on the link you can sort the whole spreadsheet by team.   to to the top column where it says Team and then run a sort on that.

then all my picks (and everyone elses) will appear in either alphabetical by team (or reverse alphabetical if you hit it twice) and in round order

its actually quite simple.

if you need a hand with this send me a direct message and I'll try to help you out with that

 

[Gepetto 988]

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

when you click on the link you can sort the whole spreadsheet by team.   to to the top column where it says Team and then run a sort on that.

then all my picks (and everyone elses) will appear in either alphabetical by team (or reverse alphabetical if you hit it twice) and in round order

its actually quite simple.

if you need a hand with this send me a direct message and I'll try to help you out with that

 

Oh, got it, thanks.

[Gepetto 988]

I think the positional strategies used by everyone in this draft all worked out fine for them. I like robb, the football guru, and iceman teams the most.

[Ray_T 591]

yeah, Iceman was the only one to run zero RB and he also was the only one to grab a TE in round 1.

that guy almost always runs an interesting strategy.  sometimes unorthodox but often effective.

[jrokh 569]

If no one cared in July, why would they at the end of August?

[GobbleDog 816]

1st) Robb (Bijan, Brown, Hurts, Ridley). Swap Bijan for Chubb and I'd really love it.

2nd) Remote (Hill, Pollard, Higgins, Cooper). Would've prefer top Qb or best available Rb in the 4th.

3rd)  Landry (Kupp, Stephenson, Olave, Sanders). A very risky team, but potential for greatness.

 

Can we pick worst team?  Nobody's offended I hope.

12th) Hawkeye (CMC, Hall, Smith, London). Oof. McCaff might stay healthy. So could Hall, but still time sharing. Smith ain't repeating last year at 170 lbs and so many mouths at Eagles. London - not terrible, not special - Mr. meh.

[Ray_T 591]

58 minutes ago, jrokh said:

If no one cared in July, why would they at the end of August?

probably should have created the thread in july for people to look at and discuss.   people can be lazy if its not in front of them

also we are getting closer to draft day so now people are starting to look at this stuff a little more.  either way, there are enough replies that obviously some people seem to be enjoying this even if you are not.

[Ray_T 591]

for the record, the commentary threads for the july mock quite often will have comments from the mockers made at the time of the draft saying in some cases why they liked the player or why the made the pick.   so if you liked for example a particular pick by ICEMAN you can go into the commentary for that round (or group of rounds) to see if he made a comment as to what he was thinking at the time.

this can be a useful tool as well.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

On 8/25/2023 at 8:20 PM, Ray_T said:

probably should have created the thread in july for people to look at and discuss.   people can be lazy if its not in front of them

also we are getting closer to draft day so now people are starting to look at this stuff a little more.  either way, there are enough replies that obviously some people seem to be enjoying this even if you are not.

don't pay attention to jcrok. he's potentially a step below axe elf in the troll / lack of knowledge category. Guy would cream his pants to be invited to a mock used as a publication for the site and was likely following along the whole time at the mocking station. 

 

Thanks for posting the results and some analysis. 

 

Believe it or not, readers of the site do use the june and july mocks when prepping for their own drafts. 

[Ray_T 591]

3 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

don't pay attention to jcrok. he's potentially a step below axe elf in the troll / lack of knowledge category. Guy would cream his pants to be invited to a mock used as a publication for the site and was likely following along the whole time at the mocking station. 

 

Thanks for posting the results and some analysis. 

 

Believe it or not, readers of the site do use the june and july mocks when prepping for their own drafts. 

Axe Elf has been quiet of late to be honest.

either way I find our mocks are good in the sense there is some bragging rights to be had if you got the best team.   Personlly I like testing myself against good competition.    I learned a number of things by participating and I do think there is lots to learn by observing as well.   but its not for everyone.  some see value in Mocks.  some do not   but if you dont like it, you dont have to read the thread.   thats the advantage of having a thread name.   then you dont have to engage if you dont like whats come out of the thread.

[Ray_T 591]

followup:   I like to go back and look at the results at the end of the year to see where the champion won the draft and to see what I could have done better.

also to look for trends in the stats that may give me an edge for future drafts.

if going back to analyze a draft isnt for you, this isnt a post you want to read, so I'll save you the trouble.     but for those who do care, this is a good group of drafters who know their stuff (for the most part) and I think there are lessons to be learned here if you care to read. 

July 2023 PPR Mock - Results - The Mocking Station - FFToday Forums

the link takes you to the mock results posted in the mocking station.

Fantasy Football: 2023 FFToday: July Mock (myfantasyleague.com)

this link takes you to the scoring page.

This is a basic high level analysis.   I could go deeper into the stats if people request it, but honestly I'm just looking to point out interesting data that may help you in your strategy when you draft yourself.

First, congrats to Worm who won the draft.

top 6 results as follows:

1. Worm              2507 points

2. Robb               2441 points

3.  Ray_T             2281 points

4. White Wonder    2266 points

5. Shovelheadt        2257 points

6  Iceman                 2238 points

So Worm won in a landslide, how did he win?

He had 2 top 10 QBs and neither were drafted early.   He had the #5 RB and the #3, 19, and #30 WR

an interesting trend is that 5 of the top 6 teams all had top QB's on their roster.   Worm had the #3 and #9 QB, Robb had the #2 and #14 QB   I had the #1 QB, White Wonder had the #10 and #12 QB  and Shovelhead had the #6 QB

this makes a pretty good case for making sure you nail the QB pick (wherever in the draft you happen to take it)

Best 2 RB was taken By Hawkeye, but White Wonder took the #3, 10, and the #12 ranked RB. (outstanding)

Robb took the #4 and the #8 RB

at WR Ralphster took the #1 WR and the #21 ranked WR

Remote took the #2 and the #20 and worm took the #3 and #17 ranked WR

Robb took the #5 ranked (but #4 in the draft as the #4 ranked WR went undrafted) and the #18 ranked WR

the only true correlation to results was that all the top teams had a top 12 QB and in some cases two of them.

anyhow, thats all I got.  food for everyones thoughts.  I look forward to some discussion from those who wish to talk strategy as well as what went right and wrong for some teams.     one other trend I found was many of the teams at the bottom of the standings suffered with injuries (which is fairly typical actually)

cheers guys.  Lets try to keep this discussion productive.

 

[shovelheadt 62]

Joe Burrow dicked me. First the calf then then season ending wrist injury.

[Maximum Overkill 652]

13 minutes ago, shovelheadt said:

Joe Burrow dicked me. First the calf then then season ending wrist injury.

Haha. Yup, killed me to. 

[Ray_T 591]

57 minutes ago, shovelheadt said:

Joe Burrow dicked me. First the calf then then season ending wrist injury.

yeah, you had the absolute worst luck with him.   once again.... most of the time if your team does not stay healthy, it does not matter how good they are.   if your players dont play, you dont win.   that's the bottom line.

[weepaws 2,461]

Indeed, hurt the two teams in my two leagues that drafted him, double digit rounds is when to take a Qb.  🥳

[LaChup 154]

I'm a big believer in the following criteria: luck is better than skill, big contracts = poor output, have the best team possible, score more points than your opponent, don't let your players get injuries, try and get the top 10 at each position. These are just a few that I have found helpful.

[Ray_T 591]

Well, I draft players based on a number of things.   production on the field is only one of them

When ranking a number of players that are at roughly the same level (or we will say the same tier)   the guy at the bottom of that tier for me is usually the guy least likely to stay healthy based on that players historical health.   If that player falls in the draft, I consider taking that player but I do not pick him ahead of guys in the same tier who have a good history of staying healthy.

while injuries are impossible to avoid completely, by doing this I minimize the odds of having my season de railed by injury.

injury analysis is a big part of what I do when prepping for my draft and honestly most of the times I've had injury problems has been when I have ignored that analysis and took the player anyways. 

I also bump up players on my list who are playing for a contract.  

and I do probably a better job than most in looking at high upside 2nd and 3rd year players.    Naturally I could always do better but I have found that taking risks later in the draft seems to yield more than taking risks early in the draft.

and for me, doing well at the draft table is mostly about risk management.   its also about picking good players, but anyone can take a list of the 100 best players and draft fromt the list and be jsomewhere between slightly below average to slightly above average.   for me this other stuff I spoke about above (if you do a decent job of it) should elevate you just a little bit to put you in contention.

its not a guarantee of a win but it gives you a small advantage.      

think about it.  if you have 1 injury to a starter over the course of the year and most people have 2.  thats likely  a 3 to 10 point advantage you have over most everyone else (depending on position)

it should be a significant part of your strategy.

[ICEMAN 39]

On 4/25/2024 at 11:26 AM, Ray_T said:

Well, I draft players based on a number of things.   production on the field is only one of them

When ranking a number of players that are at roughly the same level (or we will say the same tier)   the guy at the bottom of that tier for me is usually the guy least likely to stay healthy based on that players historical health.   If that player falls in the draft, I consider taking that player but I do not pick him ahead of guys in the same tier who have a good history of staying healthy.

while injuries are impossible to avoid completely, by doing this I minimize the odds of having my season de railed by injury.

injury analysis is a big part of what I do when prepping for my draft and honestly most of the times I've had injury problems has been when I have ignored that analysis and took the player anyways. 

I also bump up players on my list who are playing for a contract.  

and I do probably a better job than most in looking at high upside 2nd and 3rd year players.    Naturally I could always do better but I have found that taking risks later in the draft seems to yield more than taking risks early in the draft.

and for me, doing well at the draft table is mostly about risk management.   its also about picking good players, but anyone can take a list of the 100 best players and draft from the list and be somewhere between slightly below average to slightly above average.   for me this other stuff I spoke about above (if you do a decent job of it) should elevate you just a little bit to put you in contention.

its not a guarantee of a win but it gives you a small advantage.      

think about it.  if you have 1 injury to a starter over the course of the year and most people have 2.  thats likely  a 3 to 10 point advantage you have over most everyone else (depending on position)

it should be a significant part of your strategy.

One of the other things that I take into account is whether they are in the same system as they were last year. If it's the same system (with the same head coach and OC), veterans are likely to have similar results. 2nd & 3rd year players might even see a big leap as they have now been able to become acclimated to the NFL, it's speed and their teams offense. 

 

ICEMAN