2024 Top 10 Wr's

[Maximum Overkill 1,756]

On 6/14/2024 at 2:25 PM, Showboat said:

My not-so-bold prediction is that Russ will be benched before the season ends 

I would say that's a guarantee. They know he's not the future there. 

[gcmmidwest 149]

9 hours ago, defectivesupport said:

Shakir had been doing well last year - and did better in games where Gabe wasn't there.  Now Diggs and Gabe are gone - so 240 targets are up for grabs - most of the rec TDs were also these two, so 15/29 TDs are now up for grabs.  The division is also projected to be competitive, so bills should at least have similar amounts of passing downs as last year.  They have added Chase Claypool and Curtis Samuel and drafted Keon Coleman.  This will have some impact for sure, but Claypool hasn't done anything since 2021, Samuel has consistent 50-60% catch rate and Coleman wasn't the most productive last year in college.  Shakir ran very similar routes to diggs - both in the 8 yard range catches.  My guesses for targets (550 last year) are Shakir(130), kincaid (100), Knox(80), Samuel (70), Cook (50), Coleman (50), claypool (30) --- which still leaves 50 targets from last years total.  

Thax gonna look into it

[Ray_T 741]

20 hours ago, defectivesupport said:

Shakir had been doing well last year - and did better in games where Gabe wasn't there.  Now Diggs and Gabe are gone - so 240 targets are up for grabs - most of the rec TDs were also these two, so 15/29 TDs are now up for grabs.  The division is also projected to be competitive, so bills should at least have similar amounts of passing downs as last year.  They have added Chase Claypool and Curtis Samuel and drafted Keon Coleman.  This will have some impact for sure, but Claypool hasn't done anything since 2021, Samuel has consistent 50-60% catch rate and Coleman wasn't the most productive last year in college.  Shakir ran very similar routes to diggs - both in the 8 yard range catches.  My guesses for targets (550 last year) are Shakir(130), kincaid (100), Knox(80), Samuel (70), Cook (50), Coleman (50), claypool (30) --- which still leaves 50 targets from last years total.  

ok gabe played all last season.  didnt really miss significant time. 

but putting that aside, I see a guy whose efficiency was superior to that which gabe provided.

on 81 targets Gabe caught 45 for 746 yards and 7 TD

on 45 targets Shakir caught 39 for 611 yards and 2 TD.

way more efficient (except TD)   without knowing more of the offense it could be a case where they used Shakir between the 20's and Gabe got the red zone looks.   but I cannot say for sure.   while Gabe appears to be the better Red zone target but if he got all the reps in the red zone that would make sense why he got more TD.

either way, any WR who catches 39 out of 45 targets should get more work the following season.   They'd be dumb not to use him more when the efficiency comes out that high.

I would not be surprised to see his targets rise to somewhere in the range of what gabe had last year.   maybe more if his efficiency continues to stay where it is.   if he can sustain the efficiency with increased reps, the sky is the limit with this kid.    

[weepaws 3,158]

I’m not interested in Shakir.  If I’m going to target one of Buffaloes wr,s it’s going to be Samuel.  

[Maximum Overkill 1,756]

I liked Shakir better when it was just Diggs/Shakir. 

[GobbleDog 985]

On 6/16/2024 at 3:08 AM, defectivesupport said:

and Coleman wasn't the most productive last year in college.

Colelman had monster games against LSU and Clemson early before getting hurt, missed games, and played at less than 100%. Didn't help when FSU's Qb got hurt and was replaced by some god-awful Qbs.  Closer look at stats... Coleman had 87 targets, of which only 55 were chartered as catchable because of horrendous Qb play. Of the 55 - Coleman caught 50, with 11 going for Tds. Another 28 went for 1st downs.

Coleman isn't the fastest and doesn't get much separation, but he knows how to box out and come down with rebounds (former Michigan St basketball player). Allen is going to have a field day chucking it downfield to this kid. No Diggs, no Davis...  only competition is journeyman Samuel and 5th rd pick out of Boise - slot wr Khalil Shakir who hasn't done much in two years. There's a reason the Bills spent their 33rd overall pick on Coleman - he fits with Allen perfectly and they plan on cashing in. Current ADP ... Wr 54.   

[Maximum Overkill 1,756]

2 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Colelman had monster games against LSU and Clemson 

He also disappeared against much lesser competition. You can't just give the good when talking about Coleman. Honestly he's much closer to ok than great. 

[WhiteWonder 2,683]

On 6/12/2024 at 5:45 PM, GobbleDog said:

7) Garrett Wilson ADP 1.10. Played 17 games, 168 tar - 95 rec, 1,042 yds (11.0 avg), 11 deep rec, 3 Tds. Finished 26th last year with 213.2 pts or 12.5 per game. Was 21st in '22. Everything came crashing down with Rogers going out game 1. Fans still haven't seen "the amazing talent" Wilson supposedly possesses in his first two years, but both seasons are attributed to atrocious Qb play

I hate to sound like a Jets homer, as for most of my FF life I have avoided drafting Jets so as not to be twice as disappointed after a bad Sunday...  but I strongly disagree with the red highlighted statement.  I think fans have absolutely seen the amazing talent Wilson has. If it wasn't for this talent, he would not have won offensive ROY and finished with back to back thousand yard seasons. Yes, he has been peppered with targets but only the best receivers in the league would be able to do what he has done with the same level of QB play. If anything, I would say his lack of stats (yards, TDs) is what we attribute to atrocious QB play.  The Jets scored 22 touchdowns last season. It should be reasonable to expect a healthy Rodgers to have the offense scoring 40+ touchdowns. 

If you watch him play, you see the talent. If he had a Dak, Goff, Tua level QB? The numbers would have been there too. 

 

[WhiteWonder 2,683]

So much success is determined by volume. Everyone (aside from JJ) on this list received 145+ targets last year and the average targets (again minus JJ) was 165.  This is kind of why I still trust a guy like Adams and don't mind taking a swing on MHJ. I have every reason to believe the target volume will be there for both players. 

Michael Pittman was 9th in targets last year, mostly with Minshew Mania. Adams is either going to have Minshew or status quo. MHJ should be a target hog immediately based on draft capital and lack of other options in the WR room. Trey McBride will get his share of looks but I expect Harrison to be fed. 

 

The guy who won't end up on any of my teams is Jefferson. Right now, I can't justify a top 6 pick with an unknown QB situation. Not that I am predicting a terrible season, I just anticipate other owners in my league being willing to draft him before me. I would much rather have a top 4 pick, or be 8-12.  What is the difference between JJs situation and Davante Adams? I've seen Adams with O'Connell and seen Minshew effectively feed a #1 WR. And Adams is a mid-late 2nd rounder right now. 

[Ray_T 741]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

I hate to sound like a Jets homer, as for most of my FF life I have avoided drafting Jets so as not to be twice as disappointed after a bad Sunday...  but I strongly disagree with the red highlighted statement.  I think fans have absolutely seen the amazing talent Wilson has. If it wasn't for this talent, he would not have won offensive ROY and finished with back to back thousand yard seasons. Yes, he has been peppered with targets but only the best receivers in the league would be able to do what he has done with the same level of QB play. If anything, I would say his lack of stats (yards, TDs) is what we attribute to atrocious QB play.  The Jets scored 22 touchdowns last season. It should be reasonable to expect a healthy Rodgers to have the offense scoring 40+ touchdowns. 

If you watch him play, you see the talent. If he had a Dak, Goff, Tua level QB? The numbers would have been there too. 

 

without a doubt.   dude was ballin and he didnt even have a starting calibre QB tossing him the ball.

the numbers have to improve for 2 big reasons:

1) when the offense can sustain drives all the offensive numbers improve and TD's improve as well

2) Rodgers is 10x the QB of anyone who tossed him the football last year.    accuracy is far better too.    he should be able to produce as a top 10 (probably top 5) Wr.   the only question is whether Rodgers can remain healthy for a full season.    Hes probably fine but at this age coming off a major injury it is not a given anymore. 

this offense should not even remotely resemble the gong show they had as an offense last year.    it will be fun to watch I suspect.

[WhiteWonder 2,683]

5 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

without a doubt.   dude was ballin and he didnt even have a starting calibre QB tossing him the ball.

the numbers have to improve for 2 big reasons:

1) when the offense can sustain drives all the offensive numbers improve and TD's improve as well

2) Rodgers is 10x the QB of anyone who tossed him the football last year.    accuracy is far better too.    he should be able to produce as a top 10 (probably top 5) Wr.   the only question is whether Rodgers can remain healthy for a full season.    Hes probably fine but at this age coming off a major injury it is not a given anymore. 

this offense should not even remotely resemble the gong show they had as an offense last year.    it will be fun to watch I suspect.

The main issue is Rodgers age, coming off that injury and if we will start to see him suffer smaller, nagging injuries. But I would also be willing to say that Tyrod Taylor is enough of an improvement over Wilson/Boyle/Semien to boost Garrett up a few notches. 

[Ray_T 741]

56 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

The main issue is Rodgers age, coming off that injury and if we will start to see him suffer smaller, nagging injuries. But I would also be willing to say that Tyrod Taylor is enough of an improvement over Wilson/Boyle/Semien to boost Garrett up a few notches. 

a lot of people poo poo Tyrod, but hes actually a decent QB.   he might have still remained a starter if he didnt have health and durability issues.   Not a high end starter mind you, but still better than what they had last year in the wake of the Rodgers injury

[WhiteWonder 2,683]

10 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

a lot of people poo poo Tyrod, but hes actually a decent QB.   he might have still remained a starter if he didnt have health and durability issues.   Not a high end starter mind you, but still better than what they had last year in the wake of the Rodgers injury

 

I am also high on Drake London, much the way I was on Wilson last season, with the promise of a big boost at the QB position.  I am not quite as high because I don't think London is quite as talented but he is still a target of mine.  For example last year I would pick Garrett in the early second. London is more of an early 3rd consideration for me. (yes I know he will be gone)

[Ray_T 741]

2 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

 

I am also high on Drake London, much the way I was on Wilson last season, with the promise of a big boost at the QB position.  I am not quite as high because I don't think London is quite as talented but he is still a target of mine.  For example last year I would pick Garrett in the early second. London is more of an early 3rd consideration for me. (yes I know he will be gone)

I also like London.   where I end up ranking him will likely depend on whether Cousins misses time at the start of the year.

as he is another player who produced 900 yards with terrible QB play, I have to think hes good for over 1000 if Cousins can stay healthy.   possibly more.    i.t can be tough to evaluate a player who had such bad QB play up to this point.   easy to under or over estimate where to take him.

[weepaws 3,158]

I like London, don’t like is current ADP.  Non ppr/ 24th overall wr#13/ ppr/ 13th overall wr#10/ half/ 19th overall/ wr # 11. To much for me.  

[IGotWorms 4,057]

11 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

I hate to sound like a Jets homer, as for most of my FF life I have avoided drafting Jets so as not to be twice as disappointed after a bad Sunday...  but I strongly disagree with the red highlighted statement.  I think fans have absolutely seen the amazing talent Wilson has. If it wasn't for this talent, he would not have won offensive ROY and finished with back to back thousand yard seasons. Yes, he has been peppered with targets but only the best receivers in the league would be able to do what he has done with the same level of QB play. If anything, I would say his lack of stats (yards, TDs) is what we attribute to atrocious QB play.  The Jets scored 22 touchdowns last season. It should be reasonable to expect a healthy Rodgers to have the offense scoring 40+ touchdowns. 

If you watch him play, you see the talent. If he had a Dak, Goff, Tua level QB? The numbers would have been there too. 

 

Agreed with everything except the idea that Rodgers is some kind of savior. He’s 40 years old coming off a bad injury. He’ll probably be better than what they had last year but it might not be by a ton

[IGotWorms 4,057]

45 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I like London, don’t like is current ADP.  Non ppr/ 24th overall wr#13/ ppr/ 13th overall wr#10/ half/ 19th overall/ wr # 11. To much for me.  

Agreed. People are basically drafting him on the assumption that he blows up this year. So where’s the upside?

[weepaws 3,158]

On the other side they have D Mooney, is adp is wr68.  Talk about a great ADP, I’m targeting him.  

[WhiteWonder 2,683]

14 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Agreed with everything except the idea that Rodgers is some kind of savior. He’s 40 years old coming off a bad injury. He’ll probably be better than what they had last year but it might not be by a ton

First off, I never said he was a savior. Top 20 offenses were scoring 38+ touchdowns last year. The Jets were dead last with 22. No one seems to think that Rodgers is cooked in terms of arm talent. So even if he doesn't make them a title contender or even a contender to win their division, from a fantasy standpoint it's very hard to envision him only being marginally better than what they had under center last year. 

I think it's hard to argue that he wont significantly boost Wilsons production. 

[IGotWorms 4,057]

26 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

First off, I never said he was a savior. Top 20 offenses were scoring 38+ touchdowns last year. The Jets were dead last with 22. No one seems to think that Rodgers is cooked in terms of arm talent. So even if he doesn't make them a title contender or even a contender to win their division, from a fantasy standpoint it's very hard to envision him only being marginally better than what they had under center last year. 

I think it's hard to argue that he wont significantly boost Wilsons production. 

I’m just saying, historically I think you maybe had one good year out of Favre at 40 and a couple good years out of Brady (the GOAT) in his 40s… otherwise it just doesn’t happen. Throw in an Achilles injury and it seems like a lot to ask

[WhiteWonder 2,683]

24 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I’m just saying, historically I think you maybe had one good year out of Favre at 40 and a couple good years out of Brady (the GOAT) in his 40s… otherwise it just doesn’t happen. Throw in an Achilles injury and it seems like a lot to ask

How often has it been tried? I get what you're saying and obviously if he gets injured its a moot point, but I dont think he needs to be 40+ Brady to give Wilson the bump he needs to be a top 10 fantasy WR. 

Drew Brees was like 41 his final season and he threw more touchdowns than the Jets entire offense scored last year and he only played 12 games that season. 

[IGotWorms 4,057]

30 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

How often has it been tried? I get what you're saying and obviously if he gets injured its a moot point, but I dont think he needs to be 40+ Brady to give Wilson the bump he needs to be a top 10 fantasy WR. 

Drew Brees was like 41 his final season and he threw more touchdowns than the Jets entire offense scored last year and he only played 12 games that season. 

Yeah I don’t really disagree— just trying to sorta pump the brakes a bit. That said, I’ll be targeting Wilson if I can

[weepaws 3,158]

I think a lot of people agree that Rodgers is going to be a big change maker for Wilson.  Ppr last season Wilson was  wr 24th , a wr3 really.  

His adp currently is wr 8 in all formats.  Based on Wilson’s ppr point total last season , he would need about 57 more points to reach wr8, which was K Allen, using the numbers from FFToday   

I think with a big upgrade at Qb with Rodgers, that should be easily obtainable. 

 

[Maximum Overkill 1,756]

 

 

[DocNiner 67]

Yeah, I bumped Jefferson to 6 and Brown up to 5. I'm.dropping Adams out of my top 10 and think that Mike 3vans could get in there at.10. Possibly Metcalf even if there's 3 players.wanting the ball in Seattle. A little bit of a Longshot but an outside chance of either Drake London or GeorgePickens gets in there. London probably more than Pickens just because of who there QB is. So yeah the biggest in my 10 is Davante Adams not being in there. Not just based solely on his QB situation.but just have a gut feeling that he won't be top 0 this year.

[WhiteWonder 2,683]

On 6/29/2024 at 2:37 PM, weepaws said:

I think a lot of people agree that Rodgers is going to be a big change maker for Wilson.  Ppr last season Wilson was  wr 24th , a wr3 really.  

His adp currently is wr 8 in all formats.  Based on Wilson’s ppr point total last season , he would need about 57 more points to reach wr8, which was K Allen, using the numbers from FFToday   

I think with a big upgrade at Qb with Rodgers, that should be easily obtainable. 

 

I prefer to use PPG and throw away outliers (Mike Williams who only played 3 games for example).  Keenan Allen was a top 3 WR who didn't come back to action because the team was out of it. 

Wilson was also only WR32 (removing Mike Williams), so truly a WR3. 

He needs a 4 ppg increase to crack the top 10 based on 2023. 

 

Thanks, god bless

[weepaws 3,158]

48 total points and that’s the top ten, based on last season. 

Thanks.  HTH. 

[Showboat 252]

Hmmm.  No chatter about CeeDee Lamb.  Reports are that he definitely won't participate in training camp without a new contract.  I think the Cowboys are a hot mess and even if they manage to work out a deal, I think he will disappoint anyone expecting top 5 WR numbers (not to mention #1). 

[weepaws 3,158]

2022 Lamb was #6, is that what you have in mind? 

[Maximum Overkill 1,756]

8 hours ago, Showboat said:

, I think he will disappoint anyone expecting top 5 WR numbers (not to mention #1). 

He led the league with 181 targets last season. 

[Showboat 252]

5 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

He led the league with 181 targets last season. 

Yes, but what will he do this season?  In the financial world they use the axiom that past performance is no guarantee of future results.  I think the Cowboys took a couple of steps backwards compared to the rest of the league and they will not be very good.  Throw in a probable holdout and any buyer taking Lamb as the first or second WR off the board should beware.  The best-case scenario may be that he doesn't get an extension and is playing for a next contract (but that might mean he holds out into the regular season).  Any holdout is problematic as those guys seem to often have nagging injuries throughout the season (and if he gets an extension worked out prior to the season, his motivation might be low once he realizes that the Cowboys stink).  My bold prediction is that he falls out of the top 10.

[weepaws 3,158]

That’s a very bold prediction.  

[IGotWorms 4,057]

1 hour ago, Showboat said:

Yes, but what will he do this season?  In the financial world they use the axiom that past performance is no guarantee of future results.  I think the Cowboys took a couple of steps backwards compared to the rest of the league and they will not be very good.  Throw in a probable holdout and any buyer taking Lamb as the first or second WR off the board should beware.  The best-case scenario may be that he doesn't get an extension and is playing for a next contract (but that might mean he holds out into the regular season).  Any holdout is problematic as those guys seem to often have nagging injuries throughout the season (and if he gets an extension worked out prior to the season, his motivation might be low once he realizes that the Cowboys stink).  My bold prediction is that he falls out of the top 10.

Holdout, yes.

Could be an injury to him or Dak. No way of predicting those though.

Otherwise, you’re likely grasping at straws

[WhiteWonder 2,683]

1 hour ago, Showboat said:

Yes, but what will he do this season?  In the financial world they use the axiom that past performance is no guarantee of future results.  I think the Cowboys took a couple of steps backwards compared to the rest of the league and they will not be very good.  Throw in a probable holdout and any buyer taking Lamb as the first or second WR off the board should beware.  The best-case scenario may be that he doesn't get an extension and is playing for a next contract (but that might mean he holds out into the regular season).  Any holdout is problematic as those guys seem to often have nagging injuries throughout the season (and if he gets an extension worked out prior to the season, his motivation might be low once he realizes that the Cowboys stink).  My bold prediction is that he falls out of the top 10.

Cute financial jargon aside, what has changed in the Cowboys offense to genuinely anticipate a decline for a player who is young and has previously done nothing but climbed the fantasy rankings?

2020/21  WR24 in PPG
2022  WR8
2023  WR1

25 years old. Targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns have increased every season in the league. Dak is still the QB, the run game is more or less the same with Pollard having been a disappointment last year. The supporting receiver  cast is the same as 2023 (Cooks, Ferguson, Tolbert)... Michael Gallup isn't much of a loss. The line wont project to be as good without last years LT and C but still a solid unit. 

Kind of just boils down to the holdout situation at this point. 

[Showboat 252]

No doubt, it's more of a gut feeling on my part.  IMO bold predictions should be based on kernels of truth and plausibility - just trying to lay out what I think those are.  I'm sure many will continue to take Lamb as #1 or #2 WR - I just don't see it as a sure-fire slam dunk.

As noted, the Cowboys have roughly stayed the same - I just don't see any areas where they really upgraded.  When much of the rest of the league is improving and you staying the same, I see that as falling behind  

[WhiteWonder 2,683]

1 hour ago, Showboat said:

No doubt, it's more of a gut feeling on my part.  IMO bold predictions should be based on kernels of truth and plausibility - just trying to lay out what I think those are.  I'm sure many will continue to take Lamb as #1 or #2 WR - I just don't see it as a sure-fire slam dunk.

As noted, the Cowboys have roughly stayed the same - I just don't see any areas where they really upgraded.  When much of the rest of the league is improving and you staying the same, I see that as falling behind  

It's hard to view anything in FF as a sure fire, slam dunk. A case could be made for Lamb, Hill, Amon-Ra, JJ, Chase etc as the top WR drafted. Chances are the top one drafted won't be the #1 at seasons end. When drafting in round 1, I think it's best to take an approach of "which player do I feel has the best chance to be top 3-5 at their position at worst?".

In some ways, the Cowboys not upgrading can be seen as a good thing for fantasy. We don't care if they win more games in real life. We care more that they didn't add a receiver who is going to command too much more target share than Cooks, for example. 

[GobbleDog 985]

On 6/28/2024 at 7:10 AM, WhiteWonder said:

I think fans have absolutely seen the amazing talent Wilson has. If it wasn't for this talent, he would not have won offensive ROY and finished with back to back thousand yard seasons.

That’s fair. Correction “fans still haven’t seen the amazing fantasy output he supposedly posses.”  I agree with those who think Rodgers may not be nearly as good as some hope after the injury/lost season/age. But with Wilson’s talent, it shouldn’t take an MVP type Rodgers to finish in or near top 10. Just competent will do. And if Rodgers does have another great season left in him.… sky’s the limit. Solid pick IMO.

[weepaws 3,158]

3 hours ago, Showboat said:

No doubt, it's more of a gut feeling on my part.  IMO bold predictions should be based on kernels of truth and plausibility - just trying to lay out what I think those are.  I'm sure many will continue to take Lamb as #1 or #2 WR - I just don't see it as a sure-fire slam dunk.

As noted, the Cowboys have roughly stayed the same - I just don't see any areas where they really upgraded.  When much of the rest of the league is improving and you staying the same, I see that as falling behind  

Must have a big gut, that’s a big prediction.  Good luck.  I don’t see that being the case,Lamb not being the highest scoring wr this season wouldn’t be a surprise, but out of the top ten.  Mmm. 

[GobbleDog 985]

3 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

Kind of just boils down to the holdout situation at this point. 

I agree with this. Barring injury or hold-out, hard to foresee Lamb finishing outside top 10. Same coaches, same qb, same system. I don’t think Lamb finishes 1st again as that took a career season from Dak, insane volume and 14 total Lamb Tds (2 were rushing). Doubt all that comes together again, which is why I rank Lamb behind Hill and Chase, but I’d be happy with any of them - all idiot proof. The 1st rd WR pick is easy (early/mid/late) can’t go wrong. It’s the 2nd rd Wr’s that make me nervous. 

[weepaws 3,158]

On 7/3/2024 at 10:09 AM, Showboat said:

No doubt, it's more of a gut feeling on my part.  IMO bold predictions should be based on kernels of truth and plausibility - just trying to lay out what I think those are.  I'm sure many will continue to take Lamb as #1 or #2 WR - I just don't see it as a sure-fire slam dunk.

As noted, the Cowboys have roughly stayed the same - I just don't see any areas where they really upgraded.  When much of the rest of the league is improving and you staying the same, I see that as falling behind  

Minor foot sprain for Dak.  Here comes the boom.