ADP news

[Ray_T 753]

well, in prepping for the July Mock I have some interesting ADP news.

last year more RB's were drafted in round 1 than we are seeing this year (so far)

only 3 in the first 10 and 5 in the first 12.    This is the first year the first round was significantly tilted toward the WR that I have ever seen.

I'm also seeing a lot of discrepencies between ADP and rank.  not just for fftoday but for other sites too.   I suspect thats because of all the player movement we have seen this last year.  anyhow, it would be interesting to see if anyone else has a good take on this.   comment at will.
 

[JagFan 160]

I was looking at ADP on CBS earlier and the thing that stood out the most to me was Breece Hall’s ADP at 2.  That just seems way too high for me.  I get the whole Rodgers thing, but I don’t see good things for the Jets this year.  They always find a way to suck.  

[Ray_T 753]

5 minutes ago, JagFan said:

I was looking at ADP on CBS earlier and the thing that stood out the most to me was Breece Hall’s ADP at 2.  That just seems way too high for me.  I get the whole Rodgers thing, but I don’t see good things for the Jets this year.  They always find a way to suck.  

I was surprised by that too.  I dont know that I'd predict bad things for them.   but I think they wont be as good as everyone thinks they will be. 

that said Rodgers ADP was actually pretty late.  20 among QB and 125 overall.   feels like a Weepaws special haha

[polecatt 478]

1 hour ago, JagFan said:

I was looking at ADP on CBS earlier and the thing that stood out the most to me was Breece Hall’s ADP at 2.  That just seems way too high for me.  I get the whole Rodgers thing, but I don’t see good things for the Jets this year.  They always find a way to suck.  

The only way I would take a RB with the 2nd pick is if the person with the 1st pick doesn't draft Christian McCaffrey...

Breece Hall will probably have a fine season, but there's several WRs I would draft before him

[Ray_T 753]

48 minutes ago, polecatt said:

The only way I would take a RB with the 2nd pick is if the person with the 1st pick doesn't draft Christian McCaffrey...

Breece Hall will probably have a fine season, but there's several WRs I would draft before him

Yeah I like Breece too. and I agree #2 is a bit crazy.  Hes a nice talent but people are overpaying at that price.   hes an RB1 for sure.   but I like a little more certainty than he provides at his ADP.    if Rodgers gets hurt again that pick immediately becomes a problem.   

to be clear I'm not predicting that, but at his age and the fact hes coming off a major injury, his continued good health is not by any means a given.    and the value of all the offensive players to some degree is derived from the value they get in an Aaron Rodgers led offense.    More Total yards, more TD and more plays from scrimmage due to more first downs.  That touches everyone.

to complicate things Breece is also returning from an injury himself and had himself a subpar year last year because of it.

I dont deny he belongs in the top 10 in terms of RB rankings.   Maybe even top 5.   But I dont know that I'd be considering him at #2 overall.

[weepaws 3,187]

22 plus points in half ppr, 4 out of the last five games of last season for Hall, and now possibly getting a big uptick at Qb, I’m not surprised buy is #2 overall ranking.  

[GobbleDog 995]

8 hours ago, Ray_T said:

if Rodgers gets hurt again that pick immediately becomes a problem.   

to complicate things Breece is also returning from an injury himself and had himself a subpar year last year because of it.

The Jets had some of worst Qb play in league ... Hall finished 4th (week 1-17). So I don't get the logic "If Rogers gets hurt again..."

He tore his acl in Week 7 of '22. Didn't miss a game last year and ... finished 4th. Hardly a "sub-par year."

I'm the last person to advocate taking a Rb early, but Hall's #2 ranking makes perfect sense. Great metrics, lots of receptions, all goal line work... and now playing for an improved Jets team. He'd be the next Rb I'd draft after McCaff.

[Ray_T 753]

4 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

The Jets had some of worst Qb play in league ... Hall finished 4th (week 1-17). So I don't get the logic "If Rogers gets hurt again..."

He tore his acl in Week 7 of '22. Didn't miss a game last year and ... finished 4th. Hardly a "sub-par year."

I'm the last person to advocate taking a Rb early, but Hall's #2 ranking makes perfect sense. Great metrics, lots of receptions, all goal line work... and now playing for an improved Jets team. He'd be the next Rb I'd draft after McCaff.

he had less than 1000 yards rushing.  for his talent I consider that to be subpar for him.    hes talented enough to do better.  

so maybe its a matter of perspective.

[WhiteWonder 2,733]

15 hours ago, JagFan said:

I was looking at ADP on CBS earlier and the thing that stood out the most to me was Breece Hall’s ADP at 2.  That just seems way too high for me.  I get the whole Rodgers thing, but I don’t see good things for the Jets this year.  They always find a way to suck.  

(disclaimer: Jets fan)

I usually avoid Jets in FF but Hall is my #2 RB this year, so his ADP at 2 only surprises me because my guess is that most people would lean toward CeeDee or Tyreek after CMC is gone. 

But the thing is, Hall was RB2 overall and RB6 by points per game last year WITHOUT Rodgers, running behind a swiss cheese offensive line. It's really more about having a legit QB under center this year than it is specifically about Aaron Rodgers turning Hall into a stud. Hall is already a proven stud. There is no way that the additions the Jets made to the offensive line (Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, John Simpson and Olu Fashanu) plus a healthy, competent QB, doesn't help to open up the run game even more. 

In a league where workhorse backs are less and less prominent,  you have some people that view them as even more valuable in FF and some who view the position as one to pass on early. 

Depending on the league, my personal rank of Hall is anywhere from #2 to #5.  #5 if I feel I should target WR early, in which case I would lean toward Lamb, Hill and Chase before Hall. 

[Ray_T 753]

2 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

(disclaimer: Jets fan)

I usually avoid Jets in FF but Hall is my #2 RB this year, so his ADP at 2 only surprises me because my guess is that most people would lean toward CeeDee or Tyreek after CMC is gone. 

But the thing is, Hall was RB2 overall and RB6 by points per game last year WITHOUT Rodgers, running behind a swiss cheese offensive line. It's really more about having a legit QB under center this year than it is specifically about Aaron Rodgers turning Hall into a stud. Hall is already a proven stud. There is no way that the additions the Jets made to the offensive line (Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, John Simpson and Olu Fashanu) plus a healthy, competent QB, doesn't help to open up the run game even more. 

In a league where workhorse backs are less and less prominent,  you have some people that view them as even more valuable in FF and some who view the position as one to pass on early. 

Depending on the league, my personal rank of Hall is anywhere from #2 to #5.  #5 if I feel I should target WR early, in which case I would lean toward Lamb, Hill and Chase before Hall. 

to be frank hes a first round pick.   but not #1 for me.

luckily (or unluckily)I wont need to worry about it in the July Mock.  I draft #12.  pretty sure he will be gone before I get a chance to even consider him.

[Ray_T 753]

and to be clear, I also highly value workhorse backs.... so long as they can stay healthy

[WhiteWonder 2,733]

38 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

he had less than 1000 yards rushing.  for his talent I consider that to be subpar for him.    hes talented enough to do better.  

He is talented enough to do better. I think this is a little bit where the o-line issues and QB play comes into the equation. I think what he did last year was very impressive considering teams could stack the box and the Jets had so many injuries on the line.  Saquon, for example, had less yards on more carries (also playing behind a crap o-line). 

He may have failed to surpass 1k yards but he was 13th overall in rush yards. Granted he played 17 games. 

[Ray_T 753]

3 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

He is talented enough to do better. I think this is a little bit where the o-line issues and QB play comes into the equation. I think what he did last year was very impressive considering teams could stack the box and the Jets had so many injuries on the line.  Saquon, for example, had less yards on more carries (also playing behind a crap o-line). 

He may have failed to surpass 1k yards but he was 13th overall in rush yards. Granted he played 17 games. 

he did better than most people do coming back from an ACL injury.

I cannot deny that.

[wolves111 106]

59 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

to be frank hes a first round pick.   but not #1 for me.

luckily (or unluckily)I wont need to worry about it in the July Mock.  I draft #12.  pretty sure he will be gone before I get a chance to even consider him.

I’m drafting 10th and like you he’ll be long gone. Most likely two of Gibbs, Taylor and Barkley at rb will be there.

How you ranking them?

[Ray_T 753]

I actually dont like Taylor in the sense he seems to miss games every year.   

if you consider there is a lot of miles on the odometer too.

people look at carries over a career, but if looking at that you should also look at college.    factoring that in, I think hes had more touches than Derrick Henry.  (a buddy of mine checked I'm assuming he did his math right)     so that being said,  not as keen on him.  like the talent, not the injuries.

Gibbs may also be gone, though I do like him  Probably about the same as Sequon.   Sequon is more of a proven commodity but I think Gibbs has a bit more upside.  so its really mostly a matter of preference.  I prefer Sequon, but wouldnt be unhappy if someone took him and Gibbs was sitting there for me to take.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

There are not many backs worth a top pick

[Ray_T 753]

5 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

There are not many backs worth a top pick

what used to make RB's the better early buy is the dropoff from the elite to the rest.   significant dropoffs in the past.

Even looking at the fftoday ratings.... after CMC at 274 projected fantasy points you have about 4 RB projected at 210 to 220 fantasy points and Henry at 200.  after that its a slow creep down to 180 fantasy points.   that decline used to be more steep and thus it made sense to grab a RB early but if you now look at the wr rankings the separation is greater for the first few and then looks fairly similar to the separation you see at RB.    so the key is to get as many of those who have separated themselves as superior players as possible.   all the rest are mostly interchangable from a statistical perspective.   obviously our job is to find out which ones have the greatest upside or chance to break out and try to get those.  but its all speculative.

I'd say if you dont get a RB in the first 13-18 picks you might as well wait and go zero RB strategy

[weepaws 3,187]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

what used to make RB's the better early buy is the dropoff from the elite to the rest.   significant dropoffs in the past.

Even looking at the fftoday ratings.... after CMC at 274 projected fantasy points you have about 4 RB projected at 210 to 220 fantasy points and Henry at 200.  after that its a slow creep down to 180 fantasy points.   that decline used to be more steep and thus it made sense to grab a RB early but if you now look at the wr rankings the separation is greater for the first few and then looks fairly similar to the separation you see at RB.    so the key is to get as many of those who have separated themselves as superior players as possible.   all the rest are mostly interchangable from a statistical perspective.   obviously our job is to find out which ones have the greatest upside or chance to break out and try to get those.  but its all speculative.

I'd say if you dont get a RB in the first 13-18 picks you might as well wait and go zero RB strategy

Depending on leagues scoring system.  

[Ray_T 753]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

Depending on leagues scoring system.  

of course

[Phil Simms 11 133]

I’d pick Hall if I get the second pick. 

[Ray_T 753]

5 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

I’d pick Hall if I get the second pick. 

there are enough of you saying this that I am forced to admit its not as crazy as I thought.   

I was pretty sure at the very least that the 4 big WR would likely go ahead of him but I guess not so much

for the record he just went 1.04 in the July PPR Mock