Thoughts on Fruit Loops back in Dallas?

[JagFan 149]

What are you all projecting for him?  I could see 200 carries, 400 yards, and him rolling into the end zone for 8 TDs.

[weepaws 3,157]

I do think he’s going to had 40 plus rec to your total.  

[weepaws 3,157]

In ppr last season he was rb#30.  So worthy of a rb4, imo.  He’s going to be on a much better offense. 

[GobbleDog 984]

I'm the guy who doesn't draft Rb's early...  not til rounds 4 or 5, in a 12-teamer to boot. 

If anyone should be hyping Zeke, it's me. But I ain't. I can't. I think he's totally cooked. Metrics are garbage and have been for two years now. This has rbbc written all over it and good luck guessing which Rb has a semi-decent week or even finishes with most carries/touches by season end. Looking back at what Zeke did 2 or 3 years ago is meaningless for a 29 yo washed Rb. 

Wish he was a late round gem, because Lord knows I'll need 'em.  But I don't see it. Rather take a shot on Benson in that adp range.

[JagFan 149]

I’m anticipating a Jerome Bettis circa 2003-2005 end of career year.  150-200 carries, 3.3 ypc, 25-30 catches, and 7-12 td’s.   That’s firmly in RB 2/3 territory if you go WR heavy early.

[GobbleDog 984]

Can't argue with 150 car, 3.3 ypc, or 30+ rec...... but "7-12 Tds" - ya lost me.

He's a solid goal-line back... yeah, he was a solid goal line Rb in the 1920's.  Pollard had better metrics and finished with 6 Tds. I get it - Td's are fluky.  But that's the thing - he'll be Td dependent, and I can't expect many Td's and the few that come will be fluky.

I'd rather draft a lotto pick rather than deal with "what the hell is Zeke gonna do this week?" At least a lotto pick might turn into something great. There's no greatness left in Zeke. It's over Johnny.

[Ray_T 740]

53 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Can't argue with 150 car, 3.3 ypc, or 30+ rec...... but "7-12 Tds" - ya lost me.

He's a solid goal-line back... yeah, he was a solid goal line Rb in the 1920's.  Pollard had better metrics and finished with 6 Tds. I get it - Td's are fluky.  But that's the thing - he'll be Td dependent, and I can't expect many Td's and the few that come will be fluky.

I'd rather draft a lotto pick rather than deal with "what the hell is Zeke gonna do this week?" At least a lotto pick might turn into something great. There's no greatness left in Zeke. It's over Johnny.

honestly I think the goal line TDs are the one thing about him you can rely on.  its the rest of the workload I'm not sure about

[IGotWorms 4,057]

He is not good. Washed up. Yeah Pats stunk but he was part of the rubble heap

[polecatt 474]

You just have to have realistic expectations for him.

If you're expecting him to go back to his 2017 form or something like that, you will be quite disappointed.

If you expect him to be a PPR, goal line RB, to have on the bench for depth, then that's a bit more reasonable.

 

[weepaws 3,157]

One week R Freeman looks like their rb1, this week it’s Dowdle, and of course the Zeke is in the conversation,  avoid.  

[GobbleDog 984]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

One week R Freeman looks like their rb1, this week it’s Dowdle, and of course the Zeke is in the conversation,  avoid.  

Read the same... all getting snaps with the first team. This quote sounds like they've all been told they'll be using committee Rb's all season.

“We haven’t done a running back by committee here so I’m not sure with how it will all go,’’ Rico Dowdle said after Monday’s practice. “But expectations for myself are to do more than I did last year, whatever that may be."

[WhiteWonder 2,675]

Easily a good pick as an RB4 on draft day. Had he gone to play anywhere else, then no... but the comfort factor in Dallas makes me believe he will be given every opportunity to be the lead guy. Now "lead guy" is still going to be a committee, but last year he had 950 total yards, 51 receptions and 5 TDs.  I can see 1000 total yards, 40 receptions and 8 TDs in a vastly better offense....  hes basically 2023 Najee Harris.   winds up being a solid RB3

[TBayXXXVII 2,483]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

Easily a good pick as an RB4 on draft day. Had he gone to play anywhere else, then no... but the comfort factor in Dallas makes me believe he will be given every opportunity to be the lead guy. Now "lead guy" is still going to be a committee, but last year he had 950 total yards, 51 receptions and 5 TDs.  I can see 1000 total yards, 40 receptions and 8 TDs in a vastly better offense....  hes basically 2023 Najee Harris.   winds up being a solid RB3

Fair assessment.

[TBayXXXVII 2,483]

On 8/5/2024 at 10:16 PM, GobbleDog said:

Can't argue with 150 car, 3.3 ypc, or 30+ rec...... but "7-12 Tds" - ya lost me.

He's a solid goal-line back... yeah, he was a solid goal line Rb in the 1920's.  Pollard had better metrics and finished with 6 Tds. I get it - Td's are fluky.  But that's the thing - he'll be Td dependent, and I can't expect many Td's and the few that come will be fluky.

I'd rather draft a lotto pick rather than deal with "what the hell is Zeke gonna do this week?" At least a lotto pick might turn into something great. There's no greatness left in Zeke. It's over Johnny.

Elliott's ADP is 104 as RB36, that's pick 9.8 in a 12-team league.  That's not a bad spot to take an RB3/4 who could give you RB2 numbers here and there... just gotta hope that it's when you need it.  But, isn't that the same with every RB3/4?  I mean, if they were more reliable/predictable, they'd be an RB2, no?  It's not like Elliott's going in Round 7 or something where you're expecting to start him every week.

[weepaws 3,157]

Should finish around what he did last season, maybe a little better with more scoring opportunities.  

[GobbleDog 984]

23 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Elliott's ADP is 104 as RB36, that's pick 9.8 in a 12-team league.  That's not a bad spot to take an RB3/4 who could give you RB2 numbers here and there... just gotta hope that it's when you need it.  But, isn't that the same with every RB3/4?  I mean, if they were more reliable/predictable, they'd be an RB2, no?  It's not like Elliott's going in Round 7 or something where you're expecting to start him every week.

Some metrics outside of pure volume in analyzing Rb's - decent Rbs typically rank around 20th in most of these:

Zeke's '23 ranking.... True yac 60th, Yds per touch 51st, Yds created per touch 34th, Juke rate 42nd, Breakaway rate 57th, Production premium 35th

Well, that was New England and they stunk. Perhaps he was better in Dallas.... nope, his '22 and '21 rankings were similarly terrible. Zeke is the definition of a cooked Rb. With those metrics, it'd take a ridiculous amount of touches for him to get 1,000 total yards.  "But Zeke had 955 total yards last year"... true and 49% of that came from Week 13 onward - after Stephenson got injured.

If you start Zeke, the best you can hope for is a fluky Td and 2-3 receptions. And that's on a good day. Imagine all the weeks you'll be glad you didn't start him. Even in the 9th/10th round, he seems more like a wasted pick and season-long roster clogger. I'd rather take a dart throw on lotto ticket that might turn into something.

[weepaws 3,157]

Zeke might turn into something, I think a good rb4, with a possible rb3 flex start if needed. But only in ppr.  Like Him less  non ppr. 

[polecatt 474]

13 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Zeke might turn into something, I think a good rb4, with a possible rb3 flex start if needed. But only in ppr.  Like Him less  non ppr. 

Agreed. He's more valuable in PPR because he is likely to avg 2-3 catches or so a game. Which is a big deal for all the RBs past the top dozen or so. That makes him serviceable most games. Beyond that, you're basically hoping he finds the end zone. He's gonna get something like 30-50 yards a game otherwise.

[Ray_T 740]

7 hours ago, polecatt said:

Agreed. He's more valuable in PPR because he is likely to avg 2-3 catches or so a game. Which is a big deal for all the RBs past the top dozen or so. That makes him serviceable most games. Beyond that, you're basically hoping he finds the end zone. He's gonna get something like 30-50 yards a game otherwise.

I think he will do well in the TD department as well.  as mentioned earlier, if hes your RB4 you're doing really well.  and if anything happens to Rico, the guy instantly becomes an RB3, possibly even a low end RB2 if they make him into a workhorse again though I'd say for that scenario to play out everything would need to go right for him.   Rico gets hurt.  and dallas taking the early lead on the strength of their defense and running the ball like mad to kill the clock.  Zeke is a physical runner.   he was always good at beating up a tired defense late in games.

[MDC 7,129]

Zeke is basically free at his ADP and likely to get the GL work for one of the best offenses in the league. Sign me up.

[weepaws 3,157]

1 hour ago, MDC said:

Zeke is basically free at his ADP and likely to get the GL work for one of the best offenses in the league. Sign me up.

And receive targets in the passing, I think his ff season will look similar to last season, but more tds. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,483]

On 8/12/2024 at 11:59 AM, GobbleDog said:

Some metrics outside of pure volume in analyzing Rb's - decent Rbs typically rank around 20th in most of these:

Zeke's '23 ranking.... True yac 60th, Yds per touch 51st, Yds created per touch 34th, Juke rate 42nd, Breakaway rate 57th, Production premium 35th

Well, that was New England and they stunk. Perhaps he was better in Dallas.... nope, his '22 and '21 rankings were similarly terrible. Zeke is the definition of a cooked Rb. With those metrics, it'd take a ridiculous amount of touches for him to get 1,000 total yards.  "But Zeke had 955 total yards last year"... true and 49% of that came from Week 13 onward - after Stephenson got injured.

If you start Zeke, the best you can hope for is a fluky Td and 2-3 receptions. And that's on a good day. Imagine all the weeks you'll be glad you didn't start him. Even in the 9th/10th round, he seems more like a wasted pick and season-long roster clogger. I'd rather take a dart throw on lotto ticket that might turn into something.

In general I agree, but metrics go out the window when there's uncontested volume.  Let's not pretend that Rhamondre was tearing it up before he got hurt.  He was only averaging 4.0 ypc., his catch% was similar to Elliott's, and didn't score on any of his receptions.  You criticized Rachaad White because his metrics were bad, but the volume produced a top 5 RB.  In fantasy football, volume is everything, metrics only matter when you're comparing apples to apples... that's not what this is.  You're comparing a split duty RB on a bad team with a terrible offense and equating that to a starting RB on a good team with a good line.  I know you, don't care about offensive lines.

Now, if you're going to tell me that there's going to be a RB outside of Elliott that will command a lot of touches, I'm all ears.  As I see it, Deuce Vaughn isn't likely to get many carries, neither would I expect much from Freeman or anyone else.  Now, Dowdle's name has popped up a few times.  If you think and/or have info on why and how he's going to get a good chunk of playing time, post what you have.

In Dallas in 2021 and 2022 that you're poo pooing his metrics, he was RB7 and RB22 those years.  Remember, no one here is claiming that Elliott is a RB1 or RB2... so if Elliott could be an RB1 or RB2 with terrible metrics in Dallas, why can't he be a legit RB3 or RB4 worthy of a 9th or 10th round pick?  What "lottery ticket" are you going to get there?  Gus Edwards, Chase Brown, Jerome Ford?

[GobbleDog 984]

5 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

In general I agree, but metrics go out the window when there's uncontested volume.  Let's not pretend that Rhamondre was tearing it up before he got hurt.  He was only averaging 4.0 ypc., his catch% was similar to Elliott's, and didn't score on any of his receptions.  You criticized Rachaad White because his metrics were bad, but the volume produced a top 5 RB.  In fantasy football, volume is everything, metrics only matter when you're comparing apples to apples... that's not what this is.  You're comparing a split duty RB on a bad team with a terrible offense and equating that to a starting RB on a good team with a good line.  I know you, don't care about offensive lines.

Now, if you're going to tell me that there's going to be a RB outside of Elliott that will command a lot of touches, I'm all ears.  As I see it, Deuce Vaughn isn't likely to get many carries, neither would I expect much from Freeman or anyone else.  Now, Dowdle's name has popped up a few times.  If you think and/or have info on why and how he's going to get a good chunk of playing time, post what you have. 

In Dallas in 2021 and 2022 that you're poo pooing his metrics, he was RB7 and RB22 those years.

Volume is king. That's how Zeke finished Rb 7 in '21 despite poor metrics... like White last year as you said. Etienne too. So how much volume will the Cowboys realistically give him?  Sounds you think Zeke will get "uncontested volume." I totally disagree, based on all four Rbs getting first-team reps and on what Dowdle himself said last week about their "committee Rb" system. Along with the likelihood Zeke just stinks it up and forces them to rotate Rbs.

FFMike projects 187 car, 35 rec, 948 total yds, 7 Tds... seems generous to me, but let's say that's right - would've ranked Rb 29 last year, assuming he stays healthy all year (despite age/millage) and actually meets those projections. So for a potential Rb 29, you're giving up an 8th/9th round pick, letting Zeke clog your bench all year, in hopes of the few games you might need him he's still healthy and scores a fluke Td.?. Think I'd rather spend my late round picks on Lotto tickets with upside potential. I just don't understand the Zeke support, other than pure name-recognition.

[weepaws 3,157]

20 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Volume is king. That's how Zeke finished Rb 7 in '21 despite poor metrics... like White last year as you said. Etienne too. So how much volume will the Cowboys realistically give him?  Sounds you think Zeke will get "uncontested volume." I totally disagree, based on all four Rbs getting first-team reps and on what Dowdle himself said last week about their "committee Rb" system. Along with the likelihood Zeke just stinks it up and forces them to rotate Rbs.

FFMike projects 187 car, 35 rec, 948 total yds, 7 Tds... seems generous to me, but let's say that's right - would've ranked Rb 29 last year, assuming he stays healthy all year (despite age/millage) and actually meets those projections. So for a potential Rb 29, you're giving up an 8th/9th round pick, letting Zeke clog your bench all year, in hopes of the few games you might need him he's still healthy and scores a fluke Td.?. Think I'd rather spend my late round picks on Lotto tickets with upside potential. I just don't understand the Zeke support, other than pure name-recognition.

Rb #29 on my bench is a good lotto pick based on his current adp, which is rb# 36-39.   Any lotto pick is just that, a pick of hope.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,483]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Volume is king. That's how Zeke finished Rb 7 in '21 despite poor metrics... like White last year as you said. Etienne too. So how much volume will the Cowboys realistically give him?  Sounds you think Zeke will get "uncontested volume." I totally disagree, based on all four Rbs getting first-team reps and on what Dowdle himself said last week about their "committee Rb" system. Along with the likelihood Zeke just stinks it up and forces them to rotate Rbs.

FFMike projects 187 car, 35 rec, 948 total yds, 7 Tds... seems generous to me, but let's say that's right - would've ranked Rb 29 last year, assuming he stays healthy all year (despite age/millage) and actually meets those projections. So for a potential Rb 29, you're giving up an 8th/9th round pick, letting Zeke clog your bench all year, in hopes of the few games you might need him he's still healthy and scores a fluke Td.?. Think I'd rather spend my late round picks on Lotto tickets with upside potential. I just don't understand the Zeke support, other than pure name-recognition.

Who do you think is going to get carries?  Last year he got over 230 from New England in a RBBC role.  Last year, Dallas ran the ball 468 times, 531 the year before that, 473 the prior year, and in 2020, 430 times.  So, I think it's safe to say that they're going to run the ball about 475 times.  So, if the starting point is 475 and we'll knock of 75 for QB runs and gadget plays, leaving us with 400.  Who's getting what?  You don't think Elliott is getting at least half?  If not, why?  Who?  Like I said, if you think there's someone on that roster or group of someone's getting 200+ carries, I'd love to know who and the rationale.

Yes, I think RB29 and RB3/4 going in the 9th/10th round seems perfectly reasonable to me.  When do you take your 3rd or 4th RB?

Of course he has to stay healthy, everyone does.  Elliott has played in at least 15 games in 7 of his 8 years... he played in all 17 last year (with 235 total touches).  Why do you think he'll all of a sudden just get hurt and miss, I don't know... 5 games or more?  Again, yes, he will be TD dependent... just like every other RB3/4.  How many RB3's or 4's that you know of, aren't TD dependent?

How are you constructing your team?  Are you waiting until the last 2 rounds (before the kicker and defense), to take your lotto pick RB3 and RB4?  If so, that's fine.  I just think most of us aren't going to take that route.

 

Mike has Dallas' breakdown as...   

Ezekiel Elliott: 186

Rico Dowdle: 100

Malik Davis: 38

Deuce Vaughn: 19

That's 343 rush attempts by RB's.  Let's give QB's and trick plays 75, bringing us to 418.  With the expectation of 475, who's getting the other 57 carries plus the I don't know, 30 extra that you don't think Elliott is getting?  Who's accounting for 80 carries?  Dowdle?  You think he gets the 180 based on him saying they're in a committee?  If so, I guess we know who your lottery ticket guy is. 

 

I've read your posts, they're well thought out and backed up.  You're not like "Mr. Nuh uh" on these boards who just says 'you're wrong' and doesn't give any rebuttal.  Don't be like him here.  Just because Dowdle says he and Freeman are getting a lot of reps with the 1's, I'm not buying that.  

Mike McCarthy: 
 

Quote

"We're running back by committee," McCarthy explained. "But I think he'll definitely play at the level that he's played, I know, in my time here. I anticipate that. I don't see any drop off in the way he moves. He's in good shape.

"…He's come in here, and he's picked up right where he left off."

McCarthy says they're a RBBC, but he expects Elliott to be what he was.  In the 3 years Elliott was in Dallas with McCarthy, his average season was 237 carries & 38 receptions.  No, I don't think Elliott will get 275 total touches, but I think he'll hit 225.

[TBayXXXVII 2,483]

On 8/8/2024 at 11:26 AM, weepaws said:

One week R Freeman looks like their rb1, this week it’s Dowdle, and of course the Zeke is in the conversation,  avoid.  

Freeman has been a bad RB his whole career.  Dowdle's been in the league 3 seasons and got 90% of his total carries (which is still less than 100), last season.  Elliott's been in the league 7 seasons with over 2000 carries and 2400 total touches.  Who do you think needs more work in camp?

[weepaws 3,157]

14 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Freeman has been a bad RB his whole career.  Dowdle's been in the league 3 seasons and got 90% of his total carries (which is still less than 100), last season.  Elliott's been in the league 7 seasons with over 2000 carries and 2400 total touches.  Who do you think needs more work in camp?

With all that mileage on the Zeke, the other two can handle the extra camp work,  they need to reserve the usage on the Zeke.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,483]

1 minute ago, weepaws said:

With all that mileage on the Zeke, the other two can handle the extra camp work,  they need to reserve the usage on the Zeke.  

That's what I think as well.  I don't believe that is any indication of usage during the regular season.

[GobbleDog 984]

10 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Who do you think is going to get carries? 

How are you constructing your team?  Are you waiting until the last 2 rounds (before the kicker and defense), to take your lotto pick RB3 and RB4?  If so, that's fine.  I just think most of us aren't going to take that route.

Just think it's more spread out. Zeke's been amazingly durable, but health is still a big concern at his age/millage. And of course the volume/efficiency or lack thereof. I just look at players around Zeke's adp who seem to have more upside... and they aren't all Td dependent. Could be playing at Rb 1 or 2 levels by season's end - Brooks, Benson, Chubb... etc.

Roster construction wise my strategy is four Rbs by round 8. I'm usually drafting non-Rbs in 9, 10, 11 ... so I'll miss out on Zeke and those other Rbs regardless. Take my "lotto" picks in 12 - 14. Somebody like McLaughlin, Miller, Estime, etc. whatever. But in every draft I'm walking away with the greatest Rb sleeper this season - Kimani Vidal. 

[weepaws 3,157]

Miller can’t stay healthy.  

[GobbleDog 984]

11 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Miller can’t stay healthy.  

Yeah. Coach called him out on it too recently. That's not good.

[polecatt 474]

Looking at his player profile in my league, on ESPN here's his projected stats for the season...

191 carries for 753 yards and 6 TDs on the ground. 32 catches for 217 yards and a TD in the air.

Sounds reasonable I would say

[TBayXXXVII 2,483]

2 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Just think it's more spread out. Zeke's been amazingly durable, but health is still a big concern at his age/millage. And of course the volume/efficiency or lack thereof. I just look at players around Zeke's adp who seem to have more upside... and they aren't all Td dependent. Could be playing at Rb 1 or 2 levels by season's end - Brooks, Benson, Chubb... etc.

Roster construction wise my strategy is four Rbs by round 8. I'm usually drafting non-Rbs in 9, 10, 11 ... so I'll miss out on Zeke and those other Rbs regardless. Take my "lotto" picks in 12 - 14. Somebody like McLaughlin, Miller, Estime, etc. whatever. But in every draft I'm walking away with the greatest Rb sleeper this season - Kimani Vidal. 

That's fair, I don't see it that way.  I see a bunch of JAG's that are going to get touches here and there and I think Elliott will get every chance to be productive.  I think he'll be fine.  I see him getting around 215 carries and I believe he can get 4 ypc.  I can see 1000 total yards and 10 TD's and be in the mid-to late 20's as a decent RB3.  Dowdle last year barely hit 4 ypc by 6 yards.  It's not like he was around 4.5 ypc.  Even in a crappy year with a crappy line and crappy team, Elliott was able to hit 3.5 ypc.

 

Ok, you're a top heavy RB guy.  That's fine.  You're taking your 4th RB before people are taking their 3rd.  I have no issue with that strategy.  Most people apparently don't follow that because we're seeing, the majority of rosters are still drafting RB3's by the completion 9 (based on adp), where you're past that point 2 rounds earlier.  You're also playing a more riskier game though.  Benson, at best, is getting scraps until Connor gets hurt... which he probably will, he always does.  On top of that, he's playing with a QB who absolutely will vulture TD's.  I don't understand your inconsistency on this.  You think that Benson could be a RB1/2 while playing with Murray who will run and will steal rushing TD's, but you think that Hurts will run less and steal less Murray TD's from Barkley, yet he won't be a RB1 playing the whole year as the lead back.  Also, both Chubb and Brooks are coming off ACL's.  That virtually never goes well... on top of that, this is Chubb's second ACL tear.  You're looking to take guys like that in Round's 5 through 7?

No issues with the guys in R's 12-14... they're always shot's in the dark.  I wouldn't fault anyone from taking anybody in those rounds.

[TBayXXXVII 2,483]

1 hour ago, polecatt said:

Looking at his player profile in my league, on ESPN here's his projected stats for the season...

191 carries for 753 yards and 6 TDs on the ground. 32 catches for 217 yards and a TD in the air.

Sounds reasonable I would say

Last year, that would be RB19.  That's a mid RB2 that you're getting right now at mid to high RB3.

[polecatt 474]

11 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Last year, that would be RB19.  That's a mid RB2 that you're getting right now at mid to high RB3.

That's how far RBs have fallen.

It used to be, an RB that put up those numbers wouldn't see the starting lineup except on desperate occasions, and may not even be rostered at all.

If you don't get one of the top 6-8 or 10 or so RBs, the next 25 or so are almost identical in terms of their value.

[TBayXXXVII 2,483]

4 minutes ago, polecatt said:

That's how far RBs have fallen.

It used to be, an RB that put up those numbers wouldn't see the starting lineup except on desperate occasions, and may not even be rostered at all.

If you don't get one of the top 6-8 or 10 or so RBs, the next 25 or so are almost identical in terms of their value.

Agreed.

[GobbleDog 984]

12 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Ok, you're a top heavy RB guy.  That's fine.  You're taking your 4th RB before people are taking their 3rd.  I have no issue with that strategy.  Most people apparently don't follow that because we're seeing, the majority of rosters are still drafting RB3's by the completion 9 (based on adp), where you're past that point 2 rounds earlier.  You're also playing a more riskier game though.  Benson, at best, is getting scraps until Connor gets hurt... which he probably will, he always does.  On top of that, he's playing with a QB who absolutely will vulture TD's.  I don't understand your inconsistency on this.  You think that Benson could be a RB1/2 while playing with Murray who will run and will steal rushing TD's, but you think that Hurts will run less and steal less Murray TD's from Barkley, yet he won't be a RB1 playing the whole year as the lead back.  Also, both Chubb and Brooks are coming off ACL's.  That virtually never goes well... on top of that, this is Chubb's second ACL tear.  You're looking to take guys like that in Round's 5 through 7?

No issues with the guys in R's 12-14... they're always shot's in the dark.  I wouldn't fault anyone from taking anybody in those rounds.

Middle Rb guy.  3 Wrs followed by 3 Rbs. After that no set strategy.

Murray actually doesn't get as many goal line Tds as you'd expect, despite being known as a "running Qb".  Over the past three years, he's had 14 runs inside the five yard line... scored 8. Hurts over the past three years has ran 49 times inside the five, scored 32. To be fair, Murray missed games during that span, but his goal line rate is nowhere near Hurts. It's kinda like Lamar Jackson... the running Qb, but surprisingly not the goal line Qb. So, yes... Barkley is gonna have to score from distance. I don't expect that from Benson/Conner.

I wouldn't draft Brooks that early. Zeke seems to typically go rounds 8 or 9 from mocks I've done. Brooks and Benson are usually there with him.

[GobbleDog 984]

38 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Last year, that would be RB19.  That's a mid RB2 that you're getting right now at mid to high RB3.

Wait a second... 191 carries for 753 yards and 6 TDs on the ground. 32 catches for 217 yards and a TD in the air.

75.3 + 36 + 32 + 21.7 + 6 = 171 

To avoid week 18 comparison when playoff bound-Rbs didn't even play..... 171 / 17 = 10.058 x 16 games = 160.94

Rb 31 weeks 1-17 ppr.  Pt/gm ranking 37th. 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/ppr-rb.php?year=2023&start=1&end=17

[weepaws 3,157]

In my 14 team non ppr, the Zeke might possibly be my rb4.  But I do like him more in ppr,  but I’m not so sure I would need on my 12 team ppr team.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,483]

17 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Middle Rb guy.  3 Wrs followed by 3 Rbs. After that no set strategy.

Murray actually doesn't get as many goal line Tds as you'd expect, despite being known as a "running Qb".  Over the past three years, he's had 14 runs inside the five yard line... scored 8. Hurts over the past three years has ran 49 times inside the five, scored 32. To be fair, Murray missed games during that span, but his goal line rate is nowhere near Hurts. It's kinda like Lamar Jackson... the running Qb, but surprisingly not the goal line Qb. So, yes... Barkley is gonna have to score from distance. I don't expect that from Benson/Conner.

I wouldn't draft Brooks that early. Zeke seems to typically go rounds 8 or 9 from mocks I've done. Brooks and Benson are usually there with him.

By top heavy, I meant that top half (or better), of the draft.  That's all.

Fair enough.  I just think that waiting for someone to get hurt is a significantly riskier move than a starting RB.

Yeah, I'd expect those two to be there... they should be.  One is coming off an ACL tear and the other is a backup who will only start (based on history), 4 games.  Very high risk.  I wouldn't take either of those two until like 11th or 12th rounds as my RB5 or something.