LIBERATION DAY: USA and China agree to a 90 day pause on most new tariffs

[The Real timschochet 6,539]

10 minutes ago, Beaker15 said:

I am willing to bet that we get deals worked out relatively quickly 

Let’s take a look at this assertion: 

https://www.newsweek.com/vietnam-offer-remove-tariff-trump-trade-peter-navarro-2056149

Vietnam offered to remove all tariffs. The White House rejected it. Trump says he wants an end to the “trade imbalance.” But Vietnam, being a country with nowhere near the economy of the USA, cannot possibly have even trade with the USA. So the demand makes no sense. 
 

Which means there can be no deal and in Trump’s mind this is not about reciprocal tariffs. Now he could change his mind, but unless he does there aren’t going to be these deals you’re talking about. The tariffs are here to stay. Trump doesn’t want a deal with Vietnam, he wants Americans to buy products made in America instead of those imported from Vietnam. 

[Horseman 2,404]

6 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Let’s take a look at this assertion: 

https://www.newsweek.com/vietnam-offer-remove-tariff-trump-trade-peter-navarro-2056149

Vietnam offered to remove all tariffs. The White House rejected it. Trump says he wants an end to the “trade imbalance.” But Vietnam, being a country with nowhere near the economy of the USA, cannot possibly have even trade with the USA. So the demand makes no sense. 
 

Which means there can be no deal and in Trump’s mind this is not about reciprocal tariffs. Now he could change his mind, but unless he does there aren’t going to be these deals you’re talking about. The tariffs are here to stay. Trump doesn’t want a deal with Vietnam, he wants Americans to buy products made in America instead of those imported from Vietnam. 

 Deep thoughts of the mentally ill.  

[The Real timschochet 6,539]

Just now, Horseman said:

 Deep thoughts of the mentally ill.  

I based that post on Trump’s statements on this subject made yesterday to reporters. What is the nature of your disagreement? 

[Beaker15 236]

6 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Let’s take a look at this assertion: 

https://www.newsweek.com/vietnam-offer-remove-tariff-trump-trade-peter-navarro-2056149

Vietnam offered to remove all tariffs. The White House rejected it. Trump says he wants an end to the “trade imbalance.” But Vietnam, being a country with nowhere near the economy of the USA, cannot possibly have even trade with the USA. So the demand makes no sense. 
 

Which means there can be no deal and in Trump’s mind this is not about reciprocal tariffs. Now he could change his mind, but unless he does there aren’t going to be these deals you’re talking about. The tariffs are here to stay. Trump doesn’t want a deal with Vietnam, he wants Americans to buy products made in America instead of those imported from Vietnam. 

If you truly believe tariffs are here to stay long term I advise you to liquidate all your stocks and short the market as we haven't sniffed the bottom.  I think that would be extremely unwise as this morning you can see how the market will react with any hint of tariff easing or reductions.  To think the tariffs will remain at 25% effective rate is crazy as Trump set them deliberately high as to be able to negotiate.

[The Real timschochet 6,539]

1 minute ago, Beaker15 said:

If you truly believe tariffs are here to stay long term I advise you to liquidate all your stocks and short the market as we haven't sniffed the bottom.  I think that would be extremely unwise as this morning you can see how the market will react with any hint of tariff easing or reductions.  To think the tariffs will remain at 25% effective rate is crazy as Trump set them deliberately high as to be able to negotiate.

Logically I agree with you. But again we have the fact that Vietnam’s offer to remove all tariffs was rejected, and we have the second fact that Trump says the tariffs are here to stay until all “trade imbalances” are removed. Those two facts indicate to me that Trump is being illogical. Again, perhaps he will change his mind. I hope he does. But I wouldn’t be willing to guarantee that, would you? 

[The Real timschochet 6,539]

4 minutes ago, Beaker15 said:

 To think the tariffs will remain at 25% effective rate is crazy as Trump set them deliberately high as to be able to negotiate.

And here is the rub: you and nearly everyone else I have read that have defended these tariffs, continue to assert that they are a means for the United States to negotiate better trade terms for ourselves. But Trump himself insists that they are an end to themselves designed to bring back manufacturing to America. And he has made this same argument for the past 40 years; it’s by far the most consistent issue he’s ever had. 
 

I hope you’re right. I suspect now that you aren’t. We’ll know relatively soon. 

[The Real timschochet 6,539]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2025/04/07/stocks-trump-trade-war/82968270007/
Trump warns China: if they don’t remove their new 34% tariff by April 9, we will impose am additional 50% tariff on China. 

[SaintsInDome2006 421]

3 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2025/04/07/stocks-trump-trade-war/82968270007/
Trump warns China: if they don’t remove their new 34% tariff by April 9, we will impose am additional 50% tariff on China. 

I like the part how China was a hermit kingdom, then the US spent 50 years dragging it into the global economy, and now we are warning we will become a hermit kingdom.

[The Real timschochet 6,539]

4 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I like the part how China was a hermit kingdom, then the US spent 50 years dragging it into the global economy, and now we are warning we will become a hermit kingdom.

Well anyhow I’m sure China will respond well to this threat right? Of course they’ll surrender…

[SaintsInDome2006 421]

LOL apparently the market eased up this morning after National Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett went on Fox this morning to float that Trump is considering a 90 day pause in the tariffs. My word, these people.

[squistion 1,982]

54 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2025/04/07/stocks-trump-trade-war/82968270007/
Trump warns China: if they don’t remove their new 34% tariff by April 9, we will impose am additional 50% tariff on China. 

Oh, yes. Raising it to 50% will definitely get China to remove their 34% tariff. 

[Hawkeye21 2,382]

8 minutes ago, squistion said:

Oh, yes. Raising it to 50% will definitely get China to remove their 34% tariff. 

China says that Trump is bullying them with these tariffs.  Sounds to me we have them right where we want them.  China has been screwing us for way too long.

[jbycho 631]

Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

China says that Trump is bullying them with these tariffs.  Sounds to me we have them right where we want them.  China has been screwing us for way too long.

Yep. 

[SaintsInDome2006 421]

How Much Would An iPhone Cost If Apple Were Forced To Make It In America?

How much would an iPhone cost if Apple were forced to make it in America?

In the $30,000 to $100,000 range… and no this is not a typo.

In fact, if Apple were forced to solely manufacture the iPhone in America, there is a good argument that it would not be able to manufacture any at all. And if they could somehow successfully make the manufacturing transition, capacity would likely be constrained to a just a few million units a year.

The issue here is not really about differences in the cost of labor. It is more about the supply chain and it is mostly about differences in the necessary skills required to manufacture hundreds of millions of iPhones at high-quality to satisfy current market demand.

As Apple CEO Tim Cook points out in a recent interview, the U.S. is sorely lacking in certain critical skills required in the manufacturing supply chain. One of these skills is precision tooling and specifically, tooling engineers.

 

Here is the transcript from the relevant section of this video:

There’s a confusion about China… the popular conception is that companies come to China because of low labor cost. I’m not sure what part of China they go to but the truth is, China stopped being the low labor cost country many years ago and that is not the reason to come to China from a supply point of view…

…the reason is because of the skill… and the quantity of skill in one location… and the type of skill it is. The products we do require really advanced tooling. And the precision that you have to have in tooling and working with the materials that we do are state-of-the-art. And the tooling skill is very deep here.

In the U.S. you could have a meeting of tooling engineers and I’m not sure we could fill the room. In China you could fill multiple football fields.

Tooling engineering is a highly skilled position that requires years of training and experience. It is an “analog” type skill that combines artisanal craftsmanship with precision engineering skills. And as Mr. Cook alludes to later in the talk, the Chinese have developed and scaled these skills over the last three decades while the U.S. and other countries have gone the other direction and de-emphasized them:

It’s that vocational expertise is very deep here [in China]. And I give the educational system a lot of credit for continuing to push on that even as others were de-emphasizing vocational. Now I think many countries in the world have woke up and said this is a key thing and we’ve got to correct that but China called that right from the beginning.

Relative scarcity of qualified precision tooling engineers is just one of many reasons why it would be hard to scale manufacturing of the iPhone in the U.S. Foxconn employs over one million workers on its payrolls even as the company makes a big push into automation. The consumer electronics supply chain migrated to Asia three to four decades ago and rapid procurement of components is critical to cost, time-to-market and ability to scale. Logistics and infrastructure are also key for a product that is shipped around the world — seven of the world’s ten largest ports are in China.

Tim Cook is the foremost expert on consumer electronics manufacturing [2]. Prior to becoming Apple’s CEO after Steve Jobs, he had spent his entire career in operations, including 25 years working closely with Chinese manufacturers. He was critical to Apple being able to eventually scale up and produce billions of the most highly engineered consumer devices in modern history. The guy knows what he is talking about.

Theory

Theoretically, if Apple were forced to manufacture only in the U.S. I certainly believe we have the capability to eventually re-build the technical skills required to do this. But it would take many years due to the nature of skills required. Vocational professions like precision tooling engineering require many years of training under a master-apprentice style system working in a live environment. There is a lot of “trial and error” involved in fine-tuning manufacturing equipment and assembly lines. There are few shortcuts around this; being smart or working extremely hard alone won’t get you there. Indeed, Tesla is facing some of these issues as it tries to mass-produce its Model 3s without sacrificing quality: CNBC: Tesla Model 3 production issues.

We are having a hard enough time convincing young people to choose computer science and now we would have to convince even more of them to get involved in a vocational profession — which will not be easy given the often pejorative connotation attached to the word (think “vocational school”). To really get this done right, we would probably need to re-design much of our public educational system to look more like Germany’s where students start moving down the vocational path during high school [3]. This is a pretty massive undertaking to say the least.

Even if we were to start today, it would take an entire generation to really scale this up. In the meantime, using the existing scarce resources (sub-optimally) my guess is that we could initially produce a few million units per year [4] and then slowly ramp that up as we get better with repetition, add more resources etc. over time.

And precision tooling is just one slice of the overall equation — we haven't even yet considered the other aspects of scaling such as building the component supply chain, improving our logistics infrastructure and finding hundreds of thousands of workers willing to work the assembly line (even with robots and automation).

So forcing Apple to manufacture only in the United States means that in a best case scenario you probably go from the ability to produce hundreds of millions of iPhones per year to producing single-digit millions per year at a much higher per-unit cost. This is a two order-of-magnitude difference. While the production costs would undoubtedly be significantly higher, Economics 101 tells me that the biggest driver in the price increase would be the supply curve shifting waaaaaaay to the left resulting in a massive increase in the equilibrium price.

In this theoretical world, where only 1% of the population could have an iPhone (and assume alternatives don't exist for now), the cost would skyrocket. Not only can the 1% afford to pay significantly more, the iPhone would turn into an ultra-luxury item and just look at the order-of-magnitude price difference between say a Birkin bag and a Coach handbag — price differences in the 30–100x range. In iPhone terms that would bring us to prices in the $30,000 to $100,000 range.

In other words, the price increase is driven almost entirely by artificially constrained supply in the face of overwhelming demand as opposed to rising per-unit production costs.

The idea of comparative advantages in Economics teaches us that just because we can do something, doesn't mean we should.

Reality

Of course in reality, Apple would be rendered completely non-competitive so trying to figure out the exact price in this scenario is a mostly meaningless exercise.

Its business model depends on having billions of active devices and hundreds of millions of active (and relatively affluent) users out there funneling money to the app developer eco-system. Without a large user base, the iOS ecosystem would quickly wither on the vine.

Apple’s scale provides significant negotiating leverage with its component suppliers. Reducing manufacturing production by 50 to 100x would give them less negotiating leverage than many handset manufacturers in China that nobody has ever heard of. Samsung Electronics would cackle with delight when it found out Apple was being forced to move manufacturing to the U.S.

Apple’s scale also allows it to amortize its product development and brand marketing budget across hundreds of million devices per year. Artificially constraining supply by two orders of magnitude would mean that the amortized portion of these fixed costs are going up tremendously.

Its foreign competitors, unconstrained by this artificial and sub-optimal manufacturing requirement, would fill in the void and soon devour the market turning iOS into a non-factor overnight. App developers would stop developing for iOS and just focus on Android. Apple’s future plans extending the iOS eco-system into new product categories would be squashed.

In effect, we would have successfully killed off the most valuable and arguably finest and most successful company in U.S. history — a company that is responsible for directly and indirectly creating hundreds of thousands of well-paying jobs in the United States and helping us lower our real trade deficit [5] by billions of dollars per year.

The irony is that after all of this, even $100,000 might be too low a price. Because after killing off Apple many years from now the only place you would be able to find an iPhone would be in a museum.

 

 

[squistion 1,982]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

China says that Trump is bullying them with these tariffs.  Sounds to me we have them right where we want them.  China has been screwing us for way too long.

Yeah, definitely right where we want them. 

I didn't think it was possible but this situation with the tariffs keeps getting worse. 

[Hawkeye21 2,382]

Just now, squistion said:

Yeah, definitely right where we want them. 

I didn't think it was possible but this situation with the tariffs keeps getting worse. 

Why?

[Mike Honcho 5,148]

Quote

 

As Apple CEO Tim Cook points out in a recent interview,..

the reason is because of the skill… and the quantity of skill in one location… and the type of skill it is.

 

Translation: We need kids with really tiny fingers to put these things together.

[squistion 1,982]

Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

Why?

Because virtually all leading economists say that tariffs don't work and the cost will be passed on to the American consumer.

It is like instead of putting on the brakes, Trump is accelerating to take the US economy over a cliff. 

[SaintsInDome2006 421]

Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

Why?

The creation of the modern Chinese economy is a US idea, we did it, we fought for it, we worked on it, and over decades Republican and Democratic administrations we opened up the Chinese market of 1 billion workers and consumers to our goods.

Here's the fun part: after all our work and effort and blood and treasure, China will remain open to other competitor markets, while we will be putting up trade barriers around us. It's like building a classic Camaro from scratch and then watching your enemy drive around with it with your girlfriend in the front seat. Fun, right? 

[SaintsInDome2006 421]

Trade your WR1 to me for Hunter Renfrow!

[pause]

Ok that does it, trade me Jefferson, Metcalf and Chase for Trey McBride, or that's it, I'm raising the price!

[Sean Mooney 1,950]

10 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

China says that Trump is bullying them with these tariffs.  Sounds to me we have them right where we want them.  China has been screwing us for way too long.

They want you to think this isn't a "who will blink first" scenario...

 

It is 100% a "who will blink first" scenario between two people who will forever try to tell you they never blink. 

[Hawkeye21 2,382]

I get the feeling that the people who hate this, are afraid of change and live in fear.  We can't continue doing what we've been doing as a country.

Unless someone can come up with a better plan.  Democrats can't manage to do that.

[The Psychic Observer 498]

Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

I get the feeling that the people who hate this, are afraid of change and live in fear.  We can't continue doing what we've been doing as a country.

Unless someone can come up with a better plan.  Democrats can't manage to do that.

Yes we can do better and there are surely better plans than global trade war.  Are you even listening to yourself?

[Hawkeye21 2,382]

Just now, The Psychic Observer said:

Yes we can do better and there are surely better plans than global trade war.  Are you even listening to yourself?

WHAT ARE THE BETTER PLANS?  Who is proposing them?  Who is implementing them?  How long do we just keep talking about doing something before we actually do something?

Our country never seems to accomplish much until crap hits the fan.  Maybe this can jumpstart us.

[The Psychic Observer 498]

Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

WHAT ARE THE BETTER PLANS?  Who is proposing them?  Who is implementing them?  How long do we just keep talking about doing something before we actually do something?

Our country never seems to accomplish much until crap hits the fan.  Maybe this can jumpstart us.

Let's start with what are we trying to accomplish.  Are you referring to our national debt?

[SaintsInDome2006 421]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Unless someone can come up with a better plan.  Democrats can't manage to do that.

Do you mind telling me what the figures for the (1) Dow Jones index, (2) unemployment rate, (3) interest rate, and (4) the price of oil were say 11/7/25?

[Hawkeye21 2,382]

1 minute ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Do you mind telling me what the figures for the (1) Dow Jones index, (2) unemployment rate, (3) interest rate, and (4) the price of oil were say 11/7/25?

The Dow Jones is still very high.  I don't know what the unemployment rate and interest rates are off the top of my head.  Oil prices are like $10 cheaper now.

[squistion 1,982]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I get the feeling that the people who hate this, are afraid of change and live in fear.  We can't continue doing what we've been doing as a country.

Unless someone can come up with a better plan.  Democrats can't manage to do that.

The fear is real for anyone familiar with history and the consequences of The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

A short summary:

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, signed into law in 1930, raised tariffs on thousands of imported goods to protect American businesses and farmers, but it ultimately worsened the Great Depression by sparking retaliatory tariffs from other nations and significantly reducing global trade.  

[Hawkeye21 2,382]

Just now, squistion said:

The fear is real for anyone familiar with history and the consequences of The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

A short summary:

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, signed into law in 1930, raised tariffs on thousands of imported goods to protect American businesses and farmers, but it ultimately worsened the Great Depression by sparking retaliatory tariffs from other nations and significantly reducing global trade.  

We're not in a great depression though.

[SaintsInDome2006 421]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

The Dow Jones is still very high.  I don't know what the unemployment rate and interest rates are off the top of my head.  Oil prices are like $10 cheaper now.

At 11/6/25

Stock Market 43,492 - someone help me on this, I'm too scared to look.

Annual Inflation 2.2% - The 1 year expected inflation rate has jumped to 4.3%
Unemployment 4.1% - Unemployment rate graph.

Oil futures.

[squistion 1,982]

Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

We're not in a great depression though.

The priniciple is the same.

I think JP Morgan said a few days ago, that the odds of a global recession are 60% (and probably higher now).

If that is the case the tariffs will only make any recession worse and not better. 

[jbycho 631]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

We're not in a great depression though.

The liberals are. They lost their $30 worth of 401k. 

[SaintsInDome2006 421]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

We're not in a great depression though.

If we're lucky we get out of this with a 2008 style recession with a Dem administration next.

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Oil prices are like $10 cheaper now.

I'll tell you why this matters. It means global buyers are anticipating an economic downturn.

[SaintsInDome2006 421]

Just now, jbycho said:

The liberals are. They lost their $30 worth of 401k. 

IIRC US market losses are at $6 trillion.

[MDC 7,174]

34 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I get the feeling that the people who hate this, are afraid of change and live in fear.  We can't continue doing what we've been doing as a country.

Unless someone can come up with a better plan.  Democrats can't manage to do that.

Might have helped if Trump hadn’t spent the last calendar year promising immediate lower prices and a booming stock market. Also might help if Trump himself could articulate an end goal, and if the across the board tariffs made any sense at all.

You’re a Grade A rube you think this is about boosting US manufacturing.

[purdygood 338]

3 minutes ago, MDC said:

Might have helped if Trump hadn’t spent the last calendar year promising immediate lower prices and a booming stock market. Also might help of Trump himself could articulate an end goal, and if the across the board tariffs made any sense at all.

You’re a Grade A rube you think this is about boosting US manufacturing.

He really wants to work in a sweat shop making Nike's for $12 a hour. Winning!

[Maximum Overkill 1,765]

19 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I'm too scared to look

Sissy  

[SaintsInDome2006 421]

4 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Sissy  

LOL, always an insult or some vulgarity, it's a trip.

Ok, I looked, here's NASDAQ as of Friday.

[Mike Honcho 5,148]

11 minutes ago, purdygood said:

He really wants to work in a sweat shop making Nike's for $12 a hour. Winning!

 

 

[CaptainObvious1 335]

53 minutes ago, squistion said:

Because virtually all leading economists say that tariffs don't work and the cost will be passed on to the American consumer.

It is like instead of putting on the brakes, Trump is accelerating to take the US economy over a cliff. 

Hope you already ordered your Chinese before the price goes up.