**2025 Masters Thread**

[Fumbleweed 516]

The Masters is now three weeks away and the field is rounding into form. For a few of us, it is just about our favorite sports weekend of the year. For most, probably not, but still a weekend of interest. Here are my initial top ten favorites for this year as has been done for several years now. List is subject to minor changes as the month of March deepens in golf. Should be a great tournament!

Top Ten:

1. Rory McIlroy-Won the Players with his B game. Never a better time to claim this with no one else playing elite golf.

2. Justin Thomas- 2025 has brought back moments of greatness. Here’s thinking those moments turn into four solid days. 

3. Corey Conners- Just plays effective golf every time out. I think his time to nearly win a major has come.

4. Joaquin Niemann- The one LIV player that seems to still play with fire in his belly.

5. Scottie Scheffler- Look for more frustration for Scottie…and a back door top five come Sunday afternoon. 

6. Patrick Cantlay- Played well at Sawgrass. I see a couple of top-ten finishes in majors for him this year. 

7. Brooks Koepka- Not sure if he’s hungry, but he does seem relatively healthy for a change. 

8.  Sepp Straka- Only Rory has looked better this season. Sepp is a legit contender. 

9. Jon Rahm- LIV’s best player should at least get a top ten finish in a major he’s won before.

10. Ludwig Aberg- Kind of all or nothing this year so far. I think that levels out at Augusta. 

 

Players outside of my top ten who still have a very legitimate shot at winning:  Bryson DeChambeau, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele 

Highly ranked players who are off to slow start in 2025, but could catch lightning in a bottle for a week: Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Jordan Spieth, Sagith Theegala, Cameron Young, Will Zalatoris

Young, exciting players with little Masters experience, but tons of game: Akshay Bhatia, Thomas Detry, Stephen Jaeger, Tom Kim, Min Woo Lee, Robert MacIntyre, Taylor Pendrith, Aaron Rai

Other LIV participants: Sergio Garcia, Tyrrell Hatton, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Patrick Reed, Cameron Smith, Bubba Watson

Solid, tested players...wouldn't be a shocker if they won:  Daniel Berger, Keegan Bradley, Sam Burns, Jason Day, Harris English, Matt Fitzpatrick, Lucas Glover, Brian Harman, Russell Henley, Tom Hoge, Billy Horschel, Justin Rose, Adam Scott,  J.J. Spaun

Guys who have a punchers chance, but would make for a somewhat shocking winner: Byeong Hun An, Christian Bezuidenhout, Brian Campbell, Rafael Campos, Laurie Canter, Cam Davis, Nick Dunlap, Nico Echavarria, Austin Eckroat, Max Greyserman, Joe Highsmith, Hojgaard Brothers, Chris Kirk, Patton Kizzire, Thirston Lawrence, Denny McCarthy, Matt McCarty, Maverick McNealy, Mattieau Pavon, J.T. Poston, Davis Riley, Adam Schenk, Nick Taylor, Davis Thompson, Jhonathan Vegas, Kevin Yu

Guys who have no real shot at winning from my perspective:  Angel Cabrera, Fred Couples, Zach Johnson, Bernhard Langer, J.M. Olazabal, Charl Schwartzel, Vijay Singh, Mike Weir, Danny Willett, All amateurs

[BiffTannen 866]

Solid write up, Fumble. 

 

I like it when you do these because it let's us know your draft strategy. 

[edjr 6,578]

3 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

Guys who have no real shot at winning from my perspective:  Angel Cabrera, Fred Couples, Zach Johnson, Bernhard Langer, J.M. Olazabal, Charl Schwartzel, Vijay Singh, Mike Weir, Danny Willett, All amateurs

with hot takes this scorching, you should have your own website. nostradumbass

[Alias Detective 1,388]

[cmh6476 1,009]

didn't you used to be our Joe Lunardi here before Joe Lunardi was a thing?

[jerryskids 6,546]

Always enjoy these, Fumble.   

[Fumbleweed 516]

5 hours ago, cmh6476 said:

didn't you used to be our Joe Lunardi here before Joe Lunardi was a thing?

I did. Surprised anybody remembers that.  

[Fumbleweed 516]

5 hours ago, edjr said:

with hot takes this scorching, you should have your own website. nostradumbass

Gotta list everyone in some sort of category. Thanks for being the ray of human sunshine that you are…

[Fumbleweed 516]

So, for those here who are golf enthusiasts, do you miss the Match Play event? It dawned on me this morning that this would have been the day that started for a number of years. 

[BiffTannen 866]

3 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

So, for those here who are golf enthusiasts, do you miss the Match Play event? It dawned on me this morning that this would have been the day that started for a number of years. 

YES!!! One of the best events on the calendar - gone. 

[edjr 6,578]

9 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

So, for those here who are golf enthusiasts, do you miss the Match Play event? It dawned on me this morning that this would have been the day that started for a number of years. 

The TGL playoffs were absolutely phenomenal. Billy Whoreshoes is now my favorite golfer. 

[BiffTannen 866]

18 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

So, for those here who are golf enthusiasts, do you miss the Match Play event? It dawned on me this morning that this would have been the day that started for a number of years. 

I will go a step further. I miss when it was the Accenture sponsored event and it was a bracket of 64. The pool play ruined it a bit. 

[listen2me 23 1,825]

I like match play.  And seems most golf fans miss it.  I am not one.  By the end you are watching with 4 players out there and its pretty slow day of viewing if you sit down and watch.  

I didnt hate the event.  But meh especially with the pod play.  

[BufordT 425]

22 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

So, for those here who are golf enthusiasts, do you miss the Match Play event? It dawned on me this morning that this would have been the day that started for a number of years. 

I could take or leave it.  By the time the field gets narrowed down to the last four, the entertainment value goes way down and it becomes tedious to watch on television due to the lack of live action.

[edjr 6,578]

3 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

I like match play.  And seems most golf fans miss it.  I am not one.  By the end you are watching with 4 players out there and its pretty slow day of viewing if you sit down and watch.  

I didnt hate the event.  But meh especially with the pod play.  

They need to do a match play event - PGA vs LIV

[listen2me 23 1,825]

I will wait on odds to shift before betting.  Dont love a ton of guys down the board.

I do like Dechambeau 18 to 1.  F if I know the form of the LIV guys.  He has been bad here overall but 6th last year.  Then 2nd in the PGA and win in thr US Open.  Seems like hes gearing his whole season to show off for majors.  When hes on, his ceiling is as high as anyones really.  He has said he really wants a Masters win and loves Augusta.  

[BiffTannen 866]

Jim Nance has stated the 2036 Masters will be his last 

[edjr 6,578]

27 minutes ago, BiffTannen said:

Jim Nance has stated the 2036 Masters will be his last 

I doubt I will live that long

[Fumbleweed 516]

Less than 24 hours away... 

Tee times:

Starting Times and Groupings | The Masters

[WhiteWonder 2,674]

If you didn't have them listed as "other LIV participants", where would you place those guys in terms of their actual chances?

maybe biased because I drafted him but it's hard for me to rate Cam Smith much differently than Bryson at Augusta. Bryson has the better recent results in other majors, Cam has the better overall masters results in his career. Neither has been spectacular on LIV.

I'd put Reed and Hatton in the "lightning in a bottle" category.  Sergio might belong there too but hes actually been playing pretty well. I'd still likely slot him in solid/tested category.

DJ maybe punchers chance  and Bubba no chance.

[Fumbleweed 516]

3 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

If you didn't have them listed as "other LIV participants", where would you place those guys in terms of their actual chances?

maybe biased because I drafted him but it's hard for me to rate Cam Smith much differently than Bryson at Augusta. Bryson has the better results in other majors, Cam has the better overall masters results in his career. Neither has been spectacular on LIV.

I'd put Reed and Hatton in the "lightning in a bottle" category.  Sergio might belong there too but hes actually been playing pretty well. I'd still likely slot him in solid/tested category.

DJ maybe punchers chance  and Bubba no chance.

Is there anything harder right now than trying to figure out how much shot each of the LIV guys has? They don't play enough. They don't play for much in terms of stakes. 

I think your assessments here are pretty solid. 

[WhiteWonder 2,674]

7 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

Is there anything harder right now than trying to figure out how much shot each of the LIV guys has? They don't play enough. They don't play for much in terms of stakes. 

I think your assessments here are pretty solid. 

I forgot Phil... probably with Segio in punchers chance. Playing better golf this year and its Augusta.. win? I mean i'd say absolutely not if it wasn't for his t2 here two years ago.

The LIV golfers have played 5 events this year (excluding any events some have played on other tours)... Xander has played 4 because of injury... a lot of other PGA guys are in the 7-8 range. Okay, I get it, the LIV guys events are 3 rounds.  I don't think it's as big of an impact as you do.  I think the bigger issue is that they don't use shot link and other data gathering that the PGA uses so unless you are watching each week, it's a bit harder to determine their actual form.

[listen2me 23 1,825]

43 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

If you didn't have them listed as "other LIV participants", where would you place those guys in terms of their actual chances?

maybe biased because I drafted him but it's hard for me to rate Cam Smith much differently than Bryson at Augusta. Bryson has the better recent results in other majors, Cam has the better overall masters results in his career. Neither has been spectacular on LIV.

I'd put Reed and Hatton in the "lightning in a bottle" category.  Sergio might belong there too but hes actually been playing pretty well. I'd still likely slot him in solid/tested category.

DJ maybe punchers chance  and Bubba no chance.

I can sort of agree on Cam and Dechambeau.  Im a big Cam fan or at least sorta was.  I like golfers who are unique in skillset and can win a different way.  I think people are just afraid that Cam plays such a fine line.  Not only is he not accurate off the tee but he lacks distance.  Thats usually insurmountable for a top guy.   He has to be elite time in and time out with the putter and chipper in order to have a chance.   Which much of the time he has been.  Its like how guys tend to back pure ball strikers over the guys who putt well most any week.  Not to say Dechambeau stripes it.  But if his driver is fairly accurate then its just such an advantage.  Traditionally I didnt think Dechambeau was a bad chipper or putter.  But guess hes been struggling with those.  I tend to remember that awesome bunker shot to beat Rory last year.  Just an incredible shot.  Dechambeau is a weird one.  He may be getting overrated based on how he played thr majors last year.  But he just has a gear.  It will be interesting to see if his Masters last year was an outlier ot if he will start to play better here.    

But id agree here at the Masters they should be about even.  I think Cam has played worse than Dechambeau lately but cant be sure.  I know last year his form was questioned and he came into Augusta and played well.  

[listen2me 23 1,825]

Im going to put these here instead of thr wagering thread.  Have props to add tonight.  Told myself not to chase nunbers betting a handful of longer shots.  I believe an elite player will win this week.  Schef or Rory mostly.  But here I am.  Quitting at 3 outrights and doing many more props than a usual event.  

Zal 65 to 1

Bob Mac 65 to 1

Reed 100 to 1

[listen2me 23 1,825]

Im probably off on Zal.  He was 65 to 1 all week.  Expecting his number to shrink and just doesnt.   The man has 3 top 10s here out of 4 tries.  The other being a WD.   Yet a guy like Hatton was sitting 20 points less all week?   Zal might just be that guy who has a ton of good finishes but rarely wins.  Not sure.  Still thats no different than many guys who have lower odds.  But hes competitive a lot and his irons are up there with the elites.    

[WhiteWonder 2,674]

2 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

I can sort of agree on Cam and Dechambeau.  Im a big Cam fan or at least sorta was.  I like golfers who are unique in skillset and can win a different way.  I think people are just afraid that Cam plays such a fine line.  Not only is he not accurate off the tee but he lacks distance.  Thats usually insurmountable for a top guy.   He has to be elite time in and time out with the putter and chipper in order to have a chance.   Which much of the time he has been.  Its like how guys tend to back pure ball strikers over the guys who putt well most any week.  Not to say Dechambeau stripes it.  But if his driver is fairly accurate then its just such an advantage.  Traditionally I didnt think Dechambeau was a bad chipper or putter.  But guess hes been struggling with those.  I tend to remember that awesome bunker shot to beat Rory last year.  Just an incredible shot.  Dechambeau is a weird one.  He may be getting overrated based on how he played thr majors last year.  But he just has a gear.  It will be interesting to see if his Masters last year was an outlier ot if he will start to play better here.    

But id agree here at the Masters they should be about even.  I think Cam has played worse than Dechambeau lately but cant be sure.  I know last year his form was questioned and he came into Augusta and played well.  

The same can be said of Morikawa (as far as accuracy and length off the tee) as Cam. Most people would consider Cam to have a superior short game and far superior putter. 

I prefer Bryson to Cam, if drafting for this event... because I think Bryson cares more. He is the top LIV guy, imo, when it comes to majors including big game Brooks and Niemann who I like but has not done much in majors but everyone is high on him.

Still, I think driving distance is a little bit overblown at Augusta. You don't want to be short like Zach Johnson but saying Cam or Morikawa or whoever lacks distance ... when they average 290ish off the tee.. it's nit picking a bit. Someone like Aberg averages 307. I don't see it as a big hindrance.  To me, Augusta is a second shot course more than anything else. You can put an 8 iron in the hands of an elite ball striker and thats just as good as Bryson having a wedge, imo.  Next important thing to me is short game / pitching and chipping. 

Putting is another thing that I think gets too much emphasis at Augusta. I think the greens are so difficult that it takes a bit of the advantage away from the elite putters. I feel like we have seen a lot of average or below average putters win the Masters. Adam Scott comes to mind. Sergio for sure. 

[listen2me 23 1,825]

13 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

The same can be said of Morikawa (as far as accuracy and length off the tee) as Cam. Most people would consider Cam to have a superior short game and far superior putter. 

I prefer Bryson to Cam, if drafting for this event... because I think Bryson cares more. He is the top LIV guy, imo, when it comes to majors including big game Brooks and Niemann who I like but has not done much in majors but everyone is high on him.

Still, I think driving distance is a little bit overblown at Augusta. You don't want to be short like Zach Johnson but saying Cam or Morikawa or whoever lacks distance ... when they average 290ish off the tee.. it's nit picking a bit. Someone like Aberg averages 307. I don't see it as a big hindrance.  To me, Augusta is a second shot course more than anything else. You can put an 8 iron in the hands of an elite ball striker and thats just as good as Bryson having a wedge, imo.  Next important thing to me is short game / pitching and chipping. 

Putting is another thing that I think gets too much emphasis at Augusta. I think the greens are so difficult that it takes a bit of the advantage away from the elite putters. I feel like we have seen a lot of average or below average putters win the Masters. Adam Scott comes to mind. Sergio for sure. 

Morikawa is like top 5 in driving accuracy.   

I know traditionally hes struggled on and around the greens at times.  But hes 20th in scrambling and 5th in putting average.  Hes had those corrected for a bit now.  

Then there is just approach play which is the one best/more important/correlated stat with competing and he has that in spades.  

Morikawa is a fairly complete player.  

Putting is usually said to be whatever at Augusta.  Bad putters can putt well here.  See Sergio, Bubba, Phil to an extent, Schef to an extent.  Its more so avoiding 3 putts.  Making your 6 footers to get up and down to save pars.  

[WhiteWonder 2,674]

6 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Morikawa is like top 5 in driving accuracy.   

I know traditionally hes struggled on and around the greens at times.  But hes 20th in scrambling and 5th in putting average.  Hes had those corrected for a bit now.  

Then there is just approach play which is the one best/more important/correlated stat with competing and he has that in spades.  

Morikawa is a fairly complete player.  

Putting is usually said to be whatever at Augusta.  Bad putters can putt well here.  See Sergio, Bubba, Phil to an extent, Schef to an extent.  Its more so avoiding 3 putts.  Making your 6 footers to get up and down to save pars.  

Yes, agreed on putting, as I had mentioned. I don't view Morikawa as having a bad short game or still having putting issues. I wouldn't have drafted him if that were the case. I just view Cam as better in those areas was all I meant. 

And yes, Augusta being a second shot course with an emphasis on approach is why I personally targeted guys like Morikawa, Zalatoris and JJ Spaun in the edex draft.

It's the reason why a common formula for picking a longer shot to bet on (not super long but lets say better than 35-1) is to find an elite ball striker who is at least passable off the tee and around the green and just needs to catch a hot week with the putter....  the Corey Conners theory if you will. 

[Fumbleweed 516]

I can see what you're saying about the reps for LIV guys being sufficient, but several just seem to have lost the fire/competitive edge. Dustin Johnson obviously comes to mind, but there are others including Cam certainly. The way Niemann tees it up on other tours and such, I think he's still driven. 

[listen2me 23 1,825]

3 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

I can see what you're saying about the reps for LIV guys being sufficient, but several just seem to have lost the fire/competitive edge. Dustin Johnson obviously comes to mind, but there are others including Cam certainly. The way Niemann tees it up on other tours and such, I think he's still driven. 

Yea his career is just off and running.  He will be in it.  But funny hoe Phil calls him best in thr world and hes so good.  Hes definitely a good youngish player.  But his results in majors are as pedestrian as it gets.  Phil put a ton of pressure on the kid.  Interested to see how he performs.  

[WhiteWonder 2,674]

42 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

I can see what you're saying about the reps for LIV guys being sufficient, but several just seem to have lost the fire/competitive edge. Dustin Johnson obviously comes to mind, but there are others including Cam certainly. The way Niemann tees it up on other tours and such, I think he's still driven. 

The PGA didn't care when the biggest names it lost to LIV were Phil and Dustin.   It really started to worry with the likes of Cam, Rahm, Brooks, Bryson and Niemann. Niemann is a rising star, for sure. Lot of people high on him this major season and he has played other events to try and earn world ranking points, similar to Reed and some others. I guess I just find it interesting that a lot of people are so high on him but write off the rest of the LIV group so easily. Mostly because I don't write them off. The older guys, sure.

[listen2me 23 1,825]

1 minute ago, WhiteWonder said:

The PGA didn't care when the biggest names it lost to LIV were Phil and Dustin.   It really started to worry with the likes of Cam, Rahm, Brooks, Bryson and Niemann. Niemann is a rising star, for sure. Lot of people high on him this major season and he has played other events to try and earn world ranking points, similar to Reed and some others. I guess I just find it interesting that a lot of people are so high on him but write off the rest of the LIV group so easily. Mostly because I don't write them off. The older guys, sure.

Im the opposite.  Great value in a guy like Reed each major especially this one.  Perhaps more in DFS realm.  But top finish bets as well.  

Niemann im actually down on.  Hes great hes awesome.  Well show me something in a mjaor just once.  At all.  I dont doubt hes a bright young talent.  But let me see something just once at least before I care.  Guys like Zal have a bunch of good finishes in majors.  Niem does not.   Hell Corey Conners has done waaaaay more in majors than Niem.    

[Fumbleweed 516]

Well, as usual, I was so-so in projecting what would happen at the Masters. Picked the winner correctly, but seeing as that was the #2 player in the world, that's nothing to write home about. Conners turned out to be a solid pick also, but I have got to stop trusting Justin Thomas at majors. His major record outside of the two PGA wins simply isn't that good. Apologies, finally, for putting Zach Johnson in the "no chance" category. He proved a lot this weekend. Not as much as Rose did, but quite a bit.