If he doesn't need a good Oline, why is it then when I bring up his poor games (less than 3 yards per carry), last year in college, I hear, "well Penn State's Oline was bad"? I get it he has a lot of promise, but better than Bell, Gurley, Hunt, and Kamara? That's a tall order.
And Arizona lost Shipley, their veteran center this past week. Out for he year. He was described as the leader of that Oline. I think they have to start a rookie unless they go out and get another player. I have Johnson as a keeper and that bums me out a little, but I have seen Johnson do without a good Oline.in the past.
It's all about opportunity. In NY, no one is going to take carries away from Barkley. Yeah, they have "guys" there, but they're only going to get a handful of touches a game. I expect Barkley to get about 16-18 carries, per game (which should put him in the top 5. I also think they're going to use him in the passing game a lot. I think he's going to have a season similar to David Johnson. Yes, the Giants do have more options in the passing game than Arizona, but I don't think Sheppard is going to command as many targets and I don't think Engram is going to get anywhere close to what he did last year. After all, Beckham did miss most of the season.
In Arizona, there's only Fitz and Johnson. That's it. No one else is going to "command" targets. They'll get both of them the ball. Regardless of who their Center is in Arizona, Johnson will get virtually all of the carries and probably 6-10 receiving opportunities per game.
I don't think the Chiefs are going to give Hunt 325 touches again this year. If Ware is healthy, he's definitely going to cut into Hunt's workload. They may have a similar game plan that the Saints had last year. Now, you may say, "Yeah, well Kamara finished as the #3 RB last year." True, but 2 things are important in that ranking... 1) David Johnson missed the whole year and Elliott missed 6 games. 2) The Saints have Drew Brees & Michael Thomas. Also when it comes to "opportunity", as I mentioned earlier, other than Ware, the Chiefs have Kelce, Hill, and Wilson who Ried is going to get involved. That's a lot of mouths to feed.
In another post a while back, I posted something on Bell's "fantasy efficiency". Basically, over the last 3 years, he's getting less points per touch each year. He's coming off a year with over 400 touches. The last time he came close to that (373 in 2014), he averaged 1 point per touch (almost... he had 370.5 points [0.993])... the following year, he got hurt. Last year, with his 406 touches, he avearged 0.85 points per touch which is a drop of 15.4%. I also think that the Steelers are going to spread the ball around more, so I don't think Bell will get the touches. Of course, you could point to the fact that with less touches he was more efficient, but remember, he got hurt the year after he had the biggest number of touches. Do I factor in injuries? Not really. But I do take into account history. Bell has over 1500 touches as an RB, so while he is young (only 26), he's still more likely to get hurt than others. He also did get hurt in 2015. So, there is that.
Last year, Gurley had 2100 total yards and 19 TD's last year. I don't think he does that again. I'm thinking 1800 yards and 14 TD's is more likely to happen this year. That's a reduction of 60 points right there. I'm also thinking another 10-15 less receptions. Let's call it 12 (split the difference), and now we're at 72 points. You drop him 72 points from last years group, that puts him at #3. Also, since last season, the Rams gave Gurley a 4-year extension. I don't think they're objective is to run him into the ground.
I think Kamara will be more involved in games this year than in years past, but I think it'll be more in the running game at the expense of the passing game. I don't think 80 and 800 is going to happen again and I also don't think 6.1 yards per rush is sustainable.
Seems like we're in agreement on Elliott since neither of us are including him in this topic.