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Franknbeans

Broncos trade away #22 to San Fran for

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Also, this trade blocks Denver from moving up and taking Vernon Davis away from the 49ers.

 

 

This means Defense with the #6 pick; and offense with the #22 pick.

so - NO VERNON DAVIS at #6

 

 

Ahh but what if they trade a bunch of picks along with lelie for the #5 slot and Javon walker.... Then they would beable to beat them to Vernon davis??

 

In all honesty this is extreemly unlikely, but the broncos do have a tendancy to do crazy things on draft day.... Mo Clarrett (enough said)

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Why? This draft is deep with defensive talent. I'd grab Davis at 6 and the best LB or S/CB available at #22. :banana:

 

 

Take Huff, then Moss/Holmes/Jackson at #22 --> then grab a TE in the later rounds.

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Take Huff, then Moss/Holmes/Jackson at #22 --> then grab a TE in the later rounds.

 

I'd rather have Davis over any of those WR's. I'd still do it the other way around with Davis first, and the best available 'back 7' defensive player at pick 22.

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In all honesty this is extreemly unlikely, but the broncos do have a tendancy to do crazy things on draft day.... Mo Clarrett (enough said)

 

Clarett was a case where the Broncos' running back coach knew him very well before the coach joined the Broncos, I believe. As such, I'm not sure that pick is a good example.

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On a lighter note, this is the first reported case of anyone in San Francisco being interested in bush.
:cry:

 

But I have to ask ~~

 

Ok am I the only one that took this politically rather than sexually??

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It seems to me that ONE of these teams (if not both) are planning on moving around a bit. If not, they would have waited until draft day, then SF could trade up to get #22 if their guy was there or Denver could hold onto it if their guy was there (for Denver, one of the WRs, for SF, maybe one of the RBs). It seems to me that one of these teams is working on a way to move up and they're trying to get this figured out so they have the bullets loaded and ready to fire on draft day (or before).

 

My guess, as of now:

 

--SF might want their pick of the late first RBs (Lendale, Maroney, etc.) and they figure that someone they'll want will be there.

--Denver will get their WR at #15 and a RB later, so #22 was just a way to get more ammo to move more (although, if that's the case, I might rather have the extra #1 to move). Ok, so maybe my guess is that they'll get the guy they want at #15 and they figure they'd rather save money on Addai or Drew or whoever in 2/3 and get 2 players, rather than paying more for the same quality player.

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On a lighter note, this is the first reported case of anyone in San Francisco being interested in bush.

 

:lol: - This could be awarded the funniest comment of the year :thumbsdown:

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Thank you, thank you. I'll be here all the week.

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Looks like Napoleon, I mean Shanahan, wants to see if he can further add another late pick running back to his credentials. I'm a Broncos fanatic and this trade makes no sense to me, unless they are going after Walker.

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Looks like Napoleon, I mean Shanahan, wants to see if he can further add another late pick running back to his credentials. I'm a Broncos fanatic and this trade makes no sense to me, unless they are going after Walker.

Given that there are about 35 players being given first round grades, and that someone always jumps in with a ringer, Denver is almost assured of 1st round talent with that 2nd round pick. If they are enamored of a player, that has a low 1st round grade, Davin Joseph comes to my mind, this makes a lot of sense.

 

J

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Lelie and a 3rd for JW. Think it helps both parties. Get rid of WR's who want out. Denver gets the WR with more upside and GB gets another very average WR and a pick. Both GM's can say they got the better of the deal. :first:

 

I completely agree with this. A player with a major knee injury doesn't warrant any higher than a 3rd...TD is evidence he may never come back. It's a big risk on Denver's part. I think it will be Lelie and a 3rd also, probably 49ers' 3rd. Green Bay will have absolutely nothing at receiver if they just give away a pick...at least lelie adds some depth, and he gets his chance to be a #1...jibes with this article in the Denver Post.

 

I think SF keeps that pick...2 first rounders for them is huge. A good deal all around, maybe a little risky on Denver's part if they do try getting Walker...but then, Lelie took a big step backwards last year and I think Denver is done with him.

 

I do think Denver still goes for a RB in the 1st (Dayne and Bell won't cut it, they need a playmaker)...White may be a little high at 15 now, but Williams isn't as much of a stretch there. Then they go D line in the second. If they do trade for Walker, that gives them a potential #1 WR, a #1 RB, and depth on the D line.

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:first:

 

But I have to ask ~~

 

Ok am I the only one that took this politically rather than sexually??

It was a close shave, but you made it.

 

J

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A lot of talk about the 9ers end of this deal. What does this deal allow Denver to do at #15, and the other 6 picks in the first 4 rounds?

 

I think the point of this deal is to go with Chad Jackson at #15 like I've seen in so many mock drafts thus far, and do the normal Denver thing and find... maybe Addai at #37 that they traded down to. I don't know too much about that next level of RBs starting with Addai, but I'm sure Denver has something planned thats going to have one of them wearing a Broncos' uni this year.

 

But on the other hand... maybe they finally go for a top 1st round RB this year. Kubiak is gone. Will they still have the same zone blocking scheme to make it easier for thier RB? If not, maybe they need top talent?

 

Any other thoughts?

 

Has Indy shown any interest in Addai? I think Indy will take him if he's available because he fits the system perfectly by being a good pass blocker and can catch the ball out of the backfield.

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:ninja:

 

But I have to ask ~~

 

Ok am I the only one that took this politically rather than sexually??

 

 

I find this a rather waxing question. Oops, I meant vexing. :P

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A few opines:

 

Walker is not worth a 1st or (2nd + 3rd). Coming off an injury and a malcontent. He may even be released outright if no one bites in a deal. There is no rush to get him as his price will drop as the season approaches. GB is not in a strong position here.

 

Good deal for SF and bad for denver imo.

 

Dont see the niners going after bush with Barlow and Gore in the fold. davis and best defensive player available makes sense. Any word on whether they like Pope? They may reverse the above and go defense + pope with the picks.

 

 

 

good one tj

 

:wub:

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I know it's been mentioned, but this trade followed the old value chart to an exact number. But this year is a little different. Well, every year is a little different. That chart is a guide, nothing more. This year the value of 37 and 68 are higher than normal, while 22 is just about normal. Why? Because of the depth of round one grades and so on that have been mentioned several times. At 37 Denver gets a virtual first round value this year. That third rounder is worth a typical late second (better, imo, this is one deep draft). This is the second deal Denver has made very much to their advantage.

 

If they want Walker and get him for Lelie and a pittance, well, that's up to them. They have the bargaining chips for sure, and GB is in a bad spot.

 

Normally a picks trade this early has nothing to do with targeting players. Those happen on draft day as things are unfolding and someone is falling and some team is coveting. But I don't think that's the case here. I think SF only does this deal because they are targeting a specific player (two actually).

 

After the Senior Bowl it was clear they loved DeAngelo Williams. There was talk of them taking him with #6. Now he's possibly available with 22. If he is, he's a 9er, I practically guarantee it. You weren't paying attention if you think otherwise. Still with the Pats and a couple other teams in the way, who also may take a back, the 9ers had another player really jump out at them-- Chad Greenway. They had him in very early, and there was an article discussing the possibility of them moving down some to get him. At that time Greenway was perceived as a 12-15 pick. Now, he's disappointed a little in the testing and he's probably going to be there.

 

I think it's naive to think SF is focussing on O or D at specific spots. They have needs across the board. They need the BPAs and they know two guys they really like might fall to this pick.

 

So, Denver gets the better end of the deal if they draft well. The 9ers have positioned themselves to get a player they really wanted and didn't think would be possible.

 

A nice deal for both teams, better for Denver all things being equal.

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Denver may not have been willing to give up the 22 for Walker...but will now offer a few of their other picks...to try and get him. also saves them from having to sign Walker to a new deal that he will want...plus 2 1st round draft picks.

 

From what I read somewhere, I don't remember. GB wanted SF's 2nd rd pick for Walker and SF wasn't interested in giving it up for him. So if GB is looking for an early 2nd, this could be why Denver made this trade. With Lelie wanting out of Denver, I could see Lelie and the 2nd rd pick they aquired for Walker trade. It would be sweet if they ended up with D. Williams at 15 and trade 37 for Walker. They have 7 picks in the first four rounds so they would have 5 picks in rounds 2-4 to add OL and DL depth.

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I know it's been mentioned, but this trade followed the old value chart to an exact number. But this year is a little different. Well, every year is a little different. That chart is a guide, nothing more. This year the value of 37 and 68 are higher than normal, while 22 is just about normal. Why? Because of the depth of round one grades and so on that have been mentioned several times. At 37 Denver gets a virtual first round value this year. That third rounder is worth a typical late second (better, imo, this is one deep draft). This is the second deal Denver has made very much to their advantage.

 

If they want Walker and get him for Lelie and a pittance, well, that's up to them. They have the bargaining chips for sure, and GB is in a bad spot.

 

Normally a picks trade this early has nothing to do with targeting players. Those happen on draft day as things are unfolding and someone is falling and some team is coveting. But I don't think that's the case here. I think SF only does this deal because they are targeting a specific player (two actually).

 

After the Senior Bowl it was clear they loved DeAngelo Williams. There was talk of them taking him with #6. Now he's possibly available with 22. If he is, he's a 9er, I practically guarantee it. You weren't paying attention if you think otherwise. Still with the Pats and a couple other teams in the way, who also may take a back, the 9ers had another player really jump out at them-- Chad Greenway. They had him in very early, and there was an article discussing the possibility of them moving down some to get him. At that time Greenway was perceived as a 12-15 pick. Now, he's disappointed a little in the testing and he's probably going to be there.

 

I think it's naive to think SF is focussing on O or D at specific spots. They have needs across the board. They need the BPAs and they know two guys they really like might fall to this pick.

 

So, Denver gets the better end of the deal if they draft well. The 9ers have positioned themselves to get a player they really wanted and didn't think would be possible.

 

A nice deal for both teams, better for Denver all things being equal.

 

I fail to see how you can say this with a straight face.

 

Denver moved down from 22 to 37 and got a 3rd rounder as compensation.

 

You cannot tell me that they will get the same caliber player at 37 than at 22. If they were the same caliber, they'd be draftd higher.

 

Is there talent still there? Could some lower picks have "1st round value"? Perhaps, yes - but all your talk about targeting specific players rings hollow in consideration that the draft has yet to unfold, and no one, not you or the Niners, know who will be there at 22.

 

Of course they go best player available - but to say they're targeting two players? Seems unlikely. I also doubt they take a RB with an early pick after selecting Gore with a 3rd last year, given the needs of the team everywhere else.

 

Time will tell, but you said yourself that moves for a specific player are usually made on draft day - yet then you go on to say the Niners did this deal to get a specific player. That's a bit inconsistent.

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Yes, Pat and the other dude just compared draft values for the positions and it seems the Niners are making out a little.

 

Apparantly it was exact value according to this

 

22=780

 

37=530

68=250

 

It's simple, scooter. Look at the chart. It's been around for awhile. Teams have confessed they refer to it. Jimmy Johnson exploited it like no other and bragged about it after retiring with a couple rings

 

This trade, based on the chart was 780 to 780. A perfect swap for both teams. But the chart is only a guide. In a shallow draft the early picks become more valuable. In a deep draft the later picks get adjusted up in value. This is a deep draft. 37 is worth a typical 27-30; 68 is worth a typical 45-55. There's certainly 5-10 guys falling out of this first with no brainer first round grades. Denver gets one.

 

A good example is NFL Draft Scout, run by Rang, and supported by scouts (mostly retired now, but real NFL scouts). They typically have between 25 and 35 players with first round grades. This year there's 44. Impressive class. I think they're a little stingy with a half dozen more first round grades. This class is just too deep.

 

There's another problem with this trade for SF. The worst place to be in this draft, according to Jerry Jones via Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick (if you want to argue), is right where they (Dallas and NE) are... between about 15 and 25. SF jumped into that area and paid to do so. That's the tough spot because it's the top of a long deep tier of similar talent. Chris Landry, a very respectable working scout, said you can find similar talent at 40 as you can at 20 this year. There's 10-15 upper 1st round grades, depending on how tough you grade. There's 30 more with solid mid to late first round grades. I personally think there's a full extra round of first rounders this year.

 

Anyway, that's why I think SF isn't just moving up for moving up's sake. It's a bad deal in that regard and from a simple value and strategy perspective. I like Nolan and McCloughan a lot. Man, it's bizarre to be pulling for your Niners, but I am. I like underdogs, I like the new crew, I like how they do business. I hope they get a long leash and return that team to serious contention. Heck, I like Norv. These are all shrewd people.

 

So, it stands to reason there's more to this than the pick value chart that says bad deal. I think it's targeting specific players. I cannot think of another reason to move up to the top of a deep tier with such a needy team. Can you? You can argue with my premise (deep draft, top of tier lesser value), but your arguing with just about everyone who follows the draft closely if you do.

 

You said, "You cannot tell me that they will get the same caliber player at 37 than at 22." Sure I can. It happens every year in one form or another. But that isn't what I'm saying anyway. I'm saying Denver's two have more value than SF's one based on the nature of this draft and trusting the old value chart that was followed to a "T" on this deal.

 

Certainly, I could be wrong about who SF targets. Certainly Denver could botch their picks or work that trade with GB. But SF targeting specific players makes more sense to me than SF making this deal based on generic BPA reasons.

 

I singled out DWilliams and CGreenway. I'm oddly confident about that. Pick any player you want projected from 15-25 in this draft and I will provide you with examples of why this was a bad trade. Offer up Ernie Sims, I give you Jon Alston in the 3rd. Of course Sims (a big hitting very fast cover two LB) looks better, but it's freaky that almost 60 picks later is the player most similar to him in this draft; a player Pete Carroll calls the best college linebacker he's ever faced; a big hitting very fast cover two LB.

 

Here's one example of Nolan singling out DeAngelo. It seems innocent enough, but it's rare when Senior Bowl coaches name a player like this without mentioning anyone else. They also showed serious interest in Greenway a week or so later. At the time both Williams and Greenway were projected much higher than they currently are. Williams was originally one of the top 10 talents in this draft. He's still almost that high on several "overall" charts. His stock dropped because a few teams expected to take an RB filled the need with FA signings. That's it. So now SF can have a real shot at a near top ten talent with pick 22. I think it's a sensible target. If he falls that far, he is BPA in my book. And I won't be surprised if Greenway is the backup plan, though Lawson has as much Niner love from what I hear.

 

I'm willing to bet if Williams is available at 22, they take him. You can have the other 200+ players in this bet. I'll take DW. So will SF. I don't do sig bets, but we can work out a wager if you want. How about the winner gets the loser's 15th rounder in Goid? :shocking:

 

If DWill is gone, no bet. I could be wrong. I think the odds suggest this is a good bet for you. There's a good chance he'll be gone, so no risk there. There's a good chance I'm full of crap, and you win the bet. And the risk is some meaningless IDP. :thumbsup:

 

I know Nolan has said he was content with his RBs (during the Ricky rumor). I still believe they take DW at 22 if he's available. As I said in support of Davis to SF, this team needs big time playmakers, BPAs regardless of position. It's naive to look too hard at team needs like the many comments in this thread.

 

Belichick this morning; for all you bent out of shape about team needs:

 

“…I go back to when I was with the Giants and we had [linebackers] Lawrence Taylor and Brad Van Pelt, and took [linebacker] Carl Banks. Nobody liked that pick. ‘That was a pretty stupid pick, why would you take Banks when you have Van Pelt and Taylor?’ It turned out to be probably one of the best picks with the Giants. I think you have to take guys that you think are good football players. Putting the team together, that’s certainly a process you have to go through. You can’t try to manufacture someone -- ‘we need this position’ -- and take a guy. If he isn’t able to do the job, then you still need that position.”

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It's simple, scooter. Look at the chart. It's been around for awhile. Teams have confessed they refer to it. Jimmy Johnson exploited it like no other and bragged about it after retiring with a couple rings

 

This trade, based on the chart was 780 to 780. A perfect swap for both teams. But the chart is only a guide. In a shallow draft the early picks become more valuable. In a deep draft the later picks get adjusted up in value. This is a deep draft. 37 is worth a typical 27-30; 68 is worth a typical 45-55. There's certainly 5-10 guys falling out of this first with no brainer first round grades. Denver gets one.

 

A good example is NFL Draft Scout, run by Rang, and supported by scouts (mostly retired now, but real NFL scouts). They typically have between 25 and 35 players with first round grades. This year there's 44. Impressive class. I think they're a little stingy with a half dozen more first round grades. This class is just too deep.

 

There's another problem with this trade for SF. The worst place to be in this draft, according to Jerry Jones via Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick (if you want to argue), is right where they (Dallas and NE) are... between about 15 and 25. SF jumped into that area and paid to do so. That's the tough spot because it's the top of a long deep tier of similar talent. Chris Landry, a very respectable working scout, said you can find similar talent at 40 as you can at 20 this year. There's 10-15 upper 1st round grades, depending on how tough you grade. There's 30 more with solid mid to late first round grades. I personally think there's a full extra round of first rounders this year.

 

Anyway, that's why I think SF isn't just moving up for moving up's sake. It's a bad deal in that regard and from a simple value and strategy perspective. I like Nolan and McCloughan a lot. Man, it's bizarre to be pulling for your Niners, but I am. I like underdogs, I like the new crew, I like how they do business. I hope they get a long leash and return that team to serious contention. Heck, I like Norv. These are all shrewd people.

 

So, it stands to reason there's more to this than the pick value chart that says bad deal. I think it's targeting specific players. I cannot think of another reason to move up to the top of a deep tier with such a needy team. Can you? You can argue with my premise (deep draft, top of tier lesser value), but your arguing with just about everyone who follows the draft closely if you do.

 

You said, "You cannot tell me that they will get the same caliber player at 37 than at 22." Sure I can. It happens every year in one form or another. But that isn't what I'm saying anyway. I'm saying Denver's two have more value than SF's one based on the nature of this draft and trusting the old value chart that was followed to a "T" on this deal.

 

Certainly, I could be wrong about who SF targets. Certainly Denver could botch their picks or work that trade with GB. But SF targeting specific players makes more sense to me than SF making this deal based on generic BPA reasons.

 

I singled out DWilliams and CGreenway. I'm oddly confident about that. Pick any player you want projected from 15-25 in this draft and I will provide you with examples of why this was a bad trade. Offer up Ernie Sims, I give you Jon Alston in the 3rd. Of course Sims (a big hitting very fast cover two LB) looks better, but it's freaky that almost 60 picks later is the player most similar to him in this draft; a player Pete Carroll calls the best college linebacker he's ever faced; a big hitting very fast cover two LB.

 

Here's one example of Nolan singling out DeAngelo. It seems innocent enough, but it's rare when Senior Bowl coaches name a player like this without mentioning anyone else. They also showed serious interest in Greenway a week or so later. At the time both Williams and Greenway were projected much higher than they currently are. Williams was originally one of the top 10 talents in this draft. He's still almost that high on several "overall" charts. His stock dropped because a few teams expected to take an RB filled the need with FA signings. That's it. So now SF can have a real shot at a near top ten talent with pick 22. I think it's a sensible target. If he falls that far, he is BPA in my book. And I won't be surprised if Greenway is the backup plan, though Lawson has as much Niner love from what I hear.

 

I'm willing to bet if Williams is available at 22, they take him. You can have the other 200+ players in this bet. I'll take DW. So will SF. I don't do sig bets, but we can work out a wager if you want. How about the winner gets the loser's 15th rounder in Goid? :D

 

If DWill is gone, no bet. I could be wrong. I think the odds suggest this is a good bet for you. There's a good chance he'll be gone, so no risk there. There's a good chance I'm full of crap, and you win the bet. And the risk is some meaningless IDP. :lol:

 

I know Nolan has said he was content with his RBs (during the Ricky rumor). I still believe they take DW at 22 if he's available. As I said in support of Davis to SF, this team needs big time playmakers, BPAs regardless of position. It's naive to look too hard at team needs like the many comments in this thread.

 

Belichick this morning; for all you bent out of shape about team needs:

 

Excellent points all, Zap. Thanks for bringing the knowledge..I appreciate your sentiments, and can only say that if there's comparable talent from 22 - 40, maybe Nolan IS scouting specific players in that range but wants to have the choice rather than operating on chance that one of the guys they want will slip to them.

 

That was more my point about picking 22 rather than 37 - at 37 you get the guy who's there. At 22 you select the guy you want.

 

Talent aside, there are many nuances for why one player is drafted over another - stocks rise & fall based on interviews/character, combine performance, fit for specific system....maybe the OLB at 37 is every bit as good as the OLB at 22, but the OLB at 22 is a better fit for Nolan/Singletary's system.

 

I agree that there's talent - but I don't know if you can say Nolan & Co is targeting just 2 guys. I'm sure they like them....but if that was the case I would have expected this to be a draft day move.

 

Maybe they're dealing down to 22 so they still have a 1st rounder if they deal away 1.06 to Stl or someone else. <_<

 

I too am a big fan of the whole Niners front office...Singletary, Nolan and Turner are all excellent talent evaluators and at their respective posts they are all highly competent people.

 

I won't make you any bets, because honestly I have no idea what they're going to do (though it does seem like a sucker bet, a "worthless" 15th round IDP might break my season - lol) but I am very much looking forward to this years draft moreso than any in the last 5 years. :huh:

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I am very much looking forward to this years draft moreso than any in the last 5 years. :blink:

 

Me too. I've always been fascinated by the college kids and everything they go through to get this far, and then the roullette process of picking and choosing is always intriguing, but this year is just over the top as far as being an exciting moment for the NFL.

 

I would like to clarify one other thing. Should Nolan and Co. return the the Niners to greatness, I reserve the right to resume hating them passionately.

 

:lol:

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They are wasting thier time meeting with harrington. He is going to be a Dolphin now.

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I would like to clarify one other thing. Should Nolan and Co. return the the Niners to greatness, I reserve the right to resume hating them passionately.

 

:blink:

 

More than a fair bargain.

 

And though it's not spoken about very often, I cannot see a move they've made thus far that's been bad for the team.

 

even the ones that some have been critical of (overpaying Jennings last year, getting rid of Peterson this year) seemed necessary to me. Jennings can be a huge part of the offense (literally), and Peterson has lost a step - as I've said before, if Nolan & Singletary don't see him as being worth what his asking price was, then I am convinced that he wasn't. In my eyes, they are two of the very best at making that judgement and I trust them completely.

 

the revamping of the coaching staff, from getting Nolan & Singletary to then jumping on Norv Turner when the Raiders dumped him were all quality moves and in my opinion represents one of the best coaching staffs in the NFL.

 

I think the Bryant for Lloyd swap was brilliant, in that Bryant is bigger, faster, stronger, has better hands and will block and go over the middle while Lloyd did none of that. That will immediately benefit A.Smith.

 

I think stealing Larry Allen away from Dallas was also brilliant, and the friends I have who root for Dallas are pissed off because the only reason Dallas let him go was because Allen & Parcells disliked each other.

 

Dealing away a few players who were "eh" fits in Nolan's defense allowed them to stack up draft picks, which then allowed them to make this deal to acquire another 1st rounder.

 

Now we get to see how well they draft - and I think they'll do well indeed. Look at the Ravens defense under Nolan and how quickly they became the best in the NFL.

 

Going to the 4-3 (one of only 2 NFC teams to do so) paid off well last year, and this year's abandoning of the WCO should be very, very interesting as well.

 

so hate away - glad you have the courtesy to wait until they have success though...it's been a tough few years in the cellar, especially since most took it as an opportunity to pile on, still bitter from the glory years.

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On a lighter note, this is the first reported case of anyone in San Francisco being interested in bush.

 

:lol: :blink:

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In a deep draft the later picks get adjusted up in value. This is a deep draft. 37 is worth a typical 27-30; 68 is worth a typical 45-55.

 

If this is an accurate assessment of the worth of the picks (and I'm not saying it is or isn't), then the picks Denver got from SF are worth about a typical #15 :blink:

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If this is an accurate assessment of the worth of the picks (and I'm not saying it is or isn't), then the picks Denver got from SF are worth about a typical #15 :lol:

And every year, there's a bunch of jackasses that say it's time for Shanahan to go. :first:

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And every year, there's a bunch of jackasses that say it's time for Shanahan to go. :rolleyes:

 

Well, let's face it, Shanahan has greatly outlasted the average tenure of an NFL head coach. That's life in the NFL, if you didn't just win the Super Bowl, there are going to be some who think you should go, with few exceptions (mostly for promising new coaches).

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