Top 5 risk / reward players in 2006

[The Moz 69]

1. Domanick Davis - The guy is pretty focking good when healthy. With a below average line at best he actually puts up at least 100 total yards a game and scores more times than not.. The issue is the man is almost as Fragile as Fragile Fred Taylor ! His knees are maybe even " degenerative " . When he is okay he flat out cranks out yardage and receptions like a beast ! If you are willing to take Morrencey and A. Smith late Dominator might be a great mid second round - that is if ya got the balls to do it ! As he can really does get numbers like a first rounder when he plays - he might not really play at all and leave you wit nothing !

 

2. Kurt Warner - He has 2 of the top 5 WR's in the NFL right now ( IMO ) , a top 5 running back , and a offensive minded head coach calling plays ! he's coming off a season where he pretty muich averaged 300 yards passing a game ( when he played ). Risk is A. The man fockign gets hurt if ya breathe on him B. Edge will take TD's away as they won't likley forced as much to throw so much. C. They Drafted arguably the greatest QB in the draft and efinitley the readiest to play now in Matt Leinart. Warner can easily put up top 8 to top 5 QB numbers with all those weapons this season . Or he can also easily get one of his monthly injuries it seems matt Leinart come in an look good and never look back. I view Warner warner as pretty much feast or famine.

 

3. Randy Moss - Look when healthy he is simply the greatest WR in FF ! Problem is he hasn't been healthy in 2 years ! Not that his stats have sucked though ! He still got 1000 yards and 8 TD's in what most people thought was a awful season last year. IMO Randy is a true feast or famine as he can produce like a mid first rounf pick and get you 1500 yards and 17 TD's if he's healthy or get you half that -- ussually isn't anyhting in between - its either or.

 

4. Chester Taylor - This is an interesting pick. He is still not yet the clear cut guy in Minnesota but what is certain minnesota has a healhty an upgraded Line , and offensiveminded head coach , and looked to be movign the football alot to end last season. With Chester he has a chance to actually put up 1,500 total yards and over 10 TD's IF he is the everyhting feature back or he can produce alot less if they go a 3 back system which is Chester on 1st and 2nd downs , Moore on 3rd down downs and passing situations , and fason at da stripe ! If your willing to chance it he can be a first round numbers guy in the 3rd round !

 

5. Roy Williams - he is now in the Martz pass happy system which can make any WR look like gold. But he still plays for Detroit who at best made a parrell move at QB with Kitna. If martz utilizes him as his new Torry Holt Williams can and likley will have his greatest season. Right now i think Roy can serious have a breakout season like Fitzgerald had last year. The scary thing is the questionable QB, Line , RB , defense , coach , and maybe thgis year under martz Mike Williams and Rogers ( other 1st rounders ) actually start to develope and Williams has to share the wealth . . Roy still has a TON of upside this year if things go right he easily puts up top 10 stats.

 

 

 

[ellisonb11 0]

dont forget Kevin Jones and Julius Jones.

[Kopy 491]

I like you're top 3. But for 4 and 5 I would take out Taylor and Williams and add 2 recievers of my own.

 

Terrell Owens- We really don't know what we're going to get. There is no middle ground. People seem to like him and feel his blow up will happen in year 2. Or they just don't trust the guy from day 1.

 

The other guy I would put there is Andre Johnson. This kid is just flat out amazing. Has Houston done enough to put him over the top? Is Carr just not a starting calibur QB?

[SigEp316 0]

Jamal Lewis

[The Moz 69]

Jamal Lewis

 

After 2 suckass seasons I just don't see a lot of reward there. i mean he has one of the greatest O lines the last 2 years and nothing really. Maybe he does comeback strong but watching him in 04 and 05 i just cannot see it. Though he does have talent - you don't run for 2K if youre not really good -- I just think whatever he had he lost the follwoing year.

[titan20 0]

first guy who comes to mind is Terrell Owens.

[mgs316 14]

1. Ron Dayne - Do you risk looking like the idiot who took Dayne a little early and he does nothing, or do you you risk looking like the idiot who passed on Mike Anderson's stats for this year. You make the call!

 

2. Corey Dillon - Is he still the double digit TD machine like the last two seasons, or is his body finally done and the man Shanahan called the best back in the draft take over. You make the call.

[The Moz 69]

1. Ron Dayne - Do you risk looking like the idiot who took Dayne a little early and he does nothing, or do you you risk looking like the idiot who passed on Mike Anderson's stats for this year. You make the call!

 

another good canidate

[Kellys Heroes 0]

Chestor will be #1 this year; Minny knows that Moore will never make #1 rb. I think Chestor is a great #3 maybe even #2 if you want to roll the dice and grab a couple of top flight wrs.

 

Jamal Lewis

 

 

I will not draft this guy past the 3rd. Not after two seasons of junk. 4th rd or lower for me.

[TD Ryan2 314]

Round 1: Ronnie Brown- maybe biggest risk/reward player in this year's fantasy draft.

Round 2: Kevin Jones/Julius Jones- both have shown flashes of being fantastic fantasy RBs, but both could easily be a 2nd round bust.

Round 3: Tony Gonzales- provides a huge advantage to owners if he is indeed still an elite TE... but he may be run-of-the-mill in a year that is loaded with TE talent.

 

At this point "risk" is minimized a bit, but here's a few

Round 4, 5, and 6:

Reggie Bush/Deuce McAllister - who will play, even if they play how bad will the Saints be?

Javon Walker - once an elite but injury and new "run-first" team.

Deshaun Foster - can he stay healthy and provide legit #2 fantasy #s on one of the better NFL teams? or will he be injured and supplanted by DeAngelo?

Joe Horn - associated with the elite WRs for years. Can he return to form? Again, the mystery that in the Saints plays a role here.

Dom Rhodes - great situation *IF* he can hold the job.

 

 

 

After round 6, I don't think any pick is "risky" enough to be in this discussion

[Guest fantasyfreak64]

Culpepper should be #5. He'll explode.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

1. Ron Dayne - Do you risk looking like the idiot who took Dayne a little early and he does nothing, or do you you risk looking like the idiot who passed on Mike Anderson's stats for this year. You make the call!

 

2. Corey Dillon - Is he still the double digit TD machine like the last two seasons, or is his body finally done and the man Shanahan called the best back in the draft take over. You make the call.

 

 

I see very little risk in either one of these players. Dayne's ADP averages 6.11 right now in a 12 team league. Would you laugh at the guy that takes him there with what's happened in the Denver backfield for the last 10 years? And as far as Dillon goes, he only started 10 games but still had over 900 total yards and 13 td's last year. Who's to say he's not going to get back to 2004 status now that he's healthy and extra-motivated by the Maroney draft pick. Taking Dillon in the 4th round could be a steal.

 

I think both of these guys are relatively low risk/high reward picks.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Round 1: Ronnie Brown- maybe biggest risk/reward player in this year's fantasy draft.

 

This would be my choice. He's already being picked as high as 1.04. I have a very hard time believing he'll live up to 1.04 being 4th overall in points. Very high risk/high reward player. I will not be owning this guy on any of my teams, I can see that already and it's only early July yet.

[greggorymac 0]

Culpepper should be #5. He'll explode.

 

His knee may explode. Did you watch any of the games last year before he got injured? He looked very indecisive without the help of Randy tieing up two (sometimes 3) defenders to clear the passing lanes for other WR options. Chambers is good, but he can't carry Randy's jock.

[edjr 5,567]

I see very little risk in either one of these players. Dayne's ADP averages 6.11 right now in a 12 team league. Would you laugh at the guy that takes him there with what's happened in the Denver backfield for the last 10 years? And as far as Dillon goes, he only started 10 games but still had over 900 total yards and 13 td's last year. Who's to say he's not going to get back to 2004 status now that he's healthy and extra-motivated by the Maroney draft pick. Taking Dillon in the 4th round could be a steal.

 

I think both of these guys are relatively low risk/high reward picks.

 

I live in Massachusetts and someone in my 16 teamer, is guaranteed to pick Dillon before the 2nd round ends. As of Today, assuming no injuries.

[mgs316 14]

I see very little risk in either one of these players. Dayne's ADP averages 6.11 right now in a 12 team league. Would you laugh at the guy that takes him there with what's happened in the Denver backfield for the last 10 years? And as far as Dillon goes, he only started 10 games but still had over 900 total yards and 13 td's last year. Who's to say he's not going to get back to 2004 status now that he's healthy and extra-motivated by the Maroney draft pick. Taking Dillon in the 4th round could be a steal.

 

I think both of these guys are relatively low risk/high reward picks.

 

I just don't see the starting RB in Denver lasting till almost the seventh round.

[qimqam 1]

I just don't see the starting RB in Denver lasting till almost the seventh round.

We're talking about Ron Dayne. Have you ever seen him play i the NFL?

 

He will not be the starting RB 3 games into the season if at all!

[SigEp316 0]

After 2 suckass seasons I just don't see a lot of reward there.

 

I will not draft this guy past the 3rd. Not after two seasons of junk. 4th rd or lower for me.

 

I thought this was point of risk/reward. I don't think he's ever had a QB that could get it done, honestly, the best QB that team has ever had was Trent Dilfer.

 

I think the addition of McNair makes him worth the risk/reward. This will be the first time in his career that he doesn't face 8 in the box. He can also be had in the 3rd, so theoretically you can go RB, WR, Jamal....sounds good to me.

[Cuse9 128]

Risk/Reward Top 5:

 

5....Willis McGahee, he faces a schedule of terrible run defenses, but has a terrible qb in Losman, a mediocre qb in Holcomb or Nall, which none knows what he will do and no Eric Moulds (not that he's been stellar in recent years) The reward could be great, but the defenses will key on him.

 

4....Charlie Frye, Decent running back in Droughns....great potential to throw to in Braylon and Kellen and a very reliable wr in Joe J. The O-line is is okay but weak on the right side, but at least Charlie can see that side. Could turn into a very good fantasy qb.

 

3....Deshaun Foster, great when healthy....but that is a huge concern. With Steve and Keyshawn he will get favorable defenses to run against.

 

2....Ron Dayne, If he heads into the opener as Denvers #1 back and keeps the job, could Dayne actually be a fantasy stud by years end!!!?? I doubt I would draft him, but the guy who takes this risk, could reap huge rewards.

 

1....Terrell Owens, do I even need to say anything

[mdubz 0]

TO, reggie bush, culpepper. all have HUGE upside but also significant downsides.

[rocket1012 0]

How about Drew Bledsoe? He has the potential to put up "monster"passing numbers with those recievers, or he'll be "pounded into oblivion" if his blocking doesn't give him 4 seconds plus to get rid of his passes....

[jocstrap 8]

I still like Deshaun Foster - - With Stephen Davis gone and those 12 one and two yard td's from last year...I believe Foster will be the guy to benefit the most. Many will argue that he is brittle, but we will see.

[lowman 4]

Sorry Greg**** I like Dante with Chambers, better than Moss, when have you ever heard of Chambers taking plays off? Plus Chambers has been great with ###### for QB's. Chris Chambers is a top 5 WR this year.I like Nick Saban I like where this team is going.

[Kitsnow 0]

qb- drew bledsoe (old talented corps can he do it again?)

wr- reggie brown (can he really fill TO's shoes in a more respectable manner)

RB-cedric benson (living up to his paycheck?)

te-zach hilton- (does drew brees make a gates out of you?

[greggorymac 0]

Sorry Greg**** I like Dante with Chambers, better than Moss, when have you ever heard of Chambers taking plays off? Plus Chambers has been great with ###### for QB's. Chris Chambers is a top 5 WR this year.I like Nick Saban I like where this team is going.

 

I'm not questioning Chamber's ability, I'm questioning Daunte's. The only reason Daunte put up the numbers he did in MIN was due to Moss's abilty to draw multiple defenders (which allowed Daunte better vision for the rest of the WRs) and the constant threat for him to take off and run. I can guarantee you that 1) Daunte will never again be the rushing threat that he once was and that 2) Chambers has never commanded the respect or will of other DBs that Moss has in the past. Expect more of Daunte '05 in 06'.

[Rookie QB 0]

Drew Brees should be mentioned as well.

[akaoni 0]

qb- drew bledsoe (old talented corps can he do it again?)

wr- reggie brown (can he really fill TO's shoes in a more respectable manner)

RB-cedric benson (living up to his paycheck?)

te-zach hilton- (does drew brees make a gates out of you?

 

Yes, these guys are all upside guys, but unless you're stretching and picking one in round 5-6 I don't see much risk.

 

I think that the aforementioned J. Lewis, TO, and D. Foster, fit the bill better...

 

I'll add another: Peyton Manning. His high risk lies not in his performance, but in what you forego to get him: A top RB. If you pick him in round 1, and one or both of your RBs fail to measure up (let's say D.D. and Corey Dillion, two other high risk reward guys in my book), then you're probably in trouble unless his numbers grow back to 2004 stats...

[nlgb1 0]

chester taylor

tony gonzalez

drew bledsoe

andre johnson

reggie bush

 

hands down thats the top 5

[rebooters 1]

i like your picks. KJ and JJ suck and will not bounce back. TO is a stud and will be the #1 bounce back player of the year. i really like roy williams to but i just cant convince myself he will have a super great season because of that damn team, the lions. martz presence should definitely help roy get a few more touches and tds. id say 1100 yards and 10tds. pretty good but not TO like numbers.

[Barnaby Wilde 0]

We're talking about Ron Dayne. Have you ever seen him play i the NFL?

 

He will not be the starting RB 3 games into the season if at all!

 

 

 

You keep thinking that skippy.

[devilsden 0]

You keep thinking that skippy.

Cedric Cobbs will be the starting back in Denver by week 2

[Franknbeans 46]

chester taylor

tony gonzalez

drew bledsoe

andre johnson

reggie bush

 

hands down thats the top 5

and TO

[Buttmonkey 8]

I can guarantee you that 1) Daunte will never again be the rushing threat that he once was and that 2) Chambers has never commanded the respect or will of other DBs that Moss has in the past.

 

You can't guarantee ######. You're not his trainer, you're not on the coaching staff, and you're not an NFL talent analyst. Daunte had more issues first 6 games last season than just losing Moss. He had a #2 receiver trying to play #1 (Burelson); he had a pathetic offensive line with Birk out; they lost their O-coordinator to Miami and Tice is such an idiot they didn't make any adjustments. People will say it's all Randy Moss and point to stats last year with Moss in those games vs. games Moss didn't play in. But realize that Moss started about 4 games where he wasn't effective at all (heck one game he started and than sat the rest of the game - maybe 4-5 plays total). I will agree Moss has an effect on defenses and the AFC West was spared last year with Moss's injury, but a healthy Moss will command some respect and Moss and Oakland should be better this year. Back to Culpepper, it will come down to Chemistry with Champers and if the two can gel early on, then Culpepper will be a stud qb again. If not, then he'll be much better than last season, but not the 40 total TD guy that he has been in the past.