football_scooter 0 Posted May 23, 2007 SCOOTER Dammit Scooter...I knew those analogies would be ripped apart and of course by you. As you have through this thread, you articulated your arguements and counter arguements very well. Normally I'd say agree to disagree, but this thread continues to renew the debate, so I say we just keep going to someone drops...like LJ will in week3. Sure, might as well beat this dead horse until the ground gets tired from the pounding. Hey, I'm not arguing just to argue - you & tj have both convinced me that there's a lot more risk than I wanted to admit...but it wouldn't stop be from drafting LJ. From reading Herm's comments, it sounds like the Chiefs will be using a 2-back system, with a 3rd back in there from time to time. He said ideally LJ would get 20-25 carries a game. Now, whether this manifests in reality is another story - he is Herm Edwards, after all and thus cannot be trusted. But if the following happens, I could see LJ having an even less likely better season. IF he's not overused IF the Chiefs balance the offense with some semblance of a receiving game IF the Chiefs address the O-Line IF the Chiefs settle the Trent Green mess at QB Then LJ could have fewer carries, be more effective with the carries he gets, and score more TDs. Assuming the receptions would stay comparable, you'd be looking at a top 3 RB. But it's a stretch to assume that all of those things will happen. I project LJ somewhere around 10% dropoff from last year's numbers. I'd take him top 5 because I think he'll be a durable, steady producer good for 1 TD and at least 80 yards rushing per game. Ironic though that his durability is the primary reason so many on the other side of this debate would rather avoid him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
r8drzrule 0 Posted May 23, 2007 i don't know about the # of carries considering LJ is so young, it wouldn't deter me from drafting him. however, the fact that roaf and shields are done deters me bigtime. i haven't thought about rankings just yet, but with those two gone, HE GOES WAY DOWN IN MY BOOK. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Texansfan 0 Posted May 23, 2007 This statement above could be attached almost verbatim to Edgerring James prior to the 2001 season, ALSO after a 2000 season where he attained a 400 f/carry season. Guess what happened in that 2001 season? James went down in game 6 and was lost for the season. Sure, but what does that have to do with workload? Injuries are unpredictable and can happend to any player at any time... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NAn 39 Posted May 23, 2007 Sure, but what does that have to do with workload? Injuries are unpredictable and can happend to any player at any time... Umm, Edge had a 400 f/carry season ALSO, in 2000 ...then NEXT year he got injured and was lost form 10 games. So it has to do with workload, as I'm illustrating that Edge hit the benchmark workload, was young, had little 'mileage', had no history of signficant and/or nagging injury...same pts you make for LJ...and Edge got injured and was lost for 10 games? Again, I can't breakdown exactly why this happens after a 370 season (though tj puts forth a hypothesis I've considered and is worth consideration)...only that it happens to a high percentage. And i've been meaning to ask this...why do many ffers consider 'injury history' when drafting players 'if injuries are unpredictable and can happen anytime'? Sounds like, again, I should explain my take...I'm NOT saying DON'T draft LJ period. I'm saying this data should be ONE of MANY considerations one takes into account when drafting...like a RBs OL, injury history if any, coaching, team, etc. Consider it or not...your choice. But, to just DISCOUNT it PT BLANK, considering the history and consistency of the data, just doesn't make alot of sense to me...but to each his own. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DankNuggs 305 Posted May 23, 2007 And i've been meaning to ask this...why do many ffers consider 'injury history' when drafting players 'if injuries are unpredictable and can happen anytime'? Agree 100%. I see no rhyme or reason for these guys in discounting or not discounting production based on 'Injury risk' bottom line, it happens. and in all likelihood, if it does happen, its due to a freak hit or some other anomoly rather than a calculated deterioration that lands a guy on IR. If the guy is carrying a nagging injury into the season, then i can see a concrete reason to discount. or if they are recovering from a substantial injury. But you are taking healthy guys are arbitrarily assigning them a discount, all the while you are drafting DJ 'F-in' Hackett 6 rounds too early. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
t.j 35 Posted May 23, 2007 all the while you are drafting DJ 'F-in' Hackett 6 rounds too early. Huh? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DankNuggs 305 Posted May 23, 2007 Huh? Making the point that medicrity is overhyped, and guys who produce are being phantom-discounted Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
t.j 35 Posted May 23, 2007 Making the point that medicrity is overhyped, and guys who produce are being phantom-discounted Guys like DJ Hackett have absolutely nothing to do with this discussion. There's nothing phantom about discounting LJ based on last year's workload. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Texansfan 0 Posted May 23, 2007 And i've been meaning to ask this...why do many ffers consider 'injury history' when drafting players 'if injuries are unpredictable and can happen anytime'? To me injury history refers to a player returning AFTER a prior injury which makes them more of a risk to get re-injured or that their performance will be hindered in some way b/c of the injury. For example I'm leary of Donovan McNabb b/c he is returning from a MAJOR injury and has failed to play a full season 3 of the last 4 years. Future injuries are unpredictable. All it takes is one bad "McGahee" type hit and thats it. Regardless of your age, wear and tear, etc. Football is a fast, dangerous game. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NAn 39 Posted May 24, 2007 For example I'm leary of Donovan McNabb b/c he is returning from a MAJOR injury and has failed to play a full season 3 of the last 4 years. Future injuries are unpredictable. All it takes is one bad "McGahee" type hit and thats it. Regardless of your age, wear and tear, etc. Football is a fast, dangerous game. You don't see the irony of this? First paragraph you say you're leary of a player b/c of past injury. Then next you say future injuries are unpredictable. If FUTURE injuries are unpredictable then why does his past injury make a difference? What you're actually saying is 'I'm leary of Mcnabb b/c his past injury has me concerned about FUTURE injury'. So, basically you're taking ESTABLISHED information and attaching it to future speculation...I'm sure you wouldn't base you're ENTIRE decision on Mcnabb on this particular information, but it would likely be a FACTOR. How is that any different than taking the data researched by myself/tj and attaching it to future speculation...not our entire decision either, but a FACTOR to consider. OR Are you saying 'The past injuries and/or inability to stay healthy shows a TREND that I would speculate could continue in the FUTURE'? Again, how would that be any different than 'The data/research of heavy workload rbs shows a TREND that I would speculate could continue in the FUTURE'? My pt being...how could you validate one statement but totally discount the other? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
onejayhawk 3 Posted May 25, 2007 Since the Chiefs line is in issue, I think this is relevant . http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2006.php After several years in the top 5 run lines, pretty much alone in that regard, the Chiefs fell to mid-league last year. Contributing to this was, 1) Roaf's sudden, unanticipated retirement, 2) New line coach, OC and HC, 3) New offensive system. This does not take into account Trent Green's general suckiness. This year they lost Will Shields, possibly the best lineman the team has ever had, and one of the best OG the NFL has ever had. That being said, this is not like Roaf, who left right before camp. The team has been expecting Shields to announce, and as much as can be, they are prepared. While he was still an excellent player, he was Plus the staff and system has been in place a whole season. In any event, I see no reason to assume that the O-line play in KC will be any worse than last year. In fact, when you consider LJ's splits, it may be noticably better than last year. J Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cmh6476 1,025 Posted July 27, 2007 Carl peterson was asked off the air what he thougth about it, and he said 416 carries was just crazy. They are going to do everything they can to limit his workload and have some of the others (Bennett, Smith, Priest, etc.) to take some of the workload off LJ's shoulders Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest JahRasta311 Posted July 27, 2007 Carl peterson was asked off the air what he thougth about it, and he said 416 carries was just crazy. They are going to do everything they can to limit his workload and have some of the others (Bennett, Smith, Priest, etc.) to take some of the workload off LJ's shoulders why do you feel the need to bump even more of these topics? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cmh6476 1,025 Posted July 27, 2007 why do you feel the need to bump even more of these topics? I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd. as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest JahRasta311 Posted July 27, 2007 I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd. as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo hahaha, has anyone told you that you look exactly like Ethan Suplee? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
redtodd 7 Posted July 27, 2007 I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd. as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest tiki_gods Posted July 27, 2007 I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd. as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
t.j 35 Posted July 27, 2007 Carl peterson was asked off the air what he thougth about it, and he said 416 carries was just crazy. It most certainly is. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
listen2me 23 1,873 Posted July 27, 2007 I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd. as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Geohound 0 Posted July 27, 2007 Carl peterson was asked off the air what he thougth about it, and he said 416 carries was just crazy. They are going to do everything they can to limit his workload and have some of the others (Bennett, Smith, Priest, etc.) to take some of the workload off LJ's shoulders I'll have to see it to believe it, with that self-serving ######, Herm "RB Killer" Edwards as the coach. Hopefully it proves true. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Inspiration 0 Posted July 27, 2007 I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd. as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Big Blue 06 195 Posted July 29, 2007 I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd. as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest _my_2_cents_ Posted July 29, 2007 another example of a great debate that degenerated into a pissing contest of epic proportion. Sad. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FlaHawker 24 Posted July 30, 2007 I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd. as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
De Novo 0 Posted August 17, 2007 I think one piece of analysis that might "confirm" (or diminish) a causal relationship here is looking at backs with carries between, say 300-340. I think part of the issue may be that, hey, if a guy wasn't tearing it up he probably wouldn't be getting 370 carries. To a lesser extent, the same directionally applies to guys in the 300-340 range. Given that a player was playing well enough to get the rock 300 or more times, it's statistically likely that he will have fewer carries (and probably less production) the following year. I guess what I'm trying to normalize for the "5 running backs will fall out of last year's top 10" effect. Well, of course, statistically they're more likely to go down than up. If the data looks similar for the 300-340 group, I'd be less nervous about drafting LJ. I suspect it's not as bad, but still pretty bad. t.j., how long do you think that would take using your method? I remain convinced that LJ will exceed his performance last year or fall waaaay short. I believe the former, but the numbers as presented indicate the latter is about 10x as likely. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
t.j 35 Posted August 18, 2007 I think one piece of analysis that might "confirm" (or diminish) a causal relationship here is looking at backs with carries between, say 300-340. I think part of the issue may be that, hey, if a guy wasn't tearing it up he probably wouldn't be getting 370 carries. To a lesser extent, the same directionally applies to guys in the 300-340 range. Given that a player was playing well enough to get the rock 300 or more times, it's statistically likely that he will have fewer carries (and probably less production) the following year. I guess what I'm trying to normalize for the "5 running backs will fall out of last year's top 10" effect. Well, of course, statistically they're more likely to go down than up. If the data looks similar for the 300-340 group, I'd be less nervous about drafting LJ. I suspect it's not as bad, but still pretty bad. t.j., how long do you think that would take using your method? I already have the data for backs that carried 300+ times in the regular season. (I don't have the follow-up-season data for guys that combined in the reg season/playoffs for 300+.) Here you go: YEAR PLAYER RA RA RA RYD YPC TD RFP Age All P RS 'YR PLAYER RA RYD YPC TD RFP RA RS RYD YPC TD FP RS Diff Diff Diff Diff Diff 2001 Corey Dillon, CIN 340 0 340 1315 3.9 10 191.5 27.9 '02 Corey Dillon, CIN 314 1311 4.2 7 173.1 -26 -4 0.3 -3 -18.4 2004 L. Tomlinson, SD 365 26 339 1335 3.9 17 235.5 26.2 '05 L. Tomlinson, SD 339 1462 4.3 18 254.2 0 127 0.4 1 18.7 2001 L. Tomlinson, SD 339 0 339 1236 3.6 10 183.6 23.2 '02 L. Tomlinson, SD 372 1683 4.5 14 252.3 33 447 0.9 4 68.7 2005 L. Tomlinson, SD 339 0 339 1462 4.3 18 254.2 27.2 '06 L. Tomlinson, SD 348 1815 5.2 28 349.5 9 353 0.9 10 95.3 1981 Walter Payton, CHI 339 0 339 1222 3.6 6 158.2 28.1 '82 Walter Payton, CHI 148 596 4.0 1 65.6 -191 -626 0.4 -5 -92.6 2000 James Stewart, DET 339 0 339 1184 3.5 10 178.4 29.7 '01 James Stewart, DET 143 685 4.8 1 74.5 -196 -499 1.3 -9 -103.9 1979 W. Montgomery, PHI 377 39 338 1512 4.5 9 205.2 26.0 '80 W. Montgomery, PHI 193 778 4.0 8 125.8 -145 -734 -0.5 -1 -79.4 1995 Terry Allen, WAS 338 0 338 1309 3.9 10 190.9 28.5 '96 Terry Allen, WAS 347 1353 3.9 21 261.3 9 44 0 11 70.4 1995 Ricky Watters, PHI 368 31 337 1273 3.8 11 193.3 27.4 '96 Ricky Watters, PHI 353 1411 4.0 13 219.1 16 138 0.2 2 25.8 2005 Rudi Johnson, CIN 350 13 337 1458 4.3 12 217.8 26.9 '06 Rudi Johnson, CIN 341 1309 3.8 12 202.9 4 -149 -0.5 0 -14.9 2005 Larry Johnson, KC 336 0 336 1750 5.2 20 295.0 26.8 '06 Larry Johnson 416 1789 4.3 17 280.9 80 39 -0.9 -3 -14.1 1983 Curt Warner, SEA 387 52 335 1449 4.3 13 222.9 23.5 '84 Curt Warner, SEA 10 40 4.0 0 4.0 -325 -1409 -0.3 -13 -218.9 1997 Barry Sanders, DET 353 18 335 2053 6.1 11 271.3 30.1 '98 Barry Sanders, DET 343 1491 4.3 4 173.1 8 -562 -1.8 -7 -98.2 1996 Eddie George, HOU 335 0 335 1368 4.1 8 184.8 23.9 '97 Eddie George, TEN 357 1399 3.9 6 175.9 22 31 -0.2 -2 -8.9 2004 Edgerrin James, IND 352 18 334 1548 4.6 9 208.8 27.1 '05 Edgerrin James, IND 360 1506 4.2 13 228.6 26 -42 -0.4 4 19.8 1995 Errict Rhett, TB 334 0 334 1207 3.6 11 186.7 25.7 '96 Errict Rhett, TB 176 539 3.1 3 71.9 -158 -668 -0.5 -8 -114.8 2001 Curtis Martin, NYJ 349 16 333 1513 4.5 10 211.3 29.3 '02 Curtis Martin, NYJ 261 1094 4.2 7 151.4 -72 -419 -0.3 -3 -59.9 1978 Walter Payton, CHI 333 0 333 1395 4.2 11 205.5 25.1 '79 Walter Payton, CHI 369 1610 4.4 14 245.0 36 215 0.2 3 39.5 1994 Chris Warren, SEA 333 0 333 1545 4.6 9 208.5 27.6 '95 Chris Warren, SEA 310 1346 4.3 15 224.6 -23 -199 -0.3 6 16.1 2000 Stephen Davis, WAS 332 0 332 1318 4.0 11 197.8 27.5 '01 Stephen Davis, WAS 356 1432 4.0 5 173.2 24 114 0 -6 -24.6 1994 Barry Sanders, DET 344 13 331 1883 5.7 7 230.3 27.1 '95 Barry Sanders, DET 314 1500 4.8 11 216.0 -17 -383 -0.9 4 -14.3 1979 Ottis Anderson, STL 331 0 331 1605 4.8 8 208.5 23.6 '80 Ottis Anderson, STL 301 1352 4.5 9 189.2 -30 -253 -0.3 1 -19.3 2003 Travis Henry, BUF 331 0 331 1356 4.1 10 195.6 25.8 '04 Travis Henry, BUF 94 326 3.5 0 32.6 -237 -1030 -0.6 -10 -163 1983 William Andrews, ATL 331 0 331 1567 4.7 7 198.7 28.7 '84 William Andrews, ATL 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 -331 -1567 -4.7 -7 -198.7 1997 Dorsey Levens, GB 400 71 329 1435 4.4 7 185.5 28.3 '98 Dorsey Levens, GB 115 378 3.3 1 43.8 -214 -1057 -1.1 -6 -141.7 1999 Emmitt Smith, DAL 344 15 329 1397 4.2 11 205.7 31.3 '00 Emmitt Smith, DAL 294 1203 4.1 9 174.3 -35 -194 -0.1 -2 -31.4 1981 Ottis Anderson, STL 328 0 328 1376 4.2 9 191.6 25.6 '82 Ottis Anderson, STL 145 587 4.0 3 76.7 -183 -789 -0.2 -6 -114.9 1996 Emmitt Smith, DAL 366 39 327 1204 3.7 12 192.4 28.3 '97 Emmitt Smith, DAL 261 1074 4.1 4 131.4 -66 -130 0.4 -8 -61 1994 Rodney Hampton, NYG 327 0 327 1075 3.3 6 143.5 26.4 '95 Rodney Hampton, NYG 306 1182 3.9 10 178.2 -21 107 0.6 4 34.7 2001 Priest Holmes, KC 327 0 327 1555 4.8 8 203.5 28.9 '02 Priest Holmes, KC 313 1615 5.2 21 287.5 -14 60 0.4 13 84 1984 John Riggins, WAS 348 21 327 1239 3.8 14 207.9 36.1 '85 John Riggins, WAS 176 667 3.8 8 114.7 -151 -572 0 -6 -93.2 2003 Shaun Alexander, SEA 346 20 326 1435 4.4 14 227.5 27.0 '04 Shaun Alexander, SEA 353 1696 4.8 16 265.6 27 261 0.4 2 38.1 1989 Ottis Anderson, NYG 349 24 325 1023 3.1 14 186.3 33.6 '90 Ottis Anderson, NYG 225 784 3.5 11 144.4 -100 -239 0.4 -3 -41.9 1999 Ricky Watters, SEA 344 19 325 1210 3.7 5 151.0 31.4 '00 Ricky Watters, SEA 278 1242 4.5 7 166.2 -47 32 0.8 2 15.2 2002 Deuce McAllister, NO 325 0 325 1388 4.3 13 216.8 24.7 '03 Deuce McAllister, NO 351 1641 4.7 8 212.1 26 253 0.4 -5 -4.7 2002 Travis Henry, BUF 325 0 325 1438 4.4 13 221.8 24.8 '03 Travis Henry, BUF 331 1356 4.1 10 195.6 6 -82 -0.3 -3 -26.2 2005 Willis McGahee, BUF 325 0 325 1247 3.8 5 154.7 24.9 '06 Willis McGahee, BUF 259 990 3.8 6 135.0 -66 -257 0 1 -19.7 1999 Duce Staley, PHI 325 0 325 1273 3.9 4 151.3 25.5 '00 Duce Staley, PHI 79 344 4.4 1 40.4 -246 -929 0.5 -3 -110.9 1985 Walter Payton, CHI 391 67 324 1551 4.8 9 209.1 32.1 '86 Walter Payton, CHI 321 1333 4.2 8 181.3 -3 -218 -0.6 -1 -27.8 1998 Marshall Faulk, IND 324 0 324 1319 4.1 6 167.9 26.5 '99 Marshall Faulk, STL 253 1381 5.5 7 180.1 -71 62 1.4 1 12.2 1987 Charles White, LAM 324 0 324 1374 4.2 11 203.4 30.6 '88 Charles White, LAM 88 323 3.7 0 32.3 -236 -1051 -0.5 -11 -171.1 2003 Curtis Martin, NYJ 323 0 323 1308 4.0 2 142.8 31.3 '04 Curtis Martin, NYJ 371 1697 4.6 12 241.7 48 389 0.6 10 98.9 1983 Earl Campbell, HOU 322 0 322 1301 4.0 12 202.1 29.4 '84 Earl Campbell, HOU/NO 146 468 3.2 4 70.8 -176 -833 -0.8 -8 -131.3 2004 Tiki Barber, NYG 322 0 322 1518 4.7 13 229.8 30.4 '05 Tiki Barber, NYG 357 1860 5.2 9 240.0 35 342 0.5 -4 10.2 1986 Walter Payton, CHI 335 14 321 1333 4.2 8 181.3 33.1 '87 Walter Payton, CHI 146 533 3.7 4 77.3 -175 -800 -0.5 -4 -104 1999 Eddie George, TEN 428 108 320 1304 4.1 9 184.4 26.9 '00 Eddie George, TEN 403 1509 3.7 14 234.9 83 205 -0.4 5 50.5 1996 Jerome Bettis, PIT 358 38 320 1431 4.5 11 209.1 25.5 '97 Jerome Bettis, PIT 375 1665 4.4 7 208.5 55 234 -0.1 -4 -0.6 2003 Priest Holmes, KC 344 24 320 1420 4.4 27 304.0 30.9 '04 Priest Holmes, KC 196 892 4.6 14 173.2 -124 -528 0.2 -13 -130.8 1998 Emmitt Smith, DAL 335 16 319 1332 4.2 13 211.2 30.3 '99 Emmitt Smith, DAL 329 1397 4.2 11 205.7 10 65 0 -2 -5.5 1994 Jerome Bettis, LAM 319 0 319 1025 3.2 3 120.5 23.5 '95 Jerome Bettis, STL 183 637 3.5 3 81.7 -136 -388 0.3 0 -38.8 1986 Curt Warner, SEA 319 0 319 1481 4.6 13 226.1 26.5 '87 Curt Warner, SEA 234 985 4.2 8 146.5 -85 -496 -0.4 -5 -79.6 1998 Ricky Watters, SEA 319 0 319 1239 3.9 9 177.9 30.4 '99 Ricky Watters, SEA 325 1210 3.7 5 151.0 6 -29 -0.2 -4 -26.9 2003 Stephen Davis, CAR 382 64 318 1444 4.5 8 192.4 30.5 '04 Stephen Davis, WAS 24 92 3.8 0 9.2 -294 -1352 -0.7 -8 -183.2 1980 Walter Payton, CHI 317 0 317 1460 4.6 6 182.0 27.1 '81 Walter Payton, CHI 339 1222 3.6 6 158.2 22 -238 -1 0 -23.8 1995 Edgar Bennett, GB 372 56 316 1067 3.4 3 124.7 27.5 '96 Edgar Bennett, GB 222 899 4.0 2 101.9 -94 -168 0.6 -1 -22.8 1996 Curtis Martin, NE 365 49 316 1152 3.6 14 199.2 24.3 '97 Curtis Martin, NE 274 1160 4.2 4 140.0 -42 8 0.6 -10 -59.2 1998 Jerome Bettis, PIT 316 0 316 1185 3.8 3 136.5 27.5 '99 Jerome Bettis, PIT 299 1091 3.6 7 151.1 -17 -94 -0.2 4 14.6 2000 Curtis Martin, NYJ 316 0 316 1204 3.8 9 174.4 28.3 '01 Curtis Martin, NYJ 333 1513 4.5 10 211.3 17 309 0.7 1 36.9 2000 Corey Dillon, CIN 315 0 315 1435 4.6 7 185.5 26.9 '01 Corey Dillon, CIN 340 1315 3.9 10 191.5 25 -120 -0.7 3 6 2001 Eddie George, TEN 315 0 315 939 3.0 5 123.9 28.9 '02 Eddie George, TEN 343 1165 3.4 12 188.5 28 226 0.4 7 64.6 2005 Thomas Jones, CHI 334 20 314 1335 4.3 9 187.5 28.0 '06 Thomas Jones, CHI 296 1210 4.1 6 157.0 -18 -125 -0.2 -3 -30.5 1995 Barry Sanders, DET 324 10 314 1500 4.8 11 216.0 28.1 '96 Barry Sanders, DET 307 1553 5.1 11 221.3 -7 53 0.3 0 5.3 1994 Marshall Faulk, IND 314 0 314 1282 4.1 11 194.2 22.5 '95 Marshall Faulk, IND 289 1078 3.7 11 173.8 -25 -204 -0.4 0 -20.4 2002 Corey Dillon, CIN 314 0 314 1311 4.2 7 173.1 28.9 '03 Corey Dillon, CIN 138 541 3.9 2 66.1 -176 -770 -0.3 -5 -107 1989 Eric Dickerson, IND 314 0 314 1311 4.2 7 173.1 30.0 '90 Eric Dickerson, IND 166 677 4.1 4 91.7 -148 -634 -0.1 -3 -81.4 1983 Walter Payton, CHI 314 0 314 1421 4.5 6 178.1 30.1 '84 Walter Payton, CHI 381 1684 4.4 11 234.4 67 263 -0.1 5 56.3 2001 Lamar Smith, MIA 319 6 313 968 3.1 6 132.8 31.8 '02 Lamar Smith, CAR 209 737 3.5 7 115.7 -104 -231 0.4 1 -17.1 2003 L. Tomlinson, SD 313 0 313 1645 5.3 13 242.5 25.2 '04 L. Tomlinson, SD 339 1335 3.9 17 235.5 26 -310 -1.4 4 -7 2001 Ricky Williams, NO 313 0 313 1245 4.0 6 160.5 25.3 '02 Ricky Williams, MIA 383 1853 4.8 16 281.3 70 608 0.8 10 120.8 1980 Billy Sims, DET 313 0 313 1303 4.2 13 208.3 26.0 '81 Billy Sims, DET 296 1437 4.9 13 221.7 -17 134 0.7 0 13.4 2002 Priest Holmes, KC 313 0 313 1615 5.2 21 287.5 29.9 '03 Priest Holmes, KC 320 1420 4.4 27 304.0 7 -195 -0.8 6 16.5 1992 Thurman Thomas, BUF 373 61 312 1487 4.8 9 202.7 27.3 '93 Thurman Thomas, BUF 355 1315 3.7 6 167.5 43 -172 -1.1 -3 -35.2 2003 Eddie George, TEN 353 41 312 1031 3.3 5 133.1 30.9 '04 Eddie George, DAL 132 432 3.3 4 67.2 -180 -599 0 -1 -65.9 1992 Barry Sanders, DET 312 0 312 1352 4.3 9 189.2 25.1 '93 Barry Sanders, DET 243 1115 4.6 3 129.5 -69 -237 0.3 -6 -59.7 1988 Roger Craig, SF 366 56 310 1502 4.8 9 204.2 29.1 '89 Roger Craig, SF 271 1054 3.9 6 141.4 -39 -448 -0.9 -3 -62.8 1978 Franco Harris, PIT 350 40 310 1082 3.5 8 156.2 29.5 '79 Franco Harris, PIT 267 1186 4.4 11 184.6 -43 104 0.9 3 28.4 1998 Garrison Hearst, SF 333 23 310 1570 5.1 7 199.0 28.7 '99 Garrison Hearst, SF 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 -310 -1570 -5.1 -7 -199 2003 Edgerrin James, IND 329 19 310 1259 4.1 11 191.9 26.1 '04 Edgerrin James, IND 334 1548 4.6 9 208.8 24 289 0.5 -2 16.9 1992 Reggie Cobb, TB 310 0 310 1171 3.8 9 171.1 25.2 '93 Reggie Cobb, TB 221 658 3.0 3 83.8 -89 -513 -0.8 -6 -87.3 1995 Chris Warren, SEA 310 0 310 1346 4.3 15 224.6 28.6 '96 Chris Warren, SEA 203 855 4.2 5 115.5 -107 -491 -0.1 -10 -109.1 2000 Jamal Lewis, BAL 412 103 309 1364 4.4 6 172.4 22.0 '01 Jamal Lewis, BAL 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 -309 -1364 -4.4 -6 -172.4 2000 Lamar Smith, MIA 357 48 309 1139 3.7 14 197.9 30.8 '01 Lamar Smith, MIA 313 968 3.1 6 132.8 4 -171 -0.6 -8 -65.1 2001 Shaun Alexander, SEA 309 0 309 1318 4.3 14 215.8 25.0 '02 Shaun Alexander, SEA 295 1175 4.0 16 213.5 -14 -143 -0.3 2 -2.3 2005 Reuben Droughns, CLE 309 0 309 1232 4.0 2 135.2 28.0 '06 Reuben Droughns, CLE 220 758 3.4 4 99.8 -89 -474 -0.6 2 -35.4 2002 Jamal Lewis, BAL 308 0 308 1327 4.3 6 168.7 24.0 '03 Jamal Lewis, BAL 387 2066 5.3 14 290.6 79 739 1 8 121.9 1996 K. Abdul-Jabbar, MIA 307 0 307 1116 3.6 11 177.6 23.2 '97 K. Abdul-Jabbar, MIA 283 892 3.2 15 179.2 -24 -224 -0.4 4 1.6 1988 Joe Morris, NYG 307 0 307 1083 3.5 5 138.3 29.0 '89 Joe Morris, NYG 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 -307 -1083 -3.5 -5 -138.3 1996 Barry Sanders, DET 307 0 307 1553 5.1 11 221.3 29.1 '97 Barry Sanders, DET 335 2053 6.1 11 271.3 28 500 1 0 5 1980 Joe Cribbs, BUF 322 16 306 1185 3.9 11 184.5 23.7 '81 'Joe Cribbs, BUF 257 1097 4.3 3 127.7 -49 -88 0.4 -8 -56.8 1995 Rodney Hampton, NYG 306 0 306 1182 3.9 10 178.2 27.4 '96 Rodney Hampton, NYG 254 827 3.3 1 88.7 -52 -355 -0.6 -9 -89.5 1985 Tony Dorsett, DAL 322 17 305 1307 4.3 7 172.7 32.4 '86 Tony Dorsett, DAL 184 748 4.1 5 104.8 -121 -559 -0.2 -2 -67.9 2001 Ahman Green, GB 341 37 304 1387 4.6 9 192.7 25.5 '02 Ahman Green, GB 286 1240 4.3 7 166.0 -18 -147 -0.3 -2 -26.7 2002 Tiki Barber, NYG 330 26 304 1387 4.6 11 204.7 28.4 '04 Tiki Barber, NYG 322 1518 4.7 13 229.8 18 131 0.1 2 25.1 1986 George Rogers, WAS 369 66 303 1203 4.0 18 228.3 28.7 '87 George Rogers, WAS 163 613 3.8 6 97.3 -140 -590 -0.2 -12 -131 1978 Earl Campbell, HOU 377 75 302 1450 4.8 13 223.0 24.4 '79 Earl Campbell, HOU 368 1697 4.6 19 283.7 66 247 -0.2 6 60.7 2004 Domanick Davis, HOU 302 0 302 1188 3.9 13 196.8 24.9 '05 Domanick Davis, HOU 230 976 4.2 2 109.6 -72 -212 0.3 -11 -87.2 1984 Tony Dorsett, DAL 302 0 302 1189 3.9 6 154.9 31.4 '85 Tony Dorsett, DAL 305 1307 4.3 7 172.7 3 118 0.4 1 17.8 1980 Ottis Anderson, STL 301 0 301 1352 4.5 9 189.2 24.6 '81 Ottis Anderson, STL 382 1376 3.6 9 191.6 81 24 -0.9 0 2.4 1996 Adrian Murrell, NYJ 301 0 301 1249 4.1 6 160.9 26.9 '97 Adrian Murrell, NYJ 300 1086 3.6 7 150.6 -1 -163 -0.5 1 -10.3 1996 Anthony Johnson, CAR 337 37 300 1120 3.7 6 148.0 29.9 '97 Anthony Johnson, CAR 97 358 3.7 0 35.8 -203 -762 0 -6 -112.2 1998 Antowain Smith, BUF 307 7 300 1124 3.7 8 160.4 27.5 '99 Antowain Smith, BUF 165 614 3.7 6 97.4 -135 -510 0 -2 -63 1993 Leonard Russell, NE 300 0 300 1088 3.6 7 150.8 24.8 '94 Leonard Russell, DEN 190 620 3.3 9 116.0 -110 -468 -0.3 2 -34.8 1997 Adrian Murrell, NYJ 300 0 300 1086 3.6 7 150.6 27.9 '98 Adrian Murrell, ARZ 274 1042 3.8 8 152.2 -26 -44 0.2 1 1.6 300-340 AVG 335 15 320 1334 4.18 9.7 191.8 27.6 300-340 AVG 265 1106 4.17 8.3 160.4 -55.1 -228.1 0.0 -1.4 -31.4 The average includes the follow-up seasons for Jamal Lewis ('00-'01) and Williams Andrews ('83-'84), who both suffered season-ending injuries during the follow-up presason. The average does not include the follow-up season for Garrison Hearst ('98-'99), as Hearst was injured in the playoffs following the '98 season. The average also does not include the follow-up season for Joe Morris ('88-'89), as Morris was released by the Giants prior to spring of '89. What you said about the "5 running backs will fall out of last year's top 10 effect" does apply, somewhat. Runners who carry 300-340 times in the regular season will probably be in top ten too. But the reduction in carries for backs in this range is less than half that of the extreme workload backs (375+ regular season carries). There is no reduction in yards per carry, unlike the extreme workload backs. The reduction in touchdowns is roughly 1/3 when compared to the extreme workload backs: PLAYERS RA RS RYDS RAVG RTD FP RADif RYDif RAVgDif RTDDif FPDif 300-340 AVG FOLLOW-UP 265 1106 4.17 8.3 160.4 -55.1 -228.1 0.0 -1.4 -31.4 375+ AVG FOLLOW-UP 260.8 1052.5 4.04 7.26 148.8 -128 -672 -0.40 -6.79 -107.9 Or, instead of looking at the reductions, look at the total numbers for the average follow-up seasons. The 101 RBs who carried the ball between 300-340 times in the regular season averaged more carries, more yards, more yards per carry, and more touchdowns in their follow-up season than the 20 RBs who carried the ball 375+ times in the regular season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
urmother 0 Posted August 18, 2007 good topic and some really good posts in here. imo, a large part of the dropoff is just natural regression to the mean. all of those 370+ carry seasons were by definition aberrations and you could expect a statistical return to a somewhat more normal load. but without cranking any #'s (the sample size is too small anyway) there does appear to be an increased injury risk following these "heavy load" seasons. from the tone of posters and adp's i'm seeing i'd guess that folks are all over the spectrum from over-valuing this info to under-valuing it. obviously, LJ has issues beyond his # of touches from last season of course. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
t.j 35 Posted August 21, 2007 End-of-holdout bump. The holdout was never the real concern for LJ. Last year's workload was and is. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TD Ryan2 316 Posted August 21, 2007 End-of-holdout bump.The holdout was never the real concern for LJ. Last year's workload was and is. the holdout was the biggest concern for me t.j. SmartassBoiler's post on page 1: Age and career workload up to that point should be considered as well kinda' summed it up for me. I believe there are too many variables to just compare LJs heavy work load season to othere RBs heavy workload season. It's all good information; it's all good to know... but at what point does it become overanalysis? still, fantastic work here. great thread, thank you for putting in all this effort. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
t.j 35 Posted August 21, 2007 SmartassBoiler's post on page 1:Age and career workload up to that point should be considered as well Did you miss the follow-up to that? Based on Boiler's feedback, I added the info for age and career workload at the top of page 2. The data for those factors didn't improve the outlook for LJ: http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...66227&st=40 http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...66227&st=44 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
t.j 35 Posted August 21, 2007 It's all good information; it's all good to know... but at what point does it become overanalysis?still, fantastic work here. great thread, thank you for putting in all this effort. Overanalysis? At fftodayforums.com? Unpossible! Anyway, you're welcome. By the way, the reason I said above that the holdout was not a concern is because the Chiefs GM was saying all along that they wanted to get LJ signed. There was no animosity and there was a lot of negotiations going on... sure, if he was still holding out during the regular season, that would be very bad, but there was not much reason to worry that it might happen. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
De Novo 0 Posted August 21, 2007 I already have the data for backs that carried 300+ times in the regular season. (I don't have the follow-up-season data for guys that combined in the reg season/playoffs for 300+.) Here you go: The average includes the follow-up seasons for Jamal Lewis ('00-'01) and Williams Andrews ('83-'84), who both suffered season-ending injuries during the follow-up presason. The average does not include the follow-up season for Garrison Hearst ('98-'99), as Hearst was injured in the playoffs following the '98 season. The average also does not include the follow-up season for Joe Morris ('88-'89), as Morris was released by the Giants prior to spring of '89. What you said about the "5 running backs will fall out of last year's top 10 effect" does apply, somewhat. Runners who carry 300-340 times in the regular season will probably be in top ten too. But the reduction in carries for backs in this range is less than half that of the extreme workload backs (375+ regular season carries). There is no reduction in yards per carry, unlike the extreme workload backs. The reduction in touchdowns is roughly 1/3 when compared to the extreme workload backs: PLAYERS RA RS RYDS RAVG RTD FP RADif RYDif RAVgDif RTDDif FPDif 300-340 AVG FOLLOW-UP 265 1106 4.17 8.3 160.4 -55.1 -228.1 0.0 -1.4 -31.4 375+ AVG FOLLOW-UP 260.8 1052.5 4.04 7.26 148.8 -128 -672 -0.40 -6.79 -107.9 Or, instead of looking at the reductions, look at the total numbers for the average follow-up seasons. The 101 RBs who carried the ball between 300-340 times in the regular season averaged more carries, more yards, more yards per carry, and more touchdowns in their follow-up season than the 20 RBs who carried the ball 375+ times in the regular season. t.j., didn't see this earlier. Thanks for putting this together. While I expected the decline, I didn't expect the 300-340 group to exceed the 375 group. Granted, the difference is not huge in isolation, it certainly lends credence to the notion that the relationship between "abnormal" carries and the decline is causal. LJ has a few things going for him though--he's 27, he hasn't taken a pounding for that long (and I know the data says it kinda doesn't matter), and he sat out training camp and preseason. I still have him for 1700 total yards and 13 TDs, and if he doesn't miss games I think he probably exceeds those TD numbers. With that said, I'd still draft Gore and Addai before him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bno70_1 0 Posted August 21, 2007 I'll make it a little easier for all of you. A guy who has repeatedly and without fail scored 19 Td's every year has a much better chance of scoring 15+ Td's than a couple guys who have yet to score more than 9. HTH Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Franknbeans 46 Posted August 22, 2007 hahaha, has anyone told you that you look exactly like Ethan Suplee? I prefer Charlie Brown Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,687 Posted August 22, 2007 I'll make it a little easier for all of you.A guy who has repeatedly and without fail scored 19 Td's every year has a much better chance of scoring 15+ Td's than a couple guys who have yet to score more than 9. HTH What if the guy who scored 15 died during the offseason? Who would have a better chance then? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cmh6476 1,025 Posted August 22, 2007 lj was never really overworked except for last year Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NAn 39 Posted August 22, 2007 I'll make it a little easier for all of you.A guy who has repeatedly and without fail scored 19 Td's every year has a much better chance of scoring 15+ Td's than a couple guys who have yet to score more than 9. HTH And by 'repeatedly and without fail every year' you mean TWICE. And so according to your 'formula' above, last year Alexander had better opportunity to score 15+tds than Parker and SJax. How'd that work out again? Past performance is just one of many predictors of future peformance. HTH Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bno70_1 0 Posted August 22, 2007 And by 'repeatedly and without fail every year' you mean TWICE. And so according to your 'formula' above, last year Alexander had better opportunity to score 15+tds than Parker and SJax. How'd that work out again? Past performance is just one of many predictors of future peformance. HTH Actually, to answer your question, YES. The three guys with a history of scoring more than 18ish Td's were LJ, SA, and LT2. The succes rate last season for those three was 67%. That's a TON better succes rate than any other 3 guys you can mention. You have to play your best odds and hope you don't get burned by a freak injury like SA last year. The best odds this year include LJ again. You think you can predict an injury based on some magical number of carries, well I think that it's a lot safer to predict 18 Td's based on past performance. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
t.j 35 Posted August 22, 2007 Actually, to answer your question, YES. The three guys with a history of scoring more than 18ish Td's were LJ, SA, and LT2. The succes rate last season for those three was 67%. That's a TON better succes rate than any other 3 guys you can mention. You have to play your best odds and hope you don't get burned by a freak injury like SA last year. The best odds this year include LJ again. You think you can predict an injury based on some magical number of carries, well I think that it's a lot safer to predict 18 Td's based on past performance. Three guys? Talk about a small sample size. And guess what? The 2 who did it again were the ones who weren't coming off an extreme workload, and the 1 who didn't do it again was the one who was coming off an extreme workload. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
