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t.j

The Larry Johnson 416 carries debate

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SCOOTER

Dammit Scooter...I knew those analogies would be ripped apart and of course by you.

 

As you have through this thread, you articulated your arguements and counter arguements very well.

 

Normally I'd say agree to disagree, but this thread continues to renew the debate, so I say we just keep going to someone drops...like LJ will in week3. :rolleyes:

 

Sure, might as well beat this dead horse until the ground gets tired from the pounding. :dunno:

 

Hey, I'm not arguing just to argue - you & tj have both convinced me that there's a lot more risk than I wanted to admit...but it wouldn't stop be from drafting LJ.

 

From reading Herm's comments, it sounds like the Chiefs will be using a 2-back system, with a 3rd back in there from time to time. He said ideally LJ would get 20-25 carries a game.

 

Now, whether this manifests in reality is another story - he is Herm Edwards, after all and thus cannot be trusted. But if the following happens, I could see LJ having an even less likely better season.

 

IF he's not overused

IF the Chiefs balance the offense with some semblance of a receiving game

IF the Chiefs address the O-Line

IF the Chiefs settle the Trent Green mess at QB

 

Then LJ could have fewer carries, be more effective with the carries he gets, and score more TDs.

 

Assuming the receptions would stay comparable, you'd be looking at a top 3 RB.

 

But it's a stretch to assume that all of those things will happen.

 

I project LJ somewhere around 10% dropoff from last year's numbers. I'd take him top 5 because I think he'll be a durable, steady producer good for 1 TD and at least 80 yards rushing per game. Ironic though that his durability is the primary reason so many on the other side of this debate would rather avoid him. :(

 

 

 

 

 

:(

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i don't know about the # of carries considering LJ is so young, it wouldn't deter me from drafting him.

 

however, the fact that roaf and shields are done deters me bigtime. i haven't thought about rankings just yet, but with those two gone, HE GOES WAY DOWN IN MY BOOK.

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This statement above could be attached almost verbatim to Edgerring James prior to the 2001 season, ALSO after a 2000 season where he attained a 400 f/carry season.

 

Guess what happened in that 2001 season?

James went down in game 6 and was lost for the season.

 

Sure, but what does that have to do with workload? Injuries are unpredictable and can happend to any player at any time...

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Sure, but what does that have to do with workload? Injuries are unpredictable and can happend to any player at any time...

 

 

Umm, Edge had a 400 f/carry season ALSO, in 2000 ...then NEXT year he got injured and was lost form 10 games.

So it has to do with workload, as I'm illustrating that Edge hit the benchmark workload, was young, had little 'mileage', had no history of signficant and/or nagging injury...same pts you make for LJ...and Edge got injured and was lost for 10 games?

 

Again, I can't breakdown exactly why this happens after a 370 season (though tj puts forth a hypothesis I've considered and is worth consideration)...only that it happens to a high percentage.

 

And i've been meaning to ask this...why do many ffers consider 'injury history' when drafting players 'if injuries are unpredictable and can happen anytime'?

 

Sounds like, again, I should explain my take...I'm NOT saying DON'T draft LJ period.

I'm saying this data should be ONE of MANY considerations one takes into account when drafting...like a RBs OL, injury history if any, coaching, team, etc.

 

Consider it or not...your choice.

 

But, to just DISCOUNT it PT BLANK, considering the history and consistency of the data, just doesn't make alot of sense to me...but to each his own.

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And i've been meaning to ask this...why do many ffers consider 'injury history' when drafting players 'if injuries are unpredictable and can happen anytime'?

 

 

 

Agree 100%. I see no rhyme or reason for these guys in discounting or not discounting production based on 'Injury risk'

 

bottom line, it happens. and in all likelihood, if it does happen, its due to a freak hit or some other anomoly rather than a calculated deterioration that lands a guy on IR.

 

 

If the guy is carrying a nagging injury into the season, then i can see a concrete reason to discount. or if they are recovering from a substantial injury.

 

But you are taking healthy guys are arbitrarily assigning them a discount, all the while you are drafting DJ 'F-in' Hackett 6 rounds too early.

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all the while you are drafting DJ 'F-in' Hackett 6 rounds too early.

 

Huh?

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Huh?

 

Making the point that medicrity is overhyped, and guys who produce are being phantom-discounted

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Making the point that medicrity is overhyped, and guys who produce are being phantom-discounted

 

Guys like DJ Hackett have absolutely nothing to do with this discussion.

There's nothing phantom about discounting LJ based on last year's workload.

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And i've been meaning to ask this...why do many ffers consider 'injury history' when drafting players 'if injuries are unpredictable and can happen anytime'?

 

 

To me injury history refers to a player returning AFTER a prior injury which makes them more of a risk to get re-injured or that their performance will be hindered in some way b/c of the injury. For example I'm leary of Donovan McNabb b/c he is returning from a MAJOR injury and has failed to play a full season 3 of the last 4 years.

 

Future injuries are unpredictable. All it takes is one bad "McGahee" type hit and thats it. Regardless of your age, wear and tear, etc. Football is a fast, dangerous game.

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For example I'm leary of Donovan McNabb b/c he is returning from a MAJOR injury and has failed to play a full season 3 of the last 4 years.

 

Future injuries are unpredictable. All it takes is one bad "McGahee" type hit and thats it. Regardless of your age, wear and tear, etc. Football is a fast, dangerous game.

 

You don't see the irony of this?

 

First paragraph you say you're leary of a player b/c of past injury.

 

Then next you say future injuries are unpredictable. :mad:

 

If FUTURE injuries are unpredictable then why does his past injury make a difference?

 

What you're actually saying is 'I'm leary of Mcnabb b/c his past injury has me concerned about FUTURE injury'.

 

So, basically you're taking ESTABLISHED information and attaching it to future speculation...I'm sure you wouldn't base you're ENTIRE decision on Mcnabb on this particular information, but it would likely be a FACTOR.

 

How is that any different than taking the data researched by myself/tj and attaching it to future speculation...not our entire decision either, but a FACTOR to consider.

 

OR

 

Are you saying 'The past injuries and/or inability to stay healthy shows a TREND that I would speculate could continue in the FUTURE'?

 

Again, how would that be any different than 'The data/research of heavy workload rbs shows a TREND that I would speculate could continue in the FUTURE'?

 

My pt being...how could you validate one statement but totally discount the other?

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Since the Chiefs line is in issue, I think this is relevant .

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2006.php

 

After several years in the top 5 run lines, pretty much alone in that regard, the Chiefs fell to mid-league last year. Contributing to this was, 1) Roaf's sudden, unanticipated retirement, 2) New line coach, OC and HC, 3) New offensive system. This does not take into account Trent Green's general suckiness.

 

This year they lost Will Shields, possibly the best lineman the team has ever had, and one of the best OG the NFL has ever had. That being said, this is not like Roaf, who left right before camp. The team has been expecting Shields to announce, and as much as can be, they are prepared. While he was still an excellent player, he was Plus the staff and system has been in place a whole season.

 

In any event, I see no reason to assume that the O-line play in KC will be any worse than last year. In fact, when you consider LJ's splits, it may be noticably better than last year.

 

J

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Carl peterson was asked off the air what he thougth about it, and he said 416 carries was just crazy. They are going to do everything they can to limit his workload and have some of the others (Bennett, Smith, Priest, etc.) to take some of the workload off LJ's shoulders

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Guest JahRasta311
Carl peterson was asked off the air what he thougth about it, and he said 416 carries was just crazy. They are going to do everything they can to limit his workload and have some of the others (Bennett, Smith, Priest, etc.) to take some of the workload off LJ's shoulders

why do you feel the need to bump even more of these topics?

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why do you feel the need to bump even more of these topics?

 

 

I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd.

 

as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo

 

:cheers:

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Guest JahRasta311
I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd.

 

as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo

 

:cheers:

hahaha, has anyone told you that you look exactly like Ethan Suplee?

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I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd.

 

as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo

 

:banana:

 

:shocking:

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Guest tiki_gods
I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd.

 

as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo

 

:banana:

 

:shocking:

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Carl peterson was asked off the air what he thougth about it, and he said 416 carries was just crazy.

 

It most certainly is.

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I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd.

 

as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo

 

:banana:

 

:shocking:

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Carl peterson was asked off the air what he thougth about it, and he said 416 carries was just crazy. They are going to do everything they can to limit his workload and have some of the others (Bennett, Smith, Priest, etc.) to take some of the workload off LJ's shoulders

I'll have to see it to believe it, with that self-serving ######, Herm "RB Killer" Edwards as the coach. Hopefully it proves true.

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I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd.

 

as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo

 

:lol:

 

:thumbsup:

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I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd.

 

as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo

 

:pointstosky:

 

:wacko:

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Guest _my_2_cents_

another example of a great debate that degenerated into a pissing contest of epic proportion. Sad. :dunno:

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I will not respond to anything you post ever again, after you harrassed and insulted my good friend todd.

 

as far as I am concerned, you are dead to me homo

 

:wave:

<_<

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I think one piece of analysis that might "confirm" (or diminish) a causal relationship here is looking at backs with carries between, say 300-340. I think part of the issue may be that, hey, if a guy wasn't tearing it up he probably wouldn't be getting 370 carries. To a lesser extent, the same directionally applies to guys in the 300-340 range. Given that a player was playing well enough to get the rock 300 or more times, it's statistically likely that he will have fewer carries (and probably less production) the following year. I guess what I'm trying to normalize for the "5 running backs will fall out of last year's top 10" effect. Well, of course, statistically they're more likely to go down than up. If the data looks similar for the 300-340 group, I'd be less nervous about drafting LJ. I suspect it's not as bad, but still pretty bad. t.j., how long do you think that would take using your method?

 

I remain convinced that LJ will exceed his performance last year or fall waaaay short. I believe the former, but the numbers as presented indicate the latter is about 10x as likely.

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I think one piece of analysis that might "confirm" (or diminish) a causal relationship here is looking at backs with carries between, say 300-340. I think part of the issue may be that, hey, if a guy wasn't tearing it up he probably wouldn't be getting 370 carries. To a lesser extent, the same directionally applies to guys in the 300-340 range. Given that a player was playing well enough to get the rock 300 or more times, it's statistically likely that he will have fewer carries (and probably less production) the following year. I guess what I'm trying to normalize for the "5 running backs will fall out of last year's top 10" effect. Well, of course, statistically they're more likely to go down than up. If the data looks similar for the 300-340 group, I'd be less nervous about drafting LJ. I suspect it's not as bad, but still pretty bad. t.j., how long do you think that would take using your method?

 

I already have the data for backs that carried 300+ times in the regular season. (I don't have the follow-up-season data for guys that combined in the reg season/playoffs for 300+.)

 

Here you go:

 

YEAR	PLAYER				  RA 	RA 	RA 	RYD 	YPC	TD	RFP	  Age
							All	P	  RS 
'YR	 PLAYER								RA 	RYD 	YPC	TD	RFP	  RA RS	RYD 	YPC 	TD	  FP
							   	   	RS			   	   		 	 Diff	Diff	Diff	Diff	Diff
2001	Corey Dillon, CIN	   340	0	  340	1315	3.9	10	191.5	27.9
'02 	Corey Dillon, CIN				 	314	1311	4.2	7 	173.1	  -26	-4	  0.3	-3	-18.4
2004	L. Tomlinson, SD		365	26 	339	1335	3.9	17	235.5	26.2
'05 	L. Tomlinson, SD		   	   	339	1462	4.3	18	254.2		0	127 	0.4	1	18.7
2001	L. Tomlinson, SD		339	0	  339	1236	3.6	10	183.6	23.2
'02 	L. Tomlinson, SD		   	   	372	1683	4.5	14	252.3	   33	447 	0.9	4	68.7
2005	L. Tomlinson, SD		339	0	  339	1462	4.3	18	254.2	27.2
'06 	L. Tomlinson, SD		   	   	348	1815	5.2	28	349.5		9	353 	0.9	10	95.3
1981	Walter Payton, CHI	  339	0	  339	1222	3.6	6 	158.2	28.1
'82 	Walter Payton, CHI		 	   	148	596 	4.0	1 	 65.6	 -191	-626	0.4	-5	-92.6
2000	James Stewart, DET	  339	0	  339	1184	3.5	10	178.4	29.7
'01 	James Stewart, DET		 	   	143	685 	4.8	1 	 74.5	 -196	-499	1.3	-9	-103.9
1979	W. Montgomery, PHI	  377	39 	338	1512	4.5	9 	205.2	26.0
'80 	W. Montgomery, PHI		 	   	193	778 	4.0	8 	125.8	 -145	-734	-0.5	-1	-79.4
1995	Terry Allen, WAS		338	0	  338	1309	3.9	10	190.9	28.5
'96 	Terry Allen, WAS		   	   	347	1353	3.9	21	261.3		9	44	  0	11	70.4
1995	Ricky Watters, PHI	  368	31 	337	1273	3.8	11	193.3	27.4
'96 	Ricky Watters, PHI		 	   	353	1411	4.0	13	219.1	   16	138 	0.2	2	25.8
2005	Rudi Johnson, CIN	   350	13 	337	1458	4.3	12	217.8	26.9
'06 	Rudi Johnson, CIN				 	341	1309	3.8	12	202.9		4	-149	-0.5	0	-14.9
2005	Larry Johnson, KC	   336	0	  336	1750	5.2	20	295.0	26.8
'06 	Larry Johnson					 	416	1789	4.3	17	280.9	   80	39	  -0.9	-3	-14.1
1983	Curt Warner, SEA		387	52 	335	1449	4.3	13	222.9	23.5
'84 	Curt Warner, SEA		   	   	10 	40	  4.0	0 	  4.0	 -325	-1409	-0.3	-13	-218.9
1997	Barry Sanders, DET	  353	18 	335	2053	6.1	11	271.3	30.1
'98 	Barry Sanders, DET		 	   	343	1491	4.3	4 	173.1		8	-562 	-1.8	-7	-98.2
1996	Eddie George, HOU	   335	0	  335	1368	4.1	8 	184.8	23.9
'97 	Eddie George, TEN				 	357	1399	3.9	6 	175.9	   22	31	  -0.2	-2	-8.9
2004	Edgerrin James, IND	 352	18 	334	1548	4.6	9 	208.8	27.1
'05 	Edgerrin James, IND			   	360	1506	4.2	13	228.6	   26	-42	  -0.4	4	19.8
1995	Errict Rhett, TB		334	0	  334	1207	3.6	11	186.7	25.7
'96 	Errict Rhett, TB		   	   	176	539 	3.1	3 	 71.9	 -158	-668	-0.5	-8	-114.8
2001	Curtis Martin, NYJ	  349	16 	333	1513	4.5	10	211.3	29.3
'02 	Curtis Martin, NYJ		 	   	261	1094	4.2	7 	151.4	  -72	-419	-0.3	-3	-59.9
1978	Walter Payton, CHI	  333	0	  333	1395	4.2	11	205.5	25.1
'79 	Walter Payton, CHI		 	   	369	1610	4.4	14	245.0	   36	215 	0.2	3	39.5
1994	Chris Warren, SEA	   333	0	  333	1545	4.6	9 	208.5	27.6
'95 	Chris Warren, SEA				 	310	1346	4.3	15	224.6	  -23	-199	-0.3	6	16.1
2000	Stephen Davis, WAS	  332	0	  332	1318	4.0	11	197.8	27.5
'01 	Stephen Davis, WAS		 	   	356	1432	4.0	5 	173.2	   24	114 	0	-6	-24.6
1994	Barry Sanders, DET	  344	13 	331	1883	5.7	7 	230.3	27.1
'95 	Barry Sanders, DET		 	   	314	1500	4.8	11	216.0	  -17	-383	-0.9	4	-14.3
1979	Ottis Anderson, STL	 331	0	  331	1605	4.8	8 	208.5	23.6
'80 	Ottis Anderson, STL			   	301	1352	4.5	9 	189.2	  -30	-253	-0.3	1	-19.3
2003	Travis Henry, BUF	   331	0	  331	1356	4.1	10	195.6	25.8
'04 	Travis Henry, BUF				 	94 	326 	3.5	0 	 32.6	 -237	-1030	-0.6	-10	-163
1983	William Andrews, ATL	331	0	  331	1567	4.7	7 	198.7	28.7
'84 	William Andrews, ATL	   	   	0	  0   	0.0	0 	  0.0	 -331	-1567	-4.7	-7	-198.7
1997	Dorsey Levens, GB	   400	71 	329	1435	4.4	7 	185.5	28.3
'98 	Dorsey Levens, GB				 	115	378 	3.3	1 	 43.8	 -214	-1057	-1.1	-6	-141.7
1999	Emmitt Smith, DAL	   344	15 	329	1397	4.2	11	205.7	31.3
'00 	Emmitt Smith, DAL				 	294	1203	4.1	9 	174.3	  -35	-194	-0.1	-2	-31.4
1981	Ottis Anderson, STL	 328	0	  328	1376	4.2	9 	191.6	25.6
'82 	Ottis Anderson, STL			   	145	587 	4.0	3 	 76.7	 -183	-789	-0.2	-6	-114.9
1996	Emmitt Smith, DAL	   366	39 	327	1204	3.7	12	192.4	28.3
'97 	Emmitt Smith, DAL				 	261	1074	4.1	4 	131.4	  -66	-130	0.4	-8	-61
1994	Rodney Hampton, NYG	 327	0	  327	1075	3.3	6 	143.5	26.4
'95 	Rodney Hampton, NYG			   	306	1182	3.9	10	178.2	  -21	107 	0.6	4	34.7
2001	Priest Holmes, KC	   327	0	  327	1555	4.8	8 	203.5	28.9
'02 	Priest Holmes, KC				 	313	1615	5.2	21	287.5	  -14	60	  0.4	13	84
1984	John Riggins, WAS	   348	21 	327	1239	3.8	14	207.9	36.1
'85 	John Riggins, WAS				 	176	667 	3.8	8 	114.7	 -151	-572	0	-6	-93.2
2003	Shaun Alexander, SEA	346	20 	326	1435	4.4	14	227.5	27.0
'04 	Shaun Alexander, SEA	   	   	353	1696	4.8	16	265.6	   27	261 	0.4	2	38.1
1989	Ottis Anderson, NYG	 349	24 	325	1023	3.1	14	186.3	33.6
'90 	Ottis Anderson, NYG			   	225	784 	3.5	11	144.4	 -100	-239	0.4	-3	-41.9
1999	Ricky Watters, SEA	  344	19 	325	1210	3.7	5 	151.0	31.4
'00 	Ricky Watters, SEA		 	   	278	1242	4.5	7 	166.2	  -47	32	  0.8	2	15.2
2002	Deuce McAllister, NO	325	0	  325	1388	4.3	13	216.8	24.7
'03 	Deuce McAllister, NO	   	   	351	1641	4.7	8 	212.1	   26	253 	0.4	-5	-4.7
2002	Travis Henry, BUF	   325	0	  325	1438	4.4	13	221.8	24.8
'03 	Travis Henry, BUF				 	331	1356	4.1	10	195.6		6	-82 	-0.3	-3	-26.2
2005	Willis McGahee, BUF	 325	0	  325	1247	3.8	5 	154.7	24.9
'06 	Willis McGahee, BUF			   	259	990 	3.8	6 	135.0	  -66	-257	0	1	-19.7
1999	Duce Staley, PHI		325	0	  325	1273	3.9	4 	151.3	25.5
'00 	Duce Staley, PHI		   	   	79 	344 	4.4	1 	 40.4	 -246	-929	0.5	-3	-110.9
1985	Walter Payton, CHI	  391	67 	324	1551	4.8	9 	209.1	32.1
'86 	Walter Payton, CHI		 	   	321	1333	4.2	8 	181.3	   -3	-218	-0.6	-1	-27.8
1998	Marshall Faulk, IND	 324	0	  324	1319	4.1	6 	167.9	26.5
'99 	Marshall Faulk, STL			   	253	1381	5.5	7 	180.1	  -71	62	  1.4	1	12.2
1987	Charles White, LAM	  324	0	  324	1374	4.2	11	203.4	30.6
'88 	Charles White, LAM		 	   	88 	323 	3.7	0 	 32.3	 -236	-1051	-0.5	-11	-171.1
2003	Curtis Martin, NYJ	  323	0	  323	1308	4.0	2 	142.8	31.3
'04 	Curtis Martin, NYJ		 	   	371	1697	4.6	12	241.7	   48	389 	0.6	10	98.9
1983	Earl Campbell, HOU	  322	0	  322	1301	4.0	12	202.1	29.4
'84 	Earl Campbell, HOU/NO			 	146	468 	3.2	4 	 70.8	 -176	-833	-0.8	-8	-131.3
2004	Tiki Barber, NYG		322	0	  322	1518	4.7	13	229.8	30.4
'05 	Tiki Barber, NYG		   	   	357	1860	5.2	9 	240.0	   35	342 	0.5	-4	10.2
1986	Walter Payton, CHI	  335	14 	321	1333	4.2	8 	181.3	33.1
'87 	Walter Payton, CHI		 	   	146	533 	3.7	4 	 77.3	 -175	-800	-0.5	-4	-104
1999	Eddie George, TEN	   428	108	320	1304	4.1	9 	184.4	26.9
'00 	Eddie George, TEN				 	403	1509	3.7	14	234.9	   83	205 	-0.4	5	50.5
1996	Jerome Bettis, PIT	  358	38 	320	1431	4.5	11	209.1	25.5
'97 	Jerome Bettis, PIT		 	   	375	1665	4.4	7 	208.5	   55	234 	-0.1	-4	-0.6
2003	Priest Holmes, KC	   344	24 	320	1420	4.4	27	304.0	30.9
'04 	Priest Holmes, KC				 	196	892 	4.6	14	173.2	 -124	-528	0.2	-13	-130.8
1998	Emmitt Smith, DAL	   335	16 	319	1332	4.2	13	211.2	30.3
'99 	Emmitt Smith, DAL				 	329	1397	4.2	11	205.7	   10	65	  0	-2	-5.5
1994	Jerome Bettis, LAM	  319	0	  319	1025	3.2	3 	120.5	23.5
'95 	Jerome Bettis, STL		 	   	183	637 	3.5	3 	 81.7	 -136	-388	0.3	0	-38.8
1986	Curt Warner, SEA		319	0	  319	1481	4.6	13	226.1	26.5
'87 	Curt Warner, SEA		   	   	234	985 	4.2	8 	146.5	  -85	-496	-0.4	-5	-79.6
1998	Ricky Watters, SEA	  319	0	  319	1239	3.9	9 	177.9	30.4
'99 	Ricky Watters, SEA		 	   	325	1210	3.7	5 	151.0		6	-29 	-0.2	-4	-26.9
2003	Stephen Davis, CAR	  382	64 	318	1444	4.5	8 	192.4	30.5
'04 	Stephen Davis, WAS		 	   	24 	92	  3.8	0 	  9.2	 -294	-1352	-0.7	-8	-183.2
1980	Walter Payton, CHI	  317	0	  317	1460	4.6	6 	182.0	27.1
'81 	Walter Payton, CHI		 	   	339	1222	3.6	6 	158.2	   22	-238	-1	0	-23.8
1995	Edgar Bennett, GB	   372	56 	316	1067	3.4	3 	124.7	27.5
'96 	Edgar Bennett, GB				 	222	899 	4.0	2 	101.9	  -94	-168	0.6	-1	-22.8
1996	Curtis Martin, NE	   365	49 	316	1152	3.6	14	199.2	24.3
'97 	Curtis Martin, NE				 	274	1160	4.2	4 	140.0	  -42	8   	0.6	-10	-59.2
1998	Jerome Bettis, PIT	  316	0	  316	1185	3.8	3 	136.5	27.5
'99 	Jerome Bettis, PIT		 	   	299	1091	3.6	7 	151.1	  -17	-94 	-0.2	4	14.6
2000	Curtis Martin, NYJ	  316	0	  316	1204	3.8	9 	174.4	28.3
'01 	Curtis Martin, NYJ		 	   	333	1513	4.5	10	211.3	   17	309	0.7	1	36.9
2000	Corey Dillon, CIN	   315	0	  315	1435	4.6	7 	185.5	26.9
'01 	Corey Dillon, CIN				 	340	1315	3.9	10	191.5	   25	-120	-0.7	3	6
2001	Eddie George, TEN	   315	0	  315	939 	3.0	5 	123.9	28.9
'02 	Eddie George, TEN				 	343	1165	3.4	12	188.5	   28	226 	0.4	7	64.6
2005	Thomas Jones, CHI	   334	20 	314	1335	4.3	9 	187.5	28.0
'06 	Thomas Jones, CHI				 	296	1210	4.1	6 	157.0	  -18	-125	-0.2	-3	-30.5
1995	Barry Sanders, DET	  324	10 	314	1500	4.8	11	216.0	28.1
'96 	Barry Sanders, DET		 	   	307	1553	5.1	11	221.3	   -7	53	  0.3	0	5.3
1994	Marshall Faulk, IND	 314	0	  314	1282	4.1	11	194.2	22.5
'95 	Marshall Faulk, IND			   	289	1078	3.7	11	173.8	  -25	-204	-0.4	0	-20.4
2002	Corey Dillon, CIN	   314	0	  314	1311	4.2	7 	173.1	28.9
'03 	Corey Dillon, CIN				 	138	541 	3.9	2 	 66.1	 -176	-770	-0.3	-5	-107
1989	Eric Dickerson, IND	 314	0	  314	1311	4.2	7 	173.1	30.0
'90 	Eric Dickerson, IND			   	166	677 	4.1	4 	 91.7	 -148	-634	-0.1	-3	-81.4
1983	Walter Payton, CHI	  314	0	  314	1421	4.5	6 	178.1	30.1
'84 	Walter Payton, CHI		 	   	381	1684	4.4	11	234.4	   67	263 	-0.1	5	56.3
2001	Lamar Smith, MIA		319	6	  313	968 	3.1	6 	132.8	31.8
'02 	Lamar Smith, CAR		   	   	209	737 	3.5	7 	115.7	 -104	-231	0.4	1	-17.1
2003	L. Tomlinson, SD		313	0	  313	1645	5.3	13	242.5	25.2
'04 	L. Tomlinson, SD		   	   	339	1335	3.9	17	235.5	   26	-310	-1.4	4	-7
2001	Ricky Williams, NO	  313	0	  313	1245	4.0	6 	160.5	25.3
'02 	Ricky Williams, MIA			   	383	1853	4.8	16	281.3	   70	608 	0.8	10	120.8
1980	Billy Sims, DET		 313	0	  313	1303	4.2	13	208.3	26.0
'81 	Billy Sims, DET				   	296	1437	4.9	13	221.7	  -17	134 	0.7	0	13.4
2002	Priest Holmes, KC	   313	0	  313	1615	5.2	21	287.5	29.9
'03 	Priest Holmes, KC				 	320	1420	4.4	27	304.0		7	-195	-0.8	6	16.5
1992	Thurman Thomas, BUF	 373	61 	312	1487	4.8	9 	202.7	27.3
'93 	Thurman Thomas, BUF			   	355	1315	3.7	6 	167.5	   43	-172	-1.1	-3	-35.2
2003	Eddie George, TEN	   353	41 	312	1031	3.3	5 	133.1	30.9
'04 	Eddie George, DAL				 	132	432 	3.3	4 	 67.2	 -180	-599	0	-1	-65.9
1992	Barry Sanders, DET	  312	0	  312	1352	4.3	9 	189.2	25.1
'93 	Barry Sanders, DET		 	   	243	1115	4.6	3 	129.5	  -69	-237	0.3	-6	-59.7
1988	Roger Craig, SF		 366	56 	310	1502	4.8	9 	204.2	29.1
'89 	Roger Craig, SF				   	271	1054	3.9	6 	141.4	  -39	-448	-0.9	-3	-62.8
1978	Franco Harris, PIT	  350	40 	310	1082	3.5	8 	156.2	29.5
'79 	Franco Harris, PIT		 	   	267	1186	4.4	11	184.6	  -43	104 	0.9	3	28.4
1998	Garrison Hearst, SF	 333	23 	310	1570	5.1	7 	199.0	28.7
'99 	Garrison Hearst, SF			   	0	  0   	0.0	0 	  0.0	 -310	-1570	-5.1	-7	-199
2003	Edgerrin James, IND	 329	19 	310	1259	4.1	11	191.9	26.1
'04 	Edgerrin James, IND			   	334	1548	4.6	9 	208.8	   24	289 	0.5	-2	16.9
1992	Reggie Cobb, TB		 310	0	  310	1171	3.8	9 	171.1	25.2
'93 	Reggie Cobb, TB				   	221	658 	3.0	3 	 83.8	  -89	-513	-0.8	-6	-87.3
1995	Chris Warren, SEA	   310	0	  310	1346	4.3	15	224.6	28.6
'96 	Chris Warren, SEA				 	203	855 	4.2	5 	115.5	 -107	-491	-0.1	-10	-109.1
2000	Jamal Lewis, BAL		412	103	309	1364	4.4	6 	172.4	22.0
'01 	Jamal Lewis, BAL		   	   	0	  0   	0.0	0 	  0.0	 -309	-1364	-4.4	-6	-172.4
2000	Lamar Smith, MIA		357	48 	309	1139	3.7	14	197.9	30.8
'01 	Lamar Smith, MIA		   	   	313	968 	3.1	6 	132.8		4	-171	-0.6	-8	-65.1
2001	Shaun Alexander, SEA	309	0	  309	1318	4.3	14	215.8	25.0
'02 	Shaun Alexander, SEA	   	   	295	1175	4.0	16	213.5	  -14	-143	-0.3	2	-2.3
2005	Reuben Droughns, CLE	309	0	  309	1232	4.0	2 	135.2	28.0
'06 	Reuben Droughns, CLE	   	   	220	758 	3.4	4 	 99.8	  -89	-474	-0.6	2	-35.4
2002	Jamal Lewis, BAL		308	0	  308	1327	4.3	6 	168.7	24.0
'03 	Jamal Lewis, BAL		   	   	387	2066	5.3	14	290.6	   79	739 	1	8	121.9
1996	K. Abdul-Jabbar, MIA	307	0	  307	1116	3.6	11	177.6	23.2
'97 	K. Abdul-Jabbar, MIA	   	   	283	892 	3.2	15	179.2	  -24	-224 	-0.4	4	1.6
1988	Joe Morris, NYG		 307	0	  307	1083	3.5	5 	138.3	29.0
'89 	Joe Morris, NYG				   	0	  0   	0.0	0 	  0.0	 -307	-1083	-3.5	-5	-138.3
1996	Barry Sanders, DET	  307	0	  307	1553	5.1	11	221.3	29.1
'97 	Barry Sanders, DET		 	   	335	2053	6.1	11	271.3	   28	500 	1	0	5
1980	Joe Cribbs, BUF		 322	16 	306	1185	3.9	11	184.5	23.7
'81 	'Joe Cribbs, BUF		   	   	257	1097	4.3	3 	127.7	  -49	-88 	0.4	-8	-56.8
1995	Rodney Hampton, NYG	 306	0	  306	1182	3.9	10	178.2	27.4
'96 	Rodney Hampton, NYG			   	254	827 	3.3	1 	 88.7	  -52	-355	-0.6	-9	-89.5
1985	Tony Dorsett, DAL	   322	17 	305	1307	4.3	7 	172.7	32.4
'86 	Tony Dorsett, DAL				 	184	748 	4.1	5 	104.8	 -121	-559	-0.2	-2	-67.9
2001	Ahman Green, GB		 341	37 	304	1387	4.6	9 	192.7	25.5
'02 	Ahman Green, GB				   	286	1240	4.3	7 	166.0	  -18	-147	-0.3	-2	-26.7
2002	Tiki Barber, NYG		330	26 	304	1387	4.6	11	204.7	28.4
'04 	Tiki Barber, NYG		   	   	322	1518	4.7	13	229.8	   18	131 	0.1	2	25.1
1986	George Rogers, WAS	  369	66 	303	1203	4.0	18	228.3	28.7
'87 	George Rogers, WAS		 	   	163	613 	3.8	6 	 97.3	 -140	-590	-0.2	-12	-131
1978	Earl Campbell, HOU	  377	75 	302	1450	4.8	13	223.0	24.4
'79 	Earl Campbell, HOU		 	   	368	1697	4.6	19	283.7	   66	247 	-0.2	6	60.7
2004	Domanick Davis, HOU	 302	0	  302	1188	3.9	13	196.8	24.9
'05 	Domanick Davis, HOU			   	230	976 	4.2	2 	109.6	  -72	-212	0.3	-11	-87.2
1984	Tony Dorsett, DAL	   302	0	  302	1189	3.9	6 	154.9	31.4
'85 	Tony Dorsett, DAL				 	305	1307	4.3	7 	172.7		3	118 	0.4	1	17.8
1980	Ottis Anderson, STL	 301	0	  301	1352	4.5	9 	189.2	24.6
'81 	Ottis Anderson, STL			   	382	1376	3.6	9 	191.6	   81	24	  -0.9	0	2.4
1996	Adrian Murrell, NYJ	 301	0	  301	1249	4.1	6 	160.9	26.9
'97 	Adrian Murrell, NYJ			   	300	1086	3.6	7 	150.6	   -1	-163	-0.5	1	-10.3
1996	Anthony Johnson, CAR	337	37 	300	1120	3.7	6 	148.0	29.9
'97 	Anthony Johnson, CAR	   	   	97 	358 	3.7	0 	 35.8	 -203	-762	0	-6	-112.2
1998	Antowain Smith, BUF	 307	7	  300	1124	3.7	8 	160.4	27.5
'99 	Antowain Smith, BUF			   	165	614 	3.7	6 	 97.4	 -135	-510	0	-2	-63
1993	Leonard Russell, NE	 300	0	  300	1088	3.6	7 	150.8	24.8
'94 	Leonard Russell, DEN	   	   	190	620 	3.3	9 	116.0	 -110	-468	-0.3	2	-34.8
1997	Adrian Murrell, NYJ	 300	0	  300	1086	3.6	7 	150.6	27.9
'98 	Adrian Murrell, ARZ			   	274	1042	3.8	8 	152.2	  -26	-44 	0.2	1	1.6
	300-340 AVG			 335	15 	320	1334	4.18	9.7	191.8	27.6
	300-340 AVG					   	265	1106	4.17	8.3	160.4	-55.1	-228.1	0.0	-1.4	-31.4

 

The average includes the follow-up seasons for Jamal Lewis ('00-'01) and Williams Andrews ('83-'84), who both suffered season-ending injuries during the follow-up presason.

The average does not include the follow-up season for Garrison Hearst ('98-'99), as Hearst was injured in the playoffs following the '98 season. The average also does not include the follow-up season for Joe Morris ('88-'89), as Morris was released by the Giants prior to spring of '89.

 

What you said about the "5 running backs will fall out of last year's top 10 effect" does apply, somewhat. Runners who carry 300-340 times in the regular season will probably be in top ten too. But the reduction in carries for backs in this range is less than half that of the extreme workload backs (375+ regular season carries). There is no reduction in yards per carry, unlike the extreme workload backs. The reduction in touchdowns is roughly 1/3 when compared to the extreme workload backs:

 

PLAYERS				 RA RS	RYDS	  RAVG RTD 	FP   	RADif   RYDif 	RAVgDif RTDDif  FPDif  
300-340 AVG FOLLOW-UP   265	  1106	  4.17 8.3 	160.4	-55.1	-228.1	0.0	  -1.4	-31.4
375+ AVG FOLLOW-UP	  260.8	1052.5	4.04 7.26	148.8	-128 	-672	  -0.40	-6.79	-107.9

 

Or, instead of looking at the reductions, look at the total numbers for the average follow-up seasons. The 101 RBs who carried the ball between 300-340 times in the regular season averaged more carries, more yards, more yards per carry, and more touchdowns in their follow-up season than the 20 RBs who carried the ball 375+ times in the regular season.

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good topic and some really good posts in here. imo, a large part of the dropoff is just natural regression to the mean. all of those 370+ carry seasons were by definition aberrations and you could expect a statistical return to a somewhat more normal load. but without cranking any #'s (the sample size is too small anyway) there does appear to be an increased injury risk following these "heavy load" seasons.

 

from the tone of posters and adp's i'm seeing i'd guess that folks are all over the spectrum from over-valuing this info to under-valuing it. obviously, LJ has issues beyond his # of touches from last season of course.

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End-of-holdout bump.

The holdout was never the real concern for LJ. Last year's workload was and is.

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End-of-holdout bump.

The holdout was never the real concern for LJ. Last year's workload was and is.

 

 

:shocking:

 

the holdout was the biggest concern for me t.j.

 

 

 

SmartassBoiler's post on page 1:

Age and career workload up to that point should be considered as well

 

kinda' summed it up for me.

I believe there are too many variables to just compare LJs heavy work load season to othere RBs heavy workload season. It's all good information; it's all good to know... but at what point does it become overanalysis?

 

 

 

still, fantastic work here. great thread, thank you for putting in all this effort. :shocking:

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SmartassBoiler's post on page 1:

Age and career workload up to that point should be considered as well

 

Did you miss the follow-up to that? Based on Boiler's feedback, I added the info for age and career workload at the top of page 2. The data for those factors didn't improve the outlook for LJ:

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...66227&st=40

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...66227&st=44

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It's all good information; it's all good to know... but at what point does it become overanalysis?

still, fantastic work here. great thread, thank you for putting in all this effort. :shocking:

 

Overanalysis? At fftodayforums.com? Unpossible! Anyway, you're welcome.

By the way, the reason I said above that the holdout was not a concern is because the Chiefs GM was saying all along that they wanted to get LJ signed. There was no animosity and there was a lot of negotiations going on... sure, if he was still holding out during the regular season, that would be very bad, but there was not much reason to worry that it might happen.

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I already have the data for backs that carried 300+ times in the regular season. (I don't have the follow-up-season data for guys that combined in the reg season/playoffs for 300+.)

 

Here you go:

 

 

The average includes the follow-up seasons for Jamal Lewis ('00-'01) and Williams Andrews ('83-'84), who both suffered season-ending injuries during the follow-up presason.

The average does not include the follow-up season for Garrison Hearst ('98-'99), as Hearst was injured in the playoffs following the '98 season. The average also does not include the follow-up season for Joe Morris ('88-'89), as Morris was released by the Giants prior to spring of '89.

 

What you said about the "5 running backs will fall out of last year's top 10 effect" does apply, somewhat. Runners who carry 300-340 times in the regular season will probably be in top ten too. But the reduction in carries for backs in this range is less than half that of the extreme workload backs (375+ regular season carries). There is no reduction in yards per carry, unlike the extreme workload backs. The reduction in touchdowns is roughly 1/3 when compared to the extreme workload backs:

 

PLAYERS				 RA RS	RYDS	  RAVG RTD 	FP   	RADif   RYDif 	RAVgDif RTDDif  FPDif  
300-340 AVG FOLLOW-UP   265	  1106	  4.17 8.3 	160.4	-55.1	-228.1	0.0	  -1.4	-31.4
375+ AVG FOLLOW-UP	  260.8	1052.5	4.04 7.26	148.8	-128 	-672	  -0.40	-6.79	-107.9

 

Or, instead of looking at the reductions, look at the total numbers for the average follow-up seasons. The 101 RBs who carried the ball between 300-340 times in the regular season averaged more carries, more yards, more yards per carry, and more touchdowns in their follow-up season than the 20 RBs who carried the ball 375+ times in the regular season.

 

t.j., didn't see this earlier. Thanks for putting this together. While I expected the decline, I didn't expect the 300-340 group to exceed the 375 group. Granted, the difference is not huge in isolation, it certainly lends credence to the notion that the relationship between "abnormal" carries and the decline is causal. LJ has a few things going for him though--he's 27, he hasn't taken a pounding for that long (and I know the data says it kinda doesn't matter), and he sat out training camp and preseason. I still have him for 1700 total yards and 13 TDs, and if he doesn't miss games I think he probably exceeds those TD numbers. With that said, I'd still draft Gore and Addai before him.

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I'll make it a little easier for all of you.

A guy who has repeatedly and without fail scored 19 Td's every year has a much better chance of scoring 15+ Td's than a couple guys who have yet to score more than 9.

 

HTH

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hahaha, has anyone told you that you look exactly like Ethan Suplee?

I prefer Charlie Brown

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I'll make it a little easier for all of you.

A guy who has repeatedly and without fail scored 19 Td's every year has a much better chance of scoring 15+ Td's than a couple guys who have yet to score more than 9.

 

HTH

 

 

What if the guy who scored 15 died during the offseason? Who would have a better chance then?

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lj was never really overworked except for last year

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I'll make it a little easier for all of you.

A guy who has repeatedly and without fail scored 19 Td's every year has a much better chance of scoring 15+ Td's than a couple guys who have yet to score more than 9.

 

HTH

 

And by 'repeatedly and without fail every year' you mean TWICE.

 

And so according to your 'formula' above, last year Alexander had better opportunity to score 15+tds than Parker and SJax.

 

How'd that work out again?

 

Past performance is just one of many predictors of future peformance.

 

HTH

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And by 'repeatedly and without fail every year' you mean TWICE.

 

And so according to your 'formula' above, last year Alexander had better opportunity to score 15+tds than Parker and SJax.

 

How'd that work out again?

 

Past performance is just one of many predictors of future peformance.

 

HTH

Actually, to answer your question, YES. The three guys with a history of scoring more than 18ish Td's were LJ, SA, and LT2. The succes rate last season for those three was 67%. That's a TON better succes rate than any other 3 guys you can mention. You have to play your best odds and hope you don't get burned by a freak injury like SA last year. The best odds this year include LJ again. You think you can predict an injury based on some magical number of carries, well I think that it's a lot safer to predict 18 Td's based on past performance.

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Actually, to answer your question, YES. The three guys with a history of scoring more than 18ish Td's were LJ, SA, and LT2. The succes rate last season for those three was 67%. That's a TON better succes rate than any other 3 guys you can mention. You have to play your best odds and hope you don't get burned by a freak injury like SA last year. The best odds this year include LJ again. You think you can predict an injury based on some magical number of carries, well I think that it's a lot safer to predict 18 Td's based on past performance.

 

Three guys? Talk about a small sample size. And guess what? The 2 who did it again were the ones who weren't coming off an extreme workload, and the 1 who didn't do it again was the one who was coming off an extreme workload.

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