t.j 35 Posted March 12, 2007 Not counting the play-in game, which is a different thread. Thursday's schedule: 12:20 PM ET No. 13 Davidson at No. 4 Maryland 12:25 PM ET No. 10 Texas Tech at No. 7 Boston College 12:40 PM ET No. 11 Stanford at No. 6 Louisville 2:40 PM ET No. 14 Oral Roberts at No. 3 Washington State 2:50 PM ET No. 12 Old Dominion at No. 5 Butler 2:55 PM ET No. 15 Belmont at No. 2 Georgetown 3:10 PM ET No. 14 Pennsylvania at No. 3 Texas A&M 5:10 PM ET No. 11 George Washington at No. 6 Vanderbilt 7:10 PM ET No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth at No. 6 Duke 7:10 PM ET No. 16 Central Connecticut State at No. 1 Ohio State 7:20 PM ET No. 9 Michigan State at No. 8 Marquette 7:25 PM ET No. 15 Weber State at No. 2 UCLA 9:40 PM ET No. 14 Wright State at No. 3 Pittsburgh 9:40 PM ET No. 16 Eastern Kentucky at No. 1 North Carolina 9:40 PM ET No. 9 Xavier at No. 8 Brigham Young 9:55 PM ET No. 10 Gonzaga at No. 7 Indiana I like Old Dominion to keep the proud tradition of 12 seed upsets alive against Butler! Got a wild hunch Penn upsets A&M, too. I doubt they can pull it off but I'll be pulling for Weber (Big Sky rep)! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JT 137 Posted March 12, 2007 Never mind the play-in game. But feel free to discuss the play-in game here if you want. Thursday's schedule: 12:20 PM ET No. 13 Davidson at No. 4 Maryland 12:25 PM ET No. 10 Texas Tech at No. 7 Boston College 12:40 PM ET No. 11 Stanford at No. 6 Louisville 2:40 PM ET No. 14 Oral Roberts at No. 3 Washington State 2:50 PM ET No. 12 Old Dominion at No. 5 Butler 2:55 PM ET No. 15 Belmont at No. 2 Georgetown 3:10 PM ET No. 14 Pennsylvania at No. 3 Texas A&M 5:10 PM ET No. 11 George Washington at No. 6 Vanderbilt 7:10 PM ET No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth at No. 6 Duke 7:10 PM ET No. 16 Central Connecticut State at No. 1 Ohio State 7:20 PM ET No. 9 Michigan State at No. 8 Marquette 7:25 PM ET No. 15 Weber State at No. 2 UCLA 9:40 PM ET No. 14 Wright State at No. 3 Pittsburgh 9:40 PM ET No. 16 Eastern Kentucky at No. 1 North Carolina 9:40 PM ET No. 9 Xavier at No. 8 Brigham Young 9:55 PM ET No. 10 Gonzaga at No. 7 Indiana I like Old Dominion to keep the proud tradition of 12 seed upsets alive against Butler! Got a wild hunch Penn upsets A&M, too. I doubt they can pull it off but I'll be pulling for Weber (Big Sky rep)! A&M's too solid to lose to somebody like Penn. Heavy favorites (meaning a 4 or higher; 5-12 games are no longer upsets) that lose first round games tend to be one dimensional (either all offense or all defense), teams with inexperienced PG's, or teams that don't have a true "go to" guy when they need points. A&M has those covered. I'm looking for the power conference also-ran that will make a run. Seems to be one each year. I don't see one in these matchups. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
t.j 35 Posted March 12, 2007 A&M's too solid to lose to somebody like Penn. Heavy favorites (meaning a 4 or higher; 5-12 games are no longer upsets) that lose first round games tend to be one dimensional (either all offense or all defense), teams with inexperienced PG's, or teams that don't have a true "go to" guy when they need points. A&M has those covered. I'm looking for the power conference also-ran that will make a run. Seems to be one each year. I don't see one in these matchups. Yeah, I don't really have a reason for picking Penn. But, I have Louisville beating the Penn/A&M winner regardless with the games being played in Lexington. Upset or not, I love Old Dominion's chances. Butler strikes me as a classic team getting too high of a seed based on recent tourney success, whereas ODU is hot hot hot and is the bubble "in" decision from the committee that I really like. What do you think about Michigan State as a potential conference also-ran to make a run? They've got the hero type guy in Neitzel. Obviously they have a tough round 2 with OSU but other than that their path is doable. Duke seems like a conference also-ran who could make a run too. I didn't have them going anywhere in my bracket because I think they will be a popular pick based on their name. But they do have the #15 RPI and Coach K's tournament experience, so I wouldn't be surprised if they muddled what to me is an unpredictable West region. On the other hand, VCU would be everyone's favorite Cinderella if they took Duke down! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 555 Posted March 12, 2007 Did you guys see Dell Curry's son play for Davidson during Championship Week? Man, he plays just like his father....shot looks identical.....good looking young player. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JT 137 Posted March 12, 2007 Yeah, I don't really have a reason for picking Penn. But, I have Louisville beating the Penn/A&M winner regardless with the games being played in Lexington. Upset or not, I love Old Dominion's chances. Butler strikes me as a classic team getting too high of a seed based on recent tourney success, whereas ODU is hot hot hot and is the bubble "in" decision from the committee that I really like. What do you think about Michigan State as a potential conference also-ran to make a run? They've got the hero type guy in Neitzel. Obviously they have a tough round 2 with OSU but other than that their path is doable. Duke seems like a conference also-ran who could make a run too. I didn't have them going anywhere in my bracket because I think they will be a popular pick based on their name. But they do have the #15 RPI and Coach K's tournament experience, so I wouldn't be surprised if they muddled what to me is an unpredictable West region. On the other hand, VCU would be everyone's favorite Cinderella if they took Duke down! SHHHH!!! Don't tell anybody else about Louisville playing in their own backyard. ODU-Butler is a toss up. Butler's probably seeded a little higher than they deserve. ODU is solid. My biggest concern about them is that they've won games simply by wearing teams down; they go deep on their bench. That's not going to be a factor in a 1st round game. Michigan State would have UNC in the 2nd round, I think. That's a coach & players with tourney experience and a bad taste from last year. Marquette hasn't impressed me, but I can't see Mich St winning twice. Duke has made 10 of the last 11 Sweet 16's. This is a young team, without the star power of previous squads, but K knows tourney basketball. They've gotten a good rest, too. I think the winner of that Duke/VCU game could very well beat Pitt. Problem for them is they're still Duke, and it would be the biggest win in VCU history. But the Devils winning two games is like Billy Packer being an a$$hole. It's bound to happen. Did you guys see Dell Curry's son play for Davidson during Championship Week? Man, he plays just like his father....shot looks identical.....good looking young player. He looks to be about 12 years old. Nice player, though. Hard to imagine how the big boys let him get away. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
t.j 35 Posted March 12, 2007 Michigan State would have UNC in the 2nd round, I think. That's a coach & players with tourney experience and a bad taste from last year. Marquette hasn't impressed me, but I can't see Mich St winning twice. Oops my bad, not sure why I was thinking they were in OSU's bracket. I was thinking the conference rivalry angle might help them pull off the round 2 upset, but yeah I don't see them beating UNC. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
iceblumist610 0 Posted March 13, 2007 My upset picks are (in order of craziness, and covering days 1 and 2) Oral over Wazzu Davidson over MD ODU over Butler Arkansas over USC Winthrop over ND Creighton over Nevada Zaga over Indy Nova over UK Xavier over BYU Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
t.j 35 Posted March 13, 2007 My upset picks are (in order of craziness, and covering days 1 and 2)Oral over Wazzu Davidson over MD ODU over Butler Arkansas over USC Winthrop over ND Creighton over Nevada Zaga over Indy Nova over UK Xavier over BYU My day 1 upset picks: Penn over TAM ODU over Butler Gonzaga over Indiana MSU over Marquette Xavier over BYU Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TimmySmith 2,783 Posted March 13, 2007 One must always pick the 10 seeds. Texas Tech looks like a great selection, as does Gonzaga. I would watch Wright State in the big upset category. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JT 137 Posted March 13, 2007 My upset picks are (in order of craziness, and covering days 1 and 2) Oral over Wazzu Davidson over MD ODU over Butler Arkansas over USC Winthrop over ND Creighton over Nevada Zaga over Indy Nova over UK Xavier over BYU History would indicate that you've got about twice as many as will actually occur. For all the talk of upsets, you'd still have done far better each of the last 10 years taking all favorites as opposed to all upsets, and that's without even counting the 1-16 & 2-15 matchups. Oral Roberts. Three time conference player of the year. Two players with over 2000 career points. Beat Kansas. Last year, they were the best looking 16 seed in tourney history. A great pick. Could very well win two games. Davidson, at least statistically, should challenge Maryland. The Terps are shaky on offense and get lots of scoring off the boards. Davidson is #2 nationally in defensive rebounding. But I wonder if Maryland's overall athleticism won't be too much. Everybody's loving ODU, but they're not a very good 3 pt shooting team and I think they'll need to do that well to beat Butler. Arkansas over USC...sure, why not. The tournament wouldn't be lacking a thing if neither of these teams were in. Arkansas at least plays defense. Winthrop another 'sleeper' that everybody's picking. Notre Dame is going to the Sweet 16. Big East teams have to play a variety of styles, and imo are going to do very well in tourney play. Nova, ND, G'Town could all go deep. I don't like Pitt. The rest aren't upsets in my book. 7-10 & 8-9 games are tossups. In fact, I think more 10's & 9's than 7's & 8's have won over the last 5 years. Good luck! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dirty dug 0 Posted March 13, 2007 Arkansas over USC...sure, why not. The tournament wouldn't be lacking a thing if neither of these teams were in. Arkansas at least plays defense. WTF is this? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 555 Posted March 13, 2007 WTF is this? Maybe he watched the Oregon game this past weekend....that one wasn't pretty...... BTW, I think Day Two will be a day of upsets. I only see two that I'd pick here. I think Thursday's games will be a little void of the unexpected. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dirty dug 0 Posted March 13, 2007 Maybe he watched the Oregon game this past weekend....that one wasn't pretty...... BTW, I think Day Two will be a day of upsets. I only see two that I'd pick here. I think Thursday's games will be a little void of the unexpected. Oh right, one game where Oregon is just retarded out of their mind means USC doesn't play defense. We'll just ignore that they're ranked #13 in field goal percentage defense and 83rd in scoring defense. But Arky plays defense. They're 103rd in scoring defense and 47th in field goal percentage defense. Clearly he didn't watch Arkansas' performance on Sunday where they let Florida shoot 53% from the field. Oregon shot 53% against USC on Saturday Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 555 Posted March 13, 2007 Oh right, one game where Oregon is just retarded out of their mind means USC doesn't play defense. We'll just ignore that they're ranked #13 in field goal percentage defense and 83rd in scoring defense. But Arky plays defense. They're 103rd in scoring defense and 47th in field goal percentage defense. Clearly he didn't watch Arkansas' performance on Sunday where they let Florida shoot 53% from the field. Oregon shot 53% against USC on Saturday No need for such defensiveness. It was just a suggestion......... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dirty dug 0 Posted March 13, 2007 No need for such defensiveness. It was just a suggestion......... You're right, it was just a really stupid comment on his part. My apologies to you. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KSB2424 3,173 Posted March 13, 2007 There is one thing that I have learned today here at the fftoday. If you do not agree with dirty dug and do not like the teams that he does, then you are stupid. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dirty dug 0 Posted March 13, 2007 There is one thing that I have learned today here at the fftoday. If you do not agree with dirty dug and like the teams that he does, then you are stupid. First off all, you are stupid. Secondly, I never said I didn't like Albany, I said your rationale behind them was stupid. Thirdly, saying a team that ranks 13th in field goal percentage against doesn't play defense is retarded stupid. Finally, you're still stupid. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rusty Syringes 478 Posted March 13, 2007 We should do this in a simple poll format. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dirty dug 0 Posted March 13, 2007 We should do this in a simple poll format. Don't be stupid. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JT 137 Posted March 13, 2007 WTF is this? Quite honestly, it's a 'who cares' game to me, as I thought I pointed out pretty clearly. I don't think either team is winning in the second round, and certainly neither is a threat to do any damage in the field. In the adjusted ratings for offensive and defensive efficiency in which I put a lot of stock, Arkansas is 20th and USC 35th. USC has amassed their defensive stats in a conference where no team shoots above 48%, and only one team scores over 72.3 ppg. Arkansas has amassed theirs in a conference where two teams shoot over 48% and the top 6 teams (at least the top 6; I didn't look further) score over 73 ppg. Maybe that's because every team in the Pac 10 is a great defensive squad. That's just not the reason I believe. As for how Arkansas did against Florida, well, that seems to happen to a lot of teams. Florida's #3 in the nation in offensive efficiency. Oregon's a well ranked offensive team too (#13, if memory serves). But you're right; they shot way over their heads vs USC. Florida shoots well all the time (51% on the season). But I'm just bogging this thread down with facts and statistics. Go right on back to centering the discussion with googly-eyed emoticons and insults. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chronic Husker 86 Posted March 13, 2007 JT, you're arguing with a guy that's been saying Kobe isn't a dirty player for months. I don't think you're gonna get anywhere. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JT 137 Posted March 13, 2007 JT, you're arguing with a guy that's been saying Kobe isn't a dirty player for months. I don't think you're gonna get anywhere. Kobe? Dirty? Listen, it's certainly reasonable to assume that one of the world's most graceful athletes simply loses control of his body function at exactly the same moment that a white guy blocks his shot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,884 Posted March 13, 2007 I think Wright St. can beat beat Pittsburgh. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JT 137 Posted March 13, 2007 I think Wright St. can beat beat Pittsburgh. I don't like Pitt, and think they'r ripe to be upset. I just haven't found a reason to think Wright St can get the job done. Got any insight that might sway me? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
iceblumist610 0 Posted March 13, 2007 History would indicate that you've got about twice as many as will actually occur. For all the talk of upsets, you'd still have done far better each of the last 10 years taking all favorites as opposed to all upsets, and that's without even counting the 1-16 & 2-15 matchups. The rest aren't upsets in my book. 7-10 & 8-9 games are tossups. In fact, I think more 10's & 9's than 7's & 8's have won over the last 5 years. Good luck! Thanks. Although, as far as history goes, I'm going to have to call you on that one. I'm nowhere near twice what history would indicate. Actually, in the past two years, my picks are almost exactly the same number of upsets as have happened (the key is picking the right ones. I know the numbers, I just can't seem to call the right teams). I called 1 3/14 upset. In 2005, there was 1. In 2006, there was 1. I called 1 4/13 upset. In 2005, there was 1. In 2006, there was 1. I called 2 5/12 upsets. In 2005, there was 1. In 2006, there were 2. I called 1 6/11 upset. In 2005, there was 1. In 2006, there were 2. The sketchiest upset pick I have I think is Winthrop. They're in a great position for an upset, but they're playing a team who is not in a great position to be upset. I still think it's probably the most likely 11 over 6 though. I'm actually concerned that I don't have enough upsets picked throughout the tourney. Right now, I have every single 1 and 2 seed making it through to the Sweet Sixteen. In each of the last two years, 2 have gone down in round 2. As far as I can see, the most vulnerable is Memphis. I'm thinking about calling Creighton to be the double-digit seed in the Sweet Sixteen this year (although if ODU and Davidson can win in round 1, one of them will join Creighton). And I just added 7/10s and 8/9s for formality's sake. They're tossups. Good luck to you as well. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
t.j 35 Posted March 14, 2007 The sketchiest upset pick I have I think is Winthrop. They're in a great position for an upset, but they're playing a team who is not in a great position to be upset. I still think it's probably the most likely 11 over 6 though. Actually, I think Notre Dame is a perfect team to get upset. Yeah, they shoot well, but if those shots aren't falling... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JT 137 Posted March 14, 2007 Actually, I think Notre Dame is a perfect team to get upset. Yeah, they shoot well, but if those shots aren't falling... Their big kid inside has matured great as the season has gone along. They've also made a change at PG to a far quicker kid. He had Sapp of Georgetown, a very good defender, back on his heels during much of their tourney matchup. One reason I think ND will avoid the problem of shots not falling is that they're so balanced. Four different guys average double figures, and as a team they shoot 47% from the field and nearly 40% from 3. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JT 137 Posted March 14, 2007 Thanks. Although, as far as history goes, I'm going to have to call you on that one. I'm nowhere near twice what history would indicate. Hey, my bad. I missed where you noted that was for both Thurs & Fri. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RLLD 4,275 Posted March 14, 2007 Kobe? Dirty? Listen, it's certainly reasonable to assume that one of the world's most graceful athletes simply loses control of his body function at exactly the same moment that a white guy blocks his shot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,995 Posted March 14, 2007 Rusty is killing his first round opponent. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
iceblumist610 0 Posted March 14, 2007 Winthrop another 'sleeper' that everybody's picking. Notre Dame is going to the Sweet 16. Big East teams have to play a variety of styles, and imo are going to do very well in tourney play. Nova, ND, G'Town could all go deep. I don't like Pitt. I think you--coupled with everything else I've been reading--has convinced me. ND is getting absolutely no respect, and I think more people have Winthrop winning than have ND. I'm beginning to think the Irish take this one, and quite probably Oregon as well. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ZeroTolerance 584 Posted March 15, 2007 Hmm...I'm avoiding the hunt for upsets in the first round (big upsets, 13-16 seeds) this year, trying to focus on getting as much of the late rounds as possible. The upsets I've been considering are mostly in situations where I dont expect either team to beat the 2nd round opponent (see: Butler/ODU). The pods that I think are very up in the air are the VT/S. Illinois pod in the west, and the Tenn/Virginia pod in the south (no coincidence that they are 4/5s). If I HAD to take a 13 and a 14, I would go for Holy Cross and Oral Roberts (Pitt seems to take care of business vs the mediocre teams so they can focus on losing to every good opponent). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JT 137 Posted March 15, 2007 I think you--coupled with everything else I've been reading--has convinced me. ND is getting absolutely no respect, and I think more people have Winthrop winning than have ND. I'm beginning to think the Irish take this one, and quite probably Oregon as well. Notre Dame ranks 6th in offensive efficiency in the pomeroy ratings. 75+% of the teams in the Final Four the last 3 years have been in his top 10 in that category. They're ranked with the likes of Texas, Texas A&M, G'town, Florida, UNC, etc. They're not a great defensive team, but still rank in the top 50. There's a lot of build up to this first round, and Notre Dame has seen all the bulletin board material about Winthrop. There's no question that ND's talent is up to the task. The question is whether they'll overlook Winthrop. I think the media has assured that won't happen. Hmm...I'm avoiding the hunt for upsets in the first round (big upsets, 13-16 seeds) this year, trying to focus on getting as much of the late rounds as possible. The upsets I've been considering are mostly in situations where I dont expect either team to beat the 2nd round opponent (see: Butler/ODU). The pods that I think are very up in the air are the VT/S. Illinois pod in the west, and the Tenn/Virginia pod in the south (no coincidence that they are 4/5s). If I HAD to take a 13 and a 14, I would go for Holy Cross and Oral Roberts (Pitt seems to take care of business vs the mediocre teams so they can focus on losing to every good opponent). Oral Roberts is a great pick. They have two guys that can play for anybody in Green and Tutt. Both are over 2000 pts for their college career; that's rare. Both have been MVP's of their conference tourney, and Green has been conference POY three years running. They're not afraid of anybody. Wash St has no tourney experience, and ORU was the best #16 seed in the history of the tourney last year. A loss by ORU won't kill your bracket, but I think they have a legitimate shot at winning two games. That could make your region for you. I have looked for 3 days to find a reason that Pitt would lose to Wright St. I think the Panthers are ripe for upset, but I don't see this 1st round opponent doing it.I see them losing to the winner of Duke/VCU, and that's probably Duke. The Blue Devils have made 10 of the last 11 Sweet 16's. They're not ready for a title run this year, but they're still Duke. Hate McRoberts etc all you want, but Duke hasn't suddenly stopped recruiting talent. Here's a tip on him before every talking head starts spouting it next year: he's the best passing big man in the country. His TO's reflect his attempts to make nearly impossible passes. His skill level is undeniable. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
t.j 35 Posted March 15, 2007 To me, the question is not whether Winthrop can upset Notre Dame or whether Notre Dame will be up for playing Winthrop. I think the question is whether Notre Dame is better to begin with. Winthrop's losses: @North Carolina, 73-66 @Maryland, 71-60 @Wisconsin, 82-79 (OT) @Texas A&M, 71-51 (ouch) Winthrop has won 18 games in a row. Their RPI is not good (70, as compared to Notre Dame's 31), but you have to wonder what it would be if they had played their tough opponents at home rather than on the road. I can buy that maybe Notre Dame should be better than a 6. But perhaps Winthrop is also better than a 6. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JT 137 Posted March 15, 2007 To me, the question is not whether Winthrop can upset Notre Dame or whether Notre Dame will be up for playing Winthrop. I think the question is whether Notre Dame is better to begin with. Winthrop's losses: @North Carolina, 73-66 @Maryland, 71-60 @Wisconsin, 82-79 (OT) @Texas A&M, 71-51 (ouch) Winthrop has won 18 games in a row. Their RPI is not good (70, as compared to Notre Dame's 31), but you have to wonder what it would be if they had played their tough opponents at home rather than on the road. I can buy that maybe Notre Dame should be better than a 6. But perhaps Winthrop is also better than a 6. Winthrop has a great resume, but I think it's always dangerous to rate teams based on how closely they lost to good teams. What are their best wins? Nothing jumps out except consistency against teams from their own confernece, which has been great. Of course, the games you mention are road losses, which establish a fair amount of credibility. I don't think ND is necessarily 'better' than a #6; I never made that argument. I just think their draw is conducive to them winning two games. I tend to disregard all seeds except the first and last 8. They don't mean much in the big scheme of things. I pick my bracket without any numbers. I try to watch these team during the course of the season and develop my own opinion as to who is better than who. I really don't care where the committee (the same committee that rewarded George Mason's Final Four run by cutting 25% of the mid-major at-large bids) has anyone seeded. In the ratings I tend to favor, which look at efficiency based on opponents strength, ND ranks 6th in offensive efficiency and top 50 in defense. Winthrop ranks 75-80 in both categories. Now, the ratings may be way off due to them under-valuing Winthrop's conference foes, and emotion is a big factor this time of year. That's why they play the tournament! You may be right. I may be crazy. But it just may be a lunatic you're looking for. Sorry. I went all Billy Joel for a minute there. Enjoy the best sporting event of the year!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
t.j 35 Posted March 15, 2007 DAY 1 BUMP! Davidson hanging with Maryland early, BC and TTU close, Louisville taking it to Stanford so far! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JScott 20 Posted March 15, 2007 As some Geeks know I telecommute full-time from my house for my job. As some Geeks know I recently bought a 46" LCD HDTV. March Madness baby Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 555 Posted March 15, 2007 Stanford showing exactly why I thought they should have been in the NIT.......... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ZeroTolerance 584 Posted March 15, 2007 Thank god for the internet coverage. Our area has the following coverage on tv: - Texas Tech vs Boston College - Georgetown vs Belmont - Ohio St vs Central Connecticut St - North Carolina vs Eastern Kentucky Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
