1st Round Commentary (Jetdoc's Mock)

[Jetdoc 20]

Another year, another early mock. It'll be interesting to see where the rookies go this year (seeing that most are WR's), and where the RBBC's will play out.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Jet,

 

Do you have moderator status for this draft? If not, it would be nice to get that so that we can clear up the clutter (i.e threads that do not pertain to our mock).

[Jetdoc 20]

Nope - I don't. I'll ask Mike.

[NAn 39]

checking in.

[Da Bomb 0]

i have a lot of free time just this week, so if i could get mod access for a week, i can help keep things clear and up to date too. dont care either way, but offering if it would be helpful.

 

cant wait for nan to steal my player coming back around the bend every single time.

[Vikings4ever 496]

First pick is a no brainer.

[Fumbleweed 426]

First pick is a no brainer.

 

You stole my pick!! I was counting on him being there at #3!!!!

 

Flashback to 2006

[Da Bomb 0]

darn it, i was really hoping for sjax to slide to me at #9. now what?

[thedanzone 2]

Tough call between Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson (didn't think name dropping this early really means anything).

 

I think both teams are on the downward trend, but KC has a few more problems to overcome than STL at this time.

 

I don't think Jackson will catch 90 balls again, but he'll get 350-400 carries.

[robb 71]

S Jax wouldn't have slid past me at #8. Let's see which Tier 2 back I get now.

[Miller_Time_21 0]

I too lean towards SJax over LJ at the 2 spot. Both got worked a ton last year, but less questions marks seem to surround Jackson's situation then LJ's.

[Da Bomb 0]

i was joking about hoping sjax would fall.

 

i specifically put myself down near the bottom because the top 4-6 are pretty clear imo and then its an absolute mess in my head after that. i just for the first time this year made a mock top 4 rounds and discovered two things. one, i really wish i wasnt drafting at my spot because these top spots have a much better situation. two, there are very very few players i can draft and get excited about this year, and the list runs dry after about the top 5 rounds, and thats including boofs that you guys take in between.

 

yikes, every year it gets less and less.

[Fumbleweed 426]

I know this sounds crazy and somewhat spoiled, but I'm not thrilled with the LJ pick here for me. I think his numbers will decline a bit from last year, but I just couldn't place anybody else in this pick based on my projections. I've got another RB ranked dead even with him at this point, but that guy hasn't had but one great season and I felt Johnson was thus the slightly safer pick.

[Da Bomb 0]

yeah that was the other reason i didnt want the high pick. i personally want nothing to do with LJ this year. i think kc is going to struggle mightily, the line is mediocre at best now, and LJ is worn down after carrying a full load for so many games in a row. i think hes going to break down this year.

 

i also dont really want to take sjax that high. i like him a lot, but im not positie hes going to get a ton of carries, and if he does, i dont believe his body can hold up and take them all. just seems awfully high to take someone who has to perform at his peak to meet your #2 or #3 expectations. i never like drafting players like that.

 

lt2 also has concerns since hes also over the 400 magic number (see nan), but i just think hes a player all to his own. even if he misses a couple games and drops 10 TDs, hes still my #1 pick.

[Fumbleweed 426]

yeah that was the other reason i didnt want the high pick. i personally want nothing to do with LJ this year. i think kc is going to struggle mightily, the line is mediocre at best now, and LJ is worn down after carrying a full load for so many games in a row. i think hes going to break down this year.

 

i also dont really want to take sjax that high. i like him a lot, but im not positie hes going to get a ton of carries, and if he does, i dont believe his body can hold up and take them all. just seems awfully high to take someone who has to perform at his peak to meet your #2 or #3 expectations. i never like drafting players like that.

 

lt2 also has concerns since hes also over the 400 magic number (see nan), but i just think hes a player all to his own. even if he misses a couple games and drops 10 TDs, hes still my #1 pick.

 

So, who would you have chosen in that spot......Johnson or someone else?

[Da Bomb 0]

i definitely wouldve taken lj, also at #2, no question about it. i just wouldve tried to trade him immediately. hes got too much value and obvious potential value to pass on there. i just hate going into the year with a guy i have a sick feeling in my stomach about. last year i went against my gut and took alexander in a big league, and i obviously regretted that all year when i wouldve won my league probably with lt or lj. i just dont want any part of lj this year. but he is absolutely the pick at #3 or later if hes still there.

[remote controller 133]

I am here and will try to pick shortly. I would have loved to had Fumble's problem, and gotten LJ at pick #3. I was hoping he'd take Manning there.

 

I feel the first 5 picks are set in stone this year, barring a setback to any of the 5. There is a #6 I would slide in there at 5 or 6, if I picked there. Many would have him lower, and I even feel he is a safer pick then the one I'm gonna take. I hate to take guys like this, but his first year of exposure was awfully good, and I don't see this squad falling backwards. My pick is Gore.

 

i was joking about hoping sjax would fall.

 

i specifically put myself down near the bottom because the top 4-6 are pretty clear imo and then its an absolute mess in my head after that. i just for the first time this year made a mock top 4 rounds and discovered two things. one, i really wish i wasnt drafting at my spot because these top spots have a much better situation. two, there are very very few players i can draft and get excited about this year, and the list runs dry after about the top 5 rounds, and thats including boofs that you guys take in between.

 

yikes, every year it gets less and less.

I agree with this, but didn't see it till after I posted. I see a more clear top 5 to the masses, but agree there are 6 that seem solid.

[Fumbleweed 426]

I have Gore projected with the same production as LJ. I think that's a solid pick at #4. He just has only done it for one season....thus, my hesitation in picking him over Johnson.

[Da Bomb 0]

i like gore a lot. i have concerns about him staying healthy and about norv turner leaving, but SF has improved a lot this offseason and will surely continue to run the ball plenty, and i think gore is going to be an excellent back yet again. he and sjax are the two guys at the top that im nervous about, but also that have an amazing upside that you just cant ignore.

[remote controller 133]

I have Gore projected with the same production as LJ. I think that's a solid pick at #4. He just has only done it for one season....thus, my hesitation in picking him over Johnson.

[robb 71]

I agree with the comments so far, with the exception that I believe S Jax is in for an excellent year whereas you all have doubts. He's got a QB who will keep defenses honest and a meiocre defense so there will be opportunities on offense for him. I see him as a clear-cut #2.

 

The top 5 are pretty clear cut and we have all fairly well picked them that way. No surprises yet, and I will pick a RB as well, just not clear who will be available. I have one in mind who I would want...we'll just have to see if Shane, CooT or JetDoc picks him.

[NAn 39]

-I have the top3 just as it went but relunctantly.

I’ll have my update to my ‘heavy rb workload’ article hopefully by mid-july or august, but LT, Sjax and LJ will all be cited as RBs who statistical data says will see a significant drop off in production. But, b/c of their value in the FF community, just don’t see possibly picking any other players than those 3 if you have spots 1-3.

 

-RC says top5 are a lock and heard other similar comments some to as far as top8…this will be a real interesting draft for me as after the top3, IMO it’s a crapshoot from 4-10, maybe 4-12.

 

-So not who I would have there but could see Gore there at 4, but not completely sold. Yes, offense has some weapons, Smith should continue to grow (impressed with his progress last year), but think they’re going to miss Turner more than they think. Again, not a bad pick, just one I think is a tad high, considering a couple of other more ‘stable’ picks IMO.

[remote controller 133]

i like gore a lot. i have concerns about him staying healthy and about norv turner leaving, but SF has improved a lot this offseason and will surely continue to run the ball plenty, and i think gore is going to be an excellent back yet again. he and sjax are the two guys at the top that im nervous about, but also that have an amazing upside that you just cant ignore.

 

I was glad to see these comments, for they match my feelings exactly. The interesting picks will be 6 thru 9, or 10, in my opinion. I am usually a draft safe first pick guy, and this does take me out of my safety zone some, but the upside was just too high in this case. I see 3 fairly safe picks left I could have easily lived with.

[Fumbleweed 426]

CooT

 

We have a new name for our beloved, eccentric friend.

[robb 71]

My bad, I am not handing out names, certainly not of the veterans. If I could spell correctly, it should have been CotT!! Sorry.

[remote controller 133]

-I have the top3 just as it went but relunctantly.

I’ll have my update to my ‘heavy rb workload’ article hopefully by mid-july or august, but LT, Sjax and LJ will all be cited as RBs who statistical data says will see a significant drop off in production. But, b/c of their value in the FF community, just don’t see possibly picking any other players than those 3 if you have spots 1-3.

 

-RC says top5 are a lock and heard other similar comments some to as far as top8…this will be a real interesting draft for me as after the top3, IMO it’s a crapshoot from 4-10, maybe 4-12.

 

-So not who I would have there but could see Gore there at 4, but not completely sold. Yes, offense has some weapons, Smith should continue to grow (impressed with his progress last year), but think they’re going to miss Turner more than they think. Again, not a bad pick, just one I think is a tad high, considering a couple of other more ‘stable’ picks IMO.

 

Leave no doubt that I feel LT and SJAX are the clear top 2, then I have 4 backs I feel are the logical 4 to fall. I just have no idea how they will fall. That is gonna come down to drafting styles. I have Gore and LJ in a dead heat thus far, then what I feel are 2 safer players.

[ShaneFalco 0]

Hey all, I'll be picking momentarily.

 

#5 is where i feel the first tier ends, so it's difficult to decide. Could go with a safe, proven pick or choose one of the flashy 2nd year RBs. Decisions, decisions...

[Fumbleweed 426]

My bad, I am not handing out names, certainly not of the veterans. If I could spell correctly, it should have been CotT!! Sorry.

 

Hey, this mock is supposed to be lots of fun.

 

Don't treat the "veterans" with any sense of special privilege. We're just a bunch of FF geeks.....nothing more. Relax and enjoy your time with us!!

[ShaneFalco 0]

So the pick is Alexander:

 

Shaun's proven that he can get it done and put up monster numbers. He has no/little competition for carries, the offense and o-line are still very solid, and Seattle should be in enough games to allow them to run the ball often in the second half. The worry with him is obvously age and injury problems. Reports out of camp are that he's in as good of shape as ever, and that whispers of his foot still being cracked are not true. It's still early but as of right now, he warrants a #5 ranking, IMO

[Da Bomb 0]

good pick with alexander. he is clearly, to me, a top 5 pick at worst. i dont understand why so many people are writing him off after one mediocre injury year.

 

at this point i see one more pick before a dropoff to a tier that has 5 close guys with 3 more not trailing by much. all a matter of preference and likeability at that point.

 

is it just me, or does ff seem to become more of a crapshoot every single year?

[Jetdoc 20]

It's absolutely become more of a crapshoot. When you're looking at the mid-first round and saying "meh" to yourself, that's not a good thing. That's why I chose the 7th slot - to make me make some of the difficult "this doesn't make me all that happy" decisions....

[ShaneFalco 0]

good pick with alexander. he is clearly, to me, a top 5 pick at worst. i dont understand why so many people are writing him off after one mediocre injury year.

 

at this point i see one more pick before a dropoff to a tier that has 5 close guys with 3 more not trailing by much. all a matter of preference and likeability at that point.

 

is it just me, or does ff seem to become more of a crapshoot every single year?

 

Always a crapshoot, IMO. Luck is more often a factor than skill, after a certain level of preparedness. Just a matter of "scouting" the guys you like.

 

Alexander has had GREAT seasons the past four or five years, and last year was the first down one. I think that if he was healthy he would have been top 5. He still has the top 1-2 upside, as long as he stays healthy

[Da Bomb 0]

this is why, more and more every year, i move toward my own personal draft strategy. that would be doing a bunch of mocks and reading boards to feel people out and find out who people like. then i just draft the consensus best player available at pretty much every pick, stock up on trade value, play it out 2 or 3 weeks of probably 0-2 or 1-2 ball, and then start the trade machine rolling and go get the guys i want. i find that thats the only way to consistently win. last year my projections were quite good for the most part, and even then, you have to trade folks to get a team that gives you more than a "meh" feeling.

 

i dont believe that luck is as much involved with fantasy as you think. theres a reason why a handful of people are always up near the top of leagues, just like why those same star poker players are always at the final table on espn. is there luck involved? sure, absolutely. but in a game based on luck, theres skill in how you play it.

 

also a point of clarification, i will not be drafting the way i said above in this mock. in this mock, since theres no trades, im just building my team based on how i would want it to perform best.

 

cmon, someone email CooT and get his pick in here!

[ShaneFalco 0]

hey rc, i just noticed we have the same birthday

 

[NAn 39]

That's why I chose the 7th slot - to make me make some of the difficult "this doesn't make me all that happy" decisions....

 

That should work out for you Jet as in the history of this draft the 'has made you happy' decisions have you ending up with crappy players!

 

ring up Nan for first 'cheap shot' of the 6th annual Jetdoc Mock

 

 

Agree with Bomb about Alexander, with the caveat of the debatable 'foot still broken'.

 

Thing with Alexander is , IF healthy, even before his record setting td year, he always had nose for ez, in the 16-18 range just about every other year as a starter.

[Da Bomb 0]

i havent done projections yet, but unless i hear bad news about alexander before i do them, i'll have a hard time believing he wont show up in my top 3.

[Miller_Time_21 0]

I agree on Alexander for the most part. The foot issue still linguring does bring some concern, but when healthy SA is a TD machine and 20 TD's is definatly within reason.

[Da Bomb 0]

hey did yall win the IBL for fft last year, whoever was in it?

 

im not sure what made me think of the ibl, must have been the waiting on clash... ;-)

[NAn 39]

BOMB

Yeah, they won it all...you didn't go by DZ's site at end of year?

You got much props (deservedly so) for your research and help.

 

ALL

I just looked at my list a little closer and saw there are 9 players I'd be 'happy' with as my 1st rnd pick...and of course I'm at pick 10.

 

Be interesting and may put me in position to look at an option I almost NEVAH consider.

[Da Bomb 0]

no i wasnt around at the end of the year, i just knew yall were winning by a wide margin halfway through the year. glad to see the real champs finally got the trophy too.

 

and dont worry, youre not gonna get stuck taking manning. im sure the guy pick probably wont be one of your 9 in all likelihood. my makeshift list is going to be interesting, to say the least.