Brandon Jacobs - Projections

[wizbang 10]

The average # of TDs projected for Jacobs is around 9. That is how many he scored last season. Unless we're projecting an injury, I don't see how he wouldn't improve. Even if he ends up splitting close to 50-50 with Droughns, do you really think the Giants WON'T give him the ball near the goalline? Why wouldn't they? Again, even if he struggles in the primary role, they KNOW he's a good short yardage guy.

 

Another comment I don't understand is the knock he's been getting for his YPC. Again the guy was a SHORT YARDAGE BACK. That means SHORT RUNS and hence a low YPC. It must be one of those things that is so darn logically obvious that it sails over the heads of guys trying to write up every player in the NFL. Lets see... 3.9 YPC, ok that's kinda low so he must not be a good feature RB option.

 

Don't get me wrong, I think overall Jacobs is being sloted about right in terms of where he should be drafted. He's going as a bottom tier #2 RB. That's about right with the questions the Giants have on offense and his high running style. But has everyone forgotten how great this guy looked the last two preseasons when he wasn't getting mostly short yardage carries. I remember this place going nuts. It must tie to the fact that everyone likes an underdog but once that underdog becomes the favorite, all you see are his faults. I'm calling it FWP syndrome.

[listen2me 23 1,583]

Im projecting..

 

1100yds 10 TDs 23 rec 180yds

 

 

He will be solid.

[Super Cubs 134]

I think he'll be a solid player putting up 1100 yards and 10 tds. With a huge up side of putting huge numbers.

[Killer Elite 0]

I'm with you wizbang. Definitely worth a grab in the 3rd round as a #2 or #3RB. Looking at some video on this guy he is a monster. If he does stay healthy I think he has huge potential. I just fear that due to his lack of fear and trampling running style some LB will take it too him and down he will go. I wouldn’t expect a RBBC approach at all as he is by far the best back on the team. But I guess we will know more in a month.

[tommy8370 0]

Yeah, Im with you as well. I had BJ in 2005 and thought he was a TD monster then. You are exactly right with the ypc comment. Two tries from the one and you average .5 ypc. But, you just scored six points. Last year with almost 100 carries he averaged 4.4 ypc. Lets say he gets 15 carries per game that equals........ 250 carries for 1100 yards, and lets say 10 td's (to be safe). Sounds good to me.

[jocstrap 8]

1200 rushing yards 13 td's

 

and he won't catch a ball.

[dominus florenzus 0]

I'm glad someone makes a thread about Jacobs and it isn't all about shitting on him. The dude is a beast. No one really knows (except Giants homers like me) how he can run in the open field because that has always been Tiki's job. The only legit question is durability. If Coughlin is smart and rotates in Droughns to take some of the pounding, I think Jacobs will hold up. I'll tell ya, NYG fans are pumped up about this guy. He appeared on draft day and the whole place was going nuts (led by a 50 year old guy with a Mark Bavaro jersey who was drunk out of his mind). I really think he will be a top #2 RB.

 

About the offensive line, the Giants have 4 quality guys.... LT is the question mark. It might be LG David Diehl who did a pretty good job v. Washington in the last reg season game (when Tiki ran for 225 yds) and in the playoff game the Giants barely lost to Philly. Or it might be this guy named Guy Whimper (if that name doesnt inspire fear, I dont know what does!) who is apparently a monster but still needs some work. Or.... that guy Gaithers from Maryland who is entering the supplemental draft.... I hope the Giants make a bid.

[LittleGiants78 0]

I'm with you wizbang. Definitely worth a grab in the 3rd round as a #2 or #3RB. Looking at some video on this guy he is a monster. If he does stay healthy I think he has huge potential. I just fear that due to his lack of fear and trampling running style some LB will take it too him and down he will go. I wouldn’t expect a RBBC approach at all as he is by far the best back on the team. But I guess we will know more in a month.

 

 

Yeah, but then again- maybe he hits the linebacker back and down the LB will go?

 

http://youtube.com/watch?v=PUsWASF06tc

[dominus florenzus 0]

I think that if Eli goes down, and Jared "the Hefty Lefty" Lorenzen (285 lbs) comes in at QB... the Giants may just set an NFL record for a QB/RB combination that weighs 550 pounds!

[Killer Elite 0]

Yeah, but then again- maybe he hits the linebacker back and down the LB will go?

 

http://youtube.com/watch?v=PUsWASF06tc

 

I am sure they will get their share.. I guess what I mean is a LB takes it in the chin and to get back he puts a helmet on Jacobs knee at the bottom of the pile or something. That type of thing is my biggest fear. I don’t see him getting hurt actually playing.. Dude is a tank.

[LittleGiants78 0]

I think that if Eli goes down, and Jared "the Hefty Lefty" Lorenzen (285 lbs) comes in at QB... the Giants may just set an NFL record for a QB/RB combination that weighs 550 pounds!

 

Best Observation Post Ever

 

I laughed so hard I farted!

[Peens 0]

Im projecting..

 

1100yds 10 TDs 23 rec 180yds

He will be solid.

 

People tend to undervalue guys like this who havent proven themselves, that makes perfect sense to me but i think too many are discounting this guy. Not many RB's will be sitting there in rd4 who will get you 20 carries a game and all the goal line work.

 

Im predicting 1200 total yards and 12 td's.

[Ace08 11]

For the record...I've been one of his biggest supporters on this site all summer...I see Jacobs having a great year. A great #2 RB.

[ROYALWITCHEESE 0]

The average # of TDs projected for Jacobs is around 9. That is how many he scored last season. Unless we're projecting an injury, I don't see how he wouldn't improve. Even if he ends up splitting close to 50-50 with Droughns, do you really think the Giants WON'T give him the ball near the goalline? Why wouldn't they? Again, even if he struggles in the primary role, they KNOW he's a good short yardage guy.

 

Another comment I don't understand is the knock he's been getting for his YPC. Again the guy was a SHORT YARDAGE BACK. That means SHORT RUNS and hence a low YPC. It must be one of those things that is so darn logically obvious that it sails over the heads of guys trying to write up every player in the NFL. Lets see... 3.9 YPC, ok that's kinda low so he must not be a good feature RB option.

 

Don't get me wrong, I think overall Jacobs is being sloted about right in terms of where he should be drafted. He's going as a bottom tier #2 RB. That's about right with the questions the Giants have on offense and his high running style. But has everyone forgotten how great this guy looked the last two preseasons when he wasn't getting mostly short yardage carries. I remember this place going nuts. It must tie to the fact that everyone likes an underdog but once that underdog becomes the favorite, all you see are his faults. I'm calling it FWP syndrome.

 

 

The problem with your reasoning, is that you are expecting the sorry-ass Giants to be able to get into position to score as much as they did last year. Without out Tiki, they won't even be close...

 

Yeah, but then again- maybe he hits the linebacker back and down the LB will go?

 

http://youtube.com/watch?v=PUsWASF06tc

 

 

LOL you do realize those are the 2nd and 3rd string players from the Cleveland Browns (making it even worse), in a preseason game no less?

[Yippie Skippy 0]

People tend to undervalue guys like this who havent proven themselves, that makes perfect sense to me but i think too many are discounting this guy. Not many RB's will be sitting there in rd4 who will get you 20 carries a game and all the goal line work.

 

Im predicting 1200 total yards and 12 td's.

 

 

No way he gets 320 carries this season.

 

He hasn't proved to be a good blocker on passing plays and at picking up the blitz for a guy with his size and quickness. He also hasn't proven that he is even a decent receiver on passing downs. That means he won't be on the field on most passing plays. Drougns or Bradshaw will.

[Road_Cats 1]

Barring something bad in preseason I see Bradon handling the ball on goal line carries and the majority of the running plays ill say around 75 percent. He won't be handling 3rd down in passing situations. To me this guy has the same potential as a Rudi Johnson but not so many yards. To me he is alot better option than many rb's going in the second round and Brandon can be had in 3rd. Not to highjack the thread but everyone falls on Ronnie Brown early second along with cedric Benson and think they got the steal of a lifetime. Ronnie is now under a new coach and with a new old qb with one good hit from not remebering the season if not his career missing leading reciever from last year starting te from last year the defense is a year older and their fg kicker but that Ronnie is a beast for a second round pick. Cedric is no Thoams Jones and Chicago will struggle more than last year and those are two example sorry for the rant and high jacking.

[BLS 313]

Jacobs is a bit raw, and MAY have had problems in the past as a pass blocker, and he also runs too upright, especially at the goal line.

 

But, he can learn to pass block. Lord knows he's strong enough.

He can also be taught to lower his shoulders at the goal line, or when anticipating a hit. If he doesn't...he won't make a whole season carrying a full load.

 

But...he's a freaking beast, and the amazing part is he's FAST and has decent feet.

Can he carry the full load and last is the big question. In that facet, he's basically a rookie and rookies always seem to run out of gas during their first full season.

 

I think if they give Droughns 10 carries a game, Jacobs is a 70yds per game kind of guy, with the possibility of breaking a big one. I would say he's probably safe to get 1100 yards and probably 12 TD's.

 

But his upside is gargantuan. If he's tougher than some suspect...he could legitamately be a 20TD guy.

[Chronic Husker 85]

Barring something bad in preseason I see Bradon handling the ball on goal line carries and the majority of the running plays ill say around 75 percent. He won't be handling 3rd down in passing situations. To me this guy has the same potential as a Rudi Johnson but not so many yards. To me he is alot better option than many rb's going in the second round and Brandon can be had in 3rd. Not to highjack the thread but everyone falls on Ronnie Brown early second along with cedric Benson and think they got the steal of a lifetime. Ronnie is now under a new coach and with a new old qb with one good hit from not remebering the season if not his career missing leading reciever from last year starting te from last year the defense is a year older and their fg kicker but that Ronnie is a beast for a second round pick. Cedric is no Thoams Jones and Chicago will struggle more than last year and those are two example sorry for the rant and high jacking.

Actually, a lot of this makes sense. Benson and Jones are starting to go in the 2nd. Ronnie Brown is going early 2nd. Jacobs may not be a downgrade at all in relation to these guys. The thing about waiting to get Jacobs in the 3rd is what do you do if he gets taken right in front of you? What is your recourse? I was in a mock where I had the 7th pick. Took Rudi in the first round and with Benson, Jones, Jacobs, and Cadillac all on the board, I elected to take Steve Smith with my second pick.

 

You can guess what happened. By the time 3.07 rolled around, all those backs were taken. Personally, I took Gates instead of reaching for a guy like Lynch and stacked RBs later (Peterson in 5, BJax, Foster). But I don't have a sure thing at RB in that draft. There is something to be said for getting your RBs set in the first two rounds, for sure. If you have the second or third pick, you can pretty much assure yourself that one of those backs will be available in three. But if you have a middle of the first round pick, you're definately gambling if you go WR in the second hoping to get one of those guys in the third.

 

Just something to chew on.

[Fozzy4 0]

Barring something bad in preseason I see Bradon handling the ball on goal line carries and the majority of the running plays ill say around 75 percent. He won't be handling 3rd down in passing situations. To me this guy has the same potential as a Rudi Johnson but not so many yards. To me he is alot better option than many rb's going in the second round and Brandon can be had in 3rd. Not to highjack the thread but everyone falls on Ronnie Brown early second along with cedric Benson and think they got the steal of a lifetime. Ronnie is now under a new coach and with a new old qb with one good hit from not remebering the season if not his career missing leading reciever from last year starting te from last year the defense is a year older and their fg kicker but that Ronnie is a beast for a second round pick. Cedric is no Thoams Jones and Chicago will struggle more than last year and those are two example sorry for the rant and high jacking.

 

Actually, Cedric Benson is quite comparable to Thomas Jones. He posted identical YPC last year (4.1 each), and posted the same TDs as Jones had, but in about half as many carries. Jones had 297, Benson 157, and both 6 TDs. Thus, it took TJones 49.5 carries to hit paydirt, to Benson's 26.2. While I'll agree that he may not quite keep up that TD pace, it does seem unfair to badmouth Benson when he performed at least as well as TJones did in Chicago last year, and one could argue that he was in fact better because of his frequency in hitting the endzone.

 

Also, last I checked Benson's ADP was 3.02, at which point I actually consider him a pretty solid pickup. Jacobs is possibly a much better value, though, going later and likely having at least as much FF value. We won't know for sure until it becomes clear what the RB situation is there, though - that, IMO, is what keeps his ADP down. Droughns was brought in, and it's not clear yet just how much that will affect Jacobs' role. It is also worth noting that his running style may be more perilous than average, as he remains very upright and thus presents bigger targets to defenders who may be gunning for him. Granted he is built like a tank, but how exposed his knees look when he runs really worries me. If he could run with a more compact style, I'd have much more confidence that he wouldn't wind up with a smashed up knee this year. I do realize that the guy is simply not compact, but I hope everyone can understand what I mean when I say it would be a big improvement for him to run in a more compact way, and likely alleviate much unnecessary punishment he will otherwise take this season.

 

Actually, a lot of this makes sense. Benson and Jones are starting to go in the 2nd. Ronnie Brown is going early 2nd. Jacobs may not be a downgrade at all in relation to these guys. The thing about waiting to get Jacobs in the 3rd is what do you do if he gets taken right in front of you? What is your recourse? I was in a mock where I had the 7th pick. Took Rudi in the first round and with Benson, Jones, Jacobs, and Cadillac all on the board, I elected to take Steve Smith with my second pick.

 

You can guess what happened. By the time 3.07 rolled around, all those backs were taken. Personally, I took Gates instead of reaching for a guy like Lynch and stacked RBs later (Peterson in 5, BJax, Foster). But I don't have a sure thing at RB in that draft. There is something to be said for getting your RBs set in the first two rounds, for sure. If you have the second or third pick, you can pretty much assure yourself that one of those backs will be available in three. But if you have a middle of the first round pick, you're definately gambling if you go WR in the second hoping to get one of those guys in the third.

 

Just something to chew on.

 

You always have options. At 3.07, you should be in a good value position to draft your top remaining QB, or another receiver if you so choose. I realize it's not in everyone's comfort zone to push their RB2 beyond rd 3, but if the draft board dictates no good value at RB, you should not force the issue, and instead take something that is good value. My most common choice has been QB (usually Brees) in this situation since I feel I can get a great WR2 in the 4th rd where there is a lot of good value at that position. Typically I find the RB run will cool off and come back into reasonable value terriroty, at which point I draft my RB2, however if it does not, you just keep filling other positions: too many RB picks will guarantee that great value is falling to you at other positions, and if it happens for long enough it won't matter who you have to start at RB2 b/c your other positions will be so stacked. A team starting Tatum Bell at RB2 this year (a common 7th rd choice, and just an example here) could easily be fine in that scenario, as it will have such an amazing cast at other positions. Most often those upgrades come to the receiver corps, but the QB shouldn't be overlooked either since he can be a huge difference-maker. Same thing holds true with runs on other positions - in general, they guarantee you can find better value by selecting a different position. Doing this consistently means you net better value than your opponents, and that makes your picks have higher fantasy value, which ultimately means you have an advantage and are favored to win.

 

In the end, that's the backdrop for the most time-tested FF advice ever: Start runs, and don't follow them.

 

On a side note, I have come to be a bit down on drafting a RB in rd 2 - it removes drafting options from you. I've found that I like to have open slots at every position for as long as possible, as that allows me to select the best value pick that is on the board, regardless of position. Going RB RB basically forces you to take non-RBs for the next few rds, even if RBs have the best value at those spots. Taking a WR in rd 2 allows you the option of going any direction again in rd 3, and IMO has invariably given me the strongest starting lineups that I have drafted this year because of the pick flexibility I maintain longer into the draft. I simply draft far more fantasy-valuable teams when I resist my natural inclination to fill my RB2 spot as quickly as possible.

[LittleGiants78 0]

The problem with your reasoning, is that you are expecting the sorry-ass Giants to be able to get into position to score as much as they did last year. Without out Tiki, they won't even be close...

LOL you do realize those are the 2nd and 3rd string players from the Cleveland Browns (making it even worse), in a preseason game no less?

 

 

Ok guy-- what about this one?

 

Looks like regular season to me

 

http://youtube.com/watch?v=X33BMCpZssM

[mozzy84 0]

People tend to undervalue guys like this who havent proven themselves, that makes perfect sense to me but i think too many are discounting this guy. Not many RB's will be sitting there in rd4 who will get you 20 carries a game and all the goal line work.

 

Im predicting 1200 total yards and 12 td's.

no way is he going to get anywhere close to that, 320 carries!?. Where did you even come up with that number at this point in time? And I have a feeling they will be seeing that goaline strip alot less this year with tiki gone.

 

Rueben will get alot of carries, the guy had 1200 yards two years ago in cleveland no less.

 

Ok guy-- what about this one?

 

Looks like regular season to me

 

http://youtube.com/watch?v=X33BMCpZssM

how long is he going to last getting hit by 5 guys every play?

 

I am not sure how running like that is a good thing....

[Peens 0]

no way is he going to get anywhere close to that, 320 carries!?. Where did you even come up with that number at this point in time? And I have a feeling they will be seeing that goaline strip alot less this year with tiki gone.

 

Rueben will get alot of carries, the guy had 1200 yards two years ago in cleveland no less.

how long is he going to last getting hit by 5 guys every play?

 

I am not sure how running like that is a good thing....

 

They didnt bring Ruben in to be the starter, I have read or heard nothing that says that Ruben will be the main ball carrier. The GM on NFL Network said that Jacobs has lost 10 pounds and is changing his running style because they want him to get 15-20 carries per game.

 

You must be a droughns owner.

[mozzy84 0]

They didnt bring Ruben in to be the starter, I have read or heard nothing that says that Ruben will be the main ball carrier. The GM on NFL Network said that Jacobs has lost 10 pounds and is changing his running style because they want him to get 15-20 carries per game.

 

You must be a droughns owner.

Actually I am a Jacobs owner in one dynasty league. I hope he does great, I just don't see Jacobs getting close to 20 carries a game or close to 300 for the year, he definitely needs to change his running style but thats going to be tough being how huge he is.

[GobbleDog 823]

If you like to gamble, Jacobs is the RB for you! He's got boom or bust written all over him.

[tt1010 0]

He can also be taught to lower his shoulders at the goal line, or when anticipating a hit. If he doesn't...he won't make a whole season carrying a full load.

 

Actually, from what I've noticed, he does lower his pads before contact. With the first would-be tackler.

 

Then he gets pumped up, and proceeds to run into the next 3 or 4 guys completely upright. If he can control his emotions a bit after he bulldozes the first tackler, he could be sick. What worries me is if he doesn't... because he'll be facing LBs and DBs who will chop out his legs rather than go up high with him.

 

But...he's a freaking beast, and the amazing part is he's FAST and has decent feet.

Can he carry the full load and last is the big question. In that facet, he's basically a rookie and rookies always seem to run out of gas during their first full season.

 

I agree with your assessment completely.

 

What I *really* like about him is his attitude. Obviously, he's serious and dedicated to football - just watch him play and how emotional he gets. In addition, he seems to understand that he needs to change some things and that it will take hard work to get there. He's previously mentioned studying Eddie George's style in order to emulate a successful bigger back.

 

So, in addition to amazing skills, he appears to have a good head on his shoulders and is a student of the game. I like that combo. But, in the end, who knows

 

And, yes, I am a Jacobs owner, and I'll probably be keeping him this year for a 13th round pick.

[Peens 0]

If you like to gamble, Jacobs is the RB for you! He's got boom or bust written all over him.

 

Taking a gamble would be drafting him in rd1 or 2. I recently grabbed him at the end of rd4 as my #3 RB. I dont see that as much of a "gamble". Oh, and thats the beauty of it all.

[cyclone24 1,836]

Im really grinding because i want Jacobs on my team.

 

However im picking 12th out of 12 in a serpentine redraft.

 

SO i either have to pick him at #13 overall or wait and pick him at the end of round 3 and just pray he is there.

 

I dunno.....i think hes a 1150 and 12 td guy....thats solid #2 rb material

 

But #13 overall??

[dmleonard 0]

The problem with your reasoning, is that you are expecting the sorry-ass Giants to be able to get into position to score as much as they did last year. Without out Tiki, they won't even be close...

LOL you do realize those are the 2nd and 3rd string players from the Cleveland Browns (making it even worse), in a preseason game no less?

 

 

I love Jacobs this year and don't see any reason why he can't be this years Frank Gore. He has done well every time he has been given the opportunity, the starter from the year before is gone, there is no real competition. Gore had injury concerns just like Jacobs does and the Giants offense is definitely no worse than San Frans was going into last season. Going with an unproven guy always carries some risk, but the ceiling for this guy is pretty high if you ask me.

 

Take a guy like Benson who is being pimped like crazy. He has done nothing to show me he can be a great back. He gets dinged up a lot sharing carries, he has a bad attitude, his teammates don't like him, etc. But yet he is going higher than Jacobs.

[Peens 0]

Im really grinding because i want Jacobs on my team.

 

However im picking 12th out of 12 in a serpentine redraft.

 

SO i either have to pick him at #13 overall or wait and pick him at the end of round 3 and just pray he is there.

 

I dunno.....i think hes a 1150 and 12 td guy....thats solid #2 rb material

 

But #13 overall??

 

I havent seen Jacobs go in rd3 in any of my drafts (redraft or dynasty). I would go RB/WR at 1.12/2.1 then grab Jacobs at the 3.12/4.1 turn, he will be their.

[HawgWild 0]

I really like Jacobs this year.. I think he is a solid RB2 with potential to put up RB1 numbers... If you get him as a RB3 you got a real steal in my opinion... I predict 1250-1350 yds (rush and rec) and about 10-14 total TD's...

 

[mr.shitty 0]

1100 - 1300

 

10 ish tds

 

 

not sure how he will be used in the passing game

[wizbang 10]

Im really grinding because i want Jacobs on my team.

 

However im picking 12th out of 12 in a serpentine redraft.

 

SO i either have to pick him at #13 overall or wait and pick him at the end of round 3 and just pray he is there.

 

I dunno.....i think hes a 1150 and 12 td guy....thats solid #2 rb material

 

But #13 overall??

 

You simply CAN'T take him at #13 (and I started the pro-Jacobs thread). Just like the NFL draft, the FFL draft is about value. If you consistently pick guys ahead of their valued slot, you'll lose. You may hit on a few but that strategy assures that you'll HAVE TO.

 

I would wait until the third and if you REALLY want Jacobs but don't expect him to be there then try a trade. Offer your #13 and #36 to someone with the #18 and #30 or something similar. Then you get your surprise guy at a better value but get a better value at the other pick. I think you'll find other owners receptive to that offer.

[Gepetto 1,008]

I don't see a problem taking Jacobs with the #13 overall if he's the highest rated player or at least the highest rated RB on your board when you pick there. He could very easily be available in the 4th though so if you have another player you really like at #13 it might be wise to take that player there. I just feel that the consensus having players like Travis Henry and Willis McGahee available there doesn't mean anything. I have confidence Jacobs will outproduce those guys. Who cares what everyone else takes, pick the players you feel strongest about whenever you feel it's necessary to pull the trigger.

[The Moz 69]

I predict he only plays 8 games ! When he plays he will produce -- But he runs upright and tried to run through everyone. Yeah hes big n powerfull but the NFL has alot of big guys that that style will catch up to him. I expect hiom to be a constant QUESTIONABLE ! And maybe even Droughns taking over the full time gig !

[R8RMick 242]

Just about every expert with their name in a FF fishwrap is projecting Jacobs very low, even in non-ppr leagues. The main beef is no one believes he's not injury prone for his style of running. I swear, some like RotoWire are even convinced Droughns will be taking over before the year's out.

 

Their words not mine.

[Peens 0]

Just about every expert with their name in a FF fishwrap is projecting Jacobs very low, even in non-ppr leagues. The main beef is no one believes he's not injury prone for his style of running. I swear, some like RotoWire are even convinced Droughns will be taking over before the year's out.

 

Their words not mine.

 

Fantasy sites always seem to predict on the conservative side imo, they dont want to go out on a limb and are as guilty of following the herd as posters at sites. Players are always downgraded that havent proved to be able to carry the load. How many sites were predicting Gore last year to do what he did? none that i know of.

 

In a redraft league I guess you can afford to not take any chances on guys like Jacobs but the reality of it you can get him in rd4 and i dont think thats a low risk pick because he has the potential of putting up very good #2 rb numbers. In a dynasty if you follow the advice of sites and not taking any chances you are always going to be a year too late on a player and thats not going to win you any titles.

[Fozzy4 0]

Just about every expert with their name in a FF fishwrap is projecting Jacobs very low, even in non-ppr leagues. The main beef is no one believes he's not injury prone for his style of running. I swear, some like RotoWire are even convinced Droughns will be taking over before the year's out.

 

Their words not mine.

 

Well, the experts here have him as the 16th RB, ahead of Henry, Jones, Portis, and Benson on the cheatsheet, and everything I saw out of him last year tells me they're right. Feel free to take him in the late 3rd or 4th round (his ADP is 3.09) and proclaim "championship!"

 

I just hope the lid stays on him - his ADP has already risen some.

[rtrgameover 0]

Well I did my fair share of boosting up B. Jacobs over the past yr because I just traded him for the #1 overall pick in my Dynasty League. I'm just hopin I don't end up regreting that move down the line. I love this dude, when he got a chance to perform on the field last season I thought he looked great. Sure there were times he definitely could of done better but chalk that up to experience. What stands out in my mind is I think for his size he actually has very good footwork (reminds me of the bus, w/out the gut). Plus all i can remember is when he nearly hurdled a would be tackler only to catch his foot on the guys shoulder pad. Anyway I got high hopes for Jacobs and think he can go for about.

 

Rush 1050

Rec 220

TD's 13

[cyclone24 1,836]

I guess heres my thing.....

 

at my first picks (#12 and #13).....there are not LTs, Gores, SJAX, Rudis, etc.....no guaranteeed 1200 yd 12-13 td guys.

 

Mcgahee? Henry? Maroney?

 

Sure those guys could and should get there....but its no gurantee that they will either. To me there is no more guarantee that they will get there than jacobs.

 

But those guys will all go in round 2....where jacobs could fall to the end of round 3.

 

IMO....in 1 month when people are really into the redrafts for their seasons.....Jacobs might end up close to that 13th or 14th range anyway for running backs.

[R8RMick 242]

Fantasy sites always seem to predict on the conservative side imo, they dont want to go out on a limb and are as guilty of following the herd as posters at sites. Players are always downgraded that havent proved to be able to carry the load. How many sites were predicting Gore last year to do what he did? none that i know of.

 

In a redraft league I guess you can afford to not take any chances on guys like Jacobs but the reality of it you can get him in rd4 and i dont think thats a low risk pick because he has the potential of putting up very good #2 rb numbers. In a dynasty if you follow the advice of sites and not taking any chances you are always going to be a year too late on a player and thats not going to win you any titles.

 

 

Excellent post. I recently pulled out a couple 2006 Fantasy mags from last year (ESPN and Football Fantasy Index) and Gore wasn't even a blip on their radar. The key really is to find the 'Gore' of 2007 in this year's crop of RB's...