Brady's numbers next season

[BigDaddy1978 0]

Now, I haven't researched this but to my recollection, any QB who has ever gone for 40+ TDs in a season (Marino, Culpepper, Warner, and Manning) followed up the next season with, what would be considered in fantasy, a mediocre year. The one that I can recall numbers wise is Manning's 2004 season (the 49 TDs), followed by the '05 season where he threw for some 3700 yards and about 23 TDs (approx, I think)....minuscule by comparison. So basically, so far, history has taught us that Brady will be good, but will not be worth a first round selection as many people would like to believe. For whatever reason, these phenoms one year never return to form the following year. I do believe Tom Brady is capable of coming back with the same weapons and such next year and putting up the same numbers, but much like in Manning's case where he has been playing with Harrison and Wayne and Clark and everyone else, it just doesn't pan out that way. Does anybody think he will be the one to defy the past or do you agree that he will fall off like the players of the past?

[Cara 0]

Now, I haven't researched this but to my recollection, any QB who has ever gone for 40+ TDs in a season (Marino, Culpepper, Warner, and Manning) followed up the next season with, what would be considered in fantasy, a mediocre year. The one that I can recall numbers wise is Manning's 2004 season (the 49 TDs), followed by the '05 season where he threw for some 3700 yards and about 23 TDs (approx, I think)....minuscule by comparison. So basically, so far, history has taught us that Brady will be good, but will not be worth a first round selection as many people would like to believe. For whatever reason, these phenoms one year never return to form the following year. I do believe Tom Brady is capable of coming back with the same weapons and such next year and putting up the same numbers, but much like in Manning's case where he has been playing with Harrison and Wayne and Clark and everyone else, it just doesn't pan out that way. Does anybody think he will be the one to defy the past or do you agree that he will fall off like the players of the past?

 

 

He may not throw 40 TD's next season, but I don't really see how he could not be the #1 QB again, or at the very worst a close second. Moss should still be there, Welker and Stallworth will be there, and the line will remain intact. Barring injury, I see him as having another great year.

[gopanthers! 1]

good topic...i just won my big money league yesterday with Brady at the helm. Now i am left with a roster chalk full of "potential" keepers, and i can only keep 4! Should Brady be traded while he is fantasy gold? I will prob keep Brady assuming those receivers and offensive coordinator stay. R. Bush will def be a player on the market to dump and dump fast. I really want to keep Santonio Holmes, but he may fall to me in the draft at #10...im already thinking offseason and the real playoffs havent even begun! searchin for that back to back title

[xenophobe 1]

He may not throw 40 TD's next season, but I don't really see how he could not be the #1 QB again, or at the very worst a close second.

 

Agreed. As long as Moss and Welker remain and are healthy.

[parrot 789]

He may not throw 40 TD's next season, but I don't really see how he could not be the #1 QB again, or at the very worst a close second. Moss should still be there, Welker and Stallworth will be there, and the line will remain intact. Barring injury, I see him as having another great year.

 

Stallworth quite possibly won't be there, he is due some big bonuses if they decide to keep him. I'm not sure how much that will matter though as Gaffney has progressed nicely throughout the season and is often seeing more time than Stallworth now. Also Chad Jackson is waiting in the wings. It will be interesting to see what they have there.

[Ras66not99 0]

If it ain't broke why fix it ? Belicheck isn't going to change anything if it works....

 

He's not going to throw 50 again but I can see him with 4200+ and 35 Tds

[The Moz 69]

2008 Brady with Moss

 

4200 yds and 38 TD's

 

2008 Brady w/o Randy

 

3900 yds and 28 TD's ( Maroney's value would skyrocket here )

[BigDaddy1978 0]

2008 Brady with Moss

 

4200 yds and 38 TD's

 

2008 Brady w/o Randy

 

3900 yds and 28 TD's ( Maroney's value would skyrocket here )

 

 

I would agree that Maroney's value, much like Edgerrin James, will go up significantly. It will be his 3rd season, and if he becomes the premiere back (hahahahaha) then definitely get him. Somehow I doubt Bellicheck is going to get rid of all his other backs, especially Kevin Faulk. Sammy Morris was productive as well, but I digress.

 

 

He may not throw 40 TD's next season, but I don't really see how he could not be the #1 QB again, or at the very worst a close second. Moss should still be there, Welker and Stallworth will be there, and the line will remain intact. Barring injury, I see him as having another great year.

 

The point of this discussion is that, and I keep going back to Manning (cause that's the one I know), is that despite having all the same weapons (Warner still had Faulk, Holt, & Bruce too...and for that matter didn't Culpepper have Moss too when he had his big nutt?) they still for whatever reason seem to fall off the following season. In '05 Manning went 1st overall in every league with LT right behind him and he was NOT worth that #1 pick, in fact Carson Palmer ended up being the #1 QB that year fantasy wise. Manning was good, but his numbers would've been worthy of a mid 2nd - 3rd round selection. You guys think Brady is going to be the one to break this chain?

[idiotekniQues 0]

I would agree that Maroney's value, much like Edgerrin James, will go up significantly. It will be his 3rd season, and if he becomes the premiere back (hahahahaha) then definitely get him. Somehow I doubt Bellicheck is going to get rid of all his other backs, especially Kevin Faulk.

 

for sure. faulk comes up on big plays a lot.

 

from the giants game where he got some crucial 1st downs to that beautiful strip against baltimore after brady threw an int, and faulk turned into a defensive specialist and stripped the ball and they recovered.

[NewbieJr 540]

2008 Brady with Moss

 

4200 yds and 38 TD's

 

2008 Brady w/o Randy

 

3900 yds and 28 TD's ( Maroney's value would skyrocket here )

Pretty close. I was going to predict similar numbers.

[BigDaddy1978 0]

I say Brady doesn't throw more than 25 TDs in 2008-09. But the RBs will have a much bigger role and hopefully Bellichick will run Maroney as a more premiered back. But there's talk of him drafting a RB too which I think would just be jacked up if it happens before the fourth round.

[Mr. Dynasty 0]

I say Brady doesn't throw more than 25 TDs in 2008-09. But the RBs will have a much bigger role and hopefully Bellichick will run Maroney as a more premiered back. But there's talk of him drafting a RB too which I think would just be jacked up if it happens before the fourth round.

 

24

26

28

23

28

 

those are Brady's TD totals from '06 to '02 (when he played a full 16 games as a starter).

Over that 5 year period, he averaged just under 26 TDs per season (25.8).

In '04, Corey Dillon had a career year and NE rushed for over 2000 yards as a team.

I'm not sure that improving the rushing attack automatically diminishes the QBs passing TDs.

I could see Brady coming back down to earth, but I believe that his average season of 25.8 TDs will still have a slight up tic with the improved WRs.

I'd probably say that Brady will have NO FEWER than 25 TDs in 2008-09 and likely be right at/around 28.

[kutulu 1,548]

He will break his own record.

[Stewburtx8 67]

This question can only begin to be analyzed based on whether Randy Moss comes back. Will he? I have my doubts. He is worth A LOT more money than he is making. Will he want what he is worth? If so the Patriots have shown in the past that they aren't willing to spend this type of money. Now if Randy truly loves being a Patriot and playing with Tom Brady (which he should), then maybe he signs for less and returns. But this is STILL Randy Moss we're talking about, so who knows.

 

With Moss, I don't see how Brady isn't a 35 TD type guy. Randy is good for 15 TD's himself and makes all the receivers around him better.

 

Without Moss, Brady would likely return to his 25-28 TD range and the Pats would run the ball a lot more.

 

Great WR's make their QB's numbers much better. Look at TO with Romo this year or TO with McNabb in the past. Look at Edwards with Anderson. Look at Fitz and Boldin with Kurt Warner. When a already good QB has one of these "weapons" at the WR position, their numbers are going to increase.

[Foghorn Leghorn 0]

This question can only begin to be analyzed based on whether Randy Moss comes back. Will he? I have my doubts. He is worth A LOT more money than he is making. Will he want what he is worth? If so the Patriots have shown in the past that they aren't willing to spend this type of money. Now if Randy truly loves being a Patriot and playing with Tom Brady (which he should), then maybe he signs for less and returns. But this is STILL Randy Moss we're talking about, so who knows.

 

With Moss, I don't see how Brady isn't a 35 TD type guy. Randy is good for 15 TD's himself and makes all the receivers around him better.

 

Without Moss, Brady would likely return to his 25-28 TD range and the Pats would run the ball a lot more.

 

Great WR's make their QB's numbers much better. Look at TO with Romo this year or TO with McNabb in the past. Look at Edwards with Anderson. Look at Fitz and Boldin with Kurt Warner. When a already good QB has one of these "weapons" at the WR position, their numbers are going to increase.

 

I agree. If Moss is back next year, I don't see how Brady wouldn't get at least 35 TDs, unless he got injured.

[Mr. Dynasty 0]

This question can only begin to be analyzed based on whether Randy Moss comes back. Will he? I have my doubts. He is worth A LOT more money than he is making. Will he want what he is worth? If so the Patriots have shown in the past that they aren't willing to spend this type of money. Now if Randy truly loves being a Patriot and playing with Tom Brady (which he should), then maybe he signs for less and returns. But this is STILL Randy Moss we're talking about, so who knows.

 

With Moss, I don't see how Brady isn't a 35 TD type guy. Randy is good for 15 TD's himself and makes all the receivers around him better.

 

Without Moss, Brady would likely return to his 25-28 TD range and the Pats would run the ball a lot more.

 

Great WR's make their QB's numbers much better. Look at TO with Romo this year or TO with McNabb in the past. Look at Edwards with Anderson. Look at Fitz and Boldin with Kurt Warner. When a already good QB has one of these "weapons" at the WR position, their numbers are going to increase.

 

 

couple things here Stew.

 

#1. I'm assuming Moss will be back in NE. There are lots or reporters claiming that it's practically a done deal already but because of the CBA, NE and Moss can not sign the deal until the off-season.

 

#2. A "35 TD type guy" is a huge claim. The 30TD mark is frequently tossed around (especially in FFball) and I don't think people realize what an amazing plateau 30TDs is nevermind 35!

Only 11 QBs have tossed 35 or more TDs in a season. Some may be flukes (Beuerlein, Culpepper), some are old-timers (Blanda, Y.A. Tittle), some are newer (Brady, Manning, an Romo), and here's the list of guys that have done it twice:

- Dan Marino

- Brett Favre

- Steve Young

- Kurt Warner

 

now, I'm not saying Brady (or Manning or Romo) can't join that group of guys who've done it twice. They may. It's just that there's no such thing as a "35 TD guy". It's a rare accomplishment even for the greatest that ever played.

[Stewburtx8 67]

couple things here Stew.

 

#1. I'm assuming Moss will be back in NE. There are lots or reporters claiming that it's practically a done deal already but because of the CBA, NE and Moss can not sign the deal until the off-season.

 

#2. A "35 TD type guy" is a huge claim. The 30TD mark is frequently tossed around (especially in FFball) and I don't think people realize what an amazing plateau 30TDs is nevermind 35!

Only 11 QBs have tossed 35 or more TDs in a season. Some may be flukes (Beuerlein, Culpepper), some are old-timers (Blanda, Y.A. Tittle), some are newer (Brady, Manning, an Romo), and here's the list of guys that have done it twice:

- Dan Marino

- Brett Favre

- Steve Young

- Kurt Warner

 

now, I'm not saying Brady (or Manning or Romo) can't join that group of guys who've done it twice. They may. It's just that there's no such thing as a "35 TD guy". It's a rare accomplishment even for the greatest that ever played.

 

 

OK I'll agree 35 TD's may be a huge claim, BUT has the NFL not completely shifted to a PASSING league over the last few years? Many more teams are getting by with the pass first attitude and run the ball just to keep the other defense honest. And the Patriots are at the far extreme of this, as they sometimes go whole quarters without hardly running the ball. They just went 16-0, I don't think this will change. Brady also plays behind the best pass blocking line in the NFL, and rarely gets hit or sacked. His receiving core is perfectly built with Moss as the big play, demanding a double play guy; Welker is a tremendous over the middle, go to 3rd down guy; then mix in other nice deep threat in Stallworth and intermediate threats in Gaffney and Watson. IF, and this may be a big IF, this whole offense returns, why would Brady's production suddenly drop 20 TD's? I really don't see it.

 

Going back to my original point, there were 10 QB's in the nfl this year that threw for more than 25 TD's. There were 4 guys that threw for over 30 TD's. This was never the case in the past, as a Top 10 QB might throw 20 TD's. I just think the league has changed. The rules now give defensive backs little chance to defend a wide receiver anymore. If they touch them after 5 yards its a penalty. Then you can look at the WR position, when was the last time 10 WR's scored 10 or more TD's in the same year. A good receiving year used to be in the 7-9 TD range with some of the elite guys in the 12 TD range often. Three of the top 5 TD scorers overall this year were WR's. I'm just saying, the league has changed. Maybe calling anyone a consistent 35 TD type guy is still a little bit of a reach, but with Brady and IF he keeps the guys around him on offense, I'm willing to make that claim.

 

Just for the record, I'm an Eagles fan and I can't stand the Patriots.

[Mr. Dynasty 0]

OK I'll agree 35 TD's may be a huge claim, BUT has the NFL not completely shifted to a PASSING league over the last few years? Many more teams are getting by with the pass first attitude and run the ball just to keep the other defense honest. And the Patriots are at the far extreme of this, as they sometimes go whole quarters without hardly running the ball. They just went 16-0, I don't think this will change. Brady also plays behind the best pass blocking line in the NFL, and rarely gets hit or sacked. His receiving core is perfectly built with Moss as the big play, demanding a double play guy; Welker is a tremendous over the middle, go to 3rd down guy; then mix in other nice deep threat in Stallworth and intermediate threats in Gaffney and Watson. IF, and this may be a big IF, this whole offense returns, why would Brady's production suddenly drop 20 TD's? I really don't see it.

 

Going back to my original point, there were 10 QB's in the nfl this year that threw for more than 25 TD's. There were 4 guys that threw for over 30 TD's. This was never the case in the past, as a Top 10 QB might throw 20 TD's. I just think the league has changed. The rules now give defensive backs little chance to defend a wide receiver anymore. If they touch them after 5 yards its a penalty. Then you can look at the WR position, when was the last time 10 WR's scored 10 or more TD's in the same year. A good receiving year used to be in the 7-9 TD range with some of the elite guys in the 12 TD range often. Three of the top 5 TD scorers overall this year were WR's. I'm just saying, the league has changed. Maybe calling anyone a consistent 35 TD type guy is still a little bit of a reach, but with Brady and IF he keeps the guys around him on offense, I'm willing to make that claim.

 

Just for the record, I'm an Eagles fan and I can't stand the Patriots.

 

 

a well thought out, quality post.

nicely done.

 

 

Here's the reasons why I stand by my original thoughts/points that Brady will be back to the 25 - 29 TD range:

1. why would Brady's production suddenly drop 20 TD's? I really don't see it.

exhibit A: Peyton Manning. Why did Manning's TD totals suddenly drop 21 (49 to 28)? Because too many things have to line up perfectly to throw that many TD passes. IMO, it's a miracle that no NE WR or TE has had any significant injury. Really, it takes a number of factors to throw all those TDs including: health, weather, matchups, game-plan, etc.

 

2. The rules now give defensive backs little chance to defend a wide receiver anymore.

Agreed, but I believe they will come back to the middle a bit more on this. The first year this rule change (technically rule enforcement) came into play was Manning's 49 TD season (because Polian complained directly about NE's physical play). I think we've all watched some terrible PI calls play too big of a role in determining games. Neither the fans or the league wants this. They're going to have to let them play a bit more.

[BigDaddy1978 0]

I'm reviving this post because A) I think the Superbowl is a premonition of things to come and I still think it's a good topic. I'm curious what people have to say about Brady's numbers next year now that he's shown he is human afterall. Furthermore, what's the likelihood that Bellichick will let go of Randy Moss and go for Chad Johnson now that he's leaving Cincy?

[Phurfur 70]

No matter what he does, he will go too early for me to draft him. He will be the 1st QB off the board and could go in the 1st round in many drafts.

[shovelheadt 62]

Furthermore, what's the likelihood that Bellichick will let go of Randy Moss and go for Chad Johnson now that he's leaving Cincy?

 

Do you make this sh*t up as you go? Chad's going nowhere. Even if he was on the blocks, why would the Pats give up a better WR for him. And at this point (can't believe I'm saying this), Moss is actually more mature and stable.

[murf74 461]

Without Moss, no way does Brady come close to last year.

 

His highest TD total before Moss was 28.

[NorthernVike 2,080]

He may not throw 40 TD's next season, but I don't really see how he could not be the #1 QB again, or at the very worst a close second. Moss should still be there, Welker and Stallworth will be there, and the line will remain intact. Barring injury, I see him as having another great year.

 

 

After watching the SB I'm not so sure this is a good thing for Brady.

 

3800/25 solid not spectacular

[GiantsRule 0]

I'm spending a high pick next year on Peyton Manning. No way Manning lets Brady hold onto his record for long. Now that he's got his ring and his family is justified with Eli getting a ring, he'll go back to collecting passing records and "padding" his stats.

 

Peyton - 53 TDs and 5,000+ yards passing in 2008.

[Timinator 0]

A lot of questions surrounding Patriots this offseason. I've heard rumors about three major stumbling blocks for Brady in 2008...

 

1) Moss will expect to be paid and isn't above leaving NE to get both money and QB.

 

2) The defense will be revamped and may not leave the offense with as many opportunities.

 

3) Belicheck will be suspended by the NFL for the 2008 season for new proof of cheating.

 

Now, there's also the chance the team will pull its head out and actually try to run the ball and control the clock in 2008. And the luck of keeping everybody healthy might not happen again either.

 

Brady will post good numbers, but not 1st-round numbers. Be ware.

[gocolts 300]

I don't think there is any way Brady could have near the numbers he did this year. Teams(Colts, Ravens, Giants) started to figure out how to beat the Patriots. Don't let Brady have time to throw and stand in the pocket all day. All teams now know this and while I wouldn't be surprised to see Brady get 22-25 TDs , no way he gets near 35+ next season. Every year there are players you think are a lock that end up letting down on the stats. As someone else mention, he will go way too early in any draft for me. I am sure he will be gone in the 1st in most drafts and I know he will be gone 1st round in all my drafts.

 

And if he ends up on the cover of Madden, forget about it.

[Belushi 9]

Fortunately for the Pats they play in what will be a horrible division again next year, so they'll have a good chance to pad stats again. But I could see Belicheck maybe working on the ground game more after what happened in the Superbowl. Having to rely on the passing game to win it allowed the Giants to tee off on Brady every down since they weren't worried about Maroney. I think they work on a more balanced attack next year. They will still likely win 14-15 games next year, but I could see a more balanced, ball-control type of offence and more focus on the defence this off-season.

 

I see Brady in the 25-30 TD area for next year. They'll still be dominant, but I think better balanced. The offence really did slow down in the 2nd half of the season when things got colder.

[Walter34 3]

He will have good numbers but will not live up to his draft status. He will likely fall back to the pack of the top 5 qbs, but will be a poor 1st round pick for many FFers just as manning likely was in 2005.

 

Never chase last years stats.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Two things to consider:

- The Patriots are likely to change their approach. This was the first year where BB let them go with the offense first approach. It did not have the desired effect late in the season. Perhaps they will go with more run and less passing, particularly late in games early in the season

- Don't you think that the Colts are going to make a run at Moss? Harrison may be done and the Colts would LOVE to have someone like Moss to fill that spot AND take away from the Patriots. Don't you think that something like that would elevate Manning into a situation where he is going after 51 TD's?

 

Just some thoughts.

[TUM301 10]

Brady 2008, 4100/32 and 10 picks. Pats 13 or 14 wins and another extended playoff run!

[Voice_Of_Reason 0]

I could be wrong. But the reason I think QB's who throw for 40+ TD's one year and the next fall back to earth has more to do with how opposing defenses handle them the next season. Take a look at how the later part of the season played for the Pats. Wins were a little harder to come by. Closer games etc. Then the Giants come in a put a rush on Brady to slow the team down. I'd imagine, the Pats would be wise to run a bit more and force teams to defend against the run. The Giants pretty much rushed 4 and defended against the pass. If the Pats throw as much as they did this season, more and more teams will play this sort of defense. And it will effect the total stat line for the passing game.

 

I certainly don't think 30 TD's is out of the question. But I'd expect the running game to take a bit more of a role next year.

[murf74 461]

Two things to consider:

- The Patriots are likely to change their approach. This was the first year where BB let them go with the offense first approach. It did not have the desired effect late in the season. Perhaps they will go with more run and less passing, particularly late in games early in the season

- Don't you think that the Colts are going to make a run at Moss? Harrison may be done and the Colts would LOVE to have someone like Moss to fill that spot AND take away from the Patriots. Don't you think that something like that would elevate Manning into a situation where he is going after 51 TD's?

 

Just some thoughts.

 

That almost sounds like you are saying they ran up the score late in games early in the season. Hmmmm, I think I may have said that a few times but was called a hater??????

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

That almost sounds like you are saying they ran up the score late in games early in the season. Hmmmm, I think I may have said that a few times but was called a hater??????

 

They passed more often than they ran this season, particularly early on. Read into that what you want because I know that you are looking for any twist you can.

 

You are still a hater no matter how you slice it.

[redtodd 7]

That almost sounds like you are saying they ran up the score late in games early in the season. Hmmmm, I think I may have said that a few times but was called a hater??????

 

I can't believe anyone would call you a hater. Just because you post more about the Patriots than any single Patriot fan on here doesn't make you a hater.

 

Weird.

[BigDaddy1978 0]

Do you make this sh*t up as you go? Chad's going nowhere. Even if he was on the blocks, why would the Pats give up a better WR for him. And at this point (can't believe I'm saying this), Moss is actually more mature and stable.

 

Unless I'm completely mistaken...I had heard that Chad wants nothing more to do with Cincinnati and even said if they kept him, he wouldn't play. I hadn't heard anything more about it, but that seemed pretty definitive to me, so if someone knows differently, fill me in. Furthermore, NE didn't franchise Moss in the time frame allowed, so he IS currently an unrestricted free agent.

 

So far I agree with the notion that most likely the Pats will try a more balanced attack next year centered on the run, which is likely going to make Maroney a stud pickup next year, assuming he starts seeing the bulk of the carries. One way or the other his production is going to pick up I'm sure. But the main point of this whole conversation is whether or not Brady is going to be worth the #1 / 1st rounder / 1st QB off the boards that people are predicting? I for one don't think so, and I've maintained that in the past, regardless of what has happened from one year to the next anyone who does well one year, has not done nearly as well the following year. Even if they had a solid year, it wasn't a performance worthy of the draft position they would bolster when they were doing well.

[BigDaddy1978 0]

bump