LOD01 199 Posted March 12, 2008 i'm confused. the vehicle - putting away money pre-tax and letting it compound over time is a farce?or are you saying you're poorly allocated? I'm saying if people think they are going to be able to live off it in retirement, they are sadly mistaken. Some will but the vast majority are being fooled into thinking that they just have to sock away $ and by 62 or so, they will be some sort of millionaire. I have no 401k. I have a pension. I get $ until I am dead. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thekris 0 Posted March 12, 2008 did people give up on sirius? i see that stock is always one of the most traded but always sits at the level of the wwe... I bought some Sirius a month or so ago when it was around $3. Now that it's closer to $2.70 I'm gonna buy some more of it. I figure when the merger goes through it'll jump. And if it doesn't go through and the stock plummets, it's less than $3 a share and I have other stock doing well enough to offset the loss. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RLLD 4,275 Posted March 12, 2008 The stimulus checks will boost the economy for a 2-4 month span no doubt. Call is fake if you wan't. But non the less, millions of dollars will be poring into the economy whether its delivery pizza order increase to walmart basic needs. I think you should change the dates to August, Sept, Oct building up for the big vote. Fair enough....but I am looking at was is emerging outside of those checks..... You see, I think those checks coincide with mortgage and credit rates tweaking downward sometime in April and May, which will then coincide with good weather to inspire spending, and people will return to the housing market and everyone will declare a bottom and victory over the slowdown.... At the very same time that this is all transpiring a trillion dollars worth of mortgages will reset to a higher place and by June and July this will be very much evident, by August the foreclosures rise, by September thay are staggering.... the credit crunch we saw in 2007 will be half of what we encounter in 2008.... JMHO, and just because I called it with complete accuracy last year does not mean i will hit it this year....but you never know... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LOD01 199 Posted March 12, 2008 Oops! Up 416 today. Helicopter Ben Bukkake flies in, floods the market with 200B and creates a dead cat bounce that you cheer. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bert 1,128 Posted March 12, 2008 I have a pension. I get $ until I am dead. Which won't be very long if that is all you are living on. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LOD01 199 Posted March 12, 2008 not crazy talk at all. all these 401k plans are the same "drive-thru", "give us your money", schtick. the real benefit doesn't seem to be any of the "investment vehicles" offered by these clowns but rather the employer match/stock options/profit sharing that is added to your 401k in addition to you own contributions. It doesn't matter what company or industry you are in, the 401k sales-bimbo is the same everywhere with her formulaic investment "strategy" based on your age and "tolerance for risk". It's crap. In the end, if the stock market is up, your 401k is up. Their whole plan is based on the notion that the stock market has ALWAYS trended upwards. *IF* by some chance that doesn't happen; *IF* the stock market doesn't rise at the same pace it has over the last 40 years, 401ks will be a scam: one that millions of people dumped billions of dollars into. TD Ryan2 gets it. Market is a flatline since 1999. The money put in before 1999 has zero gains for most 401k's over the last 9 years. You have gains on some $ (that invested around late 2002 - 2003 to now). Someone starting in those years, thinks everything is fantastic. Probably close to a double. (this based on the fact that most 401k investors are tied to the overall market). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LOD01 199 Posted March 12, 2008 I agree with all that you said, especially about the dumbasses trying to give investment advice, but I believe the "farce" comment was directed at the companies providing 401k plans to their employees. At my company, we match 100% up to 5% with immediate full vesting. Basically, you double your money as soon as it is taken from your paycheck. How is that a "farce"? Sounds great doesn't it. Unless the market is a flatline, like it has been for the past 9 years. I thought it was fantastic at first too. Until I ran the numbers under a less than ideal market, which you are seeing. Calculate the % return you need to retire on and see if you are meeting it over the last 9 years. The majority of people fall well short. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bert 1,128 Posted March 12, 2008 Fair enough....but I am looking at was is emerging outside of those checks..... You see, I think those checks coincide with mortgage and credit rates tweaking downward sometime in April and May, which will then coincide with good weather to inspire spending, and people will return to the housing market and everyone will declare a bottom and victory over the slowdown.... At the very same time that this is all transpiring a trillion dollars worth of mortgages will reset to a higher place and by June and July this will be very much evident, by August the foreclosures rise, by September thay are staggering.... the credit crunch we saw in 2007 will be half of what we encounter in 2008.... JMHO, and just because I called it with complete accuracy last year does not mean i will hit it this year....but you never know... So short the financials and go long on multi-national energy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kutulu 1,703 Posted March 12, 2008 Oh, it ended up for the day. Forget what I said. Everything is cool. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DanXIII 8 Posted March 12, 2008 with the market plunging..i cant afford a wager..unless its for govt cheese i just put in every month to sharebuilder...google and markel(mkl)...im happy with these 2..though i should scoop up one of the oldie but goodies that has a nice dividend... did people give up on sirius? i see that stock is always one of the most traded but always sits at the level of the wwe... Check out Caterpillar. I heard this morning they are projecting 5-15% growth next quarter thanks to the weak dollar/exports. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RLLD 4,275 Posted March 12, 2008 Check out Caterpillar. I heard this morning they are projecting 5-15% growth next quarter thanks to the weak dollar/exports. Absolutely, our trade deficit will suddenly appear to diminish, causing people like the president and other to celebreate, which is focking stupid.... We can start celebrating that aspect when it is our exports that close it, not our devalued currency.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TD Ryan2 316 Posted March 12, 2008 it's called inflation. are you suggesting that people shouldn't put any money away? i'd rather have 1 million bucks and be able to afford some milk than have nothing. do you think social security and pensions will be there for the upcoming generations?what is your suggestion or better alternative? not at all suggesting people shouldn't put money away. all I'm saying is that the 401ks that everyone is in won't be the wonderful retirement solution that all these "financial advisers" claim they will be. what's a better alternative? I don't know. As I said, the employee match is the appealing part of it. But I'd bet that if you had half decent investment advice, you would do much better in the markets outside of these 401ks. getting that individual attention is the tough part because we're all "small fish". We're all to small to really command any individual attention. but when you think about the amount of money you dump into your 401k each month... $200, $400, $600 for most? That's a lot of money fand it bothers me that you don't get and can't expect more out of "experts" investing your 401k money. Why are you such an ardent defender of 401ks and the financial institutions that peddle them? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Birdseed 1 Posted March 12, 2008 Why are you such an ardent defender of 401ks and the financial institutions that peddle them? Who is defending the financial institutions that peddle them? That's right - nobody. What we are defending is that 401Ks are the best thing going right now for accumulating money for retirement. If you don't think they are the best thing going, please inform us of better alternatives. Maybe you think paying taxes every year on the interest you earn on your savings account is a better option - I don't know. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TD Ryan2 316 Posted March 12, 2008 What we are defending is that 401Ks are the best thing going right now for accumulating money for retirement. OK, so let's say they are the best thing we've got going right now. Do you believe that people are going to be able to retire on their 401ks with a million+ dollars? That's the sales pitch everyone under the age of 40 gets and all I'm saying is it's not realistic; it isn't going to happen; 401ks aren't the retirement solution that everyone is planning on them being. Just because 401ks are the best option available right now doesn't mean they're going make things rosy for everyone in the future. IF you had a competent investor managing your money, would you do better in the end than you will with a 401k? or rather can someone who knows what they're doing out-earn the match and tax benefits that a 401k will provide? Because at this point, the only real benefit of the 401k is the match and tax benefit it provides, not the market earnings. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Birdseed 1 Posted March 12, 2008 can someone who knows what they're doing out-earn the match and tax benefits that a 401k will provide? There's no focking way. Let's say the market stays flat forever. The smallest match that I've heard of is 50%. Show me a money manager who can earn a 50% yearly return on your money over the life of your employment, and I'll be the first to sign up. Because at this point, the only real benefit of the 401k is the match and tax benefit it provides, not the market earnings. Are you kidding me? The only real benefit? What more do you want, in addition to free money and a tax shelter for it? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TD Ryan2 316 Posted March 12, 2008 There's no focking way. Let's say the market stays flat forever. The smallest match that I've heard of is 50%. Show me a money manager who can earn a 50% yearly return on your money a 50% match on 100% of your contributions is pretty generous. I think the maximum allowable amount you can put into a 401k per year is $15,000 (or so). If you have a match that will give you $7500 on top of the $15000 you've already put in, that's pretty generous (and maybe the $15k cap includes the match... I don't know the exact numbers, but 50% match part is what I'm talking about here regardless of the cap) Most matches I've seen only match the first 10% or 20% of your contributions... and some are as low as the first 3%, 5% or 10%. If you put $15,000 in, they only match the first $1500. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Birdseed 1 Posted March 12, 2008 a 50% match on 100% of your contributions is pretty generous. I think the maximum allowable amount you can put into a 401k per year is $15,000 (or so). If you have a match that will give you $7500 on top of the $15000 you've already put in that pretty generous. Most matches I've seen only match the first 10% or 20% of your contributions... and some are as low as the first 5% or 10%. If you put $15,000 in, they only match the first $1500. The maximums are about $15,000 for your contributions and about $15,000 for employer contributions, so $30,000 total a year. Like I stated earlier, my 401K matches 100% of our contributions with full immediate vesting. Most people I know have a 50% match. I try to stay close to the maximum, but it is tough with 3 kids. Bonus money and discretionary profit sharing is also eligible for the match. There is also a Roth 401K which allows you to put in after-tax dollars. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Franknbeans 46 Posted March 12, 2008 OK, so let's say they are the best thing we've got going right now. Do you believe that people are going to be able to retire on their 401ks with a million+ dollars? That's the sales pitch everyone under the age of 40 gets and all I'm saying is it's not realistic; it isn't going to happen; 401ks aren't the retirement solution that everyone is planning on them being. Just because 401ks are the best option available right now doesn't mean they're going make things rosy for everyone in the future. IF you had a competent investor managing your money, would you do better in the end than you will with a 401k? or rather can someone who knows what they're doing out-earn the match and tax benefits that a 401k will provide? Because at this point, the only real benefit of the 401k is the match and tax benefit it provides, not the market earnings. I agree it is not what they're cracked up to be for the simple fact that most 20 somethings (the time frame most advisers use to begin investing and reach $1 mil by retirement age) don't have the money to fund their accounts. Well, they do, but they choose to spend it on flashy wheels, beer and big screen TV's (did I mention hookers?) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TD Ryan2 316 Posted March 12, 2008 Like I stated earlier, my 401K matches 100% of our contributions with full immediate vesting. that's a good deal for you. I'm curious what the average "match" is for 401ks out there. 100% match on every dollar you contribute is insane. even a 50% match on every dollar you contribute is fantastic. I don't think many 401k matches are that good (though I could be wrong). Most the matches I've heard of are only on the first 10% of every dollar you put in and the sales bimbo's wording is something like this: - a 100% match on the first 10% of your contribution up to a maximum of "x" - a 50% match on the first 20% of your contribution up to a maximum of "x" - a 100% match on the first 6% of your contribution up a maximum of "x" so people say they have 100% match or 50% match... but that match is only on a small percentage of what you contribute, not on every dollar you're putting in. Like I said, if that's the plan you have and the match you're getting, it's fantastic. I'm just not sure that all of the 401ks out there are as good as that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kutulu 1,703 Posted March 12, 2008 When the support breaks it will be a quick ride down. Next stop 10,800 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Birdseed 1 Posted March 12, 2008 When the support breaks it will be a quick ride down. Next stop 10,800 I think your indicator is trailing. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kutulu 1,703 Posted March 12, 2008 I think your indicator is trailing. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Franknbeans 46 Posted March 12, 2008 I think your indicator is trailing. his indicator is black trailing Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bert 1,128 Posted March 12, 2008 that's a good deal for you. I'm curious what the average "match" is for 401ks out there. 100% match on every dollar you contribute is insane. even a 50% match on every dollar you contribute is fantastic. I don't think many 401k matches are that good (though I could be wrong). Most the matches I've heard of are only on the first 10% of every dollar you put in and the sales bimbo's wording is something like this: - a 100% match on the first 10% of your contribution up to a maximum of "x" - a 50% match on the first 20% of your contribution up to a maximum of "x" - a 100% match on the first 6% of your contribution up a maximum of "x" so people say they have 100% match or 50% match... but that match is only on a small percentage of what you contribute, not on every dollar you're putting in. Like I said, if that's the plan you have and the match you're getting, it's fantastic. I'm just not sure that all of the 401ks out there are as good as that. Sounds like your problem is your wack job sale's bimbo. Our company is pretty average. My company matchs 100% up to 5% of my salary and we use TRowePrice. Do the math. If I make 100k, I contribute 15K, the company matches 5K. That's 5K in free money or a 33% bonus for doing absolutely nothing. If your company chooses a sh@tty administrator with limited investment options that is not the fault of the 401(k); that is the fault of your craptastic management team. Turning down free money is not smart. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Quickolas1 80 Posted March 12, 2008 Like I said, if that's the plan you have and the match you're getting, it's fantastic. I'm just not sure that all of the 401ks out there are as good as that. I believe the average employer will match somewhere between 3-5% of what you contribute. Sometimes you get 3% match if you put in 3% (i.e. 100% match up to 3%). Sometimes you get 50% match up to 6% (i.e. if you put in 6...employer will put in 3. If you put in 5...employer will put in 2.5). Some employers don't match anything. I could be wrong, but my point is I don't think you understand the nature of the 401K. It's simply the IRS rule for a group retirement plan that let's you put away money pre-tax and let it grow tax-deferred. Taxes and inflation are the two killers in retirement. Uncle Sam let's you get away with a few things, but there's very few ways to get pure tax-free growth. You were also saying you don't like the cookie-cutter template of 401k plans. Unfortuntely though, as you've seen in this thread, there are people who have averaged flatline (i'm assuming 0% rate of return) because they make poor choices. I just pulled up one random moderate allocation fund here. Last 10 years...7.7% rate of return (see load adjusted returns, the second grouping down). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=AMECX Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RLLD 4,275 Posted March 13, 2008 Oops! Up 416 today. Uh ohhhhh, might want to hold tightly to the day of "victory" before declaring all is well there....Kevin.... Dow 11,923.49 -233.32 (-1.92%) Rink Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RLLD 4,275 Posted March 14, 2008 Oops again.... Dow 11,910.30 -235.44 (-1.94% Rink Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
edjr 6,898 Posted March 14, 2008 Oops again....Rink I sold my mutual funds in the nick of time. in almost 2 focking years. the fund started at 8.90 and is at 8.78 right now. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RLLD 4,275 Posted March 14, 2008 I sold my mutual funds in the nick of time. in almost 2 focking years. the fund started at 8.90 and is at 8.78 right now. It will be up some days, and then right back down on others....Bernanke is fighting it with alot of effort.... In the end, he does not have juice unless they get to the point where they will nationalize the banks. Then watch the banks start finally writing off those losses in droves.....this is good because it was the final piece that fixed the Japanese struggles when they went through this.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kutulu 1,703 Posted March 14, 2008 The whole focking thing is a house of cards. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
edjr 6,898 Posted March 14, 2008 HOW LOW CAN YOU GO? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RLLD 4,275 Posted March 14, 2008 HOW LOW CAN YOU GO? The United States is in a recession that could be "substantially more severe" than recent ones, National Bureau of Economic Research President Martin Feldstein said on Friday."The situation is very bad, the situation is getting worse, and the risks are that it could get very bad," Feldstein said in a speech at the Futures Industry Association meeting in Boca Raton, Florida. "There's no doubt that this year and next year are going to be very difficult years." Rink REAL LOW......this is the first one I have read which has a more chilling assessment than my own..... I hope all the venom I have been spewing about this sh!t for the last two years is explained by this point, perhaps not....but maybe when people start getting hurt by this their tune will change.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kutulu 1,703 Posted March 14, 2008 Rink REAL LOW......this is the first one I have read which has a more chilling assessment than my own..... Please. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RLLD 4,275 Posted March 14, 2008 Please. Whhhaaaaaat.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Recliner Pilot 61 Posted April 18, 2008 When the support breaks it will be a quick ride down. Next stop 10,800 Off by 2000, but who's counting. Dow 12,849.36 +228.87 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Recliner Pilot 61 Posted April 18, 2008 That's right,just looky at what a $200 billion infusion from the Fed can do.....hmmmmmm, I wonder what happens next week, and the week after and the next month as those resets start to ravage the market and then the economy. A little over a month from your post and we are up over 1000. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RLLD 4,275 Posted April 18, 2008 A little over a month from your post and we are up over 1000. You are honestly missing the entire point, aren't you, I mean....you aren't being "torrid" and ignoring it, you are truly missing it... All this time I thought it was an act, but you are serious.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kutulu 1,703 Posted April 19, 2008 Off by 2000, but who's counting. Dow 12,849.36 +228.87 I am. :wall: Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kutulu 1,703 Posted April 19, 2008 Also, today saw the market bust thru some major resistance. If that now becomes support, you will have something to crow about. link Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Recliner Pilot 61 Posted April 19, 2008 You are honestly missing the entire point, aren't you, I mean....you aren't being "torrid" and ignoring it, you are truly missing it... All this time I thought it was an act, but you are serious.... I thought your point was all hell was gonna break loose in about a month. C'mon, you can't be right all the time. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
