When to take Marvin Harrison?

[martyj13 1]

10 team standard league - 6 points TD reception, 1 point 10 yards

 

Picking #1

 

In mock drafts, 5th round

 

Marvin Harrison is always around. Is it too soon to take him when you have WRs like Santonio Holmes, Calvin Johnson and B. Marshall still on the board?

 

I figure to take a chance and grab Anthony Gonzalez late. Is he worth the risk? Any thoughts?

[Mike FF Today 613]

I just did a draft last night - Shootout 2008 where Harrison went at 4.10. This league is a little different from the norm (11 teams, only start 2 WRs) but it looks he's going in the 5th round currently.

 

I would take Holmes, Marshall, and even give Calvin Johnson some thought before taking Harrison. Even if he makes the starting lineup Week 1, the injury risk is too high for my liking.

[joefry 0]

MH has Issac Bruce written all over him. Not worth an early pick, imo.

[16 and 33 0]

Good example of when mock ADP is less than useful. In July, draft picks and young guys with potential have an inflated ADP, and as August rolls on their is a flight to quality...or rather proven veterans.

 

Despite numerous question marks, Marvin's ADP plummeted from mid-60s two weeks ago to mid 40s.

 

That's about 3-5 rounds sooner than I am willing to take him. We'll se what happens in our draft in a few weeks. Personally I would much rather take Holmes, Jennins, Calvin or Bowe around then, so unless something odd happens on draft I'll pass and take a better value pick.

[itsbigmoni 1]

I'm staying away from Harrison. I think he's just gonna be too unpredictable with the injury concerns and the whole gun thing. I'd take the WR's you listed over Harrison.

[coyote-kid 0]

I'm staying away from Harrison. I think he's just gonna be too unpredictable with the injury concerns and the whole gun thing. I'd take the WR's you listed over Harrison.

 

Watch him come back and lite it up, lol!!!

[Franknbeans 46]

I haven't seen him last past the 5th round in real drafts. Of course, I selected him in the only 2 drafts I've been in, at 5.6 and 5.7. The one where I drafted him at 5.7, someone a few picks after me would have taken him.

[Zackattack 0]

A old reciever with weak knees. He relies on his speed and ability to cut quick to make plays. He can't use size or stregth to his advantage. I see him as a decoy who will have down season.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

This is the problem I have with mocks. In mocks, people tend to go more "by the book" ADP wise. In real drafts, people are more prone to reach for the guys they want, those with upside, sleeper picks, etc.

[Curt Sminkey 0]

Is Harrison really that banged up? I haven't really done any homework on this guy and I see him going real late in mock drafts and it amazes me that a year or two ago he was one of the premier WR's, now he's nothing more than a WR3.

 

Given his age and injuries last year, he's definately a gamble. But I wouldn't be completely shocked if he came back and lit it up. I'll gladly take a chance on him in the 5th or 6th rounds if he's there.

[WhiteWonder 2,249]

its a tough question because many people want to view harrison as his former pro bowl self.

 

i think that even if he comes back with any form he can put up stats better than some of those WR's you listed simply because he is marvin harrison, he plays for the colts, and peyton manning throws him the ball.

 

but he most likely wont ever revert completely to his old form. not only is he comming off injury but hes old.

 

that said id prefer to let someone else gamble on him but if its the 6th round and i need a 3rd WR and the other options are less than stellar, ill be happy to grab him and cross my fingers.

[snarky 0]

marvin is 36 going on 32. reasons?

 

 

1. he's kept himself in excellent shape.

 

2. he's slim therefore his knees don't take a pounding.

 

3. he never takes a big hit....hell, he hardly takes a hit, big or small.

 

 

marvin is undervalued. don't sleep.

[deejsixer 0]

His injury is not a major concern for me. It's not like he gets hurt every year. He stays healthy for the most part. He is a reciever that avoids contact and runs short patterns and falls or an out route and gets out of bounds. I think he goes for 70/1000/8.

[kmbryant09 1]

The injury is a slight concern for me, but only because of how skeptical the Colts were last year. It seemed every week he was probable or at least questionable, and never played...I've got to believe the reports are accurate that Harrison is 100% and the Colts are simply easing him back into things.

 

IF he is healthy and near 100% for the majority of the season - I think he'll be one of the steals of the draft. I'm tired of hearing the "he's old excuse" as to why he's not going to be productive. Look at the seasons he's put up when he was 32, 33, 34...basically up until his injury last year. Certainly he has begun passing the torch onto Wayne (so has Manning), but I tend to believe the emergence of Dallas Clark (unprecedented 11 TDs) and late emergence of A. Gonzalez were in part because of Harrison's absence. I think if he plays 15-16 games, Harrison should be looking at 80/1100/9 - a steal in the 5th round

[Junkie 0]

marvin is 36 going on 32. reasons?

1. he's kept himself in excellent shape.

 

2. he's slim therefore his knees don't take a pounding.

 

3. he never takes a big hit....hell, he hardly takes a hit, big or small.

marvin is undervalued. don't sleep.

 

Well said, snarky... I would be very happy to get him in the 5th round. I think he will put up WR2 #'s simply because of the offense he's in. Now, if his injury news gets worse I may change my tune. Right now, though, all indications are that he'll be back and will contribute.

[VaTerp 0]

The injury is a slight concern for me, but only because of how skeptical the Colts were last year. It seemed every week he was probable or at least questionable, and never played...I've got to believe the reports are accurate that Harrison is 100% and the Colts are simply easing him back into things.

 

IF he is healthy and near 100% for the majority of the season - I think he'll be one of the steals of the draft. I'm tired of hearing the "he's old excuse" as to why he's not going to be productive. Look at the seasons he's put up when he was 32, 33, 34...basically up until his injury last year. Certainly he has begun passing the torch onto Wayne (so has Manning), but I tend to believe the emergence of Dallas Clark (unprecedented 11 TDs) and late emergence of A. Gonzalez were in part because of Harrison's absence. I think if he plays 15-16 games, Harrison should be looking at 80/1100/9 - a steal in the 5th round

 

I think age is a legit concern b/c when many NFL players fall off they tend to do so rather suddenly. I was reading an article on Wr stat trends and it stated that 36 was the age where the top WRs saw the sharpest drop in production. Harrison will be 36 in a few weeks.

 

That said I think that Harrison deserves the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. Ive been going back and forth on Harrison so I decided to look at the stats of the WR who he compares to the most statistically, the great Jerry Rice. In 1998, at the age of 36 and coming off of a serious knee injury the previous year, Rice produced 82/1157/9. Amazingly similar to your projected stats for Harrison in a very similar situation.

 

Harrison in the 5th is defintely looking like a steal. Im afraid though as the season approaches and real drafts get under way that his ADP will creep up and people will start taking him regularly in the 4th. Still could be pretty good value but also some risk there. But as I said I think Marv should get the benefit of the doubt provided there are no setbacks this pre-season. I think he's in for a solid year even if he's days as a stud Wr are over.

[gocolts 300]

I like Marvin in the 5th myself. Seems about right without reaching.

[9-Route 0]

harrison's situation reminds me of the alicia silverstone quote from the movie 'clueless' : "oh, she's not pretty, she's a monet: it looks good from far away, but up close it's a big old mess".

 

we saw marvin jogging some routes last week, catching some soft tosses, and that was nice. but when it comes to fullspeed, he will have lingering effects from the knee surgeries. he had not one, but both knees with issue/scoped. as a guy whose game is predicated upon fullthrottle cuts and manuevers, he has high likelihood of experiencing chronic pain, swelling, and treatment that will all complicate any ability to remain both in the lineup or perform consistently.

 

you mentioned the GOAT posting his 80-1150-9 season his final campaign in SF; that and his other two 1000yd seasons in oakland are 3 of the only 5 such seasons for a wr aged 36+yrs. the other two? jimmy smith and joey galloway [last yr] with barely 1000yds. ellard, carter, fryar, brown, bruce, joiner, largent, lofton, maynard, and monk are all receivers who did not post 1000yds after age 36yrs [some posted stats at age 35, but not thereafter].

 

lastly, the possibly most telling data point is that manning proved he does not need harrison to post his 4000-30 ultra stats. he will not feel an absolute pressure to reinvolve harrison into the rotation---if it's not open or available, he will easily look elsewhere and remain productive/on schedule.

 

i personally see harrison as i do andre johnson: both are capable of posting high stats, but come with established risk. i'd only draft them if i already had 2 wrs and these players were my wr3 i'm hoping posts stats of a wr1---if not, i'm not burned. it is not prudent to rely on these players as a wr1 or wr2. one has age, injury, and history against him; the other is a former track star who always seems to pull/strain something.

[VaTerp 0]

harrison's situation reminds me of the alicia silverstone quote from the movie 'clueless' : "oh, she's not pretty, she's a monet: it looks good from far away, but up close it's a big old mess".

 

we saw marvin jogging some routes last week, catching some soft tosses, and that was nice. but when it comes to fullspeed, he will have lingering effects from the knee surgeries. he had not one, but both knees with issue/scoped. as a guy whose game is predicated upon fullthrottle cuts and manuevers, he has high likelihood of experiencing chronic pain, swelling, and treatment that will all complicate any ability to remain both in the lineup or perform consistently.

 

you mentioned the GOAT posting his 80-1150-9 season his final campaign in SF; that and his other two 1000yd seasons in oakland are 3 of the only 5 such seasons for a wr aged 36+yrs. the other two? jimmy smith and joey galloway [last yr] with barely 1000yds. ellard, carter, fryar, brown, bruce, joiner, largent, lofton, maynard, and monk are all receivers who did not post 1000yds after age 36yrs [some posted stats at age 35, but not thereafter].

 

lastly, the possibly most telling data point is that manning proved he does not need harrison to post his 4000-30 ultra stats. he will not feel an absolute pressure to reinvolve harrison into the rotation---if it's not open or available, he will easily look elsewhere and remain productive/on schedule.

 

i personally see harrison as i do andre johnson: both are capable of posting high stats, but come with established risk. i'd only draft them if i already had 2 wrs and these players were my wr3 i'm hoping posts stats of a wr1---if not, i'm not burned. it is not prudent to rely on these players as a wr1 or wr2. one has age, injury, and history against him; the other is a former track star who always seems to pull/strain something.

 

All good points.

 

In regards to Peyton Manning though I think thats a factor in Harrison's favor. Peyton doesnt need Marvin to put up his numbers but the two of them have had such a chemistry over the years that I dont see that just disappearing if Marvin is close to being healthy.

 

Also, of all the Wrs over 35 how many of them played with a future HOF QB? Rice had Young and Harrison has Manning. Without looking it up Im going to guess that none of the other guys on that list played with a QB of the quality of Young or Manning.

 

As I said, I agree that the concerns are there but Harrison looking at you in the 5th will be pretty good value. My main league is a 2 RB, 2 WR, and a flex start and I tend to wait on Wrs. I would be comfortable with Harrison as my WR2 and making sure that I try to grab a WR3 that I feel has upside and/or is a consistent PPR producer.

[ILikeTacos 0]

Gents (and perhaps the occasional lady),

I personally have a hard time labeling MH as an injury risk bc he had one year that he was injury ridden. As such, I believe that he is a steal in the 5th (despite his age). That being said, I was writing to thank everyone for their thoughts. I think this is one of the better threads on fftoday in a time - very insightful from both points of view (and no flames).

Best,

Mike

[9-Route 0]

actually, terp, different guys helped.

 

rice caught those 80-1100-9 from young in that superstat '98 season, when young posted a monster 4000yds, 36TDs and rushed for 6TDs.

 

his other two 1000+yd performances [1100-9, 1200-7] were in oakland with a pass happy offense led by an older, polished rich gannon.

 

jimmy smith posted his 1000-6 with lead-legged byron leftwich.

 

joey galloway did it last yr with jeff garcia.

 

i think we are in agreement that he is a risk; our difference is where in a draft we would accept his risk.