New 10/14 Poll shows Obama leading by 14%

[Uh-huh 0]

Perhaps the CBS poll that shows Barack Obama with a 14-point lead among likely voters (12 points when third-party candidates are included) is a modest outlier.

 

But if so, John McCain has more and more outliers that he has to explain away these days.

 

There are now no fewer than seven current national polls that show Obama with a double-digit advantage: Newsweek (+11), ABC/Post (+10), Democracy Corps (+10), Research 2000 (+10), Battleground (+13), Gallup (+10 using their Likely Voter II model) and now this CBS News poll.

 

These are balanced by other results that show the race a hair tighter. Our model now projects that, were an election held today, Obama would win by 8.1 points. It also expects that the race is more likely than not to tighten some.

 

Nevertheless, we are a full month beyond the Lehman Brothers collapse in mid-September. Obama has enjoyed quite a remarkable run, turning a 2-point deficit into an 8-point advantage. What's especially remarkable about it is that Obama's lead has continued to increase with an eerily consistency. The collapse itself precipitated an almost immediate 3 or 4 point gain in Obama's poll numbers, moving him from a point or so down to a point or so ahead. But since then, Obama has won news cycle after news cycle, adding another two points or so to his national lead every week.

 

It's fairly unusual for a candidate to have such a sustained run of momentum so deep into the campaign cycle. And it does appear to be real momentum, with some real feedback loops: the worse McCain's poll numbers become, the more desperate his campaign looks, and the more desperate his campaign looks, the worse his poll numbers become.

 

McCain now has to go on a run of his own, a large enough run to wipe at least 8 points off of Obama's lead, and perhaps more like 9 or 10 to cover his inferior position in the Electoral College and the votes that Obama is banking in early and absentee balloting. It is imperative that McCain does not just draw tomorrow night's debate, does not just win a victory on points, but emerges with a resounding victory, the sort that leaves the spin room gasping for air. Failing that, we are getting into dead girl, live boy territory.

 

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/cbs...ll-preempt.html

...the topline number is indeed Obama 53, McCain 39, although the version that we prefer -- with third party candidates included -- gives Obama "only" a 12-point lead.

 

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/tod...polls-1014.html

 

Enjoy the rest of your day

 

Uh-huh

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

Nah Nah Nah Nah! Hey Hey Hey! Goooodbye!

[posty 2,700]

I would listen to Zogby and Rasmussen way before CBS, Newsweek and others that definitely ask way more of a percentage of Democrats than a fairer average that Zogby/Rasmussen does...

[Uh-huh 0]

I would listen to Zogby and Rasmussen way before CBS, Newsweek and others that definitely ask way more of a percentage of Democrats than a fairer average that Zogby/Rasmussen does...

 

Ok:

 

There are now no fewer than seven current national polls that show Obama with a double-digit advantage:

Newsweek (+11),

ABC/Post (+10),

Democracy Corps (+10),

Research 2000 (+10),

Battleground (+13),

Gallup (+10 using their Likely Voter II model)

and now this CBS News poll.

 

But national polls don't matter, anyhow. EVs are all that matters:

 

Obama 361, McCain 177 (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)

Obama 357, McCain 181 (http://www.electoral-vote.com/)

Obama 364, McCain 174 (http://www.intrade.com/)

Obama 264, McCain 174, 100 tossup (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/)

 

Hmm. Not looking too good for McCain there, either.

[posty 2,700]

Ok:

 

Yes I know that they are "national" polls, but Zogby uses a sample size of like 39% Democrat, 33% Republican and the rest Independents...

 

Partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.3% Democratic, 33.0% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated...

 

I would love to see what the "national" polls use in weighting targets, but I doubt it is this realistic average...

 

But getting back to your initial post, yes things don't look to promising for McCain, but this still isn't over... 21 days is an eternity in politics...

[Brad GLuckman 519]

This election ended the day the day the financial crisis hit.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

this still isn't over... 21 days is an eternity in politics...

 

I'd say the odds are about as good that he'll expire of old age in the next 21 days as being elected President.

[Voltaire 5,316]

Things are looking rough for McCain he needs everything to break his way and has no margin for error.

[kutulu 1,676]

Things are looking rough for McCain he needs everything to break his way and has no margin for error.

 

 

He will start dropping the F bombs any day now.

[phillybear 366]

Being that Obama is such a dummy when it comes to the economy, I am in the process of yanking every cent I have out of the bank by the end of October, buying a sh!tload of canned goods, and fortifying my home against home invasion with blockades and a great deal of firepower.

 

The end is near, and our Presidents get dumber and dumber and dumber.

[BMoney 0]

could be quite the choke job to lose after having that big of a lead...that late in the campaign...

 

 

did everyone think that reagan was going to last his term? mccain isnt 90 for chrissakes...i bet he makes it longer than obama does...

[wiffleball 4,790]

This election ended the day Sarah Palin's bump became a spiral.

Fixed

 

 

That's easy to look up. Posted that article yesterday. The SPIN is what you posted, the reality is BO had already jumped ahead after Palin botched her two softball interviews. - THEN and only then did McCain decide to do this "I'll suspend my campaign to work on the economic crisis" bit. He was hoping the economic problems would actually give him a bump as this great Senate Leader - and sunk like a lead balloon when he offered to write down/off everybody's mortgages. - Which went over like a lead baloon in the TRUE conservative community.

[kutulu 1,676]

Being that Obama is such a dummy when it comes to the economy, I am in the process of yanking every cent I have out of the bank by the end of October, buying a sh!tload of canned goods, and fortifying my home against home invasion with blockades and a great deal of firepower.

 

The end is near, and our Presidents get dumber and dumber and dumber.

 

 

How do you fortify a bridge underpass?

[phillybear 366]

How do you fortify a bridge underpass?

 

I will be hosting a party, featuring tea and crumpets. You are cordially invited. I insist you come by. I'll email you my address.

 

And then I'll mother focking END you ....um, scratch that last part.

 

And then we shall have ever so much fun.

[kutulu 1,676]

I'll email you my address.

 

 

Same question applies.

[DanXIII 8]

I would listen to Zogby and Rasmussen way before CBS, Newsweek and others that definitely ask way more of a percentage of Democrats than a fairer average that Zogby/Rasmussen does...

 

OF COURSE you listen to Rasmussen! It skews right and everyone knows it.

 

By the way, Reps are more likely to have land line phones than Dems, fwiw...

[DanXIII 8]

Ok:

But national polls don't matter, anyhow. EVs are all that matters:

 

Obama 361, McCain 177 (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)

Obama 357, McCain 181 (http://www.electoral-vote.com/)

Obama 364, McCain 174 (http://www.intrade.com/)

Obama 264, McCain 174, 100 tossup (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/)

 

Hmm. Not looking too good for McCain there, either.

 

Also Obama/Biden 286

249 Solid 37 Leaning

 

McCain/Palin 158

140 Solid 18 Leaning

 

Toss Up 94

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ma...bama_vs_mccain/

[posty 2,700]

OF COURSE you listen to Rasmussen! It skews right and everyone knows it.

 

No, I go to Zogby and Rasmussen because they are far more accurate than the other "national" leftist polls...

[Uh-huh 0]

No, I go to Zogby and Rasmussen because they are far more accurate than the other "national" leftist polls...

at Zogby being "accurate"....

[mighty_thor 115]

Rasmussen and Zogby are very good poll takers. I would not say they slant conservative in their polling. Rasmussen has shown Obama with a 5 point lead for a few days now. I support Obama over McCain but I think a 5 point national lead is about right. If you look at the electoral college, Obama even looks better. McCain is behind in almost all the swing states and almost all of the swing states were states that Bush won in 2004.

[Dr.Grimm 0]

No, I go to Zogby and Rasmussen because they are far more accurate than the other "national" leftist polls...

 

I thought Zogby was the only ones who got it right in 2004. Noway Obama can lose this regardless. Nothing can stop him from winning this election. Absolutely nothing.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

I thought Zogby was the only ones who got it right in 2004. Noway Obama can lose this regardless. Nothing can stop him from winning this election. Absolutely nothing.

 

Did you forget to change your alias?

[jerryskids 6,797]

Ah, poles... I spoke to my bro today, his birfday was over the weekend and we weren't able to connect. Anyway, the subject of the election came up, and he said he's planning to vote for Obama. Why? Well, he's in construction, and he senses that nobody in his office wants to vote for a black man. I pointed out several reasons why Obama is the scariest candidate ever, , and why he shouldn't vote for a candidate because of his office mates' racism. He seemed to get it.

 

This is in Florida BTW.

 

Good luck with your poles, they don't mean shiot when people go into the voting booth to pull the proverbial lever.

[Dr.Grimm 0]

Did you forget to change your alias?

 

It's seems pretty obvious to me that there is noway in hell Obama could lose this, which makes me

[wiffleball 4,790]

Good luck with your poles, they don't mean shiot when people go into the voting booth to pull the proverbial lever.

 

 

I've said before that the % ones don't mean nearly as much to me as the electoral college ones. Last time I checked, BO had about 100 more votes than John. - And a few key states were leaning his way. If he pulls Michigan and Virginia - given what's projected right now, it's game over.

 

You believe (hope) the polls are slanted toward BO* because many people will express their racism in private at the election booth.

 

Others believe that the polls are slanted toward McCain because these are only done via landline and the majority of the younger and educated voters don't even have that anymore. That the respondent pool necessarily skews older - and therefore more likely toward McCain.

 

- We'll soon see. Ceterus Paribis, this could end up being a much bigger win for Obama than is currently projected.

 

 

* Can we just call this guy "Barry" from now on? Damn, it's a hell of a lot easier on the ears than BARACK!!! Sounds like a focking Parrot: "Polly want a cracker! - BARACK!!!"

[Snoopy 0]

* Can we just call this guy "Barry" from now on? Damn, it's a hell of a lot easier on the ears than BARACK!!! Sounds like a focking Parrot: "Polly want a cracker! - BARACK!!!"

 

Hehe, left the best for last. Thank you!

 

....works for pirate talk and parrot croak.....excellent!

[jerryskids 6,797]

I've said before that the % ones don't mean nearly as much to me as the electoral college ones. Last time I checked, BO had about 100 more votes than John. - And a few key states were leaning his way. If he pulls Michigan and Virginia - given what's projected right now, it's game over.

 

You believe (hope) the polls are slanted toward BO* because many people will express their racism in private at the election booth.

 

Others believe that the polls are slanted toward McCain because these are only done via landline and the majority of the younger and educated voters don't even have that anymore. That the respondent pool necessarily skews older - and therefore more likely toward McCain.

 

- We'll soon see. Ceterus Paribis, this could end up being a much bigger win for Obama than is currently projected.

* Can we just call this guy "Barry" from now on? Damn, it's a hell of a lot easier on the ears than BARACK!!! Sounds like a focking Parrot: "Polly want a cracker! - BARACK!!!"

Make no mistake, I'm not a huge McCain fan, I'd much rather see Paul, Romney, or a slew of others. I just think Obama is a machiavellian career politician who has spent his entire life doing absolutely whatever was necessary to get to this point.

 

Regarding the poles: I'm having flashbacks to Torrid claiming they were the be all end all slam dunk evidence of Kerry's win 4 years ago. I mentioned here recently (or somewhere on the internets) that my brother, in FL, was planning to vote for Obama because everyone in his office was NOT solely because he was a negro. Now, I don't particularly agree with that (utter and complete lack of) logic on the black part, but it is a factor.

 

Also, 4 years ago my mom, somehow still alive at 76 despite a health history that would kill a buffalo, went to vote for Kerry. Spent her whole life in Joe Biden's hometown, married to a union man. As she went to pull the lever, she realized that she didn't trust our national security to Kerry, and for the first time in her life voted republican.

 

There are a lot of "my mom"s and racist people out there. Will it impact the electoral college? Time will tell.

[Snoopy1 0]

Make no mistake, I'm not a huge McCain fan, I'd much rather see Paul, Romney, or a slew of others. I just think Obama is a machiavellian career politician who has spent his entire life doing absolutely whatever was necessary to get to this point.

 

And McCain hasn't done the same...

 

Heck that's another reason to vote for Obama-it took 26 years for McCain to reach this point, Obama 4 year...he's much more efficient1

[wiffleball 4,790]

I just think Obama is a machiavellian career politician who has spent his entire life doing absolutely whatever was necessary to get to this point.

 

Regarding the poles: I'm having flashbacks to Torrid claiming they were the be all end all slam dunk evidence of Kerry's win 4 years ago. I mentioned here recently (or somewhere on the internets) that my brother, in FL, was planning to vote for Obama because everyone in his office was NOT solely because he was a negro. Now, I don't particularly agree with that (utter and complete lack of) logic on the black part, but it is a factor.

 

 

I don't disagree with you about Obamma. I mean, he actually WANTED to be a "community organizer", so that tells you that he wanted a life in politics. Then again, what was JFK doing before he got into politics? (for example).

 

Hell, John McCain left his crippled wife just to marry a millionaire's daughter and get hooked up with his connection in politics. He's damn near made a career of running for POTUS. He completely abanonded his stances on many issues just to do whatever was necessary to get to the job of POTUS. So, if that's your demarcation, I think the two aren't that far apart.

 

As for Torrid and the polls, that doesn't make much sense (not that Torrid ever did). Here's where we were at 4 years ago:

 

Kerry takes lead in new opinion poll

Washington

October 8, 2004 - 5:29PM

 

Democrat John Kerry has taken a slight lead over US President George W Bush, according to a new opinion poll. The survey by the Associated Press found that Kerry had gained ground with women, boosting his overall popularity and cutting into the president’s advantage on national security.

 

The two candidates remain in a very close race ahead of a second debate tomorrow in St. Louis.

 

Among 944 likely voters, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards led Bush and Vice President ###### Cheney, 50 per cent to 46 per cent, in the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs.

 

The October 4-6 survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

 

...And they remained neck and neck up to and through the erection.

 

This case? 14 points? Probably more like 16-18 by the time the next poll comes out?

 

- DEFINITELY not similar.

 

But again, you're right - we won't know until 11/5. BUT: BO has the ability to outspend McCain 2 or 3 fold. Add in that at this point, the Conservatives are bailing like rats, and at this point, new contributions? - You back the winning horse. Corporation-PAC wise, You don't throw good money at the losing horse.