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Will the stimulus actually stimulate? Economists say NO!

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http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/62082.html

 

WASHINGTON — The compromise economic stimulus plan agreed to by negotiators from the House of Representatives and the Senate is short on incentives to get consumers spending again and long on social goals that won't stimulate economic activity, according to a range of respected economists.

 

"I think (doing) nothing would have been better," said Ed Yardeni, an investment analyst who's usually an optimist, in an interview with McClatchy. He argued that the plan fails to provide the right incentives to spur spending.

 

"It's unfocused. That is my problem. It is a lot of money for a lot of nickel-and- dime programs. I would have rather had a lot of money for (promoting purchase of) housing and autos . . . . Most of this plan is really, I think, aimed at stabilizing the situation and helping people get through the recession, rather than getting us out of the recession. They are actually providing less short-term stimulus by cutting back, from what I understand, some of the tax credits."

 

House and Senate negotiators this week narrowed the differences between their competing stimulus plans. In so doing, they scrapped a large tax credit for buying automobiles that would've caused positive ripple effects across the manufacturing sector. They settled instead on letting purchasers of new vehicles deduct from their federal taxes the state and local sales taxes on the cars they bought.

 

The exception to this is for buyers of plug-in hybrids, cars that run off a battery that can be charged at home or in the office. Buyers of these vehicles, available in very limited supply, could get a tax credit of up to $9,100.

 

A Republican-backed proposal that would've provided a $15,000 tax credit to first-time homebuyers also was scaled back dramatically. Instead, the compromise provides first-time homebuyers a tax credit of up to $8,000, and it doesn't have to be repaid over the life of the mortgage. Incentives already in place offer buyers a $7,500 credit that must be repaid, so the bill is an improvement, but short of what many economists think is necessary.

 

Another reason that some analysts frown on the stimulus is the social spending it includes on things such as the Head Start program for disadvantaged children and aid to NASA for climate-change research. Both may be worthy efforts, but they aren't aimed at delivering short-term boosts to economic activity.

 

"All this is 25 years of government expansion jammed into one bill and sold as stimulus," said Brian Riedl, the director of budget analysis for the Heritage Foundation, a conservative policy research group.

 

The view wasn't much more supportive on the other side of the political spectrum. In a brief on the stimulus compromise, William Galston, a senior fellow at the center-left Brookings Institution and a former Clinton White House adviser, warned Thursday that a bank-rescue plan being finalized will make the $789 billion look like "pocket change."

 

"While the stimulus bill is a necessary condition for economic stabilization and recovery, it is hardly sufficient," Galston wrote. "As the lesson of Japan in the 1990s shows, fiscal stimulus without financial rescue yields stagnation — at best."

 

" . . . Serious observers believe that recovery cannot begin until we acknowledge that losses in the financial system amount to some trillions of dollars, rendering many institutions insolvent. The temptation will be to muddle along, hoping that these institutions can gradually regain strength without putting massive amounts of taxpayers' money at risk. If we go down that road, we are likely to end up with zombie banks whose balance sheets are riddled with near-worthless investments — banks that cannot lend to credit-worthy customers and who cannot trust one another," Galston wrote.

 

With the economy in a tailspin, doing nothing isn't an option, however.

 

"Something is better than nothing, and bigger was better than smaller in terms of the stimulus needed," said Chris Varvares, president of prominent forecaster Macroeconomic Advisers in St. Louis. "The economy needs a fiscal jolt."

 

Even some proponents of a stimulus are disappointed, however. Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, a former adviser to President Ronald Reagan, was an early supporter. He said that government is now the only engine left to spark economic activity, but he said that the compromise falls short of what's needed.

 

"If the choice is between the current bill and an improved bill, I would say wait and improve the bill," Feldstein told CNBC on Wednesday after the compromise was announced. "I am disappointed with the structure of this bill."

 

Like Yardeni and other analysts, Feldstein wanted more incentives for consumers to make big purchases that have ripple effects across the economy. When a car is purchased, it helps not only the carmaker, but its suppliers, the trucking companies and railroads that transport cars, the states that issue license plates and so on.

 

Still, could this stimulus get the U.S. economy back on its feet?

 

By itself, probably not. The stimulus plan, however, is supposed to work in tandem with new efforts by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to rid banks of distressed assets that are poisoning their balance sheets, and with other federal efforts to halt mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures. Much will depend on the details of both federal attack plans, which the Obama administration promises are coming soon.

 

There's also the problem of time. Much of the stimulus is to be spread over a two-year period or longer — and 2009 looks increasingly bleak.

 

A Wall Street Journal survey of 52 mainstream economic forecasters published Thursday found that while most forecasters still think there could be slow growth by the second half of the year, that won't offset steeper-than-projected declines in the first half of 2009.

 

That means this is essentially a lost year for the economy. Most scenarios envision the economy picking back up again next year.

 

The president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, in a speech in Detroit Thursday, tried to put a brave face on the tough year ahead. Thomas Donohue acknowledged that big business didn't get in the stimulus bill some of the tax-relief measures it most wanted, but promised the Chamber's support.

 

"The bottom line is that at the end of the day, we're going to support the legislation. Why? Because with the markets functioning so poorly, the government is the only game in town capable of jump-starting the economy," Donohue said.

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From AP...

 

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/arti...D=2009902130390

 

Analysis: Stimulus won't jump-start economy

 

By Jeannine Aversa

Associated Press

 

WASHINGTON -- No, the big stimulus plan won't "save or create 3.5 million jobs," as the president and congressional Democrats claim -- at least not this year.

 

The economy will remain feeble through 2009, analysts warn, and businesses will keep shedding jobs, though not as many as they would have without the $789 billion boost.

 

The stimulus agreement, heading for final votes in the next day or so, goes to the heart of President Barack Obama's strategy to revive the economy and will go far in shaping how Americans view his economic leadership.

 

What it won't do is quickly snap the country out of the painful recession, now in its second year.

 

It should provide some relief, economists say, though some argue it won't plow enough money into the economy to prop it up.

 

Tax cuts will spur at least some spending by consumers and businesses, and that should help save or create jobs. Aid flowing to cash-squeezed states will prevent some layoffs.

 

And money for big public works projects, such as bridge and road repairs, and longer-term ventures, such as networks for more high-speed Internet connections, eventually will generate jobs and stir economic activity.

 

But even with the stimulus, many economists predict a net loss of 2 million, 3 million or even more jobs this year. The recession already had cost 3.6 million jobs through January. The unemployment rate, now at 7.6 percent, the highest in more than 16 years, will probably hit at least 9 percent by next year.

 

"The stimulus package is not going to turn the economy around right now," said William Gale, director of economic studies at the Brookings Institution.

 

"The best-case scenario is that it mitigates the depth and the severity of the downturn. That's not a bad thing. It's just not the magic bullet that fixes everything."

 

Some analysts say the job market won't return to normal health -- with unemployment hovering around 5 percent -- until as late as 2013.

 

And the broader economy? No sudden revival there either.

 

The economy is expected to slide backward for all of 2009 -- a decline in gross domestic product of more than 1 percent. That may not sound like much, but it would be the first yearly decline since 1991.

 

"Congress put the minimum charge into the stimulus battery," said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight. "We're taking this big chance, turning the key and praying there is enough juice to turn over the economy. We should have juiced it up so much that we are guaranteed that this engine will start" through a bigger package of tax reductions.

 

This recession has proved especially stubborn and dangerous. The root causes -- housing, credit and financial crises -- are the worst since the 1930s and don't lend themselves to quick fixes.

 

The package includes Obama's signature "Making Work Pay" tax credit for 95 percent of workers. But negotiators scaled it back from Obama's campaign promise: to $400 a year for individuals, instead of his $500, and $800 for couples, down from his $1,000.

 

That equals around an extra $13 a week in most paychecks, and it should show up very quickly after Obama signs the bill. The hope is Americans will then feel more inclined to go out and buy, which would help bolster the economy.

 

But will recession-shocked consumers, spooked by vanishing jobs, shattered nest eggs, tanking home values and surging foreclosures, actually spend money?

 

"Chances are people are going to save much or most of the tax cuts because of the climate of uncertainty and doom and gloom," Gale said.

 

Given the severity of the problems, economists said, the bigger the economic revival package the better. Some said it needed to be $1 trillion to make a noticeable difference this year.

 

Others argued that the package should have been front-loaded with a lot more money -- at least $500 billion -- in tax cuts, which tend to act more quickly to boost economic activity.

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com., estimates the bill will create just more than 2 million jobs by the end of 2010. The problem is, the recession will probably wipe out many more jobs than that. Zandi's prediction: 6.5 million jobs will disappear.

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Finally! I was hoping someone would start a thread about the stimulus plan.

 

LOL :doublethumbsup:

 

Also, no it wont help, it cannot....politicians continue to pursue a course of action to please special interest and business interests instead of taking meaningful action to fix the problem.

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Finally! I was hoping someone would start a thread about the stimulus plan.

Why don't you tell us how this plan will help you get a job? :doublethumbsup:

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Posty needs a nice necktie right after RP gets one.

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Finally! I was hoping someone would start a thread about the stimulus plan.

 

Finally, NewbieJr stopped supporting every single thing that Obama says. :doublethumbsup:

 

Oh, wait. :headbanger:

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Finally, NewbieJr stopped supporting every single thing that Obama says. :overhead:

 

Oh, wait. :overhead:

Please post a link to the last time I made a post supporting Obama?

 

 

Just because I think that retards like Recliner Pilot, posty, Faghawker, and you are annoying, doesn't mean it's because I'm supporting everything Obama does.

 

 

If the retard started ten threads a day about how much he hated onions, I'd also think he was a no-life, obssessed moron. That doesn't make me pro-onions.

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Please post a link to the last time I made a post supporting Obama?

 

Here ya go, buttercup. Link

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Why don't you tell us how this plan will help you get a job? :overhead:

Bump for Newbie.

 

Hey Newbs, much like what you accuse others of, all you do lately is come into threads and tell people they obsess about Obama. So, what do you think of this bill? Will it help you? Will $13/week make a difference to you?

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Bump for Newbie.

 

Hey Newbs, much like what you accuse others of, all you do lately is come into threads and tell people they obsess about Obama. So, what do you think of this bill? Will it help you? Will $13/week make a difference to you?

I don't have any idea what the effects of the stimulus plane would be for me or teh country in general. That's why you don't see me commenting on it.

 

Because, like you and everyone else here, I am not an economics expert. There are hundreds of people who are that are trying to figure out how to get out of the mess we are currently in. Hundreds of qualified, knowing (at least compared to me, you, RP, posty, and anyone else here) who are trying to sort everything out.

 

The only difference between me and the bellyachers, is that I don't pretend to know what I'm talking about.

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I don't have any idea what the effects of the stimulus plane would be for me or teh country in general. That's why you don't see me commenting on it.

 

Because, like you and everyone else here, I am not an economics expert. There are hundreds of people who are that are trying to figure out how to get out of the mess we are currently in. Hundreds of qualified, knowing (at least compared to me, you, RP, posty, and anyone else here) who are trying to sort everything out.

 

The only difference between me and the bellyachers, is that I don't pretend to know what I'm talking about.

Well, I have an MBA, so I'd propose that I understand a little better than the average American. Nevertheless, I am indeed no expert. But to your bolded comment, I agree. So, shouldn't we wait until those experts sort this out before hitting some artificial Pres. Day target?

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Well, I have an MBA, so I'd propose that I understand a little better than the average American. Nevertheless, I am indeed no expert. But to your bolded comment, I agree. So, shouldn't we wait until those experts sort this out before hitting some artificial Pres. Day target?

I suppose. I see no reason that should should rush it based on some arbitrary date someone made up.

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Posty needs a nice necktie right after RP gets one.

Posty isn't a one trick pony. Highly political, yes. But he brings a lot of good stuff too.

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I don't have any idea what the effects of the stimulus plane would be for me or teh country in general. That's why you don't see me commenting on it.

 

Because, like you and everyone else here, I am not an economics expert. There are hundreds of people who are that are trying to figure out how to get out of the mess we are currently in. Hundreds of qualified, knowing (at least compared to me, you, RP, posty, and anyone else here) who are trying to sort everything out.

 

The only difference between me and the bellyachers, is that I don't pretend to know what I'm talking about.

 

EVERY expert I've heard comment on this has basically said the same thing: "It doesn't have enough stimulus and the pork isn't going to help. I don't like it but at least it's something." Not a glowing endorsement. I'd like our government to come up with something that gets a slightly better response than that, and I don't need to be an expert to come to that conclusion.

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EVERY expert I've heard comment on this has basically said the same thing: "It doesn't have enough stimulus and the pork isn't going to help. I don't like it but at least it's something." Not a glowing endorsement. I'd like our government to come up with something that gets a slightly better response than that, and I don't need to be an expert to come to that conclusion.

Let's be honest, do you really think there is anything that Obama can possibly do, whether it be this stimulus package of anything else, that would prompt Recliner Pilot, posty, Jerry, Faghawker, or phillybear to say something positive about him? Of course not. That's why everything they post is just nonsense. It's like tuning into Hannity or Limbaugh. I'd love to listen to a political talk station if I didn't know execatly what the premise of each day's show was going to be. (and i realize it works the same way with left-wing radio). Same with the 'political guys' on this website. If there was a single member who actually didn't have an agenda, then their opinion might actually be worth reading. Unfortunately, there are few if any. If Obama actually did do something that might be detrimental to teh country, there is no way in hell I would ever find out about it on this board. I could never seperate it from the other twenty-five 'doomsday' threads on page one.

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Please post a link to the last time I made a post supporting Obama?

Just because I think that retards like Recliner Pilot, posty, Faghawker, and you are annoying, doesn't mean it's because I'm supporting everything Obama does.

If the retard started ten threads a day about how much he hated onions, I'd also think he was a no-life, obssessed moron. That doesn't make me pro-onions.

 

Why do you hate onions?

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Let's be honest, do you really think there is anything that Obama can possibly do, whether it be this stimulus package of anything else, that would prompt Recliner Pilot, posty, Jerry, Faghawker, or phillybear to say something positive about him? Of course not. That's why everything they post is just nonsense. It's like tuning into Hannity or Limbaugh. I'd love to listen to a political talk station if I didn't know execatly what the premise of each day's show was going to be. (and i realize it works the same way with left-wing radio). Same with the 'political guys' on this website. If there was a single member who actually didn't have an agenda, then their opinion might actually be worth reading. Unfortunately, there are few if any. If Obama actually did do something that might be detrimental to teh country, there is no way in hell I would ever find out about it on this board. I could never seperate it from the other twenty-five 'doomsday' threads on page one.

 

If Obama does something that I like and I think is worth it, I will praise him...

 

Just right now he hasn't done anything to warrant that...

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Why do you hate onions?

 

 

They are quite tasty and an important base to many dishes.

 

I don't understand it either.

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Let's be honest, do you really think there is anything that Obama can possibly do, whether it be this stimulus package of anything else, that would prompt Recliner Pilot, posty, Jerry, Faghawker, or phillybear to say something positive about him? Of course not. That's why everything they post is just nonsense. It's like tuning into Hannity or Limbaugh. I'd love to listen to a political talk station if I didn't know execatly what the premise of each day's show was going to be. (and i realize it works the same way with left-wing radio). Same with the 'political guys' on this website. If there was a single member who actually didn't have an agenda, then their opinion might actually be worth reading. Unfortunately, there are few if any. If Obama actually did do something that might be detrimental to teh country, there is no way in hell I would ever find out about it on this board. I could never seperate it from the other twenty-five 'doomsday' threads on page one.

 

I doubt positive but possibly neutral. Look, I'm not for ANY type of stimulus package but I understand this perception that we "need to do something." And I wouldn't make a peep if they passed a 200-250 billion dollar actual STIMULUS package as has been proposed by one of THEIR own Democrats, that had no pork in it. The big problem with this bill is the pork because it politicizes the whole process. I think it would be hard for ANYONE to complain if they passed an actual stimulus bill even if one didn't agree with it.

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Let's be honest, do you really think there is anything that Obama can possibly do, whether it be this stimulus package of anything else, that would prompt Recliner Pilot, posty, Jerry, Faghawker, or phillybear to say something positive about him? Of course not. That's why everything they post is just nonsense. It's like tuning into Hannity or Limbaugh. I'd love to listen to a political talk station if I didn't know execatly what the premise of each day's show was going to be. (and i realize it works the same way with left-wing radio). Same with the 'political guys' on this website. If there was a single member who actually didn't have an agenda, then their opinion might actually be worth reading. Unfortunately, there are few if any. If Obama actually did do something that might be detrimental to teh country, there is no way in hell I would ever find out about it on this board. I could never seperate it from the other twenty-five 'doomsday' threads on page one.

So why don't you go get your news from some other source and come back with an informed opinion for once?

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If Obama does something that I like and I think is worth it, I will praise him...

 

Just right now he hasn't done anything to warrant that...

:thumbsup: Sure you would.

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Let's be honest, do you really think there is anything that Obama can possibly do, whether it be this stimulus package of anything else, that would prompt Recliner Pilot, posty, Jerry, Faghawker, or phillybear to say something positive about him? Of course not.

 

I don't post anything positive about anybody, you stupid twat.

 

If you want to read posts that make you feel good, go back to the the land of milk and honey of FBGs. Oh, how I want to jam my thumb into your eye sockets so you could never read anything I post ever again, you poster child for progeria.

 

Go back to your family and be the best disappointment you can possibly be. I bet your kids aren't ashamed of you at all; not lying to their friends that their suddenly fat, dirty clothes wearing, unshaven, standing on his front lawn at 11:00 AM in his underwear and scratching his ass, can only finish half of a crossword puzzle, counting the minutes between watching The View and Oprah father is actually taking a long vacation and not really a bum. At least Bob Cratchit had a job.

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If you want to read posts that make you feel good, go back to the the land of milk and honey of FBGs. Oh, how I want to jam my thumb into your eye sockets so you could never read anything I post ever again, you poster child for progeria.

:lol:

 

In order to jam your thumbs into my eye sockets, you'd have to actually be near me and not talking ###### while hiding behind a computer you little focking twat.

 

Therefore, that's highly unlikely to ever happen. :thumbsup:

 

Countdown until pussieboy wishes me aids or something equally old, uncreative, and boring, 10.....9.....8......

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:lol:

 

In order to jam your thumbs into my eye sockets, you'd have to actually be near me and not talking ###### while hiding behind a computer you little focking twat.

 

Therefore, that's highly unlikely to ever happen. :thumbsup:

 

Countdown until pussieboy wishes me aids or something equally old, uncreative, and boring, 10.....9.....8......

Actually, you didn't full quote him. Had you done so, we could continue to read where he kicked your ass with the rest of his post. :lol:

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Actually, you didn't full quote him. Had you done so, we could continue to read where he kicked your ass with the rest of his post. :thumbsup:

True dat. Phillybear's a real typed-word ass-kicker. He should be greatly feared. :lol:

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Let's be honest, do you really think there is anything that Obama can possibly do, whether it be this stimulus package of anything else, that would prompt Recliner Pilot, posty, Jerry, Faghawker, or phillybear to say something positive about him? Of course not. That's why everything they post is just nonsense. It's like tuning into Hannity or Limbaugh. I'd love to listen to a political talk station if I didn't know execatly what the premise of each day's show was going to be. (and i realize it works the same way with left-wing radio). Same with the 'political guys' on this website. If there was a single member who actually didn't have an agenda, then their opinion might actually be worth reading. Unfortunately, there are few if any. If Obama actually did do something that might be detrimental to teh country, there is no way in hell I would ever find out about it on this board. I could never seperate it from the other twenty-five 'doomsday' threads on page one.

Where am I specifically dissing Obama? I am against this bill, especially the rashness with which it is being railroaded thru, and if that means I don't like Obama doing it, you can interpret that as a diss of him. As has been stated numerous times, I was against the bank bailout last year for the same reasons.

 

I don't believe I've specifically insulted him as a person, and I certainly have never called him anything remotely close to the labels used to describe the former president on this bored. I do however fundamentally disagree with his socialist agenda, so I'm sure that comes out in my posts.

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Let's be honest, do you really think there is anything that Obama can possibly do, whether it be this stimulus package of anything else, that would prompt Recliner Pilot, posty, Jerry, Faghawker, or phillybear to say something positive about him? Of course not. That's why everything they post is just nonsense.

 

Try reading what I have been posting, then you wouldn't look like an idiot........scratch that.

 

I have been hammering Pelosi and Reid as much, or more than I have been Obama when it comes to the Porkulus bill. Face it, Obama just got run over by Uncle Harry and The Moonbat.

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Try reading what I have been posting, then you wouldn't look like an idiot........scratch that.

 

I have been hammering Pelosi and Reid as much, or more than I have been Obama when it comes to the Porkulus bill. Face it, Obama just got run over by Uncle Harry and The Moonbat.

 

 

So you like Obama?

 

 

I think you just admitted that you like Obama.

 

 

Obama-liker!

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Read those 1st 2 posts. I saw: "doing nothing is not an option." Interestingly, I also saw versions of "this is not nearly enough." We need MORE stimulus! And, probably different stimulus as well. The key piece is the bank piece - that piece may take $2 trillion to fix.

 

This board has been a little tone deaf at times on the real problems. I've seen too many people who think we should do nothing, which is just plain wrong. And even the economists quoted suggest $800B is not enough. Conservative sound bites from politicians, talk shows, and this board sound jarringly off line compared to the above assessment.

 

As for my own credentials, I have a International Business degree, an MBA, and I work at a large regional bank lending money to businesses. I suspect those against any stimulus don't have such a background, or they'd have a different opinion.

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Read those 1st 2 posts. I saw: "doing nothing is not an option." Interestingly, I also saw versions of "this is not nearly enough." We need MORE stimulus! And, probably different stimulus as well. The key piece is the bank piece - that piece may take $2 trillion to fix.

 

This board has been a little tone deaf at times on the real problems. I've seen too many people who think we should do nothing, which is just plain wrong. And even the economists quoted suggest $800B is not enough. Conservative sound bites from politicians, talk shows, and this board sound jarringly off line compared to the above assessment.

 

As for my own credentials, I have a International Business degree, an MBA, and I work at a large regional bank lending money to businesses. I suspect those against any stimulus don't have such a background, or they'd have a different opinion.

 

Nice, so you're in the business. You're business is focked up, and we should let the ones that focked up keep doing the focking up?

 

Cool.

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Read those 1st 2 posts. I saw: "doing nothing is not an option." Interestingly, I also saw versions of "this is not nearly enough." We need MORE stimulus! And, probably different stimulus as well. The key piece is the bank piece - that piece may take $2 trillion to fix.

 

This board has been a little tone deaf at times on the real problems. I've seen too many people who think we should do nothing, which is just plain wrong. And even the economists quoted suggest $800B is not enough. Conservative sound bites from politicians, talk shows, and this board sound jarringly off line compared to the above assessment.

 

As for my own credentials, I have a International Business degree, an MBA, and I work at a large regional bank lending money to businesses. I suspect those against any stimulus don't have such a background, or they'd have a different opinion.

Contrary to popular opinion here, I'm not opposed to the idea of a stimulus package. I'm opposed to THIS stimulus package. That being said, my thoughts:

- I see the points of Keynesian economic theory, but I'm not convinced that ANY random influx of government money create the necessary jolt. Or more specifically, why will this influx create that jolt?

- Relatedly, will $13/week really stimulate the economy? Will people getting that money really change their spending habits? I don't think so; it seems like death by 1000 cuts. I'd rather see pointed stimulus towards targeted areas. Many economists have said similar.

- Head Start, STDs, etc. are not stimulus, they are liberal agendas. Education is important, and in general I support educating our people to compete in a global economy, but it is not near-term stimulus. Anything which is not stimulus should be separated and debated on its merits. Liberals like to call this "the perfect undermining the good"... fine, then acknowledge that it is a selfish agenda and whack it from this bill.

- I haven't seen any details on the proposed larger finance bailout, but as an international business graduate, you understand that the increased inflation from this plan necessitates increased interest rates and as such, reduced incentives for banks to restructure existing loans. Actually, I'll defer to your expertise in this area, I admit that I could be wrong and would like to hear why.

 

But most importantly, I object to the "urgency" with which this is being pushed thru. Obama wants it by Pres. Day... why? what is so bad if it is a few weeks later? Will our country collapse in those weeks? Pelosi wants a vote now because she is going to Rome... unless we are annexing Italy to our profit, is that more important than this situation? The whole thing reeks of ramrodding thru a pork-laden bill as fast as possible, before people (including "experts") have a real chance to analyze.

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