Look-Alike Players: Thomas Jones vs. Darren McFadden

[Fumbleweed 426]

Look-Alike Players seeks to try to distinguish between two players whose redraft values appear to be almost identical. Today, the choice is Thomas Jones vs. Darren McFadden.

 

Feel free to vote and then add thoughts on why you voted for who you did throughout the thread. This is an old FFToday feature that will be continued this spring/summer as dictated by the interest it garners. Interest with regards to the last two has waned some, so we'll see how things go with this matchup.

 

Results so far in '09:

 

Braylon Edwards over Chad Johnson, 17-10.

Tom Brady over Peyton Manning, 14-6.

Chris Johnson over Steve Slaton, 31-18.

Ronnie Brown over Ryan Grant, 21-9.

Donald Driver over Derrick Mason, 14-8.

Brandon Jacobs over Marion Barber, 20-14.

Matt Schaub over Matt Ryan, 21-15.

Reggie Wayne over Steve Smith, 26-15.

Owen Daniels over Chris Cooley, 15-9.

Vincent Jackson over DeSean Jackson, 11-5.

[KSB2424 3,083]

I went with Thomas Jones by a hair. I don't think last year was a misnomer and liked what I saw from him and the O-Line. D-Mac has the 'upside' and higher ceiling per se, but we haven't really seen him succeed yet in the NFL. Plus Bush and Fargas are not chopped liver.

 

I like both these guys and deciding between the two would depend on how the first few rounds of my draft went. If I waited for my RB2 then I would go TJ as it is prolly more safe. If I was going for RB3 then I would draft D-Mac because of upside.

[DeaLerZ 0]

I went with Thomas Jones by a hair. I don't think last year was a misnomer and liked what I saw from him and the O-Line. D-Mac has the 'upside' and higher ceiling per se, but we haven't really seen him succeed yet in the NFL. Plus Bush and Fargas are not chopped liver.

 

I like both these guys and deciding between the two would depend on how the first few rounds of my draft went. If I waited for my RB2 then I would go TJ as it is prolly more safe. If I was going for RB3 then I would draft D-Mac because of upside.

 

well said

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

I am very interested in hearing some more responses on this.

 

Not that it matters a ton but I will be up shortly in our IBL mock and may very well be staring these 2 in the face for my RB2.

 

 

I think DMC has the potential to be Reggie Bush light while Thomas Jones has the better offensive line and is probably the safer pick.

 

I totally agree with what KSB has said, however in the IBL you only have to start 1 back and the league is PPR.

[Doozer 0]

Dunno if anyone watched DMAC play last year when he was healthy (first two games... kind of a lol), but to call him "Reggie Bush lite" is plain ignorant. DMAC is a much better through the tackles runner, and actually knows how to take a hit. Last year against KC he simply ran like no one was there. He is more dangerous in space than Reggie IMO, and is a much more complete back. To top that off, he has equivalent if not a little worse hands than Reggie. Also, he can throw the ball... look for the Raiders to employ a three back attack w/ DMAC the QB, Bush the FB, and Fargas the HB (I base this on nothing ).

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Dunno if anyone watched DMAC play last year when he was healthy (first two games... kind of a lol), but to call him "Reggie Bush lite" is plain ignorant. DMAC is a much better through the tackles runner, and actually knows how to take a hit. Last year against KC he simply ran like no one was there. He is more dangerous in space than Reggie IMO, and is a much more complete back. To top that off, he has equivalent if not a little worse hands than Reggie. Also, he can throw the ball... look for the Raiders to employ a three back attack w/ DMAC the QB, Bush the FB, and Fargas the HB (I base this on nothing ).

 

i meant more from a statistics perspective than an actual talent perspective. Talent wise I think McFadden is the superior rusher but Bush the superior WR.

 

However i feel if DMC stays healthy all year and gets utilized in the passing game like reports out of raider camp claim, he can produce reggie bush light statistics.

[Doozer 0]

The difference is DMAC will get over 4.0 YPC, reggie bush lite my ass. (Reggie bush career YPC = 3.7).

[FeelingMN 273]

I like DMac. The Raiders can do one thing pretty well, and that's run the ball. NY can as well, but they did lose their starting QB and starting WR from last year. That, and TJ has lost a step. The dude benefitted from some huge holes last year. Something I'm banking on doesn't happen as much this year. Plus the Jets have a tougher sked this year. I'm steering clear from TJ this year.

[***NED*** 0]

McFadden. Jones floor may be a bit higher but the ceilings aren't even close. Russel is said to be in shape. The Jets drafted Jones replacement whom he will lose touches too and that leon Washington guy will get his share. In Aug this debate won't even be close IMO.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

The difference is DMAC will get over 4.0 YPC, reggie bush lite my ass. (Reggie bush career YPC = 3.7).

 

[ricanrockers 39]

The difference is DMAC will get over 4.0 YPC, reggie bush lite my ass. (Reggie bush career YPC = 3.7).

 

 

Reggie Bush should not be considered a RB, he's a slot receiver...period!!

 

He's only good in PPR leagues!!

[FlaHawker 24]

well said

Actually it wasn't well said. Nothing in his post convinced me to take TJ over McFadden. Play it safe? Losers play it safe. McFadden has all the upside. Sure he has Bush and Fargas to contend with but those guys didn't get paid the money Run DMC got paid. The Raiders will play McFadden, and he will produce this year. TJ? There is a reason the Jets drafted Shonne Greene. Both guys are 5th round values right now (according to the FF calculator). Always take the player with the higher ceiling. In this case, that is Run DMC!

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Actually it wasn't well said. Nothing in his post convinced me to take TJ over McFadden. Play it safe? Losers play it safe. McFadden has all the upside. Sure he has Bush and Fargas to contend with but those guys didn't get paid the money Run DMC got paid. The Raiders will play McFadden, and he will produce this year. TJ? There is a reason the Jets drafted Shonne Greene. Both guys are 5th round values right now (according to the FF calculator). Always take the player with the higher ceiling. In this case, that is Run DMC!

 

I disagree that taking TJ would be playing it safe. I would view it more as playing it smart. There is very little reason to believe that TJ can't produce another very good year except possibly more carries going to Washington/Greene. The offensive line is still in tact and still a top 5 unit. Brett Favre was a shell of himself last year so Im not going to buy the decline in QB play arguments either.

 

Also as a big time Jet follower, I can tell you that Greene was drafted to be the eventual replacement for TJ, not to phase him out this year.

 

I am still torn myself as to who I would pick. I have heard good things about DMC so far BUT, the amount of money he was paid has little to do with his success. Most teams in the NFL will play the guys who produce and give their team the best chance to win. It sucks when you paid alot of money to a backup, but winning trumps everything.

[Doozer 0]

You make a comparison between two very different players, that have entirely different roles, on teams with entirely different philosophies... and add the term lite... which has an bad connotation in regards to FF, and then roll your eyes at my comment... nice work. Anyways, Thomas Jones will have a down year for two reasons... who is the Jets QB, and who is he throwing to?

 

Make all the comments you want about Favre, but imo it makes the defense respect the pass more than say... Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens.

 

I also believe that Leon Washington will play a bigger role this year, and quite frankly I don't see why not.

 

Combine that with Shonn Greene stealing some goalline carries and I see a very average year for Thomas Jones.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

You make a comparison between two very different players, that have entirely different roles, on teams with entirely different philosophies... and add the term lite... which has an bad connotation in regards to FF, and then roll your eyes at my comment... nice work. Anyways, Thomas Jones will have a down year for two reasons... who is the Jets QB, and who is he throwing to?

 

Make all the comments you want about Favre, but imo it makes the defense respect the pass more than say... Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens.

 

I also believe that Leon Washington will play a bigger role this year, and quite frankly I don't see why not.

 

Combine that with Shonn Greene stealing some goalline carries and I see a very average year for Thomas Jones.

 

I simply said he could be a reggie bush light in terms of FANTASY, this year because reports out of Raider camp say he will be used more in the passing game, split out etc... and much like reggie bush, both players rely on their speed to get the job done. They are also very similar size wise, minus the 2 inches DMC has on reggie.

 

Obviously im not going to say the Raider offense is the Saints offense, it doesn't have to be. But both teams also have better power runners on the roster (another similarity).

 

its fine if you don't, agree, just dont get so bent out of shape about it.

 

It also has nothing to do with who i prefer in the TJ vs DMC debate... I think DMC has the higher ceiling, but TJ the higher floor. And as a Jet fan, I can tell you that by the last 5 or 6 weeks of the season, defenses were not respecting Favre.

[Doozer 0]

Agree to disagree I guess, it's just when you respond to a comment with a sarcastic emote...

 

But for the first ten weeks? That's going to change with Sanchez/Clemens throwing the ball to... Cotchery and Keller.

 

Really do believe Washington will get more involved this year... as a Jets fan what's not to like about him?

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Agree to disagree I guess, it's just when you respond to a comment with a sarcastic emote...

 

But for the first ten weeks? That's going to change with Sanchez/Clemens throwing the ball to... Cotchery and Keller.

 

Really do believe Washington will get more involved this year... as a Jets fan what's not to like about him?

 

the sarcastic emote was honestly directed at the "reggie bush light my ass" remark. sarcastic emote for a snide comment i guess.

 

As a Jet fan I love Leon and hope, for once, he actually is more involved. But as a Jet fan, I have been hearing the same song and dance for the past 3 years and altho Rex Ryan is now in town, Shotty is still the OC. I also recognize that Leon will never be a full time back and is dangerous in the return game and I hope he still returns some kicks.

[49ers_suck 0]

TJ was HUGE last yr. he's gonna be 31 though. does anyone think he touches last yrs stats? the QB situation leaves something to be desired.

 

DMC comin into his 2nd yr, seemingly healthy. the Raidahs run the ball pretty well, and DMC can take it to the house on any given play.

 

FWIW, i had TJ last yr. and i'm likin DMC's upside over TJ right now. ultimately it comes down to a guy in the twilight of his career vs a guy just gettin started.

[Raider 84 29]

McFadden! Go Raiders!

 

T. Jones had a great year, but he is 30 and I don't see him putting up the same numbers. Jets have a great o-line, but a potential rookie QB and mediocre wr's.

[Cuse9 128]

I went with McFadden.

 

Everyone is waiting for McFadden to explode and he has the potential to do it. While there are some other decent RB's in Oakland, McFadden is the one that can be elite.

 

Jones is a nice back. The problem is there are guys behind him that are waiting to take the job and never give it back. Washington is a great change of pace guy who could be a great feature back if given the chance. Green is a rookie who has been through alot. He's as ready of a rookie as you'll find. Again, if given a chance he could shine and end Jones' career.

 

They are both close, but the potential for explosion by McFadden means alot. You could draft a solid #2/3 back in Jones or take McFadden around the same pick and get a #1 fantasy stud. I know it's a reach that he'll be the best player in fantasy football, but that chance is there while it's not with Jones.

[Gatorclan3 0]

McFadden

[listen2me 23 1,545]

I don't see how anyone can say McFadden? Sure TJ is older. Unless he hits the brick wall he should still be good for 1000/8 and 30 some catches. And why does everyone just automatically assume he will lose a step? What if he doesn't and puts up 1300/10? What is this magical formula? Because he is 30? Damn that is pretty simple.

 

I will take what looks to be at least a 1000 yard 7-10 TD RB over anyone who plays for the Raiders. They suck and McFadden is unproven. For this year give me TJ all day. It isn't safe or whatever you want to call it, it is choosing the guy that will most likely out stat the other guy.

[mambokings 0]

Thomas Jones is 30 years old and will turn 31 next month, before the season even begins. He no longer has Brett Favre, Laveranues Coles, or any threat of a passing game. This season, he'll face continous 8-man fronts, legs that get tired even quicker than before, and increased competition from backups Leon Washington and Shonn Greene. In a nutshell, the guy is old hat (quite literally, as his age suggests). His 2008 success was a by-product of what Favre and Co. were able to do for this offense, nothing more.

 

If you insist on drafting Thomas Jones, at least be aware of what you're getting. In 2007, before the Favre revival, Jones managed just a single rushing touchdown for the entire season. Even last year, his best as a pro thanks to Favre and company, he fell apart down the stretch. Over the last four games of the season, he averaged a paltry 56 yards per game. Whether you blame his drop in production on Favre's struggles around the same time or simply his own aging legs, both factors remain for your consideration.

[stonewall 647]

McFadden

 

 

Thanks.

[FlaHawker 24]

I don't see how anyone can say McFadden? Sure TJ is older. Unless he hits the brick wall he should still be good for 1000/8 and 30 some catches. And why does everyone just automatically assume he will lose a step? What if he doesn't and puts up 1300/10? What is this magical formula? Because he is 30? Damn that is pretty simple.

 

I will take what looks to be at least a 1000 yard 7-10 TD RB over anyone who plays for the Raiders. They suck and McFadden is unproven. For this year give me TJ all day. It isn't safe or whatever you want to call it, it is choosing the guy that will most likely out stat the other guy.

Your dismissing McFadden and the Raiders because they suck is simplistic. The Jets averaged 24 carries a game last year, 125 yards, and 1.1. rushing TDs per game. The Raiders averaged 27 carries a game, 124 yards and .5 TDs per game. The Jets rushed roughly 422 (381 by RBs) times last year and now you add Shonn Greene to the mix. TJ had 290 carries last year and 13 TDs. However, of those 13 TDs 10 of them were scored from inside the 10 yard line. That tells me that Brett Favre's passing had a alot to do with those and without a rookie or Clemens at QB, he may not get those chances again so his TDs are bound to drop, and could drop significantly. Barring injury TJs carries should come down to about the 225 mark, Leon Washington should go up to about the 100 mark and then that leaves roughly 56 carries for Greene. I'm guess for sure, but Washington showed he desreved more touches and Greene was drafted as TJs future replacement.

 

Now on the other hand, McFadden only had 113 carries due mainly to injury. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry whcih was right there behind Jones 4.5. He also scored 4 TDs. Justin Fargas had 218 touches while Michael Bush had 95. Clearly the loser here is Fargas. In fact, I think we will see a reversal with McFadden in the 218 range, Bush in the 113 range and Fargas around the 90 mark.

 

So how is TJ the slam dunk pick here? Obviously, one guy's elevator is coming down and one guy's is going up. Both teams had similar rushing stats last year, with Jets having more TDs, but TDs are luck. No guarentee TJ gets all those scored inside the 10. Give me McFadden. The guy has more upside. If both guys get in the 225 carry range, McFadden should out produce TJ, plus the Raiders will use McFadden in wildcat formations which could have him throwing the ball and he should be in the 40-45 catch range as well. Run DMC >>>>> TJ

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

Thomas Jones is 30 years old and will turn 31 next month, before the season even begins. He no longer has Brett Favre, Laveranues Coles, or any threat of a passing game. This season, he'll face continous 8-man fronts, legs that get tired even quicker than before, and increased competition from backups Leon Washington and Shonn Greene. In a nutshell, the guy is old hat (quite literally, as his age suggests). His 2008 success was a by-product of what Favre and Co. were able to do for this offense, nothing more.

 

If you insist on drafting Thomas Jones, at least be aware of what you're getting. In 2007, before the Favre revival, Jones managed just a single rushing touchdown for the entire season. Even last year, his best as a pro thanks to Favre and company, he fell apart down the stretch. Over the last four games of the season, he averaged a paltry 56 yards per game. Whether you blame his drop in production on Favre's struggles around the same time or simply his own aging legs, both factors remain for your consideration.

 

FWIW, I'm still on the fence with Thomas Jones for 2009... Buuuuuuuuut, I wouldn't attribute Jones' success last year wholly to Favre. Alot of us had Jones on the value-wrt-ADP radar before last season due to the Jets evolving OL (D'Brick + Mangold with some experience, signing Faneca and Woody) and signing FB Tony Richardson. I think that might have had a little bit to do with Jones' numbers last year.

 

But, I do agree the uncertainty at the Jets QB position is cause for concern in 2009. But if Sanchez or Klemens ends up being halfway decent, Jones could be a very good value pick once again this year.