How important is Strength of Schedule to Fantasy Football Sucess?

[HTH 95]

In relation to player performances?

 

Pivotal? No?

 

As important as offensive scheme?

 

[Vikings4ever 569]

Personally, I don't even really look at it.

 

Defenses can be so up and down, end of year SOS can look completely different than at the beginning of the year.

 

The only exception would be if I have 2 players VERY VERY close, and one has a playoff schedule against teams that are consistently good or bad.

[Chronic Husker 86]

Personally, I don't even really look at it.

 

Defenses can be so up and down, end of year SOS can look completely different than at the beginning of the year.

 

The only exception would be if I have 2 players VERY VERY close, and one has a playoff schedule against teams that are consistently good or bad.

Usually agree with your fantasy analysis more or less since the creation of the CHIMI league but disagree with the first part. I wouldn't take SOS strictly into account but I always look at run defenses vs. RBs I'm targeting and pass defenses vs. WRs and QBs I'm targeting. Then, I go deeper and look at bye weeks and Sundays when my starting RBs have to go against Balt, Pitt, Chicago, etc.

 

The more times my guys get to go against Cincy, Detroilet, KC, etc., the better.

 

Agree with your last point that I do look at playoff schedules, especially week one and week two of the playoffs.

 

[Vikings4ever 569]

Usually agree with your fantasy analysis more or less since the creation of the CHIMI league but disagree with the first part. I wouldn't take SOS strictly into account but I always look at run defenses vs. RBs I'm targeting and pass defenses vs. WRs and QBs I'm targeting. Then, I go deeper and look at bye weeks and Sundays when my starting RBs have to go against Balt, Pitt, Chicago, etc.

 

The more times my guys get to go against Cincy, Detroilet, KC, etc., the better.

 

Agree with your last point that I do look at playoff schedules, especially week one and week two of the playoffs.

 

6 of the top 10 passing defenses last year repeated from the year before. 3 of the bottom 10 in passing repeated from the year before.

 

Notable differences include Philly going from 18 to 3, Seattle going from 19 to 32, SD going from 14 to 31, NYJ going from 9 to 29, KC going from 5 to 28, Denver going from 7 to 26, and Miami going from 4 to 25.

 

7 of the top 10 rushing defenses last year repeated from the year before. 6 of the bottom 10 in rushing repeated from the year before. Both higher than I expected.

 

Notable differences include Chicago going from 24th to 5th, NYJ going from 29 to 7, and Miami going from 32 to 10.

 

What I'm saying is that there are teams I don't want my players playing against (and some that I do), but there are always defenses that surprise, defenses that bust, and less dramatic shifts in between. Due to these changes, and changes in my lineups due to injuries, busts, and WW pickups, I don't really look at at SOS until I'm actually setting my lineups for that week.

 

But, to each his own.

[mobb_deep 921]

I pretty much agree with both of you. I always take SOS into consideration, but more so weeks 14-16. Chicago and Baltimore are two teams with especially difficult playoff schedules. St. Louis, Philly and Oakland look pretty favorable, at first glance.

[Chronic Husker 86]

6 of the top 10 passing defenses last year repeated from the year before.

 

7 of the top 10 rushing defenses last year repeated from the year before. 6 of the bottom 10 in rushing repeated from the year before. Both higher than I expected.

Exactly.

 

To each his own.

[Vikings4ever 569]

I pretty much agree with both of you. I always take SOS into consideration, but more so weeks 14-16. Chicago and Baltimore are two teams with especially difficult playoff schedules. St. Louis, Philly and Oakland look pretty favorable, at first glance.

 

Bears:

Packers #20 defense

Ravens #2 defense

Vikings #6 defense

 

Ravens:

Lions #32 defense

Bears #21 defense

Steelers #1 defense

 

Rams:

Titans #7 defense

Texans #22 defense

Cardinals #19 defense

 

Eagles:

Giants #5 defense

9ers # 13 defense

Broncos #29 defense

 

Raiders:

Redskins #4 defense

Broncos # 29 defense

Browns #26 defense

 

Of the ones you mentioned, only 1 of the 2 "bad" schedules looks especially bad, and only 1 of the 3 "good" schedules you mentioned looks especially good. First looks tend to be on impressions, and often you find impressions have nothing to do with the actual numbers.

[FlaHawker 24]

Personally, I don't even really look at it.

 

Defenses can be so up and down, end of year SOS can look completely different than at the beginning of the year.

 

The only exception would be if I have 2 players VERY VERY close, and one has a playoff schedule against teams that are consistently good or bad.

Bingo. Draft the best players you can and then play your guys. You start worrying about schedules matchups and you overthink it. Keep it simple.

[odusurfer 0]

What I'm saying is that there are teams I don't want my players playing against (and some that I do), but there are always defenses that surprise, defenses that bust, and less dramatic shifts in between. Due to these changes, and changes in my lineups due to injuries, busts, and WW pickups, I don't really look at at SOS until I'm actually setting my lineups for that week.

 

This is the bottom line. Don't let SOS effect the way you draft your players, but you definitely want to look at the defense your players are facing when setting your lineups, especially specific match-ups for WRs.

[gridiron whirlwinds 10]

I really pay attention to it for weeks 14-16

 

It is nice to have a player going against someone like the Lions in those weeks.

[The Football Guru 224]

I think people give the schedule much less consideration than they should. After all, players accrue their numbers against the teams they play, the scheme and how often they get the ball. However, I don't use last year's SOS at all, but rather project what defenses will do this year after taking into account personnel and coaching changes. At the very least, owners should eye what players' fantasy playoff schedules look like before they draft them. But beyond that, by taking a deeper look into the schedule, an owner can find players that will struggle and excel before the season starts.

 

For instance, how is Larry Johnson going to excel when he has four games vs. the NFC East, one each against PIT and BAL, two more against a revitalized Charger defense and two more against improved defenses like JAX and CIN. On the other hand, take someone like Steve Slaton, who gets to play four games against the weaker defenses of the NFC West, two more vs. a Colts defense in transition, another vs. OAK and avoids NE (b/c they play in Week 17). No team gets to cruise through the entire season, but if you want to see how important a schedule can be to a player's numbers, look at Shaun Alexander and LT's record-breaking seasons and what teams the Seahawks and Chargers played against those seasons.

 

I'd like to tell you, but I don't like sharing secrets that I spent a lot of time trying to figure out on my own.

[Chronic Husker 86]

However, I don't use last year's SOS at all, but rather project what defenses will do this year after taking into account personnel and coaching changes

Agreed. Nearly posted this above.

[listen2me 23 1,958]

Only the last couple weeks count for me. And only if they are playing the Ravens or Steelers does it matter.

[KSB2424 3,174]

Don't even look at it unless there is a dead tie between two guys and SOS might be the tie breaker. It's better than flipping a coin. But I don't let it be a big factor in drafting.

 

I don't even look at it in weeks 14-16 BEFORE the draft. Number one, you have to get to the playoffs first. Number two, so much stuff changes that it really is a crapshoot. No matter how much you think you may know.

 

Now by week 7 or 8 I usually look at SOS more. I start planning for the playoffs or final push. This may help dictate trades and add/drops. That is when SOS really comes into play if you ask me. The season is at the halfway mark so we have actual current season success/failure to look at.

[kmbryant09 1]

I usually only apply it to RBs...with the passing game (QBs, WRs, TEs), it all depends on one big play, whether or not the top CB is on the #1 WR, blitzing schemes, etc...too inconsistent.

 

And when it comes to RBs, I only put a little stock in it, when I evaluate RBs, I rate them from 1-100 on 5 or 6 different categories, including talent, opportunity, and strength of schedule. SOS is probably the least important factor, as it usually only accounts for 10-15% of the rating. Also, when using this method, I don't vary the ratings for the respective RBs much unless it is a SIGNIFICANTLY easy or hard schedule...For instance, a very very generous schedule may receive a 98 or 100, while a somewhat difficult schedule may yield a 90-92.

[Road_Cats 2]

Detroit

St Louis

Arizona

Clevland

Cinn

Indianapolis

Denver

Kansas City

Oak

 

These are the bottom 15 in Run Defense this year. No particular order. But you can pencil it in and revisit.

[The Moz 72]

with Running backs it is huge and you never want your stud WR facing Oakland. It isn't the sole factor but I would say it means a lot if you want to win. SOS is most important with Running backs though. With QB you don't want them playing winter ball in playoffs.

[Chronic Husker 86]

Detroit

St Louis

Arizona

Clevland

Cinn

Indianapolis

Denver

Kansas City

Oak

 

These are the bottom 15 in Run Defense this year. No particular order. But you can pencil it in and revisit.

 

Agreed. Those are the bottom 15 in Run Defense. I'll revisit as soon as I learn to count to 15 (within five or so).