Will LenDale White steal carries from CJ?

[Cara 0]

I own them both in a couple leagues and have had many very good trade offers for CJ. I can't trade him because these are PPR Leagues and I think Johnson will be in on all the passing plays this season. I am beginning to wonder how may carries LenDale will vulture this season...... Any thoughts? He is in a contract year and obviously busting his butt as he has lost 30 pounds or so.

 

I can see Chris Johnson going off for something like 1,400 yards rushing and 50 receptions for another 300/400 yards. He's been available at the end of round one in many PPR drafts, however, I think he will perform like a top 5 back this season.

[Vikings4ever 496]

Kind of depends on how the team does. If they can get a decent lead and start running out the clock, I expect the Whale to get the majority of the carries. Playing from behind, Johnson gets the majority of carries.

 

They had a 55/45 split last year, I'd say probably the same this year.

[remote controller 133]

Chris Johnson's mouth and attitude went one direction this offseason and White's went the other. White is in shape and focused, while Johnson is being "every coaches nightmare". 60/40 split at the worse though. Fisher won't screw with him if he doesn't produce though, and will run White if he does produce.

[Houston Texans 10]

I own them both in a couple leagues and have had many very good trade offers for CJ. I can't trade him because these are PPR Leagues and I think Johnson will be in on all the passing plays this season. I am beginning to wonder how may carries LenDale will vulture this season...... Any thoughts? He is in a contract year and obviously busting his butt as he has lost 30 pounds or so.

 

I can see Chris Johnson going off for something like 1,400 yards rushing and 50 receptions for another 300/400 yards. He's been available at the end of round one in many PPR drafts, however, I think he will perform like a top 5 back this season.

"Steal" carries? Last year, they split carries, and I don't really see that changing too much.

Johnson will likely be the RB between the '20s, with White handling those areas, short-yardage, goal line carries, AND when the Titans are trying to "pound out the clock." Seeing as how Tennessee's rushing schedule looks much easier than what they faced last year, it's reasonable to assume that they will be trying to pound the clock fairly regularly. This could prevent Johnson from getting a lot of carries in the 4th quarters (When Tennessee had a small lead or tied, Johnson had 150 of his 251 carries; when leading big or behind, he had only 101). Furthermore, Johnson only had 4 carries on the goal line last year, so his TD value is somewhat limited. 4 of his 9 TDs were from 20+ yards (a fifth was from 16 yards out). Those kind of TDs are hard to predict. Johnson will likely get 40-50 receptions, for 300-400 yards.

 

Johnson-260 carries, 1196 yards (4.6 ypc), 43 rec, 310 yards (7.2 ypr), 8 total TDs (241.6 points in PPR)

 

RB9-11 projections in a PPR.

[the_risen_demon 0]

When Tennessee had a small lead or tied, Johnson had 150 of his 251 carries; when leading big or behind, he had only 101.

 

Two questions:

 

1. Where did you get that stat? I'd love to have a resource that has that kind of information available.

 

2. How much time was spent with "a small lead or tied" vs. "leading big or behind"? If they were equal, then it would seem to be a meaningful observation. If, however, Tennessee had a small lead or was tied 60% of the time, then 150 of 251 would only be on par.

[fanfootballtn 33]

Chris Johnson's mouth and attitude went one direction this offseason and White's went the other. White is in shape and focused, while Johnson is being "every coaches nightmare". 60/40 split at the worse though. Fisher won't screw with him if he doesn't produce though, and will run White if he does produce.

 

Excellent point. CJ refused to participate in OTA's and that's one thing Fisher hates especially coming off of a rookie season. Fisher has a way of bringing out the competitive side of players by playing other people like Kerry Collins. Secondly, Chris came into mini-camp talking about he wanted to separate himself from the "Smash and Dash" nickname then took a shot at Lendale calling him by his 1st name "Anthony White from USC". LenDale promised to work harder than anyone in the off-season to make up for that fumble during the Ravens game jumped on it the week after they lost. I think Fisher will reward LenDale with a few more carries especially inside of the redzone and give CJ less work outside of it. Unless CJ hit a couple of home runners, I don't see him putting up the same numbers as last year. It will be a humbling experience for CJ after this year.

[Evil Genius 0]

First post for a new season.

 

I recently traded away CJ in my PPR Keeper league for Marshawn Lynch and a 5th round pick. Now before anyone thinks I'm an idiot, it had to do with my other Keepers and my Draft needs....

 

That said, I hope the conjecture here is bang on and LenDale takes a bunch of the wind out of CJ's sails. The kid is extremely fast and talented - I recognize that, and looked extremely dangerous in the playoffs until he got hurt.

 

That said, if Lendale is working that hard, he will offset CJ's strengths with his own and deserves his carries. LenDale may make me feel better about this trade as time goes on...

[Cara 0]

Does anyone have any evidence of the Fisher not being happy with CJ? All I've read and heard is how they plan to have CJ on the field more this season and plan to utilize him as a receiver much more too. There were some very positive remarks made by Coach Fisher about CJ on the Titans website and quoted by the AP. He loves Johnson and their offensive coordinator has said his is the best 3 down back he's every coached....... I am sort of shocked by the number of people that seem to think CJ will still be splitting carries this much....... I was thinking more of a 70/30 split.

 

Also, if the Titans had any indication of retaining White, or using him frequently, they wouldn't have drafted Javon Ringer, in my opinion. I think White gets 30% of the carries and they let him walk after this season. White didn't lose weight because of his fumble in the playoffs........ He got in shape so he could get a fat contract at the end of this season. Some team using a RBBC will nab him.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

those kind of reports are typical where the team says they plan to use X player even more etc etc etc.....

 

The Titans were a very good football team last year with Lendale getting what 40% of the carries if not more? I didn't look it up but with nothing else really changing on that offense (I like Britt but how much will he contribute as a rookie) im not sure why they would change offensive philosophy drastically.

 

Whites dropping 30 pounds is definantely to show teams interested in giving him a contract. It could actually hurt him but who knows, if he can run with the same power and be a little quicker with more endurance....

[fanfootballtn 33]

Does anyone have any evidence of the Fisher not being happy with CJ? All I've read and heard is how they plan to have CJ on the field more this season and plan to utilize him as a receiver much more too. There were some very positive remarks made by Coach Fisher about CJ on the Titans website and quoted by the AP. He loves Johnson and their offensive coordinator has said his is the best 3 down back he's every coached....... I am sort of shocked by the number of people that seem to think CJ will still be splitting carries this much....... I was thinking more of a 70/30 split.

 

Also, if the Titans had any indication of retaining White, or using him frequently, they wouldn't have drafted Javon Ringer, in my opinion. I think White gets 30% of the carries and they let him walk after this season. White didn't lose weight because of his fumble in the playoffs........ He got in shape so he could get a fat contract at the end of this season. Some team using a RBBC will nab him.

 

I'm a homer and have been a Titan fans since they moved to TN. I have watched Fisher in interviews over the years and he has been very adamant about people not participating in the OTA's and training camp. This is the same coach who moved training camp to Austin Peay university making the players live in the dorms to create a bond. He always call players out in the media to put pressure on them and express his unhappiness with them not being there. A few people he's called out is Pac Man, Javon Curse, Samari Rolle, CJ, Abert Haynesworth, Lendale White and Vince Young. No doubt about it, he loves what CJ brings on the field however he will not tolerate off the field distractions and for CJ to say some of the things he has said this off season and refuse to work with the team may have Fisher concerned. Maybe they drafted Javon Ringer as an insurance if CJ gets hurt or does the "I'm not coming to training camp unless I get a new contract" in the future. Here is one article about Fisher refuting CJ declaring himself as "every coach's dream."

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/9726728...and-Dumber'

 

I don't think LenDale lost weight for a new contract. I think he really felt bad about fumbling in that game and dedicated his off season to make up for the mistake. I remember listening to Lendale on the radio talking about parties he was throwing after the games and inviting guess like Snoop Dog. He wasn't serious at all about football. Now he isn't hanging out and parting like that anymore. I believe it is sincere and with CJ throwing shots at him has only motivated him even more.

 

One thing I would like to add. All of the players I named were released after their contract was up except for the guys still under contract. The Titans resigned Jervon Kerse years later but only for the league minimum. No way they will invest in a player who refuses to come to training camp. Do you think the Titans are gonna resign VY or LenDale?

[the_risen_demon 0]

Does anyone have any evidence of the Fisher not being happy with CJ? All I've read and heard is how they plan to have CJ on the field more this season and plan to utilize him as a receiver much more too. There were some very positive remarks made by Coach Fisher about CJ on the Titans website and quoted by the AP. He loves Johnson and their offensive coordinator has said his is the best 3 down back he's every coached....... I am sort of shocked by the number of people that seem to think CJ will still be splitting carries this much....... I was thinking more of a 70/30 split.

 

Also, if the Titans had any indication of retaining White, or using him frequently, they wouldn't have drafted Javon Ringer, in my opinion. I think White gets 30% of the carries and they let him walk after this season. White didn't lose weight because of his fumble in the playoffs........ He got in shape so he could get a fat contract at the end of this season. Some team using a RBBC will nab him.

 

Although I think that it'll be more like a 60/30/10 split (with the 10 being picked up by Javon Ringer, et. al.), I think you mostly nailed it.

[Houston Texans 10]

Two questions:

 

1. Where did you get that stat? I'd love to have a resource that has that kind of information available.

 

2. How much time was spent with "a small lead or tied" vs. "leading big or behind"? If they were equal, then it would seem to be a meaningful observation. If, however, Tennessee had a small lead or was tied 60% of the time, then 150 of 251 would only be on par.

 

1) Chris Johnson Split Stats at FBG

 

2) The Titans ran 973 offensive plays last year. 453 were pass attempts, 508 were rushes (with 12 sacks allowed). 423 of those plays took place with a tie score or small Titan lead (tie score to 7 point lead). 302 plays took place when the Titans were trailing, and 248 plays took place when the Titans were up big (8 points or more). So 44% of the time, the Titans were tied or had a small lead, but Johnson had 60% of his carries during this time. The Titans ran 56% of their offensive plays with a big lead, or from behind, yet Johnon only got 40% of his carries during these times.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

I don't think LenDale lost weight for a new contract. I think he really felt bad about fumbling in that game and dedicated his off season to make up for the mistake. I remember listening to Lendale on the radio talking about parties he was throwing after the games and inviting guess like Snoop Dog. He wasn't serious at all about football. Now he isn't hanging out and parting like that anymore. I believe it is sincere and with CJ throwing shots at him has only motivated him even more.

 

I disagree and believe LenDale is very motivated by money. He's going to bust his butt for that next contract this year. This may be one of the better years to have him. If he gets a nice paycheck from someone with a lot of money up front, I don't want him after that.

[Ray_T 592]

I own them both in a couple leagues and have had many very good trade offers for CJ. I can't trade him because these are PPR Leagues and I think Johnson will be in on all the passing plays this season. I am beginning to wonder how may carries LenDale will vulture this season...... Any thoughts? He is in a contract year and obviously busting his butt as he has lost 30 pounds or so.

 

I can see Chris Johnson going off for something like 1,400 yards rushing and 50 receptions for another 300/400 yards. He's been available at the end of round one in many PPR drafts, however, I think he will perform like a top 5 back this season.

 

My guess is no.

 

CJ is a special talent and will be better than he was in his rookie year.

 

Lendale came into camp in the best shape of his life.

 

both will be better, but I predict the split in carries will be roughly the same as it was last year.

[mambokings 0]

So what if LenWhale lost a few pounds...he had about 800 to lose! He's still fat, just less so than before. He'll still be used for the dive plays up the middle. Fat guys are always popular in those roles. But Chris Johnson? He's a stud on the rise, the engine that moves this entire offense. I expect CJ's workload to increase by a large margin.

[49ers_suck 0]

My guess is no.

 

CJ is a special talent and will be better than he was in his rookie year.

 

Lendale came into camp in the best shape of his life.

 

both will be better, but I predict the split in carries will be roughly the same as it was last year.

this makes sense to me. it works for the Titans. they will want both guys healthy for a playoff run.

[DamageIncVacc 6]

Im a guy who drafted CJ last year and rode him to the championship and love his speed and talent but of the two I would rather have lendale for this one year in a TD heavy league. CJ will get more yards but Lendale will get more TD's. Numbers will be similar to last year i bet. 60/40 split with lendale having double the TD's of CJ and both being equal for fantasy pruposes. but I will stay away from the situation as I just hate these type of committies.you just pound your head against a wall as Lendale gets the third TD of the day and CJ has 15-105.

[the_risen_demon 0]

1) Chris Johnson Split Stats at FBG

 

2) The Titans ran 973 offensive plays last year. 453 were pass attempts, 508 were rushes (with 12 sacks allowed). 423 of those plays took place with a tie score or small Titan lead (tie score to 7 point lead). 302 plays took place when the Titans were trailing, and 248 plays took place when the Titans were up big (8 points or more). So 44% of the time, the Titans were tied or had a small lead, but Johnson had 60% of his carries during this time. The Titans ran 56% of their offensive plays with a big lead, or from behind, yet Johnon only got 40% of his carries during these times.

 

Thanks, way to come through with the stats. Let me see if I understand your argument correctly. Am I more or less right in saying that you believe that Johnson is more likely to get carries in a close game, but less likely to do so when the game is either already won or lost? I can see a reasonable argument being made from that stance. I wonder, though, why you would choose to include "trailing close" with "trailing big" and "leading big". After all, I think we can presume that whatever logic lead the Titans coaching staff to put Johnson in the game while tied would also lead them to putting him in while trailing close at the same rate. Also, if you think that Tennessee has an easier schedule in the coming year and that that is likely to affect their splits, shouldn't we separate out "trailing big" and "leading big"? If so, we should be looking at the splits of "trailing big" vs. "trailing close" + "tied" + "leading close" vs. "leading big", no?

 

If that's the case, we would be looking at:

 

---------------------------TB-------------------TC/T/LC---------------------LB

 

LenDale------------6/16 (37.5%)------131/339 (38.6%)-------78/137 (56.9%)

Johnson------------5/16 (31.3%)------203/339 (59.9%)-------54/137 (39.4%)

Other Backs------5/16 (31.3%)---------5/339 (1.5%)----------5/137 (36.5%)

 

So, if I follow you, your saying that because the Titans have an easier schedule in 2009, they are more likely to be leading big and, since White is relatively more likely to get carries in that situation, he is likely to carry a larger load in 2009? I can see your logic on that, though the Titans had a heck of a regular season last year, and I'm not sure that their time spent "leading big" is going to increase that much. Also, from what I've heard the Titans want to expand Johnson's role, so I'm not sure that last year's ratios will be applicable.

[jocstrap 8]

You guys are forgetting one huge/gigantic piece to this years puzzle. Albert Haynesworth's departure has me very nervous on the defensive end. I'm very afraid that opposing offenses will be able to move the ball much more in '09 than '08. I don't see very many games where the Titan's will be able to run the ball the entire 4th quarter. Now I could be wrong, but Haynesworth was that dominating IMO. This being said, I believe the Titan's are going to have to put up more points this year - touchdowns, not Bironas scoring 5 field goals a game.

 

White losing 30 pounds says a lot to me. I don't care if it's his contract year, or b/c he fumbled vs Baltimore - whatever the case - he's taken his offseason training to another level. Coach Fisher has to be loving this and will reward him.

 

I just don't see how the Titan's can run the ball this year as much as last year though. Partly b/c they were milking the clock in so many games last year. Supposedly, the offense is going to open the passing attack much more , so we'll see about that.

 

I've also read where CJII is going to be used more than last year. They will try to get him the ball more in open spaces ala Bush.

 

 

Chris Johnson predictions 1850 total yards and 13 td's

Lendale White predictions 850 total yards and 13 td's

 

More yards b/c they will need more points this year. Last year they counted on the defense to win several games once the lead was established. The defense won't be as good this year, so the offense will have to produce more yardage and points.

 

 

CJIII's numbers will increase while Whites will be very similar. Draft them both and be happy:)

[Dr. Octopus 0]

Also, if the Titans had any indication of retaining White, or using him frequently, they wouldn't have drafted Javon Ringer, in my opinion.

 

They drafted Ringer in the 5th round, most likely for depth. I'm not sure what their intentions are with White for this year or the future but Ringer has very little, if any, relevance to their plans for White. They aren't even similiar backs.

[VaTerp 0]

I dot see why this is really a question.

 

Of course White will steal carries. I dont see any reason why he wouldnt continue to get a similar share of carries as he did last year along with the GL/short yardage work.

 

They plan to use CJ more but I think you will see him utilized better in the passing game while still getting a similar number of carries. I dont see him being a 300 carry guy and think the Titans know that he is best used as some part of a tandem. In White and CJ they have 2 RBs who compliment each other perfectly.

 

I love CJ and posted such last year at this time when people laughed at me when I said he would be top 20 in PPRs. This year though I think he may be a bit overvalued. We'll see but those CJ owners hoping that White is just gonna disappear are likely to be disappointed.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

I dot see why this is really a question.

 

Of course White will steal carries. I dont see any reason why he wouldnt continue to get a similar share of carries as he did last year along with the GL/short yardage work.

 

They plan to use CJ more but I think you will see him utilized better in the passing game while still getting a similar number of carries. I dont see him being a 300 carry guy and think the Titans know that he is best used as some part of a tandem. In White and CJ they have 2 RBs who compliment each other perfectly.

 

I love CJ and posted such last year at this time when people laughed at me when I said he would be top 20 in PPRs. This year though I think he may be a bit overvalued. We'll see but those CJ owners hoping that White is just gonna disappear are likely to be disappointed.

 

[the_risen_demon 0]

I love CJ and posted such last year at this time when people laughed at me when I said he would be top 20 in PPRs. This year though I think he may be a bit overvalued. We'll see but those CJ owners hoping that White is just gonna disappear are likely to be disappointed.

 

I think CJ owners should hope White doesn't disappear. Johnson's game relies on his athleticism. He needs fresh legs to beat defends in second half of the game and the second half of the season. Johnson will be a lot more effective at 270 carries than at 320. As an owner, though, I'd be happy to see more of the red zone carries going to Johnson. That's where his real potential lies, not in getting an increase in carries.

[VaTerp 0]

I think CJ owners should hope White doesn't disappear. Johnson's game relies on his athleticism. He needs fresh legs to beat defends in second half of the game and the second half of the season. Johnson will be a lot more effective at 270 carries than at 320. As an owner, though, I'd be happy to see more of the red zone carries going to Johnson. That's where his real potential lies, not in getting an increase in carries.

 

Absolutely.

 

There is a reason that you are seeing more and more RB tandems in the NFL now and its not to screw over FF owners. Its b/c it works. Lendale White is gonna get his carries. Period. And due to size/running style a lot of those are gonna be in GL/short yardage situations. This is why I dont really understand why its a question if he will "steal" carries.

 

It would be nice for CJ owners to see him get some more red zone work but I think the real room for improvement is in the passing game. CJ only averaged 6 ypr last year, only went over 34 yards receiving in 1 game, and had 19 yards or less in 11 games. I watched most Titans games last year and CJ's role never seemed to click like it should have. Timing was not right on screen passes and Collins never seemed to check down quickly enough.

 

If CJ can step up to the 50-60 catch range, increase his yard per to 7.5, and catch a few more TDs out of the backfield I think thats where his jump in production will come from. I really see his running game totals remaining relatively the same.

[the_risen_demon 0]

It would be nice for CJ owners to see him get some more red zone work but I think the real room for improvement is in the passing game. CJ only averaged 6 ypr last year, only went over 34 yards receiving in 1 game, and had 19 yards or less in 11 games. I watched most Titans games last year and CJ's role never seemed to click like it should have. Timing was not right on screen passes and Collins never seemed to check down quickly enough.

 

If CJ can step up to the 50-60 catch range, increase his yard per to 7.5, and catch a few more TDs out of the backfield I think thats where his jump in production will come from. I really see his running game totals remaining relatively the same.

 

So true. While I was certainly happy having drafted Johnson, I was surprised how little involvement in the passing game he had, given that he was recruited to ECU as a wide out. He didn't look spectacular when they did throw him the ball, but if he can improve that aspect of his game he'll be a lot more valuable to the fantasy community.