Look-Alike Players: Marques Colston vs. Dwayne Bowe

[Fumbleweed 426]

Look-Alike Players seeks to try to distinguish between two players whose redraft values appear to be almost identical. Today, the choice is Marques Colston vs. Dwayne Bowe.

 

Feel free to vote and then add thoughts on why you voted for who you did throughout the thread. This is an old FFToday feature that will be continued this spring/summer as dictated by the interest it garners. Interest with regards to the last two has waned some, so we'll see how things go with this matchup.

 

Results so far in '09:

 

Braylon Edwards over Chad Johnson, 17-10.

Tom Brady over Peyton Manning, 14-6.

Chris Johnson over Steve Slaton, 31-18.

Ronnie Brown over Ryan Grant, 21-9.

Donald Driver over Derrick Mason, 14-8.

Brandon Jacobs over Marion Barber, 20-14.

Matt Schaub over Matt Ryan, 21-15.

Reggie Wayne over Steve Smith, 26-15.

Owen Daniels over Chris Cooley, 15-9.

Vincent Jackson over DeSean Jackson, 11-5.

Darren McFadden over Thomas Jones, 27-20.

[enis_44 0]

Colsten is better and on a better offense and with a better Qb.

 

The only thing I could possibly come up with would be injury, but I don't predict injuries.

[FlaHawker 24]

This is a tough call IMO. Right now if I were drafting I would have to go Bowe and that is who I voted for. The reason: Colston has missed 10 games over the past three years. Yes he has Drew Brees and yes he is a stud WR. However, Dwayne Bowe has shown himself to be consistent and generally injury free, and with Cassell and Todd Haley and the absence of Gonzo, he should only improve. The compiler has Colston about 20 pts or so better than Bowe this year, but if Colston misses a few games again that adavantage disappears. ADP has them right around the same area 3.02 for Colston and 3.06 for Bowe so if I have to choose right now, I'm taking the guy who hasn't been injured. But this is no knock on Colston and by the time August drafts come around I could easily draft him as well. Right now, though, I'm taking Bowe.

[FlaHawker 24]

Colsten is better and on a better offense and with a better Qb.

 

The only thing I could possibly come up with would be injury, but I don't predict injuries.

I never predict injury either, but I can't discount the fact that Colston has missed 10 games over three years.

[Shox 0]

I think Bowe by slim margin. Bowe has several things which should help him continue to move up the WR pecking order.

1. Much better QB play than the past two years. No matter what your opinion of Cassel he is a much more accurate passer than Thyigpen.

2. New pass oriented coach.

3. No Tony Gonzales means he will be the #1 primary target and especially in the red zone. His TD total should easily double from last years 7.

4. He appears to be maturing and his work ethic has improved this offseason. A more hardline headcoach won't hurt either.

5. And maybe the most important....the Chiefs will continue to play from behind a lot so throwing the rock will be an absolute must.

 

You add all of this up and put it with Bowe amazing talent, he is a beast after the catch, and his numbers should improve again in his third season.

 

Contrast Colston. A very good wr in a great offense, but they have so many weapons. Coming off a serious injury (and the fact he has a little bit of an injury bug) I just don't see him putting up the numbers like he did in 2007. Close but a small step backwards......75/1000/8 seem about right.

[greggorymac 0]

I think Bowe by slim margin. Bowe has several things which should help him continue to move up the WR pecking order.

1. Much better QB play than the past two years. No matter what your opinion of Cassel he is a much more accurate passer than Thyigpen.

2. New pass oriented coach.

3. No Tony Gonzales means he will be the #1 primary target and especially in the red zone. His TD total should easily double from last years 7.

4. He appears to be maturing and his work ethic has improved this offseason. A more hardline headcoach won't hurt either.

5. And maybe the most important....the Chiefs will continue to play from behind a lot so throwing the rock will be an absolute must.

 

You add all of this up and put it with Bowe amazing talent, he is a beast after the catch, and his numbers should improve again in his third season.

 

Contrast Colston. A very good wr in a great offense, but they have so many weapons. Coming off a serious injury (and the fact he has a little bit of an injury bug) I just don't see him putting up the numbers like he did in 2007. Close but a small step backwards......75/1000/8 seem about right.

 

There is no way Bowe's TDs will double. If he's lucky he may break double digits. True Tony's departure makes him the #1 primary target and gives Bowe more red zone opportunities.... but on the flip side, I think Tony's departure also hurts KC's ability to sustain drives, and move down the field to get those red zone opportunities. Bowe is going to see a lot of double coverage this season (as their are less options in KC). Temper your expectations.

 

I think Bowe is a better athlete than Colston... I just don't like the his offensive situation.

[enis_44 0]

3. No Tony Gonzales means he will be the #1 primary target and especially in the red zone. His TD total should easily double from last years 7.

14 Td's? How do you figure? That's a huge number for a wr. One could just as easily argue that without Gonzo, Bowe is the only legit receiving threat left to cover. His Td's could easily go down.

 

I'd rather draft the guy who has actually put up the big numbers before. Colsten.

[Shox 0]

14 Td's? How do you figure? That's a huge number for a wr. One could just as easily argue that without Gonzo, Bowe is the only legit receiving threat left to cover. His Td's could easily go down.

 

I'd rather draft the guy who has actually put up the big numbers before. Colsten.

 

and you certainly can, but I will take Bowe for the reasons I stated. The Chiefs offense will be better than last year so Bowe will get his redzone opportunities. 14 is a good number of TDs for a WR, but it's not a ridiculous number. Bowe will get more TDs than Colston and I think it will approach 14, thats my opinion.

[nordwave 2]

I like both.

Drafting at the top, if both my Round 2 RB targets are gone, I wouldn't mind taking both Colston and Bowe at the 2-3 turn.

That's happened a few times in mocks.

If I can only choose one, I'd probably take Bowe. Just a hunch.

[greggorymac 0]

I like both.

Drafting at the top, if both my Round 2 RB targets are gone, I wouldn't mind taking both Colston and Bowe at the 2-3 turn.

That's happened a few times in mocks.

If I can only choose one, I'd probably take Bowe. Just a hunch.

 

I'm drafting from top as well (1.02 in a 12 team league), so out of curiosity, whom do you think will be available? There's a big drop-off after Jacobs IMHO, so I'm torn between going Wr-Wr or RB-Wr at the 2-3 turn

[Shox 0]

14 Td's? How do you figure? That's a huge number for a wr. One could just as easily argue that without Gonzo, Bowe is the only legit receiving threat left to cover. His Td's could easily go down.

 

If I counted the list corrected 45 WR have recorded 14 or more TD in a season. 14 is a lot, but not exactly unheard of if it's be done 45 times.

[nordwave 2]

I'm drafting from top as well (1.02 in a 12 team league), so out of curiosity, whom do you think will be available? There's a big drop-off after Jacobs IMHO, so I'm torn between going Wr-Wr or RB-Wr at the 2-3 turn

 

I'd be happy with Ronnie Brown as my RB#2 in the 2nd or 3rd round. Maybe Pierre Thomas.

Otherwise I feel better going WR-WR.

[We Tigers 71]

This is a good one, and I like both guys a lot. I think Bowe hits or just exceeds his yardage from last year and gets more TDs since he becomes the clear red zone leader. I like him to hit 80/1100/9, with being the clear #1 balancing somewhat with the increased coverage and tougher assignments he may see. Even though all of Bowe's scores last year came from inside the 20, so did 9 of Gonzo's. With a different QB and different offense, things are a bit unpredictable, but I'm confident in calling for a few more scores.

 

Colston came back a game or two too soon last year, but was stellar after the bye week, putting up 42/680/5 in eight games. The two biggest marks against him are health and the Saints' multitude of weapons. Microfracture surgery sounds scary, even given the advances in it and the fact that NBA players now seem to get microfracture surgery and come back fine like it ain't no thang. Initially I'm put off by the fact that there are so many targets on the Saints, but Moore's huge numbers fell off shortly after Colston's return to form, and just about every catch Bush is going to get Thomas was getting while Bush was on IR. Oh, and Drew Brees is throwing the ball. Ultimately, Colston's potential is too much for me to pass up, so he gets the slightest of nods.

[49ers_suck 0]

Colston. i just like his situation MUCH better.

[kmbryant09 1]

If I counted the list corrected 45 WR have recorded 14 or more TD in a season. 14 is a lot, but not exactly unheard of if it's be done 45 times.

 

14 TDs would put Bowe as a top3 WR, if not the #1 WR...Is that where you have him ranked??

 

To the original post: I think both WRs will put up solid #s, but I don't know a whole lot about Bowe and his talents. My only concern is that the Chiefs, while re-building, don't look to be all that competitive...yes it leads to more throwing, but it also leads to less possessions, less ball control, far fewer red zone opportunities and TDs. If and when the Chiefs get down a lot, sure they'll throw it...but at that time the DEF can say "shut down Bowe" and force other less-talented players to beat them. Colston, on the other hand, is in an offense that spreads the ball around. Usually in these cases there's not enough to go around to make any fantasy studs out of the offense, but the Saints clearly have enough to go around. Brees will likely throw the ball 600 times, and with a healthy Colston and a shaky L. Moore, I think Colston won't have a problem hitting 85/1200/9...I'm going Colston

[enis_44 0]

If I counted the list corrected 45 WR have recorded 14 or more TD in a season. 14 is a lot, but not exactly unheard of if it's be done 45 times.

Going back to 2002, when I started playing FFB, there have been exactly 7 times in 7 seasons where a Wr scored 14 or more Td's. (funny thing, they came in bunches. a bunch of 0's, and 2 seasons where 3 players did it)

 

Anyway, with 14 Td's, you are realistically predicting that Dwayne Bowe will be the #1 fantasy Wr this year. I disagree with that assesment.

[DeaLerZ 0]

http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=dway...e&resnum=4#

 

here is a link so you can get the jist of what kind of player Dwayne Bowe is...he is a big boy...i like what i see

[surferskin 30]

I bet you think they all look-alike, Fumble.

[remote controller 133]

I hope to not have to draft either but would take the 5,000 yard offense over the lack of one, and the 5,000 yard passer over the guy who is on the new team without that teams best receiver.

[Lionsjunkie 1]

Bowe is a far better reciever IMO...Sure Colston has the better QB but my money is on Bowe.

[rozniarek 0]

I like bowe.Remember the third year is the break out season for WR.He is healthier by far and his team will be behind a lot.not to mention the defenses are a lot weaker.i really think he will be a top 5 WR.

[TheShoe1010 1]

Kansas City is a mess. Now there are rumors that Croyle is pressuring Cassel for his job and Bowe can't learn the playbook. The bottom line is, the Saints are a prolific offense and they'll be throwing a ton unless their defense is leaps and bounds better. Look for Colston to put up 1200 and 8-10 TD's. That is, if he can stay healthy. That's the only knock on the guy in my eyes.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Gimme anyone on NO's offense over anyone on KC's offense.

[RoadLizard 73]

Colston. i just like his situation MUCH better.

 

I agree, but Im still trying to trade him this offseason in order to gain an extra pick and keep DeSean Jackson. The injury thing bothers me with Colston and the emeregence of Shockey also bugs me.

[edmarek 0]

I voted for Colston, but more as a vote against Bowe. KC's offense is a mess.

 

Regarding Colston, my concern isn't so much injury as it is targets: Moore, Henderson, Meachem (this might be his year to light it up), Shockey, Bush, Thomas.

 

NO's offense will rock again, but the only certain beneficiary of major fantasy production is Brees.

 

Colston will get his stats, but I'm not sure he'll finish as high as he's being drafted (as high as 10th).

 

In any case, I think the highlight reels will be dominated by Meachem's sporadic 70 yard TD jaunts.