Fitz, AJ, Moss or Calvin?

[cooolbreeze 0]

I've seen AJ taken before Fitz in a few mocks and I've even seen Moss taken as the first WR in one.

 

I think Fitz is probably the safest pick. He's in a passing system (although the drafting of Bennie Wells makes me think they will be counting on the pass a little less this year). It's hard to double him with all the other weapons they have...which makes him basically uncoverable. Do those other weapons take away from how may times he's targeted? That hurts in PPR.

 

AJ probably has the most upside. He is going to be targeted the most which helps in PPR but, not only is he an injury risk but, his QB is always hurt too.

 

Moss may score more TD's that either of these two but he won't have nearly as many receptions. How much does that matter if he's scores more and averages more yards per reception?

 

Calvin Johnson put up great numbers with no QB help. He can turn any reception into a TD. The QB should be better but, Defenses will be keying on him.

 

So, what order do I place them in PPR?

 

Fitz

AJ

Moss

CJ

[jgcrawfish 232]

I've seen AJ taken before Fitz in a few mocks and I've even seen Moss taken as the first WR in one.

 

I think Fitz is probably the safest pick. He's in a passing system (although the drafting of Bennie Wells makes me think they will be counting on the pass a little less this year). It's hard to double him with all the other weapons they have...which makes him basically uncoverable. Do those other weapons take away from how may times he's targeted? That hurts in PPR.

 

AJ probably has the most upside. He is going to be targeted the most which helps in PPR but, not only is he an injury risk but, his QB is always hurt too.

 

Moss may score more TD's that either of these two but he won't have nearly as many receptions. How much does that matter if he's scores more and averages more yards per reception?

 

Calvin Johnson put up great numbers with no QB help. He can turn any reception into a TD. The QB should be better but, Defenses will be keying on him.

 

So, what order do I place them in PPR?

 

Fitz

AJ

Moss

CJ

 

PPR I like the following order:

 

AJ

Fitz

Moss

CJ

 

listed in that order simply because of a bit of uncertainty at the QB spot for CJ and Moss. Moss has the highest ceiling if Brady is back and fully healthy for training camp, obviously. I'm not sure it really matters, IMO these 4 and maybe Jennings are head and shoulders above the next ones on the list, with Steve (CAR) Smith, Roddy White, Boldin, Marshall and Welker making up the next set. FWIW, since we're talking PPR, Chad Johnson will be a great value.

[We Tigers 71]

I see Fitz and AJ as extremely close, Moss just a little bit down, and...well, I don't know about Calvin. I'm a little concerned about Megatron because I don't know how efficient the Detroit passing game will be this year, and I also don't know if he's going to get as much of the work as he did last year. The Lions have made a lot of offseason improvements, and to me that suggests it's going to be less of a "throw it in the air and see if Calvin can bring it down" offense. I'm not saying Bryant Johnson/Ronald Curry/Dennis Northcutt are even worth drafting, but they'll take some work away.

 

What I really keep coming back to are his TDs. He's a special talent, but he caught 12/18 Detroit TD passes last year. That's 66%! I don't get the sense that's really supposed to happen on a properly functioning offense. I'm not sure if Culpepper/Stafford will even hit 18 TD passes again. I could see Detroit's improvements leading to a statistical step back for Calvin, even if his team is overall much better. To me, he's not on the same drafting tier as the other 3 top guys for this year--I put him somewhere in the middle of S. Smith/Jennings/Wayne/White.

[unckeyherb 2]

Fitz and Andre finished 1 and 2 in my ppr league last year with a difference of .5 points. This year i think Adre actually improves on his numbers, stemming from more TD's. Hes never gotten double digit TDs, which is kind of insane. I think this year he will be #1 WR by quite a bit. I'd rank them:

 

1. Andre

2a. Moss

2b. Fitz

 

 

 

3. Calvin

 

If Brady is healthy moss could easily be #1 overall. I don't see Calvin repeating his numbers from last year, and I have read that the Cards are looking to rely a bit more on the run game. I don't see Fitz repeating as #1 overall (as this pretty much never happens.)

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Since you create a thread about this is it safe to assume almost a coin flip?

 

AJ - Will get a ton of looks, has an accurate QB. QB has had trouble staying healthy.

Fitz - Will get a ton of looks, has an accurate QB. Shares almost evenly with Boldin when both are healthy.

Calvin - Will get a ton of looks, has crap at QB. Team is bad but Calvin is so good he's still in this discussion.

Moss - Could get a ton of looks, has an accurate QB. Team's great. Getting older. If Brady's healthy, he's capable of 2007 numbers.

 

I look at all these guys and believe that only Moss is capable of a freakish season, the others are capable of great seasons.

 

1 Moss

2 AJ

3 Fitz

4 Calvin

[WhiteWonder 2,186]

I don't see Calvin repeating his numbers from last year, and I have read that the Cards are looking to rely a bit more on the run game.

 

does the Cards run game have a profound impact on the Lions passing game? j/k i know what you meant.

 

in a PPR

 

AJ

Fitz

Moss

CJ

[DeaLerZ 0]

Since you create a thread about this is it safe to assume almost a coin flip?

 

AJ - Will get a ton of looks, has an accurate QB. QB has had trouble staying healthy.

Fitz - Will get a ton of looks, has an accurate QB. Shares almost evenly with Boldin when both are healthy.

Calvin - Will get a ton of looks, has crap at QB. Team is bad but Calvin is so good he's still in this discussion.

Moss - Could get a ton of looks, has an accurate QB. Team's great. Getting older. If Brady's healthy, he's capable of 2007 numbers.

 

I look at all these guys and believe that only Moss is capable of a freakish season, the others are capable of great seasons.

 

1 Moss

2 AJ

3 Fitz

4 Calvin

 

 

well said... anywhere from 8-12 tds from all the others besides Moss... Moss has the most upside, but has a little bit of a lower floor than AJ and Fitz who are the safer picks because of their receptions and yardage.... Calvin realistically I can't see him doing any better than last season because of the team he is on... if he was on the Colts or a pass happy offense... than look out the guy could have crazy numbers... but i just don't see that this year from Detroit... obviously last year they were more desperate and were always down and figured why the hell not.. lets just bomb it to Calvin and hope he comes down with it.. i think this year they are at least thinking they can win a few games, and are hoping to do that with some sort of game plan that involves Kevin Smith and the running game.... however with Calvins size and unique talent ... the guy is going to get a good amount of TD's no matter what...

 

it really just comes down to what player you like more... or if you prefer touchdowns or receptions based on the scoring in your league

[#1LionFan 0]

Kills me how people are posting silly things like uncertainty at QB for Moss and CJ. You call Brady an uncertain thing? He is going to be 100% fine. The success of QBs coming off this type of injury the following year is well documented. And CJ is a beast regardless of the QB. Look at the #s he posted last year with pure scrap throwing to him. I think the biggest risk-reward player is AJ myself with his injury history and Scaub's injury history.

 

You cant lose with drafting any of them but in a PPR I go:

 

Fitz - most sure thing

AJ - only thing that will hold him is injury to him or QB

CJ - he will only get more targets as O improves

Moss - in a PPR format Welker and others take a lot away

 

non-PPR I may go Fitz, Moss, AJ, CJ

[WhiteWonder 2,186]

In a non PPR, i would take Randy Moss hands down, especially with Brady back... In a PPR he just doesn't catch enough balls with Welker in the mix. Im almost tempted to put him 4th but the Lions are just so damn bad.... CJ is a shining star regardless but if I can see any of these guys having a rough time, it's him. Rookie QB, poor line, no other good options in the passing game.

 

Out of Fitz and AJ, Fitz is the safer play but AJ has the higher ceiling.

[remote controller 133]

Moss

AJ

Fitz

CJ

[mgs316 14]

I'm always chicken so I take the safest bets.

 

1. Fitz

2. Moss

3. Dre

4. Calvin

 

Doesn't Boldin or Wayne have to fit in there somewhere? Calvin rules but rookie QB has to hurt.

[9-Route 0]

lots of varying yet contradictory views here.

 

moss being labelled as "not catching enough balls": if an ffer assumes brady's health and return to level of play, then the 96rec of moss07 should not deter anyone in a PPR. even if fitz/AJ catch 108, moss def will catch 2 more TDs than them [the 12 pts]. if the sentiment is tempered, then i can see the downgrade; however, even if they are not humming 07-style, he could post 15+TDs and make up ground on rec/yd counts.

 

megatron08 mirrored early moss---largely using just pure physical talent to dominate. those yrs moss was also posting sub-80-ish recs [69-77-80 his first 3 seasons?], ~1400yds, and lots of TDs [17,11,15?]. he gets the "inconsistent qb play in detroit" label: how much different can it get than last season? most say it was the worst it can get, and can only imnprove, while the cocktail for evaluation includes multiple starters+bad defense/playing from behind+not many other receiving threats. most analysts say he posted elite stats despite this mix. surely there must be a chance for increase in level of play now that culpepper is not as flabbby, rushed from the sofa to suit up, has his favorite coordinator, and is back with an ultra-elite weapon?

 

andre johnson is the most hyped of this group. the past 5 yrs ive always scoffed at the love he gets, including his questionable pro bowl berth after posting 1150-6 [bruce and bennett had better stats that yr]. he teased us for half of 07, then put it together in 08 to "prove the backers/predictors/fans correct"; yet, he cant post elite TD levels [much like steve shrimp]. he does not get the red zone passing looks [walter]. maybe it stems from the origination of the playbook---kubiak from shanahan, which never really featured wr iso/jumpball passing? either way, his TD counts still place him below those other 3 guys. he indeed showed his potential to lead in recs and yds, but TDs can make up ground, esp when your getting doubled. i def agree that this guy has the most shaky injury concerns, both directly [himself] and indirectly [his passer].

[kmbryant09 1]

I'm not willing to spend a low 1st rounder or high 2nd rounder on Moss, for a few reasons:

-Brady's injury...say what you want about him, but Peyton Manning this past season is a PRIME example of how long it takes QBs to recover from surgeries. Even if his health is 100%, he hasn't taken a competitve snap in 12 months.

-McDaniels is gone...he's taking the system with him, and while the Pats will still look to their passing game, I just don't see the same proficiency from them. They have a plethora of RBs and a solid OLine, and they experienced what happens when Brady gets hurt (aka trying to protect him by running the ball more).

-Randy Moss is 32...and while he hasn't shown many signs of aging, it will happen eventually. And if he loses even 1/2 of step, that will effect what he does best - the deep ball.

 

I think Fitz is #1, while AJ and CJ are a toss up for #2. It amazes me how people 'confidently' have Moss over Calvin. Moss had a much better QB last year, a much more 'pass-happy' offense, and still recorded 9 less catches, 323 less yards, and 1 less TD The QB play in DET CAN'T get any worse, and the Lions actually upgraded at WR to help take some pressure off CJ. There's no better talent then Calvin, and he still put up top3 #s last year with everything working against him.

[We Tigers 71]

The thing that continues to bother me is that 66% of the TDs figure. I did a quick skim of the past 5 years' stats, and Calvin '08 has the highest percentage of team receiving TDs in that stretch. Closest behind is Joey Galloway '05 (10/17 TDs) with Galloway dropping to 50% of the team TDs the next seasons. Braylon's big year isn't that far behind either.

 

It's all about a regression to the mean. Calvin's 12/18 TD season is one of the biggest outliers for a receiver in recent memory. Even if QB play in Detroit yields the same number of TDs, I'm much more confident that Calvin will regress to 8-9 TDs than I am that he'll maintain 12 or be able to increase this year. Matt Ryan pretty much set the bar for Effective Rookie Starters at 16 TDs last year and I don't think Stafford would match him, and if Culpepper gets the starts I don't see him pushing much higher than that either (since falling off after 2004, Culpepper has an averaged a miserable 1 TD/38 attempts--he sucks). Maybe 20 TDs, if he's really, really improved and Detroit really gets to slinging it.

 

Calvin's too good to be a bust; you put anyone in there, and he'll still get 1200 yards and 7 or 8 scores. I just think there are way more reasons to put him in tier 2 for 2009 than there are to put him in tier 1.

[WhiteWonder 2,186]

lots of varying yet contradictory views here.

 

moss being labelled as "not catching enough balls": if an ffer assumes brady's health and return to level of play, then the 96rec of moss07 should not deter anyone in a PPR. even if fitz/AJ catch 108, moss def will catch 2 more TDs than them [the 12 pts]. if the sentiment is tempered, then i can see the downgrade; however, even if they are not humming 07-style, he could post 15+TDs and make up ground on rec/yd counts.

 

last year Moss caught 60something with Cassel. My guess is this season he ends up somewhere between that number 75-80 catches as Welker has had more time to establish himself.

[heavy-set 39]

i like AJ as the #1.

 

Super bowl losers rarely make the playoffs again, warner may not have the same year either (will leinart play), the cards are sorry on the road.

I think fitz will be great, but wont repeat his #s from last yr.

 

is moss a catch wr? i dont think so, he is a big play/td guy

calvin? rook qb, lions?

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

I'm not willing to spend a low 1st rounder or high 2nd rounder on Moss, for a few reasons:

-Brady's injury...say what you want about him, but Peyton Manning this past season is a PRIME example of how long it takes QBs to recover from surgeries. Even if his health is 100%, he hasn't taken a competitve snap in 12 months.

-McDaniels is gone...he's taking the system with him, and while the Pats will still look to their passing game, I just don't see the same proficiency from them. They have a plethora of RBs and a solid OLine, and they experienced what happens when Brady gets hurt (aka trying to protect him by running the ball more).

-Randy Moss is 32...and while he hasn't shown many signs of aging, it will happen eventually. And if he loses even 1/2 of step, that will effect what he does best - the deep ball.

 

All good points. The problem I have is 2007. There were so many knocks against Moss going into 2007 when he became a Patriot. He wasn't healthy, he didn't care, he'd lost a step, Brady was good but not a great FF QB, etc. I believed all that then and lost money because of it. Moss may not be as safe as Fitz, or even AJ, but he damn well offers the highest ceiling of this group.

 

 

98 rec/1493 yds/23 td's

[9-Route 0]

last year Moss caught 60something with Cassel. My guess is this season he ends up somewhere between that number 75-80 catches as Welker has had more time to establish himself.

 

right, and i think kmbryant sentiments a similar line of thinking.

 

welker is def the route that the pats and brady will rely upon early to get back into the swing of things and sharpen consistency.

 

it's refreshing for me to see another ffer not enamored with brady and actually tempering expectations of him.

 

moss has always been a guy who can post a sub-5 rec/TD ratio. the tough and intriguing part---and obviously best part for me being the consummate wr guy--- of this is the fact that none of the other 3 players in this topic have ever posted ultra-elite TD totals. even fitzgerald, who previewed a potential 2009 coronation ceremony with a spectacular 2008 playoff appetizer, has 'only' hit 12 twice; calvin got his 12 last yr; andre has not even smelled double-digits [the aforementioned 'being doubled']. so while we can appreciate the volume of welker or potentially sub-optimal play of brady, it still remains that moss can trump these 3 guys by posting an ultra-elite TD tally [of which he has 4] to make up the points.

 

like jarvis said, the other factor here is belichick: he, moss, and brady have already shown the propensity to call the game like a teen on madden---pump the play that works all the time. this furthers the above regarding moss, and continues to make it tough to place these guys on the 09draft chart using their pre07 and pre08 rankings.

[The Moz 69]

all 4 being bvasically equal go for the most talented right now - Fitz

[Turf CamelToe 1]

1) AJ

 

2) Fitz

 

3) CJ

 

4) Moss

[FantasyBowl33 0]

I'm not willing to spend a low 1st rounder or high 2nd rounder on Moss, for a few reasons:

-Brady's injury...say what you want about him, but Peyton Manning this past season is a PRIME example of how long it takes QBs to recover from surgeries. Even if his health is 100%, he hasn't taken a competitive snap in 12 months. -

The difference with Manning last year and Brady coming into this year is that Manning didn't participate in any football drills all summer, did very little work until he took his first snap in week 1.

 

Brady has been working with receivers since March, parrtcipate in the mini-camps and will have all of Training Camp.

 

Rivers and Palmer had similar injuries with much less rehab time then Brady and both had successful 1st years coming back.

[DeaLerZ 0]

The difference with Manning last year and Brady coming into this year is that Manning didn't participate in any football drills all summer, did very little work until he took his first snap in week 1.

 

Brady has been working with receivers since March, parrtcipate in the mini-camps and will have all of Training Camp.

 

Rivers and Palmer had similar injuries with much less rehab time then Brady and both had successful 1st years coming back.

 

I think you bring up a great point, training camp really has a lot to do with a Quarterback coming back from an Injury and where Manning struggled the most was those first 4 games or so because of that.... Brady should be back in full swing, and I don't think their system is going to change too much with a new offensive coordinator.. they are going to do what works... like 9-route and javaris stated below

 

moss has always been a guy who can post a sub-5 rec/TD ratio. the tough and intriguing part---and obviously best part for me being the consummate wr guy--- of this is the fact that none of the other 3 players in this topic have ever posted ultra-elite TD totals. even fitzgerald, who previewed a potential 2009 coronation ceremony with a spectacular 2008 playoff appetizer, has 'only' hit 12 twice; calvin got his 12 last yr; andre has not even smelled double-digits [the aforementioned 'being doubled']. so while we can appreciate the volume of welker or potentially sub-optimal play of brady, it still remains that moss can trump these 3 guys by posting an ultra-elite TD tally [of which he has 4] to make up the points.

 

like jarvis said, the other factor here is belichick: he, moss, and brady have already shown the propensity to call the game like a teen on madden---pump the play that works all the time. this furthers the above regarding moss, and continues to make it tough to place these guys on the 09draft chart using their pre07 and pre08 rankings.

 

 

All good points. The problem I have is 2007. There were so many knocks against Moss going into 2007 when he became a Patriot. He wasn't healthy, he didn't care, he'd lost a step, Brady was good but not a great FF QB, etc. I believed all that then and lost money because of it. Moss may not be as safe as Fitz, or even AJ, but he damn well offers the highest ceiling of this group.

98 rec/1493 yds/23 td's

 

Moss is worth the risk... because your looking at a floor of around 70 receptions, 10 tds, and 1000yds (195.00 ff pts), and a ceiling of around 90 receptions, 1400yds and 20tds (305.00 ff pts)..... in my opinion that makes him the #1 WR... because your drafting on what range you think that player will end up... and no matter what the guy is going to end up in the top 3-5 based on TD's alone and Brady's return... anywhere in the middle of that makes him potentially the #1 FF WR at the end of the season... rarely do you find a receiver that posts multiple seasons with more than 10tds... this guy is still a stud worth drafting... he has finally gotten a hall of fame QB throwing to him.... one of the reasons why Jerry Rice's career was as successful as it was... because he went from Montana to Young... we've seen what Moss did in his one season with a great QB, and we have seen what he has done his whole career with all different QB's... DRAFT HIM

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver 0]

I like to think more in terms of dynasty leagues, so here is where I have them ranked for PPR:

 

1) Calvin Johnson - 6'6 240 lbs, unreal speed and vertical. The sky is the limit for this guy. I think Stafford will get him the ball big time! I know I would fall in love with CJ if I was a young QB.

 

2) Andre Johnson - I like his talent equally to Larry Fittz, but I like Houston's QB situation over the next 5 years more than I do Arizona's. Andre is a bit faster too, which I love.

 

3) Larry Fitzgerald - Again I like as much as Andre Johnson as far as talent, Larry is a bit more physical. I do not like Arizona's QB situation....even this year for that matter. If Warner stays healthy, fine.....but as soon as Warner goes down or retires, Matty L. spells big trouble for Fitz's production. I am not a Leinart fan and I'd have Fitz ranked out of the top 5 for dynasty if Warner had retired this year.

 

4) Greg Jennings - This guy will continue to get better & better.....and I hate to say it, but Aaron Rodgers is the real deal. Get Jennings now if you can!

 

5) Marques Colston - down year in 2008 because of injury, but he has Brees at least another 5 years. Colston is money in PPR and a great value compared to 1-3.

 

Moss would be ranked around #10 or #11 for me in dyanasty....he might have 2-3 very productive years left before he tails off - afterall he is 32 years old and has to be on the down swing. I'd have Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Boldin, Wayne, and Bowe all infront of Moss for dynasty.

[Darko M 0]

If Brady looks good during preseason I have no doubt that Moss will be the 1st receiver taken in my PPR...end of the 1st. It's just toooooo hard to ignore his ceiling.

 

I think Calvin is the obvious 4th best out of the players listed, and the other two are a wash...you can't really go wrong.

[MadBacker52 0]

If Brady looks good during preseason I have no doubt that Moss will be the 1st receiver taken in my PPR...end of the 1st. It's just toooooo hard to ignore his ceiling.

 

I think Calvin is the obvious 4th best out of the players listed, and the other two are a wash...you can't really go wrong.

 

AJ or Fitz, edge to AJ with it being PPR.