My 1st four rounds in PPR (top 48) players

[madd futher mucker 36]

Round 1

1. MJD

2. ADP

3. A Johnson

4. R Moss

5. Fitz

6. Calvin - note: I have these 4 WRs in order of projected points but they are all in the same tier above other RBs.

7. Slaton

8. Westbrook - note: If you take Westy this high, you MUST draft McCoy as a handcuff. So you are actually investing in 2 players, but the PPR stats may well be worth it.

9. Forte

10. Gore

11. S Jax - taking him is like walking a high wire without a net. If he goes down - which is likely - so does your season.

12. LT - does he still have it in the tank? IMO not worth taking any higher.

Round 2

13. A QB that starts with a "B".

14. The other QB that starts with a "B". note - Big Ben is the wrong answer.

15. S Smith

16. Wayne

17. Chris Johnson

18. De Williams

19. Portis - you must get Betts, but he can be taken later in the draft.

20. Boldin

21. R White

22. Jennings

23. Bowe - note: these 4 WRs are all within 5 points of each other in my projected production for PPR

24. Peyton

Round 3

25. K Smith

26. Turner - his carries will be reduced and he has no receiving PPR value.

27. Welker

28. Colston

29. Thomas

30. DMac

31. R Bush - he would be higher if he could last a full season, but lets be real!

32. Grant

33. Jacobs - again, durability concersn and lacks receiving stats for PPR

34. Moreno

35. Rodgers

36. Warner

Round 4

37. T.O.

38. Ocho Cinco

39. Marshall

40. V Jackson

41. Witten

42. T Gonzalez

43. R. Brown - High risk takes him down to the lower half of round 4

44. Barber - I'm sold on the Dallas commitment to the run; I'm just not sold on Barber. IMO the guys to get are Choice and Felix Jones later in the draft.

45. Housh

46. McNabb

47. Rivers

48. Evans

 

Your comments and criticisms are welcome. I've worked and re-worked these 4 rounds and I think I can defend in my own mind the placement of these guys for PPR based on my projections and my risk assessment.

 

I've done a "first pass" at rounds 5 through 10. If anyone cares to see them, I might post them after re-working them this coming weekend.

[joefry 0]

That is a pretty interesting mock for ppr. Myself, I don't know where I am picking, but I am strongly considering going wr/wr this year. The Rbs are too much of a crapshoot.

[stonewall 647]

Welcome back Madd. It is good to see you again.....especially now that draft crunch-time is upon most of us. Missed your insight.

 

Interesting list. Personally, I like Pierre better than K.Smith this season.....particularly with Bush's knee again a big question. Also, I take D. Williams in the 1st round (late) ahead of LT (early second). Westy seems a bit high, but it is hard to argue his placing in a PPR. Lastly, I switch Chris Johnson and Slaton. I know that we are both high on Slaton, and he will have a great year, but Johnsons upside just seems a bit greater......both will lose carries at the goal line imo, but Chris is a step faster than Slaton and a bit more illusive. I would love to have either on my team, but Slaton in the mid-1st seems like a bit of a reach. Also....you seem sold on Moreno (3rd round). Doesnt the countless RB's on Denvers roster (including our old buddy Hillis) scare you off of burning an early pick on him? What about Beanie? He only has Lowtower to compete with on a high-scoring offense.

 

As far as TE's go, I have Gates and Clark ahead of Gonzo, because of their age (or lack of) and familiarity with their system.

 

Great list. Thanks for posting it. Now, can we have your non ppr first four rounds?

[madd futher mucker 36]

That is a pretty interesting mock for ppr. Myself, I don't know where I am picking, but I am strongly considering going wr/wr this year. The Rbs are too much of a crapshoot.

 

Yes RBs are a crapshoot, and WRs not quite as much, but I'm not a proponent of any position/position strategy for the 1st 2-3 rounds. I believe in making raw projections and then factoring in risk to arrive at a sensible draft board. Once I have that, I almost always take the highest player on the board for the 1st 2 rounds. After round two, I start to consider positional balance between RBs and receivers - but only if I don't have to move to a lower value tier to achieve positional balance.

 

I use the "value tier" approach almost exclusively when drafting QBs and TEs. For instance, Brees, Brady, Peyton, Rodgers and Warner are in the same value tier (all within 20 total projected fantasy points of each other). I'm only going to draft Brees or Brady if they fall to me exactly as the top rated player when I draft in the 2nd round. I'm likely to target Rodgers in the 4th round (although they project about the same, Warner is a higher injury risk.) but I won't "reach" for them. There is still good value to be had at QB in the lower value tiers.

[Gepetto 1,454]

Colston and Brandon Marshall seem lower than what I expect out of players of there caliber in their offenses.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Colston and Brandon Marshall seem lower than what I expect out of players of there caliber in their offenses.

 

Yes...that is how the numbers crunched out. The NO offense has so many weapons that Colston isn't quite up to the "elite" WR tier. As for Marshall, I "risked" his raw projection down a bit due to the uncertainty of the offense under McDaniels.

If you believe that he is going to be what he was with Cutler and Shanahan, you could elevate him, but I'm not sold.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Welcome back Madd. It is good to see you again.....especially now that draft crunch-time is upon most of us. Missed your insight.

 

As far as TE's go, I have Gates and Clark ahead of Gonzo, because of their age (or lack of) and familiarity with their system.

 

Great list. Thanks for posting it. Now, can we have your non ppr first four rounds?

 

Thanks - i couldn't stay away. Witten, and Gonzo are PPR monsters. I expect both to have about 90 receptions. Gates and Dallas Clark don't project nearly as high in PPR. I have them in a tier with Daniels and Olsen at 70-75 recepts.

 

Sorry -once I complete my PPR projections, I don't bother converting my projections back to non-ppr because all my leagues are PPR. I'm just too lazy to subtract off the orojected receptions and re-do the list just to post it for others.

[WhiteWonder 2,927]

Didn't you leave the site?

 

all joking aside, this is a decent list/mock. The few problems I have with it are listed below in no particular order.

 

 

1. Vincent Jackson is too high. He has never caught 60 balls in his career.

 

2. Wes Welker is too low. He has 2 straight years of 100+ catches and getting Brady back should up his TD totals closer to the 8 he had in 2007.

 

3. Not quite sure how Westy warrants his rank but LT is 12th. If anything, I would reverse that. Both will be over 30 when the season starts and while LT had some dings last year, he didn't miss a game and has been much more durable over his career. Westy is starting out on the PUP and had ankle surgery in June.

 

4. To a lesser extent, I disagree with the 4 WR's that high. I understand the occasional Fitz or AJ pick but pass catching RB's that are also the main guys in the running game are at a premium in PPR leagues. If 4 WR's go in a row, I would love to be picking after them and have an earlier round 2 selection.

 

5. Forte at 9? Even if you think he slumps in his soph season, he qualifies as one of those workhorse backs who catches alot of passes. And with Cutler in the fold and less than stellar WR's in chigaco, I see Forte continuing to catch alot of balls.

 

6. I would have Ronnie Brown higher. Contract year, 18 months removed from his ACL injury and the main weapon on the ground, in the Wildcat and has Pennington (king of the dink and dunk) at QB.

[FeelingMN 273]

MBIII the 21st back taken? While I agree Felix and Choice are good values later in the draft, you cannot deny the fact that Barber will get a majority of the carries inside the 20, and should be fresh at the end of games. I think the guy cruises to 1100 total yards and 10+ scores. Tack on 30-35 receptions, and there is no way he lasts past the mid to late second.

[madd futher mucker 36]

MBIII the 21st back taken? While I agree Felix and Choice are good values later in the draft, you cannot deny the fact that Barber will get a majority of the carries inside the 20, and should be fresh at the end of games. I think the guy cruises to 1100 total yards and 10+ scores. Tack on 30-35 receptions, and there is no way he lasts past the mid to late second.

 

Choice looked better in the games he played - 5.1 YPC (against very tough defenses, i might add) than did Barber. I'm not sold on Barber being the "Bell Cow" RB here. I see Felix getting significant change of pace touches. I also think that Barber and Choice will split the "power back" duties about 55/45 - and only because Barber has 'seniority'. But I see a 3 headed monster here, rotating all 3 backs to keep them fresh and wearing down the defenses - and I don't project Barber to have more than 250 total touches. In fact, here's my breakdown:

 

Barber - 215 carries, 900 yds, 10 TDs; 30 recepts 240 yds, 1 TD = 210 FPs

Choice - 180 carries, 770 yds, 5 TDs; 25 recepts 200 yds 1 TD = 158 FPs

Felix - 95 carries, 550 yds, 4 TDs; 25 recepts, 240 yds, 1 TD, 1 return TD = 140 FPs (and even more if your league gives credit for return yardage)

(Romo and the receivers will get about 35 more carries, giving the team a total of over 500 rushes for just over 2300 total rushing yards. - I will admit that this may be just a tad on the low side, but not by much.)

 

As a comparison, 205 PPR fantasy points is less than what I have projected for Lee Evans (70 catches, 1120 yds, 5 TDs = 212 FPs). Evans was my last player projected in round 4. So if I really put Barber where I think he belongs, it would be just below Evans.

 

But you are right, Barber won't last til round 4, which means that he sure won't be on my team. Someone will draft Barber in round 2, and I'll be happy to let them. Could I be too pessimistic on my projections for Barber? Of course. But I also could be right about the split of carries in Dallas. My advice is assume I'm right about the workload split- or close to it - or draft Barber higher at your own risk.

[We Tigers 71]

Very nice breakdown, though I would have a hard time passing on Gore/Forte/Slaton in favor of those 4 first-round receivers. The amount of receptions each of them gets really raises their floors substantially in a PPR, and is likely to give me exactly what I want from a first-round back: a safe level of production with considerable opportunity to blow up. Part of this is because, although the consensus elite receivers would be luxuries in a PPR, I think a lot of the late second receivers offer a great shot at 85-90 catches and superstar numbers this year.

 

I like the gutsy call on Turner, too.

[Stewburtx8 67]

Round 1

1. MJD

2. ADP

3. A Johnson

4. R Moss

5. Fitz

6. Calvin - note: I have these 4 WRs in order of projected points but they are all in the same tier above other RBs.

7. Slaton

8. Westbrook - note: If you take Westy this high, you MUST draft McCoy as a handcuff. So you are actually investing in 2 players, but the PPR stats may well be worth it.

9. Forte

10. Gore

11. S Jax - taking him is like walking a high wire without a net. If he goes down - which is likely - so does your season.

12. LT - does he still have it in the tank? IMO not worth taking any higher.

Round 2

13. A QB that starts with a "B".

14. The other QB that starts with a "B". note - Big Ben is the wrong answer.

15. S Smith

16. Wayne

17. Chris Johnson

18. De Williams

19. Portis - you must get Betts, but he can be taken later in the draft.

20. Boldin

21. R White

22. Jennings

23. Bowe - note: these 4 WRs are all within 5 points of each other in my projected production for PPR

24. Peyton

Round 3

25. K Smith

26. Turner - his carries will be reduced and he has no receiving PPR value.

27. Welker

28. Colston

29. Thomas

30. DMac

31. R Bush - he would be higher if he could last a full season, but lets be real!

32. Grant

33. Jacobs - again, durability concersn and lacks receiving stats for PPR

34. Moreno

35. Rodgers

36. Warner

Round 4

37. T.O.

38. Ocho Cinco

39. Marshall

40. V Jackson

41. Witten

42. T Gonzalez

43. R. Brown - High risk takes him down to the lower half of round 4

44. Barber - I'm sold on the Dallas commitment to the run; I'm just not sold on Barber. IMO the guys to get are Choice and Felix Jones later in the draft.

45. Housh

46. McNabb

47. Rivers

48. Evans

 

Your comments and criticisms are welcome. I've worked and re-worked these 4 rounds and I think I can defend in my own mind the placement of these guys for PPR based on my projections and my risk assessment.

 

I've done a "first pass" at rounds 5 through 10. If anyone cares to see them, I might post them after re-working them this coming weekend.

 

 

Interesting list. I also don't agree with those 4 WR's going that high. As others have said, pass catching backs are at a premium in ppr leagues. I'd have guys like Forte, SJax, LT, Ch.Johnson, Slaton all ahead of most of those receivers. But to each his own. The receivers may score more points overall, but i think their is a bigger gap between the pass catching backs and the backs in the tier below them.

 

I also never would take a QB that high. PPR devalues QB's, so I don't like taking Brees or Brady or anyone in the early 2nd round.

 

I'd also be interested to know your projections on AP?? The guy will only catch 20 balls. He never finishes top 3 or barely top 5 in ppr leagues. Yet you have him at a solid #2 rank, then list 4 WR's, then list the rest of the pass catching backs. Personally I like some of those pass catching backs with 50+ catch ability over AP. Just interested to know where you stand on that.

 

Overall, nice list, and thank you for posting. Interesting to see others opinions.

[Ace08 11]

Good list madd...and I agree with the majority of your first 2 rounds. The only situation I would highlight is the Carolina Rb situation...there are rumblings Stewart may still be hurt which would DRAMATICALLY change my outlook on Deangelo and probably cause me to take him at #3 overall after ADP and Mojo. Other than that....I'm with you on the WR early thing. I did this last year and won 2 out of my 3 money leagues and finished 3rd in the other one. IMO RB-RB is a thing of the past. If I have the #3 pick in a PPR league this year and both ADP and Mojo are gone I'm definitely taking Andre Johnson with absolutely no hesitation.

 

I actually like several of the 3rd and 4th round RB's better than many of the 1st and 2nd rounders this year. I'm praying for a late pick in my drafts this year.

[Raider 84 29]

Very nice, slight changes depending on league scoring.

[Ramrock 18]

MjD at #1 is a joke

[ed_jones 0]

MjD at #1 is a joke

 

 

 

you did read the "PPR" part right?

 

 

AP is great, no doubt, but he has'nt been that great in PPR.More like a top 5 guy instead of the automatic #1 he is in Non-PPR.

[Ramrock 18]

Taylor's not around to take the pounding that MJD will face , Garrard will falter this year and MJD will be seeing alot of 8 in the box. I just don't think anyone of his stature will be able to take the punishment he will see as a full time starter. This is a huge buyer beware for me.

[TD Ryan2 316]

mfm,

 

second thread of yours I've read now.... really nice job.

 

I'll read the list a bit more to add some debate, but this is a nice, non-cookie-cutter list.

 

Forte could go right after MJD and AP.... Forte at #3 ain't crazy.

that's my only thought so far.

 

thanks.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Interesting list. I also don't agree with those 4 WR's going that high. As others have said, pass catching backs are at a premium in ppr leagues.

 

I'd also be interested to know your projections on AP?? The guy will only catch 20 balls. He never finishes top 3 or barely top 5 in ppr leagues. Yet you have him at a solid #2 rank, then list 4 WR's, then list the rest of the pass catching backs. Personally I like some of those pass catching backs with 50+ catch ability over AP. Just interested to know where you stand on that.

 

First - a little bit about my methodology: I actually do two projections, my most optimistic and my most pessimistic. Then I decide on an individual player basis which projections make the most sense. When there is a great disparity between the optimistic and the pessimistic projections, I always go closer to the pessimistic ones in the early rounds to minimize risk.

 

For the top 6 on this list, there is very little difference between my optimistic and my pessimistic. Rather than give you both projections, here is what I arrived at for the top 7 players in PPR fantasy points:

 

1. MJD - 1100 yds rushing, 55 recepts, 490 yds, 15 combined TDs = 304 TFPs

2. ADP - 1580 yds rushing, 27 recepts, 210 yds, 15 combined TDS = 296 TFPs

3. A Johnson - 100 recepts, 13200 yds, 9 TDs = 296 TFPs

4. R. Moss - 84 recepts. 1240 yds, 14 TDs = 292 TFPs

5. Fitz - 94 recepts, 1310 yds, 11 TDs = 290 TFPs

6. Calvin - 84 recepts, 1300 yds, 11 TDs = 280 TFPs

7. Slaton - 1310 rushing yds, 46 recepts, 340 yds, 11TDS = 277 TFPs

 

You may not agree with my projections, but they are about as realistic as I think I can get.

[ed_jones 0]

First - a little bit about my methodology: I actually do two projections, my most optimistic and my most pessimistic. Then I decide on an individual player basis which projections make the most sense. When there is a great disparity between the optimistic and the pessimistic projections, I always go closer to the pessimistic ones in the early rounds to minimize risk.

 

For the top 6 on this list, there is very little difference between my optimistic and my pessimistic. Rather than give you both projections, here is what I arrived at for the top 7 players in PPR fantasy points:

 

1. MJD - 1100 yds rushing, 55 recepts, 490 yds, 15 combined TDs = 304 TFPs

2. ADP - 1580 yds rushing, 27 recepts, 210 yds, 15 combined TDS = 296 TFPs

3. A Johnson - 100 recepts, 13200 yds, 9 TDs = 296 TFPs

4. R. Moss - 84 recepts. 1240 yds, 14 TDs = 292 TFPs

5. Fitz - 94 recepts, 1310 yds, 11 TDs = 290 TFPs

6. Calvin - 84 recepts, 1300 yds, 11 TDs = 280 TFPs

7. Slaton - 1310 rushing yds, 46 recepts, 340 yds, 11TDS = 277 TFPs

 

You may not agree with my projections, but they are abibt as realistic as I think I can get.

 

 

these do look pretty good. I think I'm gonna win it all with Andre Johnson this year, 13200 yards will net me ALOT of points, lol.

 

All joking aside, these all do look very realistic.Only one I think is abit of a stretch is Slaton, I have my doubts about him being that productive again but he certainly has a chance. Overall a very good list

[madd futher mucker 36]

Didn't you leave the site?

 

all joking aside, this is a decent list/mock.

 

Not quite sure how Westy warrants his rank but LT is 12th. If anything, I would reverse that. Both will be over 30 when the season starts and while LT had some dings last year, he didn't miss a game and has been much more durable over his career. Westy is starting out on the PUP and had ankle surgery in June.

 

I would have Ronnie Brown higher. Contract year, 18 months removed from his ACL injury and the main weapon on the ground, in the Wildcat and has Pennington (king of the dink and dunk) at QB.

 

Not gonna respond to all, but here are my answers to two of your comments. Please read my methodology and response about the 4 elite WRs in PPR. My response to both of your comments reflect my adjustments for risk aversion. I just don't want to overdraft a player that I see a huge disparity between my optimistic projections and my pessimistic ones.

 

Regarding Westy vs LT, I would hate to draft LT as high as my optimistic projection because there is a reasonable chance that his tank is almost empty and he will wear down later in the season, ie during your stretch run or in the fantasy playoffs. I do not ever again want to put myself in the position of drafting a player too early only to be holding an empty bag. If LT's tank goes to empty, his handcuff will almost surely be RBBC (likely Sproles and Gartrell Johnson) who will not give you normal LT numbers. But in Westbrook's case, I originally was going to go with my pessimistic projections, but Leshon McCoy has amazed everyone in the preseason so far, both with his running and especially with his blitz pick-up; he is FAR ahead of where I thought he would be. thus my comment about handcuffing him is a must, and therefore I moved Westy back up closer to my optimistic projections.

 

There are two distinctly different scenarios for Ronald Brown. The optimistic one has him in the top ten RBs. The pessimistic one is...well, pessimistic. I need not make a case for the optimistic one. But here is the 'dark' side that I decided to use for my projection:

 

Last year in Week 3, when the Dolphins unleashed the wildcat on the unsuspecting Patriots, Brown accounted for five touchdowns (one passing, four rushing), and everyone who drafted him thought they had gotten the steal of the century. They weren't dispelled of that idea when Brown showed he could still pound the ball like a workhorse the next game, piling up 125 yards and a TD on 24 carries in a win over San Diego. But Brown found the end zone only four more times in the final 12 games. He carried the ball more than 16 times exactly once, the same amount of times he had more than 15 fantasy points. Take away Brown's stats in the wildcat last year, and you basically have Jamal Lewis. Miami will be playing a first place schedule this year, a harsh contrast to the last place schedule they faced last year.

 

Further Ronnie Brown has NEVER carried the load at RB. In college he shared carries with Cadillac Williams; In the pros, his BEST season has been 1008 rushing yards in 2006. In his rookie year, he played in 15 games for a toatl of just over 900 yards, and in 2008 in 16 games he had only 918. Yes, he has had a few amazing games in his NFL career, but there is nothing to convince me that he can carry the water this year at RB.

[We Tigers 71]

I rank Calvin a bit lower (around 80 rec/1240 yds/9 TDs), but your other 6 are extremely close to what I have projected for those guys, probably within 5% or so on all of them. I think our values probably deviate a bit at the next tier of receivers, which is why I still favor a couple more RBs in the first round before getting into the top receivers.

[WhiteWonder 2,927]

Not gonna respond to all, but here are my answers to two of your comments. Please read my methodology and response about the 4 elite WRs in PPR. My response to both of your comments reflect my adjustments for risk aversion. I just don't want to overdraft a player that I see a huge disparity between my optimistic projections and my pessimistic ones.

 

Regarding Westy vs LT, I would hate to draft LT as high as my optimistic projection because there is a reasonable chance that his tank is almost empty and he will wear down later in the season, ie during your stretch run or in the fantasy playoffs. I do not ever again want to put myself in the position of drafting a player too early only to be holding an empty bag. If LT's tank goes to empty, his handcuff will almost surely be RBBC (likely Sproles and Gartrell Johnson) who will not give you normal LT numbers. But in Westbrook's case, I originally was going to go with my pessimistic projections, but Leshon McCoy has amazed everyone in the preseason so far, both with his running and especially with his blitz pick-up; he is FAR ahead of where I thought he would be. thus my comment about handcuffing him is a must, and therefore I moved Westy back up closer to my optimistic projections.

 

There are two distinctly different scenarios for Ronald Brown. The optimistic one has him in the top ten RBs. The pessimistic one is...well, pessimistic. I need not make a case for the optimistic one. But here is the 'dark' side that I decided to use for my projection:

 

Last year in Week 3, when the Dolphins unleashed the wildcat on the unsuspecting Patriots, Brown accounted for five touchdowns (one passing, four rushing), and everyone who drafted him thought they had gotten the steal of the century. They weren't dispelled of that idea when Brown showed he could still pound the ball like a workhorse the next game, piling up 125 yards and a TD on 24 carries in a win over San Diego. But Brown found the end zone only four more times in the final 12 games. He carried the ball more than 16 times exactly once, the same amount of times he had more than 15 fantasy points. Take away Brown's stats in the wildcat last year, and you basically have Jamal Lewis. Miami will be playing a first place schedule this year, a harsh contrast to the last place schedule they faced last year.

 

Further Ronnie Brown has NEVER carried the load at RB. In college he shared carries with Cadillac Williams; In the pros, his BEST season has been 1008 rushing yards in 2006. In his rookie year, he played in 15 games for a toatl of just over 900 yards, and in 2008 in 16 games he had only 918. Yes, he has had a few amazing games in his NFL career, but there is nothing to convince me that he can carry the water this year at RB.

 

im still not getting the LT vs Westy thing... Every negative you listed for LT is also if not moreso a negative for Westy... plus as you mentioned McCoy seems ahead of schedule... I get the optimistic VS pessimistic projections but I guess taking everything about their situations into consideration, i do not agree with going more pessimistic in LT's direction but optimistic in Westys..... i do get what you say about the handcuff but I would prefer not to look at 2 selections as 1 player.

 

Ronnie I agree is a risk. but with being 18 months removed from his ACL injury, I am hoping he ends up more like pre injury Ronnie Brown of 07 when he was on pace to possibly be the top RB in the league. I hate being the "what if" guy, but in this case I think the fact that Ronnie looked pretty good last year only being that many months removed from injury is a good sign.

 

 

Regarding the WR's.. i like your projections.. I think they are slighty high for 1 or 2 of thoe guys but it doesnt change my view on their ranking. I simply view elite pass catching backs as being more valuable in this format, even if those WR's outscore them by 10-20 pts on the year. Unless its an all flex league, you have to consider positional dropoffs.

[Quickolas1 80]

Yes...that is how the numbers crunched out. The NO offense has so many weapons that Colston isn't quite up to the "elite" WR tier.

 

what do you project for colston? are you assuming he misses game(s)?

[madd futher mucker 36]

Thanks for your comments WhiteWonder. I'm happy to have made the decision to come back to the site. Being away for a while was a good thing. But this is the place I get to vent my fantasy theories. And there are many posters like yourself who give me great feedback and we can disagree without being too disagreeable. I've decided not to let the few get under my skin (not that I won't go on a good 'rant' from time to time ).

 

I kinda think we are both splitting hairs on the LT/Westy thing. Like I said, I originally had Westy lower, but it is really "pick your poison". LOL - I know whichever one I'd chose first is the one that will suck! But I'm so high on what the kid McCoy is doing in camp that by the time Westy goes down - which is when, not if - McCoy will step in and the stats from the Philly RB position won't miss a beat.

 

I actually think Ronnie will have an equal chance of having a great year - or somewhere in between. He was one that had the largest variance between my optimistic and my pessimistic projections, and being risk averse early, I assigned him my 'gloom numbers' - there are lots of good backs this year without taking on extra risk.

 

Thirdly we have a RB, WR, and TE flex in my only re-draft league and in my auction league. This makes for a couple interesting theories that I'm testing in mocks. First - I'm targeting Witten and a second premium TE like a Dallas Clark or a Greg Olsen (shh!). Not only won't I have to worry about the TE bye week problem, but I can play a 'two tight end set', get top notch numbers from the TE2 spot, and get the equivalent of solid WR2 numbers from Witten at my flex.

 

My second theory is that I've kinda devalued the 1st and 2nd tier RBs (but not the two 'elites'). In my mocks, I found two things so far: I almost always saw one of the last 1st tier guys slip down to me, or was able to pick up two quality 2nd tier RBs way down to round 5.

 

But there are a couple of trends I've observed in the last couple of years. Unless the WR has chronic knee or ankle problems, he's very likely to give me at least 14 games if not the whole season. RBs get injured with much higher frequency. You would think that this would make quality RBs even more valuable, but the reverse seems to be true. The NFL is loaded with talented RBs. When my main guy went down last year, I was able to patch together a Peyton Hillis, a Pierre Thomas, or a McClain (and there were others I can't think of right now) and not lose a beat last year. So I now try to assemble a team for maximum fantasy points and am not as concerned about RBs. The key is active waiver wire management and drafting enough depth at RB so as to cover two RB slots and never need to rely on RB for the flex.

 

Add the high RB injury rates, the depth of RB talent on most of the NFL rosters, all the RBBCs and even 3-headed monster situations, and I've concluded that at least in PPR leagues, the "Stud RB Theory" is being replaced by the "Stud WR theory".

They just average about 30 more points per slot and carry with them a lot less less risk.

[VaTerp 0]

Nice list. I agree with the reasoning behind it even if I dont agree with all of the outcomes.

 

I really only put a lot of effort into rankings for my main league and there is no way I would have the WRs ranked that high. (PPR but with other scoring for RBs and QBs as well as a flex). But again, I agree with the process here.

 

My pure PPR league is an auction and it will be interesting to see what the top WRs go for there. Im leaning toward spending big on WRs and trying to get value at other positions. With all of the question marks and depth at the RB position its definitely a year where WRs warrant earlier consideration than years past.

[WhiteWonder 2,927]

Madd, while I still value pass catching RB's over WR's in this format, I do agree with you that WR's are generally harder to come by later on. Like you said when RB's get injured, new guys step up for X amount of weeks at a time and become starting options. This is less true with WR's. Even in the event of injuries, unheralded WR's are less likely to make an impact than unheralded RB's most likely because a RB can often be the product of his offensive line.

 

Now with that said, I still think WR is the overall deeper position... I would much rather have LT/S.Smith in a PPR league than Andre Johnson/Brandon Jacobs because I feel like I can get better WR value later. That is just a matter of positional dropoffs. I feel more comfortable with WR's I can draft in later rounds than I do with RB's for the most part.

[Yippie Skippy 0]

1. MJD - 1100 yds rushing, 55 recepts, 490 yds, 15 combined TDs = 304 TFPs

2. ADP - 1580 yds rushing, 27 recepts, 210 yds, 15 combined TDS = 296 TFPs

3. A Johnson - 100 recepts, 13200 yds, 9 TDs = 296 TFPs

4. R. Moss - 84 recepts. 1240 yds, 14 TDs = 292 TFPs

5. Fitz - 94 recepts, 1310 yds, 11 TDs = 290 TFPs

6. Calvin - 84 recepts, 1300 yds, 11 TDs = 280 TFPs

7. Slaton - 1310 rushing yds, 46 recepts, 340 yds, 11TDS = 277 TFPs

 

You may not agree with my projections, but they are about as realistic as I think I can get.

 

History tells us that two or more WRs will get 12 or more TDs every season. I went back to 2001.

 

I am guessing here that you do not have another WR projected to get 12 TDs, but I brought it up because I commonly see this error in projections (IMO).

 

I'm looking forward to your next set of rounds.

[Stewburtx8 67]

Very nice list. When I first looked at this a few days ago I thought you were waaay too high on some of the Wide Receivers. Then yesterday i sat down and did my own projections and I ended up with those 4 WR's all in the top 10 in total points. I play in a league that uses a lot of flex positions and only forces you to start 1 RB, in which case I just want the RB/WR's that will score the most points.

 

My top 10 was this....MJD, Fitz, Andre Johnson, LT, Forte, Peterson, Moss, SJax, Ca.Johnson, Ch.Johnson.

The next 10 was....Slaton, Westbrook, S.Smith, Gore, Wayne, Barber, R.White, Jennings, Welker, Bowe

If i was to keep going it was Turner, Boldin, Portis, De.Williams, TJ Housh, TO, R.Bush, Colston, A.Bryant, Marshall

 

This just was my overall Flex Rankings based on total points using my projections. If i had to slot QB's in I'd have Brees and Brady in the mid to late 2nd round and Manning in the early to mid 3rd round.

 

After I doing this I realized that having a lot of receivers as high as you do seems to be about right. There are 5 or 6 elite pass catching backs, but after that I'd much rather go after the more reliable WR's in a ppr format. I never thought that out of my top 30 flex players that 16 of them would be WR's. Very interesting.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I added rounds 5 through 10. The further down the list you go the more subjective my projections become. Therefore, I do not attempt to project numbers after round 10. I do, however have a list of about 60 more players I am following closely in the pre-season, some of whom could easily make their way onto my final list. Again...This is a PPR list.

 

Round 5

49. D. Ward

50. Edwards

51. Evans

52. Holmes

53. S Moss

54. Royal

55. Gates

56. H Ward

57.De Jax

58. Cotchery

59. A Gonzanez

60.Coles

Round 6

61. Bryant

62. Driver

63. Roy Williams

64. Dal Clark

65. Olsen

66. R Rice

67. Parker

68. Addai

69. D. Brown

70. Wells

71. Benson

72. Stewart

Round 7

73. T Jones

74. L J

75. Romo

76. Cutler

77. Schaub

78. Ryan

79. Palmer

80. Cooley

81. Daniels

82. Winslow

83. Mason

84. Hester

Round 8

85. Berrian

86. K Walter

87. L Moore

88. Holt

89. Graham

90. Washington

91. Lewis

92. Bradshaw

93. F Jones

94. J Jones

95. McCoy

96. Sproles

Round 9

97. F Jackson

98. Norwood

99. Carlson

100. Z Miller

101. Keller

102. S Smith

103. Breaston

104. Avery

105. T Edwards

106. Orton

107. Garrard

108. Curtis

Round 10

109. L Robinson

110. Harvin

111. Camarillo

112. Ginn

113. Hasselbeck

114. Big Ben

115. Robiskie

116. Morgan

117. Muhammed

118. McGahee

119. Chris Henry

120. Choice

 

I would appreciate any comments you give me on these last 6 rounds. Or if you have any questions, ask away!

[WhiteWonder 2,927]

Evans and Holmes overvalued as guys who don't catch alot of passes and must rely more on the big play.

 

AGonz probably undervalued as the locked in number 2 WR for Manning.

 

Roy Williams and Derrick Mason both slightly undervalued. Williams as Romos top WR and Mason because of the PPR scoring. If healthy he should be good for 80.

 

Also I like Carlson a little more assuming a full year of Hass at QB so I would have him a little higher as well..

 

rest of things look pretty good.

[madd futher mucker 36]

That was quick, Wonder...I didn't have a chance to finish my edit and you had perused the list already.

 

Regarding Carlson - he, Zack Miller and Keller all have some chance of being a top 5 TE and all projected reasonably close, so they are in the same value tier just below Cooley, Daniels, and Winslow. I believe one of the three could fall to early/mid round 9. And they would be a real value in that round.

[WhiteWonder 2,927]

That was quick, Wonder...I didn't have a chance to finish my edit and you had perused the list already.

 

Regarding Carlson - he, Zack Miller and Keller all have some chance of being a top 5 TE and all projected reasonably close, so they are in the same value tier just below Cooley, Daniels, and Winslow. I believe one of the three could fall to early/mid round 9. And they would be a real value in that round.

 

I just gave it a quick glance. sorry for the fast response.

 

I value Carlson almost in a tier of his own after Daniels and Winslow but before Miller and Keller. The main reason is his supporting cast. I'll take the TE with the good, veteran QB and the best WR. I love what Keller can do but as a Jet fan I am tempering my expectations, even as a security blanket for Sanchez.