You're Sitting At 12, And You Draft Pierre Thomas

[Kent 228]

Do you get laughed at by your league, or are you a fantasy genius?

[KSB2424 3,148]

If you are that high on him, I would just wait until right after the draft and trade for him. He's prolly not gonna make it back to you in the 3rd round.

 

But 1.12 or early second is too early IMO. You could trade your 13th pick for Pierre PLUS a halfway decent guy right after the draft.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

depends on who your passing up at that point. and i guess it depends on how good you believe he'll do. i'm sure you've heard it said, if you really want a guy reach for him.

[jgcrawfish 232]

Do you get laughed at by your league, or are you a fantasy genius?

 

well, i started to call you an idiot...but he likely won't be there next time you get a pick. His ADP is around 30th, so it's possible, but not likely. i'm all for overpaying by a few picks/spots for a player I want/believe in. but overpaying by nearly 2 rounds is a steep price. Were I at your draft, I would likely yell "REACH!" and then make a mental note that damn that guy has some cojones.

 

edit: however, it depends on how informed and good your leaguemates are. i was looking and back in june Pierre was an early 4th round pick, now he's going mid 3rd round. if you play in a league where guys don't keep up or use magazines, it's very likely you could still wait until your 3rd/4th pick to get him.

[Kent 228]

If you are that high on him, I would just wait until right after the draft and trade for him.

 

That is too early IMO. You could trade your 13th pick for Pierre PLUS a halfway decent guy right after the draft.

 

Why is it too early? The knee jerk reaction is, its too early. But lets consider why.

 

Who are you're other likely options?

 

Portis, Jacobs, Barber, Ladainian, maybe Brian Westbrook.

 

Thomas isn't coming back to you. So that's your decision. Is it crazy or genius to grab Thomas and an Elite WR. Or take Thomas and one of those RBs.

 

Is it crazy to let Thomas go at this point?

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Were I at your draft, I would likely yell "REACH!" and then make a mental note that damn that guy has some cojones.

 

Were I at the draft with the both of you guys and you yelled out "REACH!", I'd probably follow by saying "tool" with my indoor voice.

 

If guys who are taking Slaton or Chris Johnson in this year's 1st round based on last year alone are laughing at you, they should really consider shutting their holes. It's 2009, not 2008.

[ed_jones 0]

too much of a reach IMO. If you really want Pierre then you would be better served to trade your Rd 2 (pick 13) and your Rd 3 (pick 36) to another guy for his 2 and 3. Somebody who has a middle of the pack or even better a late Rd 2 and his Rd 3.This way you still get your guy and you also move up a good bit in Rd 3.

[KSB2424 3,148]

Why is it too early? The knee jerk reaction is, its too early. But lets consider why.

 

Who are you're other likely options?

 

Portis, Jacobs, Barber, Ladainian, maybe Brian Westbrook.

 

Thomas isn't coming back to you. So that's your decision. Is it crazy or genius to grab Thomas and an Elite WR. Or take Thomas and one of those RBs.

 

Is it crazy to let Thomas go at this point?

You have to look at ADP when drafting. This keeps you from reaching. Like crawfish said, it's fine to reach a few spots or even a round. But right now, Thomas is a late second, probable third.

 

There is nothing 'wrong' with drafting Thomas. He very well might outperform LT2, Slaton, Gore, Portis, ect. However my point is that you are losing inherent value pre-season. I try to maximize value and you could draft a Portis or whomever at 12 then trade Portis/WR5 for Thomas/WR3. That is maximizing your value at the 12 spot.

[PackYourNut 47]

If you project him there, then who cares what anyone else thinks. Undoubtedly there will be some guy who will laugh at your pick. However, it only matters who laughs last.

[Kent 228]

Were I at the draft with the both of you guys and you yelled out "REACH!", I'd probably follow by saying "tool" with my indoor voice.

 

If guys who are taking Slaton or Chris Johnson in this year's 1st round based on last year alone are laughing at you, they should really consider shutting their holes. It's 2009, not 2008.

 

Thomas is getting the goaline carries too. He's really one of the very few 3 down backs left in the league. Bush is hurt and the running situation looks like its going to pick up right where it ended last year. Which is fantasy gold for Thomas owners.

 

I may make a few bets with owners in my league that Pierre finishes with more points than CJ and Slaton. HAHA.

[KSB2424 3,148]

I may think Aaron Rodgers is gonna lead the league in yards and TD's this year. But I don't draft him as the first overall QB. That would be dumb. I could draft Brady and trade Brady for Rodgers plus a Jerico Cotchery.

 

See my point. You gotta think big picture. Not just, I'm high on this guy so I draft him way early regardless. It might turn out fine, but you could've done better.

[ed_jones 0]

Thomas is getting the goaline carries too. He's really one of the very few 3 down backs left in the league. Bush is hurt and the running situation looks like its going to pick up right where it ended last year. Which is fantasy gold for Thomas owners.

 

I may make a few bets with owners in my league that Pierre finishes with more points than CJ and Slaton. HAHA.

 

 

Hey, I hope PT has a great year and is worth the 12th pick, I've got him as my #3 in my dynasty league so that would be awesome. I would just try and get some trade happening where you still get your guy but you also get a little more value.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

I try to maximize value and you could draft a Portis or whomever at 12 then trade Portis/WR5 for Thomas/WR3. That is maximizing your value at the 12 spot.

 

If you try to maximize value, why in the hell are you taking Portis at 1.12?

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

I may think Aaron Rodgers is gonna lead the league in yards and TD's this year. But I don't draft him as the first overall QB. That would be dumb. I could draft Brady and trade Brady for Rodgers plus a Jerico Cotchery.

 

See my point. You gotta think big picture. Not just, I'm high on this guy so I draft him way early regardless. It might turn out fine, but you could've done better.

 

wtf? We're not talking about him passing up Peterson for Pierre. That does not apply at all.

[KSB2424 3,148]

If you try to maximize value, why in the hell are you taking Portis at 1.12?

Geebus, that was just a guy that he threw out there as an example. Insert whomever (Slaton, Gore, Johnson, LT). It was a hypothetical for petes sake.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

too much of a reach IMO. If you really want Pierre then you would be better served to trade your Rd 2 (pick 13) and your Rd 3 (pick 36) to another guy for his 2 and 3. Somebody who has a middle of the pack or even better a late Rd 2 and his Rd 3.This way you still get your guy and you also move up a good bit in Rd 3.

 

QFT

[KSB2424 3,148]

wtf? We're not talking about him passing up Peterson for Pierre. That does not apply at all.

Do you focking understand what an analogy means?

 

The point (which is flying over your head) is that Pierre Thomas will more than likely not get drafted in his league until late second/early third. He can draft a Chris Johnson (or insert whomever) at 1.12 and 9 times out of 10 trade the player he takes at 1.12 for Thomas plus another solid player.

 

Try to keep up. TIA

[IronFistIFFL 0]

I may think Aaron Rodgers is gonna lead the league in yards and TD's this year. But I don't draft him as the first overall QB. That would be dumb. I could draft Brady and trade Brady for Rodgers plus a Jerico Cotchery.

 

See my point. You gotta think big picture. Not just, I'm high on this guy so I draft him way early regardless. It might turn out fine, but you could've done better.

 

For the most part, I agree with this logic. In Pierre's case though, (and assuming you play with some decent competition,) you should probably be aware that whoever drafts him is going to think he just got the steal of the draft.... so trading may not be the best route.

 

If I had my heart set on PT, I'd want to draft him as opposed to trying to haggle for him. If you feel safe dropping down a couple of picks -- do it, and get him closer to his ADP -- but if you're nervous that someone might get him ahead of you -- take him where you feel like you have to.

[jdon 28]

I would probably start chanting 'overrated!' or ask what you are going to do now that you've locked up the #2 rb in N.O.

 

advice: trade down...

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Do you focking understand what an analogy means?

 

The point (which is flying over your head) is that Pierre Thomas will more than likely not get drafted in his league until late second/early third. He can draft a Chris Johnson (or insert whomever) at 1.12 and 9 times out of 10 trade the player he takes at 1.12 for Thomas plus another solid player.

 

Try to keep up. TIA

 

I'm sorry, I don't draft my 1st rounder thinking about a trade I'm going to make a couple hours later and neither do my league mates. Who drafts their team only to make a trade right after the draft?

 

If I were him, I'd just draft the guys I projected to blow up.

 

I probably wouldn't take Pierre there, but I would draft for value and that means any position. I'd probably go Moss 1.12 and Brady 2.1 but I'm crazy.

[Kent 228]

Do you focking understand what an analogy means?

 

The point (which is flying over your head) is that Pierre Thomas will more than likely not get drafted in his league until late second/early third. He can draft a Chris Johnson (or insert whomever) at 1.12 and 9 times out of 10 trade the player he takes at 1.12 for Thomas plus another solid player.

 

Try to keep up. TIA

 

We all understand analogies. That wasn't a very good one is all he was saying. It wasn't very close. No offense.

 

CJ isn't going to be there at 12. The guys I listed earlier probably will. And Thomas isn't coming back.

 

And lets examine this. Is Thomas really a reach at all at this point?

[KSB2424 3,148]

For the most part, I agree with this logic. In Pierre's case though, (and assuming you play with some decent competition,) you should probably be aware that whoever drafts him is going to think he just got the steal of the draft.... so trading may not be the best route.

 

If I had my heart set on PT, I'd want to draft him as opposed to trying to haggle for him. If you feel safe dropping down a couple of picks -- do it, and get him closer to his ADP -- but if you're nervous that someone might get him ahead of you -- take him where you feel like you have to.

Obviously I'm basing this on if he held his draft today. By the time Labor day rolls around Peirre Thomas will prolly gain some steam due to the Bush news and everybody is taking him late first/early second. Sohis question about about people laughing will be null and void.

 

However if he was drafting today, that would more than likely not be the case and he could get more value out of that spot.

[Kent 228]

And my league doesn't allow trading of draft spots on draft day. For league and draft position integrity.

 

We could make a trade after the draft, but in all the years of my long league, I don't think that's ever happened.

 

Can we examine this beyond trying to move draft positions and trades.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

And lets examine this. Is Thomas really a reach at all at this point?

 

By adp standards, yes, that would be a reach. By your own projections it probably isn't.

[Gladiators 1,987]

I didn't read all the responses, but I'd say follow his ADP over the next few weeks (depending on when your draft is).

 

FWIW, I got PT in the 11 spot in the 3rd round of the Rapid Draft that I did. Not sure if the "experts" aren't high on him, or if I just got lucky.

[KSB2424 3,148]

We all understand analogies. That wasn't a very good one is all he was saying. It wasn't very close. No offense.

 

CJ isn't going to be there at 12. The guys I listed earlier probably will. And Thomas isn't coming back.

 

And lets examine this. Is Thomas really a reach at all at this point?

Youre a focking moron. It was perfect analogy.

 

Brady's ADP: 2.06

Rodgers ADP: 4.03

 

Your pick ADP: 1.12

P.Thomas ADP: 3.07

 

They both have about 16-20 picks on average between them. It's a great focking analogy.

[Kent 228]

I didn't read all the responses, but I'd say follow his ADP over the next few weeks (depending on when your draft is).

 

FWIW, I got PT in the 11 spot in the 3rd round of the Rapid Draft that I did. Not sure if the "experts" aren't high on him, or if I just got lucky.

 

By the end of August, his ADP is going to be on the rise. Bush's knee is angry again. No Deuce.

 

People aren't going to sleep on that.

 

Pierre will become a less gutsy early pick every day.

[The Next Generation 10]

It's personal, so pick whomever you'd be happy with. Who cares if it's a reach or not, as long as you're happy w/the pick. FWIW, I kept PT last year in a 3-player keeper league (because he has a 17th round tag and I can keep him forever in that round). Looks like it may just pay-off for me this year!

[Kent 228]

Youre a focking moron. It was perfect analogy.

 

Brady's ADP: 2.06

Rodgers ADP: 4.03

 

Your pick ADP: 1.12

P.Thomas ADP: 3.07

 

They both have about 16-20 picks on average between them. It's a great focking analogy.

 

How is it a perfect analogy when you're comparing QBs to RBs. You start one QB, and two RBs. Skewes the analogy and their respective ADPs given you only need 1 QB. It would have more merit if you were comparing WRs ADP to RBs ADP. And your analogy suffers further when you mention Brady. Who's essentially QB 1.b to Brees 1.a. Those guys are the #1 prospects at their position, and you tie them to Rodgers and then throw out the ADP comparison. Not such a perfect analogy, but lets move on.

[surferskin 30]

Just make the pick you poosay. Do you really need to come here to talk yourself into it? Cuz you obviously didn't come here looking for any real advice.

[cyclone24 1,913]

Can i add a side question here.......

 

Im high on Pierre but got Barber in round 2. I also have Romo and Roy Williams (3 cowboys)

 

Would you pull a trade of Barber for Pierre??

[Kent 228]

Just make the pick you poosay. Do you really need to come here to talk yourself into it? Cuz you obviously didn't come here looking for any real advice.

 

No. I've gotten some good advice. Hence the thread.

 

And I don't know if I'd do it. I'm undecided and was interested in the discussion.

 

I don't know what pick I have. We determine draft order the day of the draft. Just examining fantasy scenarios on a fantasy board. Crazy idea, I know.

[Gladiators 1,987]

By the end of August, his ADP is going to be on the rise. Bush's knee is angry again. No Deuce.

 

People aren't going to sleep on that.

 

Pierre will become a less gutsy early pick every day.

 

I agree...He'll continue to climb over the next few weeks. I've always been an advocate of taking a guy early if you know he's not going to be there coming back. Your rankings should reflect his value (to you), so I'd say go ahead and draft him where you want him.

[Kent 228]

Can i add a side question here.......

 

Im high on Pierre but got Barber in round 2. I also have Romo and Roy Williams (3 cowboys)

 

Would you pull a trade of Barber for Pierre??

 

Well, I'm not high on Barber at all this year, so I'd be a big YES.

[9-Route 0]

most have hit it on the head, both the point and counterpoint.

 

the OP is talking about a 12th pick in a snake draft, not an auction: in the latter, he can get anyone, anywhere, anytime---in the former he simply cannot do so.

 

he is most likely correct---this particular player has high% chance not to be available at his next selection; thus, if he wants this player, he must take him at this current selection. some have mentioned circumventing the problem by trading later and what not. but again, that, too, may become problematic and opens another can of worms. all of these things are indirect solutions. the only direct solution is selecting him.

 

does it suck? probably. is it matching projections, adp's, etc ? probably not. in the end, those sometimes go out the window when u want to get the guys u like in a snake draft.

[jgcrawfish 232]

Were I at the draft with the both of you guys and you yelled out "REACH!", I'd probably follow by saying "tool" with my indoor voice.

 

If guys who are taking Slaton or Chris Johnson in this year's 1st round based on last year alone are laughing at you, they should really consider shutting their holes. It's 2009, not 2008.

 

the "reach" comment was a joke...testosterone guy stuff...you probably can't relate. it's not just about value on a player you believe in. let's take this out a bit. lets say the OP goes ahead and takes Pierre at the 12 spot, and any WR on the comeback. Let's also say that Steve Slayton was still on the board at that spot. He had the possibility of having Slayton AND Pierre Thomas and gave it up to overpay for Thomas and will likely end up with someone in the tier of Grant, Lynch, Bush or McFadden as his #2 now. Could any of those guys end up playing better than their draft spot? Sure. Reality is that on average nearly 60% of the top 10 RB will be different this year than last year. but some are safer bets than others. At this point, Slayton is unchallenged in his role, while nobody knows whether Bush will available and healthy to cut into Thomas production.

 

You don't win your league in the first few rounds, but you sure can lose it. Take the safer bets first and save your gambles for later when the reward is the same but the risk is mitigated.

[BMoney 0]

even if they yell at you....you can yell back at them in the 3rd round when someone drafts him again not realizing that he was already taken..

[The Next Generation 10]

I'm in a 14-team 1 player keeper with bonus for long TDs and TDs out of position. I can keep any of the following: M Turner, B Jacobs, CJ3, R Bush, K Warner (QB Tds are 6), or R Moss. Turner was the #2 RB last year, Moss the #2 WR, Warner, the #5 QB. Who am I going to keep? CJ3, that's who. Why? Man-crush and the upside to score some long rec TDs. I'm pretty sure everyone expects me to keep Turner. F it, I'm keeping the guy that I'm more excited to watch every week!! you should, too, IMO.

[Kent 228]

the "reach" comment was a joke...testosterone guy stuff...you probably can't relate. it's not just about value on a player you believe in. let's take this out a bit. lets say the OP goes ahead and takes Pierre at the 12 spot, and any WR on the comeback. Let's also say that Steve Slayton was still on the board at that spot. He had the possibility of having Slayton AND Pierre Thomas and gave it up to overpay for Thomas and will likely end up with someone in the tier of Grant, Lynch, Bush or McFadden as his #2 now. Could any of those guys end up playing better than their draft spot? Sure. Reality is that on average nearly 60% of the top 10 RB will be different this year than last year. but some are safer bets than others. At this point, Slayton is unchallenged in his role, while nobody knows whether Bush will available and healthy to cut into Thomas production.

 

You don't win your league in the first few rounds, but you sure can lose it. Take the safer bets first and save your gambles for later when the reward is the same but the risk is mitigated.

 

Slaton won't be there at 12.

 

In the unlikely event Slaton is there you could take Thomas and Slaton and have potential boom production from your RBs.

 

But again, there is a slim to no chance Slaton makes it to 12. And if Slaton is there, I'd be thrilled to take him at 12. But that's a pipe dream.

[Kent 228]

even if they yell at you....you can yell back at them in the 3rd round when someone drafts him again not realizing that he was already taken..

 

HAHAHA.