You're Sitting At 12, And You Draft Pierre Thomas

[jgcrawfish 232]

Wow that's horrible. You're going to lose. Sorry.

 

hey, at least mine isn't like everybody elses..and again, Mr Literal, I didn't say that's how I'd draft it.

[enis_44 0]

I love PT, but wouldn't take him at 1.12. Sometimes in a snake, you just gotta realize that there are plenty of players that you don't have a shot at. (especially when you draft at the corners) Your best bet to get PT and also maximize value is to trade draft picks before the draft. If that is not allowed, then you might be hosed, because I agree that it is really hard to trade for players after the draft but before the season starts. At that point, most owners like their team and want to see how their guys pan out.

 

One more thought. PT isn't the only guy who's gonna outperform his ADP. Take a solid choice with 1.12 and then concentrate on other sleepers who might fall in your window later on in the draft. PT isn't the single golden ticket to FFB2009.

[surferskin 30]

I love PT, but wouldn't take him at 1.12. Sometimes in a snake, you just gotta realize that there are plenty of players that you don't have a shot at. (especially when you draft at the corners) Your best bet to get PT and also maximize value is to trade draft picks before the draft. If that is not allowed, then you might be hosed, because I agree that it is really hard to trade for players after the draft but before the season starts. At that point, most owners like their team and want to see how their guys pan out.

 

One more thought. PT isn't the only guy who's gonna outperform his ADP. Take a solid choice with 1.12 and then concentrate on other sleepers who might fall in your window later on in the draft. PT isn't the single golden ticket to FFB2009.

[jman316 0]

SO what I'm gathering is that I SHOULD keep him with my 14th round pick.

 

Thanks fellas!

sarcasm off

[jgcrawfish 232]

I love PT, but wouldn't take him at 1.12. Sometimes in a snake, you just gotta realize that there are plenty of players that you don't have a shot at. (especially when you draft at the corners) Your best bet to get PT and also maximize value is to trade draft picks before the draft. If that is not allowed, then you might be hosed, because I agree that it is really hard to trade for players after the draft but before the season starts. At that point, most owners like their team and want to see how their guys pan out.

 

One more thought. PT isn't the only guy who's gonna outperform his ADP. Take a solid choice with 1.12 and then concentrate on other sleepers who might fall in your window later on in the draft. PT isn't the single golden ticket to FFB2009.

 

well said.

[sanders 0]

My problem is that I have to choose 1 of Chris Johnson (will cost a 6th round), Ryan Grant (will cost a 14th round), and Pierre Thomas (will cost a 16th round).

 

We can keep 1 guy drafted in the 5th round or later and you can keep him year to year but he costs you a pick 2 rounds earlier each year you keep him.

 

I'm really going to need to see some preseason before I can decide but the edge right now I think goes to Ryan Grant.

[Kent 228]

I love PT, but wouldn't take him at 1.12. Sometimes in a snake, you just gotta realize that there are plenty of players that you don't have a shot at. (especially when you draft at the corners) Your best bet to get PT and also maximize value is to trade draft picks before the draft. If that is not allowed, then you might be hosed, because I agree that it is really hard to trade for players after the draft but before the season starts. At that point, most owners like their team and want to see how their guys pan out.

 

One more thought. PT isn't the only guy who's gonna outperform his ADP. Take a solid choice with 1.12 and then concentrate on other sleepers who might fall in your window later on in the draft. PT isn't the single golden ticket to FFB2009.

 

Why isn't PT a solid choice at 1.12?

[jgcrawfish 232]

Why isn't PT a solid choice at 1.12?

 

kent, take him already. if you really want the dude and believe he's a top 10 back that you won't have a shot at later, then take him and let us know how it turns out.

[Kent 228]

kent, take him already. if you really want the dude and believe he's a top 10 back that you won't have a shot at later, then take him and let us know how it turns out.

 

[Kent 228]

kent, take him already. if you really want the dude and believe he's a top 10 back that you won't have a shot at later, then take him and let us know how it turns out.

 

[BunnysBastatrds 2,441]

I'm not playing mind games, I pointing out how your justification for your "opinion" varies with the opinion of others. If you know something that other people don't, then believe it all. Don't believe where it serves you best. And it's no more black and white at the top than it is at the bottom. So in the interest of sharing...

 

1 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC

2 Steven Jackson STL

3 Matt Forte CHI

4 Adrian Peterson MIN

5 Steve Slaton HOU

6 Ryan Grant GB

7 Frank Gore SF

8 Michael Turner ATL

9 Ronnie Brown MIA

10 DeAngelo Williams CAR

11 LaDainian Tomlinson SD

12 Chris Johnson TEN

13 Pierre Thomas NO

14 Kevin Smith DET

15 Ray Rice BAL

16 Brandon Jacobs NYG

17 Clinton Portis WAS

18 Marion Barber DAL

19 Derrick Ward TB

20 Chris Wells ARI

21 Donald Brown IND

22 Brian Westbrook PHI

23 Willie Parker PIT

24 Jonathan Stewart CAR

 

That's a gut feeling on the top 24. I won't necessarily draft them like that...but that's how I think they'll end up.

 

 

I like this list. Compare what the mags had as their rankings last year and how they turned out. Not even close. This looks more realistic. I don't agree with all of them, but good list.

[Stewburtx8 67]

Why isn't PT a solid choice at 1.12?

 

 

Because when i did my projections I had him in the 1250 total yards and 9 TD range. In which case he is not a top 10 RB and more like in the 15-20 RB range. I'd also take WR's such as Fitz, AJ, Moss, and Calvin over him for sure, and maybe some others. But if you project him as a top 10 player then take him. While this topic has caused a lot of discussion, if you are not open to other ideas, then just pick the guy. Trading for him and another piece is the best option, BUT if your league doesn't trade, well then just take the guy already.

[The Next Generation 10]

SO what I'm gathering is that I SHOULD keep him with my 14th round pick.

 

Thanks fellas!

sarcasm off

 

I have him as a 17th round keeper.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I like this list. Compare what the mags had as their rankings last year and how they turned out. Not even close. This looks more realistic. I don't agree with all of them, but good list.

 

that was fairly off the top of my head. I favor backs who are 3 down guys with little competition. I also think last years crop of RB's is one of the best I've seen in a long time and if DeAngelo or Willie Parker get a bit dinged up, you'll see Johnson, Smith, Slaton, Rice, Mendenhall, Stewart and maybe even Felix Jones and McFadden all in the top 20 RB's. Great freaking class of RBs! Comparatively, I think this years RB crop is weak...that's really why there isn't one in the top 10. Although that also may be function of most of the RB talent falling this year a bit and getting drafted by teams that already had good RB situations with the exception of Moreno and Wells (McCoy behind Westbrook, Green behind Jones/Washington, Brown in timeshare with Addai). Best chances for a breakout rookie are Donald Brown, Moreno, McCoy, James Davis and Beanie.

[nordwave 2]

My problem is that I have to choose 1 of Chris Johnson (will cost a 6th round), Ryan Grant (will cost a 14th round), and Pierre Thomas (will cost a 16th round).

 

That's a nice problem to have.

What slot are you drafting from? Can you get CJ in the first round if you throw him back?

If not, keep CJ.

If so, flip a coin between Pierre and Grant.

[The Next Generation 10]

That's a nice problem to have.

What slot are you drafting from? Can you get CJ in the first round if you throw him back?

If not, keep CJ.

If so, flip a coin between Pierre and Grant.

 

Agree w/this unless you can always keep CJ3 as a 6th rounder. If so, you HAVE to keep him, regardless.

 

In my situation, where you get to keep players forever at their draft round, PT is a 17th round keeper (PPR league). I'm already keeping SJax (3rd) and CJ3 (4th), they were my no-brainers. I'm still trying to decide between PT (17th) and Colston (15th), but have been leaning toward PT lately.

[nordwave 2]

Agree w/this unless you can always keep CJ3 as a 6th rounder.

 

I think he said the keeper costs 2 rounds higher next year.

Thinking about this, I changed my answer. CJ in the 6th this year and again next year in the 4th - that's a no-brainer. Do it. He's their Eddie George II.

[Kent 228]

"Pierre Thomas, RB NO

News: The first sign of the Wildcat formation popped up in Saints camp Friday. RB Pierre Thomas received the direct snap as QB Drew Brees lined up at receiver. "We're just trying something out there," Thomas said. "They wanted to see how my quarterback skills were. I was thinking about a throwback to Drew to test him on his route running." As for Thomas, he said he's weighing between 220 to 223 pounds, which is about 10 to 15 pounds heavier than last year, and looks ready for a heavier load this season."

 

The man is going to outscore all the RBs getting drafted in the second round this year.

[Ray_T 753]

Do you get laughed at by your league, or are you a fantasy genius?

 

I think you get laughed at.

 

regardless of whether he is worth a first round pick or not, if you pick a guy 1-2 rounds too early, you will be laughed at.

[Dan6 0]

I realize we're making this harder than it has to be, but the fact of the matter is (if you can't trade picks) -- he won't be there at the end of the third round. So this is your only chance to get him. If you sincerely believe he will outscore the people who are left at that point, then take him. If he has a big year, no one will question it. If you pass on him, and he blows up, how will you feel?

[Ray_T 753]

I realize we're making this harder than it has to be, but the fact of the matter is (if you can't trade picks) -- he won't be there at the end of the third round. So this is your only chance to get him. If you sincerely believe he will outscore the people who are left at that point, then take him. If he has a big year, no one will question it. If you pass on him, and he blows up, how will you feel?

 

yeah, I think it is unlikely that he will fall to you in the third, but there is a chance it may happen (depending on how astute your league is)

 

Personally I wouldnt take him in round 1 under any circumstances. Reggie Bush is listed as the starter and to me that means dont take a chance with your first round pick. Even if Reggie Bush breaks his neck and will never play again.... I think there are better options out there. Guys like Ronnie Brown, Steve Slaton (if he is available) Grant (I"m not a fan but he puts up reasonable numbers) or DeAngelo, portis, or SJax are all options that may be available at pick #12. Many of these players will be gone, but I'd guess at least one of them will be available when your turn comes up and I recommend all the above RB's ahead of Pierre Thomas.

 

He is really a player I would expect to go in the mid to late 2nd round or early in the 3rd round. I am normally in favour of reaching for one player in every draft, but I recommed not reaching this far for a player in the first round of your draft. This is something you can do in round 3, 4, 5, or 6 when a blown pick wont likely ruin your draft.... but the first round pick is one you need to hit on every time if you expect to win your draft. Thomas may perform well enough to be a first round pick, but that would be his upside value. his downside value is that Bush starts, plays well, and doesnt get hurt for once, and suddenly your best hope is a committee approach for your player you selected in the first round.

 

I cannot recommend this.

 

Take your chances and hope he slips to you in round 3. I'd say the chances of this happening are 10-30% depending on the knowledge in your league... but at least at this point in the draft you know there is a decent chance he will out perform his draft position. I cant say the same for your first round pick at #12 overall.

[Kent 228]

yeah, I think it is unlikely that he will fall to you in the third, but there is a chance it may happen (depending on how astute your league is)

 

Personally I wouldnt take him in round 1 under any circumstances. Reggie Bush is listed as the starter and to me that means dont take a chance with your first round pick. Even if Reggie Bush breaks his neck and will never play again.... I think there are better options out there. Guys like Ronnie Brown, Steve Slaton (if he is available) Grant (I"m not a fan but he puts up reasonable numbers) or DeAngelo, portis, or SJax are all options that may be available at pick #12. Many of these players will be gone, but I'd guess at least one of them will be available when your turn comes up and I recommend all the above RB's ahead of Pierre Thomas.

 

He is really a player I would expect to go in the mid to late 2nd round or early in the 3rd round. I am normally in favour of reaching for one player in every draft, but I recommed not reaching this far for a player in the first round of your draft. This is something you can do in round 3, 4, 5, or 6 when a blown pick wont likely ruin your draft.... but the first round pick is one you need to hit on every time if you expect to win your draft. Thomas may perform well enough to be a first round pick, but that would be his upside value. his downside value is that Bush starts, plays well, and doesnt get hurt for once, and suddenly your best hope is a committee approach for your player you selected in the first round.

 

I cannot recommend this.

 

Take your chances and hope he slips to you in round 3. I'd say the chances of this happening are 10-30% depending on the knowledge in your league... but at least at this point in the draft you know there is a decent chance he will out perform his draft position. I cant say the same for your first round pick at #12 overall.

 

"Reggie Bush is listed as the starter..." Are you seriously using that argument?

 

Fred Taylor was listed as the starter in Jax last year, and who took him before MJD??? Indeed, how did that effect MJD's early selectionin the slightest. Listed as the starter...holy lol.

 

I stopped reading the rest of your post when you listed Ronnie Brown as a viable 1.12 in your opinion.

[Hoops 1]

This is an interesting thread. My 2 cents: use your 12th pick on someone else....maybe a top 3 receiver............ Approach the team with 2.8 or 2.9......and offer to draft a player of his/her choosing with your 2.1 pick in exchage for them drafting PT with their pick AND an agreement to swap draft positions in the 3rd round. Of course if PT is taken prior to their pick all bets are off and you get the player you drafted for them........seems like a minimal risk to have a great chance of getting your guy AND an early 3rd round pick.

[Darko M 0]

but the first round pick is one you need to hit on every time if you expect to win your draft.

 

That is not true.

[Darko M 0]

I'm not a huge fan of PT @ 1.12 but selections like this are what make the draft exciting and unpredictable.

 

A bold selection of PT @ 1.12 could stir up other owners to make some bold selections, especially if they really want a certain player. Your pick is going to force them to think "If I really want *insert their targeted player* I better jump on him early", which will result in players dropping out of their normal ADP. You basically set the tone of the draft with a pick like that.

[Spec7ral 6]

Just examining fantasy scenarios on a fantasy board. Crazy idea, I know.

LOL!

[Spec7ral 6]

When someone laughs at you, ask them what is so funny about drafting one of the four of five 3-down, 50 reception grabbing, goaline backs in the NFL. And then wait until their wife and kids come to pick them up, and punch them in the face.

 

OMFG I AM LOSING IT OVER HERE!!!!

[FlaHawker 24]

Best chances for a breakout rookie are Donald Brown, Moreno, McCoy, James Davis and Beanie.

Thanks Capt. Obvious

[Spec7ral 6]

I stopped reading the rest of your post when you listed Ronnie Brown as a viable 1.12 in your opinion.

 

 

I would like to thank all the posters in this thread for a thoroughly enjoyable hungover read. Absolutely great debates, laughed my ass off a bunch.

 

Personally, I agree with JG on most of the points he presented.

 

My thoughts (mostly re-iterating others)

 

1. If you want someone and have a good feeling about them, go for it. Especially if they are going to be THE featured back in your estimation and have a decent schedule.

 

2. None of the fantasy sports leagues I am in have people trading players on draft day. You just got the guy. If it's an auction, you set their price, you are probably happy with it. If it's a snake draft, you either reached for someone you liked, had someone fall in your lap, or got the bowl of porridge that was just right. People get huge steaming boners over the worst picks in the world because they have their rose tinted draft day glasses on. I don't see trading as a viable option, at least not in my league. It's a great theory, but won't come to fruition in many leagues, I would guess.

 

3. ADP is just there as a basic guideline, a tool as it were, for you to project where people will most likely be taking said players. I have a couple loose cannons in my league that draft with their heads up their culos. ADP means nothing when it's their turn to step up to the whiteboard. I can almost guarantee one of them takes Eli in the first 3 rounds due to his new contract. Why? ###### if I know, I'll just grab my beer and try not to put it through my nose as I look around the room and wait for someone to yell. ADP is there so that after you make your own list (I like some of the order on JG's) you know that you can wait a while before taking someone like a Grant or a Ronnie Brown, most likely, as they are just not being touted by all the FF geniuses out there (who are mostly all idiots regurgitating the same drivel from webby to webby and mag to mag. This contributing authors on this webby being an refreshing exception)

 

4. Ron Mexico for President.

 

Any ways great thread, a worthy read from start to finish. Commendable.

[Ray_T 753]

"Reggie Bush is listed as the starter..." Are you seriously using that argument?

 

Fred Taylor was listed as the starter in Jax last year, and who took him before MJD??? Indeed, how did that effect MJD's early selectionin the slightest. Listed as the starter...holy lol.

 

I stopped reading the rest of your post when you listed Ronnie Brown as a viable 1.12 in your opinion.

what can I say... you're not gonna win your pool.

 

While I do agree being listed as the starter isnt everything, but if you are not gonna be listed as a starter, then a committee is likely the best you will do.

 

and MJD was losing a lot of carries to Fragile fred last year, so you cannot deny that that meant something.

 

either way, I wont waste any more time arguing with someone who thinks Pierre Thomas is a first round pick, so good day to you sir.

[Ray_T 753]

That is not true.

 

I'm not saying it cant be done, but your chances of winning your pool drop by a lot if your first pick doesnt perform.

 

While you wont win your pool with your first round pick, you can sure make it easy for yourself to lose if you miss on it.

[Franknbeans 46]

Kent, do you wear a helmet most of the time?

[R8RMick 242]

Now Pierre Thomas is being utilized in the Wildcat...

 

http://www.beloblog.com//WWLTV_Blogs/eyeon...09/08/post.html

[Ray_T 753]

Now Pierre Thomas is being utilized in the Wildcat...

 

http://www.beloblog.com//WWLTV_Blogs/eyeon...09/08/post.html

the wildcat?

 

Really?

 

okay, maybe I'll take him in the first round of my draft. I know everyone will laugh at me but what the hey..... the wildcat will make all the difference.

[DandyRandy 0]

Kent is exactly correct on this.I'm in a td heavy league(we have had this league for 16 years)with some yardage.I won my league last year for the 5th time and the winner payout was $1400.00.(12 teams and entry fee was $250.00 per owner)P.Thomas was the man for me last year when he went off the last 8 weeks of the season.He's on the BEST offense in the nfl,3 down back(not many out there) playing for a contract and still fresh and young.What's not to like?I would take him at #12 over some of the players you guys talk about but i'm in a keeper league and kept him over M.Barber.You got to have balls in ff and don't always go by what the websites and mags say.To Kent,draft him at #12 and enjoy your season(i will!!!)

[Tacks 0]

If you want him, take him. Is your skin really that thin that you would pass on someone you want just because your afraid of being laughed at? In a 12 team league, he won't be there when you pick again. So... Either man up and pull the trigger or sit tight and draft who everyone else thinks you should draft at that spot.

[sgumm23 2]

The Gore Portis owner in my league has PThomas as well. Being a single keeper he says he is leaning toward keeping PT. I would imagine with his 6th pick PT would be on the board, but you never know.

[DandyRandy 0]

The Gore Portis owner in my league has PThomas as well. Being a single keeper he says he is leaning toward keeping PT. I would imagine with his 6th pick PT would be on the board, but you never know.

So will Gore and Portis!!!

[Gepetto 1,368]

Not sure how you can really believe Frenchy is that much better than say Ryan Grant, Derrick Ward, Addai, or Larry Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Thomas Jones, D. McFadden, or K. Moreno that get drafted 3.12 and later. PT could even last until 3.12 in your draft anyway. 1.12 / 2.01 is a great opportunity two grab to elite players and Pierre isn't one of 'em. I do like him though, don't get me wrong.

[Ray_T 753]

Not sure how you can really believe Frenchy is that much better than say Ryan Grant, Derrick Ward, Addai, or Larry Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Thomas Jones, D. McFadden, or K. Moreno that get drafted 3.12 and later. PT could even last until 3.12 in your draft anyway. 1.12 / 2.01 is a great opportunity two grab to elite players and Pierre isn't one of 'em. I do like him though, don't get me wrong.

Well, I agree. why take someone at 1.12 when there is a legitimate chance you can get him at 3.12.

 

but I guess this would be a 'know your league' issue.

 

if this guy has been in his league a number of years, he should be able to predict with some level of accuracy what kind of players his opponents will select.

 

Let's face it... there are guys in every league who will refuse to draft a rookie or an unproven player (as Pierre Thomas would be classified)

 

There are others who draft the same players from year to year.

 

so if you know your league reasonably well, and you think there is a good chance to get him in round 3, why wouldnt you go down that road?

 

to clarify (as I"m sure someone here will bring it up) I classify Pierre Thomas as unproven. the main reason is he has not played a full season as a starter.

 

it is one thing to come in as a replacement for a guy who was supposed to start when the opposing defense has game planned for someone else (in this case Bush). a player can even put up a few good games until teams learn how to shut you down. So until he has played a full 16 game grind (or close to it) and put up good numbers I will consider him to be unproven.

 

do I think he has the ability to be a starter? Yes.

will he be a starter? Maybe.

will he put up top 10 numbers as a starter? questionable.

 

as such, he should probably be considered around the third round. I know some people will take him in the second, some will get him in the fourth.... but the third round is where the guy has at least a decent chance of outperforming his draft position. (which is what you want)