You're Sitting At 12, And You Draft Pierre Thomas

[jerryskids 6,806]

I don't know what pick I have. We determine draft order the day of the draft.

That's kinda whack. Makes it hard to plan a strategy... congrats, you are 1.01, GOOOOO!!@#!@#

[Kent 228]

That's kinda whack. Makes it hard to plan a strategy... congrats, you are 1.01, GOOOOO!!@#!@#

 

That's the point of it. We like everyone to come prepared for everything. Its also a fun tradition of our draft. The unveiling of the draft order. Always good for a laugh and a cry from owners. HAHA.

 

And we basically do the unveiling, you get a minute to collect yourself and boom, GO!!!!!!!! I love it. Helps the owners who know what they're doing and hurts the morons. Justice.

[jgcrawfish 232]

If you try to maximize value, why in the hell are you taking Portis at 1.12?

 

um, because portis is about as consistent a back as there is.

 

Do you focking understand what an analogy means?

 

The point (which is flying over your head) is that Pierre Thomas will more than likely not get drafted in his league until late second/early third. He can draft a Chris Johnson (or insert whomever) at 1.12 and 9 times out of 10 trade the player he takes at 1.12 for Thomas plus another solid player.

 

Try to keep up. TIA

 

i agree here.

 

however, i can also see the other side of this coin. i place my own values on players, down to my own projections. The likelihood of guessing the guys that will end up in the top 10 is just that, a guess. we try to make logical guesses. but i'm pretty damned sure that nobody picked Slayton or Chris Johnson first round last year because "they knew they would finish there". But the guy who drafted Portis last year at around 12 then got Chris Johnson or Steve Slayton later did much better than the guy who would have. The point is, you might be able to pick a top 10 back by reaching a bit for him, but by going "too" early you're likely costing yourself a chance at another back with a solid chance of being there as well.

[FeelingMN 273]

That's kinda whack. Makes it hard to plan a strategy... congrats, you are 1.01, GOOOOO!!@#!@#

 

I just noticed your sig.

 

 

As far as the topic at hand, I don't know how you can feel so strongly about a player where you'd take them almost 20 picks higher than their ADP.....especially considering we haven't seen any football for 7 months.

 

I absolutely love Thomas this year, but wouldn't take him that high right now. If he looks really good in preseason, then this probably becmomes a moot point. But what if Reggie starts looking better? It will definitely have an impact on Pierre's draft status. This is a really fluid time in football, and you should avoid fixing your mind about anything.

 

I guess my point is to try to guard against becoming overly infatuated with any one player before we actually see that player perform in the preseason. Once we get some live action data, we'll be better able to confirm or dismiss our earlier instincts.

[jgcrawfish 232]

Slaton won't be there at 12.

 

In the unlikely event Slaton is there you could take Thomas and Slaton and have potential boom production from your RBs.

 

But again, there is a slim to no chance Slaton makes it to 12. And if Slaton is there, I'd be thrilled to take him at 12. But that's a pipe dream.

 

well, i picked slayton because his adp is 1.10, but you could plug in deangelo there, since he's a 1.12. in my mind, and the way i justify it, there is a big difference between them. i would much rather have slayton, even over deangelo and probably chris johnson, because he is THE man and on the field almost all the time. That being said, if Bush misses any significant time, I move Pierre Thomas almost into the same territory i hold slayton in...potential unchallenged 3 down back. those are hard to find, particularly 12 picks in. but honestly, it's about what you believe. the comment earlier about laughing last is appropriate, because to the winner go the spoils. if the saints pick up a back, that means bush is likely out for a bit and in my mind bumps Pierre up to a mid 2nd rounder...and taking at the turn from 1/2 would hardly qualify as a reach.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I just noticed your sig.

 

 

As far as the topic at hand, I don't know how you can feel so strongly about a player where you'd take them almost 20 picks higher than their ADP.....especially considering we haven't seen any football for 7 months.

 

I absolutely love Thomas this year, but wouldn't take him that high right now. If he looks really good in preseason, then this probably becmomes a moot point. But what if Reggie starts looking better? It will definitely have an impact on Pierre's draft status. This is a really fluid time in football, and you should avoid fixing your mind about anything.

 

I guess my point is to try to guard against becoming overly infatuated with any one player before we actually see that player perform in the preseason. Once we get some live action data, we'll be better able to confirm or dismiss our earlier instincts.

 

well, see, here's the catch. ADP is a "tool" to be used, but it's not law. The guys in your league may or may not know about ADP, and may or may not follow it. ADP is determined by experienced players AND idiots, and there's no way to filter it, it's just raw stats. There's one guy in my league who thinks like I do, and he consistently targets similar players. He was the dude who took Slayton late last year, about 4 picks before I was gonna get him. He's informed and goes with his gut, and is virtually tied with me for the best winning % in the league of 7 years. He'll be the one this year that does something like this, take Pierre about a round before anybody else even thought about it, and he'll be right. He screws me every year because I see a player I like and think, yeah, I've got two rounds based on his ADP before I have to think about getting him, and the guy in my league will grab him one round earlier, because he doesn't care about the ADP. But that usually happens later in the draft, and the gamble of taking a guy w/ a 3rd round ADP in the 1st is much higher.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Youre a focking moron. It was perfect analogy.

 

It's a great focking analogy.

 

Don't get all pissy at us just because your analogy sucks

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

the "reach" comment was a joke...testosterone guy stuff...you probably can't relate. it's not just about value on a player you believe in. let's take this out a bit. lets say the OP goes ahead and takes Pierre at the 12 spot, and any WR on the comeback. Let's also say that Steve Slayton was still on the board at that spot. He had the possibility of having Slayton AND Pierre Thomas and gave it up to overpay for Thomas and will likely end up with someone in the tier of Grant, Lynch, Bush or McFadden as his #2 now. Could any of those guys end up playing better than their draft spot? Sure. Reality is that on average nearly 60% of the top 10 RB will be different this year than last year. but some are safer bets than others. At this point, Slayton is unchallenged in his role, while nobody knows whether Bush will available and healthy to cut into Thomas production.

 

You don't win your league in the first few rounds, but you sure can lose it. Take the safer bets first and save your gambles for later when the reward is the same but the risk is mitigated.

 

lacks any and all testosterone. sounds more like hormones from a pimply faced teenager. you're right, i can't relate.

 

Pierre/Moss/Grant.......I'll take that if i'm picking at the end of the 1st in a 12 team. explosive with a lot of td potential there.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

um, because portis is about as consistent a back as there is.

 

u and i have seriously different phylosophies when picking at the end of the draft. i guess i'd rather swing for the fences rather than not swing at all. "safe/consistent" hasn't won sh!t for me in the past. portis is boring and i can hear his squeaky, battered joints when he runs.

[nzoner 937]

There's one guy in my league who thinks like I do, and he consistently targets similar players. He was the dude who took Slayton late last year, about 4 picks before I was gonna get him. He's informed and goes with his gut, and is virtually tied with me for the best winning % in the league of 7 years. He'll be the one this year that does something like this, take Pierre about a round before anybody else even thought about it, and he'll be right. He screws me every year because I see a player I like and think, yeah, I've got two rounds based on his ADP before I have to think about getting him, and the guy in my league will grab him one round earlier, because he doesn't care about the ADP. But that usually happens later in the draft, and the gamble of taking a guy w/ a 3rd round ADP in the 1st is much higher.

 

I'm in 2 leagues with the same guy and he and I are a lot like you two.Worst part is the last couple of years he's always gotten the earlier draft pick in the 2nd draft and always ends up focking me by taking a player I was high on and was able to nab in the first draft.

[jgcrawfish 232]

lacks all testosterone. sounds more like hormones from a pimply faced teenager. you're right, i can't relate.

 

Pierre/Moss/Grant.......I'll take that if i'm picking at the end of the 1st in a 12 team. explosive with a lot of td potential there.

 

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

[KSB2424 3,148]

Pierre/Moss/Grant.......I'll take that if i'm picking at the end of the 1st in a 12 team. explosive with a lot of td potential there.

But you could have Pierre plus a player/Moss/Grant if you picked DeAngelo Williams or Slaton or <insert whomever> at 1.12 and traded him.

 

It's savvy moves like what I mentioned that seperates the men from the boys. So you're high on Thomas? Great, any schmuck can reach and draft him a full round early. The savvy guy makes that percieved low ADP work for him and gets Pierre plus another quality player out of it.

 

I'm just trying to get you guys out of the kiddie pool, and come play in the deep end.

[jgcrawfish 232]

u and i have seriously different phylosophies when picking at the end of the draft. i guess i'd rather swing for the fences rather than not swing at all. "safe/consistent" hasn't won sh!t for me in the past. portis is boring and i can hear his squeaky, battered joints when he runs.

 

my gawd...you should change your name to "mr literal" or "socially inept" or something. i wouldn't pick Portis there either...but he was using as an example, which i guess you just don't get. by the same notion you likely wouldn't pick Tomlinson there either, despite the fact that he and Portis have been the models of consistency for years now. i don't really care about picking at the end of the draft, to me, it's the same as picking at the beginning, minus the early "stud". i don't mind swinging for the fences, i just do it with picks after about round 4 or 5. to each his own.

[surferskin 30]

lacks any and all testosterone. sounds more like hormones from a pimply faced teenager. you're right, i can't relate.

 

Pierre/Moss/Grant.......I'll take that if i'm picking at the end of the 1st in a 12 team. explosive with a lot of td potential there.

Your team is gonna suck ass.

[Gladiators 1,992]

But you could have Pierre plus a player/Moss/Grant if you picked DeAngelo Williams or Slaton or <insert whomever> at 1.12 and traded him.

 

It's savvy moves like what I mentioned that seperates the men from the boys. So you're high on Thomas? Great, any schmuck can reach and draft him a full round early. The savvy guy makes that percieved low ADP work for him and gets Pierre plus another quality player out of it.

 

I'm just trying to get you guys out of the kiddie pool, and come play in the deep end.

 

And if there's someone in the 11, 10, or 9 spot who grab him because they're just as high on him I highly doubt they're going to give up PT and their round 10 WR4 pick for DeAngelo or Slaton, and I'd be surprised to see Slaton there in the 12/13 spot anyway.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

I'm just trying to get you guys out of the kiddie pool, and come play in the deep end.

 

Good grief dude. It's the bottom of the 1st round we're talking about, not the top. Anything can happen with the crap down there. Your theories are perfect in this forum, but can be shot full of holes. Most guys would like to roll with what they drafted for more than 5 minutes before talking trades.....do you draft in an ADHD League or something? And like someone else said, the guy that takes Pierre may like him since he's with the Saints and tell you to drop dead. Then you've got a guy you didn't want and you're kicking yourself if Pierre does well.

 

Like I said before, I wouldn't do it but I can see why someone else would. The situation this guy is in could vault him into a top 5 RB.

[Kent 228]

But you could have Pierre plus a player/Moss/Grant if you picked DeAngelo Williams or Slaton or <insert whomever> at 1.12 and traded him.

 

It's savvy moves like what I mentioned that seperates the men from the boys. So you're high on Thomas? Great, any schmuck can reach and draft him a full round early. The savvy guy makes that percieved low ADP work for him and gets Pierre plus another quality player out of it.

 

I'm just trying to get you guys out of the kiddie pool, and come play in the deep end.

 

With trades. That stand a good chance of not coming to fruition.

 

Banking on trades going through is the essence of schmuck.

 

And are we sure its a reach at all? Who's got more upside between Portis/Jacobs/Barber/Thomas?

[KSB2424 3,148]

And if there's someone in the 11, 10, or 9 spot who grab him because they're just as high on him I highly doubt they're going to give up PT and their round 10 WR4 pick for DeAngelo or Slaton.

Then he was never gonna have him on his team anyway. How is that relevant? And if the draft was being held today, the chance of that is just as great as Pierre Thomas being availabale at 3.12 to him.

[jgcrawfish 232]

But you could have Pierre plus a player/Moss/Grant if you picked DeAngelo Williams or Slaton or <insert whomever> at 1.12 and traded him.

 

It's savvy moves like what I mentioned that seperates the men from the boys. So you're high on Thomas? Great, any schmuck can reach and draft him a full round early. The savvy guy makes that percieved low ADP work for him and gets Pierre plus another quality player out of it.

 

I'm just trying to get you guys out of the kiddie pool, and come play in the deep end.

 

this one also depends on your league. trades cost in our league, so guys are hesitant to do unless the "need" it, and before the season starts, well, nobody "needs" it. and if i'm the guy with Pierre and some dude comes up to me right after the draft and offers to trade for him, well, then my price is likely going up. when nobody wanted until I picked him, he was cheap. when somebody wants him after I picked him, well, I'm gonna expect you to pay for it.

 

nobody is going to win this debate. guys who rely on "experts" are essentially taking someone elses opinion as fact. reality is that those guys may be more informed, but they are just as lucky/unlucky as the rest of us. there wasn't a single expert out there who likely had guys like Slayton or Chris Johnson in their top 15, now all of them do...and some of them will be wrong, and some will be right. Go with what works best for you and your draft style.

[surferskin 30]

Good grief dude. It's the bottom of the 1st round we're talking about, not the top.

So it's cool to take 3rd round talent at the bottom of the first round but not the top?

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

my gawd...you should change your name to "mr literal" or "socially inept" or something. i wouldn't pick Portis there either...but he was using as an example, which i guess you just don't get. by the same notion you likely wouldn't pick Tomlinson there either, despite the fact that he and Portis have been the models of consistency for years now. i don't really care about picking at the end of the draft, to me, it's the same as picking at the beginning, minus the early "stud". i don't mind swinging for the fences, i just do it with picks after about round 4 or 5. to each his own.

 

you defended Portis. i would pick LT because Portis isn't in even close to the same offense as LT, isn't half the receiver LT is, and plays a tougher schedule by default since he hits NY, Washington, and Dallas 2 times apiece each year.

 

I'd like "Mr. Literal" please

[Kent 228]

my gawd...you should change your name to "mr literal" or "socially inept" or something. i wouldn't pick Portis there either...but he was using as an example, which i guess you just don't get. by the same notion you likely wouldn't pick Tomlinson there either, despite the fact that he and Portis have been the models of consistency for years now. i don't really care about picking at the end of the draft, to me, it's the same as picking at the beginning, minus the early "stud". i don't mind swinging for the fences, i just do it with picks after about round 4 or 5. to each his own.

 

Give me an example of swinging for the fences in round 4 or 5. By round 4 or 5, your chance at fence swinging is pretty much over.

[KSB2424 3,148]

And are we sure its a reach at all? Who's got more upside between Portis/Jacobs/Barber/Thomas?

What's your top 12 regardless of position look like?

 

Because the bolded is not gonna be your only talent pool to look at at 1.12. A DeAngleo or LT or Gore or Fitz or AJ or Moss will be available. It's not like you are deciding between Thomas/Portis/Jacobs.

[KSB2424 3,148]

Give me an example of swinging for the fences in round 4 or 5. By round 4 or 5, your chance at fence swinging is pretty much over.

Have you ever played fantasy football before?

[surferskin 30]

If you basing your whole pick on upside, why are you passing on Westbrook?

[Gladiators 1,992]

Then he was never gonna have him on his team anyway. How is that relevant? And if the draft was being held today, the chance of that is just as great as Pierre Thomas being availabale at 3.12 to him.

 

I'm not talking about in round one, which is why I used reverse order, 11, 10, or 9...If he takes DeAngelo or Slaton (if available) in the 12 or 13 spot just so he can use them as trade bait, he's probably not going to get PT from an owner in the 11, 10, or 9 spot who grabs him in the 2nd round because they're extremely high on him as well. If they're really high on PT, they're not going to give up PT and their 10th round WR4 pick for Slaton or DeAngelo.

 

And I doubt that round 10 WR4 pick means much, if anything to the OP anyway.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

this one also depends on your league. trades cost in our league, so guys are hesitant to do unless the "need" it, and before the season starts, well, nobody "needs" it. and if i'm the guy with Pierre and some dude comes up to me right after the draft and offers to trade for him, well, then my price is likely going up. when nobody wanted until I picked him, he was cheap. when somebody wants him after I picked him, well, I'm gonna expect you to pay for it.

 

nobody is going to win this debate. guys who rely on "experts" are essentially taking someone elses opinion as fact. reality is that those guys may be more informed, but they are just as lucky/unlucky as the rest of us. there wasn't a single expert out there who likely had guys like Slayton or Chris Johnson in their top 15, now all of them do...and some of them will be wrong, and some will be right. Go with what works best for you and your draft style.

 

This entire post is brilliant and right on point. I applaud you jg for thinking outside of the box.

[unckeyherb 2]

well, see, here's the catch. ADP is a "tool" to be used, but it's not law. The guys in your league may or may not know about ADP, and may or may not follow it. ADP is determined by experienced players AND idiots, and there's no way to filter it, it's just raw stats. There's one guy in my league who thinks like I do, and he consistently targets similar players. He was the dude who took Slayton late last year, about 4 picks before I was gonna get him. He's informed and goes with his gut, and is virtually tied with me for the best winning % in the league of 7 years. He'll be the one this year that does something like this, take Pierre about a round before anybody else even thought about it, and he'll be right. He screws me every year because I see a player I like and think, yeah, I've got two rounds based on his ADP before I have to think about getting him, and the guy in my league will grab him one round earlier, because he doesn't care about the ADP. But that usually happens later in the draft, and the gamble of taking a guy w/ a 3rd round ADP in the 1st is much higher.

this is correct. I use ADP to a point to get an idea of what range of players will be available at each pick, but at the end of the day I use my own analysis and a lot of gut feeling to draft. You can do pretty well drafting according to ADP. Unfortunately so can everyone else. You win championships by making the difficult picks that others won't. This includes reaching for that 'potntially great' player. If you project Pierre to finish in the top 10 RB's and you KNOW that he won't get back to you in the third, take him. Simple.

 

When someone laughs at you, ask them what is so funny about drafting one of the four of five 3-down, 50 reception grabbing, goaline backs in the NFL. And then wait until their wife and kids come to pick them up, and punch them in the face.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

So it's cool to take 3rd round talent at the bottom of the first round but not the top?

 

It is pretty cool if you believe he's a 1st round talent.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

When someone laughs at you, ask them what is so funny about drafting one of the four of five 3-down, 50 reception grabbing, goaline backs in the NFL. And then wait until their wife and kids come to pick them up, and punch them in the face.

[surferskin 30]

It is pretty cool if you believe he's a 1st round talent.

It's cooler when you get first round talent in the first, second and third rounds.

[mattcoz 3]

That's pretty high, but I think he's definitely 2nd round material and there's no way he'll be there at 36. So if you really want him, take him. The idea of trading for him later on is a good idea, but you obviously aren't guaranteed to be able to get him. I'm getting Forte with my first pick at #4, and I really want PT, but I'm not sure I want my top 2 RBs to have the same bye week. I may end up punting week 5 though, because so many players I'm targetting have that bye week, heh.

[KSB2424 3,148]

It's cooler when you get first round talent in the first, second and third rounds.

 

This really isn't that hard

[Kent 228]

Have you ever played fantasy football before?

 

Okay. Enlighten me. In the 4th round you're going to take what huge upside guy over a standard value safe pick?

 

In the 4th round, where is this massive upside guy that you're going for broke for? The term swing for the fences must connote a slightly different meaning for you than me.

[BunnysBastatrds 2,446]

Go with what your gut tells you. Pierre Thomas is going to be a stud this year. Look at his last six games last year-

 

CBS- Thomas had over 100 total yards in five of them with at least one touchdown in each game (nine total). His 2008 stats: 625 rush yards on 129 carries (4.8 avg.) with nine rush touchdowns and 284 yards on 31 catches (9.2 avg.) with another three scores through the air.

 

Every year I see the ADP posistion of players and every year they are wrong. Look at last years ADP and look at the stats when the season was over. Not even close. That's why MJD is now second this year, when he was twentyith last year. Matt Forte and Michael Turner are now in the top five on ADP when they were in twentys last year. The secret to this game is figuring out who will move up each year. I don't think it's a reach picking Thomas early. I think it's smart. I watched every Saints game last year and by the end of the season I knew he would start this year. He's playing with the best offense in the league. He has Drew Brees distributing the ball to Colston, Henderson, Moore, Shockey, Meachem(Who is in his third year and understands the offense finally and is a burner-Sleeper Alert), and Bush. That leaves Thomas to run the ball and also catch out of the backfield. I forget the actual number but the Saints Pass/Run Ratio was something like 60/40. That is not going to happen this year. We play the NFC East and the AFC East. And two games from each team in the NFC South. Payton is going to have balance things out. That means run more. That means more Thomas.

 

Why is it ok to be guy the guy to pass on Westbrook or Jackson, but not ok to reach for Thomas?

[nzoner 937]

nobody is going to win this debate. guys who rely on "experts" are essentially taking someone elses opinion as fact. reality is that those guys may be more informed, but they are just as lucky/unlucky as the rest of us. there wasn't a single expert out there who likely had guys like Slayton or Chris Johnson in their top 15, now all of them do...and some of them will be wrong, and some will be right. Go with what works best for you and your draft style.

 

 

This post is excellent.

[surferskin 30]

Why is it too early? The knee jerk reaction is, its too early. But lets consider why.

 

Who are you're other likely options?

 

Portis, Jacobs, Barber, Ladainian, maybe Brian Westbrook.

 

Thomas isn't coming back to you. So that's your decision. Is it crazy or genius to grab Thomas and an Elite WR. Or take Thomas and one of those RBs.

 

Is it crazy to let Thomas go at this point?

Let's go back to this post. If you're picking at 12, what's your next pick? Why are you certain he won't be available by your second round pick?

[KSB2424 3,148]

Okay. Enlighten me. In the 4th round you're going to take what huge upside guy over a standard value safe pick?

 

In the 4th round, where is this massive upside guy that you're going for broke for? The term swing for the fences must connote a slightly different meaning for you than me.

Why are you going for broke. Everybody has 'upside'. You're right, I'm not following you, because you're not making sense. Does a Donald Brown not have 'upside'? Does a Dominke Hixon not have 'upside'? Does a Ronnie Brown not have 'upside".

 

Listen, I wouldn't laugh at you picking Thomas at 1.12. I would just think to myself. "That's pretty high, he could have gotten more value picking somebody else and working out a trade, or something creative like that."

 

If you like Thomas that much then go ahead. Nobody knows, he might lead the league in rushing. Or he might not come close. What I'm saying is that you have him valued much higher than his ADP right now. That is an opportunity. What I'm saying is make that work for you. That's all.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

It's cooler when you get first round talent in the first, second and third rounds.

 

1st round talent for me is relative to my projections.

 

1st round talent for you is relative to your projections.