You're Sitting At 12, And You Draft Pierre Thomas

[Kent 228]

Go with what your gut tells you. Pierre Thomas is going to be a stud this year. Look at his last six games last year-

 

CBS- Thomas had over 100 total yards in five of them with at least one touchdown in each game (nine total). His 2008 stats: 625 rush yards on 129 carries (4.8 avg.) with nine rush touchdowns and 284 yards on 31 catches (9.2 avg.) with another three scores through the air.

 

Every year I see the ADP posistion of players and every year they are wrong. Look at last years ADP and look at the stats when the season was over. Not even close. That's why MJD is now second this year, when he was twentyith last year. Matt Forte and Michael Turner are now in the top five on ADP when they were in twentys last year. The secret to this game is figuring out who will move up each year. I don't think it's a reach picking Thomas early. I think it's smart. I watched every Saints game last year and by the end of the season I knew he would start this year. He's playing with the best offense in the league. He has Drew Brees distributing the ball to Colston, Henderson, Moore, Shockey, Meachem(Who is in his third year and understands the offense finally and is a burner-Sleeper Alert), and Bush. That leaves Thomas to run the ball and also catch out of the backfield. I forget the actual number but the Saints Pass/Run Ratio was something like 60/40. That is not going to happen this year. We play the NFC East and the AFC East. And two games from each team in the NFC South. Payton is going to have balance things out. That means run more. That means more Thomas.

 

Why is it ok to be guy the guy to pass on Westbrook or Jackson, but not ok to reach for Thomas?

 

I took Turner in the 3rd round last year. And got laughed at.

 

I was laughing my ass off week one when Turner ran for 200 plus yards and racked up TDs against Detroit.

 

The Saints home opener this year is against.....Detroit. HAHA. Weird.

[surferskin 30]

I took Turner in the 3rd round last year. And got laughed at.

 

I was laughing my ass off week one when Turner ran for 200 plus yards and racked up TDs against Detroit.

 

The Saints home opener this year is against.....Detroit. HAHA. Weird.

That's cute story but not sure how it relates. Turner was going in the 3rd in many leagues. If you'd have taken him in the first, it'd have been a reach. And WHY would have been a reach? Not because of the #'s he put up but because you could have got Barber, MJD AND Turner (round 1, 2 & 3). I know because that's what I did.

[Kent 228]

Why are you going for broke. Everybody has 'upside'. You're right, I'm not following you, because you're not making sense. Does a Donald Brown not have 'upside'? Does a Dominke Hixon not have 'upside'? Does a Ronnie Brown not have 'upside".

 

Listen, I wouldn't laugh at you picking Thomas at 1.12. I would just think to myself. "That's pretty high, he could have gotten more value picking somebody else and working out a trade, or something creative like that."

 

If you like Thomas that much then go ahead. Nobody knows, he might lead the league in rushing. Or he might not come close. What I'm saying is that you have him valued much higher than his ADP right now. That is an opportunity. What I'm saying is make that work for you. That's all.

 

I hear you. The conundrum is, you pass on Thomas at 12/13 in the snake draft, he's not coming back to you. And you likely have Portis or Jacobs...maybe Westbrook and his injuries. Hell, whoever you end up with...is that guy going to be better than Thomas this year.

 

I don't think its so cut and dry. I think Thomas could either be decent, or some scary version of Preist Holmes. Do I really want to watch the other back I drafted mull through the year with his standard stats, or do I want the guy that can go berserk with the 12th pick.

 

Anyway, this has been a fun discussion.

 

I haven't read any real hating on Thomas or love for the other options you'd take instead of him and be thrilled with. That may come.

[surferskin 30]

I think Thomas could either be decent, or some scary version of Preist Holmes.

Now I've heard it all.

[KSB2424 3,148]

I hear you. The conundrum is, you pass on Thomas at 12/13 in the snake draft, he's not coming back to you. And you likely have Portis or Jacobs...maybe Westbrook and his injuries. Hell, whoever you end up with...is that guy going to be better than Thomas this year.

 

I don't think its so cut and dry. I think Thomas could either be decent, or some scary version of Preist Holmes. Do I really want to watch the other back I drafted mull through the year with his standard stats, or do I want the guy that can go berserk with the 12th pick.

 

Anyway, this has been a fun discussion.

 

I haven't read any real hating on Thomas or love for the other options you'd take instead of him and be thrilled with. That may come.

You keep saying these guys over and over. Who is your top 12? This will help. TIA

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

That's cute story but not sure how it relates. Turner was going in the 3rd in many leagues. If you'd have taken him in the first, it'd have been a reach. And WHY would have been a reach? Not because of the #'s he put up but because you could have got Barber, MJD AND Turner (round 1, 2 & 3). I know because that's what I did.

 

old school!

 

 

gotta get my 3 rb's in the 1st 3 rounds!

[Dr. Octopus 0]

well, i started to call you an idiot...but he likely won't be there next time you get a pick. His ADP is around 30th, so it's possible, but not likely. i'm all for overpaying by a few picks/spots for a player I want/believe in. but overpaying by nearly 2 rounds is a steep price. Were I at your draft, I would likely yell "REACH!" and then make a mental note that damn that guy has some cojones.

 

Sometimes people like us that spend so much time on this hobby on message boards, etc. probably outhink ourselves to our detriment.

 

We're so concerned about ADP and getting good value that we don't end up with the players we want. If you really felt that Thomas was going to outproduce some one you "should" take there like Gore, Portis, Barber etc. are you really doing yourself any favors by grabbing one of those guys and then (potentially) missing out on Thomas.

 

Its an interesting dilemma.

[Kent 228]

You keep saying these guys over and over. Who is your top 12? This will help. TIA

 

My top 12 RB doesn't diverge greatly from most of the expert lists out there.

 

Pierre is the guy that diverges for me obviously.

 

The guys all around Pierre on many lists...are they really better? Do they really have the ceiling Thomas does? Is Pierre such a big risk?

 

And the guys on all these lists going right before him are Portis/Jacobs/Barber.

[KSB2424 3,148]

My top 12 RB doesn't diverge greatly from most of the expert lists out there.

 

Pierre is the guy that diverges for me obviously.

 

The guys all around Pierre on many lists...are they really better? Do they really have the ceiling Thomas does? Is Pierre such a big risk?

 

And the guys on all these lists going right before him are Portis/Jacobs/Barber.

1. AP

2. MJD

3. Forte

4. Turner

5. S - JAx

6. LT

7. Fitz

8. Chirs Johnson

9. AJ

10. Moss

11. Slaton

 

Those are the ADP of the first 11 picks. So you might want to add the likes of DeAngelo and Frank Gore to your list of availables.

[Kent 228]

1. AP

2. MJD

3. Forte

4. Turner

5. S - JAx

6. LT

7. Fitz

8. Chirs Johnson

9. AJ

10. Moss

11. Slaton

 

Those are the ADP of the first 11 picks. So you might want to add the likes of DeAngelo and Frank Gore to your list of availables.

 

Okay. So, Pierre over Gore I'd do no doubt about it. Pierre over Deangelo. I don't think Deangelo falls to 12th. Do you really believe Deangelo falls that far. AJ and Moss at 9 and 10. I don't know. Not in my draft.

[KSB2424 3,148]

Okay. So, Pierre over Gore I'd do no doubt about it. Pierre over Deangelo. I don't think Deangelo falls to 12th. Do you really believe Deangelo falls that far. AJ and Moss at 9 and 10. I don't know. Not in my draft.

If DeAngelo gets drafted then that means Slaton or Chris Johnson or Randy Moss falls to you.

 

What I'm saying is that you keep saying Who would you rather have? Thomas/Barber/Jacobs/Portis. What I'm trying to say is other players will be available to you besides those guys.

[Gladiators 1,987]

Okay. So, Pierre over Gore I'd do no doubt about it. Pierre over Deangelo. I don't think Deangelo falls to 12th. Do you really believe Deangelo falls that far. AJ and Moss at 9 and 10. I don't know. Not in my draft.

 

Well none of us know what will happen in your draft. Brees and Brady might go in Rd 1 in your draft...

[jgcrawfish 232]

Sometimes people like us that spend so much time on this hobby on message boards, etc. probably outhink ourselves to our detriment.

 

We're so concerned about ADP and getting good value that we don't end up with the players we want. If you really felt that Thomas was going to outproduce some one you "should" take there like Gore, Portis, Barber etc. are you really doing yourself any favors by grabbing one of those guys and then (potentially) missing out on Thomas.

 

Its an interesting dilemma.

 

yes, it is.

[jgcrawfish 232]

old school!

 

 

gotta get my 3 rb's in the 1st 3 rounds!

 

Jarvis, you're sitting #1...who you taking?

 

Kent, same with you, who you taking???

[Kent 228]

If DeAngelo gets drafted then that means Slaton or Chris Johnson or Randy Moss falls to you.

 

What I'm saying is that you keep saying Who would you rather have? Thomas/Barber/Jacobs/Portis. What I'm trying to say is other players will be available to you besides those guys.

 

AJ isn't a first rounder in my league. Not a PPR league. Slaton and CJ and Deangelo go before 12. No question about it.

 

The only first round WR going in my league is Fitz...maybe.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

But you could have Pierre plus a player/Moss/Grant if you picked DeAngelo Williams or Slaton or <insert whomever> at 1.12 and traded him.

 

It's savvy moves like what I mentioned that seperates the men from the boys. So you're high on Thomas? Great, any schmuck can reach and draft him a full round early. The savvy guy makes that percieved low ADP work for him and gets Pierre plus another quality player out of it.

 

I'm just trying to get you guys out of the kiddie pool, and come play in the deep end.

 

There's a few problems with this line of thought though:

 

1. Some leagues don't trade regularly or much at all

 

2. Directly after the draft most people think they drafted the best team and aren't willing to wheel and deal until they see their guys in action which leads to....

 

3. What if Pierre Thomas blows up in Week 1 for 150 yards and three TDs - then you'd have to over-pay for him - and what if he never looks back.

 

 

I certainly understand your point and agree to some extent I just think that sometimes a "gut call" isn't such a bad thing.

[KSB2424 3,148]

AJ isn't a first rounder in my league. Not a PPR league. Slaton and CJ and Deangelo go before 12. No question about it.

 

The only first round WR going in my league is Fitz...maybe.

Why don't you just list your top 13 then and make this easy. Sheesh.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

This would probably be my top 12 at the moment.

 

1. AP

2. MJD

3. LT

4. Turner

5. Forte

6. Moss

7. DeAngelo

8. Westbrook

9. Fitz

10. Slaton

11. Calvin Johnson

12. Chris Johnson

[Kent 228]

Jarvis, you're sitting #1...who you taking?

 

Kent, same with you, who you taking???

 

PIERRE THOMAS!

 

Probably AP. I'm not in a PPR league so he's kind of a no brainer. He's going to score more TDs this year. And his early schedule he's going to explode.

[jgcrawfish 232]

PIERRE THOMAS!

 

Probably AP. I'm not in a PPR league so he's kind of a no brainer. He's going to score more TDs this year. And his early schedule he's going to explode.

 

ok.

 

 

This would probably be my top 12 at the moment.

 

1. AP

2. MJD

3. LT

4. Turner

5. Forte

6. Moss

7. DeAngelo

8. Westbrook

9. Fitz

10. Slaton

11. Calvin Johnson

12. Chris Johnson

 

Ok. So at this point, it looks like you'd both take AP as the top pick. Can I ask why?

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

ok.

Ok. So at this point, it looks like you'd both take AP as the top pick. Can I ask why?

 

Yes, that is obvious since he's at the top of my list.

[KSB2424 3,148]

This would probably be my top 12 at the moment.

 

1. AP

2. MJD

3. LT

4. Turner

5. Forte

6. Moss

7. DeAngelo

8. Westbrook

9. Fitz

10. Slaton

11. Calvin Johnson

12. Chris Johnson

Okay so that means we are comparing Pierre Thomas for you to Steven Jackson and Frank Gore. Not Jacobs/Barber/Portis as far as the talent pool still available if (worst case scenario) your draft took you best available players.

[bull19007 0]

All of this depends on how your draft goes. Most expert mock drafts and most experts are now putting Thomas somewhere in middle of 3rd round. As for me, if Slaton is there, I would take Slaton and one the big 3 WR's who would be there (probably Moss, AJ, or CJ). As long as you're getting one of those WR's, getting Thomas at 13 is not that extreme of a reach. As I have said though, I prefer Slaton.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Ok. So at this point, it looks like you'd both take AP as the top pick. Can I ask why?

 

Peterson is big and fast, from what my eyes tell me he's the best RB in the NFL fantasy or reality. He's a solid goal line back and he can take it the distance from 80 yards out. He has a strong OL, a pretty solid defense, and plays in the NFC North where he does pretty well against those defenses. He's the total package and they may try to throw to him more this year as well.

 

He's the RB with the least questions imo and has the best opportunity to blow the competition away.

 

PS-I'm not giving a reason for all of my 12 choices so please don't ask.

[jgcrawfish 232]

Peterson is big and fast, from what my eyes tell me he's the best RB in the NFL fantasy or none fantasy. He's a solid goal line back and he can take it the distance. He has a strong OL, a pretty solid defense, and plays in the NFC North where he does pretty well against those defenses. He's the total package and they may try to throw to him more this year as well.

 

He's the RB with the least questions imo and has the best opportunity to blow the competition away.

 

PS-I'm not giving a reason for all of my 12 choices so please don't ask.

 

No, AP is good enough. Ok. Was Peterson not the same back last year, when he was in the mix with LT for the top overall pick? And yet despite being the same back, with the same skill set, in the same system, he did not finish as the top back. He's a 2-down back who doesn't catch passes and has blocking issues that keep him off the field on 3rd down, yet he has the least questions? He was thought to be the best back in the league last year with the highest upside but two backs like DeAngelo Williams and Michael Turner, neither of whom had proven much to that point in their career, both exceeded his statistics?

 

By my estimation, guys like MJD, Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Brian Westbrook, Frank Gore and Steven Jackson all have better opportunity to excel because they will be given more chances to do so. Yet, aside from MJD, there isn't one person who thinks that any of those guys have a chance to do so, when in reality ALL of them have a chance. But the same argument you for picking Thomas at the 12th spot works against you here, because there is no way you would leave Peterson sitting with your #1 pick and take Forte because EVERYBODY else believes AP will be better. The real value you'd leave behind is > the potential value you gain, particularly if you had the chance to take AP#1 AND get say Westbrook a bit later (a stretch, but possible).

 

The point is this...we all listen to other people. We all hear ESPN/FOX/CNN/FFTODAY/YADAYADAYADA talking heads say that AP has to be the first pick off the board because his upside is the highest. It influences the way we make our own rankings. We look at his stats from last year and hear them say "well, he'll get the same # of touches but because of the addition of Percy Harvin spreading the field, he'll have an opportunity to break off more long runs" and say "yeah, that means he'll be better than last year"...he he still wasn't the best back. Did you factor in that Vikes lost Matt Birk at center, the mainstay of their offensive line? Or that they have the turnover machine Sage Rosenfels likely at the helm? If you did, it's likely because somebody else told you that.

 

This thing we do is the great guessing game. We try to make educated guesses using all the resources available to us, but what we hear to formulate our opinion is often someone elses opinion. If you believe that Pierre Thomas will be a top 5 back, why not take him at #1 overall for that same reason?

[RamslovaMartzhata 3]

I say you only reach (in any circumstance) if you really are a fan of the player. Above all... fantasy football should be fun. So if you like PT (you probably had him last year at the end of the season or are a Saints fan) then by all means take him. I personally like to watch the Saints play football... it reminds me of the Greatest Show on Turf days... only they use two RB's to make up Marshall Faulk.

 

My story of when I really reached at a draft:

 

In August of 2006... I stood up when it was my turn to pick @ 1.8, removed a button down shirt to reveal my fat gut hanging out of a cut-off/half t-shirt I had on underneath. I then reached into my backpack... and proceeded to put on a brand new Reggie Bush New Orleans Saints jersey knowing full well it was as big of a reach as there ever was. But I enjoyed every minute of it cuz I am a huge USC/So Cal sports fan. And then when I went on to win a championship when Reggie started going off at the end of the season... well I was clearly a real man of genius that deserved to be saluted.

[Kent 228]

No, AP is good enough. Ok. Was Peterson not the same back last year, when he was in the mix with LT for the top overall pick? And yet despite being the same back, with the same skill set, in the same system, he did not finish as the top back. He's a 2-down back who doesn't catch passes and has blocking issues that keep him off the field on 3rd down, yet he has the least questions? He was thought to be the best back in the league last year with the highest upside but two backs like DeAngelo Williams and Michael Turner, neither of whom had proven much to that point in their career, both exceeded his statistics?

 

By my estimation, guys like MJD, Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Brian Westbrook, Frank Gore and Steven Jackson all have better opportunity to excel because they will be given more chances to do so. Yet, aside from MJD, there isn't one person who thinks that any of those guys have a chance to do so, when in reality ALL of them have a chance. But the same argument you for picking Thomas at the 12th spot works against you here, because there is no way you would leave Peterson sitting with your #1 pick and take Forte because EVERYBODY else believes AP will be better. The real value you'd leave behind is > the potential value you gain, particularly if you had the chance to take AP#1 AND get say Westbrook a bit later (a stretch, but possible).

 

The point is this...we all listen to other people. We all hear ESPN/FOX/CNN/FFTODAY/YADAYADAYADA talking heads say that AP has to be the first pick off the board because his upside is the highest. It influences the way we make our own rankings. We look at his stats from last year and hear them say "well, he'll get the same # of touches but because of the addition of Percy Harvin spreading the field, he'll have an opportunity to break off more long runs" and say "yeah, that means he'll be better than last year"...he he still wasn't the best back. Did you factor in that Vikes lost Matt Birk at center, the mainstay of their offensive line? Or that they have the turnover machine Sage Rosenfels likely at the helm? If you did, it's likely because somebody else told you that.

 

This thing we do is the great guessing game. We try to make educated guesses using all the resources available to us, but what we hear to formulate our opinion is often someone elses opinion. If you believe that Pierre Thomas will be a top 5 back, why not take him at #1 overall for that same reason?

 

AP has the ability to rush for 2,000 yards. Pierre does not. The Saints pass too much for Pierre to have AP's potential.

[jerryskids 6,797]

Interesting debate. A few comments:

- This is getting mired in specific players. IMO the discussion isn't if PT is a better pick than, say, Barber, it is if a low-mid 3rd round ADPer should be picked at the 1-2 turn.

- I am baffled by the inability of some of you to see KSB's point. Feel free to disagree with it of course, but at least acknowledge it.

- I understand the conundrum of low-trade leagues -- my main (keeper) league is like this; very few trades (which also cost $$$), and almost no action on draft day (although it is allowed). If I really, really felt that someone like Thomas would be a top-5 RB, I might take him there, but probably not.

- Because as I think has been said here, you can't win your league with the first pick, but you can lose it. There are reasons Thomas (or any player) is going later; in this case he is unproven, hasn't gone an entire season, NO is historically a pass-oriented team, Bush is another season into the system (pending injury update at this point), etc.

 

That being said, as others have pointed out, if you really think he is the shiznit, and don't see a decent likelihood of a trade like KSB suggested... go for it.

[jgcrawfish 232]

AP has the ability to rush for 2,000 yards. Pierre does not. The Saints pass too much for Pierre to have AP's potential.

 

funny you should mention that...the same thing was said last year that pumped up his draft status

 

AP wants 2000 yrds and MVP

 

What changed? He was the NFL leader in yrds and still wasn't the best FF RB.

 

Kent, all I'm saying is this:

 

- If you pass on someone like DeAngelo (RB9) at 12 and take Pierre Thomas (RB16) there and say Kevin Smith (RB18) at 36, and Pierre performs like a top 10 RB and Smith performs like his level (RB18) then lucky genius.

- If you take DeAngelo (RB9) at 12 and take Kevin Smith (RB18) at 36 and both perform as expected, you're a good drafter.

- If you pass on someone like DeAngelo (RB9) at 12 and take Pierre Thomas(RB16) there and say Kevin Smith (RB18) at 36, and both Pierre and Smith perform according their RB rankings (RB16 and RB18), you're dumbass who passed over DeAngelo.

- If you take DeAngelo (RB9) at 12 and somehow get Thomas (RB16) at 36, and both perform in the top 10, well then, there's a good chance you're a league champion.

 

ADP,Overall,Name,Position,Team,Times Drafted

1.01,1.4,Adrian Peterson,RB,MIN,452

1.02,2.5,Maurice Jones-Drew,RB,JAC,412

1.03,3.2,Michael Turner,RB,ATL,312

1.04,3.9,Matt Forte,RB,CHI,496

1.06,6.1,Steven Jackson,RB,STL,390

1.07,7.3,LaDainian Tomlinson,RB,SD,428

1.09,8.9,Chris Johnson,RB,TEN,429

1.10,10.0,Steve Slaton,RB,HOU,514

1.12,11.8,Deangelo Williams,RB,CAR,445

2.02,13.8,Frank Gore,RB,SF,478

2.05,16.9,Brian Westbrook,RB,PHI,410

2.05,17.0,Brandon Jacobs,RB,NYG,446

2.09,21.1,Clinton Portis,RB,WAS,464

2.12,23.8,Marion Barber,RB,DAL,456

3.05,28.6,Ronnie Brown,RB,MIA,407

3.07,31.0,Pierre Thomas,RB,NO,463

3.09,32.9,Ryan Grant,RB,GB,457

3.12,35.7,Kevin Smith,RB,DET,455

4.06,41.9,Marshawn Lynch,RB,BUF,388

4.06,42.3,Reggie Bush,RB,NO,400

4.10,45.6,Darren McFadden,RB,OAK,500

4.11,47.1,Knowshon Moreno,RB,DEN,408

4.12,48.4,Derrick Ward,RB,TB,489

5.05,53.3,Joseph Addai,RB,IND,390

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

No, AP is good enough. Ok. Was Peterson not the same back last year, when he was in the mix with LT for the top overall pick? And yet despite being the same back, with the same skill set, in the same system, he did not finish as the top back. He's a 2-down back who doesn't catch passes and has blocking issues that keep him off the field on 3rd down, yet he has the least questions? He was thought to be the best back in the league last year with the highest upside but two backs like DeAngelo Williams and Michael Turner, neither of whom had proven much to that point in their career, both exceeded his statistics?

 

By my estimation, guys like MJD, Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Brian Westbrook, Frank Gore and Steven Jackson all have better opportunity to excel because they will be given more chances to do so. Yet, aside from MJD, there isn't one person who thinks that any of those guys have a chance to do so, when in reality ALL of them have a chance. But the same argument you for picking Thomas at the 12th spot works against you here, because there is no way you would leave Peterson sitting with your #1 pick and take Forte because EVERYBODY else believes AP will be better. The real value you'd leave behind is > the potential value you gain, particularly if you had the chance to take AP#1 AND get say Westbrook a bit later (a stretch, but possible).

 

The point is this...we all listen to other people. We all hear ESPN/FOX/CNN/FFTODAY/YADAYADAYADA talking heads say that AP has to be the first pick off the board because his upside is the highest. It influences the way we make our own rankings. We look at his stats from last year and hear them say "well, he'll get the same # of touches but because of the addition of Percy Harvin spreading the field, he'll have an opportunity to break off more long runs" and say "yeah, that means he'll be better than last year"...he he still wasn't the best back. Did you factor in that Vikes lost Matt Birk at center, the mainstay of their offensive line? Or that they have the turnover machine Sage Rosenfels likely at the helm? If you did, it's likely because somebody else told you that.

 

This thing we do is the great guessing game. We try to make educated guesses using all the resources available to us, but what we hear to formulate our opinion is often someone elses opinion. If you believe that Pierre Thomas will be a top 5 back, why not take him at #1 overall for that same reason?

 

Oh Brother. You sure did set me up there guy. I'm powerless against your mind games

 

You just wasted a half hour or so on that novel. You'll go the extra mile I guess because you think you'll win something because of it.

 

Your estimations means squat to me. Of course I look at rankings as a base.....who's "Mr. Literal" here?

 

There's a difference between drafting at the more black and white top of the draft than there is at the gray bottom if you understand what I'm saying. My order speaks for itself. I'd rather take Randy Moss than DeAngelo because by my estimation, Moss is will outscore him.

 

I have no problem saying Pierre has potential to be top 5. I don't believe he has as good a shot as Peterson, but I do believe he's got a better shot than Sjax, Portis, Jacobs, Gore, etc.

[KSB2424 3,148]

don't see a decent likelihood of a trade like KSB suggested... go for it.

Yeah, if your league doesn't ever trade, or you see no possible way to get creative, and you love Thomas and have to have him, then by all means draft him 1.12.

 

I would just hate to waste the inherent opportunity to take advatage of the disparity between where Kent has Thomas ranked and his Average Draft Position.

[Gladiators 1,987]

Oh Brother. You sure did set me up there guy. I'm powerless against your mind games

 

You just wasted a half hour or so on that novel. You'll go the extra mile I guess because you think you'll win something because of it.

 

Your estimations means squat to me. Of course I look at rankings as a base.....who's "Mr. Literal" here?

 

There's a difference between drafting at the more black and white top of the draft than there is at the gray bottom if you understand what I'm saying. My order speaks for itself. I'd rather take Randy Moss than DeAngelo because by my estimation, Moss is will outscore him.

 

I have no problem saying Pierre has potential to be top 5. I don't believe he has as good a shot as Peterson, but I do believe he's got a better shot than Sjax, Portis, Jacobs, Gore, etc.

 

You should really look into value based drafting. Using your current approach, you'd probably want to take Brees, as he'll easily outscore both players you mentioned.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

You should really look into value based drafting. Using your current approach, you'd probably want to take Brees, as he'll easily outscore both players you mentioned.

 

No, because I believe the difference between Moss' potential and the potential of the 10th WR drafted is larger than the potential between Brees and the 10th QB drafted.

[Kent 228]

funny you should mention that...the same thing was said last year that pumped up his draft status

 

AP wants 2000 yrds and MVP

 

What changed? He was the NFL leader in yrds and still wasn't the best FF RB.

 

Kent, all I'm saying is this:

 

- If you pass on someone like DeAngelo (RB9) at 12 and take Pierre Thomas (RB16) there and say Kevin Smith (RB18) at 36, and Pierre performs like a top 10 RB and Smith performs like his level (RB18) then lucky genius.

- If you take DeAngelo (RB9) at 12 and take Kevin Smith (RB18) at 36 and both perform as expected, you're a good drafter.

- If you pass on someone like DeAngelo (RB9) at 12 and take Pierre Thomas(RB16) there and say Kevin Smith (RB18) at 36, and both Pierre and Smith perform according their RB rankings (RB16 and RB18), you're dumbass who passed over DeAngelo.

- If you take DeAngelo (RB9) at 12 and somehow get Thomas (RB16) at 36, and both perform in the top 10, well then, there's a good chance you're a league champion.

 

Nothing has changed because AP ran for the league rushing title. Had explosive long TD runs and goaline TDs and was given the ball a ton and led the league in rushing. He wasn't the league fantasy rusher last year? Which means he shouldn't be #1 this year? That's what you're implying. Really......are you serious?

 

At the beginning of the year you draft on the guy with the potential to score the most. Right now, its still AP IMO.

 

You're not getting Thomas at 36 in my league. I don't know of many who are passing on him for 35 picks. Moot point.

[Gladiators 1,987]

No, because I believe the difference between Moss' potential and the potential of the 10th WR drafted is larger than the potential between Brees and the 10th QB drafted.

 

But you're post is saying you would take Moss over DeAngelo becuase you believe he'll score more points than DeAngelo. That implies you're drafting based simply on who will score the most points.

[jgcrawfish 232]

Oh Brother. You sure did set me up there guy. I'm powerless against your mind games

 

You just wasted a half hour or so on that novel. You'll go the extra mile I guess because you think you'll win something because of it.

 

Your estimations means squat to me. Of course I look at rankings as a base.....who's "Mr. Literal" here?

 

There's a difference between drafting at the more black and white top of the draft than there is at the gray bottom if you understand what I'm saying. My order speaks for itself. I'd rather take Randy Moss than DeAngelo because by my estimation, Moss is will outscore him.

 

I have no problem saying Pierre has potential to be top 5. I don't believe he has as good a shot as Peterson, but I do believe he's got a better shot than Sjax, Portis, Jacobs, Gore, etc.

 

I'm not playing mind games, I pointing out how your justification for your "opinion" varies with the opinion of others. If you know something that other people don't, then believe it all. Don't believe where it serves you best. And it's no more black and white at the top than it is at the bottom. So in the interest of sharing...

 

1 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC

2 Steven Jackson STL

3 Matt Forte CHI

4 Adrian Peterson MIN

5 Steve Slaton HOU

6 Ryan Grant GB

7 Frank Gore SF

8 Michael Turner ATL

9 Ronnie Brown MIA

10 DeAngelo Williams CAR

11 LaDainian Tomlinson SD

12 Chris Johnson TEN

13 Pierre Thomas NO

14 Kevin Smith DET

15 Ray Rice BAL

16 Brandon Jacobs NYG

17 Clinton Portis WAS

18 Marion Barber DAL

19 Derrick Ward TB

20 Chris Wells ARI

21 Donald Brown IND

22 Brian Westbrook PHI

23 Willie Parker PIT

24 Jonathan Stewart CAR

 

That's a gut feeling on the top 24. I won't necessarily draft them like that...but that's how I think they'll end up.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

- If you pass on someone like DeAngelo (RB9) at 12 and take Pierre Thomas (RB16) there and say Kevin Smith (RB18) at 36, and Pierre performs like a top 10 RB and Smith performs like his level (RB18) then lucky genius.

- If you take DeAngelo (RB9) at 12 and take Kevin Smith (RB18) at 36 and both perform as expected, you're a good drafter.

- If you pass on someone like DeAngelo (RB9) at 12 and take Pierre Thomas(RB16) there and say Kevin Smith (RB18) at 36, and both Pierre and Smith perform according their RB rankings (RB16 and RB18), you're dumbass who passed over DeAngelo.

- If you take DeAngelo (RB9) at 12 and somehow get Thomas (RB16) at 36, and both perform in the top 10, well then, there's a good chance you're a league champion.

 

Where's the one about how you pick DeAngelo and then Kevin Smith and DeAngelo is a bust while Smith and Pierre play up to their ADP's?

 

"lucky genius"? - Call him that after the season and he'll laugh at you as you hand him your money. In other words, who gives a care?

 

How much of this little fantasy game do you think is skill, and how much is luck?

 

 

 

As soon as you think you've got all the answers you'll be humbled

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

But you're post is saying you would take Moss over DeAngelo becuase you believe he'll score more points than DeAngelo. That implies you're drafting based simply on who will score the most points.

 

Sorry for the imply.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

I'm not playing mind games, I pointing out how your justification for your "opinion" varies with the opinion of others. If you know something that other people don't, then believe it all. Don't believe where it serves you best. And it's no more black and white at the top than it is at the bottom. So in the interest of sharing...

 

1 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC

2 Steven Jackson STL

3 Matt Forte CHI

4 Adrian Peterson MIN

5 Steve Slaton HOU

6 Ryan Grant GB

7 Frank Gore SF

8 Michael Turner ATL

9 Ronnie Brown MIA

10 DeAngelo Williams CAR

11 LaDainian Tomlinson SD

12 Chris Johnson TEN

13 Pierre Thomas NO

14 Kevin Smith DET

15 Ray Rice BAL

16 Brandon Jacobs NYG

17 Clinton Portis WAS

18 Marion Barber DAL

19 Derrick Ward TB

20 Chris Wells ARI

21 Donald Brown IND

22 Brian Westbrook PHI

23 Willie Parker PIT

24 Jonathan Stewart CAR

 

That's a gut feeling on the top 24. I won't necessarily draft them like that...but that's how I think they'll end up.

 

Wow that's horrible. You're going to lose. Sorry.

[jgcrawfish 232]

Where's the one about how you pick DeAngelo and then Kevin Smith and DeAngelo is a bust while Smith and Pierre play up to their ADP's?

 

"lucky genius"? - Call him that after the season and he'll laugh at you as you hand him your money. In other words, who gives a care?

 

How much of this little fantasy game do you think is skill, and how much is luck?

 

As soon as you think you've got all the answers you'll be humbled

 

I'm not sold on DeAngelo...and honestly think that last year was a bit of a fluke. But his stats are undeniable. Stewart, who I feel is the superior talent, can't seem to not get hurt and and as long as he's on the sidelines then DeAngelo is on the field. More opportunity = more chance to succeed.

 

As far as your question on luck vs skill...i can't answer that. I'm inclined to say it's equal parts of both. Tell the people who drafted Brady last year that luck isn't involved. I drafted Turner in the early 4th in the league I won last year because i thought he was the best value for a #2RB on the board and I figured he would produce top 12 #'s, which made him a bargain as the 19th RB picked. Was luck that he was available and luckier still that he finished as the #2RB...BECAUSE THERE IS NO WAY ON GAWDS GREEN EARTH THAT ANYBODY COULD HAVE KNOWN THAT!!! IT'S ALL EDUCATED GUESSING.