**Round One Commentary**

[RLLD 3,455]

Has anyone reached out to nan

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Has anyone given a reach around to nan

 

[Fumbleweed 426]

He said he'd be checking in throughout the day...hopefully, he'll stop by soon.

[RLLD 3,455]

He said he'd be checking in throughout the day...hopefully, he'll stop by soon.

 

[remote controller 133]

Wasn't able to comment on my pick earlier, so here goes:

 

Chris Johnson scares the hell out of me. Just too much workload last year. Ray Rice has great potential, and I'd be tempted to use the first or second pick on him in a PPR.

 

AD's numbers will greatly depend on his ability to hold onto the damn ball. If he can't, expect to see more Gerhart. If he can, the sky's the limit.

 

I see MJD as the best combination of safety and upside in the top 4.

yep!

[Fumbleweed 426]

Gerhart.

 

Name dropper!!!

[Dan 59]

Haven't had much time to comment today thus far, but I'll try to do that now.

 

Wow...if you had told me that Chris Johnson would last until 1.04, I would have thought you were crazy. I guess people are scared of his contract stuff, but man what a talent he is. I would have taken him first.

 

I like the Turner pick. I know JScott wasn't sold on it, but in a draft in which we could trade picks, I would have gladly moved up to that spot to get him. I think he's going to have an excellent bounce-back year.

 

Mendenhall was too early for my taste. He's in a good situation, but he's done nothing so far that suggests he's worthy of a first round fantasy pick. Same for Fitzgerald...I think he's second round material with Leinart at the controls.

 

I know the QB pick by me shocked no one. I like Brees just slightly more than another QB I considered. Also thought about taking a RB at 1.11, but I think the guy I like best right now will still be available once NAn picks. We'll see.

 

A more interesting first round than years past. The first round usually goes as scripted. Not so much here. Good stuff.

 

I confess I was surprised that Chris Johnson lasted until 1.4, but not so much if people have the same misgivings as I had. He is NOT going to duplicate last year's numbers, but that's what his ranking is predicated on. AP has been consistent, and last year was actually a little down for him. I think he does better than last year, and frankly last year is probably a floor to work with. Chris Johnson? Who knows? There are other things there that could hamper him - more later on that. The contract? Not even a blip on my radar.

 

 

The QB in the first wasn't terribly surprising; if any QB belongs there, it's Brees. I liked the selection. A nice variety of talent in the first round, nice to get away from the samey-samey junk.

[KSB2424 3,083]

Chris Johnson is the real deal. He's been so since he first stepped on to a NFL football field. This is no flash in the pan. Last years workload doesn't scare me one bit. If he was 29 it would, but he's very young, doesn't take pounding hits, and is extremely dynamic. He doesn't have to duplicate last years numbers to be the first overall fantasy pick, all he has to do is score more than ADP or MJD. Which (barring injury) he will. I would take him first overall without hesitation.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Chris Johnson is the real deal. He's been so since he first stepped on to a NFL football field. This is no flash in the pan. Last years workload doesn't scare me one bit. If he was 29 it wold, but he's very young, doesn't take pounding hits, and extremely dynamic. He doesn't have to duplicate last years numbers to be the first overall fantasy pick, all he has to do is score more than ADP or MJD. Which (barring injury) he will. I would take him first overall without hesitation.

 

I tend to agree. I think sometime we over-analyze stuff too much. This is the most talented RB in the NFL at present.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

I confess I was surprised that Chris Johnson lasted until 1.4, but not so much if people have the same misgivings as I had. He is NOT going to duplicate last year's numbers, but that's what his ranking is predicated on. AP has been consistent, and last year was actually a little down for him. I think he does better than last year, and frankly last year is probably a floor to work with. Chris Johnson? Who knows? There are other things there that could hamper him - more later on that. The contract? Not even a blip on my radar.

 

 

The QB in the first wasn't terribly surprising; if any QB belongs there, it's Brees. I liked the selection. A nice variety of talent in the first round, nice to get away from the samey-samey junk.

 

Totally agree on CJ2K. Last years numbers are a high ceiling and the heavy worload has not been favorable for RB's in the past... WalterFootball has a nice visual on this.RB production after heavy workloads when you look at that, its a scary trend.

 

Picking at 4 I never expected to have to consider him. Fully thought I would be making a decision between Rice, Turner and maybe Gore. However it was a pick that had to be made. Im not concerned at all with the QB situation in Tenn. Honestly just the workload

[RLLD 3,455]

Totally agree on CJ2K. Last years numbers are a high ceiling and the heavy worload has not been favorable for RB's in the past... WalterFootball has a nice visual on this.RB production after heavy workloads when you look at that, its a scary trend.

 

Picking at 4 I never expected to have to consider him. Fully thought I would be making a decision between Rice, Turner and maybe Gore. However it was a pick that had to be made. Im not concerned at all with the QB situation in Tenn. Honestly just the workload

 

You don't deserve him

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

You don't deserve him

 

you're right i dont. he should have been gone. I don't at all regret the pick but the red flags are there. I simply wouldn't take him first overall but he is way too good to pass up at 4.

[Fumbleweed 426]

That's 2 hours...I'll e-mail Mike on what to do...

[Mike FF Today 608]

I will make NAn's picks if he doesn't show by 3:45 pm Central.

[Fumbleweed 426]

I always hate when someone can't make their own early pick...let alone two of them. But, I guess NAn has left us no choice...

[remote controller 133]

I always hate when someone can't make their own early pick...let alone two of them. But, I guess NAn has left us no choice...

We can always bring someone in and still allow NAn to comment. Let them take over.

[NAn 39]

sorry guys, I'm here now and will make my pick in 5mins if you guys havent' replaced me already

[Mike FF Today 608]

sorry guys, I'm here now and will make my pick in 5mins if you guys havent' replaced me already

 

Go for it.

[NAn 39]

Random thoughts...

 

Have no prob with AJ there even in this format...as safe as it gets and not high on couple other options here...

 

seeing Gore more and more each year as 'fool's gold'. I guess he's up here by default but he's only played 1 injury free season of 5 and when he has bad games...they are really bad games. Has he ever really lived up to his ADP in a given year?

 

Sjax again here by default IMO (and who has played 1 of 7 injury free seasons)...if you see the TDs bouncing back I get it...just not sure if you'll see just that as this offense will be a work in progress.

 

Turner down per my 400 f/carry research...after hitting that benchmark (2 years ago) RBs have like 25% chance of having productive years afterwards.

 

Like the Mendy pick, even though that's a bit earlier than I think he would go...but if you wanted him had to get him there b/c he wasn't coming back...I was considering going for boom/bust start of Greene/Mendy going into this.

 

Fitz is solid there as my #2rb...

 

Brees is fine, though FYI he would have been there in 2nd fumble.

[JScott 20]

Turner down per my 400 f/carry research...after hitting that benchmark (2 years ago) RBs have like 25% chance of having productive years afterwards.

 

This is primarily my reason for not being high on Turner. Even though he didn't have a lot of milage from his SD days, hitting that carry total in ATL from 2 years ago scares me. Which is why I think he ends up in the SJax/Gore/Mendy/Green/DWill tier.

[NAn 39]

I wanted to add, that despite my opiinions on Turner/SJax/Gore I don't necessarily fault the picks b/c where they were picked is about they're value. Only that in a REAL DRAFT situation if I had middle picks and those guys fell to me I'd likely trade down for value elsewhere...something we obviously can't do here.

[JScott 20]

I wanted to add, that despite my opiinions on Turner/SJax/Gore I don't necessarily fault the picks b/c where they were picked is about they're value. Only that in a REAL DRAFT situation if I had middle picks and those guys fell to me I'd likely trade down for value elsewhere...something we obviously can't do here.

 

Yep, pretty much my exact comment on the Turner pick.

[RLLD 3,455]

1 1.02 Chris Johnson RB TEN

2 1.02 Adrian Peterson RB MIN

3 1.04 Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC

4 1.04 Ray Rice RB BAL

5 1.06 Frank Gore RB SF

6 1.06 Andre Johnson WR HOU

7 1.07 Michael Turner RB ATL

8 1.09 Steven Jackson RB STL

9 1.11 ********************* Name Blocked as he hasn't been selected yet.

10 1.11 Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT

11 1.11 Reggie Wayne WR IND

 

 

 

Here is the ADP for round 1 at a site I prefer to use. Just for added perspective.

[NAn 39]

I should slap you.....

 

LOL, sorry didnt' know it was suppose to be a secret...I deleted mine, just need to delete yours.

[RLLD 3,455]

LOL, sorry didnt' know it was suppose to be a secret...I deleted mine, just need to delete yours.

 

Not that big a deal really, I mainly do not want to have people drift in there and potentially copy the same approach, but again, not a big deal at all

[Fumbleweed 426]

Random thoughts...

 

Have no prob with AJ there even in this format...as safe as it gets and not high on couple other options here...

 

seeing Gore more and more each year as 'fool's gold'. I guess he's up here by default but he's only played 1 injury free season of 5 and when he has bad games...they are really bad games. Has he ever really lived up to his ADP in a given year?

 

Sjax again here by default IMO (and who has played 1 of 7 injury free seasons)...if you see the TDs bouncing back I get it...just not sure if you'll see just that as this offense will be a work in progress.

 

Turner down per my 400 f/carry research...after hitting that benchmark (2 years ago) RBs have like 25% chance of having productive years afterwards.

 

Like the Mendy pick, even though that's a bit earlier than I think he would go...but if you wanted him had to get him there b/c he wasn't coming back...I was considering going for boom/bust start of Greene/Mendy going into this.

 

Fitz is solid there as my #2rb...

 

Brees is fine, though FYI he would have been there in 2nd fumble.

 

That's fine. Just wanted to get him for sure. Was not interested in Moss. If I had taken Greene at 1.11, I'd have had Brees and Greene. I'm satisfied with Brees and Williams, though.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

1 1.02 Chris Johnson RB TEN

2 1.02 Adrian Peterson RB MIN

3 1.04 Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC

4 1.04 Ray Rice RB BAL

5 1.06 Frank Gore RB SF

6 1.06 Andre Johnson WR HOU

7 1.07 Michael Turner RB ATL

8 1.09 Steven Jackson RB STL

9 1.11 ********************* Name Blocked as he hasn't been selected yet.

10 1.11 Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT

11 1.11 Reggie Wayne WR IND

 

 

 

Here is the ADP for round 1 at a site I prefer to use. Just for added perspective.

 

the old FF Calculator eh?

 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

That's fine. Just wanted to get him for sure. Was not interested in Moss. If I had taken Greene at 1.11, I'd have had Brees and Greene. I'm satisfied with Brees and Williams, though.

 

as a Jet homer i preach caution with Greene. He wowed us by coming in late season and in the postseason with fresh legs. I would like to see him produce for a full season. The loss of Faneca will hurt the run game as well. Faneca's play was tailing off but more so in pass protection.

 

however the upside is certainly there and he reminds me a ton of Turner.

[kmbryant09 1]

I would be if a League uses the "modified" serpentine, where the third round starts at the top again. I am in one League where this is used and it is a lot more fair and makes for a more interesting draft.

Maybe I'm missing something, but in a regular serpentine, doesn't the 3rd round start at the top again?