Who will be this years Matt Forte?

[Houston Texans 10]

It's been well documented that the Vikings' OLine struggled to create any holes for most of the season.

As it was with the Jaguars. They had to start two rookies at the tackles, Vince Manuwai struggled all year as he was still recovering from his season ending knee injury from 2008, Uche Nwaneri was moved to right guard last year, and Brad Meester had his worst season last year at age 33. So you had a very unsettled line. However, by all accounts, the two second-year tackles look MUCH better in OTAs, Nwaneri has learned the nuances of playing right guard, Manuwai appears to be (finally) recovered from this knee injury, and the Jags added Justin Smiley to compete with Meester at center this year. The O-line should be better than it was last year.

 

Also - it was well documented that AP started hesitating, possibly because of the poor OLine, or his fumbling problems. But none-the-less, his production did drop off as well, like MJD's. Maybe we just haven't heard much about MJD's situation, but it sounds like AP's problems weren't about him physically wearing down.

It sounds like the same thing for MJD. Other than you and the other poster in this thread (who are basing this "wearing down" talk on your gut), NOWHERE has it been suggested that MJD is worn down.

 

Also, from a FANTASY standpoint, AP didn't really fall of. His ypc were awful, but he scored 6 TD's over his final 4 games. A lot of that has to do with the effectiveness of the Vikings offense compared to Jacksonville's...Which is a MAJOR reason to trust AP this coming season over MJD.

NEITHER DID MJD!!!!!!! As I've mentioned SEVERAL times, MJD's YPC dropped, but he still put up top-10 RB numbers during weeks 11-16, which is when he supposedly "wore down."

 

I just think it's a lot more likely for MJD, and NOT AP, to physically wear down a little (misses a few games, plays a few games at 75%), and to also suffer because of his team's offensive inabilities.

Why? Based on what rational thought? I don't think either one are inclined to "wear down," however, ADP's running style is more suited to him taking big hits than MJDs. ADP runs upright and provides a much bigger target to hit. MJD is more compact and is much harder to get a good shot on.

[KSB2424 3,148]

Matt Forte was a top 10 pick last year that completely fell on his face. The factors were 1.) He is not a very dynamic runner and 2.) his team (O-Line) was bad. The combo of the two was a disaster. The reason it happened is that we didn't have enough data (time) to really get a sense for the guy.

 

I don't see this happening to AP, CJ, MJD, or Ray Rice. We know what we have with these Studs. Now there might be dropoffs or dissapointments with one or all of them. However that would be because of hold out or injury. Not because they suck and we all were fooled.

 

So my answer is that there won't be a Matt Forte this year. However where I do have red flags flying is guys like Forte that we don't have a whole lot of data on and may be fooled. Jamal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Jerome Harrison come to mind. I could just as easily see Thomas Jones, Mike Bell, or Hardesty getting more producion.

[kmbryant09 1]

As it was with the Jaguars. They had to start two rookies at the tackles, Vince Manuwai struggled all year as he was still recovering from his season ending knee injury from 2008, Uche Nwaneri was moved to right guard last year, and Brad Meester had his worst season last year at age 33. So you had a very unsettled line. However, by all accounts, the two second-year tackles look MUCH better in OTAs, Nwaneri has learned the nuances of playing right guard, Manuwai appears to be (finally) recovered from this knee injury, and the Jags added Justin Smiley to compete with Meester at center this year. The O-line should be better than it was last year.

 

 

It sounds like the same thing for MJD. Other than you and the other poster in this thread (who are basing this "wearing down" talk on your gut), NOWHERE has it been suggested that MJD is worn down.

 

 

NEITHER DID MJD!!!!!!! As I've mentioned SEVERAL times, MJD's YPC dropped, but he still put up top-10 RB numbers during weeks 11-16, which is when he supposedly "wore down."

 

Why? Based on what rational thought? I don't think either one are inclined to "wear down," however, ADP's running style is more suited to him taking big hits than MJDs. ADP runs upright and provides a much bigger target to hit. MJD is more compact and is much harder to get a good shot on.

Are you from Jacksonville??

 

First off - I implied that the Vikings OLine STARTED strong, and then tailed off and struggled the 2nd half of the season. From my understanding, the Jags OLine was just average ALL YEAR - which should keep MJD's stats level (all else being equal).

 

 

Do you not understand the concept of comparing relative stats....I DON'T CARE IF A RUNNING BACK PUTS UP TOP 10 NUMBERS OVER THE FINAL 6 WEEKS....If he put up top2 numbers through the first 10 weeks (with a higher ypc and more TD's) - then the final 6 weeks he wore down (at least fantasy-wise). Just because MJD's "down numbers" from week 11+ were still solid, doesn't mean they weren't down from his regular numbers.

 

Also - both RB's are the same age - and MJD actually has more career touches...And while AP's STYLE might make him more susceptible to injury (not sure why - he and MJD are both physical) - MJD is SIGNIFICANTLY smaller than AP.

 

And finally - how can you not agree that a falloff for MJD is more likely based on the surrounding parts. Assuming Favre comes back - I don't care how the season plays out...the Vikings offense will be better than the Jaguars offense GUARANTEED....Therefore, MJD is more likely to be limited by his offense, ALA Steven Jackson.

[Houston Texans 10]

First off - I implied that the Vikings OLine STARTED strong, and then tailed off and struggled the 2nd half of the season.

No, you didn't. You said:

It's been well documented that the Vikings' OLine struggled to create any holes for most of the season.

That's not implying that the Minny Oline started strong, then struggle. That's saying they struggled to create ANY holes for MOST of the season. I don't know if you are an alias of the original poster I was having this discussion with, but you appear to be trying to adjust facts to support your/his argument.

 

Do you not understand the concept of comparing relative stats....I DON'T CARE IF A RUNNING BACK PUTS UP TOP 10 NUMBERS OVER THE FINAL 6 WEEKS....If he put up top2 numbers through the first 10 weeks (with a higher ypc and more TD's) - then the final 6 weeks he wore down (at least fantasy-wise). Just because MJD's "down numbers" from week 11+ were still solid, doesn't mean they weren't down from his regular numbers.

First, then, did Ray Rice wear down? Did Frank Gore? Both of these RBs produced significantly worse (FF-speaking) during weeks 11-16 than they did weeks 1-10? They didn't wear down, they just didn't produce as many FF points, largely because of TDs, which are based on opportunity, not whether a RB is "worn down."

 

Second, you can't "wear down" fantasy-wise. You can produce less points, but the term "wear down" indicates that someone (MJD or ADP or whoever) got weaker, wasn't able to produce, etc, because of his body not being able to do the things he had done previously.

 

Third, yes I understand relative stats. But, the only stats that matter when discussing "wearing down" are YPC and number of touches (as well as injuries). Neither ADP or MJD were injured during weeks 11-16 last year, and neither got less touches than they did during the early part of the season (MJD=22.3 touches during weeks 1-10, 24.5 during weeks 11-16; ADP=22.6 touches during weeks 1-10, 24.2 during weeks 11-16). So the third criteria was YPC, and both RBs had YPC of 5.1 during weeks 1-10, but ADP's YPC dropped to 3.3 while MJD's dropped to 3.5. So, who "wore down" more? Neither got injured, neither lost touches (in fact, both RB's touches increased), and one RBs YPC suffered more than another. You keep saying MJD "wore down," but the relative stats say (if anyone did), it was ADP.

 

Also - both RB's are the same age - and MJD actually has more career touches

True, MJD does have 44 more touches (in 4 years, compared to ADP's 3), but ADP has more carries than MJD (while MJD has more receptions). When a RB runs the ball, he tends to take more hits, because he has to run into the defense. When a RB (or WR) receives the ball, he will not get as many hits, as he has already gotten behind some (if not all) the defenders. It's one of the reasons that RB's careers tend to be shorter than WRs and TEs. So, while MJD has more touches, ADP has more of the violent touches (aka: rushes).

 

And while AP's STYLE might make him more susceptible to injury (not sure why - he and MJD are both physical) - MJD is SIGNIFICANTLY smaller than AP.

If you aren't sure why a RB who runs very upright makes him more susceptible to injury than an RB who runs very compact, then I have to question your ability to think logically about this. Let me try to explain (AGAIN). A 6-1 RB, who runs very upright provides A LOT of area for defenders to hit him. He exposes his legs, knees, midsection, shoulders to more solid (ie-more mass hitting him) hits. A 5-7 RB who runs very small, provides LESS area for defenders to hit him. He doesn't expose as much of his body for those solid hits (ie-LESS mass hitting him). That is why an upright running style makes a RB (like ADP) more susceptible to injury than a RB who is smaller (like MJD).

 

Also, MJD is SIGNIFICANTLY shorter than ADP, not smaller. ADP is 6-1, 217 lbs. MJD is 5-7, 208 lbs. Nine extra pounds spread out over 6 inches doesn't make ADP bigger, just taller. MJD is much more thickly muscled, especially in the legs (QUADS) area than ADP (or most NFL RBs for that matter).

 

And finally - how can you not agree that a falloff for MJD is more likely based on the surrounding parts. Assuming Favre comes back - I don't care how the season plays out...the Vikings offense will be better than the Jaguars offense GUARANTEED....Therefore, MJD is more likely to be limited by his offense, ALA Steven Jackson.

I never said MJD is not limited by his offense, however, the fact is the offense isn't any worse then it was last year (should be better-Garrard had his worst year as a starter & should bounce back to some degree in 2010, and the O-line should be improved) and MJD did great last year, finishing as RB3. And I agree with you, Favre is probably coming back. However, you also need to understand that Favre had (arguably) his best year, EVER. He only threw 7 INTs!! Other than his rookie year in Atl (when he only attempted 5 passes), he's never thrown single digit INTs. Before last year, Favre averaged 1 INT every 30 attempts. Last year he threw 1 INT every 76 attempts!! The odds are that Favre will revert back to his career norm, and will throw around 15-18 INTs. That's 8-11 fewer drives for ADP to get touches. Also, if Favre throws more picks, chances are the other team will convert some of those picks into points, and the Vikings will throw more to compensate, further limiting ADP's touches (since he'll get fewer carries in those situations).

 

So, yes, I expect Minny's offense to be better than Jax's in 2010, but I also expect Minny's offense to be worse in 2010 than it was in 2009, while I expect Jax's offense in 2010 to be better (or at least comparable) to it's offense in 2009. That's a gain for MJD and a loss for ADP.

 

Once again, I expect BOTH MJD and ADP to do fine in 2010. However, based on the "gut" feeling you or the other poster had that led to the belief that MJD would be "this year's Matt Forte," and the "logic" he/you used to support that gut feeling, one would HAVE to conclude that ADP is also likely to be "this year's Matt Forte," and therefore that gut feeling and the "logic" it's based on is wrong.

[kmbryant09 1]

Houston - I'm not sure if you are actually Maurice Jones Drew, or if you are just his agent, but you can make reasons for every single RB to be the #1 RB, and to fall off and be a bust.

 

Both of these RB's have been rock-steady over the past 3-4 seasons. When comparing closely-drafted players such as these 2, I look at a few things:

 

Potential - Not saying MJD doesn't have potential, but AP could rush for 250 yards/3 TD's any given week. He (and Chris Johnson) is the most likely RB to rush for 2,200+ yards and have 18+ TD's. His receptions DOUBLED last year, with Chester Taylor in town. He has proven that he can turn his weaknesses into strengths, which is why I am also not worried about his fumble problems. At this point, you can't even say MJD gets a boost over AP in PPR formats.

 

Offensive Ability - I will not draft Steven Jackson this year. It's why I would draft Ryan Matthews over Cedric Benson, DWill, and possibly S. Greene. OPPORTUNITIES. It's why I would draft Ray Rice (and maybe even Gore) over MJD. A RB is severely limited by how good the rest of his offense is. You say Garrard had a "down year" - but I think you are still expecting the 2007 version to show up...That year was an anomaly for him (he only played 12 games as well). Besides that, he has had a career ~80 QB rating. You may think that's a small sample size - but it's actually about 50 career starts outside of 2007.

 

When talking about potential busts, or major drop-offs, "offensive ability" plays a big role. It will surely be hard for someone like AP to be a BUST in that offense. Even if he ONLY rushes for 1,100 yards, he'll still be a top6 RB with 13+ TD's. It's kinda strange, because I watched a lot of the Vikings games last year, and I thought the OLINE and AP had somewhat of an "off" year - and he finished with 18 TD's.

 

 

And I really don't want to keep going with this, or to nit-pick...but how can you say the other players fell off like MJD did?? I broke up Rice/MJD/Gore/AP's stats for weeks 1-10, and 11+ in a non-ppr league (very quickly):

 

AP - 18.2 ppg (1-10) 17.67 ppg (11+) 2.9% Decrease

Gore - 14.8 ppg (1-10) 16.67 ppg (11+) 12.6% Increase

Rice - 15.5 ppg (1-10) 13.17 ppg (11+) 15.0% Decrease

MJD - 18.4 ppg (1-10) 12.17 ppg (11+) 33.9% Decrease

 

And you can make the argument that Rice faced Pittsburgh TWICE in the final 6 weeks, and sat for a lot of the Oakland game in Week 17 (in which McGahee went off).

 

Call it wearing down or not, this is alarming.

[Houston Texans 10]

Houston - I'm not sure if you are actually Maurice Jones Drew, or if you are just his agent

Ha-ha, right because I must be MJD since I don't agree with your idiotic "gut feeling" that MJD is wearing down, and I use stats, reason, and logic to show how stupid that "gut feeling" is.

 

Potential - Not saying MJD doesn't have potential, but AP could rush for 250 yards/3 TD's any given week. He (and Chris Johnson) is the most likely RB to rush for 2,200+ yards and have 18+ TD's.

First, no RB is "likely" to rush for 2,200 yards-it's NEVER happened, so it's just stupid to say ANY RB is likely to do it.

 

Second, you say ADP could rush for over 250 yards/3 TDs any given week. So, I figured I'd look up the numbers. In a non-ppr league with "normal" scoring (1 pt 10 yards rush/rec, 6 pts-TD), ADP has 8 games with over 25 FF points in his career. In those same 3 years, MJD has 7. Hmm...that's not that big of a difference, is it? Seems like MJD has almost the same potential as ADP to have huge games.

 

His receptions DOUBLED last year, with Chester Taylor in town. He has proven that he can turn his weaknesses into strengths, which is why I am also not worried about his fumble problems. At this point, you can't even say MJD gets a boost over AP in PPR formats.

Oh, yes you can, and you have to. Yes, ADP doubled his receptions last year, to 43. That's a total that MJD has surpassed every year of his career, but one. It is more likely that MJD will get 50-60 receptions than it is for ADP to get 40 again.

 

Offensive Ability - I will not draft Steven Jackson this year. It's why I would draft Ryan Matthews over Cedric Benson, DWill, and possibly S. Greene. OPPORTUNITIES. It's why I would draft Ray Rice (and maybe even Gore) over MJD. A RB is severely limited by how good the rest of his offense is. You say Garrard had a "down year" - but I think you are still expecting the 2007 version to show up...That year was an anomaly for him (he only played 12 games as well). Besides that, he has had a career ~80 QB rating. You may think that's a small sample size - but it's actually about 50 career starts outside of 2007.

OPPORTUNITIES, huh? You do realize that MJD had more touches (ie-opportunities) than any of the RB's you listed above, right?

 

You also say a RB is severely limited by the rest of his offense. Well, I'll say it again: MJD had a bad offense last year, and his finished as the 3rd RB!!! His offense isn't any worse, so if he was "severely limited" by his offense last year and finished 3rd, does that mean his "severe limitations" are to be the 3rd best RB? If so, I'll take that.

 

As for 2007 being an "anomaly" for Garrard, why can't you accept that 2009 was an anomaly for Favre, and that Minny's offense probably isn't going to be as good this year (since Favre is likely to regress to his career mean). Do your "gut feelings" only count when they work for your illogical positions?

 

When talking about potential busts, or major drop-offs, "offensive ability" plays a big role. It will surely be hard for someone like AP to be a BUST in that offense. Even if he ONLY rushes for 1,100 yards, he'll still be a top6 RB with 13+ TD's. It's kinda strange, because I watched a lot of the Vikings games last year, and I thought the OLINE and AP had somewhat of an "off" year - and he finished with 18 TD's.

Offensive ability DOES play a big role. MJD has as much offensive ability as ADP. In fact, he has averaged over 1400 total yards and 13.5 TDs in his career, and that was with 3 of those years being the 2nd RB in a RBBC (with less than 200 carries each of those years). Even if MJD has an off year and only rushes for 1100 yards, he'd also still be a top RB, with double digit TDs (and more receiving yards to boot).

 

So last year Minny' Oline had an "off year" and ADP scored 18 TDs.

 

Guess what, Jax's Oline had an "off year" and MJD scored 16 TDs.

 

My point was, and still is, ADP is not likely to "wear down," and neither is MJD; however if you're going to make a stupid assertion like "MJD is likely to wear down," the same goes for ADP.

 

 

And I really don't want to keep going with this, or to nit-pick...but how can you say the other players fell off like MJD did?? I broke up Rice/MJD/Gore/AP's stats for weeks 1-10, and 11+ in a non-ppr league (very quickly):

 

AP - 18.2 ppg (1-10) 17.67 ppg (11+) 2.9% Decrease

Gore - 14.8 ppg (1-10) 16.67 ppg (11+) 12.6% Increase

Rice - 15.5 ppg (1-10) 13.17 ppg (11+) 15.0% Decrease

MJD - 18.4 ppg (1-10) 12.17 ppg (11+) 33.9% Decrease

 

Not sure where you got your numbers, but they're off. In a non-ppr league, 1 point for 10 yards rush/rec, 6 pts-TD:

 

ADP (WEEKS 1-10) 19.8 ppg

ADP (WEEKS 11-16) 16.8 ppg

 

MJD (WEEKS 1-10) 20 ppg

MJD (WEEKS 11-16) 14 ppg

 

Rice (WEEKS 1-10) 17 ppg

Rice (WEEKS 11-16) 14.9 ppg

 

Gore (WEEKS 1-10) 16.9 ppg

Gore (WEEKS 11-16) 14.5 ppg

 

And I can say those RBs "fell off" like MJD did because they all produced less FF points in weeks 11-16 than they did in weeks 1-10, largely due to less TDs, which are not based solely on a RB's ability, but (to a large degree) luck. If a WR gets tackled at the 1 yard line, the RB likely gets a 1 yard TD. If the WR doesn't get stopped, the RB doesn't get that TD.

[Houston Texans 10]

Houston - I'm not sure if you are actually Maurice Jones Drew, or if you are just his agent

Ha-ha, right because I must be MJD since I don't agree with your idiotic "gut feeling" that MJD is wearing down, and I use stats, reason, and logic to show how stupid that "gut feeling" is.

 

Potential - Not saying MJD doesn't have potential, but AP could rush for 250 yards/3 TD's any given week. He (and Chris Johnson) is the most likely RB to rush for 2,200+ yards and have 18+ TD's.

First, no RB is "likely" to rush for 2,200 yards-it's NEVER happened, so it's just stupid to say ANY RB is likely to do it.

 

Second, you say ADP could rush for over 250 yards/3 TDs any given week. So, I figured I'd look up the numbers. In a non-ppr league with "normal" scoring (1 pt 10 yards rush/rec, 6 pts-TD), ADP has 8 games with over 25 FF points in his career. In those same 3 years, MJD has 7. Hmm...that's not that big of a difference, is it? Seems like MJD has almost the same potential as ADP to have huge games.

 

His receptions DOUBLED last year, with Chester Taylor in town. He has proven that he can turn his weaknesses into strengths, which is why I am also not worried about his fumble problems. At this point, you can't even say MJD gets a boost over AP in PPR formats.

Oh, yes you can, and you have to. Yes, ADP doubled his receptions last year, to 43. That's a total that MJD has surpassed every year of his career, but one. It is more likely that MJD will get 50-60 receptions than it is for ADP to get 40 again.

 

Offensive Ability - I will not draft Steven Jackson this year. It's why I would draft Ryan Matthews over Cedric Benson, DWill, and possibly S. Greene. OPPORTUNITIES. It's why I would draft Ray Rice (and maybe even Gore) over MJD. A RB is severely limited by how good the rest of his offense is. You say Garrard had a "down year" - but I think you are still expecting the 2007 version to show up...That year was an anomaly for him (he only played 12 games as well). Besides that, he has had a career ~80 QB rating. You may think that's a small sample size - but it's actually about 50 career starts outside of 2007.

OPPORTUNITIES, huh? You do realize that MJD had more touches (ie-opportunities) than any of the RB's you listed above, right?

 

You also say a RB is severely limited by the rest of his offense. Well, I'll say it again: MJD had a bad offense last year, and his finished as the 3rd RB!!! His offense isn't any worse, so if he was "severely limited" by his offense last year and finished 3rd, does that mean his "severe limitations" are to be the 3rd best RB? If so, I'll take that.

 

As for 2007 being an "anomaly" for Garrard, why can't you accept that 2009 was an anomaly for Favre, and that Minny's offense probably isn't going to be as good this year (since Favre is likely to regress to his career mean). Do your "gut feelings" only count when they work for your illogical positions?

 

When talking about potential busts, or major drop-offs, "offensive ability" plays a big role. It will surely be hard for someone like AP to be a BUST in that offense. Even if he ONLY rushes for 1,100 yards, he'll still be a top6 RB with 13+ TD's. It's kinda strange, because I watched a lot of the Vikings games last year, and I thought the OLINE and AP had somewhat of an "off" year - and he finished with 18 TD's.

Offensive ability DOES play a big role. MJD has as much offensive ability as ADP. In fact, he has averaged over 1400 total yards and 13.5 TDs in his career, and that was with 3 of those years being the 2nd RB in a RBBC (with less than 200 carries each of those years). Even if MJD has an off year and only rushes for 1100 yards, he'd also still be a top RB, with double digit TDs (and more receiving yards to boot).

 

So last year Minny' Oline had an "off year" and ADP scored 18 TDs.

 

Guess what, Jax's Oline had an "off year" and MJD scored 16 TDs.

 

My point was, and still is, ADP is not likely to "wear down," and neither is MJD; however if you're going to make a stupid assertion like "MJD is likely to wear down," the same goes for ADP.

 

 

And I really don't want to keep going with this, or to nit-pick...but how can you say the other players fell off like MJD did?? I broke up Rice/MJD/Gore/AP's stats for weeks 1-10, and 11+ in a non-ppr league (very quickly):

 

AP - 18.2 ppg (1-10) 17.67 ppg (11+) 2.9% Decrease

Gore - 14.8 ppg (1-10) 16.67 ppg (11+) 12.6% Increase

Rice - 15.5 ppg (1-10) 13.17 ppg (11+) 15.0% Decrease

MJD - 18.4 ppg (1-10) 12.17 ppg (11+) 33.9% Decrease

 

Not sure where you got your numbers, but they're off. In a non-ppr league, 1 point for 10 yards rush/rec, 6 pts-TD:

 

ADP (WEEKS 1-10) 19.8 ppg

ADP (WEEKS 11-16) 16.8 ppg

 

MJD (WEEKS 1-10) 20 ppg

MJD (WEEKS 11-16) 14 ppg

 

Rice (WEEKS 1-10) 17 ppg

Rice (WEEKS 11-16) 14.9 ppg

 

Gore (WEEKS 1-10) 16.9 ppg

Gore (WEEKS 11-16) 14.5 ppg

 

And I can say those RBs "fell off" like MJD did because they all produced less FF points in weeks 11-16 than they did in weeks 1-10, largely due to less TDs, which are not based solely on a RB's ability, but (to a large degree) luck. If a WR gets tackled at the 1 yard line, the RB likely gets a 1 yard TD. If the WR doesn't get stopped, the RB doesn't get that TD.

[kmbryant09 1]

Ha-ha, right because I must be MJD since I don't agree with your idiotic "gut feeling" that MJD is wearing down, and I use stats, reason, and logic to show how stupid that "gut feeling" is.

I'm pretty sure I've used stats, reason, and logic to defend my assertions...far from a "gut feeling. My point has always been that, there are more signs pointing for an MJD let-down than there are for an AP let-down.

 

First, no RB is "likely" to rush for 2,200 yards-it's NEVER happened, so it's just stupid to say ANY RB is likely to do it.

 

 

Second, you say ADP could rush for over 250 yards/3 TDs any given week. So, I figured I'd look up the numbers. In a non-ppr league with "normal" scoring (1 pt 10 yards rush/rec, 6 pts-TD), ADP has 8 games with over 25 FF points in his career. In those same 3 years, MJD has 7. Hmm...that's not that big of a difference, is it? Seems like MJD has almost the same potential as ADP to have huge games.

Are you blind - I said he is MOST likely, as in...more likely than MJD to have a ridiculous game. I mean he did break the single-game rushing record...AS A ROOKIE, against LT in his prime...He has 6 games of 160+ rushing yards in his 3 seasons...MJD has 2 such games in 4 seasons.

Ya - AP has 8 games of 25+ points in 3 seasons, and MJD has 7 in 4 seasons...hardly a difference there MJD has 12 career 100+ yard games in 63 games. Granted that's been split time, so take away the 12 games that he DIDN'T receive 10+ carries...And he still has rushed for 100+ yards in 12/51 career games. AP you ask??? 19/46. So yes, AP has more explosive potential than MJD.

 

Oh, yes you can, and you have to. Yes, ADP doubled his receptions last year, to 43. That's a total that MJD has surpassed every year of his career, but one. It is more likely that MJD will get 50-60 receptions than it is for ADP to get 40 again.

Really? We can expect MJD to have between 45-60 receptions, almost a lock.

But AP's receiving skills are still on the way up (improving drastically). He caught 43 last year...WITH CHESTOR TAYLOR in town. Even if Taylor was in town, it would be reasonable to project AP for ~45-50 receptions. Now that their 3rd down RB is OUT, I think AP could catch 55+ passes.

 

OPPORTUNITIES, huh? You do realize that MJD had more touches (ie-opportunities) than any of the RB's you listed above, right?

I'm speaking of opportunities as in SCORING chances based on how potent their offense is...For instance, Joseph Addai has more scoring chances than Steven Jackson.

 

As for 2007 being an "anomaly" for Garrard, why can't you accept that 2009 was an anomaly for Favre, and that Minny's offense probably isn't going to be as good this year (since Favre is likely to regress to his career mean). Do your "gut feelings" only count when they work for your illogical positions?

Favre had the best season of his career - but the only anomaly about last season was the extremely low INT numbers. He's thrown 4,000 yards plenty of times, and thrown 25+ TD's plenty of times. I will completely agree that it will be extremely hard for this Vikings offense to BE BETTER in 2010. But it's hard to imagine them being much worse with 25-year-old AP, Favre returning, a 2nd-year ALL-AROUND player in Percy Harvin, and the ultra-talented, emerging stud WR in Sidney Rice (not to mention a blossoming TE). Favre's success lead to extended drives and scoring opportunities, but if you owned AP last year, you know that AP was cheated out of a few TD's. So he giveth, and he taketh away. AP's 18 TD's could have been 14, but they also could have been 25.

 

Offensive ability DOES play a big role. MJD has as much offensive ability as ADP. In fact, he has averaged over 1400 total yards and 13.5 TDs in his career, and that was with 3 of those years being the 2nd RB in a RBBC (with less than 200 carries each of those years). Even if MJD has an off year and only rushes for 1100 yards, he'd also still be a top RB, with double digit TDs (and more receiving yards to boot).

MJD is fantastic, I'm not hating on him - but the Jacksonville offense has been shakier and shakier. If this offense really struggles, I'm not sure you can COUNT ON 10+ TD's for MJD. It's certainly still LIKELY to happen, but find me one person who thinks AP will have less than 12 TD's this coming season (assuming Favre returns).

 

Not sure where you got your numbers, but they're off. In a non-ppr league, 1 point for 10 yards rush/rec, 6 pts-TD:

 

ADP (WEEKS 1-10) 19.8 ppg

ADP (WEEKS 11-16) 16.8 ppg

 

MJD (WEEKS 1-10) 20 ppg

MJD (WEEKS 11-16) 14 ppg

 

Rice (WEEKS 1-10) 17 ppg

Rice (WEEKS 11-16) 14.9 ppg

 

Gore (WEEKS 1-10) 16.9 ppg

Gore (WEEKS 11-16) 14.5 ppg

 

And I can say those RBs "fell off" like MJD did because they all produced less FF points in weeks 11-16 than they did in weeks 1-10, largely due to less TDs, which are not based solely on a RB's ability, but (to a large degree) luck. If a WR gets tackled at the 1 yard line, the RB likely gets a 1 yard TD. If the WR doesn't get stopped, the RB doesn't get that TD.

Like I said, I did it very quickly - but I did it on a game-to-game basis...which means 59 rushing yards is still only 5 points, not 5.9 if you tally them all up, so maybe that's the difference. (I just re-calculated MJD's numbers again and still came up with my original results).

 

But that's splitting hairs - how can you say those other RB's dropped off JUST LIKE MJD DID? Did they drop off? Yes. Did they drop off as much as MJD did? Not even close.

[MDC 7,469]

1. I can't believe this thread has gone on to the point that people are discussing which RB has the better thighs and ass.

 

2. Only a fool would take MJD over AP.

 

hth

[RosterDoc 0]

Look we can debate every single point of MJDs life.

 

Here's my statement....this post was about who will be this years Forte...To me thats a top 5 draft pick that stumbles.

 

Out of the most likely top 5 draft picks I would pick MJD as most likely to disappoint owners. Is there fact to support that? Maybe...maybe not...who cares?

 

MJD was not good during the fantasy playoffs. He had great games early in the season and perhaps took owners to the fantasy playoffs.....then pooped a balloon and let them down.

 

- MJD had only 4 total TDs the last 7 weeks of the 2009 season

- MJD had just five 100 yard games in 2009.....4 of them PRIOR to week 11

- MJD had 6 games with less than 70 yards rushing

- MJD had 25 carries for 66 yards against Buffalo....who allowed a gazillion rushing yards last year

- MJD ended the season with just 1 quality game in his last 7.

 

A guy who lets you down during the last 7 weeks of the season definitely puts up some red flags....thus why I said I think he's a candidate to disappoint owners for where he's drafted in 2010.

 

 

 

1. I can't believe this thread has gone on to the point that people are discussing which RB has the better thighs and ass.

 

2. Only a fool would take MJD over AP.

 

hth

 

 

 

[kmbryant09 1]

Look we can debate every single point of MJDs life.

 

Here's my statement....this post was about who will be this years Forte...To me thats a top 5 draft pick that stumbles.

 

Out of the most likely top 5 draft picks I would pick MJD as most likely to disappoint owners. Is there fact to support that? Maybe...maybe not...who cares?

 

MJD was not good during the fantasy playoffs. He had great games early in the season and perhaps took owners to the fantasy playoffs.....then pooped a balloon and let them down.

 

- MJD had only 4 total TDs the last 7 weeks of the 2009 season

- MJD had just five 100 yard games in 2009.....4 of them PRIOR to week 11

- MJD had 6 games with less than 70 yards rushing

- MJD had 25 carries for 66 yards against Buffalo....who allowed a gazillion rushing yards last year

- MJD ended the season with just 1 quality game in his last 7.

 

A guy who lets you down during the last 7 weeks of the season definitely puts up some red flags....thus why I said I think he's a candidate to disappoint owners for where he's drafted in 2010.

[Houston Texans 10]

Look we can debate every single point of MJDs life.

 

Here's my statement....this post was about who will be this years Forte...To me thats a top 5 draft pick that stumbles.

 

Out of the most likely top 5 draft picks I would pick MJD as most likely to disappoint owners. Is there fact to support that? Maybe...maybe not...who cares?

If you're going to make that kind of statement on a FF message board, you should have facts that support it.

 

Let's look at the "facts" you provided.

 

- MJD had only 4 total TDs the last 7 weeks of the 2009 season

Let's ignore week 17, since most FF leagues don't use it as part of the playoffs.

ADP has only 6 total TDs during the last 6 weeks (11-16) of the 2009 season.

Ray Rice had only 1 total TDs during the last 6 weeks of the 2009 season.

Frank Gore had only 6 total TDs during the last 6 weeks of the 2009 season.

 

MJD had just five 100 yard games in 2009.....4 of them PRIOR to week 11

ADP had just three 100 yard games in 2009..... ALL of them prior to week 11

Rice had just four 100 yard games in 2009..... 2 of them prior to week 11

Gore had just five 100 yard games in 2009..... 2 of them prior to week 11

 

MJD had 6 games with less than 70 yards rushing

ADP had 6 games with less than 70 yards rushing

Rice had 5 games with less than 70 yards rushing (and 1 each with 70 & 71)

Gore had 6 games with less than 70 yards rushing (and missed 2 more to injury & had 1 game with 71)

 

MJD had 25 carries for 66 yards against Buffalo....who allowed a gazillion rushing yards last year

ADP had 13 carries for 19 yards against Arizona, who didn't allow a "gazillion" yards last year, but did allow virtually the same YPC as Buffalo

Rice had 20 carries for 71 yards against Indianapolis, who allowed a "bazillion" (a little less than a gazillion?) yards last year

Gore had 28 carries for 71 yards against Detroit last year AND 22 carries for 30 yards against Arizona, both of whom were in the bottom half of rush D's last year.

 

MJD ended the season with just 1 quality game in his last 7.

Not sure what counts as a "guality game" but looking at MJD's stats those games (non-ppr league), I'd assume it means 20+ FF points.

ADP had just 2 quality games in his last 6 (weeks 11-16).

Rice had just 1 quality game in his last 6.

Gore had just 3 quality games in his last 6.

 

Quick Summary (of RosterDoc's criteria)

TDs-MJD had 2 less than ADP and Gore, but 3 more than Rice

100 yard games-MJD had 5 100 yard games, more than ADP and Rice, and equal to Gore. MJD had 1 during weeks 11-16, ADP had ZERO, Rice and Gore had 2 each.

<70 yards-MJD had 6 games, ADP had 6, Rice had 5, Gore had 6

Bad games-MJD had one against Buffalo, ADP had one against Ari, Rice had one against Indy, Gore had two (against Detroit AND Arizona)

Quality games (weeks 11-16)-MJD had 1, ADP had 2, Rice had 1, Gore had 3

 

Other than TDs (which are often based on factors outside the control of the RBs) MJD was just as good, if not better than these other RBs.

 

A guy who lets you down during the last 7 weeks of the season definitely puts up some red flags....thus why I said I think he's a candidate to disappoint owners for where he's drafted in 2010.

Again, as I've said numerous times before: If you're going to use this (bolded) above as the criteria for believing MJD is going to be a "Matt Forte," then you need to consider ADP, Rice, and Gore (basically 3 of the other members of the top-5 RBs from 2009, and most predicted to be top-5 in 2010) as potentially being the "Matt Forte" of 2010 as well.

 

I'M NOT BASHING ADP (OR GORE, OR RICE, I'M NOT EVEN TRYING TO BASH THE POSTERS WHO'VE CALLED FOR MJD TO BE THIS YEAR'S "MATT FORTE"). I don't think any of these guys will be "Matt Forte"-like busts. But I strongly disagree with the idea that MJD will be, either. He had a bad stretch. It happens, to all RBs (as I've demonstrated, it happened to 3 of the other "top-5" RBs from 2009 at the same time).

 

As I've stated before, I would expect Chris Johnson to be the RB who most disappoints his owners in 2010. He may not be a "Matt Forte," but he is IMO due for a BIG drop from his 2009 numbers, and (again, IMO) will put up less points than his owners are hoping for.

[Kitsnow 0]

MJD debate meh, he's repeated doing well in the past and not old enough to have had his motor completely burned out yet.

 

A forte Type player is a young player who seems to do well and gets drafted high because of it. Of the players who get drafted early this year who fit that bill four stand out. (Happened to Addai in 08 and forte in 09)

 

Mendenhall

Greene

Matthews

Charles

 

Who will it be? I have no Idea. But I'm not sure MJD fits into the bill. If you want to look at players who are experienced but feel might slip after a good year like LT or Jacobs 2009 then you might choose to include MJD.

[schmitty34 2]

kmbryant and rosterdoc - sorry dudes, but I gotta say that houston texans killed you guys on this. rosterdoc more so than kmbryant.

 

I know you are going to think I'm stupid for saying it, just like you think houston texans is stupid, but I don't care, it's just the internet.

 

Enjoyed the debate....

[Gepetto 1,370]

This whole debate is meaningless b/c Matt Forte only had a down year because of multiple injuries.

[RosterDoc 0]

I think the HoustonTexan guy secretly works for my competitors haha

 

Thanks Texans for turning an OPINION post into some political debate. Keep it real dude.

 

You are missing the point.... FORGET ABOUT COMPARING MJD TO ANYBODY. FORGET ADP...JOHNSON...RICE FORGET THEM ALL

 

My last post listing his 2009 points I said ARE ENOUGH TO RAISE RED FLAGS ABOUT DRAFTING HIM IN 2010.

 

Are you saying my OPINION is wrong?

 

Geez dude.

 

This whole debate is meaningless b/c Matt Forte only had a down year because of multiple injuries.

 

 

 

[Gepetto 1,370]

I think the HoustonTexan guy secretly works for my competitors haha

 

Thanks Texans for turning an OPINION post into some political debate. Keep it real dude.

 

You are missing the point.... FORGET ABOUT COMPARING MJD TO ANYBODY. FORGET ADP...JOHNSON...RICE FORGET THEM ALL

 

My last post listing his 2009 points I said ARE ENOUGH TO RAISE RED FLAGS ABOUT DRAFTING HIM IN 2010.

 

Are you saying my OPINION is wrong?

 

Geez dude.

 

Not at all. You're opinion is fine and good. I just want to point out (seperate of your intention for this post, sorry), just that Forte is still a good running back and was hurt last year, that's all. I don't want people to forget that. Forte recently said he's healed up and has "burst" that he says he didn't have last year because of the knee and thigh injuries.

[Houston Texans 10]

I think the HoustonTexan guy secretly works for my competitors haha

 

Thanks Texans for turning an OPINION post into some political debate. Keep it real dude.

 

You are missing the point.... FORGET ABOUT COMPARING MJD TO ANYBODY. FORGET ADP...JOHNSON...RICE FORGET THEM ALL

 

My last post listing his 2009 points I said ARE ENOUGH TO RAISE RED FLAGS ABOUT DRAFTING HIM IN 2010.

 

Are you saying my OPINION is wrong?

 

Geez dude.

Geez dude.

 

If you read what I posted, you'd see that I'm saying the "facts" you use to come to your opinion would be ENOUGH TO RAISE THE SAME RED FLAGS ABOUT DRAFTING ADP, GORE, RICE, or many other RBs in 2010. So why do you choose to focus on these "facts" about MJD to come to your opinion, when you chooose to ignore a very similar set of facts about these other RBs?

 

There's not really anything unusual about MJD's 2009 season to warrant staying away from him. RBs tend to be streaky, and TDs are subjective. You can find most RBs have sub-par games and/or games where they don't score TDs. That' normal. Chris Johnson's 2009 season (with all the 100 yard games) is much less common.

 

BTW-yes, I'm saying I believe that your opinion will prove to be wrong.

[RosterDoc 0]

I've been quite successful playing fantasy football for the last 18 years....and when a top 3 draft pick scores me 4 TDs in his last 7 games yes thats a red flag TO ME.

 

When a top 3 draft pick plays the Buffalo Bills...who gave up 2501 rushing yards last year which is 156.3 yards per game....and carries 25 times for 66 yards against them....thats a red flag to me.

 

Lets not forget about MJDs back to back stellar performances where he carried 6 times for 14 yards against TEN.....followed by a 12 carry for 34 yard game against Seattle. Both games were blowouts. But still.... R E D F L A G

 

In my opinion, the Jaguars will be very bad this year and MJD will have several games where he carries 25 times for 70 yards. FOR ME and me only, thats not what I envision from a top 3 draft pick.

 

We'll see how it all plays out in just a few months.

 

Gepetto - Yes this post definitely swerved wayyyy off topic haha

 

I agree with you Forte gets a mulligan for last season. Lots to be excited about with him this year especially in PPR.

 

 

Geez dude.

 

If you read what I posted, you'd see that I'm saying the "facts" you use to come to your opinion would be ENOUGH TO RAISE THE SAME RED FLAGS ABOUT DRAFTING ADP, GORE, RICE, or many other RBs in 2010. So why do you choose to focus on these "facts" about MJD to come to your opinion, when you chooose to ignore a very similar set of facts about these other RBs?

 

There's not really anything unusual about MJD's 2009 season to warrant staying away from him. RBs tend to be streaky, and TDs are subjective. You can find most RBs have sub-par games and/or games where they don't score TDs. That' normal. Chris Johnson's 2009 season (with all the 100 yard games) is much less common.

 

BTW-yes, I'm saying I believe that your opinion will prove to be wrong.

 

 

 

[kmbryant09 1]

kmbryant and rosterdoc - sorry dudes, but I gotta say that houston texans killed you guys on this. rosterdoc more so than kmbryant.

 

I know you are going to think I'm stupid for saying it, just like you think houston texans is stupid, but I don't care, it's just the internet.

 

Enjoyed the debate....

I respect your opinion, but how so?

 

I think I've only gone on record saying MJD is more likely for a let down than some of the other top RB's being drafted. I showed HOW MUCH OF A DROPOFF MJD has had...Nearly a 35% decrease from weeks 1-10, and week 11+. His response to that was every other top RB wore down too...Really? AP wore down 3%. Rice 15% (somewhat explanatory too, considering his opponents and that he sat a lot of week 17 when McGahee went off), and Gore actually INCREASED his productivity.

 

I never disputed that MJD wasn't a top5 RB last season, I never said I wouldn't draft the guy...I'm just saying, based on the surrounding offenses and the downhill production swing last season, MJD is more likely to disappoint than the other RB's.

[Houston Texans 10]

I think I've only gone on record saying MJD is more likely for a let down than some of the other top RB's being drafted. I showed HOW MUCH OF A DROPOFF MJD has had...1Nearly a 35% decrease from weeks 1-10, and week 11+. His response to that was every other top RB wore down too...Really? AP wore down 3%. Rice 15% (somewhat explanatory too, considering his opponents and that he sat a lot of week 17 when McGahee went off), and Gore actually INCREASED his productivity.

First, as I've said before, this decrease in FF production is primarily due to a decrease in TD opportunities, which IS NOT something the RB can really control. It's not a sign of "wearing down," just that he didn't get as many TD chances during those game. That being said, your numbers and percentages are wrong.

 

1-MJD's drop-off was 30%, not 35% (20 ppg weeks 1-10, 14 ppg weeks 11-16, 6 ppg less, 6/20=30%)

 

2-ADP's drop-off was 15%, not 3% (19.8 ppg weeks 1-10, 16.8 ppg weeks 11-16, 3 less ppg, 3/19.8=15%)

 

3-Rice's drop-off was 12%, not 15%

 

4-Gore did not increase, his drop-off was 14% (16.9 ppg weeks 1-10, 14.5 ppg weeks 11-16, 2.4 ppg less, 2.4/16.9=14%)

 

When you look at the correct numbers, the difference isn't nearly as huge as you try to portray it.

 

I never disputed that MJD wasn't a top5 RB last season, I never said I wouldn't draft the guy...I'm just saying, based on the downhill production swing last season, MJD is more likely to disappoint than the other RB's.

So these RBs were likely to disappoint, as well?

 

In 2003, Ahman Green saw his FF point production drop 34% during weeks 11-16.

In 2004, Clinton Portis saw his FF point production drop off 19% during weeks 11-16.

In 2005 Ladanian Tomlinson saw his FF point production drop off 42% during weeks 11-16.

In 2007, Brian Westbrook saw his FF point production drop off 27% during weeks 11-16.

 

That was just a quick search of the top guys of the past few years. Just because each of these RBs had a bad FF scoring stretch (due to decrease in TD production in each case) doesn't mean he "wore down," or was done as a top FF RB. With the exception of Green, each of these RBs went on to have more seasons as top RBs.

 

My point was, and still is, that these RBs had a bad FF stretch, merely b/c of a few bad TD games. That doesn't mean they wore down, or that they are more likely to bust (be this year's "Matt Forte").

 

Did MJD have a bad stretch of games during the end of the FF season and during FF playoffs? Yes, undoubtedly. Did it hurt his FF owner's chances of winning? Probably. Is it an indication that he will be a disappointment or "this year's Matt Forte?" Absolutely not. As I've demonstrated, it happens. It happened last year (to a lesser degree) to 3 of the other top-5 RBs. It's happened before to stud RBs like LT, Green, Portis, Westbrook, etc.

[kmbryant09 1]

First, as I've said before, this decrease in FF production is primarily due to a decrease in TD opportunities, which IS NOT something the RB can really control. It's not a sign of "wearing down," just that he didn't get as many TD chances during those game. That being said, your numbers and percentages are wrong.

 

1-MJD's drop-off was 30%, not 35% (20 ppg weeks 1-10, 14 ppg weeks 11-16, 6 ppg less, 6/20=30%)

 

2-ADP's drop-off was 15%, not 3% (19.8 ppg weeks 1-10, 16.8 ppg weeks 11-16, 3 less ppg, 3/19.8=15%)

 

3-Rice's drop-off was 12%, not 15%

 

4-Gore did not increase, his drop-off was 14% (16.9 ppg weeks 1-10, 14.5 ppg weeks 11-16, 2.4 ppg less, 2.4/16.9=14%)

 

When you look at the correct numbers, the difference isn't nearly as huge as you try to portray it.

 

 

So these RBs were likely to disappoint, as well?

 

In 2003, Ahman Green saw his FF point production drop 34% during weeks 11-16.

In 2004, Clinton Portis saw his FF point production drop off 19% during weeks 11-16.

In 2005 Ladanian Tomlinson saw his FF point production drop off 42% during weeks 11-16.

In 2007, Brian Westbrook saw his FF point production drop off 27% during weeks 11-16.

 

That was just a quick search of the top guys of the past few years. Just because each of these RBs had a bad FF scoring stretch (due to decrease in TD production in each case) doesn't mean he "wore down," or was done as a top FF RB. With the exception of Green, each of these RBs went on to have more seasons as top RBs.

 

My point was, and still is, that these RBs had a bad FF stretch, merely b/c of a few bad TD games. That doesn't mean they wore down, or that they are more likely to bust (be this year's "Matt Forte").

 

Did MJD have a bad stretch of games during the end of the FF season and during FF playoffs? Yes, undoubtedly. Did it hurt his FF owner's chances of winning? Probably. Is it an indication that he will be a disappointment or "this year's Matt Forte?" Absolutely not. As I've demonstrated, it happens. It happened last year (to a lesser degree) to 3 of the other top-5 RBs. It's happened before to stud RBs like LT, Green, Portis, Westbrook, etc.

THIS IS A BIG PORTION OF MY ARGUMENT!!!! I'll trust AP on the Vikings offense, or Ray Rice on the Ravens offense, or even Gore on the 49ers emerging offense LONG BEFORE I'D TRUST THE JAGUARS OFFENSE. If Steven Jackson was on the Saints, he'd be a potential 1st overall pick...As it is he's probably being drafted a little too high towards the late 1st round, because he's on a sh!tty offense.

 

In fantasy - OPPORTUNITIES RULE ALL...And I'm not sure the Jaguars will offer a ton of SCORING opportunities for MJD - certainly not as many opportunities as AP, Rice, and probably Gore will get.

 

And how are my stats wrong, I'd post the game logs, but that would take too long...I majored in finance, minored in stats...so I'm pretty confident I can make a few simple calculations. Roughly speaking, MJD declined 35%. Rice 15% (with 2 Pittsburg matchups and McGahee going off Week 17). AP had a 3% decrease. Gore actually had an INCREASE.

 

I don't know what else of my statements you can dissect and try to prove wrong.

[kmbryant09 1]

Houston - you can't simply add up weeks 1-10 for yardage (rushing and receiving) and divide by 10. If AP rushes for 59 yards, 69 yards, and 88 yards in 3 weeks - that's 5 points, 6 points, and 8 points = 19 points. If you simply add them up THEN divide - you'd have AP for 21.6 points. Of course, this is assuming you don't play in fractional points, which I don't (and I think is pretty standard).

 

Did the numbers again and these are the results:

MJD - 18.4 ppg (1-10), 12.17 ppg (11-17), 34% decrease

Rice - 15.7 ppg (1-10), 13.17 ppg (11-17), 16% decrease

AP - 18 ppg (1-10), 16.17 ppg (11-17), 10% decrease

Gore - 15.5 ppg (1-10), 15.67 ppg (11-17), 1% increase.

 

I apologize for being slightly off on AP, not sure what the difference was, but was pretty spot on with everything else.

 

Case closed.

[schmitty34 2]

I respect your opinion, but how so?

 

 

I think I'll backtrack on my statement about you. I actually think you are making strong arguments, but you seem to be arguing something slightly different than what this debate started as.

 

If you are arguing that MJD is more likely to disappoint than other top 3 picks, I think your arguments are valid. You can make arguments against that as well, but you can always do that.

 

The original debate with rosterdoc was centered around MJD being this year's Forte (meaning he'd totally flop, not just disapoint based on draft position) because he wore down physically last year.

 

I don't think the facts support MJD physically wearing down, but they do show that he didn't perform as well for FFB playoffs....much different than wearing down.

 

The whole point of contention that started (you joined late, after the rosterdoc started changing his argument) was centered around physically wearing down vs. not scoring as many FFB points. This is where I think rosterdoc gets killed in the argument. The only way his arguments appear valid, IMO, is if he starts backtracking and only stating that MJD will dissapoint as a top 3 pick.

 

Anyway, I thought I'd just throw my thoughts in because I thought the debate was fun and figured I would declare a winner

[RosterDoc 0]

ok schmitty I never changed my argument....and since we're being insanely nit picky here let me re-phrase...

 

This started as a who will be the Forte discussion. Perhaps I took that too literally. I certainly do not think that MJD will put up numbers like Forte did last year. Forte was a top 5 draft pick last season that flopped. To me that means...Which of the 2010 top 5 draft picks has the best chance to flop. Again thats MJD....I DONT THINK HE WILL FLOP LIKE FORTE....but I could see him flopping to like 8th-10th overall come end of the year...which would be a disappointment if you took him with a top pick.

 

Kym nailed it on the head....MJD isnt automatic because he's on a shitty team and Houston Texans even said that MJD doesnt get the TD opportunities that the other top RBs get....DUHHHHHHHHHHHH thats what we've been trying to explain the whole time.

 

So no nobody thinks MJD is gonna flop like Forte or anything....but if I have the 2nd or 3rd pick in my fantasy draft...yeah I'll take someone else because of the red flags MJD and his team put up.

 

 

I think I'll backtrack on my statement about you. I actually think you are making strong arguments, but you seem to be arguing something slightly different than what this debate started as.

 

If you are arguing that MJD is more likely to disappoint than other top 3 picks, I think your arguments are valid. You can make arguments against that as well, but you can always do that.

 

The original debate with rosterdoc was centered around MJD being this year's Forte (meaning he'd totally flop, not just disapoint based on draft position) because he wore down physically last year.

 

I don't think the facts support MJD physically wearing down, but they do show that he didn't perform as well for FFB playoffs....much different than wearing down.

 

The whole point of contention that started (you joined late, after the rosterdoc started changing his argument) was centered around physically wearing down vs. not scoring as many FFB points. This is where I think rosterdoc gets killed in the argument. The only way his arguments appear valid, IMO, is if he starts backtracking and only stating that MJD will dissapoint as a top 3 pick.

 

Anyway, I thought I'd just throw my thoughts in because I thought the debate was fun and figured I would declare a winner

 

 

 

[RosterDoc 0]

Schmitty I think you're referring to the wearing down part right? I still stand by the fact that I believe he wore down a little bit. I watched his games...you can see it. He has to use every ounce of his energy to gain each inch. That would take a toll on anyones body. Beatings like that leave you more open to injury. I don't think he's worn out like Tomlinson of course....I'm just saying these are all red flags and you can't argue that MJD has risks. I just wouldnt want him on my team this year. Id take ADP/Johnson/Rice and Gore before MJD.

 

[Houston Texans 10]

Kym nailed it on the head....MJD isnt automatic because he's on a shitty team

I thought you didn't change your argument? Because in your first post {see below}, you insisted that MJD "wore down"?

 

I think Maurice Jones-Drew is a candidate for a Forte like season.....and Jones-Drew wore down at the end of last season.

 

Anyway, PLEASE ANSWER THIS QUESTION--I HAVE ASKED IT SEVERAL TIMES:

 

Does Jacksonville look any worse for 2010 than they were in 2009?

 

I don' think so, and if MJD could be RB3 with a shitty team, why do you expect him to "flop" and not be able to do that again?

 

and Houston Texans even said that MJD doesnt get the TD opportunities that the other top RBs get

No, I didn't. What I posted was that DURING THAT BAD STRETCH, MJD didn't get as many TD opps as usual.

In fact, in the last 3 years (2007-2009), MJD has the 3rd most goal line rushes (inside the opponent's 5 yard line) with 48 carries. Only LT and T Jones have more.

[RosterDoc 0]

I didnt change my argument...its simply been added to.

 

A. Yes for reasons I've stated 50 times Id say MJD wore down. Unless you are really Maurice Jones Drew how the hell do you know how his body is doing?

B. Jacksonville...yes I do believe they can be worse than last year.

C. MJD had 4 TDs his last 7 games

D. 8 of MJDs games in 2009 were awful

 

Can you dispute the above? Can you dispute that drafting MJD comes with risk?

 

Forget about being Forte...nobody will be Forte. MJD won't be the 25th ranked RB come years end.....but he's going to be picked in the top 3 of every fantasy draft and I believe he will finish the year between 8th - 10th. A guy drafted 2nd or 3rd that finishes 8th-10th is a bust to me. Do you dispute that?

 

 

 

 

 

[Houston Texans 10]

Houston - you can't simply add up weeks 1-10 for yardage (rushing and receiving) and divide by 10. If AP rushes for 59 yards, 69 yards, and 88 yards in 3 weeks - that's 5 points, 6 points, and 8 points = 19 points. If you simply add them up THEN divide - you'd have AP for 21.6 points. Of course, this is assuming you don't play in fractional points, which I don't (and I think is pretty standard).

 

Did the numbers again and these are the results:

MJD - 18.4 ppg (1-10), 12.17 ppg (11-17), 34% decrease

Rice - 15.7 ppg (1-10), 13.17 ppg (11-17), 16% decrease

AP - 18 ppg (1-10), 16.17 ppg (11-17), 10% decrease

Gore - 15.5 ppg (1-10), 15.67 ppg (11-17), 1% increase.

 

I apologize for being slightly off on AP, not sure what the difference was, but was pretty spot on with everything else.

 

Case closed.

I know how to add and divide, thanks very much. I didn't do anything with rush yards, receiving yards, TDs. I looked at the FF points each player scored for weeks 1-10 and divided them by the games played. I used 1 pt/10 yards rush, 1 pt/10 yards receiving, and 6 pts/TD, no ppr. The database I used does use decimal scoring, but that doesn't explain the incorrect numbers you have.

MJD

week 1-18.3

week 2- 8.3

week 3-32.7

week 4-10.0

week 5- 5.7

week 6-35.8

week 7-BYE

week 8-29.3

week 9-19.4

week10-20.5

total--180 FF points (divided by 9 games)=20 FF ppg, not 18.4, as you have. Even if you eliminated the decimal scoring, it would be 19.6 ppg, not 18.4.

MJD

week 11-14.4

week 12-11.0

week 13- 8.2

week 14-14.3

week 15-26.0

week 16- 9.8

total---83.7 FF points (divided by 6 games)=14 FF ppg, not 12.17, as you have. If you eliminate the decimal scoring, it would be 13.7 FF ppg.

 

So, 20-14=6 FF ppg difference, which is 30%, not 34%. If you eliminate the decimal scoring, the ppg difference is 5.9 FF ppg, which is still a 30% difference, not 34%.

 

I'm not going to bother doing the other guys AGAIN, because I don't feel like taking the time again to do so. My numbers are correct, I'm not sure where you are getting yours from.

[Houston Texans 10]

I didnt change my argument...its simply been added to.

FYI, when you add to something, you change it.

 

A. Yes for reasons I've stated 50 times Id say MJD wore down. Unless you are really Maurice Jones Drew how the hell do you know how his body is doing?

Unless you are really Jones-Drew, how the hell do you know how his body is doing?

 

B. Jacksonville...yes I do believe they can be worse than last year.

Based on what? Their O-line should be better, Garrard should have a bounce back year (no, he won't be a stud, but I doubt he'll be as bad as last year), and they added some key defensive guys.

C. MJD had 4 TDs his last 7 games

As I noted previously, ADP only had 6 TDs during weeks 11-16, Gore only had 6, and Rice only had 1. Not that big a difference.

D. 8 of MJDs games in 2009 were awful

I'm not sure what you used as your criteria as an "awful" game, but MJD has 7 games of under 14 FF points or less (and two more with 14.3 & 14.4). ADP had 5, Rice had 7, Gore had 6 (plus 2 missed to injury). Hell, even Chris Johnson had 5.

 

Can you dispute the above?

Not disputing your data, just putting it into context, which you seem to be unable to do.

 

Can you dispute that drafting MJD comes with risk?

Every RB comes with risk, but MJD isn't any more risky than any of the other top RBs.

 

Forget about being Forte...nobody will be Forte.

But isn't that what this thread is about?

 

MJD won't be the 25th ranked RB come years end.....but he's going to be picked in the top 3 of every fantasy draft and I believe he will finish the year between 8th - 10th. A guy drafted 2nd or 3rd that finishes 8th-10th is a bust to me. Do you dispute that?

Yes, I do. When you pick in the 1st round, you need that pick to produce like a first round pick. If there are 10 RBs picked in the 1st round, and the RB you picked in the 1st round ends up a top-10 RB, then your 1st round pick wasn't a bust. NO ONE is so accurate that they will be able to pick/predict who will be RB1, RB2, RB3 etc at the end of the season. Calling the 8th ranked RB a "bust" is foolish.

[RosterDoc 0]

FYI, when you add to something, you change it.

You must be nuts. Adding more evidence to an argument changes it? Come on man.

 

Unless you are really Jones-Drew, how the hell do you know how his body is doing?

Thats right...nobody knows. I don't know that it is worn down, and YOU dont know that its not. This is getting ridiculous.

 

 

Based on what? Their O-line should be better, Garrard should have a bounce back year (no, he won't be a stud, but I doubt he'll be as bad as last year), and they added some key defensive guys.

Its my fn opinion. Their O-line should be better? Based on what? Guys with potential? Gimmie a break. How do you know Garrard will bounce back? Who will he throw to besides Sims-Walker?

 

As I noted previously, ADP only had 6 TDs during weeks 11-16, Gore only had 6, and Rice only had 1. Not that big a difference.

Who cares? MJD had 4 TDs in his last 7...I dont want a guy like that as my top 3 fantasy pick.

 

I'm not sure what you used as your criteria as an "awful" game, but MJD has 7 games of under 14 FF points or less (and two more with 14.3 & 14.4). ADP had 5, Rice had 7, Gore had 6 (plus 2 missed to injury). Hell, even Chris Johnson had 5.

What did I use as criteria? Well....

 

Week 2 - 13 carries for 66 yards

Week 4 - 6 carries for 14 yards

Week 5 - 12 carries for 34 yards

Week 11 - 25 carries for 66 yards

Week 12 - 15 carries for 75 yards

Week 13 - 24 carries for 76 yards

Week 14 - 18 carries for 59 yards

Week 16 - 18 carries for 63 yards

 

So the 2 games in the 70s are AVERAGE...the rest are AWFUL.

 

 

 

Not disputing your data, just putting it into context, which you seem to be unable to do.

When put into context its simply saying there are a plethora of red flags to MJDs 2010 season.

 

 

Every RB comes with risk, but MJD isn't any more risky than any of the other top RBs.

Sure he is. Out of the top RBs he's on the worst team.

 

But isn't that what this thread is about?

Yes, I do. When you pick in the 1st round, you need that pick to produce like a first round pick. If there are 10 RBs picked in the 1st round, and the RB you picked in the 1st round ends up a top-10 RB, then your 1st round pick wasn't a bust. NO ONE is so accurate that they will be able to pick/predict who will be RB1, RB2, RB3 etc at the end of the season. Calling the 8th ranked RB a "bust" is foolish.

Of course its not. The difference between 2 and 10 is pretty big. you look at ADP and Johnson and say....theres no way in hell those guys are finishing outside the top 5 come years end. You look at MJD and say...well he SHOULD finish top 5 but.....

 

Case closed. If you want this to go further lets put a side bet on MJD.

 

 

 

[Houston Texans 10]

FYI, when you add to something, you change it.

You must be nuts. Adding more evidence to an argument changes it? Come on man.

You didn't add "evidence," you added a different argument. Your 1st was "he's worn down," your "added" argument was "he's on a shitty team." See, CHANGE.

 

 

Unless you are really Jones-Drew, how the hell do you know how his body is doing?

Thats right...nobody knows. I don't know that it is worn down, and YOU dont know that its not. This is getting ridiculous.

Right, nobody knows, but YOU SAID he was worn down, not me, and as you just admitted, you don't know that.

 

 

Its my fn opinion. Their O-line should be better? Based on what? Guys with potential? Gimmie a break. How do you know Garrard will bounce back? Who will he throw to besides Sims-Walker?It's my fn opinion that they'll be improved. So why does someone have to read and accept your opinion without being allowed to have one of their own?

 

As I noted previously, ADP only had 6 TDs during weeks 11-16, Gore only had 6, and Rice only had 1. Not that big a difference.

Who cares? MJD had 4 TDs in his last 7...I dont want a guy like that as my top 3 fantasy pick.

But you want a RB with 1 TD (Ray Rice) as your top RB?

 

I'm not sure what you used as your criteria as an "awful" game, but MJD has 7 games of under 14 FF points or less (and two more with 14.3 & 14.4). ADP had 5, Rice had 7, Gore had 6 (plus 2 missed to injury). Hell, even Chris Johnson had 5.

What did I use as criteria? Well....

 

Week 2 - 13 carries for 66 yards

Week 4 - 6 carries for 14 yards

Week 5 - 12 carries for 34 yards

Week 11 - 25 carries for 66 yards

Week 12 - 15 carries for 75 yards

Week 13 - 24 carries for 76 yards

Week 14 - 18 carries for 59 yards

Week 16 - 18 carries for 63 yards

 

So the 2 games in the 70s are AVERAGE...the rest are AWFUL.

OK, so under 70 is AWFUL; that's 6 for MJD.

ADP

Week 4 -25 carries for 55 yards

Week 5 -15 carries for 69 yards

Week 7 -18 carries for 69 yards

Week 13-13 carries for 19 yards

Week 15-12 carries for 35 yards

 

Rice

Week 2 - 8 carries for 36 yards

Week 3 -11 carries for 48 yards

Week 5 -14 carries for 69 yards

Week 9 -12 carries for 48 yards

Week 13-14 carries for 54 yards

And 3 AVERAGE games in the 70 yard group

 

Gore

Week 1 -22 carries for 30 yards

Week 3 - 1 carry for 4 yards (injured this week, missed 2 additional games due to injury)

Week 7 -13 carries for 32 yards

Week 11- 7 carries for 59 yards

Week 12-16 carries for 33 yards

Week 13- 9 carries for 25 yards

And 1 AVERAGE game in the 70 yard range

 

So, you don't want MJD because of his 6 "AWFUL" games, but you do want ADP's 5 "AWFUL" games, Rice's 5 "AWFUL" games, or Gore's 6 "AWFUL" games (plus 2 games lost to injury)? That's equally applied logic .

 

 

 

Not disputing your data, just putting it into context, which you seem to be unable to do.

When put into context its simply saying there are a plethora of red flags to MJDs 2010 season.

As I've demonstrated numerous times (and again in response to this post) the same plethora of red flags should be raised for ADP, Rice, & Gore, then.

 

Every RB comes with risk, but MJD isn't any more risky than any of the other top RBs.

Sure he is. Out of the top RBs he's on the worst team.

True, he's on a bad team, but it didn't stop him from being the #3 RB last year, now did it?

 

Of course its not. The difference between 2 and 10 is pretty big. you look at ADP and Johnson and say....theres no way in hell those guys are finishing outside the top 5 come years end. You look at MJD and say...well he SHOULD finish top 5 but.....

I never said the difference between 2 and 10 isn't big. I responded to you saying MJD finishing between 8-10 RB and being picked with the 3rd pick would make him a bust. And, if you bothered to read the whole thread, I've said several times that I expect Chris Johnson to finish worse than his owners will expect. I could easily see MJD finishing higher than Johnson at the end of the year.

 

Case closed. If you want this to go further lets put a side bet on MJD.

You're right, case closed. Every time you've tried to show how MJD is a risk, has red flags, will bust, is worn down, has more "awful" games than other top RBs, etc, I've proved you wrong.

 

Like I'm going to make a bet with someone I don't know on an Internet message board. What are we supposed to do, promise to pay up when you lose?

[RosterDoc 0]

You've contradicted yourself numerous times and keep trying to pull up stats to prove MJD will have this amazing year...problem is they don't exist as much as you want them to.

 

Anyone who knows football will tell you MJD has red flags in 2010.

 

For the sake of the readers I'm ending this debate. When the Jags go 3-13 and MJD has a crappy fantasy playoffs I'll save a smile just for you.

 

I'll be happy to debate MJD every hour of the day if you want to privately message me...I'm all for it champ, but lets spare readers from your political psycho babble.

 

 

 

[Houston Texans 10]

You've contradicted yourself numerous times and keep trying to pull up stats to prove MJD will have this amazing year...problem is they don't exist as much as you want them to.

 

Anyone who knows football will tell you MJD has red flags in 2010.

 

For the sake of the readers I'm ending this debate. When the Jags go 3-13 and MJD has a crappy fantasy playoffs I'll save a smile just for you.

 

I'll be happy to debate MJD every hour of the day if you want to privately message me...I'm all for it champ, but lets spare readers from your political psycho babble.

I defy to to show me one time how I've contradicted myself, or to show me one time in this thread where I said MJD will have an amazing year. You won't be able to do it, because it didn't happen.

 

Please, let's end it. I don't want to read any more of your posts saying MJD has red flags and ignoring the exact same red flags for other RBs. I don't want to read any more of your posts saying that MJD wore down and then ignoring the fact that other RBs experience the same kind of down games. I don't want to read any more of your posts saying that MJD isn't a top RB because he has "awful" games and ignoring the facts that show other top RBs have the same amount of "awful" games.

 

So, let's end it. You have your opinion, and I have my mine.

[RosterDoc 0]

We agree to disagree

 

I defy to to show me one time how I've contradicted myself, or to show me one time in this thread where I said MJD will have an amazing year. You won't be able to do it, because it didn't happen.

 

Please, let's end it. I don't want to read any more of your posts saying MJD has red flags and ignoring the exact same red flags for other RBs. I don't want to read any more of your posts saying that MJD wore down and then ignoring the fact that other RBs experience the same kind of down games. I don't want to read any more of your posts saying that MJD isn't a top RB because he has "awful" games and ignoring the facts that show other top RBs have the same amount of "awful" games.

 

So, let's end it. You have your opinion, and I have my mine.

 

 

 

[ricanrockers 39]

I don't know.......ask Cara

 

 

Sooo True!!

 

[stonewall 647]

Personally, I enjoyed the debate (remnant of fond college debate team memories, I suppose). There is obviously a vast difference in terms of strategies involved between oral and written argument, and I must confess that all three of the main characters involved here (Houston Texans, RosterDoc, and kmbryant09) showed above average ability in written debate. As is usually not the case on impersonal web boards, nobody digressed to unintelligent name-calling and insult, but stuck to the "facts", as they perceived, calculated, and understood them, under the general debate topic: "Will MJD, as a consensus top 3 or 4 pick this year in fantasy drafts, vastly underperform his ADP, not to mention the expectations of his fantasy owners; why or why not?"

 

I would gladly and impartially pick a "winner" here but, unfortunately, am unable. It is clearly a draw. The reasons for this conclusion are as follows:

 

Houston Texans, although at a disadvantage numerically, generally showed more poise, was slightly better grammatically, and demonstrated a bit more "gentleman doggedness" in keeping to the core of his argument throughout his written communication. He (or she) has a keen ability to drag his opponent back into the "frame" of the debate if and when they attempt to alter course somewhat.

 

 

RosterDoc and kmbryant09, although slightly bested in the tangible aspects of debate, pulled back even through the ever-important intangibles. Mainly, they left the neutral reader (in my case) with the impression that they more heartily believed the legitimacy and validity of their side (whether true or not...impression is 50% of debate) and, as a result, presented an ever-so-slighty more intriguing argument. RosterDoc landed one final glancing blow when he offered continued private debate that was left unaccepted.

 

All parties involved ended the debate equitably upon realization that no further progress could be attained. Good show....and I will now watch MJD's season more closely to see who had the better fantasy grasp.

[RosterDoc 0]

Very well said.

 

We'll be here all week, be sure to tip your waitress

 

Personally, I enjoyed the debate (remnant of fond college debate team memories, I suppose). There is obviously a vast difference in terms of strategies involved between oral and written argument, and I must confess that all three of the main characters involved here (Houston Texans, RosterDoc, and kmbryant09) showed above average ability in written debate. As is usually not the case on impersonal web boards, nobody digressed to unintelligent name-calling and insult, but stuck to the "facts", as they perceived, calculated, and understood them, under the general debate topic: "Will MJD, as a consensus top 3 or 4 pick this year in fantasy drafts, vastly underperform his ADP, not to mention the expectations of his fantasy owners; why or why not?"

 

I would gladly and impartially pick a "winner" here but, unfortunately, am unable. It is clearly a draw. The reasons for this conclusion are as follows:

 

Houston Texans, although at a disadvantage numerically, generally showed more poise, was slightly better grammatically, and demonstrated a bit more "gentleman doggedness" in keeping to the core of his argument throughout his written communication. He (or she) has a keen ability to drag his opponent back into the "frame" of the debate if and when they attempt to alter course somewhat.

 

 

RosterDoc and kmbryant09, although slightly bested in the tangible aspects of debate, pulled back even through the ever-important intangibles. Mainly, they left the neutral reader (in my case) with the impression that they more heartily believed the legitimacy and validity of their side (whether true or not...impression is 50% of debate) and, as a result, presented an ever-so-slighty more intriguing argument. RosterDoc landed one final glancing blow when he offered continued private debate that was left unaccepted.

 

All parties involved ended the debate equitably upon realization that no further progress could be attained. Good show....and I will now watch MJD's season more closely to see who had the better fantasy grasp.

 

 

 

[Tango 0]

Personally, I enjoyed the debate (remnant of fond college debate team memories, I suppose). There is obviously a vast difference in terms of strategies involved between oral and written argument, and I must confess that all three of the main characters involved here (Houston Texans, RosterDoc, and kmbryant09) showed above average ability in written debate. As is usually not the case on impersonal web boards, nobody digressed to unintelligent name-calling and insult, but stuck to the "facts", as they perceived, calculated, and understood them, under the general debate topic: "Will MJD, as a consensus top 3 or 4 pick this year in fantasy drafts, vastly underperform his ADP, not to mention the expectations of his fantasy owners; why or why not?"

 

I would gladly and impartially pick a "winner" here but, unfortunately, am unable. It is clearly a draw. The reasons for this conclusion are as follows:

 

Houston Texans, although at a disadvantage numerically, generally showed more poise, was slightly better grammatically, and demonstrated a bit more "gentleman doggedness" in keeping to the core of his argument throughout his written communication. He (or she) has a keen ability to drag his opponent back into the "frame" of the debate if and when they attempt to alter course somewhat.

 

 

RosterDoc and kmbryant09, although slightly bested in the tangible aspects of debate, pulled back even through the ever-important intangibles. Mainly, they left the neutral reader (in my case) with the impression that they more heartily believed the legitimacy and validity of their side (whether true or not...impression is 50% of debate) and, as a result, presented an ever-so-slighty more intriguing argument. RosterDoc landed one final glancing blow when he offered continued private debate that was left unaccepted.

 

All parties involved ended the debate equitably upon realization that no further progress could be attained. Good show....and I will now watch MJD's season more closely to see who had the better fantasy grasp.

 

Are you a debate coach? There is one in my league.

[kmbryant09 1]

I think I'll backtrack on my statement about you. I actually think you are making strong arguments, but you seem to be arguing something slightly different than what this debate started as.

 

If you are arguing that MJD is more likely to disappoint than other top 3 picks, I think your arguments are valid. You can make arguments against that as well, but you can always do that.

 

The original debate with rosterdoc was centered around MJD being this year's Forte (meaning he'd totally flop, not just disapoint based on draft position) because he wore down physically last year.

 

I don't think the facts support MJD physically wearing down, but they do show that he didn't perform as well for FFB playoffs....much different than wearing down.

 

The whole point of contention that started (you joined late, after the rosterdoc started changing his argument) was centered around physically wearing down vs. not scoring as many FFB points. This is where I think rosterdoc gets killed in the argument. The only way his arguments appear valid, IMO, is if he starts backtracking and only stating that MJD will dissapoint as a top 3 pick.

 

Anyway, I thought I'd just throw my thoughts in because I thought the debate was fun and figured I would declare a winner

Why thank you - pretty honest answer.

 

At risk of stirring something else up - should we really care about the difference between wearing down "physically" and wearing down "fantasy-wise"? I could understand MJD's dropoff if he was playing Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and the Jets to finish the season, but that wasn't really the case. I could understand if their starting QB went down and their offense fell apart, but that also wasn't the case.

 

Does anyone really know if MJD wore down physically? Probably - but only people in the Jacksonville locker room. I merely look at it as it relates to me - he wore down in fantasy leagues. Whether or not it was attributable to physically wearing down or not, I'm not concerned with...because if it was/wasn't PHYSICALLY wearing down - 2010 is a new season.