Who Doesn't Like CJIII @ #1?

[Boston Three Party 6]

While watching Thug life/Predator Lynch's twin brother on the ESPY's I couldn't help wonder if anyone else was questioning taking him first.

 

There's always the Michael Turner downfall from 300 carry season train of thought (which I'm not worried about) but mainly his contract issue, no OTA's, no clue on his conditioning, and if hes reporting to camp any time late (further conditioning issues) for injury prone games.

 

Meanwhile, AP and Rice look even better to me - AP working on fumbling issues (gulp) and running on "instinct" (we'll see) and Rice healing his hip up. (As for MJD, wouldn't take him first anyways)

 

Thoughts?

[Chargersin08 0]

While watching Thug life/Predator Lynch's twin brother on the ESPY's I couldn't help wonder if anyone else was questioning taking him first.

 

There's always the Michael Turner downfall from 300 carry season train of thought (which I'm not worried about) but mainly his contract issue, no OTA's, no clue on his conditioning, and if hes reporting to camp any time late (further conditioning issues) for injury prone games.

 

Meanwhile, AP and Rice look even better to me - AP working on fumbling issues (gulp) and running on "instinct" (we'll see) and Rice healing his hip up. (As for MJD, wouldn't take him first anyways)

 

Thoughts?

I'd feel somewhat safer with AP. I don't see how you could draft Rice over CJ, though.

[Boston Three Party 6]

I'd feel somewhat safer with AP. I don't see how you could draft Rice over CJ, though.

 

Agreed - I don't think I ever would - just crossed my mind there.

[tanatastic 2,062]

Its AP all day for me. Anytime someone has a magical season it comes back to earth the next year and sometimes even crashes. AP on the other hand has had only great seasons in the nfl and could even do better, while I think CJ has had his best season.

 

This following statement is not meant to be racist in any way shape or form, only a little judgemental. Its not a color statement, its an attitude statement...I think when CJ gets his fat contract soon he will lose that killer instinct that only money can provide. Its the inate power that pushes u to break that last tackle, go for the extra yard or push the pile an inch further. Watching him, I notice he is super thugged out and "ghetto" and it seems obvious that being rich is his main goal (who doesnt think that? Its def my main goal.) and once he achievs that he will go on autopilot or just simply not have to risk his body as much.

 

If anything, Rice seems poised to have a better season than CJ, look at the situations last year. "hes talented, catches well and can be explosive, but lendale/willis will steal carries so ill avoid him with a top pick." That was the universal sentiment for both guys and still is for rice to an extent. And im not even a rice fan, I just see the writing on the wall. Im, taking AP with the first pick and if I get second im taking CJ and trading him for rice+more.

[jdon 28]

Its AP all day for me. Anytime someone has a magical season it comes back to earth the next year and sometimes even crashes. AP on the other hand has had only great seasons in the nfl and could even do better, while I think CJ has had his best season.

 

This following statement is not meant to be racist in any way shape or form, only a little judgemental. Its not a color statement, its an attitude statement...I think when CJ gets his fat contract soon he will lose that killer instinct that only money can provide. Its the inate power that pushes u to break that last tackle, go for the extra yard or push the pile an inch further. Watching him, I notice he is super thugged out and "ghetto" and it seems obvious that being rich is his main goal (who doesnt think that? Its def my main goal.) and once he achievs that he will go on autopilot or just simply not have to risk his body as much.

 

If anything, Rice seems poised to have a better season than CJ, look at the situations last year. "hes talented, catches well and can be explosive, but lendale/willis will steal carries so ill avoid him with a top pick." That was the universal sentiment for both guys and still is for rice to an extent. And im not even a rice fan, I just see the writing on the wall. Im, taking AP with the first pick and if I get second im taking CJ and trading him for rice+more.

 

 

I agree with this. And I have ADP number 1. I don't blame anyone for taking CJ3 at the number one spot but for me I would rather have the surest sure thing... Same reason I would have Manning as the number 1 quarterback...

jdon

[WhiteWonder 2,448]

ADP is my number 1 due to having done it longer. He is the safest bet of the big 4 backs and on the best team.

[dats007 1]

I'd feel somewhat safer with AP. I don't see how you could draft Rice over CJ, though.

 

Only two players finished the 2009 season with over 2000 all purpose yards. Obviously, Chris Johnson is one of those two. The other was Ray Rice.

 

After everything that was written in this post about Chris Johnson's hold-out, and how it could affect his conditioning, timing, etc., I don't see how anybody could so easily dismiss Ray Rice as the top running back in the draft. Ray Rice is more versatile than Adrian Peterson ((speaking of AD, there is still no guarantees that Brett Favre will be back (although it looks like he will) which would be a significant blow to the value of Peterson) and is the most dynamic player on a team poised to make a Super Bowl run in 2010.

 

2009 Comparison

 

RuAtt

Ray Rice: 254

Adrian Peterson: 314 (I'm not a believer in the curse of 300)

RuYds

Rice: 1339

Peterson: 1383

Notice that Rice rushed for only 44 yard less than Peterson on 60 less carries!

AvgYds/Att

Rice: 5.3

Peterson: 4.4

Receptions

Rice: 78

Peterson: 43

RecYds

Rice: 702

Peterson: 436

[dats007 1]

ADP is my number 1 due to having done it longer. He is the safest bet of the big 4 backs and on the best team.

 

Define "best team." I think that we saw the best we could ever expect to see from the Vikings last year and now, while Ray Rice and the Ravens prepare themselves for a championship run (after making the necessary additions to solidify their team, albeit they could have used some youth on their defense), the Titans are preparing to enter training camp without their best player and the Vikings still don't know who their starting quarterback will be. From a fantasy perspective, Ray Rice seems to be in the most stable situation, which should translate into him being able to hit the ground running once the regular season starts.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I think Peterson could have an "off" year and still finish in the top 5 and justify his position. I'm not on the Chris Johnson bandwagon this year, I think he's going to come back to earth and quickly. I still think that he'll be a top 10 back, but I have a hard convincing myself to pick him at #1. And I believe it enough to say I would probably not take Johnson with any of the top 3 picks.

[casper87 0]

Only two players finished the 2009 season with over 2000 all purpose yards. Obviously, Chris Johnson is one of those two. The other was Ray Rice.

 

After everything that was written in this post about Chris Johnson's hold-out, and how it could affect his conditioning, timing, etc., I don't see how anybody could so easily dismiss Ray Rice as the top running back in the draft. Ray Rice is more versatile than Adrian Peterson ((speaking of AD, there is still no guarantees that Brett Favre will be back (although it looks like he will) which would be a significant blow to the value of Peterson) and is the most dynamic player on a team poised to make a Super Bowl run in 2010.

 

2009 Comparison

 

RuAtt

Ray Rice: 254

Adrian Peterson: 314 (I'm not a believer in the curse of 300)

RuYds

Rice: 1339

Peterson: 1383

Notice that Rice rushed for only 44 yard less than Peterson on 60 less carries!

AvgYds/Att

Rice: 5.3

Peterson: 4.4

Receptions

Rice: 78

Peterson: 43

RecYds

Rice: 702

Peterson: 436

 

You make a good case for Rice here--please stop talking about him. I don't want his stock going up anymore as I want this stud on my team. I must disagree with you on your statement about Favre being back and that being a blow to AP. This is just not true. Without Favre, I bet they will stack the box and make any other

QB beat them with their arm. With Favre, Defenses must guard against the pass which definitely open up the running game to some extent. AP might get more touches without Favre, but I would fear injury and/or the 8 in the box defenses he would see.

[stonewall 647]

CJ's talent and potential are undeniable. However, there is one thing about him that bothers me....and it has nothing to do with football, but yet everything to do with it.

 

The kid is not that bright. Have you ever witnessed him in an interview? Trainwreck. Why does this matter? Well, perhaps it doest't.....unless he is dumb enough to totally jack up his contract and miss time, or do something completely stupid off the field, resulting in the same schenario.

 

Chris Johnson is a stud, but his ignorance makes me a bit nervous....for a #1 or #2 draft day pick.

[WhiteWonder 2,448]

Define "best team." I think that we saw the best we could ever expect to see from the Vikings last year and now, while Ray Rice and the Ravens prepare themselves for a championship run (after making the necessary additions to solidify their team, albeit they could have used some youth on their defense), the Titans are preparing to enter training camp without their best player and the Vikings still don't know who their starting quarterback will be. From a fantasy perspective, Ray Rice seems to be in the most stable situation, which should translate into him being able to hit the ground running once the regular season starts.

 

best is defined as being of the highest quality, excellence or standing.

 

its just my opinion that the Vikings are the best of the 4 teams the consensus top 4 backs play for. and yes, this is assuming Favre plays again. I think we assume he plays unless we hear otherwise (where as last year he "retired" from the Jets so we could assume he was retired until we heard otherwise).

 

also, its not like Peterson needs Favre to have a great year. I seem to recall 2 very nice seasons before Favre joined Minny. Will he all of a sudden forget how to run without Favre under center?

 

As far as Rice is concerned, how is he in the most stable situation? New toys for Flacco could eat into his receptions and McGahee is still on the roster as a potential TD vulture. If anything, MJD is in the most stable situation in terms of change from 2009.

 

for what its worth i would gladly take Ray Rice on my team but if i had the #1 overall pick I take ADP. How can you argue against a guy who has the following resume over 3 seasons

1600 total yards 13td's

1880 total yards 10td's

1820 total yards 18td's

[dats007 1]

You make a good case for Rice here--please stop talking about him. I don't want his stock going up anymore as I want this stud on my team. I must disagree with you on your statement about Favre being back and that being a blow to AP. This is just not true. Without Favre, I bet they will stack the box and make any other

QB beat them with their arm. With Favre, Defenses must guard against the pass which definitely open up the running game to some extent. AP might get more touches without Favre, but I would fear injury and/or the 8 in the box defenses he would see.

 

Casper, I agree with you completely. Without Brett Favre (and also Chester Taylor), I think that Adrian Peterson will see a decline in production. Sorry if that wasn't clear in my original post.

 

best is defined as being of the highest quality, excellence or standing.

 

its just my opinion that the Vikings are the best of the 4 teams the consensus top 4 backs play for. and yes, this is assuming Favre plays again. I think we assume he plays unless we hear otherwise (where as last year he "retired" from the Jets so we could assume he was retired until we heard otherwise).

 

also, its not like Peterson needs Favre to have a great year. I seem to recall 2 very nice seasons before Favre joined Minny. Will he all of a sudden forget how to run without Favre under center?

 

As far as Rice is concerned, how is he in the most stable situation? New toys for Flacco could eat into his receptions and McGahee is still on the roster as a potential TD vulture. If anything, MJD is in the most stable situation in terms of change from 2009.

 

for what its worth i would gladly take Ray Rice on my team but if i had the #1 overall pick I take ADP. How can you argue against a guy who has the following resume over 3 seasons

1600 total yards 13td's

1880 total yards 10td's

1820 total yards 18td's

 

It's hard to argue with your research. Adrian Peterson has been an incredibly productive running back over the past three years. But it shouldn't be unreasonable to consider the amount of wear-and-tear his body has taken in order to produce such gaudy numbers. That, added to the uncertainty of whether or not Brett Favre will be back in '10 (he'll probably play) or can stay healthy an entire season again, should also be considered when projecting an upcoming season. I would be a little worried (for all the Vikings skill players!) if Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfells were forced to take the majority of the snaps for the Vikings this year.

 

Obviously, the stability aspect comes into play the more Brett Favre remains a question mark. I wouldn't wish the "stability" of the Jacksonville Jaguars upon even my worst enemy.

[Corporal Punishment 0]

Although I would also probably take ADP over CJ, everyone else here seems to be skeptical of the Chris Johnson hype, so I'll try playing the Devil's advocate and plead his case

Johnson relies much more on his speed than his strength and would rather outrun or outmaneuver the defense than plow over them. While he is effective breaking tackles or blasting through the line in short yardage situations, his instincts are to avoid the tackle.

Peterson, on the other hand, often seems to seek out contact and will just as often run over the defenders than around them. He is, therefore, more injury-prone and thus a greater risk than CJ and may prove to be less durable over the long term. A dynasty team owner in particular might want to think about that.

I'm honestly not sure I buy my own argument here, but a reasonable case can be made.

[dats007 1]

 

2009 Comparison

 

RuAtt

Ray Rice: 254

Adrian Peterson: 314 (I'm not a believer in the curse of 300)

RuYds

Rice: 1339

Peterson: 1383

Notice that Rice rushed for only 44 yard less than Peterson on 60 less carries!

AvgYds/Att

Rice: 5.3

Peterson: 4.4

Now if you go back and give Rice the additional 60 carries that Peterson got, and assume that Rice averaged his same YPC, he'd have rushed for 1669 yards in 2009. Or 286 more RuYds than Peterson. If you subtracted the 60 carries that Peterson had that Rice didn't, and assume his same average YPC, Peterson would have only rushed for only 1117 yards. Of course, none of this really matters for 2010, but it's still kinda interesting. Kinda.

Receptions

Rice: 78

Peterson: 43

RecYds

Rice: 702

Peterson: 436

 

 

Edited the commentary.

[WhiteWonder 2,448]

It's hard to argue with your research. Adrian Peterson has been an incredibly productive running back over the past three years. But it shouldn't be unreasonable to consider the amount of wear-and-tear his body has taken in order to produce such gaudy numbers. That, added to the uncertainty of whether or not Brett Favre will be back in '10 (he'll probably play) or can stay healthy an entire season again, should also be considered when projecting an upcoming season. I would be a little worried (for all the Vikings skill players!) if Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfells were forced to take the majority of the snaps for the Vikings this year.

 

Obviously, the stability aspect comes into play the more Brett Favre remains a question mark. I wouldn't wish the "stability" of the Jacksonville Jaguars upon even my worst enemy.

 

forgive me but i just don't get it. Now Peterson's wear and tear is the issue? he has averaged 305 carrier per year. That is hardly alot. And only had 314 in 2009. He has never hit 370 carries (the actual "curse" number)

 

Peterson put up great numbers with T-Jack already. Why couldn't he do it again? I mean granted, the ideal situation is for Favre to play and play as well as he did last year but ADP has proven not to need that to succeed.

[Boston Three Party 6]

Good points all over man.

 

I still love ADP @ 1. If I am in the 3 hole - I'm probably going Rice. I love MJD but god damn - that o-line is suspect. It's a coin flip!

[Turf CamelToe 1]

ADP. I think losing Chester helps ADP in PPR leagues and he has done fine without Brett. ADP gets my vote, but will be happy with either since I am picking #2.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

I'm torn. On the one hand, CJIII is the Titans entire offense. That's it. There is nobody behind him worth warm spit. I don't see Vince and the passing game stealing carries anytime soon either.

 

On the other, he strikes me as the type of back who, if even nicked up slightly, may not be very effective. His game is speed, and if he gets even slightly injured, it could be trouble. He has been amazingly injury free thus far, but that never lasts forever.

 

I wouldn't worry about a new contract making him complacent THIS year. As a homer, who is a sports talk junkie, a new deal is not going to happen. He may get a 2mil escalator, but that's it.

 

I'll probably still take him #1, because frankly, no other back in the league has such a balance of talent and opportunity. But there are risk factors there.

[KSB2424 3,096]

The only thing stopping me from drafting CJ number one is the ongoing contract issue thing. The longer that lingers the more I am inclined to go another direction. However if they get that settled before the pre-season games, then I will not pass on him if he is available to me.

 

The guy is the most dynamic runner in the league. And it's not as if he came out of nowhere last year. He's been that since he set foot on an NFL field. He's a special player and I don't pass on special players like that. I understand why some would (risk), but not me, not with this guy.

[BoltAddiction 0]

It's difficult to downgrade CJ, but I find it funny that we often look to the prior year as our gaurantee of the next year's performance, instead of looking to the prior trends. History indicates a 100% chance of "bust" (term used loosely). There have been five prior 2000 yard rushers. Three of whom are Hall of Famers.

 

Each averaged 365 carries and 25 receptions in their 2,000 yard campaign. Each scored double digit touchdowns for a total of 72.

 

Follow-up year.

 

O.J. 14 games, 1125 yards, 3 touchdowns. YPC dropped from 6.0 to 4.2

Dickerson 14 games, 1234 yards, 12 touchdowns. YPC dropped from 5.6 to 4.2

Sanders 16 games, 1491 yards, 4 touchdowns. YPC dropped from 6.1 to 4.3

Terrell Davis 4 games, 211 yards, 2 touchdowns. YPC dropped from 5.1 to 3.1

Jamal Lewis 12 games, 1006 yards, 7 touchdowns. YPC dropped from 5.2 to 4.3

 

Total TDs = dropped from 72 to 28.

Total games played dropped from 80 to 58

Avg YPC dropped 5.6 to 4.0

Total yards (excluding Davis) dropped from 8,000+ to 4,850

 

Johnson ran 358 times, caught 50 and averaged 5.6 ypc with 16 TDs.

 

The trend suggests that CJ only lasts 12 games, scores 6 TDs and runs for 1,200 yards.

 

Add in contract issues, less wear and tear on Peterson (and a more dynamic offense), and I have Peterson (and MJD) miles ahead of Johnson.

[WhiteWonder 2,448]

any of the consensus top 4 backs are fine and cases can be made for all of them.

 

i just prefer to go with the safest option. would i default to a less spectacular player just because they are safe? no. But in this case I see no reason to label Chris Johnson as more spectacular or dynamic than ADP.

 

I already posted ADP's numbers over 3 years.

 

so for me its just the desire to take a great RB, on a great offense, who has already done it for 3 consecutive years.

[Kent 228]

AP didn't scare me when I had to play against him last year.

 

When I had to play the guy in our league who had CJ...I was afraid he'd kill me...and he did.

 

CJ is so versatile. He's what people thought Reggie Bush was going to be. CJ is the real deal. His upside is bigger than AP. I think its a no brainer.

[jocstrap 8]

Tell me how many rb's have the speed of CJIII? NONE

 

The guy changes the angles on the field. Rice, ADP, and MJD do not have this feature. It's so hard to compare CJ2k to any past or present running back.

 

Speed is his thing, and he's still young enough to have it left in the tank IMO. 3 years from now - eh, not too sure.

 

He's had 2 successful years in a row. Why would anyone doubt #3? Ray Rice is not going to score a 90 yard td for you either.

 

I'm taking CJ2k even if there are the doubters

[jocstrap 8]

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoUr82vUx60