6pts TD for QB

[cooolbreeze 0]

I've always worked with the theory that you wait to take a QB until later in the draft, thinking that there wasn't much difference (outside of maybe the top two) between the top 4 and the QBs 5-12. Last year I got Schaub in the 7th. The year before I took Warner in the later rounds. This has worked out great for me.

 

This year, I'm a little more nervous about waiting to take a QB later because the points in my league have increased to 6 points for a TD (up from 4). I also think the difference between the top 4 or 5 QBs and the rest of the pack has increased.

 

I have the 3rd pick so I'm taking MJD. When it comes back to me in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, I expect Brees and Rogers to be gone. Its possible that Peyton is gone too. So, that leaves Romo, Brady and Schaub and top options available. IMO those 5 are head and shoulders above the rest of the QBs.

 

If I don't take one of those three with either my 2nd or 3rd round pick, I very well may be dealing with the likes of a Eli/Cutler type QB leading my fantasy squad. I'm worried that QB run due to this rule change may even see that level of QB gone by the time it gets back to me in the 4th.

 

Am I making too much of the point change or should I try to grab a stud in the 2nd or 3rd round?

[jgcrawfish 232]

they move up 2 * x (x being the # of TD's they'll throw this year). Seriously, it's supply and demand. If it's a 10 teamer and 5-6 qb's are gone early, you can afford to wait...because you'll still have your pick of the litter on what's left. Unless I get a tremendous value of someone falling, i don't start looking until my RB and WR core is built out. Cutler/Kolb/Rivers/Flacco and a backup Roethlisberger and a loaded WR/RB core is better than having to overpay at the end of a QB run.

[fantasymind 1]

While the change to six points certainly increases the point scoring potential from the Qb position, relative value remains the same regardless of whether your Qb is awarded 4, 6 or 100 points per TD...You need to decide if you feel that Romo/Schaub/Brady, who you believe you will need to take in the second, will drastically outperform the Qb you could take in the 4th or 5th...Your past selections of Schaub and Warner should illustrate that, if you choose wisely, you can get almost equal value from a later round pick as you can from a second rounder---you just need to decide how confident you are in those mid round guys like Eli/Cutler/Kolb etc...Personally, I think that the Qb position is deep with upside this season and believe there will be at least one or two guys taken late that end up in the top 6...I have the tenth pick in a ppr that awards 6 pts for passing tds and I plan to go wr-wr and will only take a Qb if Brady or Romo make it to me at the 3/4 turn (which I do not expect that they will)...Otherwise, I plan to wait until 5/6 at the earliest and try to take two of Eli/Cutler/Kolb/Flacco and hope that one of them hit...

[CornKobb 48]

they move up 2 * x (x being the # of TD's they'll throw this year). Seriously, it's supply and demand. If it's a 10 teamer and 5-6 qb's are gone early, you can afford to wait...because you'll still have your pick of the litter on what's left. Unless I get a tremendous value of someone falling, i don't start looking until my RB and WR core is built out. Cutler/Kolb/Rivers/Flacco and a backup Roethlisberger and a loaded WR/RB core is better than having to overpay at the end of a QB run.

 

my thoughts exactly.

[p00h 85]

While the change to six points certainly increases the point scoring potential from the Qb position, relative value remains the same regardless of whether your Qb is awarded 4, 6 or 100 points per TD...You need to decide if you feel that Romo/Schaub/Brady, who you believe you will need to take in the second, will drastically outperform the Qb you could take in the 4th or 5th...Your past selections of Schaub and Warner should illustrate that, if you choose wisely, you can get almost equal value from a later round pick as you can from a second rounder---you just need to decide how confident you are in those mid round guys like Eli/Cutler/Kolb etc...Personally, I think that the Qb position is deep with upside this season and believe there will be at least one or two guys taken late that end up in the top 6...I have the tenth pick in a ppr that awards 6 pts for passing tds and I plan to go wr-wr and will only take a Qb if Brady or Romo make it to me at the 3/4 turn (which I do not expect that they will)...Otherwise, I plan to wait until 5/6 at the earliest and try to take two of Eli/Cutler/Kolb/Flacco and hope that one of them hit...

 

 

dingdingding...

 

its all about the variance from #1 qb to #2 qb to #3 qb etcetcetc, as opposed to the fact that qbs are getting more pts so they're more valuable across the board. Especially if you're talking about starting 1 qb per team...

[jgcrawfish 232]

While the change to six points certainly increases the point scoring potential from the Qb position, relative value remains the same regardless of whether your Qb is awarded 4, 6 or 100 points per TD...You need to decide if you feel that Romo/Schaub/Brady, who you believe you will need to take in the second, will drastically outperform the Qb you could take in the 4th or 5th...Your past selections of Schaub and Warner should illustrate that, if you choose wisely, you can get almost equal value from a later round pick as you can from a second rounder---you just need to decide how confident you are in those mid round guys like Eli/Cutler/Kolb etc...Personally, I think that the Qb position is deep with upside this season and believe there will be at least one or two guys taken late that end up in the top 6...I have the tenth pick in a ppr that awards 6 pts for passing tds and I plan to go wr-wr and will only take a Qb if Brady or Romo make it to me at the 3/4 turn (which I do not expect that they will)...Otherwise, I plan to wait until 5/6 at the earliest and try to take two of Eli/Cutler/Kolb/Flacco and hope that one of them hit...

 

this is outstanding advice, other than i really hope to get one of cutler/kold and try to get maybe Roethlisberger as the backup after he gets off suspension. But you're absolutely right in the idea of relative value....they may move in comparison to other positions, but they remain the same against each other. Last year I took Schaub under the premise of finding a QB I thought would be successful, the year before I took Cutler and Rivers when both had breakout years. I think Cutler (bounce back under Martz) and Kolb in particular, and Flacco to a lesser extent, are ready to make the leap.

[Turducken 0]

6pt TDs does make elite QBs slightly more valuable.

 

If QB A throws 40 TDs and QB B throws 30:

 

4pt TDs:

QB A: 160 pts

QB B: 120 pts

 

A difference of 40 points

 

6pt TDs:

QB A: 240 pts

QB B: 180 pts

 

A difference of 60 points

 

It's not a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless.

[fantasymind 1]

6pt TDs does make elite QBs slightly more valuable.

 

If QB A throws 40 TDs and QB B throws 30:

 

4pt TDs:

QB A: 160 pts

QB B: 120 pts

 

A difference of 40 points

 

6pt TDs:

QB A: 240 pts

QB B: 180 pts

 

A difference of 60 points

 

It's not a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless.

 

 

Agreed, but the example you are giving does not necessarily apply to those who are not planning on taking a first round Qb...Using last season as the example, the top three Td producing Qbs that are returning this season (Brees, Rodgers, and Manning, all three of whom will probably go mid-late first/early second) had 36,35 and 33 Tds, respectively...After them, there were 8 Qbs who threw between 29 and 26 Tds, a relatively small variance between this group. The difference between these 29 Td Qb and the 26 Td Qb in a 4 pt league is just 12 pts (116 vs 104) and the difference with 6pts is 18 pts (174 vs 156), or, in either format about a 1 pt. per game difference. I think this illustrates nicely that building a core group of Rbs and Wrs and then finding that 26 td Qb later can be as good or better a strategy than using a second or third pick to grab the 29 Td Qb...

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

With 6 points for quarterback, it makes the postion the most important. Just to realize this, put it up to 10 points per touchdown. You'll see that having a top 3 to 5 quarterback is a must then. I like the 4 point level and am glad that yahoo went to that in their default position last year. The quarterback is still important, but not quite so vital.

[cooolbreeze 0]

6pt TDs does make elite QBs slightly more valuable.

 

If QB A throws 40 TDs and QB B throws 30:

 

4pt TDs:

QB A: 160 pts

QB B: 120 pts

 

A difference of 40 points

 

6pt TDs:

QB A: 240 pts

QB B: 180 pts

 

A difference of 60 points

 

It's not a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless.

 

 

This is the OP. This post above is what I'm worried about. Thanks everyone for the opinions, I'm still not sure what I'm going to do but, I have some time to do some more mock and a some more research to see how I feel about the flacco/cutler/palmer group as a QB vs Romo/Schaub.

 

Any other opinions out there?

[Gepetto 994]

Kolb, Favre, or Cutler will be plenty good in 6 pt TD leagues.

[timozbuck 4]

This is the OP. This post above is what I'm worried about. Thanks everyone for the opinions, I'm still not sure what I'm going to do but, I have some time to do some more mock and a some more research to see how I feel about the flacco/cutler/palmer group as a QB vs Romo/Schaub.

 

Any other opinions out there?

 

 

I'm in a similar situation that you are. With the 3rd pick, I'm taking MJD, then looking at a QB in the 3rd, unless someone of extraordinary value falls. My league gives 6 pts per TD (not that big of a deal IMO) but rewards 0.25/completion and 5 pt bonus at 300,350, and 400 yds passing. I think these bonuses tilt the scales for the top 5-6 QB's.

 

W/O these bonuses and completion pts, I would most likely pass on a QB until the 6th-7th round if I were you.

[KSB2424 3,085]

High Scoring in one position does effect where that position is drafted. It always bugs me when the (it's relative to the position) crowd chimes in. Of course it's relative to the position and the variance between each QB compared to another. Duh, that's fantasy football 101. But the secondary point that Turducken alluded to is that when a position is a high scoring position (6pt passing TD's) then the said variance between QB's becomes larger. Which means the tier dropoffs are larger, which means it might pay to have a good QB over the 10th ranked average one (dependent on your projections).

[djrockstar 0]

A rising tide lifts all boats.

[TimHauck 1,843]

Taking a QB so early still scares me. I was in a league last year that was 10 yards per point for all yards, so I had Brees ranked as the #1 overall player, and I actually landed him with the 10th pick partially because some of the people didn't look at the scoring system. But I spent the whole year trying to make up for having crappy WR's and didn't make it past the semi's. The guy who won had Manning, but the guy who got 2nd had a hodgepodge of guys, starting Matt Hasselbeck in the semis and Alex Smith in the finals, proving that you can make up for not having the top QB's (although of course it didn't hurt that he had AP and Rice).

 

That said, some years you can wait until 10 or 11 teams have drafted their QB and wait awhile before picking yours. But I also have a feeling after those top 6 are gone, more people may get the idea of drafting two of the mid-tier guys, so even those guys may go faster than usual.

 

So basically, after all that, I don't know what to do (or what you should do). Rodgers/Brees/Manning will almost definitely be gone by your 2nd pick. If all three of Brady/Romo/Schaub are still there (not sure if they will be) and if you like one more than the others, you may have to use the 2nd pick on one of them, because there's a good chance one or both of the people after you will use one of their two picks on a QB.

 

In the end, I think I would rather get Romo in the 2nd round than be forced to take Eli in the 4th/5th. If you're lucky and you do go QB early maybe you can start a run on all those other guys, leaving more options for you at WR/RB.

[KSB2424 3,085]

A rising tide lifts all boats.

While also pushing them further away from one another.

[Riddlen 1]

With 6 points for quarterback, it makes the postion the most important. Just to realize this, put it up to 10 points per touchdown. You'll see that having a top 3 to 5 quarterback is a must then. I like the 4 point level and am glad that yahoo went to that in their default position last year. The quarterback is still important, but not quite so vital.

false. did you read the thread? relative value...

[djrockstar 0]

While also pushing them further away from one another.

 

You are using the Chewbacca defense. "The rising tide pushes boats further away from eachother"? I'm not trying to start an argument but, you aren't making sense. The tide does not work that way.

 

Fantasymind did the math correctly. If the league changes from 4 pts to 6 pts per QB TD. If the #1 QB throws, say, 33 TD's and the #10 QB throws 25 TD's (that's FFT projections) .... the impact of the change in scoring is only 16 points difference. (33-25=8 .... 8 TD's x 2 points more for each TD = 16 ). That's only one point per game difference. Is it a league with a very small roster? Then, OK, maybe a point per game is really valuable. But in standard leagues a point per game isn't enough to consider taking the 4th or 5th QB in the second round.

 

Raising the points for a TD from 4 to 6 actually makes drafting a QB late MORE important because the relative value of the #10 QB taken later in the rounds will be far greater than the WR/RB taken in that same round. Assuming all players are drafted in order of their final standings, a 1st round RB + 8th round QB > a 1st round QB + 8th round RB. This math would be accurate using either scoring method but even more so as QB's are given more value. This is true because in a standard league you can start many more WR's or RB's than QB's so the drop-off in QB value is far less round after round.

 

According to ADP the 10th QB is being taken around the end of the 8th round. That's where the 30th RB and WR is being taken. 10th QB + Top Tier WR > Top Tier QB + 30th WR

[TimHauck 1,843]

You are using the Chewbacca defense. "The rising tide pushes boats further away from eachother"? I'm not trying to start an argument but, you aren't making sense. The tide does not work that way.

 

Fantasymind did the math correctly. If the league changes from 4 pts to 6 pts per QB TD. If the #1 QB throws, say, 33 TD's and the #10 QB throws 25 TD's (that's FFT projections) .... the impact of the change in scoring is only 16 points difference. (33-25=8 .... 8 TD's x 2 points more for each TD = 16 ). That's only one point per game difference. Is it a league with a very small roster? Then, OK, maybe a point per game is really valuable. But in standard leagues a point per game isn't enough to consider taking the 4th or 5th QB in the second round.

 

Raising the points for a TD from 4 to 6 actually makes drafting a QB late MORE important because the relative value of the #10 QB taken later in the rounds will be far greater than the WR/RB taken in that same round. Assuming all players are drafted in order of their final standings, a 1st round RB + 8th round QB > a 1st round QB + 8th round RB. This math would be accurate using either scoring method but even more so as QB's are given more value. This is true because in a standard league you can start many more WR's or RB's than QB's so the drop-off in QB value is far less round after round.

 

According to ADP the 10th QB is being taken around the end of the 8th round. That's where the 30th RB and WR is being taken. 10th QB + Top Tier WR > Top Tier QB + 30th WR

 

Aren't you kindof contradicting yourself here? You say that the difference between the top QB and the 10th QB isn't that significant, also pointing out that the dropoff in QB value is less than WR's and RB's because you only start one, but then go on to say that the difference in scoring between QB's and RB's/WR's is significant so that you should take a QB before a RB/WR.

 

Edit: Nevermind, I thought you were saying it was more important to draft a QB than a RB/WR in a later spot, but are really saying it's important to not draft the QB early since the QB you get later will significantly outproduce a RB/WR drafted in the same round (and hopefully isn't too much of a dropoff from a top QB).

[KSB2424 3,085]

You are using the Chewbacca defense. "The rising tide pushes boats further away from eachother"? I'm not trying to start an argument but, you aren't making sense. The tide does not work that way.

 

Fantasymind did the math correctly. If the league changes from 4 pts to 6 pts per QB TD. If the #1 QB throws, say, 33 TD's and the #10 QB throws 25 TD's (that's FFT projections) .... the impact of the change in scoring is only 16 points difference.

Thanks for proving my point.

 

When you raise the tide (change the scoring from 4pts to 6pts for TD's) The standard deviation between QB's becomes greater. Which is akin to each ship being a little further apart in the analogy. If only 16-20 points further apart they are in fact further away from each other. It's not a defense. It's math, logic, and common sense.

 

I'm not even saying it makes enough of a difference to draft a QB early or not. That is dependent on the individuals projections. However to say that the scoring change has no impact is untrue.

[djrockstar 0]

Aren't you kindof contradicting yourself here? You say that the difference between the top QB and the 10th QB isn't that significant, also pointing out that the dropoff in QB value is less than WR's and RB's because you only start one, but then go on to say that the difference in scoring between QB's and RB's/WR's is significant so that you should take a QB before a RB/WR.

 

Edit: Nevermind, I thought you were saying it was more important to draft a QB than a RB/WR in a later spot, but are really saying it's important to not draft the QB early since the QB you get later will significantly outproduce a RB/WR drafted in the same round (and hopefully isn't too much of a dropoff from a top QB).

 

Right. I don't deny that there's a significant dropoff in production from QB1 to QB10. Who wouldn't want Aaron Rodgers over Joe Flacco!? The question is ... at what price?

 

As I see it, to take a top QB you have to forgo a second tier RB or a top tier WR. As I do the math, the difference in production of that QB1 over the QB10 isn't greater than the difference between, say, a WR3 or RB7 over WR30 or RB30. Yes, Aaron Rodgers will score you many many more points than Randy Moss. But that difference isn't greater than what the 10th QB scores in relation to the 30th WR or RB. Raising the value of passing TD's raises the value of top tier QB's but it raises the value of bottom tier QB's EVEN MORE relative to the WR/RB's of the same ADP.

[cheesesteaks 0]

In general I agree with taking a QB later because of value. However, there is one issue that is not included in value calculations and that is the inherent risk of getting a young unproven QB in that he can fail. Kolb hasn't done much so how good can he be? Cutler is an INT machine so he could counteract his TDs with interceptions which increases the difference between top QBs. Flacco does not pass much in the red zone. I like the idea of getting an Eli, Palmer, McNabb or Ben to pair with any of these young QBs.

 

I'm still unsure on whether to get a Brady, Romo or Schaub in the 3rd round (14-team league) or early 4th round (12-team league) or just going for a QB in the 6-7 rounds. I don't like the value of QBs in rounds 1 or 2. In the mocks that I've done on average Schaub has been going in middle to late 3rd round in 14-team league.

[djrockstar 0]

Thanks for proving my point.

 

When you raise the tide (change the scoring from 4pts to 6pts for TD's) The standard deviation between QB's becomes greater. Which is akin to each ship being a little further apart in the analogy. If only 16-20 points further apart they are in fact further away from each other. It's not a defense. It's math, logic, and common sense.

 

I'm not even saying it makes enough of a difference to draft a QB early or not. That is dependent on the individuals projections. However to say that the scoring change has no impact is untrue.

 

You are going to have to start thinking a little bigger darling. The issue isn't just the relative difference between QB's ... it's also the value of those QB's relative to WR/RB's at their ADP. The change in scoring actually makes later round QB's more valuable. Don't try and use words like math, logic and common sense until you can actually wield them.

[KSB2424 3,085]

You are going to have to start thinking a little bigger darling. The issue isn't just the relative difference between QB's ... it's also the value of those QB's relative to WR/RB's at their ADP. The change in scoring actually makes later round QB's more valuable. Don't try and use words like math, logic and common sense until you can actually wield them.

Nope. What I said is 100% true. I never once claimed that the OP should or should not draft a QB early or not. I merely pointed out that when you do change the scoring of QB's from 4pt per TD to 6 pt per TD not only will all QB's score more points, BUT the standard deviation between them will also become greater. That's all I said. You even said it yourself:

 

Fantasymind did the math correctly. If the league changes from 4 pts to 6 pts per QB TD. If the #1 QB throws, say, 33 TD's and the #10 QB throws 25 TD's (that's FFT projections) .... the impact of the change in scoring is only 16 points difference.

 

I never once compared QB's to RB's to WR's.

 

Try again dummy.

[djrockstar 0]

I never once claimed that the OP should or should not draft a QB early or not.

 

 

Really? Here's your quote ...

 

"Which means the tier dropoffs are larger, which means it might pay to have a good QB over the 10th ranked average one (dependent on your projections)."

 

If I understand you correctly, you feel that the 4 to 6 creates wider tiers between QB's driving up the value of the top QB's. I provided some math that illuminates your point ... with the caveat that it's not enough to merit moving QB's up a round or two on your draft board (as OP suggests). I'm confused now ... do we agree or disagree on that point?

 

Let's actually put the numbers to the test ...

 

OP has the third pick. He's considering taking BRADY, MANNING, SCHAUB or ROMO with his 2nd or 3rd pick. Those QB's are projected to score 346, 342, 328, 323 points ... but he has to sacrifice taking a WR or RB at that slot. I think the range of projected points for players being taken at 2.7 to 3.3 is between 250-220 in a PPR. That's a difference of between 120-70 points.

 

If OP waits and takes the 10th QB I'm looking at like ADP calculators and the 10th QB is going in the middle of the 8th round. FFT has the 10th QB scoring 298 points. And the range of projected project points for WR's and RB's that are going in the 8th round range between 185-150 points. That's a difference of 150-115 points.

 

The difference between BRADY, MANNING, ROMO or SCHAUB and QB10 might be 50-30 points ... but the difference between the WR/RB that you get between rounds 2/3 and round 8 is projected around 100-35 points.

 

Again, I would make the argument that you actually get WAY more bang for your buck by drafting a QB late.

[KSB2424 3,085]

Really? Here's your quote ...

 

"Which means the tier dropoffs are larger, which means it might pay to have a good QB over the 10th ranked average one (dependent on your projections)."

 

If I understand you correctly, you feel that the 4 to 6 creates wider tiers between QB's driving up the value of the top QB's. I provided some math that illuminates your point ... with the caveat that it's not enough to merit moving QB's up a round or two on your draft board (as OP suggests). I'm confused now ... do we agree or disagree on that point?

 

Let's actually put the numbers to the test ...

 

OP has the third pick. He's considering taking BRADY, MANNING, SCHAUB or ROMO with his 2nd or 3rd pick. Those QB's are projected to score 346, 342, 328, 323 points ... but he has to sacrifice taking a WR or RB at that slot. I think the range of projected points for players being taken at 2.7 to 3.3 is between 250-220 in a PPR. That's a difference of between 120-70 points.

 

If OP waits and takes the 10th QB I'm looking at like ADP calculators and the 10th QB is going in the middle of the 8th round. FFT has the 10th QB scoring 298 points. And the range of projected project points for WR's and RB's that are going in the 8th round range between 185-150 points. That's a difference of 150-115 points.

 

The difference between BRADY, MANNING, ROMO or SCHAUB and QB10 might be 50-30 points ... but the difference between the WR/RB that you get between rounds 2/3 and round 8 is around 100 points.

 

Again, I would make the argument that you actually get WAY more bang for your buck by drafting a QB late.

Holy Hell you are all over the place.

 

You're arguing two different things here pudding head. Stop for a second and regroup. I'll go slow.

 

You said: A rising tide raises all ships

I said: Yes it does, but it also makes the ships futher apart.

 

Which it does, you even said it seperates the QB's "by 16 MORE points in your projections". So I'm not even sure why you are arguing with me.

 

I'm not arguing whether or not to take a QB early or late, as that depends on each individuals projections. Good grief.

[djrockstar 0]

Holy Hell you are all over the place.

 

You're arguing two different things here pudding head. Stop for a second and regroup. I'll go slow.

 

You said: A rising tide raises all ships

I said: Yes it does, but it also makes the ships futher apart.

 

Which it does, you even said it seperates the QB's "by 16 MORE points in your projections". So I'm not even sure why you are arguing with me.

 

I'm not arguing whether or not to take a QB early or late, as that depends on each individuals projections. Good grief.

 

Yes, 16 points between the #1 QB and the #10 QB. I'm not sure that's enough to merit OP taking a QB much higher than is necessary. In fact, when you look at the relative value of the #10 QB to his ADP it actually increases the relative value of late round QB's.

[ffexpert 4]

Yes, 16 points between the #1 QB and the #10 QB. I'm not sure that's enough to merit OP taking a QB much higher than is necessary. In fact, when you look at the relative value of the #10 QB to his ADP it actually increases the relative value of late round QB's.

 

You struggle with reading comprehension, don't you?

[djrockstar 0]

You struggle with reading comprehension, don't you?

Nice alt.

[ffexpert 4]

Nice alt.

 

what's an alt.?

[Gladiators 1,909]

what's an alt.?

 

[cheesesteaks 0]

Many are in agreement that it is not worth taking a QB very early. However, when is taking a top 6 QB worth it? What if you have a late 3rd to middle 4th round pick would you take Romo or Schaub there?

 

- In the 15-20 ranked RB you get 160-172 points while 30-35 ranked RB get 129-145 pts for a max spread of 43 points.

- For WRs you get 136-148 points while 25-32 ranked WRs get 107-114 pts for a max spread of 41 pts.

- Romo and Schaub are projected to make 310 and 297 points while Kolb, Cutler, Flacco, Favre make 270-289 points for a max spread of 40 pts.

 

In this case there is no big difference so you might as well aim for the safer QB instead of a risky QB with potential, but if you miss on top 6 then you can wait for a QB in rounds 6-8 and pick a QB. These numbers are for a standard league with 6-point TDs for QBs. If it is PPR league then waiting for a QB is a better option.

[Turducken 0]

what's an alt.?

New users are always accused of being someone already present on the board. It's the collective paranoia of these forums.

 

I think proper protocol is to sign up, but not post for 3 months, and then they'll believe you're a new person.

[ffexpert 4]

New users are always accused of being someone already present on the board. It's the collective paranoia of these forums.

 

I think proper protocol is to sign up, but not post for 3 months, and then they'll believe you're a new person.

 

 

Oh I see, I kinda figured that someone with no defense for there illogical statments would have to accuse me of bias, but i was just reading the thread and couldn't help but point out the terrible reading comprehension.

 

that being said, I too am debating whether it is better to draft Romo, Schaub, Brady in 3rd (27) or try and get Eli, Flacco, or Matt Ryan in the 6th (70) or the 7th (75). It is a very tough call... I think i have will draft jennings or DJAX at (27)if he is there or else prob go QB.....or maybe go McCoy or Charles...damn

[jgcrawfish 232]

Ok, here's the deal. Get the top 12 QB (or 10 if it's it a 10 teamer) scores from the last 3 years. Names don't matter, just total points and TD's. Average them out. Then add 2 x # of TD's to each one. You now have a fairly good estimate of what the top QB's for this year will put up. Compare that to the top 24 RB, 24 WR and 12 TE averages for the last 3 years. Those won't change because your scoring system stays the same on them. Then calculate the % drop off from each one to the next, and the % drop off from the top one to each, on all positions. Last year for example there were (in my 10 teamer @ 6pts passing TD league) 8 QB's within 64 pts of each other, or about 4 pts per game. That's not a huge spread, and it's definitely not large enough to make me give up a good RB or WR in the 1st and 2nd, hell, even 3rd round where I can definitely stock my team to make up the difference AND give myself better depth and ability to overcome injuries. So, rank your top 12 QB's, then watch for the value. If one of them falls, or you reach that point where you're about to lose out on one that you think will be within that 4-5 pt of the top performer range, pull the trigger. Draft strategy should be fluid. Start with a goal/plan, but take the value.

[KSB2424 3,085]

Ok, here's the deal. Get the top 12 QB (or 10 if it's it a 10 teamer) scores from the last 3 years. Names don't matter, just total points and TD's. Average them out. Then add 2 x # of TD's to each one. You now have a fairly good estimate of what the top QB's for this year will put up. Compare that to the top 24 RB, 24 WR and 12 TE averages for the last 3 years. Those won't change because your scoring system stays the same on them. Then calculate the % drop off from each one to the next, and the % drop off from the top one to each, on all positions. Last year for example there were (in my 10 teamer @ 6pts passing TD league) 8 QB's within 64 pts of each other, or about 4 pts per game. That's not a huge spread, and it's definitely not large enough to make me give up a good RB or WR in the 1st and 2nd, hell, even 3rd round where I can definitely stock my team to make up the difference AND give myself better depth and ability to overcome injuries. So, rank your top 12 QB's, then watch for the value. If one of them falls, or you reach that point where you're about to lose out on one that you think will be within that 4-5 pt of the top performer range, pull the trigger. Draft strategy should be fluid. Start with a goal/plan, but take the value.

I more or less agree here, and do usually wait for a QB. Even in 6pt TD leagues.

 

However I do want to point out that it's not really this simple. We (me included) like to try and find some cut and dry solution to this fantasy football mess. When in fact there are just way more factors involved. For instance, chance of injury. Which 2nd round Draft pick has a greater shot at injury? Rodgers/Manning/Brees or Mendenhall/Green/Marshall hell even S-Jax/Turner/Moss? NFL rules protect QB's. QB's on average get hurt much less than position players. Especially RB's. Also the "bust" factor is less with a top 6 QB. Which player has a bigger chance to significantly underperform their projections? Peyton Manning or Jamal Charles? See my point?

 

So while I normally wait on QB's too, there is something to be said for a top teir QB in rounds 2, 3 and 4. It's not always about using some websites projections (which are just guesses) and dividing it by X then multiplying by Y.

[svtballa 8]

I more or less agree here, and do usually wait for a QB. Even in 6pt TD leagues.

 

However I do want to point out that it's not really this simple. We (me included) like to try and find some cut and dry solution to this fantasy football mess. When in fact there are just way more factors involved. For instance, chance of injury. Which 2nd round Draft pick has a greater shot at injury? Rodgers/Manning/Brees or Mendenhall/Green/Marshall hell even S-Jax/Turner/Moss? NFL rules protect QB's. QB's on average get hurt much less than position players. Especially RB's. Also the "bust" factor is less with a top 6 QB. Which player has a bigger chance to significantly underperform their projections? Peyton Manning or Jamal Charles? See my point?

 

So while I normally wait on QB's too, there is something to be said for a top teir QB in rounds 2, 3 and 4. It's not always about using some websites projections (which are just guesses) and dividing it by X then multiplying by Y.

 

 

Great post!!

[PackYourNut 47]

I look at value primarily, but I also consider sleepers or breakout players. If I know there will be 2-3 guys I can grab late that will over perform at WR & RB. Then I get a solid #1 at those positions and a #1 QB, then fill in my gap later with my breakout players.

 

Everyone plays differently and that's the best part of it.

[Curt Sminkey 0]

With QB's getting 6 points for a TD, I've always drafted them extremely high, usually in the 1st or 2nd round and it's paid off extremely well for me. Last year, the other owners went the same route - 5 QB's were taken in the 1st round. Going with value, I decided to hold off and stock up on the available RB's and WR's and for whatever reason, it bombed for me. I'm going into the draft this year hoping for a top 5 QB again unless someone who I really want is available (unless i draft in the top 3, then i'm going RB).

 

I goes against all logic of drafting players based off value, but i just didn't work for me.

 

 

You can't rule out the fact that i drafted bad players last year though, which seems more likely.

[soopacee 0]

i didnt read many replies but:

 

 

in my league, 6pt for all td's

 

 

about 5 qb's go in the 1st 2 rounds

 

 

if that helps any