DickThuy 0 Posted October 25, 2010 Estimate the chance of the person above you, then put down your situation. I'll start. Down 22 points with Miles Austin and Giants D. My opponent has Felix Jones. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Matt Mueller 146 Posted October 25, 2010 Jeez I'd say that's about 50-50. I'm up 6 with Romo and Bradshaw going against Nicks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tanatastic 2,061 Posted October 25, 2010 Jeez I'd say that's about 50-50. I'm up 6 with Romo and Bradshaw going against Nicks. Id say 95 percent chance of winning. Im up 6 with roy williams to go vs bradshaw. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bui 1 Posted October 25, 2010 Id say 95 percent chance of winning. Im up 6 with roy williams to go vs bradshaw. I'd say 75% chance of winning. Dallas kept Adrian Peterson in check, so I assume they can keep Bradshaw in check (who has a legitimate vulture in Jacobs sharing the rock). Roy seems to be the man in Dallas at the moment. I'm up 28 with no one to go vs. Steve Smith (NYG) :pointstosky: Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Boston Three Party 6 Posted October 25, 2010 UP 3.75 with Miles and Bradshaw going, opponent only has Eli. I GOT THIS! 50/50 ugh. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kriegz 0 Posted October 25, 2010 40/60 I see/hope Eli putting up a good line. I am down 19 and I have Eli, Nicks & Giants D going against only Austin. Interesting Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GridIronAssassin#1 0 Posted October 25, 2010 kriegz, you have about a 45% of winning. I am down 2 points with Bradshaw left to play on my team. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MrDooDooMan 3 Posted October 25, 2010 Down 25 (appreciate that mcfadden) with Bradshaw and Giants D left. Could be worse I suppose but I dont like where im at especially if Bradshaw has to get his scores from outside the tens. Maybe tonight he wont get tackled inside the five on his seemingly weekly 50 yard run followed by Jacobs vulture. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jjg 3 Posted October 25, 2010 kriegz, you have about a 45% of winning. I am down 2 points with Bradshaw left to play on my team. You have a 99% chance of winning unless Bradshaw suffers some freakish injury on his first carry. I'm down 8 points and have Tony Romo. Opponent has no one left. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mdbomb 5 Posted October 25, 2010 96.9% chance of winning. I'm up 2 he has Jacobs and the Dallas D, I have Bradshaw and Miles. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mdbomb 5 Posted October 25, 2010 Down 25 (appreciate that mcfadden) with Bradshaw and Giants D left. Could be worse I suppose but I dont like where im at especially if Bradshaw has to get his scores from outside the tens. Maybe tonight he wont get tackled inside the five on his seemingly weekly 50 yard run followed by Jacobs vulture. 61% chance of winning. I'm up 2 he has Jacobs and the Dallas D, I have Bradshaw and Miles. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IronToe Nedney 0 Posted October 25, 2010 96.9% chance of winning. I'm up 2 he has Jacobs and the Dallas D, I have Bradshaw and Miles. You're a stone cold lock to win. 100% I need 80 and a TD from Witten. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
abair058 0 Posted October 25, 2010 Down 12.5 pts I have Witten, Eli and Nicks He has Felix Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BingoBrown 8 Posted October 25, 2010 Down 12.5 pts I have Witten, Eli and Nicks He has Felix I'd put it at 90%. Eli should be good for the 12.5, so then it's Witten + Nicks vs. Felix. Witten might outscore Felix on his own. Up by 1 pt, I've got Romo, Bradshaw, & Nicks. Opponent has Manningham and Tynes. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frank M 181 Posted October 25, 2010 I'm up 34.5, he has Romo and Austin going tonight. No PPR, standard scoring. I say I'm 70-30. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gelucy44 0 Posted October 25, 2010 This is a great thread... I would say 55% you don't hang on. My situation: Down 20.5 pts got Bradshaw and Jones. 1 pt per rec, 1 per 10 rush yds, 10 per 20 rec yds, 5pts for TD. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BTL99 34 Posted October 25, 2010 I'm up 34.5, he has Romo and Austin going tonight. No PPR, standard scoring. I say I'm 70-30. I think that is going to be real close, I could easily see Romo and Austin getting 30-35. I'm down 7, but I have Nicks and Austin..........I think I'm good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gelucy44 0 Posted October 25, 2010 I'd put it at 90%. Eli should be good for the 12.5, so then it's Witten + Nicks vs. Felix. Witten might outscore Felix on his own. Up by 1 pt, I've got Romo, Bradshaw, & Nicks. Opponent has Manningham and Tynes. 100% chance of a win for this guy... See my situation above. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Matt Mueller 146 Posted October 25, 2010 This is a great thread... I would say 55% you don't hang on. My situation: Down 20.5 pts got Bradshaw and Jones. 1 pt per rec, 1 per 10 rush yds, 10 per 20 rec yds, 5pts for TD. I'd give you at least a 90% chance to win. I'm up 63 going against Romo and NYG D. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BingoBrown 8 Posted October 25, 2010 My situation: Down 20.5 pts got Bradshaw and Jones. 1 pt per rec, 1 per 10 rush yds, 10 per 20 rec yds, 5pts for TD. 75% chance, if not better. You can't count on TDs for either player, but with a PPR, I'd think that those guys should have 6-8 between them, thus leaving it up to pretty modest rushing yardage. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
southcarolina 166 Posted October 25, 2010 I'd give you at least a 90% chance to win. I'm up 63 going against Romo and NYG D. Thats so weird.....i'm up 80 and facing Romo and The Giants D tonight. And i had Kenny Britt and his 46 pts on my bench Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
erknjerk 4 Posted October 25, 2010 %100 you look good to go. I'm down 19 and got Romo and Nicks or Jacobs left. He has none. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted October 25, 2010 Estimate the chance of the person above you, then put down your situation. I'll start. Down 22 points with Miles Austin and Giants D. My opponent has Felix Jones. Ill say you have a 35-40% chance of winning. Cause if Austin has good game or defense probably does not get you very much and same with Felix. Im down 36 pts and have Romo, Austin, and Buehler going vs Felix Jones. I have id say a 10% chance of coming back. My other matchup in that league im done no chance. So i am looking for 450 and 7 TDs from Romo and all thrown to Austin Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted October 25, 2010 I think that is going to be real close, I could easily see Romo and Austin getting 30-35. I'm down 7, but I have Nicks and Austin..........I think I'm good. Ill give you a 99.7% chance to win. The 0.3% is because there is always chance of Tornado ripping through Texas today and canceling game or injuries. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted October 25, 2010 I'm up 34.5, he has Romo and Austin going tonight. No PPR, standard scoring. I say I'm 70-30. Id say thats more like 50/50 If Romo has 250 2 TDs and 1 INT thats 20 pts and if Austin has 90 and TD thats another 15. You need to avoid Austin catching a TD or your probably toast. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mnvikejohn 1 Posted October 25, 2010 Up 12... I have Witten and he has Felix. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jerryskids 5,206 Posted October 25, 2010 %100 you look good to go. I'm down 19 and got Romo and Nicks or Jacobs left. He has none. Depends on QB scoring and if you get negative pts for ints, but I'd say 80/20 in your favor. I'm up 3 with Bradshaw vs. Felix, standard scoring. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GoBucky1 2 Posted October 25, 2010 I'm up 20 and have the tie breaker with no players left...he has Eli. I'm nervous. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted October 25, 2010 Up 12... I have Witten and he has Felix. You have a 98% chance to win Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jocstrap 8 Posted October 25, 2010 I'm up 20 and have the tie breaker with no players left...he has Eli. I'm nervous. 57% of a victory for you. Are td's worth 6 or 4 points? That could make all the difference As for me... $400 league - - I need Bradshaw to get 30 yards rushing for the win 0R 20 rushing and 10 receiving $200 league - - I'm up by 17 points, He has Steve Smith and I have NYG def, td's are worth 6 - non ppr - you start acquiring points at 50 receiving yards, with 1 point every 10 yards after that. $100 league - - I need Bradshaw to pull a Kenny Britt - 225 yards and 3 td's:( Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Criper 24 Posted October 25, 2010 57% of a victory for you. Are td's worth 6 or 4 points? That could make all the difference As for me... $400 league - - I need Bradshaw to get 30 yards rushing for the win 0R 20 rushing and 10 receiving 100% $200 league - - I'm up by 17 points, He has Steve Smith and I have NYG def, td's are worth 6 - non ppr - you start acquiring points at 50 receiving yards, with 1 point every 10 yards after that. 85% $100 league - - I need Bradshaw to pull a Kenny Britt - 225 yards and 3 td's:(No shot whatsoever! Me: PPR, 1 pt per, all td's = 6 & 2 pt bonus for td's over 40 yds. Down by 35 I have Nicks and Smiles vs. Bradshaw I put my own chances at less than 10% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jerryskids 5,206 Posted October 25, 2010 57% of a victory for you. Are td's worth 6 or 4 points? That could make all the difference As for me... $400 league - - I need Bradshaw to get 30 yards rushing for the win 0R 20 rushing and 10 receiving $200 league - - I'm up by 17 points, He has Steve Smith and I have NYG def, td's are worth 6 - non ppr - you start acquiring points at 50 receiving yards, with 1 point every 10 yards after that. $100 league - - I need Bradshaw to pull a Kenny Britt - 225 yards and 3 td's:( 1. 95% -- 30 yards seems like a gimme, without injury. 2. 90% -- 17 points seems like a lot to make up in that format; he'd need a 2TD 150+ game from Smith. Which btw, I hope he gets. 3. Two out of three ain't bad. Also some people here suck at following basic directions. Another league for me: PPR, up 8 with Smith NYG, he has Austin. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MDC 5,892 Posted October 25, 2010 Another league for me: PPR, up 8 with Smith NYG, he has Austin. 53.7% chance of victory. I'm up 52 with Bradshaw going - he has Barber. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
De Novo 0 Posted October 25, 2010 Me: PPR, 1 pt per, all td's = 6 & 2 pt bonus for td's over 40 yds. Down by 35 I have Nicks and Smiles vs. Bradshaw I put my own chances at less than 10% I think right around 10%. Bradshaw has a good chance to stay under 15 points and I think your most likely winning scenario is a bunch of quick strikes to Austin (12/120/1) and at least 1 TD grabs by Nicks. Me: Down 8 points. Nobody left. Opponent has Steve Smith. Fumbles are -3. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brandonhardy 0 Posted October 25, 2010 I think right around 10%. Bradshaw has a good chance to stay under 15 points and I think your most likely winning scenario is a bunch of quick strikes to Austin (12/120/1) and at least 1 TD grabs by Nicks. Me: Down 8 points. Nobody left. Opponent has Steve Smith. Fumbles are -3. That's a tough one there...gotta say less than 5 percent. Me: Down 22...I have Romo and Smith...Opponent has Bradshaw. All tds are 6 and get a 5 point bonus at 300 yards passing. Also, 3 point bonus at 100 yards rec/rushing. 20 rush/rec = 1 pt 50 pass = 1 pt. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bigd2262 0 Posted October 25, 2010 That's a tough one there...gotta say less than 5 percent. Me: Down 22...I have Romo and Smith...Opponent has Bradshaw. All tds are 6 and get a 5 point bonus at 300 yards passing. Also, 3 point bonus at 100 yards rec/rushing. 20 rush/rec = 1 pt 50 pass = 1 pt. I'd say 65% chance for you. Mine: PPR, 4 point passing TDs, 1 pt per 50 passing yards. I'm down 7 with Eli facing Felix. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frank M 181 Posted October 25, 2010 Id say thats more like 50/50 If Romo has 250 2 TDs and 1 INT thats 20 pts and if Austin has 90 and TD thats another 15. You need to avoid Austin catching a TD or your probably toast. I know. I was just trying to make myself feel better. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RaiderHaters Revenge 3,585 Posted October 25, 2010 down 40.46 pts in full PPR with Nicks and Austin still to go MFL projections give Austin 21.00 and Nicks 19.50, thats 40.50 so I should win by .04 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted October 25, 2010 I know. I was just trying to make myself feel better. Be ready for 408 and 4 TDs from Romo and 168 and 3 TDs from Austin Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SUXBNME 1,335 Posted October 25, 2010 99% chance that you are all losers. hth Share this post Link to post Share on other sites