Looking Ahead to FF Redrafts: 2011

[renebo 0]

Vick has got to be No. 1 pick next year if his situation stays the same.

He is a QB + RB. Thats 2 picks for 1.

[Evil Genius 0]

Vick has got to be No. 1 pick next year if his situation stays the same.

He is a QB + RB. Thats 2 picks for 1.

 

Why does everyone want to suck Vick's cack so hard...? Oh yeah, it's because he was the difference maker to so many teams this year.

 

Will he be difference maker next year? Well, since you won't be picking him out of the junk, thus getting a top-flight QB for nuthin, I would say no.

 

Vick as #1 overall is a joke, even as conjecture. The guy who gets Rogers or Brees gets a better 2nd round pick coming back around, or got an elite player in the first, depending on how your Draft shakes out. Take him #5 or #6 if you must, but come on, people.

 

Let's acknowledge that Vick was amazing this year - but any QB as #1 overall is madness, even if that guy is Vick - he will not and cannot repeat this year's numbers.

 

1) Too much film study with other teams conspiring to beat him (and the better the Eagles do in the playoffs the more this is true)

2) Injury risk (he got knocked around by the Vikes and looked very mortal indeed)

3) Year older (time takes its toll - no exceptions)

4) Evolving circumstances (things always change)

 

Even in an auction, the guy getting Vick will overpay. Enough said.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

2) Injury risk (he got knocked around by the Vikes and looked very mortal indeed)

3) Year older (time takes its toll - no exceptions)

4) Evolving circumstances (things always change)

These apply to every RB you're picking ahead of Vick as well. The tread is definitely wearing on A Peterson, C Johnson, MJD, Turner, and Gore. And just like you stated that Vick couldn't possibly put up the same numbers as this year, guys like Foster and Hillis could be right there with him.

 

Sure, Vick could be a letdown, but he could be special too. Especially in leagues like mine where there's a decent payout to the weekly top scorer.

 

And you could get Brees or Rodgers in the 2nd, but you could also get the next Arian Foster, Hillis, or McFadden later in the draft.

[Gladiators 1,904]

These apply to every RB you're picking ahead of Vick as well. The tread is definitely wearing on A Peterson, C Johnson, MJD, Turner, and Gore. And just like you stated that Vick couldn't possibly put up the same numbers as this year, guys like Foster and Hillis could be right there with him.

 

Sure, Vick could be a letdown, but he could be special too. Especially in leagues like mine where there's a decent payout to the weekly top scorer.

 

And you could get Brees or Rodgers in the 2nd, but you could also get the next Arian Foster, Hillis, or McFadden later in the draft.

 

All great points. I'm also in a league where length of td's are worth significantly more than short td's, and scoring out of position is worth double. I'm keeping him next year.

[De Novo 0]

Vick as #1 overall is a joke, even as conjecture. The guy who gets Rogers or Brees gets a better 2nd round pick coming back around, or got an elite player in the first, depending on how your Draft shakes out. Take him #5 or #6 if you must, but come on, people.

First it was a QB in the 1st round is a joke. Then it was a QB in the top 6 is a joke. Now it's a stud QB at #1 is a joke. People are just too set in their ways. Fantasy football evolves every year. If I pick 1st next year, it's Vick or AD and I'm leaning toward Vick. There's nobody else I'd consider, outside of giving a second of thought to Foster.

[Evil Genius 0]

You guys are ridiculously short-sighted. Most of you have him on your rosters, I am sure. Type in 'Endowment effect' on Google. Learn something.

 

In any case, Vick is not #1 overall - set in my ways or otherwise, 'evolution' or otherwise (which is brutally embellished nonsense: while Player values change, successful FF strategies have been unchanged since they thought this game up). Vick is good, Vick is great, who do we appreciate...but his surprise success this year is biasing your perceptions. Worship away, you man-loving forgetful dweebs.

 

Bold prediction: Vick will not finish #1 in scoring next year. Top 3 QB if he makes it through the year. Finishes maybe, top 12 in scoring in 4pt PaTD leagues with no yardage bonuses for long TDs.

 

First round pick: yes. First overall: NO

[p00h 85]

You guys are ridiculously short-sighted. Most of you have him on your rosters, I am sure. Type in 'Endowment effect' on Google. Learn something.

 

In any case, Vick is not #1 overall - set in my ways or otherwise, 'evolution' or otherwise (which is brutally embellished nonsense: while Player values change, successful FF strategies have been unchanged since they thought this game up). Vick is good, Vick is great, who do we appreciate...but his surprise success this year is biasing your perceptions. Worship away, you man-loving forgetful dweebs.

 

Bold prediction: Vick will not finish #1 in scoring next year. Top 3 QB if he makes it through the year. Finishes maybe, top 12 in scoring in 4pt PaTD leagues with no yardage bonuses for long TDs.

 

First round pick: yes. First overall: NO

 

 

his success this year is biasing your perceptions????

 

what are you an idiot??? That is what FF is all about, what have you done for me lately. Who you gonna take, LT, because he was so successful 8 years ago. You make not a single valid point. You're stuck on 'vick won't produce like that again' which is your perogative to get stuck on. But that doesn't change the fact that he is a qb1 and a rb2 in a single package, and when the adps start to materialize for next year's draft, I have very little doubt he'll be 1.03 at the worst. IF you're going to argue against something, at least bring somne logic to the table brah...

[Evil Genius 0]

what are you an idiot???

 

Yes, I am an idiot. Of the top notch, first-class variety.

 

Go ahead, whomever you are, and draft Vick #1 or overpay at an auction. And this idiot will be there to say, out of a ranting, moronic stupor: "i told ya so"

 

Peyton's 2004

Brady's 2007

LT's 2006

CJ's 2009

Rice's 2009

Ricky William's 2002

 

 

After impressive statistical seasons, recent history has shown that players generally regress to the mean. This recurrent pattern of regression quite often leads to FF disappointment. Moreover, I have found, through the fog of my idiocy, that investing into stocks on the rise, as opposed to stocks at their peak, is a logical method for making gains. Please note that Dickerson's 1984 might be the exception.

 

But who needs logic when you have stooopidity?

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Yes, I am an idiot. Of the top notch, first-class variety.

 

Go ahead, whomever you are, and draft Vick #1 or overpay at an auction. And this idiot will be there to say, out of a ranting, moronic stupor: "i told ya so"

 

Peyton's 2004

Brady's 2007

LT's 2006

CJ's 2009

Rice's 2009

 

After massive statistical years,recent history has shown that remarkable years are generally followed by regression. This recurrent pattern of regression quite often leads to FF disappointment.

 

I have found, through the fog of my idiocy, that investing into stocks on the rise, as opposed to stocks at their peak, is a logical method for making gains.

 

But who needs logic when you have stooopidity?

 

-Peyton in 2005 was the #2 overall QB in my league. (6 points all TD's)

-Brady got hurt in the first game of the 2008 season and never played again. How is that a good example?

 

If you're investing in stocks on the rise as opposed to their peak then you're drafting upside in FF. I'd think a guy like Vick would still be on the rise since he could even get better in the passing game. Meanwhile guys like Peterson, Chris Johnson, MJD, Turner, and Gore have probably all peaked or are declining.

[Gladiators 1,904]

Yes, I am an idiot. Of the top notch, first-class variety.

 

Go ahead, whomever you are, and draft Vick #1 or overpay at an auction. And this idiot will be there to say, out of a ranting, moronic stupor: "i told ya so"

 

Peyton's 2004

Brady's 2007

LT's 2006

CJ's 2009

Rice's 2009

Ricky William's 2002

 

 

After impressive statistical seasons, recent history has shown that players generally regress to the mean. This recurrent pattern of regression quite often leads to FF disappointment. Moreover, I have found, through the fog of my idiocy, that investing into stocks on the rise, as opposed to stocks at their peak, is a logical method for making gains. Please note that Dickerson's 1984 might be the exception.

 

But who needs logic when you have stooopidity?

 

I'm sure you'll say it's too early to provide, but I'm curious what your top 12 picks look like for next year.

 

I've never drafted a quarterback in the first four rounds of fantasy football, and I've played for approximately 15 years. I don't think I'd take Vick as a top 3 pick next year, other than in a league that puts a premium on long td's and/or on scoring out of position. However, when I think about what the top 12 picks will look like next year, I think there are going to be a lot of questionmarks going into next season. There's a high turnover in the top 10 RB's from year-to-year, and you can draft RB's in rounds 3-7 that can produce as well, or better, than many first rounders. I think the same is true for WR's. The key, obviously, is doing your homework and finding those players.

 

I also think the Eagles will continue to be an explosive offense. Jackson, Maclin, and McCoy are all under 25 (I think?). Injury is the only thing that worries me about Vick's potential to repeat this season's numbers.

[Stewburtx8 67]

 

After impressive statistical seasons, recent history has shown that players generally regress to the mean. This recurrent pattern of regression quite often leads to FF disappointment. Moreover, I have found, through the fog of my idiocy, that investing into stocks on the rise, as opposed to stocks at their peak, is a logical method for making gains. Please note that Dickerson's 1984 might be the exception.

 

But who needs logic when you have stooopidity?

 

 

Regression to the mean is all fine and dandy, BUT what is the mean for Michael Vick? No one really knows. His athletic ability at the QB position has never been seen before. He now has put a lot more time in to film study, practicing, and becoming a more complete QB. You can't ask for a better group of young weapons (Desean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Lesean McCoy, Brent Celek) to have around him. Could he possibly even get BETTER?

 

I tend to agree with you that I personally wouldn't take him #1 overall. But I also NEVER take a QB in the first round. That's just my own personal strategy. But for those that do, who has more upside than Michael Vick? Obviously he is an injury risk, but these days, everyone but Peyton Manning misses a game or two.

 

Based on the 12 games he played this season, his per game averages would result in a season of 4,021 passing yards, 28 TD's, 8 ints, 901 rushing yards, 12 rushing TD's. And these per game averages even include two games where he didn't play more than a half of football. But that's 418.94 fantasy points in a season if he puts up those kind of per game numbers. By comparison, Tom Brady in 2007 put up 398.04 fantasy points, and that's the season he broke the NFL record for touchdown passes. Even if Vick only puts up 75-80% of that next season, you are still probably looking at the #1 QB, and a guy that could be a top 5 pick. Just my opinion. Micheal Vick at #1 overall? Not as crazy as it seems.

[Walter34 3]

Forte has worked himself back into the mix and should be a high 2nd rounder come draft time. He will be over 1500 yards total with 10+ Tds at seasons end.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Forte has worked himself back into the mix and should be a high 2nd rounder come draft time. He will be over 1500 yards total with 10+ Tds at seasons end.

He was a steal this year and I wish I was in on it. Next year he'll cost too much again.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Rotoworld's take on the 1st round....

 

1. Michael Vick, Eagles - At some point this offseason, the industry "experts" will collectively decide that a quarterback can't go No. 1 overall because elite options are too easy to find in later rounds. Bollocks. Vick and Kevin Kolb have combined for 437.9 fantasy points in 2010, 55 more than second-place Aaron Rodgers (and Matt Flynn) and nearly 90 points ahead of the trio of Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Philip Rivers.

 

Despite a pair of half-games, Vick averaged 30 points per week with the rest of the "elite" field sitting at 22-25. Tight end is the only other position that saw such a disparity, with Antonio Gates lapping the field. The Eagles' dynamic young offensive playmakers aren't going anywhere this offseason. I'm taking Vick first overall and coming back with Kolb as his handcuff in the 13th round.

 

2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings - He's a rock. For the fourth time in four years since entering the NFL, Peterson finished in the top-three in fantasy points.

 

3. Arian Foster, Texans - While he's proven to be an elite talent this season, it certainly doesn't hurt that coach Gary Kubiak is expected to keep his job -- and the zone-blocking scheme intact -- for 2011.

 

4. Chris Johnson, Titans - The consensus 2010 No. 1 pick still managed a top-seven finish with the passing game and play-calling crumbling around him. CJ2K's ceiling and floor both remain sky high.

 

5. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs - Considering his production over the past five weeks, it can be argued that Charles was the most valuable back in fantasy land this year. He maintains as much upside as any running back in the NFL, and Thomas Jones is another year older in 2011.

 

6. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars - It looks like MJD may need meniscus surgery after the season, so that's a story to track through OTAs and minicamp. As long as he's back to 100 percent by August, Jones-Drew remains a good bet for 1,500 total yards, 50 receptions, and double-digit scores.

 

7. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers - Since returning from a concussion in Week 12, Stewart's 531 rushing yards are exceeded only by Jamaal Charles' 532. With DeAngelo Williams likely out of the picture, one of the league's most talented backs is set to take over as the bell cow in the Carolina backfield. In eight starts to close out the last two seasons with Williams sidelined, Stewart has averaged 121 rushing yards per game.

 

8. Ray Rice, Ravens - Due to a lack of touchdowns and big plays, Rice was a very mild fantasy disappointment in 2010. Both problems should be fixed in the offseason with the offensive line shored up and goal-line back Willis McGahee likely to be shown the door.

 

9. Frank Gore, 49ers - Gore will be seen as a risky selection entering his contract year in 2011 while coming off a fractured hip. He avoided the worst-case scenario, however, and should be back to 100 percent through rest and rehab by late spring.

 

10. Andre Johnson, Texans - Only a lingering high-ankle sprain kept him from reaching 1,500 yards for an NFL-record three straight seasons. A.J. is money in the bag at wide receiver.

 

11. Darren McFadden, Raiders - After finishing fourth in fantasy points and second in points per game, McFadden has earned a first-round grade. He would be higher on the list if not for his checkered injury history.

 

12a. LeSean McCoy, Eagles - Shady finished sixth in running back fantasy points while leading all backs in receptions and placing second only to Arian Foster in receiving yards. His role in the Eagles' passing attack leaves him virtually slump-proof.

 

12b. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - You couldn't be blamed for going with Peyton Hillis in the first round, but there could be a new sheriff in Cleveland. Hillis' late-season fade is enough of a concern that a committee attack looms as a threat in 2011. Even with his best weapon, Jermichael Finley, sidelined for the majority of the season, Rodgers enjoyed a third straight top-three finish at quarterback. He's yet to hit his fantasy ceiling.

 

On the cusp: Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Matt Forte, Peyton Hillis, Rashard Mendenhall, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson

[fantasymind 1]

It is really hard to speculate on an overall top 12, since the scoring rules in each individual league play a huge factor when ranking guys. If we are talking ppr, a guy like McCoy gets a big bump over a guy like Turner and so on...that said, here is my top 5 at each position, assuming ppr...

Qb:

Vick

Rodgers

Brees

Brady

Manning

--Looks to be a really deep group next season, with guys like Rivers, Romo, Eli, Ryan, Schaub etc providing good value for those who decide to wait

 

Rb:

Foster

Johnson

Peterson

Charles

McCoy

---Again, alot of talent here with Rice, McFadden, Hillis, Gore, MJD and Forte all potentially big point-getters in PPR

 

WR:

Andre

Roddy

Calvin

Jennings

Nicks

---Nicks may be a surprise here, but is a guy clearly on the upswing...

 

Will probably change quite a bit before next September...

[p00h 85]

Yes, I am an idiot. Of the top notch, first-class variety.

 

Go ahead, whomever you are, and draft Vick #1 or overpay at an auction. And this idiot will be there to say, out of a ranting, moronic stupor: "i told ya so"

 

Peyton's 2004

Brady's 2007

LT's 2006

CJ's 2009

Rice's 2009

Ricky William's 2002

 

 

After impressive statistical seasons, recent history has shown that players generally regress to the mean. This recurrent pattern of regression quite often leads to FF disappointment. Moreover, I have found, through the fog of my idiocy, that investing into stocks on the rise, as opposed to stocks at their peak, is a logical method for making gains. Please note that Dickerson's 1984 might be the exception.

 

But who needs logic when you have stooopidity?

 

 

 

Stupidity, you has it...

 

 

Let me speak to these points you made first, then we can talk about your stock market analogy...

 

1) Too much film study with other teams conspiring to beat him (and the better the Eagles do in the playoffs the more this is true)

2) Injury risk (he got knocked around by the Vikes and looked very mortal indeed)

3) Year older (time takes its toll - no exceptions)

4) Evolving circumstances (things always change)

 

1. THe league only does film study on Vick??? Based on your theory, EVERY player in the league will produce worse every year than the year past because the rest of the leauge will have caught up to them via film study.

2. Every player in the league is an injury risk. Sure his style is a bit more prone to it, and maybe that deters people from taking him #1 overall. However, the #1 overall pick from this year has missed his share of games this year as well. I get your point on this one though...

3. Everyone is a year older next year. Are you serious with this point. If you want to discuss his age strictly, he's actually in his prime right now, and thats even if he didn't miss those few years doing time. With those missed years, he actually has more time in his peak than someone else his age would!

4. Not sure what the crap this even means. Things always change??? really??? That's deep stuff right there...

 

 

Not, to your stock market analogy, which actually alligns well with your 'things always change' position. So you think this year was his peak??? Do you know how young his WRs and RB are??? Assuming he stays with Philly, he is no where near his peak. He hadn't played any serious amount of football for years coming into this year. And he steps right in, not even a starter to start the season, and does what he did. And you think that's his peak??? Lot of people thought apple's stock peaked at 120 bucks too. Again, it is your perrogative to believe this is his peak, only time will tell, but if you're going to be adamant about that viewpoint, and make comments like 'Worship away, you man-loving forgetful dweebs. ' then expect people to call you an idiot.

 

Even when he wasn't a shell of the passing qb he proved himself to be this year, he was consistently at the top of the FF food chain. Now he throws bullet 60 yard passes like they were 7 yard slants, and you think he's peaked this year. Do you know what it means to rush for 50 yards a game, which is also not a peak number for him. Do you know how many yards another qb has to throw for to amount to that additional 50 yards rushing he gives you every game. And if he scores 8 rushing TDs, again not remotely a peak number for him(he has 9 this year with having missed games), that is .5 rushing td a game. RB2s AVERAGE around that, and more RBs than not don't get to 8 TDs. He is 9th in the league in rushing TDs this year, having missed games! That puts him at RB1 strictly from a TD perspective. More TDs than 50% of the backs drafted in the 1st and 2nd round of all drafts this year. His points accumilated from rushing yards and tds alone put him at a high end RB2. This is the point I'm making, he's 2 players in 1. A top notch QB1 and a top notch RB2, ALL IN 1 PLAYER! Is any of this sinking in??? Like I said, time will tell who's right and who's wrong, as it always does. I just want to make sure that before you go around calling people man loving dweebs, you fully understand the numbers in front of you, and also understand that this is no where near his peak. Vick is a special player, always has been, but has shown this year that he is ready to take it to yet another level, a level that has rarely if ever been seen in this league. STrictly from a FF perspective. I hope people keep the, 'he'll never win a championship' discussion out of this, because it is irrelevant...

[p00h 85]

I'm sure you'll say it's too early to provide, but I'm curious what your top 12 picks look like for next year.

 

I've never drafted a quarterback in the first four rounds of fantasy football, and I've played for approximately 15 years. I don't think I'd take Vick as a top 3 pick next year, other than in a league that puts a premium on long td's and/or on scoring out of position. However, when I think about what the top 12 picks will look like next year, I think there are going to be a lot of questionmarks going into next season. There's a high turnover in the top 10 RB's from year-to-year, and you can draft RB's in rounds 3-7 that can produce as well, or better, than many first rounders. I think the same is true for WR's. The key, obviously, is doing your homework and finding those players.

 

I also think the Eagles will continue to be an explosive offense. Jackson, Maclin, and McCoy are all under 25 (I think?). Injury is the only thing that worries me about Vick's potential to repeat this season's numbers.

 

 

Rotoworld's take on the 1st round....

 

 

here is my take on the inconsistency of the top rated rbs EVERY YEAR, as opposed to the consistency top rated QBs provide, EVERY YEAR. And this doesn't even take into account Vick, who is off the charts in any analysis done. Unless you analyze him as a RB, where he's on the chart as a high end RB2! It's nuts what this guy's ceiling is, and to say he's peaked is moronic...

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=379843&view=findpost&p=4401513

[Evil Genius 0]

Is any of this sinking in???

 

No. Partly because I'm dumb. But mostly because you're wrong.

[p00h 85]

No. Partly because I'm dumb. But mostly because you're wrong.

 

Roger that chief. Thread bookmarked for posterity. I hope you have slightly more self respect than ray lewis' limo driver as far as manning up to being wrong. You seem like one of them know it alls that don't know much though, so I'm fairly confident it'll get spun some stupid way. lets pick it back up in say about 10 months...

[Evil Genius 0]

Roger that chief. Thread bookmarked for posterity.... lets pick it back up in say about 10 months...

 

That's the kind of spirit I like. With the notion that I will back up my assertion that Mr. Vick should be drafted around 6th over all, I will make a wager, similarly for posterity. This wager should serve nicely to settle this difference of opinion.

 

I will venture that 5 players of any position will finish ahead of Mr. Vick in total scoring for 2011, weeks 1-16 inclusive based on PPR Scoring [QBs: 4pts for a PaTD, 1 point for 25 yards passing, 1 pt per 10yd rushing, no yardage bonuses, all other players 6 pts for all TDs, 1pt for 10 RuYds or ReYds, 1 pt per REC]. If he is so good, a player and half, as others have said - then he should have no trouble finishing in the top 5, in 2011. If he gets hurt, or does not play for any reason, the bet stands.

 

The wager is a bottle of single malt scotch - or $50, if the bottle cannot be physically given - payable to the winner by e-transfer.

 

I am 100% serious and will pay the wager, guaranteed, should I lose. Failure to arrange payment by December 31st, 2011 means the welcher must forsake their FF Today user identity out of pure shame and humiliation.

 

Do we have a bet?

[p00h 85]

That's the kind of spirit I like. With the notion that I will back up my assertion that Mr. Vick should be drafted around 6th over all, I will make a wager, similarly for posterity. This wager should serve nicely to settle this difference of opinion.

 

I will venture that 5 players of any position will finish ahead of Mr. Vick in total scoring for 2011, weeks 1-16 inclusive based on PPR Scoring [QBs: 4pts for a PaTD, 1 point for 25 yards passing, 1 pt per 10yd rushing, no yardage bonuses, all other players 6 pts for all TDs, 1pt for 10 RuYds or ReYds, 1 pt per REC]. If he is so good, a player and half, as others have said - then he should have no trouble finishing in the top 5, in 2011. If he gets hurt, or does not play for any reason, the bet stands.

 

The wager is a bottle of single malt scotch - or $50, if the bottle cannot be physically given - payable to the winner by e-transfer.

 

I am 100% serious and will pay the wager, guaranteed, should I lose. Failure to arrange payment by December 31st, 2011 means the welcher must forsake their FF Today user identity out of pure shame and humiliation.

 

Do we have a bet?

 

 

nope. don't drink scotch, and don't need the 50 bucks. I've made my case for why he is easily the #1 pick, and will easily outscore everyone in every format. I'll eat crow if I'm wrong, I have no problems with that. I'm well versed to being wrong and have zero problem admitting it. Like I said, we pick it back up in 10 months. I've got this puppy bookmarked, will be here next year like I am every year. Lets chat then...

[De Novo 0]

If I take Vick 1st and he busts, I'm fine with that. His bust won't be as bad as Chris Johnson's was this year or LT in '08. The only other option for #1 overall really is Peterson and both he and Vick take a lot of abuse and have similar meaningful but not frightening injury histories. The injury risk is the almost the same as I'm concerned. So, that takes cares of the injury risk issue as far as I'm concerned.

 

As for whether it's worth it to take a QB #1 overall, the difference between Vick and QB2 is enough to make it worth it. Vick has the highest upside of any player in the NFL. I will draft upside and take the injury risk almost every single time. Individually, it doesn't always work (Mathews, Best, Finley) but in the aggregate it usually does (Charles, Foster, McFadden, Mike Williams, TO, Dez). If I take Vick #1 and he gets hurt, then I just plug Kolb into the lineup and have low end #1 QB production. If Vick plays 1/2 a season, it's still almost worth it.

[Fumbleweed 426]

-Peyton in 2005 was the #2 overall QB in my league. (6 points all TD's)

-Brady got hurt in the first game of the 2008 season and never played again. How is that a good example?

 

If you're investing in stocks on the rise as opposed to their peak then you're drafting upside in FF. I'd think a guy like Vick would still be on the rise since he could even get better in the passing game. Meanwhile guys like Peterson, Chris Johnson, MJD, Turner, and Gore have probably all peaked or are declining.

 

Chris Johnson can't be included in a list like this. He's only played three seasons. If he's on the list, then all RBs have peaked or are in decline.

 

People put RBs out to pasture quick these days...

[Stewburtx8 67]

If I take Vick 1st and he busts, I'm fine with that. His bust won't be as bad as Chris Johnson's was this year or LT in '08. The only other option for #1 overall really is Peterson and both he and Vick take a lot of abuse and have similar meaningful but not frightening injury histories. The injury risk is the almost the same as I'm concerned. So, that takes cares of the injury risk issue as far as I'm concerned.

 

As for whether it's worth it to take a QB #1 overall, the difference between Vick and QB2 is enough to make it worth it. Vick has the highest upside of any player in the NFL. I will draft upside and take the injury risk almost every single time. Individually, it doesn't always work (Mathews, Best, Finley) but in the aggregate it usually does (Charles, Foster, McFadden, Mike Williams, TO, Dez). If I take Vick #1 and he gets hurt, then I just plug Kolb into the lineup and have low end #1 QB production. If Vick plays 1/2 a season, it's still almost worth it.

 

 

Don't really disagree with most of what you said, but I hightly doubt Kevin Kolb is in an Eagles uniform next year. There are just too many teams with a need at QB, and only about 3 or 4 worth drafting this year. There will be a demand for Kevin Kolb, and the Eagles would be foolish not to auction him off to the highest bidder. Just my opinion. But I don't think Vick's backup next year will be as "safe" as Kevin Kolb may seem to be.

[p00h 85]

Don't really disagree with most of what you said, but I hightly doubt Kevin Kolb is in an Eagles uniform next year. There are just too many teams with a need at QB, and only about 3 or 4 worth drafting this year. There will be a demand for Kevin Kolb, and the Eagles would be foolish not to auction him off to the highest bidder. Just my opinion. But I don't think Vick's backup next year will be as "safe" as Kevin Kolb may seem to be.

 

you don't necessarily need to handcuff a qb the same you might a rb. You can grab a freeman/bradford/sanchez type really late in the draft, and if vick goes down for a couple of games you roll the dice. Absurdly worth the upside Vick brings to the table. Might not get that low end QB1 type production Kolb on the eagles would give, but if its 2-3 games for the year, you roll with it, and might hit paydirt with your backup having a few decent games.

 

Plus its not like drafting vick #1 is going to ruin the rest of your team. That's what people get stuck on. Oh my god, if I draft vick first overall, I'll end up with sproles and maurice morris as my rbs, and I won't even get a chance to draft any wrs!!!! Won't somebody think of the children!!! I went qb/wr/wr in a league this year and ended up with mccoy/foster/bradshaw rounds 3/5/6 and grabbed hillis in like the 15th.

And oh, ended up with clark in the 4th, and had wayne and jennings 2/3 as my wrs. So yeah, you can go qb 1st round and still get a heavy hitting team, the sky's not going to fall...

[We Tigers 71]

1. THe league only does film study on Vick??? Based on your theory, EVERY player in the league will produce worse every year than the year past because the rest of the leauge will have caught up to them via film study.

I think this is a point that merits a little more consideration. Vick is such a unique player that next year's opponents will be doing a LOT of review on what he did this season to figure out how to stop him. I think his impact is going to decrease substantially in divisional games, where his opponents really just got bombarded this season. I think Vick is a great pick for next year, probably one of the top QBs, but he's far from a lock for anything.

[p00h 85]

I think this is a point that merits a little more consideration. Vick is such a unique player that next year's opponents will be doing a LOT of review on what he did this season to figure out how to stop him. I think his impact is going to decrease substantially in divisional games, where his opponents really just got bombarded this season. I think Vick is a great pick for next year, probably one of the top QBs, but he's far from a lock for anything.

 

 

I don't disagree, however great players do great things, regardless of how well prepared their opponents are. And while Vick is high flash, there are tons of players at any given moment that are above and beyond all their piers at a given position, and the league analyzes the crap out of those players too. Vick isn't even remotely the best qb in the league right now. You don't think they watch more tape on peyton manning than they do on freeman? Or watch more tape on how the vikes run the ball as opposed to how the seahawks run the ball. We live in an age of information, all superstar players are analyzed to death by their opponents in order to find the weaknesses. And the true great ones just adapt to the league's adaptation, and just stay one step ahead. Thats what differentiates them from the mediocre and even good players. Now if you want to hold reservation on calling vick a great one, I can understand that, but I think the unique skillset he brings to the game is indefensable. Especially now that he can sit in the pocket and pass. Can't just have spies sitting around waiting for him to run because he'll tear you up with the pass...

 

I don't think there's enough tape out there to figure out how to stop him, because many of the things he does are so unconventional. You can plan and plan, and execute to perfection, but what are you going to do when his line gives him 8 seconds of protection, at which point most of the secondary is 30 yards deep, and he decides to take off. Can't defense it. And lets not discount what andy reid brings to the table too. That dude can run an offense. And he knows how to plan his offense to suit the strengths he has. He'll have new plays to showcase vick's stuff that the league has never seen tape on. Again, staying one step ahead...

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Fumbleweed,

 

What round do you have for Ryan Torain, Mike Williams Tampa, and Jermichael Finley?

 

I've got tough keeper decision coming up and can keep Torain for a 17th round pick next year, Mike Williams Tampa for a 16th round pick next year, or Jermichael Finley for a 5th round pick.

mike williams at that price is a no brainer.

 

torain is tempting at that price but who the hell knows.

 

finley for a 5th is a bit high especially with how many good TE's there are out there.

[Gepetto 988]

Thanks for all of the responses about my keeper dilemma. Mike Williams it is! Vick for a 20th round is my other keeper in this two keeper league so can't beat that heading into next year.

[TV's Frank 0]

I targeted Nicks in the 5th round this year and really came through for me. I still think he will be an excellent fantasy wide receiver next year but I don't think I'll take him because I am afraid he will go too high. I watched him a lot this season and my concern with him is his mental aptitude. So many of Eli Mannings interceptions were from mistakes by Nicks. Either running the wrong routes or having the ball bounce off his hands into a defensive players hands. He has a load of talent but has really hurt the Giants in the turnover game. With Steve Smith and mannigham also on the team, I just wonder if eli will get sick and tired of these mental mistakes and start throwing to him less.

 

I may be tempted to take Vick very very high. I usually punt on the qb position but he is a special fantasy player in that offense, My only concern is that he is so injury prone with his style of play.

 

My thoughts exactly on Nicks. I targeted him as my WR2 this year, and got him in the 5th round. He produced ridiculous value relative to his draft position -- probably my best pick of the draft. But I'm not sure I'd feel good about taking him as my WR1 in the 2nd round next year for a lot of the reasons you mention. I think he'll be overvalued, and I probably won't be targeting him.

 

As for Vick, I understand why people are so high on him, and if people want to take him No. 1 overall, more power to them. Especially if they take him No. 1 in any draft where I'm sitting with the 5th or 6th pick. Gives me a better shot at Charles (who, I think, needs to move ahead of Turner on the OP's list). I wouldn't think about taking him unless he fell to me in the late first/early second, and I'd still likely pass on him depending on who else was on the board at the time.

[The Moz 69]

Vick is the only QB I would take in the first 2 rounds just becasue he is 2 positions at once.

 

1 - is Arian Foster in PPR - non PPR maybe AD goes first

 

Gore just had another major injury on already 2 rebuilt knees - I would be weary of taking him even in the 2nd round. Though he does seem to bounce back.

 

I might have S Jackson low 1st early 2nd.

 

If I have the 2nd pick in a draft I am not sure I can take anyone else but Vick - yeah he might throw up a stinker like week 16 but most weeks he gives you 220 yds passing with 1-3 TD's and another 50-80 yds rushing with maybe 8-10 total TD's on the season.

[p00h 85]

My thoughts exactly on Nicks. I targeted him as my WR2 this year, and got him in the 5th round. He produced ridiculous value relative to his draft position -- probably my best pick of the draft. But I'm not sure I'd feel good about taking him as my WR1 in the 2nd round next year for a lot of the reasons you mention. I think he'll be overvalued, and I probably won't be targeting him.

 

As for Vick, I understand why people are so high on him, and if people want to take him No. 1 overall, more power to them. Especially if they take him No. 1 in any draft where I'm sitting with the 5th or 6th pick. Gives me a better shot at Charles (who, I think, needs to move ahead of Turner on the OP's list). I wouldn't think about taking him unless he fell to me in the late first/early second, and I'd still likely pass on him depending on who else was on the board at the time.

 

 

i'd be weary of charles for next year, with weiss moving on. That dude knows how to design an O, might not be same next year without him. I don't doubt his skillset, but situations dictate a lot and his might not be the best, depending on who takes over...

[TripleX 0]

Didn't Charles have a monster end to the year in 09 as well, before Weiss? I think Charles is a very safe bet. He didn't average over 6 yds per carry because of Weiss alone.

[p00h 85]

Didn't Charles have a monster end to the year in 09 as well, before Weiss? I think Charles is a very safe bet. He didn't average over 6 yds per carry because of Weiss alone.

 

 

im not saying drop him to the 4th round or anything, but with the whole offense likely changing, including possibly the blocking schemes, I don't think he's as much a lock as most believe him to be. But then again, RBs going early are a big crapshoot to begin with, and I'd definitely put more faith in him than say a gore or rice or turner. Only point I'm making is don't automatically pencil him in for same production as this year, lots of circumstances will be changing with that offense...

[travis_henrys_baby_momma 10]

 

Vick as #1 overall is a joke, even as conjecture. The guy who gets Rogers or Brees gets a better 2nd round pick coming back around, or got an elite player in the first, depending on how your Draft shakes out. Take him #5 or #6 if you must, but come on, people.

 

Let's acknowledge that Vick was amazing this year - but any QB as #1 overall is madness, even if that guy is Vick - he will not and cannot repeat this year's numbers.

 

 

That's gold, Jerry! Gold!

[p00h 85]

just snagged vick at 1.07 in my first draft, 12 teamer. 1st qb off board. Ahead of him went the top 5 usual suspects, with a surprise of MJD at 6. I had choise of mccoy or mendenhall there, or 1 of the receivers. Confidently went with vick, and actually grabbed 2 wrs in 2nd and 3rd(Fitz and VJax) so its gonna be an interesting year to say the least...

 

cool story I know, but just wanted to make a point I've got my money where my mouth is, we'll see how it plays out...

[Air Mcnaair 0]

just snagged vick at 1.07 in my first draft, 12 teamer. 1st qb off board. Ahead of him went the top 5 usual suspects, with a surprise of MJD at 6. I had choise of mccoy or mendenhall there, or 1 of the receivers. Confidently went with vick, and actually grabbed 2 wrs in 2nd and 3rd(Fitz and VJax) so its gonna be an interesting year to say the least...

 

cool story I know, but just wanted to make a point I've got my money where my mouth is, we'll see how it plays out...

Who did you end up with at RB?

[p00h 85]

Who did you end up with at RB?

 

 

ended up snagging felix in teh 4th, which i find to be a steal. Then in the 5th there was a mini TE run, with VD and Witten going right in front of me, so I grabbed the last tier1 TE imo, Finley. Then got Fred Jackson in the 6th, Tolbert in the 7th. Got hightower in the 9th which was again a steal, and then closed out with CJ spiller and LT in the later rounds. Like I said, it's going to be interesting to say the least, but if Felix shows up this year, and one of jackson/hightower plays like a solid RB2, Vick/Fitz/Vjax will carry the team and I should be competing solidly. ANd if Finley blows up, I should be fairly dominant. Not the gameplan I went in with, but each round the value in other positions just seemed better than the best RBs left there, so I went with it...

[plasma george 52]

Very anxious to see your roster. Did you see how owners got their 2 RBs, then moved to WRs/TEs/QBs, and left RBs alone ? That trend happens every year, rounds 3, 4, 5....very little RB action when you have other needs.

[p00h 85]

Very anxious to see your roster. Did you see how owners got their 2 RBs, then moved to WRs/TEs/QBs, and left RBs alone ? That trend happens every year, rounds 3, 4, 5....very little RB action when you have other needs.

 

PG I'm not sure if you're being serious or just being a donkey. But no, teams didn't get their 2 rbs and move onto wrs/tes/qbs. 1 team went RB first 3 rounds, and many teams grabbed 3 rbs in the first 5 rounds...

 

On a side not, I'll give you a quick protip. Don't ever play poker for money. Your inability to think outside the box will cause you to consistently lose all of it...