Can Pres. Obama Win Re-Election With High Unemployment?

[IGotWorms 4,060]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/business/economy/02jobs.html?_r=1&hp

 

Employment Data May Be the Key to the President’s Job

By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM

WASHINGTON — No American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won a second term in office when the unemployment rate on Election Day topped 7.2 percent.

 

Seventeen months before the next election, it is increasingly clear that President Obama must defy that trend to keep his job.

 

Roughly 9 percent of Americans who want to go to work cannot find an employer. Companies are firing fewer people, but hiring remains anemic. And the vast majority of economic forecasters, including the president’s own advisers, predict only modest progress by November 2012.

 

The latest job numbers, due Friday, are expected to provide new cause for concern. Other indicators suggest the pace of growth is flagging. Weak manufacturing data, a gloomy reading on jobs in advance of Friday’s report and a drop in auto sales led the markets to their worst close since August, and those declines carried over into Asia Thursday.

 

But the grim reality of widespread unemployment is drawing little response from Washington. The Federal Reserve says it is all but tapped out. There is even less reason to expect Congressional action. Both Democrats and Republicans see clear steps to create jobs, but they are trying to walk in opposite directions and are making little progress.

 

Republicans have set the terms of debate by pressing for large cuts in federal spending, which they say will encourage private investment. Democrats have found themselves battling to minimize and postpone such cuts, which they fear will cause new job losses.

 

Honestly, I kind of assumed Obama would get re-elected, especially given the rather weak start to the Republicans' primary campaign. But it does seem like it will be pretty hard to overcome the current unemployment numbers (and I doubt it will improve markedly--if at all--before the election).

 

Seems to me that Obama has gotten a lot of leeway because the economic crash occurred before he came into office, but at some point people want to start seeing results even if it would be admittedly tough to produce them in these economic times.

[MedStudent 56]

I would normally assume he would lose and rather handily if the economy does not improve but I don't know if the republicans will nominate a candidate who can beat him. I do think Romney can beat him but if the tea partiers get their way, a more extreme candidate will get nominated. Romney is a flip flopper but I think he is flipping to get the republican nomination. I think he is actually much closer to center on a lot of issues and I think he might make a good President.

[Mungwater 597]

I think he'll be OK given who he'd run against.

 

The biggest question is can the dems hold the majority in the senate. The president can be whoever it is, but I would prefer a dem president if we have a repub senate and vice versa.

[MDC 7,590]

I think Obama's chances of winning re-election are pretty good. He's gotten a lot of leeway on the economy because the recession started before he came into office. Obama also gets graded on a serious curve because the last guy was so horrible. And the field of GOP candidates is so weak. I agree with you that someone like Romney or Pawlenty is probably the party's best shot and I'd consider voting for either of them. But then you're looking at a candidate who's seriously short on charisma and doesn't excite the GOP base, so even the best case scenario for the party isn't very strong.

 

Who else is out there who can win the GOP primary and a general election? It's really slim pickings.

 

ETA: I think the GOP takes over the Senate pretty handily.

[Recliner Pilot 61]

Obama also gets graded on a serious curve because the last guy was so horrible.

 

 

"Bush is bad" worked in '08. Not gonna work in '12. Your hero actually has a record to judge this time around, not just the "Hope and Change" bumper sticker you clowns fell for. Some will fall for it again, but many will actually look at what a train wreck Obama has been as POTUS and either stay home or vote against him.

[MDC 7,590]

"Bush is bad" worked in '08. Not gonna work in '12. Your hero actually has a record to judge this time around, not just the "Hope and Change" bumper sticker you clowns fell for. Some will fall for it again, but many will actually look at what a train wreck Obama has been as POTUS and either stay home or vote against him.

 

So true, there's absolutely no way Obama wins re-election.

[Strike 5,748]

I think Obama's chances of winning re-election are pretty good. He's gotten a lot of leeway on the economy because the recession started before he came into office. Obama also gets graded on a serious curve because the last guy was so horrible. And the field of GOP candidates is so weak. I agree with you that someone like Romney or Pawlenty is probably the party's best shot and I'd consider voting for either of them. But then you're looking at a candidate who's seriously short on charisma and doesn't excite the GOP base, so even the best case scenario for the party isn't very strong.

 

Who else is out there who can win the GOP primary and a general election? It's really slim pickings.

 

ETA: I think the GOP takes over the Senate pretty handily.

 

LOL. All of those things Obama bitched about with Bush - Guantanamo Bay, getting the troops out of Iraq, the Patriot act, Tax cuts....Let's see, how many has he followed through on his campaign promises to reverse? Oh, right. None. God you look stupid when you post sh*t like that.

[MDC 7,590]

LOL. All of those things Obama bitched about with Bush - Guantanamo Bay, getting the troops out of Iraq, the Patriot act, Tax cuts....Let's see, how many has he followed through on his campaign promises to reverse? Oh, right. None. God you look stupid when you post sh*t like that.

 

You're right Strike - it's all Obama's fault. So naturally voters are going to turn on him and he'll be ousted in 2012 ... right? Right???

[Strike 5,748]

You're right Strike - it's all Obama's fault. So naturally voters are going to turn on him and he'll be ousted in 2012 ... right? Right???

 

I dunno about that. We'll see who the GOP nominates. So far I'm not excited about any of the candidates who've announced they're running. Seems like some may be waiting until 2016. That doesn't change the fact that most of Bush's policies that idiots like you and Obama whined about while Bush was in office and Obama campaigned about changing are still in place two and a half years later. So, bitching about Bush starts to sound hollow, partisan, and stupid at that point.

[MDC 7,590]

I dunno about that. We'll see who the GOP nominates. So far I'm not excited about any of the candidates who've announced they're running. Seems like some may be waiting until 2016. That doesn't change the fact that most of Bush's policies that idiots like you and Obama whined about while Bush was in office and Obama campaigned about changing are still in place two and a half years later. So, bitching about Bush starts to sound hollow, partisan, and stupid at that point.

 

Whoa there tiger! Why don't you a few deep breaths, relax and re-read my post. I didn't say that Obama doesn't take any blame for the policies he's enacted since in office - he does. I said he gets graded on a curve because the last guy was so horrible; i.e. voters realize the situation Obama inherited was impossible. I said nothing about whether that's right or wrong and wasn't b1tching about Bush or anyone else.

 

Hope you feel calmer and better now.

[Strike 5,748]

Whoa there tiger! Why don't you a few deep breaths, relax and re-read my post. I didn't say that Obama doesn't take any blame for the policies he's enacted since in office - he does. I said he gets graded on a curve because the last guy was so horrible; i.e. voters realize the situation Obama inherited was impossible. I said nothing about whether that's right or wrong and wasn't b1tching about Bush or anyone else.

 

Hope you feel calmer and better now.

 

Uh huh. Then you're wrong. He doesn't get a curve. He's had some pretty horrible approval ratings since being in office. Many of those who supported him have left, especially the idealistic college kids. He's even lost support of many blacks since he, you know, didn't end up paying their mortgages and stuff. So either way you look dumb.

[KSB2424 3,148]

I'll bookmark this thread and give an answer one year from now. 06/02/12. It's simply to early to tell right now. Hell, in June of 2007 I had no idea who in the hell Barrack Hussien Obama was. See my point.

[NewbieJr 541]

"Bush is bad" worked in '08. Not gonna work in '12. Your hero actually has a record to judge this time around, not just the "Hope and Change" bumper sticker you clowns fell for. Some will fall for it again, but many will actually look at what a train wreck Obama has been as POTUS and either stay home or vote against him.

Saved for possible future sig.

[MDC 7,590]

Uh huh. Then you're wrong. He doesn't get a curve. He's had some pretty horrible approval ratings since being in office. Many of those who supported him have left, especially the idealistic college kids. He's even lost support of many blacks since he, you know, didn't end up paying their mortgages and stuff. So either way you look dumb.

 

Obama's approval rating averages 51.8% vs. 44.4% according to Real Clear Politics -> Link. He's polling even better according to Fox News. Given the state of the economy those numbers are terrific.

 

His approval rating among African Americans dropped to 85% this year -> Link.

 

And according to Rassmussen, likely voters (54% to 39%) blame Bush more than Obama for the current state of the economy -> Link.

 

[DankNuggs 305]

I'd give obama a 60% chance of reelection at this point... It will be tough for him to improve economic #'s in the run up because his election is a confirmation that we aren't going to tackle the debt problem for another 4 years, wall street would be incorporating that lack of confidence in the market.

 

 

it should be interesting.

[Voice_Of_Reason 0]

The question of electability really comes down to the independant vote and voter base show up. Will the dems come out in droves to support O? Will the independant vote sway with the dems this election? Those are the 2 questions to ask.

[Strike 5,748]

Obama's approval rating averages 51.8% vs. 44.4% according to Real Clear Politics -> Link. He's polling even better according to Fox News. Given the state of the economy those numbers are terrific.

 

His approval rating among African Americans dropped to 85% this year -> Link.

 

And according to Rassmussen, likely voters (54% to 39%) blame Bush more than Obama for the current state of the economy -> Link.

 

 

Rasmussen has the most accurate polls. I'd rather look at his, as you did above. And, according to him, Obama is vulnerable:

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/election_2012_generic_presidential_ballot

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

 

As far as the Blacks go, of course Obama is going to have a high approval rating. He's black. The question is whether they come out to vote or not. And that's not something we'll know until next year.

[Recliner Pilot 61]

Saved for possible future sig.

 

Why? You don't think Obama will need to run on his stellar record to get elected? You think another bumper sticker slogan will get all you Obamabots back to the voting booth again?

 

I don't. I think if he wants to get reelected he will need something substantive to his campaign this time around. I guess if he comes up with "Hope and Change 2.0" and he is reelected you may have a sig line.

[MDC 7,590]

Rasmussen has the most accurate polls. I'd rather look at his, as you did above. And, according to him, Obama is vulnerable:

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/election_2012_generic_presidential_ballot

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

 

As far as the Blacks go, of course Obama is going to have a high approval rating. He's black. The question is whether they come out to vote or not. And that's not something we'll know until next year.

 

I never said Obama wasn't vulnerable - he could lose, sure. I said his chances of re-election though are pretty good. I'd put him at about 60% right now. You probably know that generic candidates tend to poll better than actual candidates. At some point the GOP is going to have to settle on a Newt, Romney, Palin, etc. and that person will bring all kinds of baggage and electability issues. The GOP field is extremely weak, that's why I think Obama has a chance.

 

BTW, you took a lot of offense to my claim that Obama gets graded on a curve by voters because of how bad the last guy was. What do you make of my poll, where most voters blame Bush for the economy as of May 2011? Seems to me you were wrong. I look forward to your apology.

[Mungwater 597]

What you have to watch for is how much money he'll be able to raise, word is that we will see a billion dollar campaign this time around.

 

He should win, but it won't be as easy as last time

[NewbieJr 541]

What you have to watch for is how much money he'll be able to raise, word is that we will see a billion dollar campaign this time around.

 

He should win, but it won't be as easy as last time

Don't be surprised if he spends some of that money campaigning for Palin in the primaries. That would be more well-spent than any ads he could place for himself.

[Recliner Pilot 61]

Don't be surprised if he spends some of that money campaigning for Palin in the primaries. That would be more well-spent than any ads he could place for himself.

 

No kidding. One 15 second commercial is plenty of time for Obama to list all the positive things he has done since elected. :overhead:

[Strike 5,748]

I never said Obama wasn't vulnerable - he could lose, sure. I said his chances of re-election though are pretty good. I'd put him at about 60% right now. You probably know that generic candidates tend to poll better than actual candidates. At some point the GOP is going to have to settle on a Newt, Romney, Palin, etc. and that person will bring all kinds of baggage and electability issues. The GOP field is extremely weak, that's why I think Obama has a chance.

 

BTW, you took a lot of offense to my claim that Obama gets graded on a curve by voters because of how bad the last guy was. What do you make of my poll, where most voters blame Bush for the economy as of May 2011? Seems to me you were wrong. I look forward to your apology.

 

The article doesn't say what you say it does. The people you say "blame Bush" actually say that they blame the recession that started while he was President. It doesn't say they blame Bush or his policies specifically. It is possible that some people just think he was the President when it happened but not specifically to blame, like 9/11. On the other hand, the 39% who fault Obama actually fault Obama. It's a distionction. I'd love to actually see the questions to get some clarification on how significant the distinction is but I'm not a platinum member. Hopefully you are and can post the questions.

[Mungwater 597]

Don't be surprised if he spends some of that money campaigning for Palin in the primaries. That would be more well-spent than any ads he could place for himself.

 

Good point, all he has to do for an ad is show the republican candidate and just point and say "really?" over and over.

[MDC 7,590]

The article doesn't say what you say it does. The people you say "blame Bush" actually say that they blame the recession that started while he was President. It doesn't say they blame Bush or his policies specifically. It is possible that some people just think he was the President when it happened but not specifically to blame, like 9/11. On the other hand, the 39% who fault Obama actually fault Obama. It's a distionction. I'd love to actually see the questions to get some clarification on how significant the distinction is but I'm not a platinum member. Hopefully you are and can post the questions.

 

So Obama doesn't get graded on a curve by voters because of the terrible situation he inherited from Bush, that's what you're saying?

 

Amazing: Obama is the worst president in history and responsible for everything bad that's happening in the world ... and yet he's probably going to win re-election.

 

Go figure.

[Phurfur 70]

$1 billion campaign fund + left wing sheep + National Media = 4 more years of broken promises and more money for me.

 

Keep the entitlements coming Barry.

[MDC 7,590]

$1 billion campaign fund + left wing sheep + National Media = 4 more years of broken promises and more money for me.

 

Keep the entitlements coming Barry.

 

You're right, these advantages are so great that no candidate no matter how awesome could overcome them ...

[mobb_deep 920]

I think he'll be OK given who he'd run against.

 

The biggest question is can the dems hold the majority in the senate. The president can be whoever it is, but I would prefer a dem president if we have a repub senate and vice versa.

 

I agree. I don't currently see a candidate who can beat him. They're all weaker opponents than old man McCain and he got his arse kicked.

 

I also agree that there needs to be majority representation from the other party in one of the chambers. Checks and balances.

[Phurfur 70]

What you have to watch for is how much money he'll be able to raise, word is that we will see a billion dollar campaign this time around.

 

He should win, but it won't be as easy as last time

 

$1 billion will be easy now that people see what their ROI will be.

[NewbieJr 541]

$1 billion campaign fund + left wing sheep + National Media = 4 more years of broken promises and more money for me.

 

Keep the entitlements coming Barry.

Geez, the left has always represented free money foir it's masses. And the media has always been slanted that way. How the hell did these recent Republican Presidents ever get elected??? What a mystery.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

Geez, the left has always represented free money foir it's masses. And the media has always been slanted that way. How the hell did these recent Republican Presidents ever get elected??? What a mystery.

 

This is a misleading suggestion. Most of "the masses" who receive "free money" don't vote anyway. Both parties try to use fear and whatnot to get their people to the polls (See "Save your marriage from the phags in the 2004 election).

 

It is way too soon to tell what will happen. If a terrorist hit happens in the next year or so... that will help Republicans (why i don't know, but it will). If the economy improves, Obama is a lock... if it explodes, he is done.

[MDC 7,590]

What's really baffling is that Bomama is going to raise taxes and enact all kinds of cumbersome business-killing policies ... and yet he's also successfully bribed big business into giving him so much cash that he can't possibly be beat!

 

This guy is like Doctor Doom come to life.

 

Obummer.

[DankNuggs 305]

What's really baffling is that Bomama is going to raise taxes and enact all kinds of cumbersome business-killing policies ... and yet he's also successfully bribed big business into giving him so much cash that he can't possibly be beat!

 

This guy is like Doctor Doom come to life.

 

Obummer.

50% of the population pays no federal income tax....

 

 

GE is the new Goldman Sach of government privilege. All these green energy economy 'grants' (read handouts) make GE and companies like it a willing friend and donor.

[MDC 7,590]

50% of the population pays no federal income tax....

 

That must be due to the diabolical Bomama's continuation of the Bush tax cuts! The man's an evil genius I tell you.

 

Obummer.

[Phurfur 70]

That must be due to the diabolical Bomama's continuation of the Bush tax cuts! The man's an evil genius I tell you.

 

Obummer.

 

They are no longer the Bush tax cuts, they are the Obama tax cuts.

 

This is the Obama plan to reduce unemployment:

 

Starting 1-1-11 a baby boomer will retire every 10 seconds for the next 20 years. 76 million of them.

[MDC 7,590]

They are no longer the Bush tax cuts, they are the Obama tax cuts.

 

And Obummer is somehow now responsible for the fact that 50% of people pay no federal income taxes? He did this?

 

I thought he raised taxes?

[Phurfur 70]

And Obummer is somehow now responsible for the fact that 50% of people pay no federal income taxes? He did this?

 

I thought he raised taxes?

 

Where did someone say this is BHO's fault?

[DankNuggs 305]

Where did someone say this is BHO's fault?

Its like arguing with a retahd...

[MDC 7,590]

Where did someone say this is BHO's fault?

 

I thought that was Dank's point? Really I can't tell what you ladies are trying to say. All I hear is "Obaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaamaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!"

[DankNuggs 305]

I thought that was Dank's point? Really I can't tell what you ladies are trying to say. All I hear is "Obaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaamaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!"

my point was that the 50+% of people who take more than they pay are going to be heavily attracted to our President Carnival Barker offering up free pop tarts...

 

 

That Ben Franklin quote that once people figure out how to vote themselves money, thats the end of the republic...